ciia cac cdng ty Han Quoc. Vdn FDI ciia Han Qudc cung dem lai nhiing tac ddng tich cue ddi vdi viec xay dung ca cau nganh kinh te ciia nhigu nude ASEAN. Cuge khiing hoang tai chinh n[r]
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THl/C TRANG QUAN HE KINH TE ASEAN VOI DONG A
PhamNgpc Tan''
ASEAN - Ddng A thuc sir cd
nhiing chuyen bien ve chat ke tir
sau khimg hoang tai chinh - kinh te nam
1997-1998 Hgp tac kinh tS ASEAN - Ddng A sau
khimg hoang tai chinh kinh te nam 1997 dugc
trien khai chii yeu dudi hinh thirc ky ket cac
hiep djnh thuang mai tu do (ETA), thiic day
dau tu va vien trg lan nhau, ciing nhau phat
trien va hdi nhap mot each hieu qua ban
1 Quan he thu'cng mai
*Tinh hinh chung
Sau khiing hoang nam 1997 quan he
thuang mai ASEAN - Ddng A da cd nhirng
chuyen bien ve chat Thuang mai ndi khdi
Ddng A - Ddng Nam A da tang len gap ddi
trong giai doan 1995-2004, tir 651 ty USD len
1296 ty USD, chiSm tdi tren 60% tdng kim
ngach thuang mai ciia khu vuc nay, cao tuang
tuang vdi thuang mai ndi khdi EU mac dii
Ddng A chua thiet lap dugc thiet che lien ket
khu vuc thdng nhat nhu EU Thuang mai ndi
khdi Ddng A trong thdi gian qua cd sir gia
tang manh cd sir ddng gdp manh me ciia nhan
Tien sT, Dai hoc Vinh
td Trung Qudc ddng thdi cimg vdi viec thuc hien nhanh AFTA ciia khdi ASEAN va nhirng sang kien khu vuc dugc thuc hien trong thdi gian nay Neu nhu nam 1995 Trung Quoc xuat khau sang ASEAN 5 (gdm Singapore Malaysia Indonesia, Thai Lan, Philippine) la 6
ty USD thi nam 2004 con sd nay da la 29 ty USD, tang gan 5 lan Viec cam ket thuc hien nhanh AFTA trong Ididi ASEAN ciing khien thuong mai ndi khdi ASEAN5 tang tii' 13 ty USD len 36 ty USD trong ciing giai doan Chi
cd Nhat Ban xuat khau sang ASEAN5 vdi khdi lugng tang khiem tdn, tir 53 ty USD len
5 5 t y U S D Tinh cho ca 10 nude ASEAN, ddi lac thuang mai chii yeu ciia ASEAN trong nhiing nam gan day la ASEAN, Nhat Ban, My, EU Trung Qudc, Han Qudc, Austraylia .A.n Do Nam 2005, thuang mai ndi khoi ASEAN+3 dat 620 ty USD chiem 50% tdng gia tri kim ngach cua 13 nude' Nhat Ban van
la ddi tac thuang mai chii yeu ciia ASEAN d Ddng A tiep theo la Trung Qudc, Han Qudc Quan he chinh thirc ASEAN - Nhat Ban bat dau tir nam 1977 khi cac nude nay quyet dinh
td chirc mot dien dan hgp tac vdi ten ggi "Hpc
42 Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TKUXG DOXG so 10 (50) thang 10/2009
Trang 2thuyet Fukuda" Nam 1987 Nhat Ban va
ASEAN da ra thdng cao "mdi quan he ddi tac
mdi hudng ve hoa binh va thinh vugng" Nam
1997, sau khimg hoang tai chinh chau A, Thii
tudng Nhat Ban luc bay gid la Ryutaro
Hashimoto da de ra "Hgc thuyet Hashimoto"
nham phat trien mdi quan he ddi tac ngay cang
md rdng va sau sac ban vdi cac nude Ddng
Nam A Nhat Ban da tham gia hang loat cac
hdi nghi tu van vdi cac nude ASEAN, bao
gdm Dien dan an ninh khu vuc (ARE), Hdi
nghi sau Bd trudng (PMC) 9+1 va 10+1, Hdi
nghi Bd trudng kinh te cac nude ASEAN vdi
Bd cdng nghiep va thuang mai qudc te Nhat
Ban (AEM-MITI) Dien dan ASEAN - Nhat
Ban; Hdi nghi tu van cac quan chiic kinh te
cao cap vdi Bd cdng nghiep va thuong mai
qudc t8 Nhat Ban (SEOM-MITI), Hdi ddng
kinh tl ASEAN - Nhat Ban (AJEC) Nam
2002, cuu Thu tudng Koizumi da di tham cac
nude thanh vien ASEAN va de ra "Sang kien
Koizumi", dua tren 3 try cot: thu hep khoang
each phat trien va hudng tdi su thinh vugng;
dam bao gia tri nhan pham; thuc day nen dan
chii va chinh quyen dn dinh Tai Hdi nghi
thugng dinh ASEAN-Nhat Ban td chirc tai
Pnompenh thang 11 nam 2002, Nhat Ban va
ASEAN da tuyen bd phat trien quan he ddi tac
kinh te loan dien, ciing nhau thoa thuan ky ket
FTA Dieu nay cho thay Nhat Ban da cd rat
nhieu nd lire trong viec ciing cd mdi quan he
vdi ASEAN tir sau nam 1997 mac dii kinh te
Nhat Ban luc bay gid dang d trong giai doan
suy thoai
Nhat Ban ludn la ddi tac thuang mai ldn
nhat cua ASEAN Trong giai doan 1993-2001
ty trpng thuang mai ciia Nhat Ban vdi ASEAN
va ciia ASEAN vdi Nhat Ban tuang duang
khoang 15% tdng kim ngach xuat nhap khau
cua hai phia Tuy nhien, con sd nay khdng
phan anh day dii ban chat ciia mdi quan he
kinh 18 ASEAN - Nhat Ban Nhat Ban da cung cap mot mang ludi thi trirdng rdng ldn cho hang hda ASEAN Ke tir nam 1994 ASEAN ludn tham hut thuang mai vdi Nhat Ban Sau khiing hoang nam 1997 tham hiit thuang mai ciia ASEAN vdi Nhat Ban ngay cang ldn, dat con s6 23 ty USD trong giai doan 1998-2001 (trung binh la 5.6 ty USD/nam) 8.3 ty USD nam 2005 Nam 2006, Nhat Ban la thi trudng xuat khau ldn tir thir nhat den thir ba ciia Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine Singapore Thai Lan, Viet Nam, va la thi trirdng nhap khau ldn nhat cua hau bet cac nude nay Tuy
ty trpng ciia Nhat Ban trong tdng kim ngach xuat nhap khau hang boa ciia ASEAN vai nam gan day cd xu hudng giam, chiem khoang 11,5% vao nam 2006 nhung tdng kim ngach thuang mai hai phia nam 2006 van dat 161,7
tyUSD -.-.-•
Quan he Trung Qudc - ASEAN chinh thirc khdi dong tii' nam 1991 khi Bp trudng Ngoai giao Trung Qudc sang tham dir Hoi nghi bp trudng ASEAN lan thir 24 td chirc tai Kuala Lumpur Nam 1993 Trung Qudc va ASEAN
da thiet lap hai uy ban hgp tac kinh te va thuong mai trong ITnh vuc khoa hgc va cdng nghe, dua cac van de an ninh va chinh trj len cap do quan tam chinh thirc cua hai phia Nam
1997 Trung Quoc va ASEAN thanh lap Uy ban hgp lac Trung Qu6c - ASEAN (ACJCC)
va Quy hgp tac Trung Qudc - ASEAN Trung Qudc ciing tham dir cac hdi nghi tu van vdi ASEAN nhu ARE PMC 9+1 va 9+10 Hdi nghi tu van SOM Trung Qudc - ASEAN; DicMi dan kinh doanh Trung Qudc - ASEAN Tai Hdi nghi thugng dinh Trung Qudc - ASEAN lan thir 8 td chirc tai Pnompenh thang 11 nam
2002, hai ben da ky Hiep dinh khung ve quan
he kinh te toan dien Trung Qudc - A.SEAN cung cap khudn khd phap ly cho \iec thanh lap Khu vuc thuang mai lu do ASEAN- Trung
Tap chi nghien cuu CIlAu PHI & TKliXG OOXG so 10 (50) thang
Trang 310/2009-Qudc (CAFTA) vao nam 2010 ddi vdi 6 nude
ASEAN ban dau va vao nam 2015 ddi vdi 4
nude thanh vien mdi ciia ASEAN Vao nam
2004, Trung Qudc va ASEAN da ky cac Hiep
udc ve thuong mai hang hoa (TIG), thanh lap
Ca che giai quyet tranh chap (DSM) de hd trg
cho viec thuc hien CAFTA Hai ben ciing da
ky ket Hiep dinh hgp tac trong linh vuc hau
can (MOU) vao nam 2004 Nam 2005, Trung
Qudc va ASEAN ban hanh Chuang trinh thu
hoach sdm (EHP) tao dieu kien thuan Igi va
nhanh chdng thuc hien CAFTA
Nhu vay so vdi Nhat Ban quan he thuong
mai ASEAN - Trung Qudc d diem xuat phat
ban dau tir rat mudn (nam 1991), nhung ca che
thuc day thuang mai Trung Qudc - ASEAN
da hoan thien rat nhanh, khien tdc do tang
trudng thuong mai hai chieu tang nhanh ky
luc va Trung Qudc gan day da trd thanh ddi
tac thuang mai rat quan trpng ciia ASEAN
Hien nay, ASEAN la ddi tac thuong mai ldn
thir 5 ciia Trung Qudc va Trung Qudc la ddi
tac thuang mai ldn thir 4 ciia ASEAN Vao
nhirng nam dau thap ky 1990, tdc dp tang
trudng thuang mai hai chieu Trung Qudc
-ASEAN dat khoang 20%)/nam, nhung trong
giai doan 2000-2005 da dat tdc dp tang trudng
thuang mai song phuang la 39%/nam dat gia
tri thuang mai 113,3 ty USD vao nam 2005
Nam 2006, gia tri thuang mai hai phia tiep tuc
gia tang, dat 139.9 ty USD, dua ty phSn ciia
Trung Qudc trong tdng kim ngach thuang mai
ciia ASEAN tang tir 2.7% nam 1995 len 9,4%
nam 2004 va 10% nam 2006 Nhirng mdc giai
doan ndi bat trong quan he thuong mai Trung
Qudc - ASEAN da dua Trung Quoc trd thanh
thi trudng xuat khau chu )'eu ciia ASEAN Cac
nude A.SEAN dugc hudng Igi rat ldn tir toe dp
tang trudng kinh te thSn ky cua Trung Qudc
khien nliap khau ciia Trung Quoc tir ASEAN
tang nhanh hon bat cir khu vuc nao tren thi
gidi Trung Qudc ludn nhap sieu tir ASEAN va nam 2006 Trung Qudc nhap sieu 9 ty USD tir ASEAN Quan he thuang mai Trung Qudc -ASEAN hien nay van mang tinh chat bd sung
ca cau Trung Qudc dang gia tang nhap khau cac san pham dang la Igi the ciia ASEAN nhu gao, dau eg dau lira, cao su hoa chat, del may gia)', boa dau san pham vien thdng may mdc thiet bi dien san pham che bien tir dau lira ,
vi vay Trung Qudc tra thanli thj trudng xual khau day hira hen ciia hau het cac nude ASEAN ASEAN da trd thanh ban hang nhap khau ldn thir 4 ciia Trung Qudc sau Nhat Ban, Dai Loan EU Dieu dd phan anh nhirng Igi ich
to ldn ma ASEAN dat dugc nhd cd sir biing no kinh te cua Trung Qudc va nhd nhirng nd lire tang cudng quan he hgp tac cua hai phia Quan he kinh te ASEAN - Han Qudc chinh thirc khdi ddng tir nam 1989 Tai Hdi nghi bp truang ASEAN ISn thir 24 nam 1991 Han Qudc va ASEAN da phat trien mdi quan he nay thanh mdi quan he ddi tac ddi thoai day dii Sau khiing hoang tai chinh nam 1997 quan
he ASEAN - Han Qudc da cd nhieu budc phat trien ban Han Qudc da tich cue tham gia cac dien dan do ASEAN khdi xudng nhu ARE, ASEAN +3 PMC+IO Tai Hdi nghi thugng dinh ASEAN - Han Qudc td chirc d Bali nam
2003 hai ben da ban bac viec thiet lap FTA thanh lap Nhdm chuyen gia ASEAN - Han
Qudc de thuc bien bao cao \h kha nang thuc
bien FTA giua hai phia Nam 2006, FTA ASEAN - Han Qudc chinh tbirc cd hieu luc, tao dieu kien thuc day quan he thuang mai song phuang trong bdi canh chii nghia khu \ irc dang cd chieu hudng gia tang d Ddng A
Trong quan he thuang mai Han Qudc la ddi tac ldn thir 5 cua ASEAN Nam 1996, Han Qudc xuat khau sang ASEAN dat gia tri 20,3
ty USD nhirng nam 1998-2002 xuit khSu cua Han Qudc cd sir su) giam do Han Qudc phai
Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TKir\'G DOXG s6 10 (50) thang 10/2009
Trang 4ddi phd vdi eugc khiing hoang kinh tl dien ra
trong nude Nam 2000 \\xk khiu ciia Han
Qudc sang ASEAN dat 20,1 ty USD; nam
2003 dat 20,2 \.y USD va nam 2006 dat 25,6 ty
USD Xu hudng nhap khau hang boa tir
ASEAN ciia Han Qudc qua cac nam la nhu
sau: nam 1996 dat 12 ty USD, nam 2000 dat
18,1 ty USD, nam 2003 dat 18,5 Xy USD va
nam 2006 dat 26,8 ty USD Hien nay, Han
Qudc chiem 3,4%i tdng gia tri xuat khau va
4,1% tdng gia tri nhap khau ciia ASEAN
Trong quan he thuang mai vdi Han Qudc,
ASEAN ludn d vi tri nhap sieu Nam 1996,
ASEAN nhap sieu 8 ty USD Tuy nhien, sau
khiing hoang tai chinh nam 1997, nhap sieu
ciia ASEAN vdi Han Qudc giam dan va can
can thuang mai hai phia trd nen can bang ban
Nam 2000, ASEAN nhap sieu khoang 2 ty
USD va nam 2006 nhap sieu khoang 1,2 ty
USD Trong ca cau xuat khau ciia ASEAN
sang Han Qudc nam 2003, cac san pham may
mdc va thiet bi dien chiem 43,2% san pham
khai khoang chiem 28,8%, gd va san pham gd
chiem 4,6%, thuc pham che bien chiem 3,2%,
hoa chat chiem 3,2% Trong ca cau nhap khau
ciia ASEAN tir Han Qudc nam 2003, may mdc
thiet bi dien chiem 51,9%o, cac san pham che
bien tir kim loai chiem 9,4%o san pham khai
khoang chiem 9,1%, boa chat 5,7%, det may
chiem 5,5% Nhu vay cd the thay mdi quan he
thuang mai giira ASEAN - Han Qudc la mang
tinh bd sung lan nhau
* FTA Id net dien hinh ciia thuang men
ASEAN-Ddng A
Diem dang chu y nhat trong quan he thuang
mai ASEAN - Ddng A sau nam 1997 la viec
ky ket cac FTA song phuang Nam 1999 Nhat
Ban va Han Qudc da bat dau ban bac den viec
ky ket FTA giira hai nude Tuy FTA giira Nhat
Ban - Han Qudc khdng trd thanh hien thuc vi
nhieu ly do, nhung nd la ngdi nd cho cac FTA
tai Ddng A Nam 2002 Nhat Ban va Singapore da ky Hiep djnh hgp tac kinh le (EPA) Trong khi Nhat Ban va ASEAN dang ban bac xay dung Quan he doi tac loan dien thi Trung Qudc da xiic lien ban bac viec ky ket FTA vdi ASEAN trong ciing nam 2001 va CAFTA da dugc ky ket vao nam sau do (nam 2002) Trung Qudc va ASEAN da thoa thuan hoan thanh FTA vao nam 2010 vdi cac nude phat trien ciia Hiep hdi va vao nam 2015 vdi cac nude thanh vien cdn lai Hai ben dang thuc thi Chuang triiili thu hoach sdm vao thang 1 nam 2004 Sau khi Nhat Ban tbiic hien FTAV vdi Singapore tir thang 11 nam 2002 nude nay ciing da ky ket FTA vdi Malaysia, Brunei va Philippine vao nam 2006 Thai Lan nam 2007,
va dang tiep tiic dam phan FTA vdi Indonesia Han Qudc Viet Nam; thuang lupng vdi
ASEAN \h FTA Nhat Ban - ASEAN tir thang
4 nam 2005 Tai Hdi nghi Bd truang Thuang mai ASEAN (AEM) lan thir 38 to chirc tai Kuala Lumpur nam 2006, Bd trudng Kinh te Nhat Ban da de xuat bai bd 90% cac ddng thue trong gan 5000 ddng thue giira hai ben ndi dung chinh la de tien tdi FTA song phuong Han Qudc da thirc hien FTA vdi ASEAN vao nam 2007 My da ky FTA vdi Singapore nam
2004, Han Qudc nam 2007 va dang thuang lugng vdi Thai Lan dang xem xet ky ket FTA vdi toan ASEAN Ngay 25 thang 8 nam 2006
My va ASEAN da ky Thoa thuan khung ve dau tu va thuang mai (TIFA) md dudng cho FTA My - ASEAN ASEAN va cac nude Ddng A deu ky vgng FTA gdp phan tao nen su hoi nhap ve thuang mai va dau lu sau rdng ban d Ddng A Tinh den thang 12 nam 2007, khu vuc Dong A da thuc hien dugc 134 FTA"
trong dd cd 44 FTA da dugc ky kcl 49 \''\'/\
dang trong giai doan dam phan 41 F TA dang xem xet Nhirng FTA chu yeu Irong noi bp khu vuc Ddng A nhirng nam gan day la nhu sau:
Tap chi nghien ciru CII.AU PHI & TKl'X'G OOXG so 10 (50) thang 10/2009- 45
Trang 5Bang 1: FTA chu yeu 6" khu vyc Dong A tinh den thang 7
Da thu'c hien
(nam co hieu lu-c)
1 Trung Quoc - Hongkong
1 (2004)
\ Trung Quoc - Ma Cao
1 (2004)
^ Nhat Ban - Malaixia (2006)
: Singapore-Nhat Ban (2002)
i Singapore- An Do (2005)
i Singapore -Han Quoc
1 (2006)
1 FTA (1992)
i ASEAN -Trung Qudc
1(2002)
i ASEAN -Han Quoc (2007)
Da ky ket (nam ky ket)
Trung Quoc -Pakistan (2006)
Nhat Ban-Philippine (2006)
Nhat Ban-Brunay (2006)
Nhat Ban-Thai Lan (2007)
Thai Lan - An Do (2004)
Dang dam phan
Trung Quoc- Singapore Nhat Ban-Indonesia Nhat Ban-Han Qudc Nhat Ban-An Dp Nhat Ban-Viet Nam Han Qu6c-An Dp Thai Lan - An Dp
• j
ASEAN-An Dd ASEAN - Nhat Ban
nam 2007 Dang xem xet
Trung Qu6c-An Do Trung Quoc -Han Quoc Trung Quoc-Thai Lan Nhat Ban-Dai Loan
I
ASEAN+3 ASEAN- Dai Loan Trung Qudc-Nhat Ban-Han Quoc
Ngudn: www.bilaterals org
Xuat phat tir thuc tien tren, dau nam 2005,
Nhat Ban da de xuat y tudng thanh lap Khu
thuang mai tu do Ddng A (EAFTA) trudc nam
2010 tap hgp 15 nen kinh tk (ASEAN 10 +
Trung Qudc, Han Qudc, Nhat Ban Hdng
Kong, Dai Loan) vdi dan sd khoang 2 ty ngudi
nham tu do boa thuang mai va dau tu d Ddng
A, lam ddi trgng vdi cac khdi kinh te EU va
NAFTA Tuy nhien cho den nay FTA song
phuang va giiia ba nude Ddng Bac A la Nhat
Ban - Han Qudc - Trung Qudc van dang trong
qua trinh xem xet Viec chua the ky ket FTA
song phuang Nhat Ban- Han Qudc hay Nhat
Ban - Trung Qudc Trung Qudc - Han Qudc la
do nhieu nguyen nlian, trong dd cd nliung
nguyen nlian thugc ve lich sir, cd nhiing
nguyen nhan thude ve chinh sach bao hd
thuang mai ciia Nhat Ban Han Qudc Nhieu
nghien cim cho rang rat khd hinh thanh mot
khung kho the che cho hgp tac khu vuc loan
Ddng A Hon niia, cd qua nhieu FTA trong
khu vuc Ddng A dugc ky ket hien nay theo ca
che "true va nan hoa"^ dang gay ra hien tugng
"bat my dng" ciia cac khdi thuang mai, lam
anh hudng den tien trinh tu do hoa thuang mai
khu vuc va loan cau Theo tinh toan ciia nhieu
nha nghien cim, FTA giira ASEAN va cac
nude Ddng Bac A rieng re theo md thiic ASEAN +1 da khien Igi ich va GDP cua ASEAN tang gap 3 lan so vdi AFTA trudc do Neu 3 nude Ddng Bac A ky ket dugc FTA chung va boat ddng song song vdi AFTA cua ASEAN Igi ich mang lai cho 3 nude Ddng Bac A la ldn ban rat nhieu lan so vdi md hinh ASEAN +1, tuy nhien Igi ich ciia ASEAN tir FTA Ddng Bac A se giam di nhieu so vdi FTA
ky rieng vdi timg nude Ddng Bac A Cdn neu FTA ASEAN + 3 dugc ky ket Igi ich giiia cac nude ASEAN va Ddng Bac A dugc can bang ban nhung Igi ich cua mot sd nude se khdng ldn nhu nhirng Igi ich khi ky FTA song phuang Vdi nhirng Igi ich dan xen nhau va ddi khi cd sir canh tranh nhau, mot FTA toan Ddng A rat khd dugc thuc hien va lan sdng FTA song phuang ngay cang lan rdng d Ddng 4 (bang 2) )•
2 Quan he dau tu" va chuyen giao cong nghe
Quan he dau tu ASEAN - Ddng A la quan
he hai chieu trong dd Nhat Ban Han Qudc lot
vao top len trong sd cac ddi tac dau tu cua
ASEAN, cdn Trung Qudc la dia ban dau tu ly
tudng cua ASEAN Trong giai doan
1990-Tap chi nghien ciru CII.VU PHI & TKUXG OOXG so 10 (50) thang 10/2009
Trang 62002, khoang 22% FDI vao ASEAN la tir
Nhat Ban, 18% tir EU va 16%) tir My Trong
giai doan 2002-2006, Nhat Ban chilni 18%
tdng FDI vao ASEAN, EU chi6m 26,3%), My
chiem 8%), Han Qudc chiem 2%, Trung Qudc
chiem 1,3% Nam 2006 tdng gia tri FDI ciia Nhat Ban vao ASEAN dat 10,8 ty USD dirng thir 2 sau EU; Han Qudc dau tu vao ASEAN 1,099 t)' USD, diing thir 7 va Trung Qudc dau
tu vao ASEAN 936,9 trieu USD dirng thir 10
Bang 2: Tac dong cua viec ky ket FTA d Dong A (thay doi %) FTA
AFTA ; 'y'
ASEAN+1
AFTA +
Trung Quoc
Nhat Ban
-Han Quoc
FTA
ASEAN+3
ASEAN Trung Quoc Nhat Ban Han Quoc The gidi ASEAN Trung Quoc Nhat Ban Han Qudc The gidi ASEAN Trung Qudc Nhat Ban Han Quoc The gidi ASEAN Trung Qudc Nhat Ban Han Qudc The gidi
Phiic loi 1,06
-0,06 -0,02 -0,06
0,28
3,77
-0,58
-0,09 -0,33 0,98 0,38
-0,10
0,31
4,88 0,21
2,69 -0,34 0,25 4,57 0,82
GDP
1,45 -0,07 -0,05 -0,08 0,02 4,78 -0,19 -0,24 -0,30 0,06 0,89 2,29 1,58 3,24 0,33 3,77 2,17 1,32 2.86 0,36
Xuat khau
2,22 -0,08 -0,13 -0,13 0,09 2,59 3,23 0,49 0,23 0,29 2,03 10,49 4,40 12,13 1,16 2,28 13,07 4,77 12,13 1,30
Nhap khau
2,90 -0,19
- 0 , 2 1 : -0,18 : 0,09 : 5,22 : 3,21 : 0,02 -0,12 ; 0,29 ! 2,34 : 14,24 1 6,95 ; 12,12 ; 1.16 ' 4,25 16,86 6,87 : 11,87 : 1,30 ;
Ngudn: Theo md hinh CGE ciia Innwon Park, MPRA Paper No.5068, sd I, thdng 3 nam 2008
Trong khu vuc Ddng A, Nhat Ban la ddi tac
dau tu ldn nhat cua ASEAN FDI ciia Nhat
Ban bat dau tap trung vao ASEAN trong thap
ky 1990, chii yeu la d Singapore, Malaysia,
Thai Lan, sau dd lan rdng sang Indonesia
Philippine va Viet Nam Trong giai doan
1990-2004, sd cdng ty ciia Nhat Ban cd mat tai
Singapore tang tir 743 cdng ty len 1121 cdng
ty, tai Malaysia tang tir 509 cdng ty len 805
cong ty, tai Thai Lan tang tir 766 cdng ty len
1512 cdng ty, tai Indonesia tang tir 292 cdng ty
len 698 cdng ty, tai Philippine tang tir 171
cdng ty len 453 cdng ty, tai Viet Nam tang tir 1
cong ty len 220 cdng ty'' Cac tap doan ldn ciia
Nhat Ban hau bet da cd mat d ASEAN, trong
dd Thai Lan Singapore la nhirng nude thu hiit
nhieu tap doan ldn nhat ciia Nhat Ban nhu
Matsushita, Toyota, JVC Sony, Sanyo, Toshiba, Epson, NEC, Hitachi, Casio, Fujitsu, Sony, Sharp v.v Hau bet cac tap doan nay deu cd Igi the ve phat trien cong nghiep che tao, dac biet la cdng nghiep dien, dien tir Dau
tu ciia Nhat Ban ddng vai tro quan trpng trong cac nganh cdng nghiep che tao hien dai cua ASEAN, dac biet la cac nganh cdng nghiep hudng ve xuat khau Co cau vdn FDI ciia Nhat Ban vao ASEAN trong giai doan 1995-2001 la nhu sau: Cdng nghiep die tao chiem 61% cdng nghiep khdng thude cdng nghiep che lao chi§m 36,4%, cac nganh khac 2.6% Nhirng nganh thu bill FDI nhieu nhat la dien tu 15,4%, boa chat 10.3%, van tai 9.1%, chg lao kim loai 7,7%, tai chinh va bao hiem 7.2% thuang mai 6,9%), khai khoang 6,2% bat ddng
Tap chi nghien ciru CII.AU PHI & TKUXG OOXG s6 10 (50) thang
Trang 710/2009-san 5,5% Trong nhiing nam gan day, ty phan
FDI ciia Nhat Ban tai cac nude ASEAN cd
chiSu hudng suy giam, tir 28% nam 1991
xuong 18,4% nam 2001, 16,3% nam 2004 va
20,6% nam 2006 Sir suy giam nay chii yeu do
cd sir ndi len ciia nen kinh te Trung Qudc va
nhung khd khan kinh te ma nude Nhat dang
phai doi mat, nhung xet ve ca cau dau tu va ty
phan dau tu ciia Nhat vao ASEAN cd the thay
Nhat Ban van la nude ddng vai trd quan trgng
nhat trong viec cung cap vdn dau tu, chuyen
dich ca cau kinh te, xuat khau, tao viec lam d
cac nude ASEAN
Mdi quan he dau tu ASEAN - Han Qudc cd
lich sir lau dai ban so vdi cac khu vuc khac
Ngay tir giiia thap ky 1980, cac cdng ty Han
Qudc da xem dia ban Ddng Nam A la mot dia
diem dau tu hap dan do ngudn nhan lire ddng
va tai nguyen thien nhien ddi dao Vi vay, FDI
cua Han Qudc vao ASEAN bat dau gia tang tir
cudi thap ky 1980 Trong nbii'ng nam
1993-1994, FDI ciia Han Qudc vao ASEAN cd su
suy giam do cac cdng ty Han Qudc tap trung
dau tu vao thi trudng Trung Qudc, nhung
nhiing nam sau dd FDI ciia Han Qudc vao
ASEAN lai tiep tuc gia tang, dac biet la vao
Inddnexia va Viet Nam Do chiu tac ddng
nang ne ciia cupc khung hoang nam 1997 va
sir ndi len ciia nen kinh te Trung Qudc, FDI
ciia Han Qudc vao ASEAN nhiing nam
1997-2001 cd chieu hudng suy giam, va nhiing nam
tiep theo FDI ciia Han Qudc cd sir tang giam
that thudng Vao nam 2003, FDI ciia Han
Qu6c vao ASEAN dat 508 trieu USD, nam
2004 dat 806.4 trieu USD, nam 2005 dat 577,7
trieu USD, nam 2006 dat 1009,1 trieu USD
Trong giai doan 2002-2006, Han Qudc chi
chilm 2% tdng FDI ciia ASEAN
Mac dii khdi lugng FDI ciia Han Qudc vao
ASEAN nhirng nam gan day klidng nhieu,
nhung Han Qudc van la nude Ddng A cd sd
vdn dau tu ldn thir hai ciia ASEAN, sau Nhat
Ban va ASEAN la dia ban dau tu ldn thii' ba
ciia cac cdng ty Han Quoc Vdn FDI ciia Han Qudc cung dem lai nhiing tac ddng tich cue ddi vdi viec xay dung ca cau nganh kinh te ciia nhigu nude ASEAN Ca cau nganh dau tu ciia cac cdng ty Han Qudc vao ASEAN trong giai doan 2001-2003 la nhu sau: nganh die tao chiSm 59,5%) khai khoang 13,1%) bat ddng san va djcb vu 9.4%), vien thdng 5,7%), thuang
mai 5,7%) xay dung A%, ndng nghiep 1,1%,
nha hang khach san 1,1 %, cdn lai la cac nganh khac Trong sd 10 nude ASEAN, 6 nude bao gdm Indonesia, Viet Nam, Thai Lan, Philippine, Singapore, Malaysia chiem tdi 89% long FDI vao ASEAN cua Han Qudc, cu th8 la: Indonesia la nude thu hiit dugc nhieu FDI nhat cua Han Qudc, chiem 31.1% tdng FDI cua Han Quoc vao ASEAN trong giai doan 2001-2003, tiep theo la Viet Nam chiSm 22,1%, Thai Lan chien 13,3%, Philippin chi6m 12,6%, Singapore 10,6%, Malaysia 8,4%, nhirng nude ASEAN kliac chiem binh quan dudi l%-\
Khac vdi Nhat Ban va Han Qudc, quan he dau tu Trung Qudc - ASEAN chii yeu nghieng
ve phia ASEAN dau tu vao Trung Qudc Nam
1991, dau tu cua ASEAN vao Trung Qudc chi dat 90 trieu USD, nhung nam 1998 con sd nay
da tang len dat 4,8 ty USD Cuge khiing hoang tai chinh nam 1997 Idiien ddng FDI ciia ASEAN vao Trung Qudc suy giam Neu nhu nam 1997 ASEAN chiem 11% tdng lugng FDI vao Trung Qudc, thi nam 2001 con sd nay giam cdn 6,1%), mac dii khdi lugng vdn FDI van tang manh Nam 2001, FDI ciia ASEAN vao Trung Qudc dat con sd ky luc 26,2 ty USD Trong giai doan 2002-2005 FDI ciia ASEAN vao Trung Qudc binh quan la 3 ty USD/nam FDI ciia ASEAN vao Trung Qudc chii yeu lien quan den cac boat ddng md rdng thj trudng xuat khau, khai thae ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien, sir dung ngudn lao ddng ddng va chi phi re d Trung Qudc Cac nude ASEAN 6 (Singapore, Malaysia, Thai Lan,
48 Tap chi nghien cu-u CH.4u PHI & TRinVG DO.XG s6 10 (50) thang 10/2009
Trang 8Indonesia, Philippine Viet Nam) la ddi tac dAu
tu chii yeu ciia ASEAN vao Trung Qudc
Dau tu eiia Trung Qudc vao ASEAN td ra
khiem tdn ban so vdi dau tu ciia ASEAN vao
Trung Qudc Vi tri ciia Trung Qudc trong quan
he dau tu vdi ASEAN chi bat dau dugc khang
dinh kg tir nam 2001 Nam 2001, FDI ciia
Trung Qudc vao ASEAN chi dat 650 trieu
USD, sau tang len dat 731,5 trieu USD vao
nam 2004, giam cdn 502,1 trieu USD nam
2005 va dat con sd 936,9 trieu USD vao nam
2006 Tinh trong giai doan 2002-2006, FDI
tich luy ciia Trung Qudc vao ASEAN dat
2,302 ty USD, chilm 1,3% trong tdng FDI vao
ASEAN giai doan nay Tuy con sd tren cdn
qua nhd so vdi tiem nang ciia hai nude, nhung
trong tuong lai FDI ciia Trung Qudc vao
ASEAN se cd chieu hudng tang nhanh FDI
ciia Trung Qudc chii yeu tap trung d cac nude
cd trinh do phat trien thap ban nhu Lao,
Campuchia, Mianma Trung Qudc la nude dan
dau FDI tai Campuchia, dimg thir hai d Lao
Tai Mianma, FDI ciia Trung Qudc chii yeu tap
trung trong ITnh vuc xay dung ca sd ha tang
khai khoang, cac du an phat trien cdng nghiep
Theo nhieu nha nghien cim ve Miama cac dii
an dau tu cua Trung Qudc tai Mianma deu
mang tinh chien luge nham ciing cd eo bien
An Dp Duong, dam bao ngudn cung cap nang
lugng cho Trung Qudc va xay dung mdi quan
he chat che vdi Mianma de kiem che An Dp
Trung Qudc hien nay dang dung hang thir 10
trong sd cac qudc gia cd vdn dau tu ldn nhat
vao ASEAN va diing bang thu 3 trong sd cac
quoc gia Ddng A cd vdn dau tu ldn nhat vao
ASEAN
Trong quan he kinh te vdi cac nude Ddng
A, ASEAN hudng Igi rat nhieu tir chuyen giao
cong nghe, xay dung cac nganh cdng nghiep
che tao Chuyen giao cdng nghe trd thanh nhan
to quan trgng trong ngudn vdn FDI ciia Nhat
Ban va Han Qudc vao ASEAN Do cac ngudn
von FDI ciia Nhat Ban va Han Qudc tap trung
chii yeu trong nganh cdng nghiep che lao nen tdc do chuyen giao cdng nghe ciia cac nganh nay tuong ddi nhanh Vao nam 1996 ASEAN
da thiet lap Ca che hgp tac cdng nghiep ASEAN, nham thu hut nhieu TNCs vao he thdng san xuat cdng nghiep ciia khu v uc na) dac biet trong cac nganh ma)' moc dien dien tir Thang 2 nam 2007 Co che nay da phe chuan 140 du an cdng nghiep cho khu vuc ASEAN, thu hilt 140 TNCs tren th^ gidi trong
dd tap trung vao TNCs ciia cac nude Ddng A
My va EU Bao cao phat trien ngudn nhan lire ciia Lien hgp qudc nam 2007 cho rang Nhat Ban, Dai Loan Singapore Han Qudc la nhirng nude dan dau chau A ve chi sd cdng nghe va chi sd sang tao cdng nghe trong dd chi so cdng nghe ciia Nhat Ban dan dau dat 0.888; Han Qudc dii'ng thir 4 dat 0.697: Chi sd sang tao cdng nghe ciia Nhat Ban dat 0,974: Han Qudc dat 0,285 Cac nude ASEAN hau het deu dat chi sd sang tao cdng nghe tir 0.001 (Indonesia thap nhat) den 0.012 (Malaysia -cao nhat) Nhu vay su chuyen giao cdng nghe giira cac nude cd cdng nghe cao (Nhat Ban, Han Qudc) sang cac nude co cdng nghe thap (ASEAN) la dieu tat yeu Trong qua trinh chuyen giao cdng nghe, cdng nghe mdi ma cac nude ASEAN nhan dugc hau nhu rat it \a lap trung chu yeu d nhiing nude phat trien ban nhu Singapore, Malaysia va Thai Lan Cdng nghe da qua sir dung dugc chuyen giao vao hau bet cac nude ASEAN Chi sd cdng nghe
da qua sir dung d Singapore dat 0,887, Malaysia la 0,525, Thai Lan la 0,389, Philippine la 0 283 Indonesia la 0.130
3 Vien t r a phat tri§n
Nhat Ban va Han Qudc la hai nude Dong A vien trg ldn nhat cho ASEAN Vien trg phai trien chinh thirc (ODA) cua Nhat Ban va Han Qudc cho ASEAN chu yeu la nham tang cudng hgp lac phat trien giua hai phia giiip thu hep khoang each phat trien a viing Ddng
Tap chi nghien ciru CII.AU PHI & TKUXG OOXG so 10 (50) thang 10/2009- 49
Trang 9Nam A N6u nhu nam 1980, ODA ciia Nhat
Ban gianh cho ASEAN chi la 703 trieu USD
thi nam 1992 con sd nay da tang len dat
khoang 3 ty USD, chiem 35.1% tdng gia tri
ODA ciia Nhat Ban cho toan the gidi'' Ciing
tir nam 1992 dudi sir phdi hgp ciia Ngan hang
Phat trien chau A (ADB), Nhat Ban la nude
cung cap vdn ODA nhieu nhat cho viec thuc
hien Hgp tac Tieu viing sdng Me kdng md
rdng Nam 1998, khai niem hanh lang kinh te
dugc xay dung nham xay dung ca sd ha tang
giao thdng gan lien vdi san xuat va thuang mai
trong viing Nhat Ban da dac biet quan tam den
viec vien trg cho Hanh lang kinh te Ddng Tay,
trong khi Trung Qudc chii yeu vien trg cho
Hanh lang kinh te Bac Nam Trong eugc
khung hoang tai chinh chau A nam 1997, Nhat
Ban da vien trg 19 ty USD cho 3 nude chiu tac
ddng nang ne nhat la Thai Lan Indonesia, Han
Qudc Sang kien Miyazawa ngay say dd cung
nham cung cap ODA cho cac nude bi khiing
hoang trong dai ban Trong hdi nghi thugng
dinh ASEAN - Nhat Ban td chirc thang 12 nam
2003 tai Bali, Nhat Ban dat uu tien cao nhat
cho viec giiip cac nude ASEAN phat trien va
ciing hdi nhap Theo phuang cham dd, Nhat
Ban da uu tien cap tien vien trg va vdn vay uu
dai ODA cho ASEAN, dac biet trong linh vuc
dao tao ngudn nhan lire, phat trien xi nghiep
vira va nhd, giup cac nude thupc luu vuc sdng
Mekong thu hep khoang each phat trien Vao
nam 2005 Nhat Ban da cam ket trong giai
doan 2005-2010 se dua 1 van sinh vien va thuc
tap sinh ASEAN sang Nhat bpc hoac tu
nghiep, trong giai doan 2005-2008 chi 1,5 ty
USD de giup ASEAN dao tao nhan tai, chi 1,5
ty USD de giup phat trien khu vuc sdng
Mekdng, ddng thdi tang cudng cung cap ODA
de xay dung ca sd ha tang, dao tao ngudn nhan
luc de phat trien cdng nghe thdng tin, cdng
nghiep did, cdng nghiep dien tir tai cac nude
ASEAN Cho d k nay, 30% ODA ciia Nhat
Ban van tap trung tai khu vuc ASEAN
Ciing vdi Nhat Ban Han Qudc cung co nhiing nd lire hgp tac phat trien giup cac nude ASEAN thu hep khoang each phat trien Trong giai doan 1987-2003, ASEAN la dia ban cung cap ODA ldn nhat ciia Han Qudc dat gia tri
670 trieu USD chiSm 25% tdng vdn ODA cua Han Qudc Han Qudc chu yeu chii trpng cung cap ODA trong cac chuang trinh hgp tac phat trien ngudn nhan lire, nham giiip cac nude ASEAN cd nang lire tdt ban trong tiep nhan chuyen giao cdng nghe trong cac nganh cdng nghe thdng tin va cac nganh cdng nghiep die tao khac Hon nua de hd trg Sang kien hgp tac ASEAN (lAI) Han Qudc da cung cap 5 trieu USD cho 5 du an lien quan dac biet la du an xay dung nang luc boat ddng thuang mai van dich vu d cac nude Lao, Campuchia Mianma, Viet Nam giiip cac nude nay tang cudng nhan thuc ve nhirng Igi ich do tu do hoa thuong mai mang lai
* Danh gid chung:
Ca ba nude Ddng Bac A deu cd nhirng Igi ich va chien luge khac nhau khi phat trien quan be kinh te vdi ASEAN ASEAN la khu vuc lang gieng gan ke ciia Trung Qudc vi vay Trung Qudc nhan manh Igi ich cua minh khi quan he hgp tac kinh te vdi ASEAN So vdi cac khu vuc khac, ASEAN la khu virc phat trien dn dinh, cd nen kinh te nang ddng, quan
he hgp tac chat che vdi ASEAN se khien Trung Qudc tao lap dugc mot mdi trudng dn dinh va giup kinh te Trung Qudc hudng ve hien dai boa Mdi quan be kinh t§ ASEAN-Trung Qudc la mdi quan he dugc bat dau va phat trien tren mot nen tang mdi, trong khi vdi Nhat Ban va Han Qudc, day la mdi quan he
truyen thdng va Nhat Ban, Han Qudc dku giii
mot vi tri rat quan trgng trong cac chien luge phat trien kinh te ciia ASEAN tir trudc tdi nay Mot ddi tac mdi va hai ddi tac cu ciia ASEAN dang cd gang tim kiem nhirng chiSn luge hgp tac kinh te chat che vdi khu vuc nay vi nhiing
Tap chinghi(?n cuu CII.AU PHI & TKliXfG DOXG so 10 (50) thang 10/2009
Trang 10Igi ich rieng ciia timg nude va Igi ich chung
hudng ve Cdng ddng Ddng A trong tuong lai
Chi trong ITnh vuc ky kk FTA vdi ASEAN,
ciing cd the thay dang cd sir tranh gianh quyen
chii dao giira ba n u d e Trung Qudc Nhat Ban,
Han Qudc ngay cang gay gat Trung Qudc
mudn nhanh chdng ky ket CAFTA vdi
ASEAN de nam quyen chu dao d Ddng A, gay
an tugng ve mot Trung Qudc ldn manh va
hiing hau trong mat cac nude A S E A N bdi tdc
dp tang trudng nhanh va quy md tbj trudng
rpng ldn, m d ra c a hdi phat trien ldn cho cac
nude ASEAN va de lan at Nhat Ban va Han
Qudc Nhat Ban va Han Qudc sir dung chien
luge FDI chuyen giao cdng nghe, cung cap
ODA de giir vi tri chii dao ve Igi ich kinh te
cho cac nude A S E A N , ddng thdi nhanh chdng
thoa thuan FTA vdi A S E A N de kim che Trung
Qudc Mdi quan he kinh te A S E A N - Ddng A
vi vay trd thanh mdi quan he da chieu, su xuat
hien ciia nen kinh te Trung Qudc da lam pha
vd moi quan he theo md hinh "dan nhan bay",
md ra mot mdi quan he mdi trong dd cac nude
Dong A, ke ca cac nude phat trien ban va
cham phat trien hon deu phu thude lan nhau
ngay cang nhieu hon Day la mot xu hudng
mdi ciia chii nghTa khu vuc d Ddng A
Chii thich:
' Gom 10 nude ASEAN va 3 nude Nhat Ban,
Han Qu6c, Trung Quoc Theo ASEAN Statistics,
ASEAN Secretariat, 2006
"Nhirng FTA nay dugc thuc hien giua cac nude
Dong A vdi cac nude trong khu vuc chau A va cac
nude khac tren the gidi
^ Trong do ASEAN la true va se tao ra 3 FTA
rieng re la ASEAN - Trung Qu6c, ASEAN - Han
Quoc, ASEAN - Nhat Ban
Theo Oversea Japanese Companies Data
' Theo The Export - Import Bank of Korea
Database, 2005
'' Co che nay dugc danh gia la rat thanh cong
trong viec hinh thanh mot mang ludi san xuat, dac
biet cho cac nganh cong nghiep 6 to va dien tii'
bang bien phap giam thue quan xu6ng 0-5% ihao
bo tat ca nhu'ng gidi han ve ty le sd huu cho cac nha dau tu nude ngoai tao ra co che giai quvet tranh chap mot each hieu qua (Theo Ban thu kv ASEAN 2007)
' Theo so lieu cua Bo ngoai giao Nhat Ban
Tai lieu tham khao
1 Tadahiro Yoshida Easi Asian Regionalism
and Japan IDE PEC Study Center Working Paper
Series 03/04 No 9 3/2004 ' •
2 ADB, Foreign Direct InvestinenI in
Developing Asia Asian Development Outlook
2004
3 Narongchai Akrasanee Development of
ASEAN - Japan Ralations Symposium ""Future
Direction of ASEAN - Japan Economic Relations
in Response to Globalization" Tokyo 6/8/2007
4 ASEAN Secrectary Report of the
.ASEAN-China Eminent Persons Group 2007
5 Thitapha Wattanapruttipaisan, 'l.S'£.^A'-C/7;««
Partnership: a Blossoming Ralalionship
wvvvv ASEANsec.org
6 ADB, Emerging Asian Regionalism: a
Parnershipfor Shared Prosperity 2008
7 ASEAN-Republic of Korea Dialogue
Relations, vvvvvv.ASEANsec.org
8 Innwon Park, Regional Trade Agreements in
East Asia: Will they be Sustainable'}' Korea
Universit)', MPRA Paper No.5068, 3/2008
9 Masashisa Fujita, The Coming Age of China
- plus - One: the Japanese Perspective on East Asian Production Networks World Bank
18/2/2006
10 Michael G.PIummer and David Cheong
FDI Effects of ASEAN Integration International
Business School, Brandeis University 15/6/2007
11 Inkyo Cheong, Korea's FTA policy Korea
Institute for Interational Economic Policy (KIEP), 5/2003
12 Ahn Se - Yuong Korea's FT.4 Policy:
Focusing on the Japan - Korea FT.A and US-Korea FTA Research Institute of Economy US-Korea,
13/7/2006
13 Kvvon Yul, Toward a Comprehensive
Partnership: ASEAN-Korea Economic Cooperation
East Asian Review, Vol 16 No4 2004