Mpt md hinh ddn gian dfldc xay dflng tren cho thay: vdi mpt nfldc dang phat trien, cd' ging thu hut FDI khong chi n h i m tan dung cd hpi tiep can thi trfldng, tiep can cdng nghe hi[r]
Trang 1Lao dong, FDI va co che ty gia hoi doai
- mot nno hinh don gian
PHAM SY AN
ML 'nin kinh te trong nUdc tiep can den thi tracing nUdc ngodi, tiep can cong nghe mdi, ky )f>ng vdn FDI mang lgi nhiiu ldi ich cho cdc nUdc dang phdt trien FDI Id mpt kenh de ndng qudn ly mdi vd thu hut lao dpng Hdu het cdc nUdc dang phdt trien diu mong muon vd canh tranh vdi nhau de thu hdt FDI thong qua nhieu bien phdp vd chien lUdc khdc nhau Mpt trong nhdng nhdn to'tdc dpng ldn den viec thu hut FDI Id ty gid hdi dodi Trong hdi viet ndy, tdc gid dUa ra mpt mo hinh cho thay, cd che'ty gid hdi dodi cd dinh hay dong npi te dinh gid cao, CO the tdc dpng bdt ldi den viec thu hdt FDI vd dnh hudng ddng he den viec Idm tgi cdc doanh nghiep FDI xudt khdu
1 Doanh n g h i e p FDI tai cac nvLdc
dang phat t r i e n
Mpt kbpan dang ke FDI vao cac nfldc
dang phat trien n h i m t a n dung gia n h a n
cong re va s i n xua't s i n pham cho xua't
khau Vi du, vdi mo hinh "dan seu bay",
cac nfldc di trfldc (ching ban, H a n Qud'c,
Dai Loan) dang chuyen cac nha may san
xuat tham dung lao dpng (nhfl cac n h a
may s i n xua't giay dep, det may, l i p rap
linh kien dien tii, ) sang cac nen kinh te
dajag phat trien di sau (nhfl Thai Lan,
Inddnexia, Viet Nam) Nhieu nfldc dang
p h a t trien dang thflc hien cd che ty gia hd'i
doai cd' dinh hay ty gia bd'i doai dfldc g i n
vdi mpt ddng tien m a n h nao dd, thong
thfldng la ddng dola My va thflc hien
nhflng quy t i c dieu chinh khac n h a u ^
Ddng thdi, ddng tien ciia nhieu nfldc dang
phat trien nay dfldc danh gia dinh gia qua
cao so vdi ddng ddla My; ty gia bo'i doai
danh nghia dfldc pha gia cham hdn va nhd
hdn Sd vdi td'c dp t a n g va chenh lech gifla
lam phat ctia cac nfldc dang p h a t trien tiep
n h a n FDI vdi nfldc ma no co ddng tien g i n
vao, c h i n g h a n My Vay, t a t ca dieu nay co
anh hfldng gi den dong FDI? Co tac dpng
gi den h a n h vi sii dung lao dpng va h a n h
vi tra Ifldng cho lao dpng ciia cac doanh
nghiep FDI? Bai viet nay se xay dflng mdt
mo hinh ddn gian n h i m t r a ldi cac cau hdi tren Bai viet chi cung cap them mpt luan cfl ling hp cd che ty gia hoi doai linh boat hdn, chfl nd khong n h i m u n g hp cho cd che
ty gia hoi doai linh hoat
Trong bai viet, nham muc dich ddn gian,
gia sii: h a u het san pham s i n xua't cua
doanh nghiep FDI danh cho xuat khau, tflc
la ban tren thi trfldng canh t r a n h qud'c te de thu ngoai te va doanh nghiep tra Ifldng cho ngfldi lao dpng bang ddng tien Viet Nam vdi viec quy ddi tfl dola sang ddng Viet Nam thong qua ty gia hoi doai co' dinh, cd the dfldc dieu chinh bdi Ngan hang Nha nfldc, nhflng viec dieu c h i n h n a y nhd hdn chenh lech gifla ty le lam p h a t trong nfldc va nfldc My; doanh nghiep FDI chi sii dung mpt dau vao cho san x u a t la lao dpng Nhfl vay, ham
Pham Sy An, ThS., Vien Kinh te' Viet Nam
1 Chang ban, Ngan hang Nha nudc chinh thiic quy dinh ty gia hd'i doai giira dong Viet Nam va ddla la Ixxx ddng cho 1 ddla va cho phep thi trudng dieu chinh ty gia trong pham vi y% Hay NgSn hang Nha nudc quy dinh
ty gia hd'i doai tren thi trudng tu do chi duac phep giao ddng trong bien do x% so vdi ty gia hd'i doai chinh thiic tren thj trudng ngoai te lien ngftn hang
4 8
Trang 2Lao Uong, FDi vd co che
san xua't ciia doanh nghiep cd the viet dfldi
dang:
7 - r , a e (0,1)
Trong dd: Y la san Ifldng s i n xua't va L
la so'Ifldng lao dpng sii dung
Dieu kien a e (0,l) dam bao san pham
lao dpng can bien ldn hdn khdng va ldi tflc
theo quy mo giam d i n , hay bieu dien dfldi
dang ky hieu nhfl sau:
dY/dL > 0 va d^Y/dL^ < 0
Ldi nhuan cua doanh nghiep dfldc bieu
diln b i n g chenh lech gifla doanh thu ban
hang (hang hda dfldc ban tren thi trfldng
the gidi va quy ve ddng Viet Nam thdng
qua ty gia hd'i doai co' dinh) va chi phi (tien
Ifldng tra cho ngfldi lao dpng)
TT = EP^L" - w'L ,
'• Trpng dp, E ky hieu cho ty gia hd'i doai;
P la gia mpt ddn vi san pham ban tai thi
trfldng the gidi, tinh b i n g ddla My; w'^ la
tien Ifldng tra cho mpt ngfldi lao dpng, tinh
b i n g ddng Viet Nam
Doanh nghiep FDI thue lao dpng de
thflc hien td'i da hda ldi n h u a n , do dd, dieu
kien bac 1 cho viec giai bai toan la
d/r/dL = 0 Giai bai toan ddn gian nay,
chung ta thu dfldc c i u lao dpng ciia doanh
nghiep FDI:
L' = w
ccEP^
a-]
n
Gia Sli d day r i n g E la ty gia hoi doai
td'i flu ban d i u sao cho cau lao dpng L''
b i n g vdi cung lao dpng L ; tflc la: if =T
Nhu cau lao dpng cua doanh nghiep FDI
phu thupc vao 3 yeu to': tien Ifldng, ty gia
hd'i doai va gia ban san pham
2 Danh gia cao ty gia hoi doai va
that nghiep
0 tren da de cap den viec ddng tien ciia
nhieu nfldc dang p h a t trien danh gia qua
cao, vay dieu nay cd tac ddng the nao den nhu c i u lao dpng ctia cac doanb nghiep FDI va do dd la van de viec lam va that nghiep? De tra ldi cho cau hdi nay, gia sti gifl nguyen cac yeu to' khac (nhfl: tien Ifldng danh nghia t r a cho ngfldi lao dpng trong nfldc va gia ban s i n pham tai thi trfldng nfldc ngoai) va ty gia dd'i doai danh
nghia dfldc dinh gia la E* sao cho:
E* < E Tai ty gia E *, nhu c i u lac ddng
ciia doanh nghiep FDI n h i m td'i da hda ldi
n h u a n se la:
U* = w
aE*P f
Ro rang, vdi E* < E , nhu c i u lao ddng
ciia doanh nghiep FDI khi ty gia hd'i doai
dfldc danh gia d mflc E * se thap hdn nhu
cau lao dpng ciia doanh nghiep FDI khi ty
gia hd'i doai d mflc E, hay L * <L
Khoang chech lech nay se la khoang lao dpng khdng dfldc thue (that nghiep) do ty gia hd'i doai bi dinh gia cao
Tiep theo, chung tdi cho thay, nhu ciu lao dpng cua doanh nghiep FDI se nhfl the nao neu td'c dp tang gia trong nfldc ldn bdn
tong td'c dp tang gia ban san pham va tang
ty gia hd'i doai danh nghia Dao ham nhu cau lao dpng cua doanh nghiep FDI (*)
theo {w'^ JEP'), chflng ta thu dfldc^:
d\w dl^_
2-a
1
a{a - 1 )
w
aEP^ <0
Nhfl vay, nhu c i u lao ddng se giam khi td'c dp tang gia trong nfldc ldn hdn tdng td'c
dp tang gia ban s i n pham va tang ty gia bd'i doai Ndi each khac, khi ddng npi te dfldc dinh gia cao, nhu c i u lao dpng cua cac doanh nghiep FDI se giam so vdi nhu cau lao dpng khi ddng npi te dfldc giam gia
Nghiin ciru Kinh li si 380 - Thing 1/2010
2 Gia sir td'c dd tang luang bang vdi tdc do tang gia
49
Trang 3Lao Uong, FDI vd co che
Mpt vi du vd minh hga bdng do thi:
Gia sti mpt dpanh nghiep FDI s i n xuat
giay vdi gia 1 USD 1 doi, ban tai thi trfldng
the gidi Mpt thang doanh nghiep s i n xua't
1000 ddi giay, doanh thu 1 thang la 1000
USD Cung gia sii doanh nghiep thue lao dpng
trong nfldc 1000 ngfldi vdi tien Ifldng 10.000
VND mpt thang chp mpt lao dpng Ty gia ho'i
doai ban dau la 10.000 VND cho 1 USD Nhfl
vay, ldi nhuan cua doanh nghiep b i n g 0 Ban
dau gia svt chi so' gia chung ciia tdng the nen
kinh te (chang ban, chi so' gia tieu dung) d
mflc 100, tien Ifldng thflc cho 1 lao dpng trong
1 thang la 10.000 VND Tuy nhien, khi mflc
gia tang len 110 hay ty le lam phat tang 10%
Luc nay, de dam bao tien Ifldng thflc te khong
ddi, ngfldi lao dpng yeu ciu tang Ifldng them
10%, len den 11.000 VND cho 1 thang Neu
v i n vdi ty gia co' dinh: 10.000 VND cho 1
USD, doanh nghiep se phai chi tdi 1,1 USD
cho 1 lao dpng va vdi 1000 lao dpng, nd phai
chi tdi 1.100 USD mpt thang cho tien Ifldng
lao dpng Vdi gia ban 1 doi giay tren the gidi
khdng doi; ldi nhuan ciia ddanh nghiep se am
Luc nay, mpt la doanh nghiep giam lao dpng
va hai la thoat ra khdi thi trfldng Vdi gia sii
long leo hdn, ty gia bo'i doai v i n tang nhflng
thap hdn 10%; dpanh nghiep v i n phai chiu ldi
nhuan am, mac du 'Id" it hdn khi ty gia bo'i
doai cd dinh Do dd, doanh nghiep FDI luon
khong mong muo'n tang Ifldng, bat chap dang
cd nhu cau ve lao dpng Vdi tien Ifldng kheng
tang va mflc gia tang, rd rang tien Ifldng thflc
te cua ngfldi lao dpng giam Neu tai mflc tien
Ifldng 10.000 VND cho 1 ngfldi lao dpng trong
1 tbang va vdi mflc gia 100 dam bao tien
Ifldng thflc te' can b i n g gifla cung va cau lao
dpng, thi vdi tien Ifldng nhfl cu va mflc gia
tang, cung lae dpng se thap hdn c i u lao dpng
trong khu vflc FDI Dieu nay c6 the dfldc the
hien d dd thi ben
Trong dd thi ben, W/P(0) ky hieu tien lUdng
thiic te khi chi sd gia d mflc 100, tien Ifldng
danh nghia 10.000 VND cho ngfldi lao dpng 1
thang va L* ky hieu lao dpng can b i n g tai
mflc Ifldng danh nghia nay W/P(l) ky hieu
tien Ifldng thflc te khi chi so' gia tang len 110, tien Ifldng danh nghia doanh nghiep FDI tra cho ngfldi lao dong khong thay doi (do ty gia hoi doai khong thay ddi, hoac ty gia ho'i doai thay ddi nhd hdn toe do tang gia, d day la 10%) L^ la cung lao dpng tai mflc Ifldng thflc W/P(l) va L** la cau lao dong tai mflc Ifldng thflc mdi nay Khoang chenh lech gifla L** va L' la so' Ifldng lao dpng khong dfldc thue do ty gia hdl doai co' dinh
Luong thi/c tS
S6 luong lao d^ng
3 Tang lifdng d a n h nghia va thu hut FDI
Vdi ty gia hoi doai co' dinh va gia ban san pham d thi trfldng canh tranh nfldc ngoai khong ddi, v6i chinh sach tang Ifldng danh nghia hen tuc nham theo kip lam phat, ldi nhuan trong doanh nghiep FDI se nhfl the nao Co the tra ldi cau hdi nay b i n g mpt sd phep tinh ddn gian nhfl sau:
Ldi nhuan ciia doanh nghiep khi tien Ifldng
d mflc w'' se thap hdn ldi nhuan cua doanh nghiep khi tien Ifldng d mflc w * vdi
w''* > w'' Chung ta co the lam dieu nay bing
each thay ham cau lao dpng ciia doanh nghiep FDI (*) vao ham ldi nhuan va dao ham ldi nhuan theo tien Ifldng tra cho ngfldi lao dpng Ke't qua dao ham nay se am va chflng td khi tien Ifldng danh nghiep tang, ldi nhuan cua doanh nghiep FDI giam
Thay ham cau lao dong (*) vao ham ldi nhuan ta co:
Tt^EP w
aEP^
a-\
-W
W
oEP^
a-\
Trang 4Lao dong, FDI vd co che
Dao ham theo w'^ chung ta thu dfldc:
dn a {
a-l (a£P^)-«(w'')<^-i a
1
Ket luan nay cd y nghia gi trong viec thu
hut FDI ciia Viet Nam ndi rieng va cac nfldc
dang phat trien thflc hien chinh sach ty gia
hd'i doai cd' dinh ndi chung Tang tien Ifldng td'i
thieu, hoac ddn gian lad dpng gay sflc ep tang
mflc Ifldng doanh nghia n h i m b i t kip tdc dp
tang mflc gia, trong dieu kien ty gia hd'i doai
cd' dinh, hoac dieu chinh cham hdn rat nhieu
so vdi chenh lech gifla td'c dp tang gia trong
nfldc va gia nfldc ngoai, cu the la My, se lam
giam ldi nhuan ciia cac doanh nghiep FDI, do
dd se khdng khuyen khich cac doanh nghiep
nfldc ngoai d i u tfl trong nfldc
4 Ket luan
Khi khao sat cac doanh nghiep FDI sii
dung nhieu lao dpng, cd nhflng doanh nghiep
hien dang cd tdi hang nghin cdng nhan trong
nha may, san xua't giay cho xua't khau, rat
nhieu doanh nghiep phan nan khong thue ndi
lao dpng (khdng ky nang); trong khi dd, ngfldi
lao dpng lai phan nan tien Ifldng qua thap de
cd the lam viec Tai sao vdi nhu cau lao dpng
tang, tien Ifldng khdng tang theo nhfl de xua't
cua md binh cung-cau trong nhflng quyen
sach kinb te vi mo ma cac sinh vien dfldc hpc?
Cau tra ldi nam d che dp ty gia bd'i doai ma
Viet Nam va nhieu nfldc dang phat trien khac
dang ap dung Mpt md hinh ddn gian dfldc xay
dflng tren cho thay: vdi mpt nfldc dang phat
trien, cd' ging thu hut FDI khong chi n h i m
tan dung cd hpi tiep can thi trfldng, tiep can
cdng nghe hien dai, tiep can trinh dp quan ly
mdi, ma cdn n h i m tan dung kha nang thu but
lao ddng vao trong khu vflc FDI; vdi nhflng
doanh nghiep FDI svf dung cong nghe tham
dung nhieu lao dpng vao cac nfldc dang phat
trien nhim tan dung gia lao dpng re va san
xua't san pham cbo xua't khau; vdi che dp ty
gia hdl doai cd' dinh vao ddng ddla My hay
thflc hien dieu chinh theo mpt so' nguyen t i c
nhflng ddng npi te van bi danh gia cao, hay ty
gia bdi doai dieu cbinh khdng tfldng xflng vdi
chenh lech ty le lam phat gifla nfldc nhan FDI
va nfldc cd ddng tien dfldc neo; ket qua thu dfldc la nhu ciu lao dpng cua cac doanh nghiep FDI thap bdn va ldi nhuan cua cac doanh nghiep FDI thap hdn so vdi khi ty gia hd'i doai dfldc dieu chinh linh boat hdn, phu hdp hdn vdi chenh lech lam phat gifla nfldc nhan FDI va "nfldc ngoai" Ndi each khac, chinh sach ty gia hd'i doai cd' dinh trong trfldng hdp ty le lam phat trong nfldc cao hdn
so vdi ty le lam phat nfldc ngoai, se lam cho nhieu lao ddng khdng dfldc tan dung va khdng thu hut dfldc nhieu FDI, so vdi trfldng hdp ty gia ho'i doai linh boat hdn
Bai viet nay khdng co' ging tim cau tra ldi toan dien cho viec pha gia ddng npi te td't hay khong td't cho ddng FDI va viec lam; viec thflc bien cd che ty gia hd'i ddai linh hdat hdn la td't hay khdng td't cho ddng FDI va viec lam Phat trien md hinh hay xay dflng mpt md binh hoan toan mdi va thflc hien nghien cflu thflc nghiem se la nhiem vu cho cac nha nghien cflu khac O day, tac gia chi dfla them mpt ly
do nham khdng iing hp cho che dp ty gia ho'i doai cd' dinh hay cd dieu chinb, nhflng dieu chinh khdng tfldng thich vdi chech lech ty le lam phat gifla nen kinh te trong nfldc va nfldc
cd ddng tien dfldc gan vao Bai viet chi tap trung vao y tfldng hdn la mpt nghien cflu thflc nghiem./
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Alba, J D., Wang P., va Park D (2009), "The Impact
of Exchange Rate on FDI and the Interdependence of FDI Over Time," ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No
164 Binh, N N., va Haughton, J (2002), 'Trade Liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam," ASEAN Economic Bulletin, December
Hoang, T T (2008), "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam," Bai vie't duac trinh bay tai hdi thao: "International Colloquium on Asian Business (ICAB)
2008, tir ngay 30 thang 6 den ngay 03 thang 7 nam 2008, tai Bangkok, Thailand
Kiyota, K va Urata, S (2004), "Exchange Rate, Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Vol 27 No 10, pp 1501-1536