- Dugc dinh hudng bdi thi trudng: biit cir sir lien kei nao dem hii Igi nhuim cudi ciing se dua den su hinh thanh lien kei khdng chfnh thuc ... cdn cac yeu td khac chi hd trg cho qua[r]
Trang 1TRONG MANG LlTOI SAN XUAT VUNG DONG A
DOONG MINH TUAN'
J ^ h u vuc Ddng A cd sir da diing ve cac
j£m,the che chinh tri, kinh te - xa hdi va
van boa va cd sir chenh lech ve trinh do phat
trien kinh te rai Idn Do viiy, mang ludi san
xuat cua khu vuc nay cung khac biet ve ca
ban so vdi cac khu vuc khac tren the gidi nhu
EU d Chau Au va NAFTA d Biic My Dd
chinh la sir hgp tac dua tren miing ludi siin
xuai phi chinh thirc (Informal economic
networks) giua cac nude, dac biet la giua
Nhat Biin vdi cac nude khac trong khu vuc
Tir diiu nhung nam 1970 deii niiy, miing ludi
Siin xuiit nay da tiio nen sir hgp tac va giin kei
mdi each hei sire chat che thdng qua diiu tu
true tiep va hoiit ddng thuang miii va dii gdp
phiin tiio nen su than ky trong tang trudng
kinh te ciia cac nude trong khu vuc Trong
bdi canh loan ciiu boa va hdi nhiip kinh te
hien nay niiing san xuiit vung tren van dugc
xem nhu hi ca sd cho hgp tac va lien kei khu
vuc ddng thdi cung gdp phiin viio sir phat
trien kinh te hei sdc nang ddng cua khu vuc
niiy Do vay, viec khiio sat va phan tich
miing Siin xuiit Ddng A cung nhu vi tri vai
trd ciia cac nude Idn, diic biet la Nhat Ban
trong khu vuc la cd y nghia quan trgng nham
tang cudng su tham gia mdt each cd hieu quii
ciia cac nude dang phat trien nhu Viet Nam
Viio phan cdng lao ddng va lien kei khu vuc
hien nay
1 Mdt sd luan thuyet chu yeu ve mang siin xuat Ddng A
Miing Siin xuiit viing la he thdng cac doiinh nghiep cd phiim vi hoiit ddng san xuiit vugt khdi bien gidi mdt qudc gia He thdng nay dugc ggi la "m;.ing ludi san xuai" vi chiing dugc duii tren su phan cdng hio ddng qudc te trong qua tiinh sim xuat Ippev Yiimiizawa ggi he thdng niiy la he thdng
phan cdng hio ddng qudc Ic {MWdAMd^ y N
^7 — ^ ) trong dd trung tam ciia miing ludi nay la cac cdng ty da qudc gia (MNCs) tir cac nude cdng nghiep phat trien Cac bd phim ciiu thanh ciia miing ludi siin xuiit la sd huu doanh nghiep vii cac quan he phi sd bti'u Hinh thirc sd huu doanh nghiep bao gdm cac cdng ty con ciia ciic MNCs xi nghiep lien
doanh Hinh thirc quan he phi ad hiru biio
gdm sir phan bd siin xuiii san xuat hgp tac miiu dich bu tru' cung cap thiei bi va nguyen vat lieu theo hinh thii'c cho thue va mua siin phiim Tiit ca cac hinh thuc nay deu dua tren cac mdi lien kei kinh te dai hiin nhu chi dao dieu phdi trang bi cdng nghe va cung cap nguyen viit lieu, va chi tiei san phiim
a Md hinh ddn nhan heiy
Miing ludi san xuiit Ddng A chii yeu dugc dinh hinh theo md hinh "dan nhiin bay""' dua tren sir phan cdng lao ddng qudc te trong
Tien si Vien Nuliien ciiu Done Bac A
' " Tham kiiao Duong Minh Tuan: "Mo hinh ddn nhan box: t/oc thuyet ciiicii lifr'c lioni^ yen ciia Nhdl tkin iron:; lio'p tdc kinh Ic viini; fJoni; A" Tap chi' Nghien cuu Nhat
KM \a Dona Bac \'\ scS 2007
Trang 2Nghien citu khoa hgc
N'Ling Md hinh nay ban diiu md ta md hinh
cdng nghiep boa ciia mdt nude phat trieii
nhung sau dd nd dugc md rdng phiim vi iip
dung cho md hinh cdng nghiep boa phat
trien miing ludi san xuiit va hgp tac trong khu
vuc Nhung diem chii yeu ciia lu(in Ihuyei
nay ddi vdi hgp tac viing hi:
-f- Cac nude kem phat trien ban cd the hgc
tir cac nude tien tieii thdng qua nhiip khiiu
nhung Siin phiim va siin xuiit hang boa cho
nhu ciiu trong nude va xuiit khiiu hang hoii
dd ra nude ngoai va cudi ciing lii nhiip khiiu
trd liii Ciic siin phiim tir cac nude kem phat
trieii hon (//////; thiiv eef hdn ciia md hinh ddn
nhan hay)
-f- Md hinh nay da tiio nen nhung chuyen
bien thuc chiit ciia nen kinh te thdng qua vice
lap liii tiing budc cimg mdt chu ky tCr sir dung
cac cdng nghe dung nhieu liio ddng deii cdng
nghe sii' dung nhiCu vdn vii cudi cung lii phiit
trien Ciic ngiinh cdng nghiep cd hiim lugng
tri thii'c va cdng nghe cao ban (////;// thii'e hidn
the eiia md hinh ddn nhan heiy)
+ Md hinh cdng nghiep boa mil Nhiil Biui
dii trai qua se dugc lap hii tir nen kinh tc nay
deii nen kinh te khac trong viing thdng qua
chuyen giao cdng nghe va diiu tu true tiep
{khia egnli qiie'ie te eiia elan nhan hay)'"'
Su hgp tac va phat trien viing theo md
hinh nay cd the hinh dung dua tren ba
nhdm nhiin bay theo trinh tu rugt dudi: thir
nhitt la Nhat Biin, thii' hai la cac nude NICs
va tiep theo la cac nude ASEAN 4 tuang iing
vdi Igi the so sanh ciia cac nude nay trong
vLing Cac nganh cdng nghiep cung chuyen
bieii mdt each tuang iing vdi cac Igi the so
sanh tren tir cac nganh su' dung nhieu lao
ddng deii cac nganh sii' dung nhieu tri thii'c
va cdng nghe Trong ddi hinh bay tren mdi con nhi.in deu nhiin dugc tii' Nhin Biui mdt co ciiu cdng nghiep tuang tu nhu ciia Nhiit Biin nhung vdi do tr*} thdi gian Idn ban va dcii mdt thdi gian nhiit dinh ca ciiu cdng nghiep
va thuang miii vung cd tinh bo xung kin nhau cung se dugc hinh thanh '''
Tren thuc te, cac nen kinh te Ddng A da tiio nen mdt chudi tang trudng cao thich irng dugc vdi sir chuyen dich ca ciiu ciia nen kinh
tc Nhiit Biin Diic bicl tir giua nhOng nam
1980 vdi sir sut giiim ciia ddng yen Nhiit FDl ciia Nhiil Biin tang niiinh trong viing dii thiic diiy tang trudng hudng theo xuiit khiiu tir cac nude NICs dCMi cac nude ASEAN 4 FDl ciia Nhiit Biin theo md hinh dan nhiin bay da chuyen dich nhO'ng ngiuih cdng nghiep tir ciip do niiy deii ciip do khiic (tir sir dung nhieu lao dong den sir dung nhieu cdng nghe) neu nganh nay d Nhiit Biin bi miit Igi the Ciinh tranh do vice nang cao trinh do cdng nghe thi Ciic nganh cdng nghiep d cac nude Ddng A khac liii cd dugc nhung Igi the
so sanh nay 0 day EDI dugc xem la hinh thiic chii yeu ciia sir phat trien miing ludi san xuiit viing tren
h Mdt sii liiejn thuyet khdc ve mgng sdn xiid't E)dng A
Cac ly thuyet truyen thdng khac nhu thuyet Igi the tuong ddi trong thuong mai qudc te van phat huy gia tri ciia nd trong viec phan tich md binh san xuat va thuong niiii d Ddng A Tuy nhien khi cac mang ludi san xuat qudc te d ciip do ciio dugc hinh thiinh
•" Kojima Kiyoshi (1997): "|iV-li;|lJ:i'i ii^f "i'Mg)j(i".|ll; Vr^
^'i;i)Tiii'iiiMi.March, tr 28
' " Giipiii Robeit (2000): "The challen:.ic of ;d(>hal capitalism: ilic worrhl cconiny in the 21 si century" Princeton U.P Kojiina Kiyoslii (1997): '•\\'Wi\'i.'ii V.'"ii-'^![
';(*)j!i'MII;V/-Ti^?;f,i1'„,m.Marcli
Trang 3ihi mdt sd nhung luiin thuyci kinh te khac
Cling can dugc xem xet va de cap den:
Tririrc het dd la giai thich sir phat trien
cua phan cdng lao ddng dua tren quy trinh
san xuiit ban la dua theo sir phan cdng theo
nganh va quy trinh nay dugc dua tren nhirng
luan thuyet kinh te nhat dinh, trong dd luiin
diem phan doan san xuiit dugc xem la co sd
quan trgng cho sir giai thich tren
Deardorff da dinh ngliTa phan doan san
xuiit la "chia tach mdt qua trinh san xuat
thanh hai hay nhieu cdng doan dugc thuc
hien d nhirng dia diem khac nhau nhung deu
hudng den san xuat san pham cudi ciing"* *
Trong quy trinh san xuat tren neu bd tri cac
khdi san xuat mdt each tach biet ve mat dja
ly nhu giua Nhiit Ban, Malaysia, va Trung
Qudc thi cd the tiet kiem dugc tdng chi phi
san xuat Vice phan doan san xuat cd hieu
quii khi chi phi cac lien ket dich vu (SL) ket
ndi giua cac khdi san xiidt (PB) thiip d miic
nhiit dinh Tuy nhien, ndi chung qua trinh
toiin cau boa se diin dcMi giam chi phi SL va
cho phep cac doanh nghiep trong nhieu
nganh cdng nghiep dugc phan doiin cac PB
ciia hg ban nua de giam tdng chi phi san
xuat Cac tac ddng ciia phan doan va tap
trung ddi khi dien ra theo hudng ngugc
chieu nhau, nhung thuc tc toan cau boa se
thiic diiy ddng thdi ca hai qua trinh nay Dieu
niiy se dua den mot thuc trang la mdt sd
nude dugc hirdng dang ke thanh qua ciia
toiin cau boa trong khi nhiing nude khac thi
khdng dugc hudng cac thanh qua dd
Ludn thuyet thu hai la sir giai thich co che
lijp trung boa siin xuiil d Ddng A Giin day
'^' DeardoilT A.V (2001): "Frai^inentaiion in simple trade
iiiodel.s" Nortii Ameican Journal of ecoiiniics and r-inaiice
12: 121-1.'^7
luiin thuyet nay dugc hinh thanh tir cac ly
thuyet v6 thuong niiii va dia ly Diic biet la
trong bdi canh ciia Ddng A cd it nhat la hai yeu td tiio nen nhung tac ddng tich cue ciia tiip trung boa Trong dd nhiin td diiu la do Ciic chi phi HLMI kit dich vu (SL) phu thude chii y£'u vao nang luc ciia co sd bii tang giao thdng va buu chinh vien thdng Yeu td khac
la nhirng lira chgn dia diem mdt each linh boat ciia cac cdng ty da qudc gia (MNEs) Theo mdt y nghia nao dd sir phan doan va tap trung boa siin xuiit tai cac dja diem dugc lua chgn cd the cd nghTa trai ngugc nhau nhat djnh nhirng tren thuc te cac MNEs da phcit huy ddng thdi dugc ca hai yeu td tren Phan doan d muc ciio nhat khi cac thiet bi, linh kien deu cd cac ban thiet ke chuan va thdi gian phan phdi cac thiet bi va linh kien niiy khdng qua khiit khe Trong nhung trudng hgp nay MNEs tim kiem cac nha cung Ciip cd mirc gia thap nhat tren thi trudng qudc te Mat khac, MNEs se lira chgn cac nha cung cap cd vi tri dia ly gan ban khi
hg phai thay ddi cac ban thiet ke ky thuat ddi vdi cac thiet bi, may mdc hoac khi thdi hiin giao hang cd y nghia quan trgng, cap thiet ban
Ludn thuyet thir ba la su giai thich md
hinh ciia cac giao djcb ndi bd d ciip do cao trong mang ludi san xuat/pban phdi qudc te Cac cdng ty dua ra quyet dinh trong phiim vi trong nude va qudc te trong cung thdi gian Hoat ddng nao dugc thuc hien trong nude va hoiit ddng nao cd the dugc thuc hien d nude ngoai hi cd y nghia hei sire quan trong trong vice tiip trung cac ngudn luc viio cac viing
ma doanh nghiep da cd ca sd viit chiit va nang lire sim xuiit nhiit dinh Sir tdn tiii ciia cac ddi tac kinh doanh tiem naim khac nhau
Trang 4Nghien citu khoa hgc
va chi phi giao djch thap trong ndi bd doanh
nghiep da dem hii nhOng ca hdi lua chgn
nang ddng ban cho cac doanh nghiep 0
Ddng A cac hgp ddng san xuiit d\\k bi
ngudn (OEM) ciing nhu su phat trien ciia cac
doanh nghiep EMS (he thdng san xuat dien
tu) the hien mot each kha rd ret nhirng luan
thii)'ct niiy
2 Mot sd diic dicni chu yen cua mang
Siin xuiit Ddng A
+ Md hinh thuang niiii qudc te ciia cac
nude Ddng A da chuyen dich mdt each
nhanh chdng iCr thuang miii mdt chieu sang
thuong niiii ndi bd ngiinh tir diiu nhung nam
1990
Cho dcii nhung nam 1980 md hinh thuang
niiii qudc te d Ddng A Viln chii yeii la md
hinh thuong miii Biic - Nam tiic la ciic nude
kem phat trien hon xuiil khiiu cac sim phiim
chii yeu dugc sim xuiil tCr cac ngudn tai
nguyen ihicn nhien trong khi dd cac nude
phat iricn nhu Nhiit Biin xuiii khiiu cac san
phiim cd hiim lugng vdn va cdng nghe cao
Cac luiin diem ciia md hinh dan nhiin bay va
CLia FDL thuong niiii dii giiii thich sir chuyen
dich Igi the ve so sanh ciia cac nganh cdng
nghiep trong thdi ky niiy'" Trong nhOng
nam 1990 cac nude dang phat trien Ddng A
bat diiu xuiit khiiu cac siin phiim cdng nghiep
diic biet hi ca khi may mdc, trong dd thuang
mai ndi bd ngiinh cdng nghiep IT ngay cang
trd nen quan trgng
+ Hiiu hei thuang niiii ndi bd nganh
cdng nghiep (ITT) d cac nude Ddng A la
theo chieu dgc ban la theo chieu ngang
Su phan boa ciia ITT thanh thuang miii theo chieu dgc va chieu ngang du'a tren dan gia ciia xuiit khiiu va nhiip khiiu theo miic phan loiii hang boa da the hien mdt thuc te hi hiiu hei ITT ciia cac nude Ddng A la theo chieu dgc va ty trgng ciia ITT theo chieu ngang hi riit thiip Ty trgng ciia ITT theo chieu dgc (linh kien) trong viing da tang tir
100 ty USD nam 1990 dkn ban 200 ty nam
1996, va 350 ty USD nam 2000 'fy trgng ciia IT'f theo chieu dgc theo cac nam tuong
tu la tren 100 ty USD, 230 ty va 265 ty USD irong khi dd ITT (linh kien) theo chieu ngang va ITT theo chieu ngang t'-ong cac nam tren la 30 ty USD, 70 ty, 80 ty USD va
32 ty USD 65 ty 60 ty USD "'' Quan siit nay the hien su ddi liip Idn vdi trudng hgp cac nude EU, trong dd ITT theo chieu ngang chicin mot ty trgng Idn trong tong khdi lugng thuong niiii dugc giao dich
-I- He thdng miing ludi khu vuc Ddng A la mdt hinh thii'c ciia licMi kei kinh te Hinh thiic lien kei niiy khac vdi lien kei chfnh thirc dugc thuc hien thdng qua cac to chiic lien kei khu vuc va cac hiep dinh hgp tac toiui dien giua cac nude va trong toan khu vuc Hinh thirc lien ket nay cd mdt sd diic trung sau:
- Dugc dinh hudng bdi thi trudng: biit cir sir lien kei nao dem hii Igi nhuim cudi ciing
se dua den su hinh thanh lien kei khdng chfnh thuc cdn cac yeu td khac chi hd trg cho qua trinh lien kei Dieu nay khac biet vdi lien kei chfnh thiic, trong dd nhieu quyei dinh dugc dinh hudng bdi cac yeu td chfnh tri va kinh te - xa hdi khac
'" Kojnna K (2000) The •pyini; i^ee.u-'' model of Asian "' Fukao K Ishido H Ito K (200.^) Veriical intra-cconomic development: Oris^in theoreiical extensions mdii.slrx trade andjoreiqn direct investment in East Asia, and re:.iional policy implications Journal of Asian Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 17 p
l-x'ononiics 11 p 37.'i 401 468-506
Trang 5- Dugc dieu phdi bcVi tu nhan: Trong lift cii
Ciic trudng hgp I ILMI kei khdng chfnh thirc
cac hoiit ddng lien kei tren thuc te ddu do tu
nhan thuc hien thieu vang hgp tiic lien chfnh
phii Miing ludi nay deu phu thude d nhu'ng
miic do khac nhau viio nhung quan he cii
nhan do nhung anh hudng sau siic ciia van
hoa Vii truyen thdng d cac nude Ddng A Sir
phu thude liin nhau ngiiy cang gia tang nhu
ciiu trao doi giao luu giira Ciic qudc gia trong
vLing
- Miing san xuiit md: Miing san xuiit theo
chieu dgc d ciip do cao dugc dien ra d Ddng
A Viio nhO'ng nam 1990 Miing ludi nay phiit
IriC'n trong nhieu nganh cdng nghiep khac
nhau nhinig phat trien mdt each niiinh mc
nhiil Cii vc lugng vii vc chiii irong nganh che
liU) iiiiiy ndi chung dd dien lir thiei bi vim
liii, niiiy chfnh xac Cac nganh cdng nghiep
chc liio bao gdm mdt phiin Idn ciic cdng doiiii
sim xuiii ihco chieu doc vii ciic cdng ly d
Ddng A bao gdm ca ciic cdng ly ciia Nhiil
Biin cd Igi the Ciiiih Uiinli trong vice nam giu
Ciic day chuyen sim xuiil ihco chieu doc
Hien nay iiiiing ludi san xuiit d Ddng A
mang tfnh kha ndi trgi tac ddng trong phiim
vi Idn ddi vdi cac nude trong khu vuc va ciip
do cao trong ca ciiu ciia niiing ludi nay the
hien d chd bao gdm ca cac giao dich trong
ndi bd doanh nghiep va giao dich tren thi
iru'dng
Hiiu hei cac nude Ddng A deu cd ty trgng
xuiii khiiu chi tiei may mdc ciio tu' 60 - 80%
trong tdng gia tri xuiii khiiu nam 2003 nhu
Singapo Malayxia Han Qudc Thiii Lan Ty
trong nay ciia Trung Qudc d nuic tren 45%
lire giin nhu d mirc trung binh va ty trgng
nhiip khiiu chi lici niiiy va thiei bi van Ciio
han xuiit khiiu Tuy nhien nude nay cOng dang tang cudng chuyen dich co ciiu xuiii khiiu cd ty trgng Iinh kien thiei bi cao hon'^' Nhu viiy miing ludi san xuiit d Ddng A khdng dan thuiin la giao dich thuang niiii mot chieu dua tren su khac biet trong vice huy ddng cac ngudn luc ma thuc ra la cac diiy chuyen san xuiit theo chieu dgc dugc thuc hien trong toiui bo niiing san xuiit Do viiy viec phan doiin cac qua trinh san xuiit Cling la mdt ndi dung tiit ycii Vice giam chi phf dich VLi do tien bd cdng nghe va cai thien nidi trudng the chc da lam cho sir phan doiin trd nen cd tfnh khii thi ban Ciic yeu td khac ciia Igi the vc mat vi trf nhu chi phf dich vu
va hieu quii ciia cac khu cdng nghiep ngay Ciing cd anh hudng gia tang den cac quyci dinh lua chgn dia diem ditu tu ciia ciic cdng
ly da qudc gia
+ Ciic Irung tam cdng nghiep dugc hinh thiinh lu Ddng A: cac Irung tiim cdng nghiep niiy ndi chung dugc bat diiu vdi su tfch luy cua Ciic cdng ly xuyen qudc gia trong ITnh vuc co' khf Vii sau dd la sir phat trien nhu la mdt su gan kei giua cac cdng ty nay va cac doanh nghiep biui xir dugc sir hd trg bdi chieii luge phat trien ciia cac nude sd tiii va
su phiit trien ciia co sd hii tiing Cac trung tam cdng nghiep hay nhO'ng diiu mdi cdng nghiep da bat diiu dugc phat tridn d Ddng A Didn hinh hi hanh lang Thugng Hai - cac tinh phfa ddng Trung Qudc va cac vung phu cim d Trung Qudc Sannut Prakan viing ven bien phfa ddng d Thai Lan, dao Pcnang va Shah Alain d Malayxia Cac trung tam cdng
"' Kimura F Ando M (200.^) The economic miahsis of inlernalKmal production I dislribiilioii networks in TasI Asia and Latin America: The implicalion of rei;itimil trade arrair.;emenls Business and Pohlics 7
NGHIEN ecru OONQ BflC fl, SO 7(89) 7-2008 17
Trang 61
Ngh ien citu khoa hgc
nghi6p phat tridn khdng chi biio gdm cac
doanh nghiep ciia rieng ciic cdng ty xuyen
qudc gia mil cdn thudng dugc kei hgp vdi cac
doanh nghiep ban xii'
3 Vai trd cua Nhat Biin vii sir mdi ndi
len ciia Trung qudc ddi vdi mang siin xuiit
Dong A
+ Xet ve quy md va ty trgng ciia cac
doanh nghiep Nhiit Biui d cac nude trong khu
vuc
Mac dii cac sd lieu thdng ke khdng the
hien dugc hoan toan thuc chiit cac quan he
ciia cac doanh nghiep nhung phiin nay dua ra
nhung sd lieu vc hoiit ddng ciia cac doanh
nghiep nhiim liim rd ca che hoiit ddng ciia
m;.iiig ludi siin xuiit d Ddng A va vi trf ciia
cac doiinh nghiep Nhat Biin trong miing ludi
san xuiit tren thdng qua vice xem xet cac so
lieu vi md ciia cac doanh nghiep Nhiit Biin
Niim 2000 3.773 trong sd 27.655 cdng ty tiii
Nhiit Biin cd 18.943 chi nhanh nude ngoai
Trong sd cac cdng ty nay 2.994 cdng ly cd
10.224 chi nbiinh d Ddng A Cd nghia hi
80% cac cdng ty Nhiit Ban ra nude ngoai cd
ft nhiit mdt chi nhanh d Ddng A va 54% chi
nhanh nude ngoai ciia cac cdng ty Nhiit dugc
dat tiii Ddng A
Anh hudng ciia hoiit ddng siin xuiit ciia
cac doanh nghiep nay d Ddng A dugc the
hien trong md hinh hoiU ddng cac chi nhanh
d Ddng A theo nganh dieu nay hoan toan
khac biet so vdi cac md hinh ddi vdi cac chi
nhanh d Bac My va Chau Au (J Ddng A
60% chi nhanh trong khu vuc la chi nhanh
Siin xuiit khdng tfnh den nganh ciia cac cdng
ty me ciia cac chi nhanh nay trong khi dd
chi nhanh siin xuiit tiii Biic My va Chau Au
liin lugt chi la 38% va 31% 6 Ddng A sd
cac chi nhanh thuc te da tang Ien trong 5
niim (1995-2000) tii' con sd 9.132 thiinh 10.224 trong khi con sd niiy giiun tii' 3.928 xudng 3.499 d Biic My va tir 3.019 xudng 2.913 d Chiiu Au'"
-h Xet theo ty trgng va quy md diiu tu vii thuang miii ciia Trung Qudc vdi cac nude khac trong khu vuc
Su tham gia mdt each dang ke' ciia Trung Qudc viio miing ludi siin xuat viing chii yeu diCn ra trong mdt sd ITnh vuc cdng nghe nhiil
dinh trong do Trung Qudc chuyen liip rap vii
Siin xuiit cac Iinh kien va ban siin pham Dieu niiy cung dugc the hien trong cac nghien ciiu
ve sir phan cdng siin xuai d Ddng A the hien
d thuang niiii giao dich ddi vdi cac Iinh kien thiei bi vdn dugc xem la hoiU ddng sdi ddng nhiit d Ddng A Theo sir phan dinh ciia cac tac gia nay trong sd nude siin xuiit Iinh kien (nude cd ca ciiu thuong miii xuai sieu vc Iinh kien) va cac nude liip rap Iinh kien (cac nude
cd CO Cii'u thuong niiii nhiip sieu ve linh kien) Trung Qudc rd rang thude cac nude liip rap linh kien gidng nhu mdt sd nude Ddng A cd thu nhiip thiip khac (Indonexia Thai Lan Malayxia)
Su tham gia ciia Trung Qudc >rong miing san xuiit khu vuc khdng chi the hien d su gia tang ve lugng cung nhu su md rdng quy md
ty trgng diiu tu ma cdn dugc the hien ca vc tiinh do cdng nghe ciia cac siin phiim xuiit khiiu CLia Trung Qudc ddi vdi cac nude trong miing ludi siin xuiit Ddng A Sir phan tfch nay sir dung su phan loiii cac siin phiim chiit lugng cao CEP II dua tren cac nghien ciiu ciia
'" Theo cac so lieu tir Kimura P Ando M (200.S) The economic analysis of international rodLiction / distribution networks in East Asia and Latin America: The implication
of regional trade arrangements Business and Politics 7
Trang 7OECD va Chau Au phan dinh sir khac biet
giOa cac san phiim cd hiim lugng cdng nghe
cao vdi Ciic san phiim khac
Nam 2002 nhiip khiiu cac san phiim cdng
nghe cao chicin 15% nhiip khiiu ciia Trung
Qudc va xuiit khiiu cac siui phiim nay la 12%
(nam 1997 cac ty trgng nay la 11% va 7%)
Ciic san phiim cdng nghe ciio chiem ti le dang
kc trong ca ciiu thuang niiii neu so sanh vdi
ciic nude dang phat trien dac biet la tu' nam
1997 den Uiiy
Hiim lugng cdng nghe Ciio ciia xuiit khiiu
Trung Qudc cd the dugc giiii thich biing nhiip
khiiu cdng nghe cao ciia nude nay, mot lugng
Idn nhiip khiiu cac sim phiim cdng nghe cao
ciui Trung Qudc (ban mot nira) bao gdm ciic
chi lici, thiei bi sau dd dc sim xuiii ra cac sim
phiiiii cho xuiit khiiu Hiiu hei cac siin phiim
cdng nghe cao xuiit khiiu ciia Trung Qudc hi
Ciic thiei bi linh kien may dieu nay chiing id
Trung Qudc dii ihaiii gia nidi ciich kha diing
kc Viio niiing ludi sim xuiii Irong khu vuc
-I- Xet iheo nidi quan he lu'oiig quan bd
sung giua Nhiit Biui vii Trung Qudc vii ciic
nude ASEAN:
Tir nhung liinh bay tren day nidi quan he
kinh tc giin day giu'a Nhiit Biin vii Trung
Qudc cung nhu vi trf ciia cac nude nay trong
niiing ludi san xuiit ciia khu vuc cd the dugc
giiii llifch nhu trong ////;/; / Trong dd true
hoimh chi niiic do phirc tiip cua cac niiit hiuig
xuiii khiiu va true tung chi khdi lugng xuiit
khiiu (thay cho ty le) tuang irng \'di cac milt
hiing xuiit khiiu d nuic do phirc tiip khac nhau
Hoiit ddng xuiit khiiu ciia nidt nude cd the
dugc xem xet thdng qua sir phan bd giua cac
Siin phiim cd mirc do phirc tiip khac nhau tir
Siin phiim cdng nghe thiip deii san phiim cdng
nghe cao Su phan bd cho hoiit dgng xuiii
khiiu ciia Nhiit Ban du kicMi sc Idn ban so vdi ciia Trung Qudc Su phan bd nay cung hudng nhieu ban ve phfa ben phai phan iinh thuc tc sail phiim cdng nghe cao chiem ty Ic Idn ban trong tdng hoiit ddng xuiit khiiu ciia Nhiil Biin Phiin keo dai ciia dien tfch giua 2 phiin giiio thoa nhau (phiin C trong /7/7//; /) - nhu mdt phiin trong tong xuiii khiiu ciia nidi nude (A ddi \'di Trung Qudc va B ddi vdi Nhiit Biin) hi chi sd ve mirc do ciinh tranh giua hai nude Dien tfch giao thoa giua 2 phiin cang Idn xet tren ty le phiin tram trong xuiii khiiu ciia Nhiit Biin (dd hi C/B) thi Trung Qudc cang ird thimh mot ddi thii ciuih tranh ngay Ciing gay gal ddi vdi Nhiit Ban Ngugc hii dien tfch phiin giao thoa cimg nhd thi khii nang co ciiu xuiii khiiu ciui Trung Qudc bd sung cho ca ciiii xuiii khiiu ciia Nhiit Biin cimg Idn Ddi vdi Trung Qudc niiic do ciinb ininh ciia nude niiy \'di Nhiit Biin dugc tfnh bang C/ A
Chac chan lugng xuiit khau lir Nhiil Ban Idn hon lugng xuiii khiiu tir Trung Qudc va CO' Ciiu xuiit khiiu cua Nhiil Biui tien tien hon
so vdi CO ciiu xuiii khiiu ciia Trung Qudc Tuy nhien Nhiit Biui van td ra lo ngiii rang phiin ciia Trung Qudc dang md rdng nhanh chdng va dang dich chuyen nhanh vc phfa bcMi phiii Ngugc hii phan bo cua Nhiit Ban liii khdng thay dcii va trieii vgng khdi dgng liii cd niiiy tang trudng kinh tc trong nude nidi d trong giai doiiii ban diiu Trudc thuc tc nay nhieu ngudi d Nhiil Biui biit diiu tin rimg Trung Qudc dii trd thanh mdt ddi Ihii ciiiih tranh dang giidni ddi \'di Nhiit Biui vii trong tuang lai giin Nhiit Ban se bi Trung Qudc chinh phuc Tht.ic ra "nguy ca" Trung Qudc chi hi Ciich ndi dan thuiin dien tii tam Iv lo
Trang 8Nghien citu khoa hgc
Quy
1110
xuai
khiiu
Hinh 1: Canh tranh giua Trung Qudc va Nhat Ban
Nhat Ban (B)
Chi sd phirc tap ciia Siin phaim
Biing 1: Canh tranh cua mdt sd nude Ddng A vol Trung Qudc tren thi trudng My
Nhiit Biin NlEs: Hiin Qudc
Dai Loan Hong Kdng Singapo ASEAN: Indonesia
Malaysia Philippines Thai Lan
1990 3.0%
24.0%
26.7%o 42.5%
14.8%
85.3%o 37.1%o 46.3%
42.2%
1995 8.3%f) 27.1%
38.7%o 50.5%o 19.2%
85.5%) 38.9%o 47.8%o 56.3%
2000 16.3%o
31.5%
48.5%) 55.9%) 35.8%o 82.8%o 48.7%o
A6.\%
65.4%«
Nguon: Kimura, Fiikunari (2003) "Fragmenteition and Agglomeration Matter: Japanese Multinationals in Latin America and East Asia." NortliAmerican Journal of Econe)mics and Finance
Mile dii tong khdi lugng xuai khiiu tii' vdi nhau - cung nhu su khac biet to Idn trong Trung Qudc dang tang nhung nhung san miic do phat trien kinh te ciia 2 qudc gia la phaim yeu ciiu nhieu lao ddng van chiem co sd cho nhung danh gia nay
phiin Idn trong co cau xuai khau ciia nude Cd hai yeu td bo sung ciin dugc tfnh toan
nay vii mirc do Ciinh tranh vdi Nhiit Biin hien di danh gia chfnh xac ban miic do canh
nay chua phiii la cao Rd rang ca cau xuat t ^ n h giira 2 qudc gia nay Trudc bet, miic dii khiiu ciia Trung Qudc va Nhat Biin dang bo "hieu sim phiim nhai dinh dugc phan loiii sung cho nhau chir khdng phiii canh tranh ^'^"g ^""g "^^t danh muc nhung trong nhieu
Trang 9trudng hgp Nhiit Ban chuyen ve nhirng san
phiim phuc vu thi trudng cd gia tri gia tiing
cao cdn Trung Qudc chuyen ve nhung san
phiim gia thanh thiip Ti vi la trudng hgp dien
hinh gia ddi vdi cac loiii ti vi cdng nghe cao
xuiit khiiu tir Nhat Ban ciio ban nhieu lan so
vdi gia ddi vdi cac loiii ti vi tieu chuiin san
xuiit d Trung Qudc San phiim xuiit khiiu ciia
Trung Qudc cung chiia dung nhieu thiei bi
Vii phu timg nhiip khiiu ban so vdi san phiim
xuiit khiiu ciia Nhiit Ban Ty le nhiip khiiu
trong cac san phiim xuiit khiiu tii' Trung
Qudc udc tfnh chiem tren 5 0 % va ty le
niiy du bao cao ban ddi vdi nhung siin
phiim gia tri gia tiing cao so vdi sim phiim gia
tri gia tang thiip
Vi viiy miic do ciinh tranh thuc te giiia
Nhiit Biin va Trung Qudc thiiiii chf d niiic do
thiip so vdi cac nude khac trong khu vuc
NgOiii ra, ciuih tranh giua Nhiil Ban va Trung
Qudc chi tdn tiii trong nhung san phiim cd
gia tri gia tang tuong ddi thiip ddi vdi nhung
Siin phiim nay Nhiit Ban khdng cdn dugc
hudng biii ky Igi the dang ke nao
Khi so sanh ciing ciin tfnh toan miic do
Ciiiih tranh vdi Trung Qudc ciia cac nen kinh
te Ddng A khac Theo udc tfnh cac qudc gia
ASEAN - vdi miic thu nhiip viin thiip - cd xu
hudng Ciuih tranh vdi Trung Qudc nhieu ban
so vdi cac nu'dc NlEs Ddng A nhung nude
dang d giai doiin phat trien kinh tc tien tien
hon (Biing 1)
Do Viiy ddi vdi iiiiing ludi san xuiit ciia
khu vuc miic dii cd sir tham gia mdt each
tfch cue vdi quy md Idn ciia Trung Qudc
nhirng dudi sir lac ddng ciia phan cdng hio
ddng qudc te va sir phat trien ciia R&D nen
vi irf va su tham "ia ciia Nhat Biin, cac nude
NICs Trung Qudc va cac nude ASEAN trong miing ludi siin xuiit khu vuc van theo nhu'ng tiinh tu va ciip do nhiit dinh, trong dd Nhiit Biin va mdt so nude NICs van dugc xem la nhung nude phat trien hang diiu va cd vai trd chii yeii ddi vdi sir phat trien ciia khu vuc Ddng thdi vdi cac nude ASEAN Trung Qudc cung ngiiy cang tham gia mdt each sau rdng va ngiiy cang khang dinh dugc vi trf ciia nude nay trong phat trien ciia niiing ludi san xuiit va hgp tiic kinh te trong vung
TAI LIEU T H A M K H A O
1 Rolatid-Holst Diivid (2006) "Globed
Supply Networks and M tilt i lateral Trade Liiikofics: A Sirtieliiral Analysis e>f East Asia",
Working paper M;iich 31 University of California Berkeley, CA
2 Roland-Hoist Da\id Jean-Pieirc Verbiest,
and Fan Zhai, (200.^1), '^Growth and Trade
ihirizons h"' Asia: Loiii^-Term h'oreeasts fe>r Redioiuil Ime;.iralion," ERD Working Paper 74
(NoN'ember) Economics and Research Depaitmcnt, Asian De\elopnient Bank, Manila
3 Shapiro, Carl, and Hal R Varian, (1999),
lidormatioii Rules: A Stratci^ie Guide to the Network Eeemomy Boston: Harvard Business
School Press
4 YusuL Shiihid, M Aiijum Altaf and Kaoru
Nabeshima eds, 2004, Global Produedon
Networkiiii^ and Teelmole>i^ieal Change in East Asia Washington, DC: World Bank
5 Kimura Fukunari, (2003), "'Developmenl
Stratciiies for Economies under Glohalisation:Se>iillieast Asia as a New Development ModeC Forthcoining in Tran Van
Hoa and Charles Har\ie eds New Asian
Rei^ie>iialism: Responses lo Glohalisatioii and Crises London: Palgravc