phong trao Mac-xit lanh dao va cd dudng ldi dd'i ngoai than thien vdi phe XHCN va chd'ng TBCN. Va khung hoang ddu liia cung cho tha'y mot mat cac nUdc OPEC da biet sii dung vu khi da[r]
Trang 1QUAN HE QUOC TE
TINH HINH NirdC MY VA THE Cl6l SAU
CHIEN TRANH MET NAM: MOT SO Y KIEN BAN DAU
Mdt trong nhUng nhan dinh
can ban ciia chiing ta ve tinh
hinh My va the gidi sau khi
Chien tranh Viet Nam ket thiic la "My
da suy yeu nhieu ve quan sU, chinh tri,
kinh te, tai chinh, keo theo ca the gidi
tu ban chii nghia Mn sau vao mdt thdi
ky tdng khiing hoang toan dien va
khdng phUdng ciiu chUa", "tinh hinh
each mang the gidi ngay nay thuan ldi
hdn bad gid he't va dang diing trUde
nhiing trien vong td't dep", va "dac diem
cua phong trao ddc lap dan toe ngay
nay la ed xu the ngay cang gan hen vdi
chii nghia xa hdi.'" Nhan dinh dd mang
tinh khai quat cho ea mdt thdi ky each
mang sau nam 1975
Tuy nhien, sau 30 nam, tinh hinh
the gidi va khu viic da ed nhUng thay
ddi Idn cung nhu nhUng tiep nd'i dang
ke, va ve cd ban khdng phu hdp vdi
nhan dinh ke tren Diing la CNTB,
nha't la nude My, lam vao khiing
hoang tram trong nhUng khdng ed
nghia la khdng ed Id'i thoat Trong khi
dd phong trao each mang da ed nhUng
budc phat trien Idn nhUng ddng thdi
cung chiia diing nhUng khd khan Idn
ma viec khdng xii ly kip thdi da dan
den nhieu hau qua nghiem trong
Lich sii la mdt cude tranh luan khdng
cd hdi ket.^ Viec phan xet lich sii bao gid
cung rat phife tap, bdi vi tU duy cua hau
the khac tU duy eiia mdt thdi da qua, va
nhat la lai khdng the ap dat tu duy ciia
mot thdi dd'i vdi tU duy cua mot thdi
khac Vdi xuat phat diem nhU vay, bai
Ts N g u y e n Vu Tiing
Hoc vien Ngoai giao
vie't nay xin de cap den mdt sd diem ve
mat hoc thuat, gidi thieu mot sd' nghien ciiu lich sii quan he qud'e te gan day hen quan den giai doan "hau Viet Nam" Cac nghien eiiu sii hoe nay - chu yeu diia tren nhiing nguon tai lieu mdi dUde giai mat tii cac kho lUu trU ciia cac nUde XHCN Ddng Au va Lien Xd cu My va cac nUde phUdng Tay khac - da chd chiing ta mdt biic tranh md ta tinh hinh the gidi phUe tap hdn nhieu so vdi eac md ta chinh thiic tu trUde den nay
Tam v6c sii suy yeu ciia My
Trong thap ky 70 va 80 ciia the ky
XX, that bai d Viet Nam, hda diu vdi phe XHCN, va cii sd'e dau liia da gay cho My nhUng tac ddng rat tieu ciic
Tha't bai d Viet Nam danh vao uy tin ye
siic manh eua My: ve quan sii My lan dau tien trong lich sii thua mdt nUde
"hang ba" tren the gidi (ldi eua Kissinger) sau khi thii nghiem ta't ca cac chien lUdc sii dung vu khi thdng thUdng; ve ngoai giao, My khdng gianh dUcJc thang ldi tren ban dam phan vdi Vidt Nam va khdng dat dUde ca "hda binh va danh dii" (cung theo ldi Kissinger), va that bai trong viec sii dung cac cdng cu ngoai giao nUdc Idn (sii dung silc ep ciia Lien Xd va Trung Qud'e dd'i vdi Viet Nam trong dam phan tai Paris) de gay siic ep vdi Viet Nam tren ban dam phan Neu so vdi ldi tuyen bd' cua Kennedy: "My di bat cii dau, lam bat cii viec gi, ehd'ng lai bat cif
ke thu nao, giiip dd bat cif nUde ban be
Trang 2nao de bao ve tii do", thi nUdc My giUa
thap ky 70 da suy yeu ra't nhieu
Vdi viec sa lay d Viet Nam, My edn
tao ra mot ed hdi vang cho cac nUde
ddng minh phUdng Tay vUdn len ve
mat kinh te va chinh tri Neu nhU nam
1970 My chiem 38% tdng san lUdng
kinh te the gidi, thi con sd' dd la 25%
nam 1980; trong khi dd EC tang tif 26
len 30% va Nhat Ban tif 8 len 10%
Nhu vay, kinh te' My tii: chd Idn hdn
kinh te EU va Nhat cdng lai thi den
nam 1980 da kem hdn.^ Dd la chUa ke
den thiie te khac la kinh te My - mot
phan do chi phi qua Idn d Viet Nam - bi
lam vae khiing hoang va lam phat vdi
ket qua la ddng ddla suy yeu va khdng
the lam chd diia cho he thd'ng tai chinh
the gidi: he thd'ng tien te Bretton
Woods diia tren sii thd'ng tri eiia ddng
ddla My da sup dd nam 1973
Hoa diu danh da'u sU that bai eua
My trong viec ngan chan Lien Xd phat
trien ve mat kinh te va quan sii: Lien
Xd da dat dUdc can bang chien lUdc ve
vu khi nguyen tii vdi My (NhU vay, ket
hdp vdi Viet Nam, My bi yeu the ca ve
mat vu khi thdng thudng va vu khi
nguyen tii) Hdn nUa, d Chau Au, hda
diu edn la mdt sii chap nhan thiie te ve
sU Idn manh eiia Lien Xd, the hien d
viec hiep dinh Helsinki nam 1975
chinh thiic cdng nhan dUdng bien gidi
chinh tri mdi d Chau Au hinh thanh
sau nam 1945, cung nhU bad hieu sii
doe lap ngay cang tang len ciia Tay Au
dd'i vdi My Tif nam 1970 Willy Brandt
thudc dang Dan chii xa hdi Tay Diic len
lam thii tUdng, thiic day quan he hUu
nghi vdi Ddng Diic va Lien Xd trong
chien lUcJc Ostpolitik (hda diu vdi
phUdng Ddng) Va hda diu edn tao ra
mot tinh hinh mdi, trong dd Lien Xd
phat hu>' anh hUdng manh me d eac
nUde dang phat trien Cac cude each
mang d Angola, Grenada, Ethiopia,
Mozambique, Ddng Dudng,
Afghanistan, Nicaragua, deu do cac
phong trao Mac-xit lanh dao va cd dudng ldi dd'i ngoai than thien vdi phe XHCN va chd'ng TBCN
Va khung hoang ddu liia cung cho
tha'y mot mat cac nUdc OPEC da biet sii dung vu khi dau liia de bao ve
quyen \6i cua minh va gay siic ep ve
mat ngoai giao dd'i vdi cac nUde phUdng Tay, vdi My tren nhieu va'n
de, nha't la Trung ddng va Israel My
da khdng the ehi huy mdt nhdm cac nUdc - phan Idn thudc the gidi thii ba
va than My ve mat chinh tri - trong viec bao dam nguon dau liia vdi gia re
va dn dinh Chii nghia thiic dan mdi
da hi tan cdng vao ban chat
Nhu vay, suy yeu eua My va the gidi TBCN la mot thiic te lich sii ciia tinh hinh the gidi giiia thap ky 70 va nha't la sau nam 1975 Thiie te nay edn dUde khang dinh qua nhUng dien bien chUa tiing ed trdng lich sii chinh tri My: vu Watergate da lam Nixon phai tijf chiic trong nhuc nha va qua
dd Qudc hdi My cung gay dUcJe siic ep giam dang ke quyen lUe eiia tdng thd'ng, nha't la quyen tuyen chien.' Neu so vdi mdt giai doan dai tif sau nam 1945, CNTB diing dau la My da suy yeu dang ke sau 30 nam
Nhiifng d i e u n g h i c h ly tii sxi suy
y e u c u a p h i f d n g T a y NhUng neu sii suy yeu ciia phUdng Tay, nha't la My, la mdt thiic te de nhin nhan, thi ddng thdi mdt thiie te khac cung da hinh t h a n h trong giai doan nay, tuy khd nhan ra hdn Dd la tac ddng "tich ciic" ciia sU suy yeu dd'i
vdi My va phUdng Tay ThiC nhdt, sU
suy yeu da tao ra tam ly va tiep dd la chinh sach thoat khdi khiing hoang Vao nUa sau thap ky 70, dan dan xuat hien trong chinh trUdng cac nUdc phUdng Tay nhUng xu the bao thii mot mat ling hd vai trd Idn hdn eiia khu viic kinh te tU nhan, mat khac chii trUdng gay cang thang qud'e te chd'ng
Trang 3eac nude XHCN D a n g Bao thii va
T h a t c h e r len n a m quyen d Anh, d a n g
Cong hda va R e a g a n len n a m quyen d
My (khdng ke trUdc dd, C h i n h quyen
C a r t e r ke tU niia s a u n h i e m ky tdng
thdng da chuyen s a n g t h i e n hUu ea ve
chinh sach dd'i ndi va chinh sach dd'i
ngoai) deu ap d u n g chinh sach eifng
r a n dd'i vdi Lien Xd va phe XHCN Dd'i
dau toan dien da d a n t h a y t h e hda diu
qud'e te va Chien t r a n h L a n h da quay
trd lai tiJf cud'i t h a p ky 70
D a n g chii y la sii xua't h i e n ve m a t
t u tUdng ciia cai goi la t r a o luu T a n
bao thii h i e n n a y d a n g long h a n h d
My.'' Ve c a n b a n T a n bao t h u la sU
ket hdp giiia h a i n h a n h ciic doan
t r o n g ca p h a i t a va p h a i hUu d My
Dilng trUde thiie te nUdc My hi suy
yeu t o a n dien, mot n h d m nhd eac tri
thiic p h a i Ta, t h u d c trUdng p h a i Tii do
ciia My da trd n e n b a t m a n vdi xu
h u d n g c h i n h t r i va c h i n h sach ma
theo ho da c h u y e n s a n g "thien ta" d
trong nUdc My.'' Hdn nUa, ho cho r a n g
suy yeu sife m a n h q u a n sii da dan den
suy giam q u y e n liic va vai trd ciia My
t r e n t h e gidi T r o n g nhUng n a m 1970,
nhUng t r i thiic T a n bao thii da cdng
tac vdi ThUcing n g h i si d a n g D a n chii
H e n r y J a c k s o n , la mdt chinh tri gia
ndi t i e n g chd'ng cdng Va vao t h a p ky
80 k h i Ronald R e a g a n ndi len va trd
t h a n h tdng thd'ng, nhUng ngiidi Tan
bad thii da h o a n t o a n c h u y e n s a n g
ling hd d a n g Cdng hda, n a m giU cac
chiic vu cao t r o n g c h i n h quyen ciia
d a n g n a y do cd sii t r i i n g hap t r o n g y
tUdng va muc t i e u c h i n h sach ddi ndi
va dd'i ngoai: giam vai trd ciia n h a
nude ve m a t k i n h te va xa hdi, t a n g
chi phi q u a n su, day m a n h chay d u a
vu t r a n g va c a n g t h a n g t h e gidi, t a p
hdp liic lUdng chd'ng Lien Xd, ciing cd
dia vi ba chii ciia My trdn t h e gidi
C h i n h sach gay c a n g t h a n g va chay
dua vu t r a n g eiia My da gay ra mot sd
tac ddng r a t q u a n t r o n g ea ve k i n h td
chinh tri, va q u a n sii Ve m a t kinh te, viec C h i n h quyen R e a g a n chap n h a n
t h a m h u t n g a n sach, do tien do ciia
vao cude chay d u a vu t r a n g t r e n thiic
te da la mdt h a n h ddng kich thich
k i n h te theo hUdng t r o n g cung (supply-side b a n chat ciia Reaganomics): cac cdng ty Idn (nhat la cac td hdp cdng n g h i e p - q u a n sU) dude cap vd'n, giam t h u e , va dUde chinh phii d a t h a n g de t a p t r u n g vao cac linh viic q u a n sii lien q u a n chat che den n g h i e n cUu va iing d u n g cdng nghe cao t r o n g dd ed cdng nghe thdng tin.' Ket qua la da cd dot pha trong viec chuyen n e n k i n h te theo hifdng
p h a t t r i e n ve c h a t - (theo hifdng kinh te' tri thUe h a u cdng nghiep), khac xa vdi viec Lien Xd v a n d a n g p h a t trien theo chieu rong va vao nhUng linh viic vd'n la dac diem ciia thdi ky cdng nghiep hda n h u t h a n , t h e p xi mang Ndi each khac, chay dua vu t r a n g
da tao ra tac ddng kep Mdt mat nd thuc day k i n h te p h a t t n e n thdng qua dau t u vao nhUng n g a n h miii nbon va
la mdt bd p h a n cua mdt chinb sach kinh te tdng the theo hifdng trong cung va p h a t h u y hdn nUa tinh n a n g ddng ciia k h u viic kinh te t u n h a n
M a t khac, nd day Lien Xd vao mot con dudng p h a t trien khd k h a n hdn, va do
dd khac sau hdn nhUng yeu td kem hoan t h i e n ciia mdt nen kinh td tap
t r u n g Cung chay dua vu t r a n g , nhUng Lien Xd da k h d n g ket nd'i dUdc
p h a t t r i e n trong cdng nghiep qudc phdng vdi nen k i n h te ndi chung, lam cho chay d u a vu t r a n g trd t h a n h ganh
n a n g cho n e n k i n h te Tuy dat dUdc can b a n g vu k h i h a t n h a n vdi My Lien Xd da phai chi tdi 25" tdng san
p h a m qud'e d a n cho t h a n h tUu nay." Nghien ciiu va che tao vu khi h a t
n h a n r a t td'n kem, nhUng vioc duy t n chiing t r o n g t r a n g t h a i sAn sang chien da'u va phiit trien cac he thd'ng phdng (may ba>- nem bom chien luoc ten lii.i
Trang 4dan dao chien lUcJc va chien thuat, va
tau ngam nguyen tii) ciing nhU he
thd'ng chi huy cung ra't ton kem
Trong khi dd, can bang vu khi hat
nhan lai chi ed tac dung ve mat tam
ly: xay diing kho vu khi hat nhan
khdng ddng nghia vdi viec sii dung
chiing, va neu sii dung thi chi can mdt
so' lUdng nhd trong kho vu khi dd cung
ed the hiiy diet ca trai da't Do dd Lien
Xd dudng nhu da hi rdi vao "bay" eua
My khi My chii trUdng tang eUdng
cang thang qud'e te va chay dua vu
trang trong vdng hai ciia Chien tranh
Lanh, bat dau tif cud'i thap ky 70 va
dau thap ky 80
Thi2 hai, cuoc khiing hoang dau liia
cung tao ra mdt cii bich mdi cho nen
kinh te TBCN Viec giam sU le thudc
vao dau liia thdng qua cai tien ky
thuat theo hUdng tiet kiem nang
lUdng va tang dau tU vao nghien ciiu
va phat trien (R&D) eac loai nang
lUdng thay the da trd thanh ddng liic
mdi cho nen kinh te eua eac nUde
nhap khau dau, nhat la Nhat Ban, va
phan nao la My, va tii dd lam giam
bdt siic ep kinh te va chinh tri eiia
OPEC dd'i vdi cac nUdc tU ban phat
trien Khdng phai la dieu ngau nhien
khi sau khi khiing hoang dau liia nd
ra Nhat Ban lai trd thanh nUde dau
tien dat ducic dia vi cUdng quo'c kinh
te tuy van le thudc hoan toan vao
nguon dau liia nhap khau
Ngoai ra ngay trong nganh cdng
nghiep d;\u liia, cac nUdc tU ban phat
trien cung ngay cang thu IcJi tif viec
tap trung vao cai tien va nam chat
viec san xua't nhUng san pham che
bien tii dau thd Ndi mot each khac,
cac nUde xua't khdu dau dUdc IcJi mdt
thi cac nUdc che bien dau dUde Icii ga'p
hai: tii nam 1967 den 1972, cac cdng
ty che bien dau Idn ciia phUdng Tay
lai 7 t\' mot nam thi lai rieng trong
nam 1973 la 11,7 va nam 1974 la 16,4
ty ddla." Dd la chUa ke den viec cac
nude TBCN ve mat thiic te dU(3c hUdng IcJi tii nguon tien doi dao ma eac nUde xua't khau dau lUa cd Cac cdng ty Idn tren linh vUc budn ban vU khi, xay diing, hang khdng dan dung, tai chinh, bao hiem, giai tri, ciia My
va cac nUdc phUdng Tay ngay cang ed nhieu ddn dat hang tijf cac nUde xuat khau dau liia NhU vay, khiing hoang dau Ilia d mot khia canh nao dd, lai tao them nhieu cd hdi cdng an viec lam cho cac nUdc TBCN Cac nUde xuat khau dau liia cd the ed nhieu thu nhap, nhUng dieu dd khdng cd nghia
la ho ed the trd thanh nhUng nUde hien dai va van minh Ddt tang gia dau Ilia hien nay cang khang dinh xu hudng nay: gia dau len van khdng giam di, tang trUdng kinh te the gidi
va nhieu nUdc xua't khau dau liia van
be tac ve dUdng ldi phat trien kinh te
-xa hoi ciia da't nUde
Nhu vay, khi My ndi rieng va phe TBCN ndi chung rdi vad tinh trang khiing hoang toan dien, dieu dd khdng
cd nghia la CNTB lam vao tinh trang khdng ed Id'i thoat Trai lai, sii phue hdi eiia tU tudng ciic doan trong chinh tri TBCN va viec quay trd lai ly luan kinh dien ve kinh te thi trUdng da tad
ra Id'i thoat mdi cho CNTB Mdt sd' gidi nghien ciiu tham chi da cho rang: tif nam 1974-1984, do khiing hoang toan dien nen My da ed mot cude cai
td ve kinh te va chinh tri
S\i p h a t t r i e n ciia phong t r a o each
m a n g b cac nitdc d a n g p h a t trien
Viec Lien Xd tang cUdng phat huy anh hudng d cac nUde dang phat trien cung tao them ganh nang dd'i vdi nen kinh te Lien Xd, ben canh ganh nang chay dua vu trang Cd the cho rang
viec giiip db each mang the gidi la mot
nhiem vu ludn di ciing vdi vi tri eiia Lien Xd tren tU each la lanh dao phe XHCN the gidi NhUng nhiing nghien ciiu gan day cho tha'y rang cac phong
Trang 5trao each mang d mdt so' nUdc thudc
the gidi thii ba khdng hoan toan mang
tinh each mang chan chinh, cung nhu
Lien Xd cung khdng hoan toan nhiet
tinh va san sang giiip dd mdt sd'
phong trao each mang dd Ngoai ra,
mot sd cude each mang khac lai khdng
cd lien he gi tdi phe XHCN nhUng v l n
bi My gdp vao chien lUdc ehd'ng cdng
chung Hai trUdng hdp dien hinh la
Afghanistan va Iran
Khi cude dao chinh chd'ng chinh
phii trung lap Mohammed Daoud do
cac si quan quan doi dUdc dao tao d
Lien Xd tien hanh nd ra trong thang 4
nam 1978, Lien Xd hoan toan bi bat
ngd NhUng mdt khi chinh phii than
Lien Xd ducic lap nen d Kabul, Lien Xd
budc phai cdng nhan va cung cap vien
trd, du chi diing d vien tr6 tai chinh
va ky thuat vdi miic do ban che Sau
cude each mang thang Tu,
Afghanistan rdi vad tinh trang bat dn
dinh do mau thuan ndi bd dang Cong
san cam quyen ket hdp vdi cac yeu td'
sac tdc (giiia eac nhdm Khalq va
Pareham, Pashtun) va tdn giao (Hdi
giao dn hda va ciic doan ciing cac
nhanh khac trong tdn giao nay).'°
Thang 3 nam 1979, Tdng thd'ng
Mohammed Taraki chinh thUe yeu
eau Lien Xd dUa quan vao de dn dinh
tinh hinh NhUng Tdng bi thU
Bre-gid-nhep da tra ldi diit khoat: "Chiing ta
phai xem xet va'n de nay mdt each
toan dien, can nhac ca mat thuan va
khdng thuan, va tdi ndi thang vdi
ddng chi rang: Chiing tdi khdng the
lam the Dieu nay se chi dUa chiing ta
sa vao bay ciia ke thii ciia eac ddng
ehi va ke thu ciia chiing tdi."" Den
thang Chin, Taraki bi Hafizullah
Amin dao chinh va Afghanistan cang
rdi vao tinh trang hdn loan Ngay 27
thang 12, quan dpi Lien Xd tien vao
-Afghanistan khdi phue lai chinh
quyen dan chii nhan dan va difa
Babrak Karmal len lam tdng thd'ng
Quye't dinh eua Lien Xd dUde dUa ra trong mdt bd'i canh ga'p gap va chii yeu diia tren lap luan rang "eac thanh qua ciia each mang va chinh quyen dan chii tien bd d Afghanistan dang hi de doa.'" Tuy nhien, trong thiie te Lien Xd lo ngai rang Chinh quyen eiia Amin cd mdt chinh sach ddc lap hdn vdi Lien Xd
va do dd cau ket chat che hdn vdi Trung Qudc, Pakistan, va cd the la My do dd anh hudng den an ninh ciia Lien Xd Ket qua la cac sii kien trong chinh tri noi bd eiia Afghanistan, vdi nhiing Id-gich rieng ciia mdt cude ndi chien vdi eac yeu td' sac tdc va tdn giao, hi dat vao trong nhUng tinh toan chien lUdc toan eau eiia Lien Xd, ket hdp vdi y thUe he
va bd'i canh quan he Xd - My dang phat trien thed hudng cang thang Lien Xd do
dd can thiep vao Afghanistan, ngay ea khi liic lUdng quan sii chUa san sang, Afghanistan da md dau cho mdt sii can thiep td'n kem ca ngifdi va eiia ddi vdi Lien Xd trong hdn mdt thap ky
Cung can phai nhan manh mdt thiie te nUa la sU Idn manh ciia Lien
Xd va phe XHCN lai day tdi cau ket My-Trung Til nam 1970 tro di My va Trung Qud'e ngay cang xich lai gan nhau hdn trong viec lap lien minh tren thiie cha't chd'ng lai Lien Xd Chi rieng viec dd'i dau vdi Trung Qud'e cung tao them ganh nang cho Lien Xd: neu trong nam 1960, Lien Xd phai duy tri 12 sU doan tren vung bien gidi vdi Trung Qudc, thi con sd dd la 25 nam 1969 va 45 nam 1973 Nam 1969 Lien Xd trien khai 200 may Bay chien da'u thi con sd' nay la 1200 cung vdi
120 ten Ilia dan dao chien thuat SS-11 trong nam 1973.'"
Cac sii kien d Iran cung cd nhUng phat trien dac thii va khdng hoan toan lien quan den nhan dinh chung ve phong trao each mang the gidi tif sau nam 1975 Tren thiie te, khi giao chii Ayatollah Khomeini lanh dao cude each
mang d Iran, lat do nha vua Shah va
Trang 6len nam quyen, dang Cdng san Iran
(Tudeh) bi Ddi tii ve Cong hda dan ap
da man Che do mdi d Tehran tuy
chd'ng My nhUng lai la mot che do than
quyen, hudng tdi xay diing mdt chinh
the do Hdi giao cUc doan lanh dao (tiic
la khdng the tue) d Iran Tuy nhien,
cude each mang Hdi giao d Iran - vdi
ket qua la lam ma't di che dd Shah than
My - cung khdng cd tac ddng cd tinh
quyet dinh dd'i vdi chinh sach ciia My d
khu -vUc Trung Ddng va chinh sach
toan eau Viec sinh vien Iran tan cdng
tda Dai sii My, bat nhan 'vien ngoai
giao lam con tin, va that bai eua cude
giai ciiu con tin eiia My da lam cho
chinh quyen Carter mat mat ca trong
nude va the gidi Cac the liic cUc doan
thudc ea hai nhanh Dan chii va Cdng
hda nhan sii kien nay da tap hdp nhau
lai trong nhdm Tan bao thii - nhU da
neu d tren - va cang quye't tam gay
cang thang, pha hda hoan qud'e te va
chd'ng Lien Xd hdn nUa
T h a y Idfi k e t l u a n
Dudng nhu van cd the tim dUde mot
sd' lien he giUa tinh hinh the gidi hien
tai vdi nhUng dieu xay ra each day 30
nam tii sau khi Chien tranh Viet Nam
ket thiic Afghanistan va nha't la Iraq
cho tha'y My tuy manh len, tuy Tan bao
thii mong mud'n My mai duy tri dia vi
ba chii bang siic manh quan sii, nhUng
My van be tac trong cac cude xung dot
khu viic: cude chien tranh vi "trai tim
va khd'i de" (mind and heart) van la mot
dieu My khdng the thanh cdng Tinh
hinh phiie tap do xung dot sac tdc, tdn
giao van dai dang, ba't ke cac cuoc each
mang theo hUdng than quyen, XHCN,
hay "dan chii hda" va cude da'u tranh vi
hda binh phat trien va tien bd van
khdng ngiing tien trien
Md'i lien he nay do dd cd the chiing td
sii tdn tai ciia mot so' ddng chay chinh
ciia lich sii quan he qudc te Theo dd, ta
ed the tha'y rang (i) quan he giiia cac
nUde Idn v l n chiem vi tri cd tinh chi phd'i; (ii) tinh than dan toe va ldi ich dan toe van la mot dong liic to Idn trong quan he qudc te; va (iii) nhieu khi nhUng dien bien trong noi bd cua mot nUdc nhd ciing cd the lam phiic tap them md'i quan he giiia cac nUdc Idn
v a neu nhu vay viec theo ddi va danh gia tinh hinh qud'e te can ed mdt nhan quan dai ban va toan dien, khdng de nhUng sU kien trUde mat chi phd'i each nhin bao quat va toan canh ve tinh hinh the gidi va quan he qud'e te
v a nhu vay, trong bd'i canh the gidi ludn thay ddi, each danh gia tinh hinh qudc te diia tren chii nghia yeu nUde
va quyen ldi dan toe de tii dd lam cd sd cho viec hoach dinh va trien khai chinh sach dd'i ngoai theo phUdng cham "di ba't bien, iing van bien" do
Hd Chii tich day chiing ta cang can phai dUde de cao •
Chd thich:
1) Dang Cong san Viet Nam, Nghi quyet Dai hoi lan thii
Tu DCS'VN, (Ha Noi: Nha x u t t ban Sti thftt, 1976), trang 170-173
2) Xem James Blight (et al) Argument without End: In Search of Answers to the Vietnam Tragedy, (Washington: Public Affairs, 1999)
:i) Trong Martin Walker, The Cold War: A History (New
York: Henry Holt and Company, 1995), trang 241 Tham hut kep (ngan sach va thUOng mai) deu dat miic
ky luc 23 ty (1971) va 10,7 ty (1970) Nguon da dan 4) O cap tha'p hOn, nhOlng chien luoc gia nhu Kissinger cung hi that sung vi nhiing hoat dong ngoai giao bi coi
la di ngiiOc vdi cac gia tri dan chu My
.5) Xem Nguyen Vii Tung, "Tim hieu chil nghia Tan bao thu," Tap chi Nghien ciiu quo'c te, so 3/2004
6) Bruce Bartlett, "The Rise of Neoconservatism," (24/8/2003) tren website ciia National Center for Policy Analysis, http://www.ncpa.org
7) Vi du, Internet la ket qua ciia viec phat trien he thong dieu khien ten liia va vu tru ciia My do Eg quoc phong
My tien hanh
8) Alexei Isaev, Tap chi Cong san (The Communist Review), so thang 5/1989, trich trong Walker, trang
213
9) Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Politics of Oil, (New York: Simon&Schuster, 1992) trang 658-6,59
10) Khi sU doan bg binh so 17 ciia Afghanistan va cac nhom vii trang thuoc phai Shiite noi loan d tinh Herat, hdn 100 c6 van quan sU Lien X6 cung than nhan ciia ho da bi giet va beu xac
11) -Mikhail Arbatov, The System, (New York: Viking, 1992), trang 198
12) R Gartov, Detente and Confrontation, (Wa.shington D.C, Congress Reaserch Unit, 19S.')i trang 208
Bdi vie't tham gia De tdi KXOl-03/06-10