Va'n de chu yeu la vUdt qua dUde van phong va phUdng phap luan ddi dau trong sd lieu hge nham giai phdng khdi cac khudn sao giao dieu cu ky, cung ehung sdc dung lai lich sd quan he [r]
Trang 1MOT SO DANH GIA CUA Glth SlT HOC
THE GlOri VE "CHIEN TRANH LANH"
NGUYfiN HONG VAN*
Thuat ngQ "Chien tranh lanh" (1)
dUde gidi bao chi phUdng Tay sd
dung tQ nam 1947 nham dien ta bdi canh
qu6'e te cQe ky cang thang va cugc d6l dau
cam go giQa chu nghia tQ ban va ehu nghia
xa hgi, dac biet la giQa My va Lien Xd trong
giai doan tQ khoang giQa nhQng nam 40
den cudi nhQng nam 80 - d i u 90 eua the ky
XX
Mae du "Chien tranh lanh" da lui vao dl
vang dQdc 20 nam, cac hge gia qud'c te van
khdng ngQng nghien cdu va t r a n h luan ve
cude chie'n tranh dac biet nay Trong khudn
khd bai viet dudi day, ehung tdi chi de cap
den tinh hinh nghien cdu ve "Chien tranh
lanh" eung nhQng va'n de lien quan de'n
"chie'n tranh lanh" dang cdn gay tranh cai
trong gidi sd hge Lien X6/Nga va cae nude
phUdng Tay
L THirC TRANG NGHIEN CLfU VE
"CHIEN TRANH LANH' 6 PHtfONG
TAY VA LIEN x 6 / N G A
Lich sil "Chien tranh lanh" d phQdng
Tay cung nhu d Lien Xd, trUde day p h i n ldn
deu dUdc phae hga dUa tren cac tU lieu ciia
phUdng Tay Viec tiep can trQc tiep vdi cae
trung tam lUu trQ My va phQdng Tay cho
phep ngQdi ta viet ra hang ehuc cdng trinh
ve ehinh saeh cua cac nUdc phUdng Tay, ve
su t h a n h lap NATO, ve qua trinh thdng qua cae quyet saeh ddi ngoai Ta't ca cac van de lien quan de'n Lien Xd va cac nUdc Dong Au, ehu ye'u dUde phan tich gian tie'p thdng qua cac tU lieu tQ cac trung tam lUu trQ cua cac nQde phUdng Tay (2)
Cae ngudn tQ lieu tdi mat dQdc cdng bd' tai eae trung tam iQu trQ cua phUdng Tay tiet lg nhQng muc dich chu ye'u cua My va cae ddng minh phQdng Tay trong thdi ky
"Chie'n t r a n h lanh": 1 tieu diet chii nghla cgng san, ehuyen hda chu nghia xa hgi the gidi thanh ehu nghia tU ban; 2 pha hoai va chia nhd Lien Xd t h a n h nhieu qud'c gia vQa
va nhd, phu thuge vao phUdng Tay; 3 tuyen truyen va phd bie'n tren khap the gidi hinh
m i u xa hgi eiia phUdng Tay Muc tieu danh bai va chia nhd Lien Xd dUdc trinh bay trong hang loat quye't dinh va dao luat ciia Nghi vien Hoa Ky, cac chi thi va ke hoach eua NATO (3)
Ne'u nhu trUde day, ngudn tU lieu chu ye'u diJa vao cac sU kien lien quan den cac qud'c gia Tay Au va My thi ngay nay trung tam cua sQ ehu y lai ddn vao phia Nga Viec
md cda cae trung tam luu trQ Lien X6/Nga lam day len sU quan tam ciia cae hge gia va thue day viec nghien cQu sau hdn ve cuoc
"Chien tranh lanh" Nhieu cdng trinh va ban thao xua't hien dUa tren cac tU lieu
' TS Vien Sd hoc
Trang 2BTot sd danh gia ciia giai sii hoc 61 dUde cdng bd' cua eae trung tam Luu trQ
Trung Qdng Dang Cdng san Lien X6, Bg
Ngoai giao, Luu trQ Quo'c gia Lien bang
Nga va nhieu trung tam luu trQ khac
Sau khi Lien bang X6 viet tan ra, tai Nga
da xuat ban mgt s6'c6ng trinh vie't ve hch sQ
"Chien tranh lanh" (4) Da cdng bd'eae cud'n
hdi ky eua cac nha ngoai giao Lien X6 (5)
Qua trinh ket thue "Chie'n tranh lanh" dQdc
mieu ta trong cac cu6'n saeh cua M X
Gorbachev va cac cgng sU eua dng (6) Dae
biet hdn, tai My chd khdng phai d Nga da
cdng bd' eae cdng trinh nghien cdu ve "chien
tranh lanh" eua eae hge gia ngUdi Nga (7)
Trong sud't may thap nien dien ra "chie'n
tranh lanh", giQa phUdng Tay va phUdng
Ddng kh6ng ngQng tranh cai ve cac van de:
"chie'n tranh lanh" dien ra khi nao va nhu
the nao; ai la ngUdi khdi mao ra eugc chien
tranh dd va nUde nao (hoae ai) phai chiu
traeh nhiem ve nhQng hau qua eua nd?
"Chie'n tranh lanh" da trd thanh qua khU,
song eae cude tranh luan van edn tiep dien
Mgt thdi gian dai, cac nhd sd hge Xd viet
di theo quan diem "chinh thd'ng" va len an
mgt each tuyet doi ngQdi My va eae ddng
minh phUdng Tay cua hg trcng viec gay ra
cugc "Chie'n tranh lanh", g i n lien dieu nay
vdi ehu nghla ba quyen truyen thd'ng cua
nude My Trong cac an p h i m tra cdu bach
khoa thudng nhan manh mUu dd cua My
dung "Chie'n tranh lanh" de tao ra nhQng
dieu kien ba't ldi eho mdi trudng ddi ngoai
cua Lien Xd; khdi day sU sd hai trUde nguy
cd chie'n tranh mdi, nhat la chie'n tranh hat
nhan; gay khd khan va can trd sU phat
trien eua Lien Xd b i n g viec ldi keo nUdc
nay vao cugc chay dua vu trang qua sdc
minh; ngan ehan tie'n trinh each mang the
gidi; nhin nhan lai cac ke't qua cua Chie'n
tranh the gidi thd Hai; thie't lap sQ thd'ng
tri cua My tren the gidi (8)
Ve va'n de he tQ tudng cua "Chien tranh lanh"; cac nhd sd bgc Xd vie't thudng vie't ve chu nghla chd'ng Cdng san nhu mdt ddng lUe eua toan bg qua trinh hinh thanh chinh saeh cua My Ve p h i n minh, sU lieu bgc My vie't ve tU tudng de che cua Stalin, ve chu nghla banh trudng va cac ao tUdng each mang cua lanh tu Lien Xd Vao thap nien
90, cac nha sd hge bat dau ddi chd cho nhau; tai Lien Xd, trong bdi canh phe phan, chi trich chu nghla Stalin, ngUdi ta bat d i u phan ti'ch, md xe cac quye't dinh cua Stalin sau Chie'n tranh the gidi thU Hai, cdn cac nha sd hge va ehinh tri hge My thi edng kich cae hge thuyet va ly luan tU tudng My Trong thdi ky hda diu (nhQng nam 70 the' ky XX), trdng sQ lieu hoc Xd vie't xua't hien nhQng cau chQ mem mong hdn, trong
dd ed de cap den nhQng cd hgi bi bd qua tQ
ea hai phia
Hien nay, p h i n ldn cac hge gia Nga da khdng cdn nhin nhan "chie'n tranh lanh" tren quan diem gido dieu va chiu anh hudng cua he tU tudng nhU trUde ddy, tQ bd luan diem coi My la thu pham duy nhat trong viec gay ra "Chie'n tranh lanh" Mdt sd' nha nghien cdu tien hanh phan tich, md
xe nhQng sai lim va cd hdi bi bd Id cua phia Lien Xd, trong dd phai ke den cud'n saeh
cua N V Zagladin - Lich sd chie'n cong vd
that bgi cua ngogi giao Xd viet (Sar^aaHH H
B McmopuM ycnexoe u neydauu coaemcKOU
dim.io.\tamim -M.; 1990 - 232 c) Day la cdng
trinh nghien cdu ve lich sd - ly luan cac van de cd ban trong boat ddng ddi ngoai cua Dang Cgng san Lien X6 va Nha nUde Xd vie't trong nhQng giai doan mang tinh bQde ngoat eua da't nQde
Viec phan tich cac tQ lieu sd hge trong dieu kien lich sd mdi (cai td d Lien Xd, cac bien dgng sau sic d Ddng Au va thQe thi "tQ duy mdi" trong cac van de qud'c te) cho phep
Trang 362 Rghien cihi Lich sit s6' 11.2009
cac hge gia van dung cai nhin mdi ddi vdi sd
lieu hge thdi ky "Chie'n tranh lanh" SQ khac
biet giQa sd lieu hoc Lien Xd va phUdng Tay
trUde het g i n vdi khdi lUdng cac cdng trinh
nghien cQu Theo nha sd hge Trubarian A
0 , sQ khae biet cdn tdn tai d chd; sd lieu hge
Xd vie't eho tdi nhiing nam 90 the ky XX
p h i n ldn mang tinh "mdndnit" (ddn nha't),
"thd'ng nha't" trong cac quan diem, bgc
thuyet va sQ danh gia (9)
Cae nha sd bgc Nga ed dieu kien nghien
cdu mgt linh vQc quan trgng khae thuge
thdi ky "chien tranh lanh" - dd la ddi tQ cua
cac lanh tu Xd viet, trinh do hge van, phong
each sd'ng cung nhU cae mdi quan he eua
hg Mdt va'n de ly thu khac la nghien cdu
vai trd cua cac Tong BI thU Ban Chap hanh
Trung Udng Dang Cdng san Lien Xd trong
qua trinh thdng qua cae quye't dinh cua hg
(dac biet la quye't dinh dua quan vao Tiep
Khac va Afganixtan)
Thdi gian g i n day, cac nha sd hge tap
trung sU chu y vao viec nghien cdu eae
nhan td'ehau A, chau Phi va chau My trong
"Chien tranh lanh" Cd sQ khdi sic trong
nghien cdu cugc chien tranh Trieu Tien Da
cdng bd' nhieu tQ lieu, trong dd cd cae tU
lieu eua eae trung tam iQu trQ Nga Tai My
da cdng bd' cac bien ban nhieu cugc hdi dam
cua Stalin vdi Kim Nhat Thanh va Mao
Traeh Ddng
Mdt sd' nha sQ hge danh sQ chu y eho
cugc chie'n tranh Viet Nam Cd the ke den
cud'n saeh ehuyen khao cua nha sd hge Lien
Xd I Gaiduk xua't ban d My nhan de The
Soviet Union and Vietnam War (Chicago,
1996) va cdng trinh cua tac gia tre ngQdi
Thuy Dien M Olsen vdi tUa de Solidarity
and National Revolution and the
Vietnamese Communists, 1954-1960 (Osld,
1996)
Nam 2005, cac bgc gia Nga eho ra mat hai cud'n saeh ehuyen khao ve de tai "chien tranh lanh" tren cd sd cac ngudn tQ lieu mdi
dUde edng bd' Dd la cud'n Kopen e ozne eoHnbi
("Trieu Tien trong khdi Ida chien tranh")
vdi mdt each nhin mdi ve cugc chien tranh b
Trieu Tien (1950-1953) cua cac tac gia Xergey Lavrenov (Ceprefi JlaBpeHoe) va Vitaly Bogdanov (BnTajmii BorflaHOs) Cud'n
thd hai mang tUa de CoeemcKuii Coios e
jioKcuibHbix eouHOX u KOHjiuKmox (Lien Xd trong
cac cugc chien t r a n h va xung dot khu vUe) cua I M Popov (H M IlonoB) va Xergey Lavrenov (Ceprefi JlaepeHOB) Cac tac gia di sau nghien cdu t a t ea cac cugc khung hoang xay ra thdi h a u chien d chau Au, chau A, chau Phi va My La tinh
Nam 2006 xua't hien edng trinh cua
Tudng D T lazov (JX T .Sfaoe) (10) nhan de
KapudcKuu Kpusuc: copoK nem cnycmn (Cugc
khung hoang Caribe; 40 nam nhin lai) Tac gia la n h a n ehdng sd'ng cua sQ kien tren nen cud'n saeh thQe sQ gay dUde sQ ehu y ddi vdi dgc gia
Ngay nay nhin ve qua khd va danh gia ngudn gd'e cung nhQ ke't thdc cua "Chie'n tranh lanh", cd the di den ke't luan la: ngay trong nen tang chinh saeh cua ca hai khdi
da tiem an tU tudng va cac bien phap ddi dau Tinh trang tUdng tU d i i n ra ca trong
sU lieu hge eua hai nUde Cae nha sd hge Lien Xd/Nga va My ngay cang tim kie'm nhQng phUdng hudng mdi cho viec nghien cdu lich sii "Chie'n t r a n h lanh" Va'n de chu yeu la vUdt qua dUde van phong va phUdng phap luan ddi dau trong sd lieu hge nham giai phdng khdi cac khudn sao giao dieu cu
ky, cung ehung sdc dung lai lich sd quan he qud'c te thdi ky sau chien tranh, tim ra nhQng nguyen n h a n va h a n h dgng cud'n the gidi vao tinh trang "Chie'n t r a n h lanh"
Trang 4niot 50 danh gia ciia gidi sii^ hoc 63
Viec nghien cQu ve "Chie'n tranh lanh"
van dang tiep dien va cdn gay nhieu bat
ngd vdi nhQng tU lieu bi mat dang d i n d i n
dUde edng bd' va lich sd cude "Chie'n tranh
lanh" van cdn nhieu bi an c i n dUde khai
thac, nghien cdu
II DANH GIA CUA GI61 SIJ" HOC VE
MOT SO VAN DE CON GAY TRANH
CAI XUNG QUANH CUOC "CHIEN
TRANH LANH'
1 Ve mdc khai ddu cua "Chien tranh
lanh" ton tgi nhieu y kie'n khdc nhau
Tai phUdng Tay phd bien rdng rai quan
diem cho r i n g ehinh cac boat ddng cua Lien
Xd nam 1945 n h i m "Xd vie't hda" eae eae
qud'c gia Ddng Au da dat cd sd eho sU md
diu cua "chien tranh lanh", dUa tren eae
bing ehdng nhU: sU cd mat cua quan ddi Xd
viet tai cac nUdc nay cdng them cac am
mUu "pha hoai" cac ehe do dan ehu d eae
nude Tay Au vdi sQ trd giup cua cac Dang
Cdng san cac nUde sd tai Hanh dgng eua
My va cac cUdng qud'c phUdng Tay khae sau
chien tranh la bat huge, la sU tra dua n h i m
muc dich chd'ng lai cac dgng thai tren day
Tieu bieu cho quan diem nay la George
F Kennan (11) - mdt nha ngoai giao ndi
tieng cua My, Dai sQ My tai Lien Xd tQ
1954 de'n 1963, nha phan tich, nha Xd vie't
hoc, tac gia cua nhieu cdng trinh ve chinh
saeh ddi ngoai va Hch sd ngoai giao Hoa Ky,
trong dd phai ke de'n cud'n Memoirs
1925-1950 (Boston and Toronto; Little, Brown
and Company, 1967) Nam 2002, cud'n hdi
ky nay dudc xua't ban bing tieng Nga vdi
tUa de JIunnoMamim Bmopoii Mupoeou eoimbi
BJiajOMu ciMepuKaHCKozo nocjia e CCCP
MoKopdoica KemiaHa/ilep c aHrn Jl.A
HropeecKoro, VD.Jl Hynpoea - M.: 3A0
UeHxpnojiHrpae}), 2002 - 479 c (Ngoai giao thdi
Chie'n tranh the gidi thd Hai dudi con m i t
eua Dai sd Hoa Ky tai Lien Xd G Kennan) (12)
Phan bac lai y kie'n tren, mdt hge gia Nga, cUu quan chdc eao ca'p cua Bd Ngoai giao Lien Xd, G M Kornienco (13) cho ring: ne'u xua't phat tQ quan diem phUdng Tay cho r i n g "Chien tranh lanh" bat diu tU viec Lien Xd sU dung sU cd mat cua eae lUe lUdng vu trang Xd viet tai eae qud'c gia Ddng Au n h i m 'Xd vie't hda" cae nUde nay, thi cd nghla r i n g chinh cae qud'c gia phUdng Tay cd ldi trcng viec cho phep quan ddi Xd viet hien dien d day NhUng, theo dng, phia Lien Xd eung sai lim trong viec tie'n xa hdn nhQng gi ma cae nQde phUdng Tay cho phep trong mdt mdc do tUdng ddi va trong cac bien phap n h i m tuyen truyen anh hudng cua Lien Xd d khu vUc Ddng Au (14)
Ve traeh nhiem de xay ra "Chie'n tranh lanh", G M Kornienco nhan dinh ring;
"Ne'u nhu xuat phdt tU quan diem tren cUa gidi sd hoc phUdng Tdy, theo cdch nhin nhdn khach quan, thi trdch nhiem cua cdc nUdc phUcfng Tdy trong viec de xdy ra
"chie'n tranh lanh", ne'u khdng Id todn bg thi ciing phdi chiu trdch nhiem mgt nda" (15)
Hang loat cac nha nghien cdu phUdng Tay cho r i n g phat sung d i u tien md man
"Chien tranh lanh" chinh la viec My nem thd nghiem cac qua bom nguyen tU chd'ng Nhat Ban nhu mdt hanh ddng khdng cin thie't ve mat quan sU ma chi mudn ehdng td cho phia Xd vie't tha'y sdc manh quan sU ap dao eua minh va nhu mdt sU tuyen bd' ve vai trd quye't dinh eua My tren the gidi sau Chien tranh the gidi thd Hai
Mgt trong sd dd, tae gia ngUdi Anh Peter
Calvoeoressi (tac gia hai tap saeh World
Politics 1945-2000, dUdc dich sang tieng
Nga la Mupoeaa no.iumuKO 1945-2000 a 2-x
KHurax M 2003 (Chinh tri t h e gidi
Trang 51945-64 Rghien ciiru Ljch sii', so 11.2009
2000) khang dinh; "Thdng 8-1945, ngUdi
My nem hai qud bom nguyen td xudng
Hirdsima vd Nagasaki budc Nhdt Bdn
nhanh ehdng ddu hdng vd nhU vay chien
thdng cua ngUdi My da lam cho vai trd vd
vi tri cua nUdc Nga trong viec tham gia vdo
tien trinh binh dn khu viic Vien Ddng sau
chie'n tranh chi mang tinh chdt tUdng
trUng" (16)
P Blekett - mdt ehuyen gia ndi tieng
cua Anh ve nang lUdng nguyen td vie't nam
1949; "Viec nem hai qud bom nguyen tii
khdng chi Id sii kien cud'i ciing ciia Chie'n
tranh the gidi thd Hai md cdn Id chie'n dich
ldn ddu tien cHa cugc "Chie'n tranh lanh" ve
ngogi giao vdi nUdcNga" (17)
Tuy nhien, p h i n ddng cae nha nghien
cdu tren the gidi cho r i n g sU b i t d i u cua
cude chie'n tranh dac biet nay can ap dung
cho thdi gian sau khi ket thuc Chien tranh
the gidi thd Hai, ma md'c md man la bai
phat bieu eua Churchid (18) tai Dai hge
Westminster d Fulton, Missouri (My) ngay
5-3-1946 Trong bai phat bieu "Nguon tie'p
sdc cho Hda binh", Churchill de cap den cai
ggi la "hiem hga" cua chu nghia cdng san b
chau Au, trudc bet la tQ Lien Xd Bai phat
bieu cd doan vie't; "Td Szczecin d Baltic cho
den Trieste d Adriatic mgt "bdc mdn sdt" da
chgy dgc theo Luc dia Sau bdc mdn dd Id
tdt cd nhdng thu dd cda nhdng qud'c gia cd
0 Trung vd Ddng Au Warszawa, Berlin,
Praha, Wien, Budapest, Beograd, Bucharest
vd Sofia; td't cd nhiing thdnh phd'ndi tieng
ndy ciing ddn cU sdng quanh do dang ndm
trong thd md tdi phdi ggi la qud cdu Lien
Xd, vd tdt cd, bdng cdch ndy hay cdch khdc,
deu phdi le thudc khdng chi vdo dnh hudng
cda Lien Xd md cdn vdo sU dieu khien chat
che vd cd khi ngdy cdng tdng len td
Moskva" (19)
Churchill keu ggi cac nUdc de qud'c tie'n hanh eugc chie'n t r a n h tren cae Hnh vUe kinh te, chinh tri, quan sif chd'ng lai "hiem hga cgng san" tQ Lien Xd va cac nUdc dan chu Ddng Au Bai p h a t bieu eua Churchill dUde coi la tin hieu md dau ciia cugc "chie'n tranh lanh" diin ra giQa 2 khdi xa hgi chu nghia va tU ban ehu nghia tren the gidi trong hdn 4 thap nien (1946-1989) Cung tQ day, hinh anh "BQc man sat" dQdc sd dung nhQ mgt bieu tUdng chi sQ each biet giQa he
tu tQdng xa hgi chii nghia va tQ ban chu nghia Cac nha sd hoc Lien Xd trUde day thudng nghieng ve quan diem nay va huge tgi My va cac nUdc phUdng Tay la ngUdi cham ngdi nd cho "Chien t r a n h lanh"
2 Ve nguon gdc hodc nguyen nhdn ddn tdi "Chie'n tranh lanh"
Gidi nghien cQu cac nUdc khdng ngifng tranh luan ve va'n de ngudn gd'e hay nguyen nhan d i n den "Chien t r a n h lanh" Cho tdi nam 1991, cae edng trinh viet ve "Chien tranh lanh" h i u nhu deu dUa tren cac ngudn
tu lieu cua My, trong nhQng nam cudi la eua Anh va cae nude phUdng Tay Tu lieu cua phUdng Tay ve nguyen n h a n d i n de'n "Chien tranh lanh" theo truyen thd'ng, deu hudng
sU chu y dac biet den y nghia ca nhan cua Stalin va he thd'ng Nha nUde do dng tao dung len (George F Kennan, John Lewis Gaddis, Taubman William )
Mdt so' hge gia phUdng Tay nhan dinh rang; sau Chie'n tranh the gidi thd Hai, phin ddng ngUdi My cho rang Lien Xd dang ed ging dua chau Au va ca the gidi vao quy dao cua ehu nghia edng san va Lien Xd ed du kha nang lam dUde viec do NgUde lai, ve phan minh, Lien Xd cQng cho rang the gidi phUdng Tay vdi nhQng tu tudng va gia tri cua xa hgi
tu ban ehu nghia se coi Lien Xd la muc tieu eIn phai loai bd cQng nhu c i n ngan ehan anh hudng cua chii nghia cgng san
Trang 6OTpt 50 d a n h gia ciia gioi sir h o c 65
Theo P e t e r Calvoeoressi, s a u chie'n
t r a n h cac e u d n g qud'c phUdng T a y tiem a n
sU t h i e u t i n t u d n g va t h u dich ddi vdi Lien
Xd cung n h u h e thd'ng c u n g h e tU tUdng cua
nude n a y , n h U n g My k h d n g d i n b ta'n edng
va eung k h d n g ehu d i n h thie't lap sQ thd'ng
tri cua m i n h d T r u n g va Ddng Au Mdi p h i a
deu vu t r a n g n h i m g i a n h chie'n t h i n g
trong chie'n t r a n h , n h u hg n g h i , do p h i a ben
kia gay n e n , n h U n g thUe r a k h d n g p h i a nao
quyet d i n h t i e n h a n h chien t r a n h (20)
J o h n Lewis G a d d i s (21), n h a sd hge My,
mgt e h u y e n gia ndi t i e n g ve lich sd "chie'n
t r a n h l a n h " cho r a n g ; ca p h i a My cung nhQ
phia Lien Xd deu k h d n g mud'n cd eugc
"Chien t r a n h lanh", cdn t r e n thQe t e t h i chi
ddn gian la Lien Xd va My deu q u a n t a m
den a n n i n h cua m i n h n h u n g " t h a m hga la
d chd hg d a t dUde m u c dieh eua m i n h trong
mdt t r a t t u ddn le t h a y ehe viec eung n h a u
h a n h ddng" (22) Ndi mdt each k h a c , theo
Gaddis, da d e n luc c i n k h e p lai cau hdi ve
ngudn gd'e cugc "Chie'n t r a n h l a n h " bdi vi
t a t ca c h u n g t a ddn gian la "khdng cd ldi de
trd t h a n h t h u p h a m "
Trong cud'n Now We Know: Rethinking
Cold War History N.Y., 1997, J L G a d d i s
nhieu l i n ndi ve t r a e h n h i e m cua Lien Xd
va My t r o n g viec gieo r a c va md rdng eugc
"Chien t r a n h lanh" Tuy vay, t r a ldi cau
hdi; ai p h a i chiu t r a e h n h i e m chinh eho
nhQng h a n h ddng t r e n t h i t a c gia k h d n g ehi
mdt l i n ndi t h i n g - dd la Lien Xd (23)
Cac n h a n g h i e n cdu N g a cd ly k h i n h a n
dinh r a n g : "Gid'ng nhU gidi lanh dgo Lien
Xd, chinh quyen My trong sud't thdi ky
"chie'n tranh lanh" coi vd hie nhU mdt cdng
cu chii ye'u de gidi quye't td't cd cdc van de
qud'c te TU dd phdt sinh ra nhiing van de
nguy hiem cho thd gidi di kem vdi cdc cugc
khung hodng vd ddi ddu nghiem trgng giUa
phUcfng Tdy vd phUctng Ddng trong thdi ky
"Chie'n tranh Ignh" (24)
Ca h a i p h i a (Lien Xd va My) t r o n g n h i e u
n a m t i e n h a n h viec tim kie'm "thu p h a m "
c u a cude ddi d a u s a u Chie'n t r a n h (the gidi
t h u H a i ) Cudi eung, t a i n h i e u cugc hdi
t h a o , t r a n h l u a n t r o n g gidi sQ hge My da
dQa r a k e t l u a n ve trdch nhiem ngang nhau
t r o n g eugc ddi d i u cua "Chien t r a n h lanh" nhQ la ke't q u a cua q u a n diem q u a khac
n g h i e t tQ ea h a i p h i a (25)
T r e n thQe te, n g a y s a u k h i chie'n t r a n h ket t h u c , cac cUdng qud'c lap tUc t h i h a n h
d u d n g ldi ddi d a u b a n g vu IQC, SU d u n g nd
t r o n g viec giai q u y e t cac v a n de s a u chien
t r a n h Vdi My va cae ddng m i n h eua hg, mdt t r o n g cac bien p h a p n e u t r e n la vien trd k i n h te va vu k h i n g u y e n tU; vdi Lien Xd
- q u a n ddi h u n g h a u d c h a u Au va v u n g Vien Ddng s a u khi chie'n t h a n g p h a t xit Ddc va q u a n p h i e t N h a t NgUdi My b i n g mgi each duy tri cdc che do d a n g tdn tai d Ddng Au, can trd eae bie'n ddi ve each m a n g
va xa hgi
P h i a Lien Xd eung mud'n duy tri va md rgng a n h h u d n g cua m i n h n h i m bao tdn va
p h a t t r i e n cac t h a n h q u a each m a n g Tien
de cua "Chie'n t r a n h l a n h " chUa dUng t r o n g cac m a u t h u a n giQa cae nQde t h a m gia khdi ddng m i n h chd'ng p h a t xit Cac m a u t h u a n
p h a t s i n h t h u d n g lien q u a n den t r a t tU t h e gidi s a u chien t r a n h
3 Vi bdn chdt cua "chien tranh lanh"
Cac n h a n g h i e n cQu, trUdc h e t la cac n h a
sQ bgc va cac n h a ngoai giao t d n g dUa r a nhQng y kie'n k h a c n h a u ve b a n c h a t cua
"Chien t r a n h lanh": day la chu n g h i a ddi
k h a n g , cugc x u n g dot cQc ky n g h i e m trgng,
h e thd'ng q u a n h e ddi d i u (thu dieh) giQa
h a i sieu cQdng k h d n g lien q u a n den da'u
t r a n h vu t r a n g ; ddi d i u giQa r a n h gidi hda
Trang 766 Rghien cmi Lich sJr so 11.2009
binh va chie'n tranh; tdng hdp cac cugc
khung hoang dat the gidi trQdc hiem hga
chie'n tranh hat nhan
Da so eae bgc gia tren the gidi nhan
dinh; "Chie'n tranh lanh" la cugc ddi dau
giQa cac nQde xa hgi ehu nghla ddng d i u la
Lien Xd va My cung cdc nQde ddng minh
cua minh
Mdt sd khae thi eho rang "Chie'n tranh
lanh" la mgt dQdng Idi ehinh tri ma Chinh
phu eae nQde phQdng Tay thi hanh trong
quan he vdi Lien Xd va cac ddng minh cua
hg - nhQng nQde di theo con dQdng phat
trien xa hdi chu nghia, dUde thUe thi ngay
sau khi Chie'n t r a n h the gidi thd Hai ket
thue
ThUe te da ehdng minh; "Chien tranh
lanh" la mdt hien tUdng mdi ve chat, khac
han vdi cae cugc chie'n tranh ed dien Dac
diem ndi bat cua "Chien tranh lanh" la sQ
bi mat (giau mat) eua cac chien dich khdng
dung vu lUc trong "Chie'n tranh lanh", bao
gdm: ehinh tri-ngoai giao, kinh te, cdng
nghe, tu tudng-tam ly, thdng tin, tinh bao
Vi du; trong nhQng nam 80 eua the ky XX,
chi rieng do cam van kinh te b i n g each ha
gia nang lUdng va nhien lieu, ngQng eung
cap theo hdp ddng cac nguyen vat lieu, may
mdc, ddng cda thi trUdng ddi vdi hang boa
Lien Xd , phUdng Tay da gay thiet hai cho
Lien Xd khoang 1,2 ty dd la My, cd nghia
thiet hai hdn 2 l i n so vdi tdn that eua Lien
Xd trong cugc chien tranh Ve qud'c
(1941-1945) (26)
Trong "Chie'n tranh lanh", phia My thdc
day chay dua vu trang, dac biet la trong
Hnh vifc hat nhan; thanh lap cac khdi quan
sU, he thd'ng cac can cd quan sU xung
quanh Lien Xd; tie'n hanh cdc mUu dd de
dga b i n g vu iQc; gay ra hdng loat cac cugc
xung dot quan sU va cac cude chie'n tranh
cue bd ma ddng sau nd cd sU tham gia cua
b l u he't cac ddi thu chinh
Lien Xd cung phai dd'c toan bg sdc lUc nham ehay dua vdi My tren cac Hnh vQc khac nhau (kinh te, quan sU ), giup dd va ung hg cae nUde, cac phong trao each mang
d cac chau luc n h a m duy tri anh hudng va ddi dau vdi My Ngudn tin tQ Nga thd'ng ke rang; trong thdi ky "Chie'n t r a n h lanh", hang thang Lien Xd phdng tQ 5-6 thie't hi bay vao vu tru, hang nam Lien Xd cho thd nghiem khoang 15-20 qua bom nguyen td
va bom khinh khi (bom H) De'n nam 1989, chi phi cho qud'c phdng cua Lien Xd chiem tdi 51,9% tdng san iQdng kinh te qud'c dan hoae 73,1% tdng thu nhap qud'c dan (27)
4 Viec xdc dinh mdc thai gian eua
"Chie'n t r a n h lanh" eung khd khan, phde tap hdn so vdi cac cugc chien tranh trQdc day Mgt so' nha nghien cdu danh ddng
"Chie'n t r a n h lanh" vdi cugc ddi d i u giQa hai he thd'ng xa hgi, b i t d i u tQ nam 1917
va ke't thue vao nam 1991 - cung vdi sQ tan
ra cua Lien bang Xd viet
NhQng ngQdi khac lai cho rang "Chien tranh lanh" md man ngay sau khi ke't thuc Chie'n t r a n h the gidi thd Hai va diem cudi cua nd la "sU t h a t bai eua chii nghia cgng san"
Nhin chung, tren the gidi phd bie'n cac quan diem cho rang:
1 Md'c khdi d i u cua "chie'n tranh lanh"
la mgt trong cac nam 1917, 1945, 1946,
1947, niia dau hoae nda sau thap nien 40
t h e k y X X ;
2 Md'c ke't thuc "Chien t r a n h lanh"
-1989, 1990, 1991, cudi thap nien 80 - d i u thap nien 90 the ky XX
Da sd' cac nha sii hoc va qud'c te hge tren the gidi ndi chung va d Nga ndi rieng deu
Trang 8Cffot 50 danh gia ciia gioi sCi hoc 67
nha't tri la'y nhQng nam giQa thap nien 40
the ky XX lam md'c md d i u chinh thUc va
lan sdng cac bien ddi chinh tri tai cac nQde
Ddng Au mua thu nam 1989 lam ranh gidi
giQa "Chien tranh lanh" va giai doan quan
he qud'c te hien thdi, ma dac trUng ndi bat
nhat la sU pha bd "bdc tUdng Berlin", khi
ma "nhdn ddn Lien Xd cdng nhU phdn ldn
cdc qud'c gia thudc "cdng ddng xd hdi chu
nghla" trUdc ddy dd td bd he thdng Nhd
niidc ddc ddng vd kehogch hda nen kinh te,
nghieng ve nen ddn chu thi trUdng tdc Id
bdo hieu sU chdm ddt ve cd bdn sU ddi ddu
cda cdc he thd'ng chinh tri-xd hgi ddi
khdng" (28)
Tdng hdp cae y kie'n eua da so' cac nha
nghien cdu tren the gidi, A Trerniaiev (29)
cd ly khi cho r i n g "cac md'c thdi gian cd y
nghla tUdng trUng nha't cho lich sU "Chie'n
tranh lanh" chinh la "Fulton" va "Malta",
1946-1989" (30)
5 Ve ket thUc cua "Chien tranh lanh"
Nam 1985, Ban lanh dao mdi cua Lien
Xd do M Gorbachev ddng d i u len nam
quyen Nha nUde Xd vie't de ra nhiem vu
dat dUdc budc ngoat khdi "Chie'n tranh
lanh", ehuyen td cang thang tren trQdng
qud'c te sang hoa diu va hdp tae Ngay
15-2-1989, Lien Xd da rut he't toan bd cac
quan nhan Xd vie't ra khdi lanh thd
Afghanistan va bat d i u rut quan khdi cae
nude ddng minh cua minh d Ddng Au
Thang 5-1989 khdi Warszawa keu ggi
NATO cung giai tan Thang 11-1989, bdc
tiidng Berlin dQdc khai thdng va sau dd
chinh thQe dQdc dd bd vao ngay 13-6-1990
Quan he Xd - My thQe sQ ehuyen tQ "ddi
dau" sang "ddi thoai" Ngay 2-12-1989,
trong eugc gap khdng chinh thdc giQa Tong
bi thu Gorbachev va Tdng thd'ng George H
W Bush tai Malta (Dia Trung Hai), hai ben
da chinh thQe tuyen bd' cha'm ddt cude
"Chie'n tranh lanh"
Tai Nga thQdng phd bie'n luan diem eho
r i n g "Chie'n tranh lanh" ke't thue khdng ed ngudi thang, ke thua Tuy vay, phUdng Tay dUa ra danh gid khae ban: hg thudng ndi va hanh ddng nhU minh la ngUdi chien thang duy nha't J L Gaddis cho rang Lien Xd da tha't bai, mac du sd hQu mdt sdc manh quan sQ hung hau Cd't loi eua van de nam trong kinh te, he tQ tQdng, dao ddc S Q khae biet mang tinh nguyen tic trong quan diem cua My va Lien Xd trong "Cliie'n tranh lanh", theo J L Gaddis the hien d chd My xuat phat tQ chu nghla dan chu hien thQe, cdn Lien Xd - chu nghla rdmantic quyen uy (ddc doan) (31)
Nhieu hge gia tren the gidi nha'n manh de'n sU ba't ngd cua viec ket thuc "Chien tranh lanh" Ngay den cac chinh khach phUdng Tay cung phai thUa nhan ring chie'n t h i n g de'n vdi hg qua ddi bat ngd va
hg khdng the tin rang da dat dUde dieu dd mdt each nhanh ehdng de'n nhu vay (32) Ngay 28-1-1992, tdng thdng My G.Jufk
tuyen bd'; "Nhd Trdi, nUdc My dd chien
thdng trong cugc "chie'n tranh lanh" Song
cdng bang hdn ca phai ke den danh gia cua
George F Kennan; "Khdng ai "chie'n thdng"
trong "Chie'n tranh Ignh" Ddy Id cugc ddi ddu chinh tri ddi lau vd ddt gid, do cd hai phia gdy ra bdi nhdng ddnh gid phi thiic te
vd cUdng dieu ve cdc dung y vd sdc mgnh ciia cdc lUc lugng ddi lap nhau" (33)
Thang 6-2009, trong cude hgp bao tai Quy tQ thien Moskva eua minh, cQu Tdng thd'ng Lien Xd Gorbachev da phe phan gay
g i t nhQng ngUdi cho rang phUdng Tay da
t h i n g trdng cugc "Chie'n tranh lanh", thang Lien Xd, thay vi xem xet sU ket thdc ddi dau giQa phQdng Tay va phQdng Ddng nhu
Trang 968 Rghien curu Lich sJr 50 11.2009
mdt quye't dinh ma hai ben eung dUa ra vi
ldi Ich chung (34)
Tuy nhien, mdt sd' ngUdi Nga cung cho
rang; phUdng Tay da chie'n t h i n g trong
cude "Chien tranh lanh", cdn Lien Xd thi tU
nguyen thua Gid day khi khdi Hiep Qde
Warszawa va Hgi ddng tUdng trd kinh te da
giai the, 'TDUC man s i t " bi gd bd va nUdc Ddc
da thd'ng nhat, sieu cQdng (Lien Xd) bi pha
buy va ehu nghla cgng san bi ca'm doan thi
nQde Nga trong the ky XXI cd the tin chae
r i n g khdng cd he tQ tudng nao, ma ehi ed
cae quyen ldi dia ehinh tri ngU tri trong tU
duy chinh tri eua phUdng Tay (35)
Hg cay dang n h a n ra mgt sU that - ke't
qua duy n h a t cua "Chien t r a n h lanh" "ed
the nhin tha'y b i n g mat thUdng" la Lien
bang Xd vie't tan ra, dieu ma trum phat xit
Hitler cung cd may quan sU hung manh
khdng the dat difdc khi ehinh phuc ca chau
Au vao nam 1941, each day dung 50 nam
Ket thue ky nguyen vi dai cua mgt "sieu
cudng" (36)
Van de ve sU ket thuc eua "Chie'n tranh
lanh" van cdn la dieu gay tranh cai Nhieu
ngUdi cho r i n g , "Chien tranh lanh" da hoan
toan ket thuc, khdng bao gid quay trd lai va
va'n de chinh hien nay la k h i c phuc den
cung nhung hau qua eua nd de lai Sd' khac
lai nhan dinh, r i n g "Chie'n tranh lanh" chUa
ke't thuc ma ehuyen sang hinh thai khac Cac chinh tri gia phUdng Tay edng nhan rang; chien t h i n g cua hg trude Lien Xd chi la nha't thdi chd chQa phai t h i n g Idi cudi eung
Hg khdng dam chic rang nQde Nga se khdng quay trd lai eon dQdng phat trien xa hdi chu nghia Ngoai ra, sU hien dien va cung cd cua nhdm eae qud'c gia xa hgi chu nghia cdn lai cung lam cho phQdng Tay bat an (37)
Tdm lai, den nay van chUa cd nhQng cau tra ldi chinh thdc va xac thifc eho cae eau hdi: tai sao xua't hien va "Chie'n tranh lanh" dien ra nhU the nao? Ai va d mdc do nao phai chiu traeh nhiem de xay ra "Chien tranh lanh"? Nd da ket thuc thUc sU hay van edn tie'p dien?
Du sao thi "Chien t r a n h lanh" van cdn la hien tUdng ehUa dUdc nghien cdu diy du Nhieu khia canh cua nd thuoc ve cae pham tru triet bgc, ehmh tri bgc, xa hdi hge, chinh tri, kinh te, tam ly, thdng tin hge va nhQng bg mdn khoa bgc xa hgi khac, trong
dd ed ly luan quan sQ Chi cd dQa tren cd sd nghien cdu tdng the cac bg mdn nay mdi cd the dQa ra mgt hge thuyet khoa hge hoan chinh ve "Chie'n t r a n h lanh" - tien de can ban de giai quye't nhQng va'n de cap thiet
n h i m bao dam an ninh va hda binh, vUdt qua cac eugc chie'n t r a n h "ndng" va "lanh" tren the gidi
CHU THJCH
(1) Cum tU "Chie'n tranh lanh" do Barueh
Benard Mannes (1870-1965) - tac gia eua ke hoach
nguyen td lUc ciia My d Lien Hdp Quo'c dat ra vdi y
nghia: "Chie'n tranh lanh" la cuoc "chie'n tranh
khong no sUng, khong do mau" nhUng 'luon luon d
tinh trang chie'n tranh" nham "ngan ehan" roi "tieu
diet" Lien X6 Barueh Benard Mannes la nha hoat
dong chinh tri va nha nu6e, ehuyen gia tai ehinh
co'van kinh te khong chinh thUc cua nhieu ddi tong tho'ng My, co vai tro quan trong trong deii song kinh te va ngoai giao My niia d^u the ky XX, tac
gia cuo'n My Own Story (1957)
(2) Vi du: Herring George Aid to Russia,
1941-1946: Strategy, Diplomacy, the Origins of the Cold War N.Y., 1973; Kennan Goerge F Russia and the West Under Lenin and Stalin Boston 1961'
Trang 10niot 50 danh gia ciia giai 51^ hoc 69
Larson T h o m a t B Soviet-American Rivalry N.Y.,
1978; Morris Benard S International
Communism and American Policy Atherton Press,
N.Y., 1966; T a u b m a n William StalinOs American
Policy From Entente to Detente to Cold War N.Y.,
1982; Tompkins Pauline American-Russian
Relations in the Far East N.Y., 1949
H.H.5lK0BJieB " H P y npoTHB CCCP" "Mojioflas
TBapflHa" MocKBa.1983;
(3) D u d e t h e h i e n t r o n g c a c cong t r i n h nhU:
"XoJioflHaa BOHna" HoBbie noflxo.ziLr, HOBtie AOKyMeHTbi
M., 1998; KHCCiiHWKep F JXannoMajiin M., 1997;
HjiiHHCKHii H 0 «Ky.nbType)) eoidHbi H «KyjibType» MHpa
M., 1999 HAp
(4) CM "Xojiofliiaq BOHHa", HoBtie noaxojbi, HOBBIC
flOKyMCHTbi M.: 1995; OHJIHTOB A M "Xojioana;i
BoilHa": ncTopnorpa({)HMecKne /iHCKyccHH Ha Sanaae M.:
1991; HySapbHH A O O npoHcxo)KAeHHn "XOHOHHOM
BoiiHbi" B HCTopnorpatliHH BocTOKa H Sanaaa // HoBaa H
HOBefimaa HCTopim 1991 Xs 3; CCMHH KD C , Py6aH H
C ynacTMe CCCP e KopefiCKoii BOrtiie // Bonpocbi
HCTopHH 1994 Wi! 11; CoBCTCKaa Bueuifoifl no^THTiiKa e
roAbi "xo.noAiioii BOHIIU" (1945-1985): HOBOC npoHTCHHe
n o a peA Jl H, HoKHHCKOro M.: 1995; CCCP n
"xo.noAiia>! BOHna", M.: 1995; CrapOAySoe B U
CynepAep)KaBb[ XX BCKa CxpaTcrHMecKoe
npoTHBoSopCTBO M 2 0 0 1 ; BevtriH JXIK., KoHApameB C ,
Mepc])!! H riocAe 6HTBbi - EepjTUH/ flep c aHPA Jl-M
2002 H Ap
(5) AxpoMecB C O., KopimeHKO P M r.na3aMH
Mapmajia H AHUAOMaxa KpnTiiHecKiiii Bsnma iia
BneiiiHK)io noAHTHKy CCCP AO H nocAe 1985 roAa M.:
1992; TpoMbiKo A A FlaMiiTHoe B 2 KH M : 1988;
KopHHCHKO r M "XoAOAuas BOHHa": cBHAexcAbCTBa ee
ynacTHiiKOB M.: 1994; KpioHKOB B A JInMHoe ACAO, M :
1996; XloSpbiHHH A H Cyry6o ACiBepirreAbHO M.: 1996
M Ap
(6) rop6aMeB M C )KH3Hb H pecjiopMbi B 2 KH M :
1995; MepimeB A C lllecxb ACT C FopSaHeBbiM Ho
AHeBiiHKOBHM 3anHC)iM M.: 1993; MepHaeB A C
FopGaMCB - Bym: Bcrpewa Ha Manbxe B 1989 r // HoBas ii
HOBefimasi iicropHJi 2001 N« 3 H Ap
(7) Zybok V., Plesakov C Inside the Kremlin'
Cold War: From Stalin to Khruschev Cambridge,
1996; Gaiduk I The Soviet Union and Vietnam
War Chicago, 1996
(8) Vi dp trong cac cuon saeh: CoBexcKHH 3HUHKAoneAH4ecKHH cAOBapb M., 1980 C 1469; XlHnAOMaxHMecKHfi CAOBapb M., 1986, T 3 C 537, CoBCTCKaii BOCHHaii 3HUHKA0neAiia M., 1980 T.8 C 385,,
(9) HySapbSH A, 0 FlpoHcxoiKAeHHe "XOAOAHOH BofiHbi" B HcxopHorpa(J)HH BocxoKa H 3anaAa HoBas H HOBeftniaH HcxopRS, 1991 X? 3 C, 63
(10) D.T lazov tUng la Bo trUcfng Bo Quoc phong cuol cung ciia Lien Xo Ong da kinh qua khoi lUa ciia cuoc chie'n t r a n h Ve quo'c vi dai (1941-1945), chi huy T r u n g doan 5 Cu Ba trong thdi gian xay ra cuoc k h u n g hoang Caribe, phuc vu he't minh
d ta't ca cae ehUe vu dUde giao pho
(11) George Kennan (sinh 1904) la nha ngoai giao My Nam 1952, dUde bo nhiem lam dai sU My tai Matxedva TUng dUde m e n h d a n h la "Kie'n true sU" eua "Chie'n t r a n h lanh", da tUng lam viee tai eae sU quan eiia My 6 Berlin, Vienna, P r a h a va Matxedva Dong thdi la ngUdi de xua't Ke hoach Marshall, trd cap eho eae nUde chau Au hang ty dola de hoi phue sau Tlie chie'n thU Hai Ong da
viet 17 cuo'n saeh, hai trong so'ehUng la Nga rdi bo
chien tranh (xua't ban n a m 1957) va Hoi ky:
1925-1950 da gianh giai Pulitzer George Kennan da
qua ddi ngay 17-3-2005, tai n h a rieng d Princeton, New Jersy, tho 101 tuoi
(12) Ngoai ra, George F K e n n a n eon eo eae cong t r m h khac vie't ve "Chie'n t r a n h lanh" va quan
he Xo - My nhU: Russia and the West Under Lenin
and Stalin Boston, 1961; Soviet-American Relations, 1917-1920 vol 1, Russia Leaves the War N.Y., 1967; Soviet-American Relations,
1917-1920 vol.2 The Decision to Intervene N Y., 1967; The Nuclear Delusion: Soviet-American Relation in the Atomic Age (1982)
(13), Kornienco G M (sinh n a m 1925) - Dai sU