Do vay, mgt trong nhung phuong budng hodn thien viec du bdo la nhdn thite mdt cdch diing ddn CO sd cua viec du bdo vd khd ndng xudi hien ciia nhung tinh hudng bdi thudng, tute nhung [r]
Trang 1THUC TRANG DU BAG VE KHA NANG XUAT HIEN CAC TINH HUONG BAT THUONG DO TAC DONG CUA CAC VEU
L Dat van de
Thuc td d nhidu nudc cho thay, du bdo
xd hdi, trong dd cd du bdo khd nang xuat
hicn cac tinh hud'ng bat thudng do tdc ddng
cua cdc ydu td tu nhien vd xa hdi trd thanh
boat ddng thudng xuyen trong cdng tac phdn
lich tdng hgp cua cac ca quan quan ly nha
nudc ndi chung vd cdc ca quan quan ly hanh
chinh nha nudc ndi rieng
0 nudc ta, trong nhung nam gdn ddy, do
su phdt tridn xa hgi, cdng tdc du bdo xd bdi
ndi chung va du bdo vd khd nang xuat hien
cdc tinh hud'ng bat thudng do tdc ddng cua
cdc yeu id lu nhien va xd bdi mdi duac chu
trgng phdt trien Thuc trang dd khdng ciii
bidu hicn muc do phat tridn cua khoa bgc du
bdo ma cdn la nhu cdu thuc tien ciip bdch do
cugc sdng dat ra cho cdng tdc quan ly xa hdi
trong didu kien ddi mdi Chi tren co sd kdt
qua du bao chinh xac ve khd nang xudi hien
cdc tinh hudng biii thudng do tdc dgng cua
cac yeu td tu nhien va xa bdi cdc co quan
quan ly nhd nudc mdi chu ddng lap kd
hoiich chudn bi luc lugng, phuang lien cdn
ihiei de quan ly xa hdi trong nhiing tinb
hudng biii thudng mgt each cd bieu qua nhdi
Tuy nhien, buc tranh ve thuc tiang du bdo vd
kha nang xuiii hien cdc tinh budng bdi
thudng do tdc ddng cua cac ydu td tu nhien
va xa hgi d nudc ta trong thdi gian qua cho
thay kha nhidu mau sdc am diim Vdy, ddu la
thuc chili cua van dd? Bai viei dudi ddy gdp
phdn giai dap cdu bdi dd
2 Ngi dung van de
' TS Luiit hoc Vicn Nhii nudc vii Ph;ip luiit
Ho Sy Sffn*
2.1 Thue trgng dvf bdo ve khd ndng xuat hien cdc tinh hudng bdt thudng do tdc dgng cua cdc yeu td tu nhien vd xd hoi 2.LL Thifc trgng dif bdo ve khd ndng xudi hien cdc tinh hudng bed ihuifng do tdc ddng ciia cdc ydu td lit nhien d nifdc ta trong thdi gian qua
Vdi dac didm khi hdu nhiet ddi gid mua dia hinh ddc cdng them lugng sdng sudi khd Idn Viet Nam la mgt trong sd nhQng qudc gia phdi gdnh chiu rdi nhidu thien tai dac biet la bao lu xay ra thudng xuyen hang nam
va ddi khi tao ra nhung tinb budng bai thudng Mgt Viin dd cd lien quiin va cd anh huong riii Idn den bieu qua qudn ly nha nudc Irong cac llnb \ tic khac nhau cua ddi sdng xa bdi duoc dat ra vd cdn dugc giai quyet mgt cdch thiiu ddo la nhung hicn tugng thien tai nao dugc ggi la bai thudng? Biii ky mdt cdu tra Idi nao ve Niin de dd, thidl nghi cQng cd the gdy ra sti tranh luiin ma khdng phai liic nao cQng cd bdi ket Tuy nhien ndi ddn tinb hudng bdt thudng trude hei phai ndi den tinh hudng binh thudng vdn dugc hidu la tinh hudng tuy cd anh budng song khdng gdy xao trgn cugc sdng xa hgi ndi chung vd hoiit ddng qudn ly nha nudc ndi rieng Theo each hidu dd, tinb budng bdi thudng phai la tinh budng khdng binh thudng theo hudng qud muc binh thudng Chang hiin nang mua la benh cua trdi nen Itit lgi la tinh hudng binh thudng, song hicn tugng cdc dudng phd Ha Ngi "trd thdnh nhung con sdng" trong con mua vao cudi nam 2008 vira qua thi da la tinh hud'ng bat thudng Theo each hieu dd
cd thd khang dinh rang, khdng phai tat ca cdc bien tugng tu nhien ndo cQng cd the ga\
ra tinb budng bdi thudng Nhung cd nhutng thien tai nhu bao lu, dgng ddi ban ban cd
Trang 2HA NUdc VA PHAP LUAT SO 12/200'
the gdy ra tinb hud'ng bdi thudng, Hdu qua
cua chiing la rdi Idn Chi tinb rieng nam
2007, theo bao cdo cua Ban chi dao Phong
chdng lut bao trung uong, thien tai da lam
462 ngudi cbdt, 33 ngudi mdi tich, gay thiet
hai vd vat chdi len den gdn 11.500 ti ddng,
gdn 10.000 ngdi nha bi cudn trdi, 718.000
ngdi nhd bi hu bai, nhidu cdng trinh giao
thdng, thuy lgi bi hu hdng ndng Didu dang
ndi nua la lien tuc trong cdc ndm 2005, 2006
va 2007, nudc ta thudng xuyen phdi gdnh
chiu nhung thien tai Idn Cdc thien tai dd
didn ra tren mgt pbtim vi rdng, didn bidn bdt
sire phirc tiip, bat thudng Trong khi dd, cdng
tdc phdng chdng lut bao va tim kidm ciru nan
cd qud nhidu b;in chd do thidu phuong tien
cifu nan, chua chu dgng dugc nudc sach,
luong thuc cho nhdn ddn vung bi thien tai,
ma xet ddn cung la do cdng tdc du bdo kem,
Chung ta thit lam mgt phep thdng ke cung da
dii dd gidt minh: Chi hon mgt thdng ma trung
tdm du bdo khi tugng thuy van trung uong du
bdo sai vd tinh hinh mua bao ddn 5 lan Cd
nhien du bdo bao gid cung cd tinb tuong ddi
va bao hdm cd sit thay ddi (tiic chap nhiin cd
sai sd) Thd nhung sai ddn 5 Idn trong mdt
thdng thi cdi sai dd da thuc sir mang tinh he
thdng Du bao khdng chinh xac, rd rdng da
gdp them cung vdi thien tai lam gia tdng
thiet hai nhu sieu bao Chan Chu thang 5 nam
2006 tai khu vuc bidn Ddng, can bao sd 6 cd
ten qud'c td Xangsane thdng 10 nam 2006 dd
bd vao Quang Nam - Dd Nang, con bao sd 9
d midn Trung, trdn mua ky luc d Ha Ngi
trong nam 2008 la nhung minh chiing cu
thd va rd rang Can nhdc liii rdng, du bao
mua d Ha Ngi chi 100 mm nhung thuc td len
hon 500 mm, d Ha Ddng len tdi 800 mm, cd
noi len 1000 mm Chi can du bdo sai mgt
can bao bay mgt trdn IQ, ndi theo cdch cua
Bg trudng Bd Tai nguyen va Mdi trudng
Phiim Khdi Nguyen tai Hgi nghi du bdo vien
khi tugng thuy van todn qud'c didn ra ngdy
20 thdng 11 nam 2008 tiii Ha Ngi la cd the
"xod bd kdt qua cua 10 nam"
Du bdo cd nhien la su tien dodn nhung gl
se didn ra Ddnh rdng la dut dodn, nhung du
bdo khdng phai la su doan md ma la cd co sd
khoa hgc dua tren viec ndm bdt va phan tich khoa hgc ve cdc dO kien da thu thap trong qua kbit va hien tai Ndi cdch khdc du bao la mdt nganh khoa hgc bdi chi du bao dugc cai se didn ra trong tuong lai khi cd phan tich cac dit lieu hien cd da thu thap dugc Du bdo thdi tiet lai cang phai la mdt khoa hgc Didu dd rai can de'n yeu td ky thuat cdng nghe du bao thdi tiet
va ydu td con ngudi, Ca hai ydu td dd d nudc
ta hien nay ddu chua dugc dap ung mdt cdch day dii cho du bdo vd cac tinh budng bai thudng do tdc ddng ciia cdc yeu td tu nhien gdy ra Day cung la hai mdt xicb (nguyen nhdn) chinh trong chudi mdt xich (nguyen nhdn) ddn ddn thuc trang du bdo ydu kem d nudc ta hien nay
2.L2 Thuc trgng du bdo ve khd ndng xudi hien cdc tinh hud'ng bdt thudng do idc dgng ciia cdc ydu td xd hgi d nudc ta
Cung nhu du bao vd kha ndng xudi hien cac tinb hud'ng bai thudng do tdc ddng cua cdc ydu to tu nhien, du bdo vd kha ndng xudi hien nhung tinh hud'ng bdi thudng do su tac ddng cua cac yeu to xa hdi la bd phdn cd'u thdnh cua hoiit ddng du bao xa hdi Giua chiing cd nhting didm gidng va khac nhau nhat dinh Bdi la su tien doan, nen du bao vd kha ndng xudi hien nhung tinh hud'ng bat thudng do tac ddng ciia cac ydu td xa hdi cung cd tinh chdi tuang ddi va bao ham cd su thay ddi (tite cung phai chap nhdn cd sai so) Tuy nhien, sai sd ciia du bdo vd kha nang xuai hien nhung bat thudng do tac ddng cua cdc ydu td, xa bdi thudng nhd ban nhidu so vdi sai sd cua du bao vd kha ndng xudi hien cdc tinh hud'ng bdi thudng do tac ddng cila cdc ydu to tu nhien Didu dd, trude hdt dugc
quydt dinh bdi, thif nhd't, nhung tinh hud'ng
bdi thudng do tdc ddng ciia cac ydu td xa hdi, gdn lidn nhidu hon vdi hanh vi ciia con ngudi, vd viec nhdn thute nguyen nhdn cua hdnh vi ciia con ngudi cung dd dang vd chinh xdc hon so vdi nhdn thitc cdc hien tugng tu
nhien; thu hai, tinh bi quydt dinh vd mat xa
hdi cua nhu'ng tinh hud'ng bdi thudng do tac dgng cila cac yeu to xa hdi cung rd rang ban, hay ndi cdch khac, khdng mang tinh "bai
Trang 3HUC TRANG DUBAO VE
ngd" nhu cdc tinb hud'ng bai thudng ddi khi
xudi hien do su tdc ddng ciia cac ydu td tu
nhien Ndi tdm lai, ca sd dd du bao vd kha
ndng xuai hien cua nhung tinh hud'ng bdi
thudng do tdc ddng ciia cac yeu td xa hgi
vung chdc ban, ddng tin cay hem
The nhung, su xudi hien cua nhung tinh
hud'ng bdi thudng do tac ddng cua cdc yeu td
xa hdi d nudc ta trong thdi gian qua cho
thay, cdng tdc du bdo vd khd ndng xudi hien
ciia nhung tinh hud'ng bdi thudng do tdc
ddng cua cac yeu td xa hdi vita thieu lai vita
ydu, khdng ddp u'ng ddi hdi dugc dat ra ddi
vdi loai du bdo nay Cd the khAng dinh rdng,
chua bao gid cdng tdc du bdo bdc Id nhidu
ydu kem nhu hien nay Tit du bdo chuyen liia
gao, ddn du bdo vd sdn lugng mudi, ddn ddn
cdng tdc tham muu ciia Bd, nganh cdn liing
tiing da anh hudng tdi viec didu hanh ciia
Chinh phil vd Thii tudng Chinh phii Xin ddn
chiing ra ddy hai vu viec lam xudi hien tinh
hud'ng bdi thudng do su tdc ddng cua cdc yeu
td xa hdi lien quan ddn du bdo khdng chinh
xdc Dd Id tinb hud'ng bdi thudng xuai hien
tif chil truong ngirng xudi khau gao khi gid
tang dot bie'n (do tin ddn) gay thiet hai cho
ndng ddn vung ddng bdng Nam Bd 1dm cho
ndng ddn vd cung butc xuc Van dd la d chd,
vdo thang 4 nam 2008, ngudi ddn dd xd di
mua gao vi cd du bdo cua Bd Ndng nghiep
va Phdt tridn ndng thdn vd viec mdi miia
trong ndm 2008 ddn den thieu ebimg 01 trieu
tan gao Tren ca sd du bdo dd, mgt Quyei
dinh cua Chinh phu vd viec ngirng xudi khdu
giio ra nudc ngoai da dugc ban hanh Den
thang 08 ndm 2008, ddng bdng sdng Ciai
Long dugc mua, g^o tran ngdp thi trudng
khdng ai mua, gia gao xudi khdu bay gid rdt
manh, Bd con ndng ddn hdt sue buc xuc, Tdi
cd chuyen dd ddu bdt ddu tit viec du bdo
khdng chinh xdc Cung cdn luu y rdng Thai
Lan la nudc d Ddng Nam A trong t!idi gian
chiing ta ngUng xudi khau giiO da manh diin
xudi khdu gao \d da thu dugc lgi nhuan rdi
cao Day la chuyen cua gao xuai khdu, cdn
ddy la chuyen ciia mudi nhap khdu cung lien
quan den cdu chuyen du bdo kem Ddu ndm
2008 cd tin ddn vd chuyen se thieu hut mudi, nhung phai den cudi thdng 07 nam 2008, khi chuyen thieu hut mudi da trd nen hdt siic ndng bdng thi Bg Ndng nghiep va Phdt trien ndng thdn mdi thdng bao du bdo chinh thu'c ddu tien, theo dd nudc ta vdi chidu dai bd bidn ban 3000 km lai thieu them 200 nghin tan mudi, dua tdng lugng mudi phai nhap sau hai Idn du bdo la 430 nghin tan Van dd du bdo ydu kem thd hien d san lugng mudi du bao thu hoach la 1,1 trieu tan Ket qua du bdo ydu kem dd da gdy biic xiic cho du ludn
va gdy khd khdn cho quan ly xa hdi ciia Nha nudc Khi tiep cdn vdi cac chi tieu kinh te
-xa bdi dugc du bdo cho tung nam, nhidu ngudi (ca cdc d<ii bidu Qud'c hdi thao ludn tai Hdi trudng) ddu bet sute ban khodn, khi bidt de'n cdc chi tieu kinh te - xa hdi dugc du kidn cho timg nam tai chinh Van dd la d chd, dd xdy dung dugc chi tieu thi trude bet phai cd su du bdo dang tin cdy ma do tin cdy cua du bdo phu thudc rdi nhidu vao lugng thdng tin day dii vd chinh xdc Trong khi dd, chung ta lai du bao cham, thdm chi thieu chinh xdc ve su tang, gidm cua gid ddu the gidi, vd su tdc ddng tieu cue cua thi trudng chung khodn, thi trudng bdi dgng san Cdc
du bdo khdc nhu vd tang ty le dan so, vd nhu cdu ngudn nhdn lite, vd tdc dgng cua mdi trudng, vd gia tieu dung, vd dp lire cila cdc phuong tien tham gia giao thdng cung cd rdi nhidu sd lieu khdc nhau trong cung mgt linh vuc Chung ta vdn chua thdnh lap Vien Chidn luge kinh td - xa bdi qudc gia dung tdm cd, chua cd Hdi ddng tu van giup Thu tudng trong viec du bao va hoach dinh chien luge phdt tridn kinh te - xa hgi Kdt qud la, cdc chuang trinh dua nhau lam mia dudng,
xi mang, ddnh bdt xa bd, nudi cd tre phi, nudi cd sau, xudi khdu gao v.v gay mdi dn dinh thi trudng, tao ra nhung butc xuc khdng dang cd trong nhdn ddn
Khiing hoang sdn choi cho tre - van dd khdng cdn mdi nhung gdy butc xuc trong du ludn xa hdi md xet ddn ciing cQng lien quan de'n du bdo Dd la chuyen sdn choi cho tre ngay he vd rdng ban, dd la nhung diem vui
Trang 4^kPUAPLUATSO 12/
choi giai tri cd tinh gido due cho tre em
trong sudt quang ddi du tha cua minh Theo
con sd thdng ke thi chi trong nam 2007,
trong ca nudc cd ban 900.000 trudng hgp tai
nan thuong tich xay ra vdi tre em, lam tit
vong bon 7500 chdu, trong dd cd khdng it
chdu bi chei dudi Vdy ma, ngudi ta vdn
thudng coi nguyen nhdn cua tinb trang dd
chi la d nhung cdi hd, cdi viing tren nhung
cdng trinh dang thi cdng bi ngdp do mua
nhidu (?), sd cdn lai la do ngudi Idn khdng
kidm sodt khi cdc chdu di gidi tri tren ao,
sdng, hd v.v cdn viec khung hoang sdn choi
cho tre em hdu nhu khdng dugc du bdo Cd
nhien them vao "dung lugng" cua nhutng
nguyen nhdn ddn den tai nan ciia tre em gdy
birc xuc trong du ludn xa bdi cdn la thdi do
thd o, thidu trdch nhiem ciia ngudi Idn vd ca
cila nhu'ng chinh sdch xa bdi chua thda ddng
cho cac em Viec cdc em quay phd ngodi
dudng phd bdng xe dap Xgame gay mdi trat
tu an todn giao thdng cung nhu viec cac em
bai sdng, boi bd, boi sudi khdng cd su giam
sdt cua ngudi Idn la do khdng cd bd boi, chd
vui choi an toan cho tre Khung bodng sdn
choi, la tinh budng bat thudng xudi hien do
CO chd, do thidu su quan tdm hay quan tdm
chua dung miic tit cdc chinh sdch vl md vdn
xudi phdt tit nhung du bdo kem hoac khdng
chinh xdc, bode khdng dugc du bdo Lien
quan den dit bdo vd khd nang xudi hien tinb
budng bdi thudng do tdc ddng cua cdc ydu td
xa hdi, cd thd lay mdi quan he giua nan thdi
nghiep va te nan xa hdi vdn dang gdy butc
xuc trong du ludn xa hdi, dd phdn tich Trong
nhung ndm gdn ddy tinh hinh triit tu xa hdi d
cdc vung ndng thdn didn bidn rdi xau, cd
nhung liic bet siic trdm trgng Nhidu vu gdy
rdi, ddnh nhau, cudp gidt, trdm cdp chu
ydu la do thanh thidu nien khdng cd nghd
nghiep thiic bien Cd thd khdng dinh rdng,
giua niin thdi nghiep va te nan xa hgi cd mdi
lien he mat thidt vdi nhau Cang nhidu ngudi
thdi nghiep thi cdng phdt sinh nhidu van niin
xa hgi Cdng nhidu van n;in xa hdi cdng ddn
nhidu ngudi (Idp tre) ddn thdi nghiep, bdi "d
khdng la cdi rd cua mgi sir du" Do khdng du
bdo chinh xdc kha ndng xay ra thdi nghidp
(hay ndi chinh xac hon la khdng mudn ndi manh den thai nghiep) nen van nan thai nghiep cua thanh, thidu nien chua dugc quan tdm giai quyet thoa dang Thay vi md nhidu trudng nghe, trung tdm tu van va gidi thieu viec lam d cdc dia phuong ngudi ta tidn hanh viec md nhidu trudng dai hgc (ciia tinh), thay
vi tuyen truydn viec hgc nghd cho thanh thidu nien, nhidu td chuc, doan the dia phuong td chu'c cac sinh boat vui ve, dn do, nhung vd bd Van dd la lam sao dd con ngudi miet mai lao ddng dt khdng cdn thdi gian suy nghi va thuc hien hanh vi sai trdi Va mgi thii phai bdt ddu tit dit bdo
2.2 Phuang hudng hodn thien du bdo
ve khd ndng xuat hien nhiing tinh hudng bdt thudng do tdc dgng cua cdc yeu td tic nhien vd xd hgi a nudc ta trong thdi gian tdi
Viec du bdo vd kha ndng xudi hien cdc tinb hudng bdi thudng do tac ddng cua cdc ydu td tu nhien va xa hdi, xet den cung la su
du bdo mang tinh khoa bgc dua tren viec lam sdng td, cdn nhdc vd phdn tich cdc quy ludt dac trung cua nhu'ng tinh hud'ng dd Do vay, mgt trong nhung phuong budng hodn thien viec du bdo la nhdn thite mdt cdch diing ddn
CO sd cua viec du bdo vd khd ndng xudi hien ciia nhung tinh hudng bdi thudng, tute nhung tinb hud'ng cd thd ndi "tren mute binh thudng" bay la gdy khd khan thitc su cho viec quan ly nhd nudc vd xa bdi cung nhu tao
ra sir du'c xiic that sir trong du ludn xa hdi Quy luat cua su phdt tridn tu nhien va xa hdi chinh Id co sd ciia viec du bdo ndi chung, trong dd cd du bdo vd kha nang xuat bien nhu'ng tinh hud'ng bat thudng trong xa hdi Ndi cdch khdc, co sd ciia viec du bao vd kha ndng xudi bien nhutng tinh hudng bdi thudng
la nhutng mdi lien he tdi ydu, dn dinh giua cdc su vat, bien tugng hay giu'a nhung mat hien tugng, su vat Mgi quy ludt cila su phat tridn, dac biet la phdt tridn xa bdi ddu dua tren mdt kieu cdc mdi lien he va su phu thudc nhdn qua nhdi djnh Nhutng ludn diem
dd cQng la co sd cho viec xdc dinh cac quy ludt cua cdc tinb hudng bdi thudng Nhu'ng quy ludt cila su phdt tridn (xudi hien, didn
Trang 5HUCTRANG DUBAO Vif
bidn) cdc tinh hud'ng bat thudng la mdi lien
he giua nhirng tinh hud'ng bdi thudng vdi cdc
nhdn td tu nhien, kinh td - xa hgi Quy luat
dd the bien d mdi lien be Idn nhau giua cac
thdng sd CO ban cua cdc quan he xa hgi vdi
trang thdi thuc td ciia nhung tinb hudng bdi
thudng Mdi lien he Idn nhau dd the hien d
chd tuong utng vdi mdt nd'c thang phdt tridn
ciia xa bdi, mdi budc trong sir chuydn dgng
ciia tti nhien, kinh td, xa hdi vd van hod vd
phia trude, cdc tinh hud'ng xa bdi, trong dd
cd nhung tinb hudng bdi thudng, cd mdt
triing thdi vd khuynh hudng phdt tridn cua
chung Vice xudi bien trong thuc td nhung
tinh budng bdi thudng tuy thudc vdo nhidu
nhdn td khdch quan vd chu quan chdng ban
vao hoan cdnh tu nhien vd hoan canh lich su
hoac chinh tri - xa bdi cu thd Do vay, de dif
bdo duac khd ndng xudi hien cdc linh hudng
bdi thudng do lac dtJng ciia cdc yen id lit
nhien vd xd hdi, cdn ndng cao khd ndng
phdn tich mot cdch khoa hgc cdc mdi lien he
Idn nhau ciia cdc linh hudng bdt thudng vd
ddc diem ciia sif phdt trien I if nhien kinh le
- xd hdi vd chinh tri Viec dit bao vd kha
ndng xudi bien cac tinb hudng bdi thudng do
tac dgng cua cdc ydu td tti nhien va xa hgi
cdn phdi dugc tidn hdnh tren co sd xem xet
cd can cu' va xdc dinh dugc nhung thay ddi
trong tu nhien, trong ddi sdng kinh te - xd
hdi, trong su phdt tridn cua co cd'u xa bdi vd
cdc mdi lien be Idn nhau cua cdc tdng Idp
dan cu vdi tut nhien giua hg vdi nhau trong
su phdt tridn y thuc cua qudn chung va cdc
Igi ich cua bg cd lien quan ddn nhiing tinh
hud'ng xa hdi nhdi dinh
Hodn thien phuong phap dti bao cQng la
mdt trong nhung phuong budng hoan thien
dir bdo vd khd ndng xudi hien nhung tinb
hud'ng biii thudng do tdc ddng cua cdc ydu td
tu nhien vd xa hgi Thiit ra, thuat ngu "du
bao" dugc dp dung dd bidu hien viec nghien
ciru xa hgi ma muc dich cua nd Id thu nhiin
dugc nhung thdng tin ddy du cu thd vd trang
thai trong tuong lai ciia mdt khdch thd xa hgi
ndi d ddy la tinh hudng biii thudng cd kha
nang xdy ra do tdc dgng cua cdc ydu td tu
nhien va xa hgi Viec du bdo vd trang thai cua khdch thd dd phai dugc tidn hanh bdng rdi nhidu phuong phdp du bdo ndi chung Vd tdng thd cd thd chia cdc phuong phdp dd thanh hai nhdm Idn: Nhdm cdc phuong phdp xir ly khia canh sd lugng cua hien tugng (hay cdn ggi la cdc phuong phdp todn hgc) vd nhdm phuang phdp di sdu phdn tich vd chdi ciia hidn tugng (phuong phdp chuyen gia chang ban) Khi tidn hanh du bdo phai sir dung tdng hgp cd hai nhdm phuong phdp mdi cd thd di sdu vao ca mat sd lugng Idn cd mat chdi lugng cua hien tugng nham dua ra nhung dir bdo phu hgp khdch quan Dac biet cdn thuc hien tdt phuang phdp so sdnh trang thdi thuc te ciia nhung du lieu da thu thap dugc trong qud khut vd hien tai, tir dd "chdn dodn" kha ndng xudi hien tinb budng bdi thudng vdi "md hinh ly tudng" cua chung, tute vdi triing thdi dugc coi la binh thudng
De thuc hien dugc viec so sdnh dd, cdn phai thu nhdn dugc nhung thdng tin chinh xdc vd ddy du vd buc tranh hien thuc vd khach quan triing thdi cua nhung tinh budng binh thudng
va bdi thudng (khi cd su tdc ddng cua cac yeu td tu nhien vd xd bdi)
Ddi vdi du bdo vd khd nang xuat bien cdc tinh hudng bdi thudng do tdc ddng ciia cdc nhdn td khdc nhau, dac biet la nhdn td tu nhien ydu td ky thuat cdng nghe vd nang luc cua con ngudi la vd cung quan trgng Cd the ndi rdng ky thuat cdng nghe du bdo thdi tidt ciia ngdnh khi tugng nudc ta so vdi cac nudc khu vuc, cung da "xiitng tdm" Trong nhung nam qua, theo Bg trudng Bg Tai nguyen vd Mdi trudng Pham Khdi Nguyen, tidn ddu tu cho ngdnh khi tugng thuy van ludn tieu khdng bdt, nam nao cQng phai tra lai 30 - 40
ty ddng Cdi ma ngdnh dang thie'u Id cdn bg dii trinh dg dd cd thd didu khidn mdy tinh hien dai chuyen phdn tich sd lieu khi tugng Van dd la d chd thien nhien thi khd ludng, song ndng lire cua con ngudi la cd gidi hiin
va cdng bi gidi biin hon khi tinh chu quan cua con ngudi ludn bi chi phdi bdi cdng vice,
kd ca trong khoa hgc Thien tai khdng loai tru mdt ai, song ai du dodn dugc chinh xdc
Trang 6HA NUdc VA PHAP LUAT SO 12/200*
xu hudng van ddng cua nd va kha nang xudi
hien nhung tinb hud'ng bdi thudng thi ngudi
dd cd the nd trdnh, ban chd ddn miic thd'p
nhdi thien tai va It nhdi cung chii dgng phdng
ngita thiet bai cd the gdy ra Didu dd ctlng
hoan toan cd y nghla ddi vdi viec du bao vd
kha nang xuat hien nhiing tinh hud'ng bat
thudng do tac ddng cua cac nhan td xa hdi
Do vdy, mdt trong nhifng phuang hudng
hodn thien dif bdo ve khd ndng xudi hien
nhifng linh hudng bdt thudng do tdc ddng
ciia cdc yen td lit nhien vd xd hdi la ddu tif
nhdn life xdc ddng cho khoa hgc du bdo
thien tai vd xd hdi nifdc nhd Dau tu nhdn luc
xdc dang cho khoa hgc du bao la viec lam
cap bdch, vi ciing theo thuc trang chung ciia
cdc ngdnh, cdc linh vitc khoa hgc khdc la chi
mdt thdi gian khdng Idu nua, phdn Idn can
bd cd kinh nghiem trong nganh khi tugng
thuy van se vd huu hdt, trong khi dd, chdi
lugng sinh vien ddu vao ngdnh hgc khi tugng
thuy van bien nay Id rdi thd'p, khdng nhung
the lai rdi khd tuydn ngudi Trung binh mdt
sinh vien ra trudng, mdi it nhat la mdt sd
ndm nhdi dinh mdi cd thd du bdo dugc khi
tugng Ddi vdi sinh vien sau khi ra trudng,
luong thd'p cung la mdt nguyen nhdn khien
nganh khi tugng thuy van khdng giu dugc
chdn ngudi tdi d lai lam viec
Thdng tin khdng diing su that, tdi ydu
ddn ddn du bdo sai Thdng tin khdng dung su
that xudi phat tit nhidu nguyen nhdn, trong
dd cd ca te quan lieu vd trong nhidu trudng
hgp do viing "trung than", O day dat ra van
dd, ai se phai chiu trdch nhiem, Trdch nhiem
vd viec du bao sai thudc vd cd nhdn ngudi cd
trdch nhiem trong du bdo, la hgp ly nhdi,
Ndu du bdo sai, ngudi cd trdch nhiem bi each
chute thi chdc chdn ban che rdi nhidu sai sdt
trong du bdo Cd nhien, trdch nhidm phai trd
thdnh thuc td chut khdng phai "xin ldi" rdi
"nhdn lay trdch nhiem ma khdng bi xii ly"
nhu vu lua, gao rdt gid ma Bd trudng Bd
Ndng nghiep va Phdt tridn ndng thdn vdn tiii
chuc Nhu vdy, theo chiing tdi, mdt trong
nhung phuong hudng hoan thien du bdo vd
kha nang xuai bien nhiing tinh hudng bai thudng do tac ddng cua cac ydu to tu nhien
va xa hdi la quy dinh va thuc hien nghiem chinh trach nhiem ciia ngudi cd thdm quydn trong du bao
Ndi de'n phuang budng hoan thien du bdo vd kha nang xuat hien nhting tinh hudng bdi thudng do tac ddng ciia cac yeu
td tu nhien va xa hdi khdng the khdng ndi ddn su can thiet phai xay dung ngay Vien Chien luge kinh td - xa hdi qud'c gia diing tdm cd, cung nhu thanh lap ngay Hdi ddng
tu van giiip Thu tudng Chinh phu trong viec
du bdo vd kha nang xudi hien nhiing tinh hud'ng bdi thudng
Tit nhung didu phdn tich tren day, cd the kei ludn rdng, dd cd thd du bao tdt, ciing mdt luc phai dap ung nhidu ydu to, trong dd ydu td quan trgng nhdi thudc vd con ngudi Bdi vdy, Nha nudc mdt mat phai lien hanh ddng bd trong mdt tdng thd cdc bien phap, didu kien, mat khac cdn cd Id trinh hoan thien viec dao lao, bdi dudng va cd chinh sach dai ngd xung ddng can bd lam cdng tdc du bao Van de la d chd, viec dit bdo kip thdi, chinh xac se cho phdp chiing ta chuydn tit the bi ddng sang the chu ddng giai quydt cdc van dd cila ddi sdng
xa hdi trong tinh hud'ng cd su tdc ddng cua cac ydu id tu nhien va xa bdi, nhdi la trong thdi ky hdi nhap, nbOng tac ddng nhidu chidu cua tinh binh kinh td - xa hdi, chinh tri the gidi ludn anh hudng lieu cue de'n nudc ta bang ngay, hang gid Chi cd du bdo kjp thdi, chinh xac, mdi ndm bdt dugc cac co hdi, giam thidu nguy co, va ban the, trdnh dugc nhung tinh hud'ng bdi thudng vdn dugc binh thanh cd the tit nhung tinh budng xa hdi cd van dd bode dot ngdt tit thien tai, dich boa Tit du bao de'n viec giam thieu nhung tinh hud'ng bai thudng do tdc ddng cua cac yeu td tu nhien va
xa bdi la mdt con dudng thdng nhdi va cdn ddn su nd luc rdi Idn ciia loan xa hdi, ddc biet
la cua CO quan va cd nhdn true tiep lam cdng tdc du bdo