Quan hệ kinh tế Mỹ - Nhật Bản 1931-1941

Ve phfa My, vi bong lfi mfit hfing xufi't k h i u quan trgng nhfi't sang Nhfit ddng thdi sfl phat trien ngfinh trdng bdng vfi sd che bdng cung phy thudc vfio xufi't k h i u hdn bfi'[r]

^'

QIJAN HE HINH TE MY-l^IHAT BAN

1931-1941

TRAN T H I £ N THANH*

Giai doan 1931-1941 chflng kidn sfl

thay ddi tinh chfi't trong quan hf

My-Nhfit Ban tfl eanh tranh sang chien

tranh Trong sud't nhiing nfim 1930, mfic

dfl cflng cd tham vgng ddi vdi Viin

Ddng-Thfii Binh Dfldng, nhflng My vfi Nhfit Ban

theo dudi nhiing mye tieu cy t h l khdng

gid'ng nhau, thfim chi trfii ngfldc nhau

Trong khi Nhfit Ban mud'n Washington

chfi'p nhfin ti If ngang bang v l lflc Mgng

hai quan, md rgng anh hfldng d Trung Qud'c

vfi Ddng Nam A, ddng thdi ngan can sfl iing

bd cfla My ddi vdi eac cfldng qud'c cbau Au,

thi My lai mud'n duy tri flu the vd hai qufin

vdi Nhfit Ban, thflc hifn chinh sach "md

cfla" d Trung Qud'c vfi ngfin chfin qua trinh

banh trfldng cua Nhfit bfing ehinh saeh

"khdng tham chidn" Vifc thye hifn nhiing

mye tieu trai ngflge dd da nudi dfldng tinh

trang xung dot trong quan hf My - Nhfit

Ban vfi cudl cflng kdt thflc bfing mdt eudc

chidn tranh

Song, trong khi tfnh chfi't ddi diu vfi

xung dot ngfiy cfing gia tfing trong quan hf

an nmh-cMnb trj My-Nhfit Ban tM quan

hf kinh te lai cbo chflng ta thfi'y mdt sic

thfii khac trong mdi quan hf gifla hai qudc gia ddi difn vdi nhau qua dai dfldng rdng nhfi't the gidi nfiy

Vifc pban tfch cac sd lifu kinh te se cho chflng ta thfi'y ro dilu dd (Xem bang 1) Bang 1 eho thfi'y, gifi trj xufi't-nhfip khiu tfl nfim 1931-1940 gifla My vfi chau A xep thfl 3 chi sau chau Au vfi Bic My Trong

dd, can can thfldng mai My - Nhfit chiem tdi khoang 45% gia tri xufi't k h i u vfi 21,9% gifi trj nhfip khau vdi tofin chau A Gia tri thfldng mai vdi Nhfit Ban cung gfi'p tren 4

l i n v l xufi't k h i u vfi tren 2 l i n vl nhfip

k h i u so vdi Trung Qudc Ti If nfiy cflng ldn hdn nhidu l i n so vdi eac qud'c gia, viing dfi't khae d chau A Ngofii ra, gifi tri thfldng mai qua eanh va chuyen tfiu eua Nhfit Ban qua Ifinh thd My tfl 1933-1940 cung chidm phin ldn nhfi't so vdi tofin chau A (Bang 2)

Cac so' Uf u tren eho thfi'y, trong khi tinh trang xung dot ngfiy cfing gia tfing trong quan hf an ninh-cMnh trj gifla My vfi Nhfit Ban, quan hf thfldng mai song phfldng vfin tiep tyc dflge duy tri, thfim ehi gia tfing trong nhidu nfim dfic bift lfi tfl 1931-1937, hofic giam khdng dfing ke tfl 1938-1940

*TS Khoa Ljch sfl - Trfldng Dai hgc KHXH&NV - DHQG HN

Quan h^ hinh te my-Rhat Bin 35

B a n g 1: Xuat (gdm ca tai xuat) • nhap khau h a n g hoa giiifa My (gdm cac bang luc dia My, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico v a tir 1-1-1935 d e n 31-12-1939 la

Virgin Island) v6i cac chau luc, qudc gia t i e u bieu tU 1931

Dcfn vi: 1.000 USD

C h a u l ^ c /

Quo'c gia

t i e u b i e u

T o n g

Bic My

Nam My

Chau Au

Chau A

N h p Ban

Trung Quoc

Philippines

Quan Dong

(Kwantung)

Hong Kong

An Dp

Mien Di$n

Dong Dudng

Chau Dai

dudng

Chau Phi

Xua't k h a u (gom c a t a i xua't)/nh|lp k h a u

1931-1936 Trung binh

m o i nfim

2.025.196/

1.713.102

462.806/

413.421 141.074/

244.160 960.158/

518.313 349.911/

490.909 169.567/

148.186 62.571/

47.775 47.680/

89.174 2.836/

2.073 10.154/

5.602

28.067/

50.509

1.221/

754 48.868/

16.209 62.377/

32.088

1936

2.456.978/

2.422.592

616.711/

618.580 204.222/

291.505 1.042.804/

717.544 398.885/

707.728 204.348/

171.744 46.819/

74.232 60.350/

101.679 3.542/

3.988 8.550/

8.541

26.807/

70.340

3.120/

4.187 79.154/

35.865 114.202/

51.398

1937

3.349.167/

3.083.668

840.126/

890.476 318.354/

422.026 1.359.610/

843.329 579.971/

967.261 288.558/

204.201 49.703/

103.622 85.032/

126.061 16.088/

3.708 20.266/

9.213

•

43.747/

95.942

2.532/

6.577 98.948/

68.428 152.158/

92.148

1938

3.094.440/

1.960.428

739.994/

490.228 299.714/

262.613 1.352.943/

567.226 516.777/

589.503 239.662/

126.762 34.719/

47.189 86.464/

94.244 17.005/

1.626 21.288/

3.367 33.441/

58.354 2.322/

224 3.128/

7.137 93.662/

16.189 118.350/

54.671

1939

3.177.176/

2.318.081

802.197/

580.629 329.127/

317.267 1.289.753/

617.166 561.572/

699.582 232.184/

161.212 55.614/

61.831 99.939/

91.927 15.751/

1.546 18.121/

3.570 42.811/

66.401 4.065/

426 8.246/

9.611 79.505/

26.705 115.023/

76.732

1940

4.021.146/ 2.626.378

1.085.888/ 693.408 435/584/ 395.105 1.645.428/ 390.161 619.210/ 980.869 227.220/ 158.376 77.968/ 93.002 93.315/ 89.671 9.857/ 2.096 17.387/ 3.193 68.428/ 102.204 8.050/ 1.857 6.019/ 13.080 94.483/ 34.673 160.609/ 131.162

Ngudn: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the US 1941

36 R g h i ^ cflu Lich siSr s g 5.2010

Bang 2: Thfldng m^i qua canh va chuydn tau cua My (gdm cac bang lyc dja My, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico vfi tfl 1-1-1935 den 31-12-1939 Ifi Virgin Island) ttt 1933-1940

Ban vi: 1.000 USD

N&m

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

1939

1940

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

1939

1940

C h a u l ^ c vk c&c q u o c g i a t i § u b i e u

tiJf

C h u y e n

d ^ n

B i c My

T o n g 90.060

108.293

101.472

111.432

121.161

91.672

117.112

172.147

35.204 42.888 47.994 44.134 60.888 43.633 58.304 70.053

C h a u P h i

T o n g 1.108

639

452

373

853

561

1.260

2.786

3.484 4.496 4.516 5.579 8.124 4.641 6.775 23.822

N h ^ n tvr

C h u y e n

d e n

N a m My

T o n g 10.359 12.227 14.802 14.733 23.402 9.974 15.997 51.021

11.969 17.048 19.479 20.919 31.370 22.259 34.919 38.685

N h ^ t i f C h u y d n

d e n

C h a u A u

T o n g 25.261 27.182 27.823 30.771 41.970 30.198 39.898 38.233

78.266 83.730 61.702 75.165 68.162 50.394 64.610 119.759

N h | i n t v r C h u y d n

d e n

C h a u D a i di^ofng

Tong

2.216 2.722 1.285 1.840 1.959 1.391 1.950 3.607

2.880 6.357 10.737 9.444 15.110 10.868 10.381 7.788

C h a u A To'ng

7.223 12.710 12.717 9.229 13.808 8.636 10.451 16.057

4.425 9.454 14.123 13.137 19.590 10.638 11.679 23.745

N h ^ t B a n 2.493

4.454 4.842 3.681 6.882 3.058 4.591 4.670

1.570 5.334 9.837 9.266 14.062 5.035 5.775 12.163

Ngu6n: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the US 1941

Tuy nhien, gia tri xufi't k h i u cac mfit

hfing tfl My sang Nhfit vfi ngflge lai c6 sy

thay ddi dang ke Trfldc day, vfio cudi t h d ky

XIX d i u the ky XX, Nhfit Ban lfi nfldc cung

cfi'p lya, ehe vfi mgt sd^ m a t h a n g sd cfi'p ldn

nhfi't cfla My Ngflge lai My cflng la ngudn

cung cfi'p chu yeu ve bong, d i u mo, gd, bgt

gifi'y, p h a n bon, cho Nhfit Ban Td lya vfi bong lfi nhiJtng mfit hfing the m a n h eua moi nfldc vfi lfi mgt trong nhiing tac n h a n hfldng ndn kinh te cua ca My, Nhfit Ban t h a m gia tich eye vfio nen thfldng mai the gidi, md rgng thj trfldng xufi't-nhfip k h i u eac san

p h i m thfldng mai Song tfl d i u nhiing nfim

Quan h^ hinh tef my-Hhat Bin 37

Bang 3: Nh|ip khau slit ph^ lieu cua Nhat B ^ tii 1929-1938

Dctn vi: tan

Niidc/

v i m g

Man Chau

Trung Quoc

Thupe dja

cua Anh

Dong An

thugc Hk

Lan

Uf

Australia

Cac nu6c

khac khac

Tdng

1929-1932 (TB h&ng nam)

9.600 13.900 111.800

25.200

163.500 11.600 122.400

467.900

1929-1932 (%) 2,1%

3 %

24,4%

5,5%

35,7%

2,5%

26,7%

100%

1933-1936 (TB h a n g nam)

13.500 17.200 132.800

40.600

942.100 27.200 210.200

1.403.800

1933-1936

(%) 1%

1,2%

9,5%

2,9%

67,2%

3,4%

15%

100%

1937

43.900 10.700 200.100

97.400

1.777.000 84.000 206.700

2.419.800

1937

(%) 1,8%

0,4%

8,3%

4%

73,4%

3,5%

8,5%

100%

1938

47.200 30.200 81.700

66.700

1.006.700 30.400 95.000

1.357.900

1938 (%)

3,5% 2,2% 6%

4,9%

74,1% 2,2% 7,1%

100%

Ngu6n: Mantetsu, Tokyo shia, chosashitsu, Nichi-Bei tsuslio Icokai joyalcu tiaici no eilcyo narabini sonotaisaku (Tokyo, 1939) DSn theo Michael A Bamhart, Japan prepares for total war, Ttie search for economic security, 1919-1941, Cornell

University Press, Ithaca and London, 1987, tr 145

Bang 4: Nhap khau thep cua Nhat B a n trong cac nfim 1933,1937

Dcfn vi: tdn

Nfldc

My

1933

Tren 1.000.000 tfi'n th6p phe lieu

1937

990.000 ta'n th^p thoi

Ngudn: Tdng hop tCf Eliot Janeway, Japanese purcliases in ttie American Economy, Far Eastern Survey, Vol 7, No 11

(Jan., 1,1938), tr.l24

B a n g 5: Nhap khau gang cua Nhat B a n tii 1936-1937

Dan vi: tdn

Nfldc

Man Chau Ly

Anh

My

An Do thugc Anh

Cac nfldc khac

Tdng

1936 (ca nfim)

271.225 2.263

573 375.323 322.585

971.969

1937 (6 t h a n g dau nfim)

120.570 4.642 148.741 171.660 69.548

515.771

Ngu6n: Mantetsu, Tokyo shia, chosashitsu, Shino jihen stiori narabini Ostiu senso boppatsu ni tomonau senji Iceizai taisalcu (Tokyo, 1939) D5n theo Michael A Bamhart, Japan prepares for total war, The search for economic security 1919-1941,

Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, 1987, tr 150

2S Rghien cuu Lich sit s6 5.2010

B a n g 6: Xuat k h a u dau mo tiJf My s a n g Nh^t Ban trong cac nfim 1936 va 1937

Dem vi: thiing

N a m

So thung

1936 (9 t h a n g dau nfim)

16.574.000

1937 (9 t h a n g dau nfim)

23.102.000

1937 (fldc t i n h ca nfim)

30.000.000 Ngofii ra My con xua't sang Man Chau Ly 2.250.000 thung

Ngu6n: Tdng bap tir Eliot Janeway, Japanese purchases in the American Economy, Far Eastern Survey, Vol 7,

No 11 (Jan., 1,1938), tr.l25, 126

B a n g 7: Xuat khau may moc cua My nfim 1937

Dcfn vi: l.OOOUSD

Nfldc Nhfit Ban Anh Cac nfldc khac

T o n g cong

1937

Khoang 9.000 11.300 19.700

40.(HX)

Ngu6n: T6ng hop tiJ Eliot Janeway, Japanese purchases in the American Economy, Far Eastern Survey, Vol 7,

No 11 (Jan., 1,1938), tr 127

30 cfla t h d k y XX, Nhfit Ban da giam nhfip

k h i u bong vfi cfic vfit lieu khac nhfl gd, bgt

gifi'y (vo'n chiem ti trgng ldn nhfi't trong

tdng gifi tri xufi't k h i u cfla My sang Nhfit

trfldc khflng hoang) de tfip t r u n g ngudn vo'n

CO b a n m u a nguyen lieu tho va eac t r a n g

thidt bj phye vy cong nghiep chien t r a n h

Thay vi nhfip k h i u nhidu bong, go vfi p h a n

bon nhfl trfldc day, Nhfit tfing cflcing m u a

th6p, sfit, gang, d i u md, vfi may moc

(Bang 3, 4, 5, 6 vfi 7)

Cau hdi dfit r a b day lfi: Thff nhdt, t a i

sao khi tinh chfi't x u n g dot ngfiy cfing gia

tfing trong q u a n h e a n ninh-quan sy gifla

My va Nhfit Ban, My vfin tiep tyc xufi't

sang Nhfit eac nguyen vfit lieu co y nghia

ehien Iflgc eho chidn t r a n h Viec xufi't k h i u

do tac dgng nhfl t h e nao den nen eong

nghiep My va co gop p h i n thflc d i y sy

bflng nd chidn t r a n h ci My nhfl da tflng xay

r a nfim 1916-1917 khong? Thff hai, viec

nhfip khfiu nhflng mfit hfing nfiy co dong vai tro thidt yeu trong Iflgng tieu t h y th^p,

d i u vfi eae nguyen vfit lieu q u a n trgng khae ddi vdi s a n xufi't eong nghiep vfi chien t r a n h cfla Nhfit B a n h a y khong?

De t r a loi nhflng eau hoi nfiy, chflng ta

p h a i cfin cfl vfio t h y c t r a n g k i n h te vfi quan diem cua gidi e l m quyen My vfi Nhfit Ban

ve eac vfi'n de c6 lien quan

Vd phia Nhfit Ban, tfl k i n h nghiem trong qua khfl vfi nhiing bfii hge ve eae eugc xung dot gifla eae cflcing qudc t r e n the gidi, ehinh gidi Nhfit B a n nhfin thflc ro rfing rfing ket qua cfla cae cugc ehien t r a n h trong tfldng lai khong ehi dfldc djnh doat bfing sung d a n mfi con b i n g k h a nfing huy dgng tfi't ca cac ngudn lflc cfla dfi't nfldc

Quan he hinh t& STy-Rhat BJbi 39

Neu Nhfit khong xay dflng dflge mgt nen

cong nghiep Men dai sfin sang dap flng mgi

yeu clu khi cin thiet thi mgi no lflc khae

cung se thfinh vo nghia Mgt qudc gia

khong c6 kha nfing tfl dap flng cac nhu clu

trong thcli chidn se bj cac nfldc khac gfiy sflc

6p ve kinh te, do d6 vfla khong dam bao

dflge an ninh vfla khong co ehu quyen thye

sfl

Ngay tfl nfim 1915, dfla tren ket qua

didu tra tinh binh Nhfit Ban, mien Bfic vfi

Trung Trung Qudc, nghien cflu ky tae

phim viet vd nhflng no lflc cfla Dflc nhim

xay dflng nen kinh te tfl chfl trong tbdi

chien, dai ta Koiso Kuniaki da de xufi't mgt

ke hoach vdi hai ngi dung ehinh: Thff nhdt,

Koiso cho rfing ea dao qudc Nhfit Ban hay

cfic thugc dia cua Nhfit gdm Dfii Loan,

Trieu Tien, Nam Sakhalin deu khong eung

cfi'p du cae ngudn lyc eho viSc tien hfinh

mgt cugc ehien tranh hi6n dai Vi vfiy, vfi'n

dd cfi'p bach dfit ra ddi vdi Nhfit Ban lfi phai

chiem dflge nhflng Ifinb thd gifiu co hdn, vi

dy Trung Qudc Thff hai, neu khong c6 mgt

ndn kinh td ngi dja dflge td ehflc tot, eo the

huy dgng nhanh eh6ng vfi hieu qua cho

chidn tranh thi viec bd sung them nhieu

ngudn lflc ben ngofii eung khong co gia tri

Theo Koiso, giai phfip lfi phai xay dflng mgt

ke hoach huy dgng tofin dien mgi ngudn lflc

(1) Ke hoach nay dflge Bg Qudc phong ung

hg

Tfl d6 den nfim 1931, Nhfit Ban da ban

hfinh mgt sd^ dao lufit vfi thfinh Ifip nhieu cd

quan de thyc hjen kd hoach nfiy nhfl Lufit

eung cfi'p dan dflge (1917), Cue Quan gidi

(1918), Ban Danh gia sflc manh qudc gia

(1920), Sfic Ignh ve nghiem cflu dan dflge

(1920), Cyc Trang bi (1924) thugc Bg Qudc

phong, Cyc Tfii nguyen thugc Ngi cac

(1927) Tai Hgi nghj l i n thfl 2 cua Cyc Tfii

nguyen cae nhfi hoach djnh ehinh sach

quan sfl vfi dan sfl dfla ra ke hoach d i u tien ve huy dgng tofin dign cho chidn tranh tdng lflc vfi dfl djnh hofin thign ke hoach nfiy vfio thang 9-1932 Trong dieu kien Nhfit thieu b l u bet cac nguyen vfit ligu thidt yeu cho mgt cugc chien tranh hien dai, giai phfip tfi't yeu lfi phai chiem cfic viing lanh thd c6 vj tri chidn Iflgc, gifiu tfii nguyen thien nhien vfi nhfip k h i u nguygn vfit lieu Tren thflc te, cflng vdi viec tfing cfldng xfim Iflgc Trung Quoc vfi Dong Nam

A, Nhfit Ban con diy manh nhfip khiu nhflng nguyen lieu cin thiet eho sfl phfit trien eong nghigp, dfic bi$t la eong ngbiep qufin sfl Ro rfing lfi, so vdi vi$c khai thfic tfii nguyen cl eac vflng lanh tho do Nhfit chiem dong, giai phap nhfip khfiu chi mang tinh tam thcli, song day v i n luon lfi ngudn

bd sung nguyen lieu quan trgng cho Nhfit Ban Sd lieu thdng kg cho thfi'y, tuy san Ifldng nguyen nhign ligu do Nhfit khai thac

cl eac thugc dja (dfic biet lfi d i u mo) kha ldn nhflng vfin khong dap flng dfl yeu clu cfla qufin dgi, nhfi't lfi hai quan Day cung lfi ly

do khien Nhfit de ra chfldng trinh diy tham vgng chiet xufi't d i u tong bgp tfl da phidn hofic than da song san Ifldng thflc te

luon b mflc rfi't thfi'p so vdi mye tigu de ra

(Xem bang 8)

Hdn nfla, trong qua trinh bfinh trfldng lanh thd vfi xay dflng nen kinh te tfl chu, Nhfit vfi'p phai lflc can rfi't ldn tfl Lign Xo Trong eugc hgp gifla cac tfldng linh quan dgi cao cfi'p td chfle thang 6-1933 dfldi sy ehu toa eua Bg trfldng Qude phdng Araki Sadao, tfi't ca cac thfinh vign tham dfl deu nhfi't tri cho r i n g Lign Xo lfi mdi de dga ldn nhfi't ddi vdi an ninh Nhfit Ban Thfing

9-1933, Araki de trinh Ign ngi cac kd hoach cung co' vj tri cfla Nhfit Ban ea trong vfi ngofii nfldc Xufi't phat tfl quan diem cho

r i n g Nhfit se phai ddi mfit vdi eugc khflng

40 Rghien curu Ljch sir, sd 5.2Q1Q

Bang 8: Muc tieu va san Ifl^tag dau tdng hdp cua Nhat Ban tii 1937-1941

B(fn vi: trieu lit

Nfim

1937

1938

1939

1940

1941

Muc t i e u

87

446

489

930

1243

San Ifldng thflc t e

5

11

21

24

194

Ngu6n: Bamhart, M.A (1987), Japan prepares for total war- The search for economic security, 1919-1941, Cornell

University Press, Ithaca and London, tr 146

hoang quo'c te vfio nam 1936, Araki dfla ra

ke hoach: b trong nfldc, Nhfit Ban phai tien

hfinh cai each giao dye vfi tfl tfldng de nang

cao tinh t h i n dan chflng, trg gia eho nong

dan vfi dam bao ngudn cung cfi'p Ifldng thyc

thyc phim dfl thfla ngi dja ddng thdi tai vu

trang vfi trign khai chfldng trinh tfing

cfldng dfic biet la ve nhien Ueu de giflp de

chd Nhfit Ban cbd'ng chgi vdi cugc khflng

hoang nfim 1936 O ngoai nfldc, Nhfit Ban

ein tfing cfldng kha nfing phdng thu Man

Chau Ly, loai Lign Xo ra khoi eae moi quan

he ddng minh vdi Nhfit, huge Trung Quo'c

phai cam ke't duy tri quan he hflu hao vdi

Nhfit Song neu chidn tranh xay ra vdi Lign

Xd, Nhfit Ban se phai tao ra mgt nfldc dem

d midn Bfic Trung Qud'c de bao ve sfldn

phia Bfic (2) Moi de dga tfl Lign Xd cfing

ldn hdn khi ddn nfim 1936 lyc Iflgng quan

sy eua Lien Xo b Vien Dong da tfing tfl 4 sfl

doan dflge trang bj sflng trfldng (1932) Ign

14 sfl dofin vdi gin 1.000 xe tfing vfi nhieu

may bay chien dfi'u cdn dgi quan Quan

Ddng cfla Nhfit ehi cd 3 sfl dofin vdi eac

trang thidt bj cu ky

Trong bdl eanh Nhfit Ban dang tfing

cfldng chidn tranh trdn lyc dja chau A,

ngudn eung cfi'p nguyen vfit lieu tfl thugc

dja khdng du dap flng nhu clu eua quan

dgi vfi cdng nghigp quan sy, phai ddi dign

vdi de doa sat sfldn tfl phia Lien Xd, Nhfit

phai tim each thoat khoi tinh trang hien

thdi bing each tim kiem giai phap hda binh (hofic it nhfi't lfi tranh xung dot tryc tiep) vdi cac cfldng qudc khac dfic bigt la My de tfing cfldng nhfip k h i u nguyen lieu va may mdc Song trong quan hg vdi My, gidi quan sfl Nhfit Ban ed hai y kien khac nhau Trong nghidn cflu d i u tien eua Ban Lanh dao ehien tranh vfio mfla hd nfim 1936, phe lye quan eho r i n g duy tri moi quan hg tdt dep vdi My lfi khdng the thieu de ddi phd vdi ke thfl nguy hiem nhfi't cua lyc quan lfi Lign Xd Trong khi dd, hai quan Nhfit lai coi My lfi mdi de doa ldn nhfi't trgn bien vfi

de xufi't ke hoach tfi'n cdng ca My vfi Lign

Xd, trong dd lyc quan tfi'n edng Lidn Xd, hai quan tfi'n edng My Song de xufi't cua hai quan hoc Id mdt nghich ly, dd lfi trong khi hai quan Nhfit tfi'n edng chien ham My thi Nhfit vfin se phai nhfip bdng cfla My, se, det sdi bdng vfi ban thfinh phim sang thi trfldng ehinh lfi My, phai nhfip tfl My cac loai thdp, hdp kim, may mdc vfi cac thiet bj phflc tap dfic biet cin thiet cho viec tien hfinh chien tranh Dieu dd cho thfi'y vfio thdi diem nfiy, phat ddng chien tranh vdi

My lfi giai phap thidu sang sudt Hdn nfla, theo phan tich eua lye quan, Nhfit Ban cin duy tri hofi binh trong it nhfi't 5 nfim dd md rgng san xufi't, tfing cfldng kha nfing dap ling cho qufin ddi (3)

Ve phia My, ngay tfl nfim 1927, Stanley Hornbeek, chuydn gia cua chinh phu My v l

Quan h^ hinh tg aTy-Rhat Bin 41

eac vfi'n dd Vien Ddng, da ndu quan diem

cho r i n g neu boat ddng cua Qud'c dan Dang

d Trung Qudc can trd d i u tfl nfldc ngofii vfi

lfim td'e do tfing trfldng kinh te cfla Nhfit

chfim lai, nfldc nfiy se huge phai hfldng sfl

phat tridn kinh td vfio lyc dja chau A dfl

cai gia phai tra lfi sfl hon loan ehinh trj b

Trung Qud'c vfi sfl khac biet ehinh tri sau

sfic vdi My vi an ninh cfla Nhfit phy thudc

vfio dieu dd Thang 6-1931, trgn cfldng vj

Trfldng ban Viin Ddng (thudc Bd Ngoai

giao), Hornbeek dfic bigt chfl y tdi sfl

ehuin bj huy ddng cac ngudn lflc cho cdng

nghigp cua Cyc Tfii nguygn Nhfit Ban vfi

nghi ngd r i n g Nhfit cd the vfldt qua sfl

thieu hyt tfii nguygn dd tien hfinh mdt ke

hoach chi tiet vfi hieu qua Tuy nhign, khi

sfl kien Man Chau xay ra, ca Hornbeek,

Ngoai trfldng My Stimson vfi cac nhan

vien Bg Ngoai giao chju trach nhiem phan

tich chinh sach dd'i ngoai cfla Nhfit deu

khdng thfit sfl tin vfio y djnh xay dyng ndn

kinh te tfl chfl cfla ehinh phu Nhfit Ly do

lfi Nhfit thidu h i u het cae nguygn ligu

ehien Ifldc de cd the bien y djnh dd thfinh

sfl thyc Cud'i nfim 1933, p h i n ldn ngfldi

My, trong dd cd Stanley Hornbeek, Joseph

Grew- Tan Dai sfl My tai Nhfit Ban vfin

tin r i n g vi^e Nhfit chiem Mfin Chau lfi vi

danh dy cua Lyc quan Nhfit chfl khdng

phai vi sy sdng edn cua ke hoach xay dflng

xay dflng ndn kinh te ty chfl Nhflng chinh

khach nfiy cho r i n g sdm hay mugn Lye

quan Nhfit se nhfin thfi'y vige phat trien

Mfin Chau tidu tdn cua Nhfit nhflng khoan

d i u tfl rfi't ldn vfi do dd huge phai dflng

vige xam chidm Hg qua lfi, Lyc quan se bj

mfi't danh dfl vfi gidi chfle dan sy dn hda

vdn ung hd quan hg chfit che vdi phfldng

Tay se trd lai nfim quydn (4) Tfldng tfl

nhfl vfiy, Tdng thdng Roosevelt cung tin

tfldng sau sfic r i n g ndn kinh te eua Nhfit

Ban ye'u, khdng cd kha nfing hofin thfinh

bfi't cfl chfldng trinh diy tham vgng nfio ke

ca trong nfldc hay b nxidc ngofii vfi se d i u

hfing trfldc bfi't cfl hfinh dgng cflng rfin nfio cfla My

Hdn nfla, vdi nhieu lgi the nhfl dign ticb lanh thd, sfl phong phfl vd tfii nguygn thign nhign, dan cfl tfl cud'i the ky XIX,

My dfi xay dyng dflge ndn td tfl chu, lfi nfldc dfin d i u ve san Iflgng cdng nghigp vfi gia trj xufi't k h i u nhieu mfit hfing quan trgng Trgn cd sd kinh td dd, quan didm cfla ngfldi My ve eae yeu td ed t i m quan trgng dfic bigt dd'i vdi an ninh qudc gia khae bigt dang ke vdi ngfldi Nhfit Ban

Sy khac bigt ve quan diem dd cfing gia tfing sau Chien tranh the gidi thfl Nhfi't Trong khi chinh gidi Nhfit Ban nd lflc ca

vd kinh te vfi quan sy de Dd che Nhfit khdng Ifip lai so' phfin nhfl nfldc Dflc thi gidi lanh dao My cho r i n g an ninh qude gia My phy thugc vfio sfl tai Ifip trfit tfl tofin clu dfla tren cfic nguydn tfic cfla lufit phap qud'c te, theo do moi qude gia ed quyen dgc Ifip vfi tfl do ve ehinh trj, ed ed hdi binh d i n g ve thfldng mai vdi cae nfldc khac Day cung lfi mdt trong nhflng ndi dung eua Chinh sach Md cfla dflge My ap dyng dd'i vdi cfic nfldc Ddng A tfl sau sfl kign Mfin Chau den trfldc cugc tfi'n edng cfla Nhfit tai Tran Chau cang vfi eua Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hang hai ky gifla My vfi Nhfit Ban trong eae nfim 1894 vfi 1911

Ngofii ra edn mdt 1^ do nfla gdp p h i n ly giai tai sao My vfin duy tri quan he budn ban vdi Nhfit trong khi quan he an ninh-quan sfl gifla hai nfldc ngfiy cfing cfing

t h i n g dd lfi hieu lflc cua Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hfing hai My-Nhfit ky thang

2-1911 Sau sfl kign Man Chau, Ngoai trfldng Stimson da phan dd'i dd nghj cua mdt sd nghj si My ve cfi'm vfin vu khf ddi

42 Rghito curu L}ch sit s6 5.2010

vdi Nhfit, ddng thdi khdng tan thfinh ldi

kdu ggi t i y chay hfing hoa Nhfit cfla cdng

chflng My vdi ly do vi pham nguyen tfic cd

hdi ddng deu vd thfldng mai trong Higp

fldc ky nfim 1911 Thfim chi Stimson cdn

ggi mdt ngfldi trong so' hg lfi "ke gia ddi

dang nguyen rua" Herbert Feis (cd vfi'n

kinh te cua Bd Ngoai giao), mdt sd quan

chfle Bd Thfldng mai vfi Tfii ehfnh eung

cho r i n g viec ap dyng cac bien phap trflng

phat quye't liet dfldi bfi't k^ hinh thflc nfio

lfi khdng phfl hgp vfi khdng hgp phap, trfl

khi Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hfing hai bj

xda bd

Kg't qua lfi, trong nhflng nfim

1931-1939, mac dfl trong ehfnh gidi My ludn

diin ra cude tranh lufin xung quanh vfi'n

dd My cd ngn ap dyng bign phap trflng

phat kinh td vdi Nhfit hay khdng, quan hg

thfldng mai song phfldng My - Nhfit Ban

vfin tiep tyc dfldc duy tri, thfim chi gia

tfing trong nhieu nfim Song, quan hg nfiy

cd nhflng tfic ddng khdng gidng nhau ddi

vdi mdi nfldc

Ve phfa My, vi bong lfi mfit hfing xufi't

k h i u quan trgng nhfi't sang Nhfit ddng

thdi sfl phat trien ngfinh trdng bdng vfi sd

che bdng cung phy thudc vfio xufi't k h i u

hdn bfi't cfl ngfinh nfio khac, ngn viec

Nhfit (vfi mdt sd nfldc khac) giam nhfip

k h i u mfit hfing nfiy dfi khidn boat ddng

xufi't k h i u bdng eua My rdi vfio tinh

trang suy thofii trong nhidu nfim Sfl

dinh dd'n trong xufi't k h i u dfin ddn tinh

trang dfl thfla bdng d My Vfio ngfiy

1-8-1938, khi vy bdng mdi bfit d i u My dy

thfla khoang tfl 12 den 13 tridu kien

bdng R5 rfing lfi, sy suy giam xufi't k h i u

bdng da gay khd khfin ldn cho vide quay

vdng vd'n phye vy d i y manh san xufi't

trong nhflng vy mfla tiep theo Tydng tfl

nhfl vfiy, sfl suy giam gia trj xufi't k h i u

go cung anh hfldng tdi ngfinh cdng nghigp tfldng flng eua My Thdng thfldng, p h i n ldn go xufi't k h i u dfldc chuydn chd tdi Viin Ddng dd phue vu ngfinh cdng nghigp dfldng sfit vfi xay dflng, song vfio nfim

1937 (nhfi't lfi sau thang 7-1937), vige vfin chuydn go ddn Viin Ddng (dfic bi$t lfi khu vyc chien sfl) giam dfing ke tfl 86,35 trigu

•m^ (nfim 1936) xudng cdn 53,02 trigu m^ trong tdng san Ifldng khoang 2 ti m^/moi nfim cua ngfinh cdng nghigp go vflng bd bien phfa Tay nfldc My Quy I nfim 1938, con sd nfiy giam xudng chi edn khoang 5,12 trieu m^ ca nfim 1938 lfi 20,6 trigu m^ Sy giam sut nfiy lfi mdt trong nhflng nhan to' gay nen tinh trang mfi't can ddi trong ngfinh edng nghigp go eua My Nhflng, khac vdi anh hfldng ddi vdi ngfinh bdng cua My, tae ddng cfla Nhfit Ban tdi ngfinh cdng nghigp go cfla My khdng ro ndt b i n g vi mfic dfl ft nhfi't 1/2 Ifldng gd nhfip k h i u vfio Nhfit den tfl My nhflng so vdi cfic nfldc khac Nhfit chfla bao gid lfi nfldc tigu thy gd ehfnh eua My

Trong khi dd, sdt, thep, ddu mo lfi

nhflng mat hfing quan trgng vfi tfing nhanh nhfi't trong tdng gia trj xufi't khfiu

"mdi' cfla My sang Nhfit Nhflng xdt ve mfit con sd, sfl gia tfing nfiy anh hfldng khdng ldn tdi thi trfldng tidu thy nhflng san p h i m dd cfla My cung nhfl ddi vdi cfic ngfinh cdng nghigp nfiy d My Ly do lfi tuy Iflgng sfit thdp xufi't k h i u sang Nhfit chiem ti trgng ldn nhfi't so vdi cfic qudc gia khac nhflng so vdi tdng Iflgng tieu thy sfit thdp My dd v i n lfi con sd rfi't nhd Vf

dy nhfl nfim 1937, Iflgng thdp xufi't k h i u sang Nhfit ehi b i n g khoang 3% tdng Ifldng thdp tidu thy cua My Lygng d i u

md eua My xufi't sang Nhfit vfi Man Chau

Ly nfim 1937 cung chi chiem khoang 1/5 tdng lygng d i u xufi't k h i u cfla My Dieu

Quan he hinh tg my-Rhat Bin 43

dd eho thfi'y, sy gia tfing gia trj xufi't k h i u

sfit, thdp, cao su, d i u md vfi may mdc eua

My sang Nhfit trong nhflng nfim trfldc

chien tranh tac ddng khdng ldn tdi boat

ddng cfla cae ngfinh edng nghigp tfldng

flng d My Ndi each khfic, nhu clu ngfiy

cfing tfing ve nguyen vfit lieu dflng trong

eae ngfinh edng nghigp phye vy ehien

tranh cua Nhfit Ban khdng thflc d i y sfl

bflng nd san xufi't cdng nghiep chien

tranh d My

Trong khi dd, vdi Nhfit Ban - vd'n ludn

gfip nhflng khd khfin cd hflu ve nguydn

lieu cho sfl phat trien cdng nghigp, sy gia

tfing gia tri nhfip k h i u nhflng nguygn vfit

lieu ndi tren ro rfing ddng vai trd vd cflng

quan trgng trong vide md rdng cae ngfinh

edng nghigp nfing thugc the hg thfl hai

nhfl thdp, didn may, d i u md, may mdc ndi

chung Nfim 1938, Nhfit nhfip cua My trdn

1.000.000 tfi'n sfit phe ligu, chidm tdi

74,1% Iflgng sfit nhfip k h i u cua Nhfit Vi

vfiy, le tfi't nhidn neu My ngflng xufi't k h i u

sfit phe lieu, san Iflgng thdp cfla Nhfit se

giam tfldng flng khoang trdn 1.000.000

tfi'n vfi kdo theo dd lfi cac tac ddng tidu cflc

dd'i vdi ca hai linh vyc quan sy vfi dan sfl

Tfldng tfl nhfl vfiy, nfim 1938, My lfi nfldc

xufi't k h i u may mdc hfing d i u sang Nhfit

Ban, vdi ti Id trgn 60% Cd mgt thye td lfi

sd Ifldng may mdc do Nhfit san xufi't tfing

nhanh chdng nhflng vfin khdng dap flng

du ydu elu cho vige tid'n hfinh cugc chien

tranh tai Trung Qud'c vfi chay dua vu

trang ndi ehung Vi vfiy, Nhfit Ban cflng

ngfiy cfing phy thudc vfio My ve ngudn

eung cfi'p mfiy mdc Trong khi dd, ddng dd

vd'n lfi mdt trong nhflng san phim mfi

Nhfit khdng nhflng san xufi't dap flng du

nhu clu trong nfldc mfi cdn xufi't k h i u thi

tfl gifla nfim 1939 tinh hinh nfiy dfi chfi'm

dflt Nhu clu sfl dyng ddng dd de lfim vd

dan, thiet bj dien tfl vfi md rgng eac ngfinh

cdng nghiep nfing dfit ra ydu elu nhfip

k h i u ddng_ vdi so' Iflgng ldn Nfim 1939, Nhfit san xufi't dfldc khoang 90.000 tfi'n, nhfip k h i u g i n 105.000 tfi'n trong dd 93% lfi tfl My

He qua lfi, trong khi ngfinh cdng nghigp det cfla Nhfit Ban giam d i n sfl phy thudc vfio My vdi tfl each ngudn cung cfi'p nguygn lieu thd chu ydu thi cac ngfinh cdng nghigp quan sfl vfi ban quan sfl eua Nhfit ngly cfing phu thudc vfio My vi day

la nfldc xufi't k h i u nhieu nhfi't hofic lfi mdt trong nhflng nfldc xufi't k h i u nhieu nhfi't eae loai nguyen ligu thd vfi may mdc cho Nhfit Ban Vi vfiy, mdt lenh cfi'm xufi't khfiu cac mat hfing nfiy tfl phfa My cung ddng nghia vdi vige nhieu ngfinh edng nghigp quan trgng cfla Nhfit Ban bj dinh trg Sy phy thudc cfla Nhfit dd'i vdi d i u

md cua My thfim chf cdn nfing ne hdn Nhin ehung My eung cfi'p tdi 80% nhu clu d i u md cfla Nhfit, trong dd mdt sd' san p h i m dfic biet nhfl xfing lfi tren 90% Dieu nfiy cung gdp p h i n giai thich tai sao Nhfit Ban cd' gfing khdng d i y tinh trang xung dot den mflc bflng nd chidn tranh gifla hai nfldc ddng thdi tfch eye diy manh edng eudc Bfic tien vfio lyc dja Trung Hoa vfi Nam tien xudng khu vyc Ddng Nam A

Tuy nhidn, hfinh dgng theo hydng thfl hai cfla Nhfit Ban khien xung dot quyen lgi gifla Nhfit vfi My ngfiy cfing gia tfing Thfing 7-1939, Ngoai trfldng My Hull thdng bao vdi Dai sfl Nhfit d Washington Hironouchi ve xofi bd Hi$p fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hfing hai ky nfim 1911 vfi gia ban

6 thang ke tfl ngfiy thdng bao Thang

1-1940, Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hfing hai gifla My vfi Nhfit Ban chfnh thflc bj xoa

bd Hfinh ddng nfiy da md dfldng ve mfit phap ly cho vide ban hfinh vfi thflc hien