VI du, Hdi nghi ThQdng dinh Nam My nam 2002 didn ra trong khdng khi u dm cua cudc bau cti gian lan do Tdng thd'ng Alberto Fujimori d Peru s i p dat trUdc di'y, mpt cupc bau cii m [r]
Trang 1CHINH TRi - LUAT
Vj THE VA VAI TRO HIEN NAY CUA BRAZIL
6 TAY BAN CAU
May nam gin day, phUdng
tien thdng tin dai chung the
gidi thudng de cap den cac
qud'e gia gpi Id BRIC, mpt tQ ngQ ghep
bang nhQng chQ d i u ctia ten bd'n nUdc
cd nen kinh te mdi ndi Id Brazil, Nga,
An Dp v i Trung Qud'e (Brazil, Russia,
India and China), Tuy nhien, nhieu
ngUdi dat cdu hdi lieu Brazil cd phii
la mdt BRIC khdng O d i u the ky
XXI, Brazil cd k h i nang vat chat de
dUdc coi la mdt nQde ldn "ting thQ
hai", tQPng tii nhQ P h i p vd Italia hien
nay Ldi khang dinh nay thoat dau cd
ve thieu cd sd vi Brazil chang phii l i
mpt cUdng qud'c quan sQ, khdng so
sanh dQdc vdi cdc nQdc ldn d Tay Au
hay cae BRIC khac Ve chi phi quin
sii, Brazil ehi dQdc xep vao hai chuc
nude hang diu Khoang 13,4 ty ddla
sti dung cho qudn sQ nam 2006 dat
Brazil ngang hang vdi Australia,
Canada, Tay Ban Nha, va Israel,
khdng bing Han Qud'c, An Dp, Italia,
Nga, va DQc, mdi nQdc chi phi tQ 20
de'n 30 ty ddla trong nam ndy Brazil
kem xa Nhat Bin, Trung Qud'e, Phip,
vd Anh, mdi nUdc to'n kem tQ 40 tdi 50
ty ddla cho qudn dpi, dac biet Hoa Ky
chi phi 528,7 ty ddla nam 2006
Di nhien Brazil khdng cd ly do de
xay diing mdt quan dpi ldn, vi nQdc dd
thQa sQc khd'ng ehe luc dia va vung
lan can Ve quan sQ, Brazil manh gap
ba lin Colombia, gap bd'n lin Mexico,
Do Trong Quang gap bay l i n Venezuela hay Argentina May man ve phQdng dien dia-chien iQpc, Brazil khdng ed chien tranh vdi cdc lang gieng trong hdn mdt the ky, quan dpi Brazil khdng dinh hu vao mdt cudc npi chien nao nhU d Colombia Hanh ddng quan sii dang
ke cuol cung ciia liic qudn va hai quan Brazil dQpc thtic hien trong Chien tranh the gidi thQ hai, khi nQdc nay phai mpt sQ doan de'n Italia va eung cap cho cac qud'c gia Ddng minh can
cQ khdng quan va tau ngim
Brazil cung cd trinh dp edng nghe kha eao, nhUng dQt khodt tQ bd vu khi hat nhan, tuy cd k h i nang s i n xuat vat lieu de che tao thQ vu khi tan pha khung khiep nay Mdt uy ban dieu tra eua qud'c hdi bao cdo ndm 1990 rang, khdng qudn Brazil trong thdi gian cim quyen cua chinh phu quan sU da thiet, ke hai q u i bem nguyen tti NhQng chQdng trinh hat nhan bl mat cua Brazil, va viec qud'c gia dd tQ chdi
ky Hiep Qdc khdng Phd bien Vu khi Hat nhan (NPT) nhQng nam 1970 va
1980, chti yeu Id de ran de nQdc Argentina lang gieng, cung nhu de phti nhan ddc quyen sd hQu vu khi hat nhan eiia b i t cQ nQdc ndo
D i u nhQng nam 80, Brazil va Argentina t i i lap che dp dan chu, ehi'nh phii hai nUdc hdp tic vdi nhau mat thiet hdn ve chinh tri v i kinh te,
ky ket mpt loat hiep Qdc kiem soat vu
Trang 2khi song phUdng Nam 1988, Brazil
dUa mdt dieu khoan vdo hie'n phap
dan chti mdi ciia minh, quy dinh
khdng bao gid che tao vu khi hat
nhan Cuol thap ky dd, Brazil va
Argentina deu md ciia cic cd sd nang
lupng hat nhan de thanh s i t lan
nhau Thang 9/1990, Tong thdng
Fernando Collor tii tay chup i n h canh
xuc da't chdn lap mpt ehd thii nghiem
hat nhan, tQdng trQng cho viec kien
quyet tQ bd chQdng trinh hat nhan
Sau day, nUdc n i y ky ta't ca cac hiep
udc qud'c te kiem soit vu khi
Mdt dieu kien quan trpng hdn de
dupe coi la mpt nQdc ldn mdi ndi Id quy
md ciia nen kinh te, ma nhieu nha ly
luan xem la da'u hieu td't nha't ve sQc
manh TQ nam 2006, Brazil la mpt
trong 10 nen kinh te'ldn nhat, nhQ vay
trien vpng tang trQdng trong tQdng lai
la dieu cin thiet de d i n h gia Brazil
lieu ed nam treng so' eae nQdc ldn mdi
ndi khdng Brazil cd da p h i t trien
nhanh nhat gan lien vdi cdng nghiep
hda tQ nhQng nam giQa 1940 den
nhQng ndm giQa 1970, khi ma td'e dp
tang trQdng dat trung binh 7,4% mdi
nam Dae biet trong nhQng nam gpi la
t h i n ky tQ 1968 tdi 1973, tdng s i n
pham xa hdi (GDP) phdt trien vdi mpt
td'e dp phi thQPng, hang nam trung
binh 10,59%) NhQng tang trQdng tQ
nam 1974 den eudl the ky XX tQdng
ddi thip, trung binh 3,7%o TQ ndm
2000 den 2006, Ngan hang The gidi
bae cio tang trQdng GDP ctia nUdc n i y
tren 3% mdt chut, tha'p hdn nhieu
nude lang gieng gan nhi't, ke ca Chile,
va tQ nam 2004 tha'p hdn Argentina
Mac du thanh tQu cdn be nhd trong
nhQng nam gin day, nhQng so sanh
kinh te giQa Brazil vdi cac nQdc BRIC
khac khdng nen chi nhin gia tri be
ngodi It tai lieu ctia Brazil d i m doin
trudc tUdng lai, vi nhieu dti dodn cd
the n h i m ldn Mac du vay, cd the dii bio rang Brazil se tdng trQdng deu dan 3,5% hoac hdn nQa trong nhQng thap ky tdi, tuy dieu do cdn phu thudc chinh sach kinh te vi mo cua chinh phti va mpt mdi trQdng qud'c te tQdng ddi thuan ldi Ne'u tang trUdng d mQc nay, thi Brazil cd the hy vpng nam trong so' sdu hay bay nen kinh te ldn nha't vao giQa the ky XXI Dieu dd lam mpi ngQdi ngac nhien, vi nen kinh te cdng nghiep nao cung chang the p h i t trien nhanh den the Neu quy md kinh te vd mot cd sd cdng nghiep vQng chae l i nhQng tieu chi quan trpng nha't ctia kha nang vat chat, thi nQdc nay trong nhQng thap
ky tdi khdng phai chi la mpt cQdng qud'c khu vtic NhQ vay, Brazil theo tieu chi khaeh quan la mpt trong cae nQdc BRIC
Mpt ly do de ndi r i n g Brazil khdng
de dQdc Cdi nhQ mpt BRIC la d chd, Brazil ndi len h i u nhQ khdng bi London, Paris, Berlin, hay Tokyo coi
Id mdi de dpa Khdng gid'ng Trung Qud'c, Nga, hay tham chi An Dp, qud'c gia nay Id mpt nQdc phQdng Tay, chic chin lien minh vdi Hoa Ky va Tay Au Tuy dia ly chdng hoan toan quyet dinh each liia chpn chie'n lUdc cua mpt nQdc, nhQ trQdng hdp Cuba vd, gin day hdn, thai dp cua Td'ng thd'ng Hugo Chavez d Venezuela ddi vdi Iran, Bielorussia, vd Nga, nhUng nd v i n ban che nhQng cdch liia chpn dd La mpt qudc gia cd chung nen van hda va cic gia tri vdi phUdng Tay, Brazil la nudc duy nhi't trong cac BRIC n i m d pham vi anh hQdng ciia My
Tuy vay, chinh sach ddi ngoai ctia Brazil trong nhieu thap ky chti yeu l i
ve quan he thQdng mai chQ khdng phai cdc van de an ninh Monica Herz, mdt nha nghien cQu ctia Brazil
ve quan he qud'c te, nhan xet r i n g
Trang 3"chi'nh sach ddi ngoai va chinh sich
quo'c phdng tdch rdi nhau d Brazil, va
ddy la mpt moi quan tam ddi vdi quan
dpi vd nhieu linh viic khac"
Lien minh lau ddi vdi Hoa Ky la
s i n pham ctia ca lich sii l i n dia ly La
thudc dia cu eua Bd Ddo Nha, tQng
giQ vai trd trung tam chmh tri cua de
che dang suy tan dd tQ nam 1808 den
1821 trQdc khi gidnh dQpc dpe lap
nam 1822, Brazil xua't hien vao nam
1889 nhu nQde cpng hda ldn nhat the
gidi, bao gdm hdn mpt niia lanh thd
Nam My Quan dpi tuyen bd' t h i n h
lap nQde cpng hda da ket thuc mpt
nen qudn chii lap hien tQng phdt Id
cupc cich mang cdng nghiep vd eai
quan mdt he thd'ng kinh te diia tren
che dp no le, md di san cdn dQdc thay
de'n nay d tinh trang bat binh dang
kinh te va xa hdi Luc dd cung nhQ
bay gid, cic n h i lanh dao Brazil coi ldi
ich qud'e gia ciia hp phQ hpp vdi Ipi ich
ctia Hoa Ky, lay qud'c hieu diu tien Id
"Hdp chung qudc Brazil"
Jose Maria da Silva Paranhos, nha
ngoai giao ldi lac ciia Brazil trong
nhQng thap ky cuol ciia chinh the
quan chii, ngoai trQdng nQdc dd tQ
nam 1902 tdi 1912, vd la ngQdi sang
lap doan ngoai giao hien dai d i u tien
ctia Brazil, da edng nhan r i t sdm sU
xua't hien cua Hoa Ky nhQ mdt cQdng
qud'c the gidi Vi Ipi ich ctia Brazil
trong viec ehd'ng i n h hQPng Anh tai
Nam My, dac biet d iQu vile River
Plate, dng chuyen hUdng trtic ddi
ngoai ctia Brazil tQ London sang
Washington Chinh phu Brazil dQdc
Hoa Ky hau thuan tich ciic trong cic
trQdng hdp he trpng, nhQ vai trd trpng
tai ciia Td'ng thd'ng Hoa Ky Grover
Cleveland trong cupc tranh chap vdi
Argentina, v i sQ ting hp ngim trong
cae trQdng hpp khic Viec giii quyet
van de vQng dat Acre vdi Bolivia nam
1903, nhQng cudc tranh chap lanh thd vdi cic nQde ling gieng deu dUde xti ly bing bien phap ngoai giao cd ldi cho Brazil Trong the ky sau, each nhin ctia Jose da Silva Paranhos ve quan
he vdi Hoa Ky da dQde d i n h gia cao Tuy vay, quan he vdi Hoa Ky khdng phii khdng cd nhQng thdi ky cang thing, trdng dd cic nhd lanh dao Brazil da kheo leo chdi con bai chau
Au, thUdng la DQc Mpt giai doan nhQ the dien ra trong nhQng nam 1940, lue Tong thd'ng Getulio Vargas thUdng iQdng vdi c i qud'c xa DQc va Hoa Ky
de xem ben nao cho minh nhieu cii Ipi hdn doi lay cin cQ quan sti Sau chien tranh, Tdng thd'ng Harry Truman eiia Hoa Ky thiic hien ldi ctia ed' Tdng thd'ng Roosevelt hQa giup hoan thanh xay diing mpt nha miy luyen thep d Vdlta Redonda va vien trd ky thuat de vach ke hoach phat trien cdng nghiep tdng hpp dau tien NhUng Brazil da that vpng khi trdng chd Hoa Ky diu
tu d at sau chien tranh Mac dQ Chinh phti Hoa Ky ung hd cudc dao chinh dUa quan dpi Brazil len cim quyen nam 1964, nhUng quyen ldi khac biet giQa hai nQdc ching may chdc da ddn den va cham
NhQng nam d i u 1970, Hoa Ky giQp Brazil xay diing nha may dien hat nhan d i u tien, nhUng cac n h i lanh dao luc a'y ctia nQde nay biic tQc vi Hoa Ky ddi kiem tra va thanh sat nen quay sang Tay DQc Di nhien Brazil
cd mdt chQdng trinh vu khi bi mat, nham de ran de va eting cd' sQc manh (ed le chia vao Argentina) hdn la that
sQ p h i t trie'n vu khi Sau khi lap lai che dp dan chii nam 1985 va sau khi hien p h i p Brazil nam 1988 dQt khoat cam vu khi hat nhan, Qudc hdi Hoa
Ky phdt dpng mpt cupc dieu tra chUPng trinh hat nhdn bi mat ciia nQdc ndy khien ngQdi Brazil phan no
Trang 4Gin day hdn, quan he giQa hai nQdc
cang thdng ve thQdng mai, nhQng
Brazil thay hdp tac vdi Hoa Ky, mdt
nQdc ldng gieng cd chung gii tri dan
chii vdi minh, van la mdt nen t i n g
ctia chi'nh sdch ddi ngoai
cac sing kien ngoai giao tieh ciic
n h i t cua Brazil trong hdn hai thap ky
tQ nam 1985 dQdc thiic hien n h i m
miic dich tac ddng tdi cac che dp
thQdng mai va d i u tU trtlc tie'p ctia
khu vQc, cua Tay ban ciu va todn ciu
chdng cheo nhau That ra, do h i u nbU
khdng hi de dpa ve an ninh tQ ben
ngoai, nen chinh sach ddi ngoai ctia
Brazil chii yeu la ve budn ban Uu
tien ciia nQdc ndy la md rdng
MERCOSUR (Thi trQdng chung Nam
My) den ta't ca Nam My, treng khi
Hoa Ky mud'n md rpng NAFTA (Hiep
Udc tu do thQdng mai Bie My, bao
gdm Canada, Hoa Ky, v i Mexico) qua
mpt hiep Qdc toan bdn ciu dUdc gpi l i
FTAA (Khu viic ty do thUdng mai
chau My)
Xung dot quyen ldi giQa
MERCOSUR va FTAA la cd sd ctia
eanh tranh chinh tri ve ndi budn ban
Hoa Ky la mpt nUdc hau edng nghiep
cd kha nang canh tranh cao d dich vii
tai ehi'nh va nhQng khu vQc tQdng tii,
nhQng khdng the canh tranh ve ndng
sin va cac khu vQc s i n xua't ein
nhieu lao dpng trong khi Brazil Id
nQdc dang phat trien cd thu nhap
t h i p hdn Brazil phan ddi e i cac hang
rao budn ban ndng s i n l i n viec b i t
budc thi hanh nhQng bien p h i p khic
NhQng tQ cuol nhQng n i m 90,
Venezuela sung tuc vdi gii dau cao,
ndi len nhQ mpt nQdc canh tranh vdi
quyen lanh dao ctia Brazil d Nam My,
da lim diu bdt nhQng bat ddng giQa
Brazil vdi Hoa Ky
Trong nhQng nam 80, trong khi
Tdng thdng Jose Sarney ctia Brazil va
Tdng thd'ng Raul Alfonsin ciia Argentina tap trung chinh sdch ddi ndi vdo viec thie't lap quyen kiem soit cua dan sti ddi vdi quan dpi va the che hda budc qua dp chi'nh tri ciia qud'c gia, thi chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia hp da dQa quan he tQdng t i c song phQdng vdo quy tac Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, va Paraguay b i t diu thUdng iQdng ve mot thi trQdng chung khu vQc (thQdng mai tti do trong ndi
bd v i thue x u i t nhap k h i u chung) dupe chinb thQc gpi l i MERCOSUR nam 1991 Mac du c h i n g cd ddi hdi cap thie't nao ve kinh te de hdi nhap, nhQng khu viic tti do thQdng mai da la mpt thanh cdng ve chi'nh tri va kinh
te Nd giup Brazil va Argentina hoan thanh bQdc qua dp tQ sti thd'ng tri eiia quan dpi sang dan sti, va tin cay lin nhau de cd the ddng thdi xay dting cd che kiem tra vu khi hat nhan ciia nhau S Q hda giii chinh tri tao dieu kien phi quan sti hda bien gidi hai nQdc, cho phep Brazil di chuyen phQdng tien quan sQ tdi vung iQu viic Amazon MERCOSUR cung giup bio dam dn dinh chinh tri d Paraguay
Chie'n iQdc kinh te va chinh tri
ciia Brazil •„
I 7 • ,
Cudi nam 1992, Tong thd'ng Fernando Collor de Mello, vi nguyen thii dan cii dau tien ciia Brazil, tQ chQc
de tranh hi xet xii ve tpi tham nhung
Tuy ket thuc nhiem ky mdt cdch nhuc nha, nhQng dng Collor dd b i t diu qua trinh cai cich kinh te, ke ci tU do hda thQdng mai MERCOSUR dQdc xem Id mpt thanh cdng ldn trong vung Khi Tdng thd'ng Fernando Henrique Cardoso len nham chQc, dng cd' ging gidi thieu vdi the gidi mot nUdc Brazil
dn dinh va dan chti Muc tieu trUdc mit ctia dng Id lay lai long tin ciia qud'c te
da bi mat d hai lan hoan tra nd trong
Trang 5nhQng nam 1980, nan lam phat cao, va
cudc khung hoing chinh tri da bupc
Collor tQ chQc Cardoso cd khii niem ve
Nam My nhQ mot thiic the dia-chlnh
tri va dia-kinh te, muc tieu ro ret d dti
an Nam My ctia dng la xac dinh khu
vQc i n h hQdng cua Brazil, khic vdi
Trung va Bic My do Hoa Ky khd'ng
che Theo hudng ndy, sang kie'n dQpc
dQa ra nham giam i n h hQdng cua Hoa
Ky trong vung, va tao kha nang de
MERCOSUR md rpng sau nay
Hoa Ky cQng cd mpt cdch nhin ve td
chQc hdi nhap kinh te va chinh tri tai
Nam My, nhQng treng mpt Tay ban
eau thdng nhat, va dl nhien vdi nhQng
the che do Hoa Ky khd'ng che Nam
1995, Mexico v i nhieu nQdc hi mdt
cpn hoang loan tdi chi'nh gpi la cupc
khiing hoang ddng peso, nhQng Hoa
Ky van md dau qua trinh FTAA bing
cupc hpp thQdng dinh thang 12/1994
ciia chau My tai Miami Nam sau, Td
chQc ThQdng mai The gidi (WTO) md
ciia, rdi trdng nhQng nam eudl 1990,
chdu My Latinh lai trai qua nhQng
cudc khiing hoing ve ti gii hdi dodi,
tin dung v i tang trQdng gan lien vdi
eae vu khiing being tdi chi'nh chau A
va Nga Do day, nhQng nam 1990 it cd
tien bd ve hdi nhap kinh te, du d lue
dia hay trong ban ciu
Thang 9/2000, Brazil trieu tap hdi
nghi thupng dinh d i u tien cdc tdng
thd'ng Nam My d Brasilia, lap mpt
ChUdng trinh Hdi nhap Ha t i n g Cd sd
d vung Nam My (URSA), dUdc tinh
toin de xuc tien viec xay dting cic xa
Id v i d'ng ddn d i u mdi, t i t nhien cd ldi
cho Brazil, nha't l i trong linh vtic
nang iQdng ChQdng trinh dd cung la
mpt cii vd chinh tri che gid'u sQ khing
dinh quyen lanh dao ciia Brazil bang
each sii dung de tai hpi nhap kinh te
NgQdi ke nhiem dng Cardoso, Td'ng
thd'ng Lula da Silva, la nguyen thti
d i u tien ciia Brazil x u i t than tQ dang Cdng nhdn khuynh t i Ong nha'n manh sQ chu trpng ctia ngQdi tien nhiem vao viec p h i t trien quan he mat thiet vdi cic nQdc lang gieng gan gui tai Nam My NhUng mdi hai t u i n
le sau khi len cim quyen, vi tdng thd'ng mdi da dung chuye'n cdng du
d i u tien cua minh ra nUde ngoai de tuyen bd' sti lanh dao ctia Brazil trong vung Rat gid'ng ngUdi tien nhiem, Lula danh gia qud cae kha nang minh
cd the kiem che Tdng thd'ng Hugo Chavez ctia Venezuela Sil tinh toan sai lam dd da gdp p h i n vao quyet dinh ciia Brazil mdi Venezuela gia nhap MERCOSUR Vi tdng thong cd
uy tin ctia Venezuela khdng de chap nhan nguyen vpng ciia Brazil mud'n lanh dao khu vQc Vai trd Chavez trong viec Bolivia quyet dinh qud'c hQu hda ngdnh cdng nghiep diu khi thing 5/2006, ke ca cic khoin diu tU triic tiep d nQdc ngodi ctia tap doan nang iQdng Petrobas d Brazil, khien nhieu ngQdi Brazil tin r i n g muc tieu cdng kich ctia nha lanh dao Venezuela
la Brazil chQ khdng phai Hoa Ky Trong khi dd, c i Brazil vd Hoa Ky deu thtic hien chQdng trinh budn bdn ctia minh trong WTO Thang 11/2001, hai nUdc thUdng iQdng thanh cdng mpt hiep Qdc, nha't tri rang Brazil se ling hp vdng dam p h i n Doha ve tQ do hda thQdng mai trong WTO, de ddi lay viee tai WTO Hoa Ky khdng phan ddi luat ciia Brazil ddi hdi cac thQ thud'c dupe dac quyen s i n xuat trong trUdng hpp khan cap p h i i cd giiy phep Trong nhQng t u i n le eudl cung cim quyen, chinh quyen Cardoso phti
n h i n tinh hdp p h i p trong cic khoan trp ci'p ciia Hoa Ky vd Lien minh chau Au (EU) cho dudng va bdng Sau day, Brazil, Nam Phi, va An Dp cung nhau lap ra nhdm G-20, thuc day vdng dam phan Doha tap trung vao
Trang 6nhQng van de ma cac nQdc ngheo hdn
quan tam, dac biet viec gianh thi
trUPng cho ndng s i n va eac hang hda
can nhieu lao ddng de s i n xuat
Qua G-20, nhieu nUdc dang phat
trien chti yeu cd k h i nang giQ mpt lap
trQdng tQdng ddi manh doi vdi cac
qud'c gia giiu cd Ngoai ra, cic quo'c
gia trong nhdm G-20 dodn ket vdi
nhau mac du cd nhQng bat ddng ve cd
ciu va quyen ldi kinh te' Vdng dam
phan Doha true trac nam 2003, cd the
vi eac nUde giau khdng mud'n giim trd
cap ndng nghiep Sau di'y, mpt "bp tQ"
mdi gdm Hoa Ky, EU, An Dp, va
Brazil dam nhan viec thao gd be tic,
nhQng eho de'n nay khdng thanh cdng
TQ giQa nam 2007, chii trQdng ctia
FTAA ve thQdng mai Tay b i n ciu ma
Hoa Ky xuc tien van gap trie trd, vi bi
mdt nhdm nUde do Brazil dQng d i u
kien quyet p h i n ddi tai Hdi nghi Bp
trQdng t h i n g 11/2003 d Miami Chinli
phu Hda Ky ben dp dung mpt chien
lupe thUdng iQdng budn b i n song
phQdng khac TQ nam 2003, sau nQdc
Trung My cQng nhQ Cpng hda
Dominica, Peru, v i Colom.bia deu ky
hiep dinh thUdng mai song phQdng vdi
Washington TrQdc day, hiep dinh
thQdng mai song phQdng duy nhi't ciia
Hoa Ky d chau My Latinh la vdi Chile
0 phia ben kia, ke hoach ctia Hugo
Chavez ve hdi nhap liic dia va ban ciu
dan tdi nhieu hpi nghi thupng dinh vd
cic sang kien qud'c te mdi Hugo
Chavez vQa cud'n hut vQa chia re Itic
dia bing de nghi ddng gdp mdt khoin
tien ldn de trd giup mpt Ngin hdng
mien Nam mdi, dQdc cdi la mdt ngan
hang phat trie'n khu vtic cd the thay
the Ngan hang P h i t trien Lien My
(IDB), nhQng khdng cd Hoa Ky tham
gia Cdc nQdc Bolivia, Nicaragua,
Ecuador, v i Argentina deu chip nhan
diu Ilia ctia Venezuela Cpng ddng
kinh doanh Brazil thi ting hd Venezuela gia nhap MERCOSUR, vi
ty gid hdi dodi dang tang ciia Venezuela b i o dain thang dU thUdng mai ldn ciia Brazil vdi Venezuela NhUng ddng thdi, t h i i dp ciia Chavez bat d i u lam nhieu nUdc ling gieng phan no Tuy Tdng thd'ng Lula cd y dinh hda giai, nhQng Qud'c hpi Brazil khdng chiu thong qua tQ cuol ndm
2007 hiep Qdc MERCOSUR mdi, chap nhan Venezuela
Cich nhin dn hda ciia Brazil trQdc het ve hpi nhap luc dia, rdi sau day mdi den hpi nhap b i n ciu, cd the Id ke hoach hdi nhap kinh te My Latinh vdi
cd hpi thanh cdng lau dai td't nha't, tuy budc tie'n bp khdng deu VI du, Hdi nghi ThQdng dinh Nam My nam 2002 didn ra trong khdng khi u dm cua cudc bau cti gian lan do Tdng thd'ng Alberto Fujimori d Peru s i p dat trUdc di'y, mpt cupc bau cii m i To chQc cie nQdc chau My (OAS) khdng the nhat tri ve mdt phan Qng phdi hdp NhQng cudc khiing hoang ve ti gia hdi doai tai Brazil thang 1 nam 1999 vd cuol nam 2002, cung nhQ d Argentina nam 2001-2002, lam cho hpi nhap kinh te khu vQc kem ha'p d i n Mac du ca Brazil va Argentina deu tang trQdng trd lai, nhQng hpi nhap kinh te sau hdn se ddi hdi phai nhQdng l i n nhau nhQng quyen m i hai ben chUa s i n sang ddng y n h i n nhUdng
Trong MERCOSUR hien nay didn
ra tinh hinh rat cang t h i n g giQa Uruguay va Argentina ve hai n h i
m i y gia'y cua Uruguay d con sdng bien gidi giQa hai nQdc Cd sil ngd vQc nhau giQa mpt ben Id Brazil, ben kia
la Bolivia va Venezuela ve viec Bolivia g i n diy qud'c hQu hda md khi dot Chinh quyen ctia Tdng tho'ng Lula thi chia re ve q u i trinh URSA, mpt q u i trinh dQdc cac bp Ke hoach
Trang 7N a n g iQdng va V a n t i i ting hd, nhQng
bi bd Ngoai giao ngd vtic, vi URSA se
cho IDB c u n g c i c cd ddng ctia nd, ke
ca Hoa Ky, giQ vai trd phdi hpp ehinh
Ve phia tich cQc t h i EU, cd p h i n
t r o n g thQPng m a i cua M E R C O S U R
hien nay n g a n g Hoa Ky, dd b i t d i u
coi trpng hdi n h a p k i n h te d N a m My
Nhieu nude N a m My cd ve hoan
n g h e n h each n h i n dn hda ve ehinh t r i
cua Brazil ddi vdi hpp tdc va hpi n h a p
k i n h te ctia N a m My hdn vdi chieu
hudng t u tQdng ctia Venezuela Nhd
boat dpng ctia G-20, i n h hUdng ctia
cac nQdc d a n g p h a t t r i e n t r o n g WTO
da dQdc t a n g cQdng n h i e u Ne'u Brazil
t r i n h l i m cho eae Mng gieng sd hai,
thi t i c ddng k i n h te vd ehinh t r i ciia
nude dd se tiep t u c t a n g
Vai t r o B r a z i l t r o n g v a n d e
n h a n q u y e n v a g i n giQ h o a b i n h
TQ cuol nhQng n a m 1990 trd di, cdc
Qu tien chinh tri qud'c t e mdi, bao gdm
gin giQ hda binh va khd'ng che sQ t h a y
ddi khi b a u , da d i n d i n trd n e n q u a n
trpng hdn Brazil b o a t dpng tich cUe d
ddu thdi ky h a u chie'n, t h a m gia liic
lUdng gin giQ hda binh d i u tien cua
Lien hpp qud'e P k e n h dao Suez va d i i
Gaza t r o n g nhQng n a m 1950 N a m
1965, mpt n a m sau cupc d i o chi'nh
q u a n sti, cac tQdng Hnh mdi c i m
quyen ddng y ddng gdp binh si vao
cupc can t h i e p do Hoa Ky cam d i u P
Cpng hda Dominica S a u day ho ket
luan r a n g sti t h a m gia ctia Brazil
khien nUdc nay cd ve la mot bu n h i n
ciia Hoa Ky, t h a n h r a Brazil thdi dinh
Hu vdo boat dpng qud'c te trong hai
t h a p ky gidi q u a n sti n a m quyen
Trdng khi cac tdng thd'ng d a u tien
ctia Brazil, s a u q u a t r i n h ddn chii hda
giQa nhQng n d m 1980, t a p t r u n g vao
ngoai giao thQdng m a i va tQ bd vu khi
h a t n h a n , t h i C h i n h q u y e n Cardoso d
nhQng n a m eudl 1990 vd nhQng n a m
d i u t h e ky mdi cd' g a n g t a n g cQdng sii
cd m a t vd t i e n g ndi cua Brazil trong cdc cudc t h i o l u a n phi thUdng mai
t r e n vu dai qud'c te Brazil ti'eh ciic
t h a m gia g i i i quyet x u n g dot tai N a m
My, vi du gdp p h d n hda giii Peru v i Ecuador t r o n g cupc chien nhd t h a n g 1
v i t h i n g 2/1995 va n g a n chan mpt cudc d i o ehinh d P a r a g u a y t h d n g 4/1996
TQ day, Brazil da ddng gdp deu dan vdo b o a t dpng gin giQ hda binh, gQi
q u a n s a n g c i cac nQde ndi tieng Bd Ddo N h a l a n cac nQde ndi tieng Anh, den C y p r u s v i v u n g B a l k a n s d chau
Au, den T r u n g My, den Ddng N a m A,
ke ca nUdc Ddng Timor nhd be ndi tieng Bd Dao N h a mdi dpe lap TQ
n a m 1996 den 2003, Brazil giup dd ky
t h u a t de t h i o gd min tai Costa Rica,
G u a t e m a l a , H o n d u r a s , Nicaragua, Ecuador va P e r u , dUdi sU b i o trd cua OAS, G i n day n h i t , Brazil n h a n chi huy mpt liie iQpng q u a n sQ 6.000 ngQdi n i m 2006 dQde giad cho P h a i doan dn dinh hda cua Lien hdp qud'c d Haiti (MINUSTAH) S a u v u ' v i e n chi
h u y ngQdi Brazil cua p h a i dodn tti sat,
M I N U S T A H dupe coi la mot ddng gdp
r i t tich ciic cho viec t a n g cQdng sQ tdn
t r p n g p h a p l u a t va n h a n quyen P Haiti Den cung vdi binh linh Brazil
la n h i e u td chQc phi chinh phti Brazil Cdc cd q u a n chinh phii va dan sti cua Brazil c u n g giQ mot vai trd tich cQc t r o n g c i c td chQc qud'c te vd dien
d a n xuyen qud'c gia ting hp n h a n quyen Di'y la mpt v a n de ma ca hai tdng thd'ng g i n ddy n h i t ciia Brazil hi Cardoso v i L u l a da Silva hieu rd, vi
h a i dng da p h a i ngdi t u v i m a t cac quyen k h a c do b o a t dpng ehinh tri
t r o n g thdi gian c a m quyen ciia chinh phii q u a n sti Vai trd nQde nay trong
Trang 8viec gin giQ hda binh va cac td chQc
nhan quyen qud'c te cdn han che,
nhQng da p h i t trien rat nhanh tQ khi
dat nQdc dan chii hda
Cd le ddng gdp d i n g chu y nha't cua
Brazil la trong Hnh vQc ngan can bien
ddi khi hau qua bao ve mdi trQdng
Nhieu da'u hieu cho thi'y qud'c gia n i y
l i mpt trong cdc nUdc gay d nhidm
hang d i u tren the gidi Theo Vien Tai
nguyen The gidi, Brazil chiu trich
nhiem ve 6% dioxide carbon thai ra
tren toan ciu tQ nam 1950 den 2000,
ehi kem Hoa Ky (17%), Trung Qudc
(10%), Nga (8%), va Indonesia (7%)
NhUng ta't c i iQdng thai ciia Hda Ky,
cung nhu 80%o iQdng thai ciia Nga, va
60% ctia Trung Qud'c l i do dd't nhien
lieu hda thach va s i n xuat xi mang
Trai lai, 95% ctia Indonesia va 88%
ctia Brazil la do each sii dung da't, chii
yeu la pha rQng
Tuy nhien, theo cac dau hieu khac
thi Brazil la mpt nQdc dat thanh tich
cao ve bio ve mdi trQdng Dieu quan
trpng nha't l i Brazil b i t dau thay ddi
b i n tinh hinh mdi trUdng N i m 2000,
rieng Hoa Ky thai 22% dioxide
carbon, Trung Qudc 18%, Nga 6%
nhUng Brazil chi t h i i 1% Khoing
83% dien ctia Brazil dQdc s i n xua't
bang thiiy dien, va g i n 21% nang
lupng sti dung la tQ ngudn khae, nha't
l i tQ ethanol Ngoai ra, Brazil d i n
d i u the gidi ve san iQdng, cdng nghe,
va xuat khau ethanol, mpt dieu dot
nhien trd nen quan treng khi gii d i u
Ilia tang gap nhieu l i n tQ 28 ddla mdt
thung nam 2002 Ethanol ciia Brazil
"xanh" hdn ctia Hoa Ky
Hpi nghi thQdng dinh qud'c te ve
Trii da't, dUpc td chQc tai Rio de
Janeiro nam 1992, bat d i u mpt q u i
trinh d i n tdi Nghi dinh thQ Kyoto ve
thay ddi khi hau n i m 1997 Nghi dinh
thu dUdc Brazil thong qua nam 1997,
v i cd hieu iQc tQ khi Nga ky vdo n i m
2004 tuy Hoa Ky van tQ chdi tham gia Do cd nhieu tai nguyen mdi trQdng, do t i m quan trpng ctia sQ bio
ve rQng nhiet ddi ddi vdi da dang sinh hpc t o i n cau va khi hau, va kinh nghiem cua Brazil ve san xui't cdng nghiep cung nhQ phan bo' va sii dung nang iQdng sinh hpc, nen trong ta't ci cic nQdc mdi ndi v i cQdng qud'c cdng nghiep tien tien, Brazil la nQdc duy nha't ddng mpt vai tro trung tam trong che dp khi hau todn ciu Nguyen Bp trQdng Mdi trQdng la Rubens Ricupero nhan dinh rang Brazil thQa kha nang "lam mdt cQdng qudc mdi trQdng, Id Hnh vQc duy nha't
ma trong dd nguyen vpng ctia chung tdi trd thanh mpt cQdng qud'c ldn la hien thiic"
cac nha khi hau hpc Brazil gin day cd' ging thuyet phuc nhan dan nUdc minh quan tam den rQng nhiet ddi bi hiiy hoai va khi hau toan ciu bie'n ddi Hien nay hp cd b i n g chQng l i rQng nhiet ddi bi buy hoai cd the lim thay doi che dp mQa d Brazil, de dpa ndng nghiep vd viec cung cap nang iQdng cua qud'c gia, vi da't nQdc phu thudc nhieu vdo thuy dien Cudc tranh luan trong xa hpi Brazil ve van de mdi trUdng da md rpng dang ke sau thdi gian chinh phti quan sQ coi dd la i m mQu do nQdc ngoii xui giuc cho'ng sti phdt trien kinh te ciia dat nQdc
Bd'n nQdc dQdc coi nhQ cd tdc dpng ldn nha't de'n sQ thay dd'i khi hau trong tQdng lai la Trung Qudc, An
Dp, Nam Phi, vd Brazil Hien nay, Trung Qud'c dii kien dQa moi quan tam ve moi trQdng vao cic dii an p h i t trien ndng nghiep An Dp hinh dung
ra nhQng tham hpa do khi h i u bien ddi va bat dau chuan bi ke hoach ddi
Trang 9phd, de tranh c i n h tan p h i va ehet
ngQdi nghiem trpng nhQ nan sdng
than da gidng xud'ng Indonesia cung
nhieu nQdc Nam va Ddng Nam A, ke
ca ven bien An Dp, thang 12/2004
Cdn Nam Phi thi tim mpi each de Bp
Mdi trQdng tdc dpng den chinh phti,
trong khi Brazil tim ra mdt chien
lUdc ti mi de cdc qud'c gia dang phdt
trien thuyet phiic cac nude tien tien
ed trich nhiem cao hdn ve chi phi cho
mdi trQdng
Hien nay, gia d i u liia tren the gidi
lam cho Venezuela trd nen gidu cd
Td'ng thd'ng Hugo Chavez trQdc dd
cdng kich ethanol ctia Brazil la mpt
thQ nhien lieu ban, lam tang cinh
ngheo khd eua nhQng ndng dan bd cdy
iQPng thiic de trdng mia, nhQ vay cd
the giin tiep gay ra nan ddi d cie nQdc
dang phat trien Brazil cd hai phin
Qng ddi vdi ldi edng kich ctia dng Hugo
Chavez ThU nhdt, Tdng thdng Lula
da Silva, tuy rat khuynh t i v i tQng
ehi trich cudc tan cdng ciia Hoa Ky d
Iraq, nhQng quyet dinh hpp tac vdi
Hoa Ky de nghien cQu va ban nhien
lieu sinh hpc Day la mdt quan he
cdng tic hpp ly, vi hai nUde hien nay
chiem 80% s i n iQdng nhien lieu sinh
hpc tren toan ciu Sti cpng t i c dd da
hinh thanh, mac du Brazil vdn phin
khing manh me thue nhap k h i u cao
cua Hoa Ky danh vao ethanol cua
Brazil che tao tQ mia, san xuat re hdn
ethanol cua Hoa Ky lam tQ ngu cdc
ThU hai, dng Lula da Silva ndi ve
sti hpp tac ky thuat gin day vdi
Mozambique de s i n xuat nhien lieu
sinh hpc, v i cung giup dd cae nQdc
dang p h i t trien Ong cho rang viec
sin xuit ethanol va nhien lieu sinh
hpc eiia Brazil vQa sii dung nhieu
nhin cdng vQa "xanh" Ldi ndi ctia dng
Lula da Silva cung la mdt each gian
tiep cbl trich bdng rao thue quan cao
ctia Hoa Ky danh vao ethanol Brazil
Ket luan
Brazil cd nam trong so' cac nUdc ldn mdi ndi gpi la BRIC khdng? Ve kha nang vat chit, ngQdi ta cd the khdng dinh nQdc dd Id mdt BRIC, mac du cdch dinh gii nay cdn tuy thupe mQc
dp tang trQdng 4%) mdi nam ciia Brazil trong nhQng thap ky tdi Day la mdt thanh tQu khdng khd dat vi Brazil dn dinh ve chi'nh tri, nhQng nd da la mot muc tieu chang de thile hien trong eac thap ky gin ddy Brazil chae chan la mpt nude phQdng Tdy, rang bupc chat che vdi Hoa Ky va Tay Au ve van hda, lich sti, vd dia ly, nhQ vay dd Id mdt cQdng qud'c mdi ndi md sQ lien ket vdi phQdng Tay ve quin sQ va ngoai giao
la dieu khdng cdn nghi ngd nQa
Cd bang chQng cho tha'y nhan dan
va cac nha lanh dao Brazil mudn nUdc
hp ddng mdt vai trd toan cau Kbit vpng dat vi the cQdng qud'c ldn ed tQ nhQng ndm dau the ky XX Brazil la nUdc Nam My duy nha't tham gia ca hai cudc chien tranh the gidi Dd la mdt thanh vien sang lap Hdi qud'c lien
va Lien hpp quo'c, mpt nUdc ky ket hdu bet cic hiep Qdc qud'c te ldn ngay nay, tQ Nghi dinh thQ Kyoto va Cdng Qdc ve Da dang Sinh hpc den nhieu thda thuan ve cim phd bien vu khi hat nhan Brazil la nQdc My Latinh duy nha't ma chinh sich ddi ngoai cd
i n h hudng tren eae dien ddn qud'c te, tuy cac chinh phil Venezuela, Mexico, Cuba, va Argentina cd the khdng edng nhan dieu dd
Tupng trUng cho Qdc mud'n eua Brazil dat vi the cUdng qud'c ldn la, nUdc ndy tQ lau tim each trd thanh mpt uy vien thQdng trtic cua Hpi ddng Bio an Lien hpp qudc That ra, cd' Tdng thd'ng Franklin Delano
Trang 10Roosevelt ctia Hoa Ky da de cii Brazil
giQ mpt ghe d Hdi ddng Bio an nam
1944, nhQng bi Anh v i Nga phan ddi
Thing 9/2004, Brazil cung vdi DQc,
N h i t Bin, v i An Dp ddi l i m uy vien
Hpi ddng Bao an, nhQng Tong thd'ng
Lula da Silva thd't vpng khi vap phai
sti phan ddi manh me ctia Mexico va
Argentina Khi DQc, Nhat Bin, v i An
Dp cung bi chdng ddi nhQ vay thi de
nghi dd bi bd dd, nhQng nd cd kha
n i n g lai dQdc dQa ra
Trong luc dd, Brazil cd nhQng van
de npi bd cap thiet m i neu khdng dQdc
giii quyet thi cd the xdi mdn tinh kha
thi ciia sii phuc hdi kinh te hien nay,
do dd tdc dpng tieu cQc tdi nguyen
vpng trd thanh cQdng qud'c ldn Nha
kinh te hpc ldi lac Marcelo de Paiva
Abreu bieu Id sii bi quan khi ndi r i n g
"Brazil da cd mdt thdnh tich tang
trQdng kinh te kem cdi trong hdn hai
thap ky, vi the ching cd gi l i m ngQdi
ta nghi de'n mpt t h i n h tiiu td't hdn
nhieu trong tQdng lai gin Neu khdng
cd nhQng chinh sdch mdi de bao d i m
cii cich vi md rpng rai, giam chi tieu,
cd mpt he thd'ng thue khda hieu qua
hdn, gia tang d i n g ke ti le tiet kiem,
va trQdc het, mpt t h i n h tich tang
trQdng dQpc cai thien nhieu, thi Brazil
se khdng dUdc ke la mpt BRIC trong
tQdng lai" Theo bio cio cua Phdng
ThQdng mai My d Sao Paulo, Brazil
da mat nhieu kha nang canh tranh tQ nam 2000 den 2006 Chieu hQdng tieu ciic nay dQdc xac nhan d Bao cio nam 2007-2008 ctia Diin dan Kinh te The gidi ve tinh canh tranh
Tuy vay, van nhieu ngQdi lac quan,
ke c i tuan bio The Economist ctia
Anh va Ngan hang The' gidi Ngoai sti
t h i c h thQc ctia tang trQdng, nhQng van de cap thiet nhat la giii quyet tinh trang bat binh dang ldn ve thu nhap va cd hpi hpc hanh Vi the tQdng lai ctia Brazil trdng he thd'ng qud'c te nhQ vay phu thudc nhieu d chd, cac nhd lanh dao qud'c gia nay giai quyet the nao cac thach thQc trong nQdc 0 Brazil, dd la nhQng thach thQc ve quan ly kinh te, md chi khi nao dUdc giai quyet thi Brazil mdi ddng mdt vai trd d i n g ke d the ky XXI •
Tdi lieu tham khdo:
1 Burges, Sean "W "Without Sticl^s or Carrots: Brazilian Leadership in South America during the Cardoso Era, 1992-2003," Bulletin of Latin American Research, vol.25 No 1
2 Armijo, Leslie Elliott "Mass Democracy: The real Reason t h a t Brazil ended Inflation?" World Development, vol.33 No
12
S.Fausto, Boris A Concise History of Brazil Cambridge: Cambridge University Press