da phuc hdi va tang trudng kha trong quy IV- 2009, nhung khd khan va thach thirc van cdn nhieu: thieu vdn; thi truong xuat khau hang hda va thu hiit khach du lich nude ta phu thude va[r]
Trang 1• ^ i '
; ! U f U - ' • ' • '
JONG QUAN KINH Tl VIET NAM NAM 2009
VA TRiiN VONG 2010
iliiOi r ' j ii'.HO
NGUYEN SINH CUC
Vuqi qua nhiing kho khdn do khiing hodng vd suy thodi kinh te todn
cau, nen kinh te nude ta ndm 2009 van duy tri duac miic tang truong hop
ly, Iqm phdt duac kiem che, nong nghiep duot mua Tuy nhien, hqn che vd
bat cap vdn cdn nhieu, cong nghiep tdng chdm, ddu tu vd xudt khdu giam,
boi chi ngan sdch cao Du bdo ndm 2010, kinh te nudt ta se dien bien
theo chieu hudng thudn loi hon ndm 2009, tdc do tdng trudng se cao han
^
1 - Tong quan kinh te nam 2009
Nam 2009, kinh te nude ta phat trien trong
bdi canh gap nhieu khd khan hon cac nam
trudc O trong nude, thien tai xay ra tren dien
rdng vdi muc do rat nang ne Ca nam cd 11
eon bao tran qua lanh thd, trong dd cd nhirng
con gay Iii lyt, ngap ung sau va dai ngay tai
cac tinh mien Trung va Tay Nguyen, gay
thiet hai het sue nghiem trong Dich benh,
nhlt la cum ATHINI, sdt xult huylt, sau
benh bung phat d nhieu vung va dia phuang
O ngoai nude, thi trudng gia ca thi gidi biln
ddng phuc tap Cuoc khung hoang tai ehinh
va suy thoai kinh te toan clu da tac ddng tryc
tiep den nhieu nganh kinh tl nude ta nhu
cdng nghiep, xult khlu, thu hiit vdn dlu tu,
du lich Thuan Igi tuy cd nhung khdng nhiiu
Trudc tinh hinh dd, Bd Chinh tri, Qudc
Hdi, Chinh phu da kip thdi dl ra cac quyet
sach thich hgp va cu the bing cac chii truong,
chinh sach kinh tl, tai chinh nhim vugt qua
khd khan, phat huy thuan Igi, tap trung mpi
ngudn lye cho phat trien kinh te, bao dam an sinh xa hdi Thang 12-2008, Chinh phu da ban hanh Nghi quyet sd 30 ve nhirng giai phap cap bach nham ngan chan suy giam kinh te, duy tri tang trudng, bao dam an sinh
xa hdi Gdi kich cau hd trg cac doanh nghiep
va hd gia dinh dugc thye hien vdi nhieu giai phap thich ung nhu giam lai suat co ban, ho trg lai suat vay vdn luu ddng 4%/nam, bao lanh tin dung cho cac doanh nghiep vua va nhd, gian thdi gian nop thue Nhd sy lanh dao, chl dao quyet liet cua Chinh phii, sy no lye cd gang cua cac bd, nganh, dia phuang, cac CO sd san xuat va doanh nghiep van duy tri dugc tdc do tang trudng hgp ly
Tdng san pham trong nude (GDP) ca nam tang 5,2%, vugt chl tieu Qudc hdi de ra (5%) Tuy tdc do tang truong kinh te thap nhat trong vdng 10 nam gan day (nam 2008 tang 6,18%, nam 2007 tang 8,46%, 2006 tang
* PCS, TS
Trang 28,23% ), nhung Viet Nam vIn dugc thi gidi
danh gia la mot trong nhirng nude cd tdc do
tang trudng cao trong khu vyc chau A (sau
Trung Qudc tang 7,8%) Diin biln trong
nam, xu hudng tang trudng quy sau cao hon
quy trudc: quy I tang 3,14%, quy 11 tang
4,46%, quy III tang 5,76% va quy IV udc
tang 6,8% Ca 3 khu vyc kinh tl dlu dat tdc
dp tang trudng duong, trong do khu vyc
ndng, lam nghiep va thuy san tang 2%, khu
vuc edng nghiep va xay dyng tang 5% va khu
vyc dich vy tang tren 6,5%
Mure tang trudng nhu tren cho thay, xu
hudng phuc hdi ciia nen kinh te nude ta nam
2009 la rd net Ket qua dd danh dau su thanh
edng budc dau ciia Chinh phu trong chl dao,
dieu hanh vT md nham ngan chan suy giam
kinh te Den nay, cd the khang dinh chac
chan rang Viet Nam da ra khdi cude khung
hoang kinh te tdi te nhat cua the gidi trong
vdng 80 nam qua va bat dau lay lai da tang
trudng
Do tang trudng kinh te kha nen tinh hinh
tai chinh dn dinh Tdng thu ngan sach ca nam
udc dat 390 nghin ti ddng Cac khoan thu Idn
deu dat va vugt du toan ea nam va tang so vdi
nam 2008 Thu ndi dia tang 5%, thu can ddi
ngan sach tir hoat ddng xuat nhap khau tang
3,5% Trong thu ndi dia, thu tir khu vyc
doanh nghiep nha nude tang 10%, thu tir
doanh nghiep cd vdn dau tu nude ngoai
(khdng kl dau thd) bang 90%, thu thue cdng,
thuong nghiep va dich vy ngoai nha nude
tang 3%, thu phi xang dau tang 45%, thu phi
va le phi tang 5%
Tong chi ngan sach nha nude ca nam dat
104% dy toan ca nam, trong dd chi dau tu
phat trien tang 8%; (rieng dlu tu xay dyng ca
ban tang 9%); chi phat trien sy nghiep kinh te
- xa hdi, qudc phdng, an ninh, quan ly nha
nude Dang, doan thi tang 5%, chi tra ng va
vien trg tang 3%
Tuy nhien, dieu dang lo ngai trong can ddi ngan sach nha nude nam 2009 la boi chi ngan sach nha nude cdn cao - 6,9% GDP, trong khi khoan boi chi nay chua tinh den cac khoan chi tir ngudn trai phieu chinh phu, cac khoan chinh phu vay ve cho doanh nghiep vay lai Nam 2008, khi lam phat gin 20% bdi ehi ngan sach chl cd 5%, nhung nam nay lam phat dudi 6,9% ma boi chi ngan sach nhu tren
la qua Idn, rat dang phai suy nghi Ty le ng nude ngoai so vdi GDP bang 29,7%, my nhien, theo danh gia ciia cac ehuyen gia Ngan hang The gidi (WB), thi van nam trong mirc
an toan Nhung, neu tinh them yeu td ty gia hdi doai tang, thi tong ng nude ngoai len tdi mire cao hon tdng thu ngan sach nha nude nam 2009, la dieu dang quan ngai
Cdc ngdnh sdn xudt vd dich vu tiep tuc tdng trudng khd nhung chua deu vd chua vOng
Sdn xudt ndng nghiep phat trien va tang
trudng kha Gia tri san xuat ndng, lam nghiep
va thuy san nam 2009 udc tang 4,2% so nam
2008 (nam 2008 tang 5,6%), trong dd ndng nghiep tang 3,5%, lam nghiep tang 2,8% va thiiy san tang 4,5% Trong bdi canh cd nhieu khd khan do thien tai Idn gay thiet hai nang
ne, nhat la d cac tinh mien Trung va Tay Nguyen, thi day la dieu rat dang ghi nhan, song han che van con nhieu
Trong trong trot, san lugng liia ca nam udc
dat 39,3 trieu tan, la mirc cao nhat tu trudc den nay va tang hon nira trieu tan so vdi nam
2008 Mac dii dien tich gieo cay giam do ret dam trong vu ddng xuan cac tinh phia Bac va anh hudng ciia mua Iii Idn trong vu he thu va
vy mira, nhung nhd nang suat liia tang nen san lugng tang ca 3 vu trong nam San xuat ngd tiep tuc phat trien toan dien ca dien tich, nang suat nen san lugng tang khoang 400 nghin tan so vdi nam 2008
S6 807 (thang 1 nam 2010) 4 3
Trang 3Nghien cuu - Trao ddi t(pp chi C d n g sdn
Sdn luqng luang thue cd hqt nam 2009 dat
tren 44 trieu tin, tang khoang 700 nghin tan
so vdi nam 2008, la mire cao nhat tir trudc
den nay Luong thye binh quan nhan khau dat
khoang 513 kg/ngudi, tang 11 kg so vdi nam
2008 (502kg), du dan sd tang hon 1 trieu
ngudi Do dd an ninh luong thye qudc gia
dugc bao dam dn dinh trong mpi tinh hudng
Lugng gao xuat khau ca nam dat hon 6 trieu
tin, tang 33% so vdi nam 2008 Thieu ddi
giap hat giam 31% ve sd hd, giam 27,6% ve
sd khau so vdi nam 2008, dii thien tai, bao lu
gay thiet hai nang ne hon San xuat rau, mau,
cay cdng nghiep, cay an qua tiep tuc phat
trien va tang trudng kha San lugng ea-phe
nhan vugt 1 trieu tan, cao su mii khd tren
700 tin '"•'•' ' " "
-Chan nudi phat trien toan dien ea ve gia
sue, gia cam Gia tri san xuat chan nudi nam
2009 udc tang 7,5% va cao hon tdc dp tang
nam 2008 (6%) va cac nam trudc dd
Lam nghiep van phat trien trong khd khan
Dien tich trong rung tap trung dat tren 220
nghin ha, tang 5% so vdi nam 2008, san
lugng go khai thac dat 3.520 nghin m^ Dien
tich rirng bi chay, bi pha chl cd 3.500 ha, ty
le riing dugc che phu dat 39,5%, cao hon nam
2008
Tuy bao Iii nhieu, nhimg nudi trdng va
danh bat thiiy san vln phat triin va tang
trudng tot San lugng thuy san ea nam dat
ti-en 4,9 trieu tin, tang 4,5% so vdi nam 2008,
trong dd san lugng nudi trdng dat 2,6 trieu
tin, san lugng danh bit tren 2,3 trieu tin, dlu
cao hon nam 2008 San xult thuy san khdng
chl dap iing nhu clu tieu diing trong nude, ma
cdn tang sd lugng xult khau Kim ngach xult
khau thuy san ca nam udc dat 4,3 ti USD,
mirc cao nhat tir trudc din nay va tang so vdi
nam 2008
Tuy nhien, han che cua ndng, lam nghiep
va thiiy san 2009 la tinh ben viing chua cao Trong san xuat, xu hudng ty phat ehuyen dich CO cau cay trdng, vat nudi cdn phd bien Dien tich lua vu thu ddng (vy 3 d viing dong bang sdng Cim Long) van phat trien ty phat, chua dn dinh San lugng cae cay trdng khac tang - giam khdng dn dinh, nhat la cay vu ddng o viing ddng bang sdng Hdng, nhu cay bdng, mia, ea-phe, cao-su Chan nudi trau,
bd deu giam va tinh trang nhap bd ngoai (Thai Lan) vdi sd lugng Idn khdng qua kiem dich dang tiem an nguy co lay lan dich benh, nhung chua cd bien phap quan ly cua cac nganh, cac dia phuong Nudi trdng va khai thac thiiy san van chua dn dinh ca ve dien tich mat nude, ky thuat, con gidng, ngu trudng, ngu cy, tau thuy en nen tdc dp tang trudng da cham lai so voi cac nam trudc
Thi trudng tieu thu, nhat la xuat khau gap
nhieu khd khan do tac ddng ciia khung khoang kinh te toan cau Mac du lirgng nong san xuat khau nude ta nam 2009 tang, nhung kim ngach lai giam do gia giam: Lugng gao tang 33% nhung kim ngach giam 5,8%, ca-phe tang 15,5% ve lugng nhung giam 17,4%
ve tri gia, thuy san xuat khlu cung tang cham
San xudt cdng nghiep bat dau phyc hoi va
tang truong dan qua cac quy Gia tri san xuat cdng nghiep ea nam udc dat 8%, trong do khu vyc doanh nghiep nha nude tang 3,7%, khu vuc ngoai nha nude tang tren 10% va khu vyc FDI tang tren 8% Cac tdc dp nay thap hon tdc dp tang cua cac nam trudc do tac ddng tieu eye cira khung hoang kinh te toan cau Tuy nhien, net tien bd dang ghi nhan la tdc dp tang trudng cdng nghiep quy sau cao hon quy trudc: Quy I tang 2,2%, quy n tang 7%, 6 thang dau nam tang 4,3%, quy HI tang 8,5%, 9 thang tang 6,5% Trong 34 san phlm
Trang 4cdng nghiep chii yeu cd 18 san phlm tang so
vdi nam 2008 Mdt sd tinh, thanh phd vln
duy tri dugc tdc dp tang trudng kha, trong dd
Thanh Hda tang 13%, Quang Ninh tang 13%,
B a Ria - Viing Tau tang 10% Tuy nhien,
cdng nghiep van hdi phyc chua deu, chua
virng Gia tri san xuat cdng nghiep cua nhieu
mat hang va dia phuang giam manh so vdi
nam 2008 do anh hudng cua thi trudng tieu
thy, nhat la xuat khau, nhu: phan hda hpc, khi
ddt thien nhien, xe chd khach, khi hda long,
vai det tir spi bdng, quan ao ngudi Idn Cac
tinh, thanh phd cd quy md cdng nghiep Idn
hoac cd nhieu khu edng nghiep tap trung,
nhieu dy an FDI, la nhirng dia phirong cd gia
tri san xuat cdng nghiep tang cham hoac it bi
giam siit so vdi nam 2008
Ddu tu tit vdn ngdn sdch nhd nude dat ke
hoach de ra, trong dd vdn trung uong vugt ke
hoach 5% Thu hiit vdn FDI giam manh
(70%) so vdi nam 2008, chi dat tren 22 ti
USD Trong dd, vdn dang ky mdi dat tren 17
ti USD, vdn dang ky bd sung dat tren 5 ti
USD Tuy nhien, ty le vdn thye hien dat kha,
bang 47% (10 ti USD) vdn dang ky, cao hon
nam 2008 (18%)
Han che khac ciia dau tu nude ngoai trong
nam 2009 la ty trpng vdn dau tu vao bat ddng
san tang qua nhanh: tir 25% nam 2007,
36,8% nam 2008 len tdi 60% nam 2009 Vdi
CO cau dau tu nhu vay, khu vyc FDI khdng
tao them nhieu viec lam va it cd kha nang tao
ra sy ehuyen dich co cau kinh te, khdng day
manh dugc xuat khau
Ve sir dung vdn dau tu phat trien da cd
khdi sic song chua deu, chua virng Chii
truong kich clu thdng qua nhieu giai phap hd
trg lai suit cho vay theo Quyet dinh sd
131/QD-TTg la dung din, da gdp phin giai
cuu cho nhiiu doanh nghiep vugt qua khd
khan, duy tri san xult kinh doanh Song han
che, bat cap van cdn Thuc te chl cd khoang 20% doanh nghiep dugc vay vdn hd trg lai suat theo Quyet dinh tren, 80% sd doanh nghiep cdn lai va khu vyc hd gia dinh ndng dan san xuat ndng nghiep va kinh te ndng thdn It dugc hudng Igi tir ehu truong kich clu Dieu nay da gay ra bat binh dang trong quan
he kinh te giira cac doanh nghiep, hd gia dinh
va giam di y nghia ciia chii truong kich cau ciia Chinh phii
Hieu qua kinh te ciia vdn dau tu ndi chung chua cao Tdng muc dau tu toan xa hdi nam
2009 bIng 42,2% GDP (kl hoach la 39,5%), chl sd ICOR len den 8 la qua cao, so vdi mirc 6,6 ciia nam 2008
Thi trudng, gid cd kha dn dinh nhung sue
mua tang cham Tdng mirc ban le hang hda
va dich vy nam 2009 tang 18%, (neu trir yeu
td gia thi cdn tang 10%) Tdc dp nay thap hon cac nam trudc, trong dd kinh doanh thuong nghiep tang 19,1%, khach san nha hang tang 18,8%, dich vy tang 20,2% va du lich tang 1,3% so vdi nam 2008 Thi trudng tram lang
va sire mua tang cham, nhat la khu vuc ndng thdn
Kim ngqch xudt khdu hang hda ca nam
udc dat 57 ti USD, giam 11% so vdi nam
2008, trong do khu vyc kinh te trong nude giam 6,7%, khu vyc FDI giam 15,5% (kl ca dau thd), neu khdng ke dau thd thi khu vyc FDI chl giam 4% Mdt so mat hang xuat khau tang trong nam la gao, ea-phe, than da, dau thd, cao-su Net mdi trong xuat khau nam
2009 la thi trudng Hoa Ky dat kim ngach Idn nhat, gan 10 ti USD (tang manh so vdi cac nam trudc), EU dat 8 ti USD va thj trudng ASEAN gin 8 ti USD
Kim ngqch nhqp khdu ca nam udc dat 69
ti USD, giam 17% so vdi nam 2008, bao gdm khu vyc kinh te trong nude giam 20%, khu
S6 807 (thang 1 nam 2010) 45
Trang 5Nghien cuu - Trao ddi Tcip chi C d n g sdn
vyc FDI giam 13% Cac mat hang nhap khau
nam 2009 chu yiu la may mde, thiet bi,
nguyen lieu, nhien heu, phy heu det may
phyc vy san xult va hang tieu dung thiet yeu,
nhung cd xu hudng giam ca lugng va gia Thi
trudng nhap khau Idn nhat van la Trung
Qudc, Nhat Ban • J
Nhap sieu ea nam la 12 ti USD, giam 33%
so vdi nam 2008 (18 ti USD) Nguyen nhan
giam nhap sieu, mdt mat, do lugng hang hda
nhap khau giam hoac tang cham; mat khac,
chu yeu do gia giam Ty le nhap sieu so vdi
kim ngach xuat khau ea nam la 16,39% (nam
2008 la 29%) Tinh bin vung ciia thi trudng
xuat - nhap khau nam 2009 van chua dn dinh,
nhap khau giam manh nhung mirc nhap sieu
van cao la dieu dang suy nghi
Chl sd gia tieu dung (CPI) thang 12-2009
tang 6,28% so vdi thang 12-2008 Myc tieu
kiem che lam phat dugc bao dam dn dinh hon
hin nam 2008 (tang 19,8%) Dang chii y la
gia ca nhdm hang an udng va dich vu an udng
chl tang 3,8%, trong dd gia luong thye tang
thap nhat (2%), nhdm thye pham tang 3,5%,
nen thi trudng luong thuc, thye pham ndi
chung dn dinh Nhdm hang tang gia cao nhat
la nha d va vat lieu xay dyng, ke den la dd
diing va dich vu khac, dd udng, thude la va
giao due
Gia USD tang nhe: 8,5%, trong khi gia
vang tang manh: 50% so vdi thang 12-2008
vln dl dang lo ngai ciia CPI trong nam 2009
la tinh ben viing chua cao Tinh trang sdt gia
vang, gia USD va ca gia luong thye d muc dp
khac nhau dien ra trong nam, mdt mat, do gia
the gidi biln ddng; mat khac, do cdng tac
quan ly, tuyen truyin cdn nhiiu bit cap
-Hoat ddng du lich tang cham Lugng
khach qudc tl din Viet Nam ca nam dat 3,8
trieu lugt ngudi, bIng 88% so vdi nam 2008
cac nude va vung lanh thd cd nhieu khach du lich den nude ta nhung nam trudc, nam nay deu giam, trong dd cd Trung Qudc, Hoa Ky, Han Qudc, Nhat Ban, Hoat ddng du lich trong nude ciing trong tinh trang dd voi so lugt khach va doanh thu tu du lich, nghi dudng dlu tang cham hon nam 2008 Nguyen nhan mdt phan do tac ddng tieu eye ciia khung hoang kinh tl thi gidi, mat khac do chit lugng va san pham du lich nude ta con han che, bat cap
Tdm lai, kinh te nude ta nam 2009 ve ca
ban da phuc hdi va tang trudng hgp ly, nhat
la nhung thang cudi nam Trong bdi canh tac ddng tieu eye cua khiing hoang va suy thoai kinh te toan cau, nhirng ket qua dat dugc la rat dang ghi nhan Cac td chirc tai chinh quoc
te nhu IMF, WB, ADB deu danh gia cao
ket qua nay, nhu IMF nhan dinh: Trong ndm
2009 tdng trudng dukien 5,2% ciia Viet Nam duqc xem la rdt khd quan so vdi cdc nen kinh
te khde Tuy nhien, danh gia cua Chinh phii
trong bao cao trudc Qudc Hdi khda XII ky
hpp thir sau ciing thira nhan: Tdng trudng chu
yeu vdn theo chieu rong, ndng sudt lao dong, chat luqng vd sice cqnh tranh cdn thdp Viec dieu hdnh ty gid vd ngoqi hdi chua that linh hoqt, ddn den gdm giic USD, cdn cdn thanh todn bi tham hut (dubdo 1,9 ti USD) Bdi chi ngdn sdch tdng vd chinh sdch tien te ndi long luon tiem dn nguy ea Iqm phdt cao trd IqL
Tinh hinh nay dang dat ra cho nam 2010 nhirng van de mdi can nghien euu va giai dap
2 - Trien vong kinh te nam 2010
-' Dy bao nam 2010 kinh te nude ta cd trien vpng tang trudng cao hon nam 2009, nhung van thap hon cac nam trudc khung hoang kinh te the gidi vi nhirng ly do dudi day:
Trang 6Thu nhdt, kinh te thi gidi da hdi phuc sau
khung hoang nhung van tang trudng cham
Theo dy bao cua Quy Tiin te qudc tl (IMF),
thuong mai toan cau se hdi phuc vao giira
nam 2010 khi dat muc tang trudng 3,2% do
siic cau ciia nhieu nen kinh te Idn se tang trd
lai Trong linh vyc dau tu, mac dii ludng vdn
FDI cd kha nang se tang trd lai, nhung se phu
thude nhieu vao da phue hdi ciia kinh te thi
gidi v
Nam 2010, chau A dugc danh gia la khu
vyc se phye hdi sdm nhat, trong dd dang chii
y la sy phyc hdi cua kinh te Trung Qudc Da
phuc hdi cua kinh te the gidi va chau A se
phu thude nhieu vao sy phyc hdi ciia kinh te
My, dac biet la linh vyc tai chinh - tien te va
bat ddng san tai nude nay Tuy nhien, theo dy
bao, kinh te My van phuc hdi cham (dy bao
se theo md hinh chir U cd day keo dai) Nhu
vay, tinh trang thieu vdn cua cae nude dang
phat trien trong dd c6 Viet Nam se cdn dien
ra, xuat khau se con gap kho khan
Thit hai d trong nude, tuy kinh te nude ta
da phuc hdi va tang trudng kha trong quy
IV-2009, nhung khd khan va thach thirc van cdn
nhieu: thieu vdn; thi truong xuat khau hang
hda va thu hiit khach du lich nude ta phu
thude vao Hoa Ky, EU, Nhat Ban, Han
Qudc , nhung trong nam 2010 nen kinh te
cac nude nay van tang trudng cham; nhu cau
tieu dung cua ngudi dan sau khung hoang
kinh te cirng tang cham hon, ca cau mat hang
Cling thay ddi, trong khi dd hang hda va san
pham dich vy ciia nude ta chat lugng chua
cao, gia ea kem canh tranh, lai cham doi moi
theo yeu clu thi trudng, nen kha nang xuat
khau bi han che Viec lien tuc thye hien chinh
sach tiin te ndi long, tang manh cung tien c6
the din din nguy co lam phat Ben canh d6,
tham hut ngan sach tang manh trong nam
2009 do Chinh phu tiep tuc thye hien cac ke
hoach kich thich kinh te la nhirng bat cap can dieu chinh
Nhung nude ta ciing ed nhirng thuan lai:
Kinh te nude ta my chiu tac ddng tieu eye tir
sy suy thoai kinh te the gidi, nhung mirc dp khdng nhieu Ndng nghiep la nganh it chiu anh hudng nhat va ciing la nganh phat trien toan dien va tang trudng cao lien tuc trong nam 2008, 2009 va dy bao ca nam 2010 Tinh hinh chinh tri, xa hdi dn dinh va sy ddng thuan cao da va dang la nhan td tich eye de cac doanh nghiep, hd gia dinh yen tam dau tu phat trien san xuat, kinh doanh Ngudn von ODA cua cac nha tai trg nam 2010 dat muc cao gdp phan han che khd khan ve vdn trong nude Nhirng thang cudi nam 2009 da xuat hien nhirng tin hieu tich eye d hau het cac linh vyc kinh te Xu hudng phuc hdi kinh te cung vdi viec cai thien moi trudng dau tu, md rong thi trudng trong nude va xuat khau ciia Chinh phu da tac ddng den niem tin ciia cac nha dau tu trong va ngoai nude Sd doanh nghiep thanh lap mdi dang tiep tuc tang len vao cudi nam 2009 la tin hieu dang mirng Xuat phat tu bdi canh dd, Quoc hoi Khda XII, ky hpp thir sau da thdng qua Nghi quyet
ve cac chl tieu kinh te nam 2010 kha hgp ly: GDP tang 6,5%, thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi 1.200 USD, chl sd CPI tang 7%, tdng kim ngach xuat khau tang 6% so 2009, tdng vdn dau tu toan xa hdi khoang 41% GDP Tdng thu ngan sach nha nude la 456,4 nghin
ti ddng, tang 16,8% so vdi nam 2009, tdng chi ngan sach 581,9 nghin ti dong, tang 9,2% Can cir vao thye trang va xu hudng phat trien kinh te nam 2009 va bdi canh kinh te the gidi va trong nude nam 2010, dy bao kha nang dat dugc cac chl tieu tren day la hien thye Ndng nghiep van la nganh c6 trien vpng nam 2010 tiep tuc tang trudng tren 6% ve gia tri san xuat va 4% ve gia tri tang them so vdi
Sfi 807 (thang I nam 2010) 47
Trang 7Nghien cuu - Trao ddi T p p c h i C d n g s ^ n
nam 2009 San xult cdng nghiep se phyc hdi
voi tdc dp nhanh din va ca nam tang khoang
13% vl gia tri san xult va 7% gia tri tang
them Kim ngach xult khau udc dat muc tieu
dl ra (6%) do thi trudng My, EU, Nhat Ban,
Trung Qudc phyc hdi nhung cham Chi sd gia
tieu diing dat dudi 10% Tinh hinh tai chinh
cd trien vpng dn dinh, thu chi ngan sach dat
chl tieu de ra, nhung bdi chi ngan sach cd kha
nang cao hon nam 2009 do anh hudng cua
cac gdi kich cau hd trg cac doanh nghiep nam
2009 va 2010 i : , • : = : .s
De bien cac trien vpng tren day thanh hien
thye, nam 2010 can thye hien ddng bd he
thdng nhieu giai phap kinh te, tai chinh, co
che, chinh sach, quan ly, dieu hanh, td chirc
chi dao cua cac nganh, cac cap va trien khai
ciia cac doanh nghiep thude mpi thanh phan
kinh te Mdt sd hudng can tap trung uu tien
la:
- Tap trung gidi ngdn tdt, cd chdt luqng
edc ngudn vdn ddu tu phdt then trong nude
vd nude ngodi La nam cudi ciia ke hoach 5
nam 2006 - 2010, nam cd nhieu sy kien lich
su Idn, nen ngudn vdn dau tu cua Nha nude,
cac doanh nghiep, cua dan, vien trg ODA,
vdn kieu bao gui ve nude, vdn FDI cd trien
vpng tang nhanh va dat mirc cao Dd la ngudn
lye quy khdng phai nam nao ciing cd nen eIn
c6 CO che, chinh sach va giai phap dl quan ly,
giai ngan sdm, su dyng cd hieu qua, chdng
that thoat, lang phi Day la vln dl rlt quan
tipng, vi mudn dat dugc tdc dp tang trudng
kinh te cao dong thdi dn dinh dugc cac can
ddi vi md thi phai nang cao hieu qua su dung
vdn cua nen kinh te
- Md rdng thi trudng trong vd ngodi nude
Nam 2010 la nam cudi cua kl hoach 5 nam
2006 2010 va chiin luge 10 nam 2001
-2010, nen cac nganh, dia phuong se tap trung
ngudn lye cho dau tu phat triin san xult edng
nghiep, ndng nghiep va dich vy sau khi hoi phyc kinh te Vi vay, lugng hang hda va san pham dich vy tung ra thi trudng se tang nhanh, ddi hdi thi trudng tieu thy tang tuang ung Vi vay, viec cham lo td chirc thu mua, nang cao chit lugng hang hda Viet Nam theo tieu chuan qudc te, giir thuong hieu va uy tin mdt sd hang hda chu luc, sap xep lai co cau hang hda nam 2010 la giai phap vira mang tinh clp bach trudc mat, vira cd y nghia chien luge lau dai nhIm md rdng thi trudng the gidi
- Ddi mai ea che ehinh sdch kinh te - tdi
ehinh nham khuyen khieh cac doanh nghiep,
CO sd san xuat, hd gia dinh phat trien theo hudng ben vung, tang chat lugng, giam chi phi de tang sire canh tranh tren thi trudng trong nude va the gidi Can ban hanh cac ca che, chinh sach ed tinh kha thi nham tai ca cau nen kinh te trong he thdng cac nganh san xuat va dich vu
- Tap trung ngudn lire ciia Nhd nude vd
nhdn ddn de khde phue nhanh hqu qud ndng
ne eiia thien tai a ckc tinh mien Trung va Tay
Nguyen do con bao sd 11 gay ra, ddng thai
cd bien phap khac phye han han, thieu nuac
d cac dia phuong phia BIC, nhlt la vung ddng bang sdng Hdng, de bao dam vu ddng xuan
2010 dat nang suat cao
- Di ddi vdi phat trien kinh tl, nam 2010
Nhd nude cdn tap trung cao do ngudn luc von
vd lao ddng ddu tuxdy dung mdi vd ndng cdp ket edu hq tdng kinh te - xa hdi theo yeu cau
phat trien ben viing, nhlt la he thdng giao thdng, thiiy Igi, dien, nude sach, ve sinh moi trudng, giao dye - dao tao, y tl, van hoa Tang trudng kinh te gan vdi bao dam an sinh
xa hdi, xda ddi, giam ngheo, bao ve moi trudng sinh thai can dugc quan triet trong mpi cap, mpi nganh •