Cuoc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau bat dau tir cudi nam 2008 va keo dai den bet nam 2009 da dem lai nhirng tac dgng tieu eye doi vdi tat ca cac nudc tren the gidi khdng ke do la nud[r]
Trang 1CHAU PHI
TOAN CANH KHU VlTC CHAU PHI VA TRUNG DONG
NAM 2009 VA TRIEN VONG 2010
Tran Thi Lan Huang* Pham Thanh Hd**
1 Boi canh qu6c te anh hifang den
khu VLPC chau Phi va Trung Dong
Cuoc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau bat
dau tir cudi nam 2008 va keo dai den bet
nam 2009 da dem lai nhirng tac dgng tieu
eye doi vdi tat ca cac nudc tren the gidi
khdng ke do la nudc phat trien hay nudc
dang phat trien Khac vdi nhirng cuoc khung
hoang tai chinh da tirng dien ra d nhieu nudc
dang phat trien trong hai thap ky gan day,
cuoc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau nam
2008-2009 dugc khdi nguon tir My va cac
nen kinh te phat trien, sau do mai lan rgng ra
toan cau Cuoc khung hoang tai chinh lan
nay trudc bet mang lai nhiing tac dgng tieu
eye cho bau bet cac nen kinh te phat trien
Trong hai nam 2008-2009, kinh te My tang
trudng d mirc 0,4%o va -2,7%) tuong irng,
danh dau mot thdi ky den toi cua nen kinh te
' Tliac si, Vien Nghien cuu Chau Phi va Trung Dong
" Tien sl Hpc vien Hanli cliinli khu virc I
My sau khi nudc nay lien tyc dat duac mirc tang trudng 2,8%o/nam trong vdng 5 nam (2003-2007) Tinh tir khi no ra khung hoang
d My vao thang 9 nam 2008 den het ngay 19/12/2009, cd tdi 140 ngan hang d My tuyen bd pha san - mue cao nhat ke tu nam
1990 That nghiep d My vao thang 10 nam
2009 len tdi 10,2%o, cao nhat trong vdng 26 nam qua Thj trudng chiing khoan giam 40%) gia trj Cung vdi My, kinh te EU ciing lam vao thdi ky khung hoang tram trgng vdi tdc
do tang trudng GDP cua khu vyc ddng Euro chi la 0,7%o vao nam 2008 va -4,2%) vao nam
2009 That nghiep cua khu vuc ddng Euro chiem den gan 10%o lye lugng lao dgng nam
2009 De ddi phd vdi cude khung hoang lan nay My va cac nen kinh te phat trien Idn tren the gidi phai tieu ton nhieu ty USD, ddng thai phai tien hanh nhirng cai each dau ddn mang tinh dieu chinh kinh te vT mo va tai ca cau Can "sdng than" khung hoang nam 2008-2009 vdi nhirng ton that va chi phi
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUiXG DOIVG so 04 (56) thang 04/2010
Trang 2Tran Thi Lan Hddng - Pham Thanh Ha Toan canh khu vdc chau Phi
"ciru chiia" nang ne da danh manh vao nen
kinh te My va cac nudc cdng nghiep phat
trien, khien cac dinh che da phuang phai bd
tay khong cd giai phap ciru chiia bdi tinh den
nam 2008 tdng sd vdn cua IMF chi la ban
200 ty USD (chu yeu tir nguon von ddng gdp
eua My, Dire, Nhat Ban, Anh va Phap),
khong dii sire giup the gidi thoat khdi khung
hoang Theo danh gia cua IMF thang 10 nam
2009, vao nam 2009 kinh te cac nudc cong
nghiep phat trien (bao gom My, EU, Nhat
Ban va mot sd nudc cong nghiep phat trien
khac) dat mirc tang trudng - 3,4% sau khi da
dat mirc tang trudng 0,6%o vao nam 2008 va
nen kinh te the gidi trong nam 2009 dat miic
tang trudng -l,l%o sau khi da dat mdc tang
trudng 3%o vao nam 2008
Khung hoang tai chinh toan cau va d cac
nen kinh te edng nghiep phat trien da dem lai
nhirng tac dgng tieu cue ddi vdi cae nudc
dang phat trien, trong do cd khu vyc chau
Phi va Trung Dong Vao nam 2009, cac
nudc dang phat trien va mdi ndi chi dat tdc
do tang trudng 1,7%), thap ban rat nhieu so
vdi miic tang trudng 6%) cua nam 2008 va
8,3%) cua nam 2007 Tang trudng kinh te cua
nhdm nudc dang phat trien do tac dgng ciia
khung hoang ed su khac nhau giira cac khu
vyc Khu vyc Trung va Ddng Au chiu tac
dgng nang ne nhat tir khung hoang tai chinh
toan cau vdi tdc do tang trudng GDP nam
2009 la - 5%, tiep theo la khu vyc My
Latinh vdi toe do tang trudng GDP la -2,5%o,
tiep den la chau Phi dat l,7%o, Trung Dong
dat 2%o va chi cac nudc dang phat trien chau
A duy tri dugc toe do tang trudng GDP la
6,2%o, tuy nhien toe do tang trudng nay cua
chau A van thap ban nhieu so vdi nhirng
nam trudc do Tac dgng cua khung hoang tai chinh toan cau doi vai cac nudc dang phat trien trong nam 2009 chii yeu thdng qua 2
con dudng: Mot Id, khung hoang tai chinh
toan cau va tir cac nude cdng nghiep phat trien cd tac dgng tieu cue den thi trudng chirng khoan va thi trudng tai chinh cac nudc dang phat trien Nhirng thi trudng chirng khoan chil yeu ciia cac nude dang phat trien nhu a An Do, Trung Quoc, Brazil, Nam Phi deu bi sut giam manh trong khiing hoang, khien tinh hinh tai chinh d cac nudc dang phat trien lao dao
Hai Id, suy giam va khung hoang kinh te
d cac nudc cong nghiep phat trien cd tac dgng tieu cue doi vdi cac nudc dang phat trien tren nhieu kenh: thuang mai, dau tu nude ngoai, vien trg, cho vay thuang mai, cac ddng von chinh thiic khac Chang ban, tang trudng kinh te cao a Trung Qude va An
Do thai ky truac khung hoang khien nhu cau nhap khau nguyen lieu va khoang san tir chau Phi nhu dau tho, dong, thiec tang len rat cao Nhung khi hai nudc nay bi tac dgng eua khung hoang nam 2008-2009, nhu clu nhap khau ciia bg bi cat giam manh, khien cac nudc chau Phi ngheo hon bi anh hudng nang ne ban Tac dgng nang ne cua khiing hoang ciing khien ddng vien trg va dau tu true tiep nuac ngoai ciia cac nudc phat trien cho cac nudc dang phat trien bi cIt giam nghiem trgng Nhu vay cd the tbiy, moi kenh khi bj anh hudng tu khung hoang se dem lai nhirng tac dgng tieu eye khac den su tang trudng va phat trien cua cac nudc dang phat trien, trong do cd khu vyc chau Phi va Trung Dong
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUING DOfVG so 04 (56) thang 04/2010
Trang 3Toan cann Knu vuc cnau nni Tran Thi Lan Hqdng - Pham Thanh Ha
Tir nhO-ng kenh tren, ta cd tbi thong ke
nhirng nudc dang phat trien chiu anh hudng
nhieu nhat tir khiing hoang tai chinh toan clu
nhu sau:
+ Nhiing nudc dang phat trien cd quan he
thuong mai khang kbit va la ban hang truyen
thong vdi My va EU Mexico la mot vi du
dien hinh Nam 2009 tdc do tang trudng
GDP cua Mexico la -7,3%o, mot tdc do tang
trudng thap bae nhat the gidi va bj danh gia
la tram trgng nhat tir truac den nay
tu cac nudc phat trien Zambia la trudng hgp dien hinh chiu tac dgng tieu eye do gia ddng the gidi giam nghiem trgng, trong khi cac nudc Caribe va chau Phi ehju anh hudng Idn
do ngoai te tii du lich giam sut
+ Cac nudc dang phat trien phu thugc vao vdn FDI va vdn dau tu gian tiep nudc ngoai Dien binh la mot so nudc My Latinh
+ Cac nuac dang phat trien phu thugc vao vien trg nudc ngoai Dien binh la cac nudc chau Phi
+ Nhirng nudc dang phat trien cd hang
boa xuat khau chiu tac dgng nang ne nhat tii
khung hoang va nhirng nuac phat trien chu
yeu dya vao nganh du hch thu hut du khach
Hinh 1 Toe do tang tru-ong GDP cua tirng nhom nuffc tren the gioi
12
+ Cac nudc dang phat trien xuat khau dau
md bi anh hudng do gia dau the gidi giam Dien hinh la cac nudc Trung Ddng
3
0
4
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'••••• - Cac
Cac
gioi
nen kinh te phat trien nen kinh te moi noi va dang phat trien
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2004 2005 ZOOS 2007 2008 2009* 2010*
Nguon: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2009
Tai cac nudc dang phat trien ngheo hon,
tac dgng cua khung hoang doi vdi ngudi
ngheo cang nghiem trgng Vao nam 2009,
Ngan hang The gidi da cong bo the gidi dang
rai vao cuoc khung hoang kep "3F" do la :
khiing hoang tai chinh (Financial crisis),
khung hoang gia nhien lieu the giai (Fuel
price crisis) va khung hoang luong thyc (Food crisis) Ba cuoc khung hoang nay da khien sd lugng ngudi ngheo tren the gidi vao khoang 64 trieu ngudi (nhirng ngudi sdng d mirc dudi 1,25 USD/ngay) va cd the tang len trong nam 2010
Tgp chi nghien curu aiAU PHI & TRUIVG DOIVG so 04 (56) thang 04/2010 •9
Trang 4Tran Thi Lan Hu'Ong - Pham Thanh Ha Toan canh khu vut chau Phi
Hinh 2 Tac dong cua khung hoang tai chinh toan cau doi voi cac nuffc dang phat trien
Khung hoang tai chinh toan cau
Tac (long \\ mo
Thuang mai
Dau tu
I
Ngan sach chinli phii
Vien ITQ
Tac (long xa hoi Chuyen giao nganh
cong cpng va tu nlian
Gia
ca
Tai san
" i L
Viec lam
Djch vy hang hoa
Ngheo klio
Nguon: ODI, The Global Financial Crisis" Poverty and Social Protection, Evidence from 10 country case studies Briefing Paper August 2009
2 Toan canh chau Phi va Trung
Dong nam 2009
* Chdu Phi ndm 2009:
Neu nhu nam 2008 kinh te chau Phi gat
hai dugc nhieu thanh tyu phat trien kinh te,
thi nam 2009 cuoc khung hoang tai chinh
toan cau da tac dgng den chau Phi thong qua
nhieu kenh khac nhau, trong dd eg kenh
thuang mai, dau tu, vien trg, tai chinh ,
khien tinh hinh kinh te - chinh tri chau Phi
cd nhieu thay ddi Vao nam 2009, toe do
tang trudng thuong mai the gidi la -ll,9%o,
day dugc danh gia la mue suy giam Idn nhat
cua thu(3ng mai the gidi ke tu nam 1982,
trong do cac nude nhu My, EU, Trung Quoc
(chiem tdi 70%) tong kim ngach thuong mai
cua chau Phi) deu chiu su suy giam boat
dgng thuong mai nhieu nhat Tdng kim
ngach xuat khau cua My sang 41 nudc dang
dugc hudng che do AGOA cua My (trong dd
hau bet la cac nudc chau Phi) giam tdi 63%) trong niia dau nam 2009, khien cac nudc chau Phi phai chiu nhieu tac dgng nang ne tir boat dgng thuong mai Hau bet bang hda cua chau Phi dugc xuat khau sang cac nudc phat trien, vi vay theo danh gia cua IMF neu tang trudng GDP cua the giai (chu yeu qua kenh thuang mai quoc te) giam 1 diem phan tram thi tang trudng GDP cua cac nudc chau Phi
se bi giam 0,5 diem phIn tram Thuang mai giam, ket hgp vdi ddng von dau tu rut khdi chau Phi do nhieu doi tac dau tu budc phai quay ve nudc de doi phd khung hoang, khien tinh binh chau Phi them lao dao Nam 2009,
FDI vao chau Phi giam Xo\ 26,1% so vdi nam
2008 va nhirng nudc tiep nhan von FDI chii yeu d chau Phi nhu Nam Phi, Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Ghine Xich dao, Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia deu phai chiu nhirng tac dgng tieu eye do ddng von FDI giam sut Khung hoang tai chinh toan cau
Tgp chi nghien ciru a i A U PHI & TRUrVG DOrVG so 04 (56) thang 04/2010
Trang 5ro„„ Tran Thj Lan Hirong - Pham Thanh Ha
ciing khien cac ddng von qude te, dac biet la
tien giii ve tir lao dgng di cu va von vien trg
nudc ngoai sut giam Nam 2009, tien kieu
hoi gui ve chau Phi udc tinh giam 4,4%) do
lao dgng chau Phi a cac nudc cdng nghiep
phat trien bi that nghiep ngay cang dong
Ngoai ra, cac nha tai trg 1cm nhu My, Italia,
Anh, Phap, Nhat Ban bien dang phai ddi
phd vdi khung hoang kinh te trong nudc nen
cung cat giam vien trg cho chau Phi Chang
ban trong nam 2005 G8 cam ket vien trg cho
chau Phi khoang 8,8 ty USD/nam trong giai
doan 2005-2010, nhung do tac dgng cua
khung hoang, so tien cam ket vien trg cho
chau Phi da bi cat giam manh, dy tinh chi
cdn la 3,59 ty USD/nam cho nam 2009
Nhu-ng tac dgng bat Igi tir cuoc khiing
hoang tai chinh toan cau khien tinh hinh
chau Phi nam 2009 gap nhieu khd khan
Tang tru(3ng kinh te sut giam manh, chi dat
l,7%o so vdi 5,2%) ciia nam 2008 Tham but
ngan sach nam 2009 len tdi 4,37%) GDP so
vdi miic thang du trong nhieu nam trudc do
d nhieu nude chau Phi Can can tai khoan
hien hanh giam tir miic thang du 1,22%) GDP
cua nam 2008 xuong miic tham hut 6,23%o
GDP vao nam 2009 Su sut giam cua gia ca
mot loat hang boa trong do cd gia dau va gia
nhien lieu khien cac nudc xuat khau dau md
d chau Phi gap nhieu khd khan
Cuoc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau
cung tac dong bat Igi den nhu'ng no luc xoa
ddi giam ngheo cua chau Phi Sd lucmg
ngudi dan chau Phi song dudi mure ngheo
kho da tang len them 16 trieu ngudi trong
giai doan tir giira nam 2008 den giira nam
2009 Khiing hoang tai chinh ket hgp vdi
cuoc khung hoang luong thyc cua nam 2008
da day sd lugng ngudi ngheo len tdi mirc chiem 50%) dan sd chau Phi vao giira nam
2009 so vdi ty le 58% cua nam 1996 Nhung nudc tiep tuc phai ddi mat vdi tinh hinh nghiem trgng ve ngheo khd va khung hoang kinh te xa hoi trong nam 2009 phai ke den la: Sudan trong cuoc khung hoang nhan dao
d Darfur, su sup do cua nen kinh te Zimbabwe, xung dot va bat dn dinh chinh tri
d Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Guinea Xich dao, Madagascar va Somalia
Tuy cdn gap mot sd bat dn chinh tri, nhung tinh binh chinh tri nam 2009 d chau Phi cd nhieu dau hieu duac cai thien Ngay cang cd nhieu nudc chau Phi hu(5ng tdi nen dan chu va cai thien tinh minh bach ciing nhu nang luc quan ly cua chinh phii Tuy nhien, cuoc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau ciing cd nhirng tac dgng khdng tot den nen chinh tri chau Phi Do nhieu thanh qua kinh
te bi cucrp di trong khung hoang va suy thoai kinh te, nhieu ngudi dan chau Phi td
ra mat Idng tin vao nang lye cua chinh phu, dac biet la d nhiing nudc bau xung dot, cac nudc de bi ton thuong do the che chinh tri yeu kem Cuoc khung hoang luang thyc keo dai tir giiia nam 2008 den nay da dan den nhirng bao dgng chinh tri va bat on djnh d mot vai nudc chau Phi, la nguy ca de doa den boa binh va on dinh chinh tri chung ciia toan khu vuc
* Trung Dong ndm 2009:
Cung giong nhu cac nudc chau Phi, khu vyc Trung Ddng trong nam 2009 khdng tranh khdi nhirng tac dgng bat Igi cua cuoc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau Trudc khi khung hoang tai chinh toan cau no ra, khu vuc Trung Ddng dyac danh gia la day tiem
Tgp chi nghien cuu OIAU PHI & TRUIVG D 6 I \ G so 04 (56) thang 04/2010
Trang 6Tran Thj Lan Hqong - Pham Thanh Ha Toan canh khu vdc chau Phi
nang tang trudng Tai mot so quoc gia Trung
Ddng, thi trudng dugc ty do hoa bang each
ndi long nhirng dieu tiet ve sd hiru cua nha
dau tu nudc ngoai, ndi long thue quan va dau
tu, uu dai cho khu vyc tu nhan va dau tu
nudc ngoai Theo danh gia ciia Td chiic
Thuong mai The gidi (WTO), chi phj rui ro
trong kinh doanh d nhieu quoc gia Trung
Dong da giam dang ke trong vai nam trd lai
day Ddng von nudc ngoai lien tuc chay vao
cac qude gia Trung Dong cd nen kinh te va
chinh tri dn dinh Thuong mai hang boa
dugc md rgng nhanh chdng Gia dau the
gi(?i lien tuc tang tir nam 2005 den giira nam
2008 da khien mot sd quoc gia xuat khau
dau lua Trung Ddng nhu Iran, Syria, Arap
Xeut, UAEs tang nhanh dy trir ngoai te tir
dau md
Tuy nhien, tir cudi nam 2008 trd lai day,
biic tranh Trung Ddng cd nhieu sac thai u am
do bi anh hudng cua khung hoang toan cau
Theo danh gia cua IMF, kinh te Trung Ddng
nam 2009 chi tang trudng 2% so vdi mirc
5,4%o cua nam 2008 va 6,2% cua nam 2007
Khung hoang toan cau khien gia dau the gidi
d mure cao kich diem 150 USD/thung trong
quy I nam 2008 giam manh xuong cdn 65
USD/thiing vao cuoi thang 10 nam 2008
Cac qude gia xuat khau dau md chiu tac
dgng manh nhat tu sy sut giam gia dau, dac
biet la cac nudc nhu Bahrain, Iran, Iraq,
Kuwait, Lybia, Oman, Qatar, Arap Xeut,
UAE Gia dau md xuong thap da dan den tai
khoan hien hanh cua cac quoc gia xult khau
dau md Trung Dong tu mirc thang du tren
400 ty USD vao cuoi nam 2008 sut giam
xudng mue tham hut tai khoan hien hanh 10
ty USD vao cuoi nam 2009 Khung hoang tai
chinh toan cau khien nhilu quoc gia Trung
Dong phai thyc hien chinh sach that chat tin dyng, dac biet la d cac nudc GCC va cac nudc cd he thong tai ehinh lien ket chat che vdi thi trudng toan cau Cdn tai cac quoc gia nhap khau dau mo Trung Dong nhu Ai Cap, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria , tac dgng cua khung hoang chu yeu la thong qua kenh
dau tu mxoc ngoai va thuong mai Cac nudc
nay ciing phai chiu mirc tang trudng thap hon nhieu so vdi nam 2008 Tai Lebanon, tdc do tang trudng GDP nam 2009 chi dat 3%o so vdi 5%) cua nam trudc do va tham hut ngan sach cua Lebanon nam 2009 len mure cao ky luc, chiem khoang 14%o GDP Khiing hoang toan cau ciing lam giam doanh thu tir xuat khau, du lich, FDI va kieu hoi ciia Syria Kim ngach xuat khau cua Syria giam khoang 16%o (theo danh gia ciia IMF) va giam khoang 34%o (theo danh gia cua WB) trong nam 2009 Tham hut ngan sach cua
Syria nam 2009 len Xa\ 266 ty SYP (khoang
5,3 ty USD), chiem 9% GDP Tai Jordan, nai cd thi trudng trong nudc lien ket ban che vdi thi trudng tai chinh toan cau, tac dgng cila khung hoang ciing ro ret Tdc do tang trudng GDP nam 2009 cua Jordan chi la 4%
so vdi miic 5,5%) cua nam 2008 va tham hut tai khoan hien hanh len tai mdc 1 l%o GDP Khung hoang toan cau ciing khien khu vyc Trung Ddng de bi ton thuong, dac biet la nhirng ngudi ngheo do gia luong thyc ngay cang tang va gia dau mo sut giam Theo danh gia cua Ngan hang The gidi, miic do ton thuong cua ngudi ngheo d khu vyc Trung Ddng la rat cao va so ngudi song d mue ngheo kho rat Idn Theo To chire lao dgng quoc te (ILO), nam 2009 ty le thit nghiep cua khu vuc Trung Ddng len tdi
20%), dat biet a Syria ty le that nghiep cua
Trang 7I Czsii i^&iSfi i-Kgiu VUL Li^&U i-'ilt., Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng - Pham Thanh Ha
gidi tre len tdi 73% Theo WB, ty le ngudi
ngheo cd thu nhap dudi 2 USD/ngay d
Trung Ddng nam 2009 la khoang 20%o, trong
do nhirng nudc cd ty le ngudi ngheo cao la
Al Cap (43%), Yemen (45%)
Ben canh nhirng tac dgng tieu cue tir ben
ngoai, sy dai dang cua chien tranh va xung
dot d Trung Dong van tiep dien trong nam
2009, dac biet la a khu vuc dai Gaza, van de
Israel - Palestine, van de hat nhan cua Iran,
bat on chinh tri va xa boi d Iraq Nhirng
cuoc xung dot va chien tranh nay dang tieu
tdn ciia Trung Dong mot lu(jng tien dang ke,
day ngudi dan cac nudc phai ehju xung dot
chien tranh vao tinh canh ddi ngheo cung
cue Theo tinh toan cua Strategic Foresight
Group (SFG), cac nudc phai chiu xung dot
chien tranh d Trung Ddng bao gom Ai Cap,
Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon,
Palestine, Qatar, Arap Xeut, Syria va UAE
da mat mat khoang 12 nghin ty USD trong
giai doan 1991-2010 Mdi gia dinh ngudi
dan Israel cd the tang them thu nhap len
4429 USD/nam trong nam 2009 ngay ca khi
Israel chi tra boi thudng cho toan bg dan ti
nan Palestine va xoa sach 150.000 khu ti nan
khdi Bd Tay neu nhu boa binh giiia Israel va
Palestine dugc thiet lap Hien nay, cd tdi
91%) ngudi dan Israel dang phai sdng trong
tinh trang mat on dinh ve an ninh Neu
khdng cd xung dot va chien tranh, thu nhap
quoc dan cua Iraq cd the da tang len 38 lan
so vdi hien nay, len tdi 2,2 nghin ty USD
Xung dot va chien tranh dang lam mat mat
nhirng thanh tyu tang trudng va phat trien
ciia khu vuc Trung Dong
3 DLF bao tinh hinh phat tri§n
nam 2010 cua khu VLPC chau Phi va
Trung Dong
a Khu vuc chdu Phi
* Kinh ti
Cho den nay, da cd rat nhieu danh gia va
du bao ve trien vgng phat trien ciia chau Phi trong nam 2010, trong do cd ca nhirng danh gia du bao cua cac ca quan chinh phu lan ca nhan, ciing nhu cac td chire da phuang qude
te Mae du cac danh gia va dy bao nay cd nhirng diem khac biet, nhung deu nhan dinh kinh te chau Phi trong nam 2010 se cd sy phye hoi nhanh chdng Theo dy bao cua IMF, vao nam 2010 kinh te chau Phi se tang trudng vdi tdc do 4%), trong dd chau Phi can Sahara se dat tdc do tang trudng 4,l%o - mot mirc tang trudng tuong ddi kha quan trong dieu kien nam 2009 nen kinh te chau luc nay gap rat nhieu khd khan Theo du bao cua Ngan hang The gidi, nam 2010 kinh te chau Phi can Sahara cd the dat tdc do tang trudng 3,9%o do thuong mai the gidi phuc hoi va cac nha dau tu nude ngoai tiep tuc quay trd lai chau Phi Nhirng du bao nay deu duac danh gia vao cudi nam 2009 kbi ma nen kinh te the gidi bat dau cd dau bieu phuc bdi
Phuc hdi kinh te d chau Phi trong nam
2010 mang tinh chat da dang Theo IMF, cac nudc phuc boi nhanh se la nhirng nudc xuat khau dau md, xuat khau tai nguyen khoang san, nguyen lieu va nhirng nudc cd nhiing bien phap dieu chinh kinh te thich hgp sau khung hoang Benin, Botswana, Cong hoa Trung Phi, Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea, Liberia, Mauritius, Nigeria, Angola, Senegal, Seychelles, Sudan, Tanzania, Zambia vaf Zimbabwe la nhirng nudc dugc danh gia la phuc hdi nhanh ban ca Cdn theo dy bao cua
WB, ngoai trir Nam Phi se dat mue tang
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PIII & TRUIVG DOXG so 04 (56) thang 04/2010
Trang 8Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng - Pham Thanh Ha Toan canh khu vi/c chau Phi
tru(7ng khiem ton vao nam 2010 (Nam Phi
nam 2010 se dat mirc tang trudng khoang
2%) theo dy bao cua WB va 1,7%) theo dy
bao ciia IMF so vdi mue tang trudng -2,2%o
cua nam 2008), cdn lai cac nxxac chau Phi
khac nhu Botswana, Seychelles va cae nudc
xuat khau dau liia nhu Angola, Nigeria deu
se dat toe do tang trudng nhanh ban nhieu
vao nam 2010 so vai nam 2009 Cac nudc
xuat khau dau md chau Phi cd the dat toe do
tang trudng 5,5%o vao nam 2010 (theo IMF)
va 4,9%) (theo WB) do gia dau the gidi tang
trd lai, trong khi cac nudc thu nhap trung
binh d chau Phi cd the se dat toe do tang truang 1,9% (theo IMF) va 3,5% (theo WB)
do miic cau the %\a\ tang trd lai va sy phuc
hoi cua nganh du lich va kieu hoi Theo du bao cua IMF, cac nudc thu nhap thap cd the dat toe do tang tru(3ng 5% va cac nudc de bi
ton thuang cd the dat toe do tang Xxuang 4%
vao nam 2010 do ddng von tu nhan nudc ngoai bat dau quay trdf lai va kieu hoi tiep tuc chay ve nude Dy bao trong nam 2010, kieu hoi chay ve chau Phi tang a miic do khiem ton, khoang 1,8%) sau kbi suy giam manh vao nam 2009
Bang 1 Trien vong kinh te chau Phi nam 2010 Cac chi so
Toe do tang truang GDP"(%)
Tdc do tang GDP dau nguai (%))
Tham hut tai khoan hien hanh
Lam phat
Du- bao cua IMF
4 2,7 -1,7 6,3
Du bao cua WB
3,8 2,7 -2,5 6,1
Ngudn: IMF (2009) vd WB (2009)
Trong nam 2010, mgi dy bao deu nhat chi
rang gia ca d chau Phi van tiep tyc duac
kiem soat va tang d miic 6,3%) (theo IMF) va
6,1% (theo WB) Tham hyt tai khoan hien
hanh chi d mirc l,7%o GDP (theo IMF) va
-2,5% GDP (theo WB) Su cai thien can can
hien hanh d chau Phi la do cd sy phye hoi
cua cau trong nudc, dac biet la dau tu, dong
thai cd sy phuc hdi cua nganh du lich va
thuong mai Chi cd mot so nucrc tiep tuc rai
vao tham hut tai khoan bien hanh nang nl la
Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde,
Comoros, Cong hoa dan chu Congo,
Djibouti, Gambia, Ghana, Lesotho, Liberia,
Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Phuc hoi kinh te d chau Phi vao nam 2010
cd nhieu nguyen nhan, cd the ke den la:
Thir nhdt, phuc hoi kinh te the gidi trong
nam 2010 la nguyen nhan chinh khien kinh
te chau Phi trong nam 2010 cd nhirng dau hieu sang sua Vao nam 2010 kinh te the gidi dugc dy bao la se tang trudng d miic 3,l%o
so vdi mure - 1,1 %o cua nam nay (theo IMF), cdn theo WB kinh te the gidi nam 2010 cd
the tang trudng 2,1%
Thu hai, sy phye hoi ciia gia dau md va
mot so loai nguyen lieu, khoang san tren thi trudng the gidi se giup boat dgng xuat khau cua khu vyc chau Phi hoi phuc Theo du bao cua Ngan hang The gidi, thuang mai the gidi trong nam 2010 se dat toe do tang trudng 4,3% (theo IMF la 2,5%) Dieu nay khiln thuong mai chau Phi ciing cd nhiing dau
hieu phuc hoi nhanh chdng, \d\ tdc do tang
10 Tgp chi nghien cuu aiAU Pin & TRUIVG DOIVG so 04 (56) thang 04/2010
Trang 9Tran Thi Lan Hyong - Pham Thanh Ha
trudng thuong mai dy bao la d mirc 9,4%o
nam 2010 Ke ca nhirng nude xuat khau dau
md, xuat khau khoang san, nguyen lieu ndng
nghiep, hang hoa phi nhien lieu a chau Phi
deu se dugc hudng Igi tii viee tang.gia ca
Sau mot nam gia ca cac mat hang nay deu
dat mire tang trudng am, vao nam 2010 gia
dau md dy kien se tang khoang 24,3%o, gia
hang hoa phi nhien lieu tang khoang 2,4%o ,
nguyen lieu ndng nghiep tang 2,3%o, sat thep
tang 6,2%o tinh bang dong USD
Thic ba, ddng von dau tu nudc ngoai tiep
tuc quay trd lai chau Phi do nen kinh te cac
nudc cdng nghiep phat trien phuc hoi nhanh
chdng Dieu nay khien boat dgng dau tu san
xuat cua chau Phi nhgn nhip trd lai, nang
suat lao dgng tiep tuc dugc nang len, that
nghiep giam, thu nhap tang va tir dd cd tac
dgng tich cue den tdc do tang trudng GDP
cua chau luc Theo dy bao cua IMF, vao nam
2010 chau Phi cd the se thu hut dugc khoang
45,9 ty USD vdn tu nhan tir nudc ngoai,
trong dd se cd khoang 32,2 ty USD von dau
tu true tiep nudc ngoai, 8,5 ty USD vdn dau
tu gian tiep nudc ngoai, cdn lai la cac ddng
vdn khac nhu vien trg nudc ngoai vv
Thir tu, cong dong the gidi trong nam
2010 se tiep tuc hgp tac giup chau Phi phat
trien kinh te Vien trg nudc ngoai se vao
chau Phi nhieu hon va hieu qua hon Them
vao do, neu nhu trong nam 2009 vang bdng
mot so doi tac \an trong viec giup chau Phi
khac phuc khung hoang nhu My, EU, Trung
QuIc, G8, OECD , thi nam 2010 cac nudc
nay se tiep tuc quay tra lai chau Phi vdi
nhirng gdi tai chinh trg giiip va nhirng tu van
chinh sach bieu qua Dieu nay giiip chau Phi
cd them dieu kien thuan Igi de tiep tuc day manh tdc do tang trudng kinh te
Riii ro cdn tdn tgi: Tuy vien canh phat
trien kinh te chau Phi nam 2010 cd nhieu kha quan, nhung chau Phi van phai doi mat vdi rat nhieu rui ro trong phat trien kinh te Riii
ro trudc bet la chau Phi tiep tuc pbai ganh nhirng khoan ng nudc ngoai chdng chat Vdi khoan dy trir ngoai te nhd be khoang 340,6
ty USD vao nam 2010, chi xap xi bang dy trii ngoai te cua hai nudc Brazil va Mexico,
54 nudc chau Phi rat khd tra dugc ng nudc ngoai trong thai gian ngan Hon the nira, nhirng van de ddi ngheo, dich benh, giao due thap van deo duoi chau Phi, khien chau luc nay khd Idng dat dugc toe do tang trudng nhanh va ben virng Ngoai te tu du lich, kieu bdi, FDI, vdn dau tu gian tiep ciing cd the sut giam neu nhu moi trudng chinh tri xa hdi cua chau Phi rai vao bat dn dmh Ndi tdm lai, de phat trien ben viing, chau Phi cdn rat nhieu viec can phai lam, va cong ddng quoc
te thyc sy phai chung tay giup chau Phi cung phat trien bang nhu'ng bien phap trg giup hieu qua hon nira
* Chinh tri
Trong nam 2010, the gidi se chirng kien nhirng nd luc dan xep xung dot va dn djnh hoa binh d chau Phi Tai Hgi nghi thucmg dinh lan thir 14 cua AU td chire d Ethiopia thang 2 nam 2010, chu tich AU - dng B.Mutharika cho rang "Chau Phi se quyet tam tu giai quyet cac van de cua minh, trong
do cd van de xung dot va ndi chien de ngudi chau Phi phat trien chau Phi"
Nhirng tien bg dat dugc ve chinh tri trong nam 2009 se la ca sd de chau Phi tim kiem
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PIII & TRUiXG Dd\G so 04 (56) thang 04/2010 i l l
Trang 10Tran Thi Lan Hu'dng - Pham Thanh Ha Toan canh khu vdc chau Phi
sy dn dinh chinh tri trong nam tiep theo
Trong nam 2009, Kenya va Zimbabwe da
dat duac nhirng tien bg dang ke khi da thanh
lap dugc mot chinh phii doan ket dan tgc
Qua trinh tim kiem boa binh d Dafur Sudan
cung cd tien trien khi cac ben ngoi vao dam
phan va chinh phu chia se quyen luc df Sudan
duac thanh lap Cac nha lanh dao khu vyc
cung da ban den nhirng giai phap xay dyng
be thdng va dieu tiet luat phap d tieu khu vuc
va tren toan khu vuc chau Phi, thiet lap moi
trudng boa binh, dn dmh de thu hut dau tu
nudc ngoai, cung nhu thue day su phat trien
kinh te dn dinh va ben viing, tang cudng sy
canh tranh kinh te va thuong mai lanh manh
Trong nam 2009, Ban chap hanh AU cung
da thanh cdng trong viec gan ket chau Phi
vdi CO che dieu hanh nen kinh te the gidi
bang viec dua chau Phi tham dy Hgi nghi
cap cao G20, cung co vi tri cua chau Phi vdi
G8 nham ddi phd khung hoang kinh te toan
cau Nhd nhiing ket qua dat duac tren day,
nam 2010 se hira hen nhirng tien bg chinh tri
mdi d chau Phi Trong nam 2010, chau Phi
quyet tam se td chire tot cac cuoc bau cu d
Sudan, Nigeria, Cote dTvoice , Burkina
Faso, Togo, Ghinea, Madargascar, Ruanda,
Cong boa Trung Phi, Cameroon, Chad va
nhieu nudc khac, dong thai day manh chong
tham nhiing d cac nudc chau Phi
Ben canh mang sang cua nen chinh tri
chau Phi trong nam 2010, chung ta tilp tuc
phai chirng kien nhirng bit on tiep tuc dien
ra d mot sd nudc Vao thdi diem dau nam
2010, chau Phi van gap khd khan va bl tic
trong viec tim kiem mot thoa thuan boa
binh d Madagascar, Nigeria Nhilu cuoc
xung dot sac tgc, ton giao van biing no, nhu
d Somalia Them vao do, chau Phi dang phai doi mat vcifi viec mang lucii khung bo quoc te Al Qaeda lai dung sy mat on dinh d mot so nu(7c, dac biet a khu vyc Bae Phi, de tang cudfng cac boat dgng khiing bo Ngoai
ra, nhiing rui ro chinh tri ma chau Phi cd the phai ganh chiu trong nam 2010 cd the ke den la:
+ Nam Phi da dau tu hang ty USD de chao ddn World Cup 2010 Day la ca hgi de Nam Phi md rgng quan he vdi cac nudc, thu hut dau tu, khach du lich, ma rong san xuat kinh doanh, tao viec lam Tuy nhien, viec to chu'c World Cup ciing cd the xay ra nhiing boat dgng khiing bo, xung dot, bao luc, lam mat on dinh chinh tri - xa hgi a Nam Phi va mot so nudc lan can Ngoai ra, nhirng bat on chinh tri trong nu<D'c dudi sy lanh dao cua dng Zuma ciing cd the xay ra neu nhu nudc nay chua cd giai phap ngan chan su bat dong giiia Dang Cong san va ANC ciing nhu mot
so dang phai khac d Nam Phi
+ Cuoc bau cu d Sudan dy kien dien ra vao thang 4 nam 2010 cd the se xay ra nhirng bat on chinh tri Day la cuoc bau cir dau tien cua nuac nay trong hon hai thap ky
qua Tuy nhien cho Xa\ cuoi nam 2009, cd
khoang 20 chinh dang d Sudan da de doa tly chay cac cuoc bau cu nay neu tdng thdng Sudan Omar al-Beshir khdng thyc hien cai each Cac dang phai nay vao cuoi nam 2009
da hgp tai mien Nam Sudan va keu ggi sua doi tat ca luat lien quan den ty do va cai each dan chii cho phii hgp vai hien phap lam thdi
cua nxxac nay Day la cuoc bau cii dugc tien
hanh giira hai dang: Dang Quoc dai (NCP) d mien Bae va Phong trao giai phdng nhan dan
12 Tgp chi nghien ciru aiAU PIII & TRUIVG DOIVG so 04 (56) thang 04/2010