Sau 6 nam tang triidng lien tuc vdi miic binh quan 5,36% nam, do anh hiidng tieu ciic ciia khiing hoang tai chinh the gidi, ttf cudi nam 2008 va ca nam 2009, kinh te' cac niidc khu v[r]
Trang 1CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 04-2010
KINH TE MY LATINH:
^?
HIEN TRANG VA TRIEN VONG
^W\ rdi qua mot nam day thic
^j\ J thach, kinh te khu viXc My
^ • • ^ Latinh dang chao don thap ky
thii hai the ky XXI vdi nhiing ky vong
mdi Tii thiXc liCc kinh te ciia khu vi/c
vd nhiing moi ti/Ong quan vdi kinh te
the gidi, kinh te khu viic My Latinh
dang hiCa hen mot thdi ky khdi sac
Hien trang kinh te My Latinh
Sau 6 nam tang triidng lien tuc vdi
miic binh quan 5,36% nam, do anh
hiidng tieu ciic ciia khiing hoang tai
chinh the gidi, ttf cudi nam 2008 va ca
nam 2009, kinh te' cac niidc khu viic
My Latinh bi dinh ddn, viec lam bi cat
giam, ty le that nghiep tang
Lam phat giam tii 8,3% nam 2008
xudng cdn 4,5% nam 2009 do gia ca
tren thi triidng qud'c te giam, dac biet
la gia cua cac san pham nguyen vat
lieu, hang hoa thiet yeu va tieu dung
gia dinh Ty gia hd'i doai mdt sd' ddng
ndi te ciia cac niidc d khu viic nay
tang cao do hoat ddng kinh te bi thu
hep Nam 2009, tang triidng GDP
toan khu viic My Latinh la am 1,8%
Quy md thiidng mai giam siit do hoat
ddng kinh te toan cau thu hep keo
theo nhu cau d cac thi triidng Idn nhii
My, EU, Nhat Ban giam, gia san
pham cd ban, nguyen nhien vat lieu
giam Hoat ddng kinh doanh thu
ngoai te, dac biet la d Mexico, Trung
My va Caribbean bi dinh dd'n, du lich
thifa thdt
Phifofng N h u n g
Hoc vien Chinh tri HCQG Ho Chi Minh
FDI vao toan khu viic giam tdi 37% Viec cung iing cho thi triidng vdn vay va tin dung d khu viic tii nhan gap khdng it khd khan; tin dung ngan hang khu viic nha nifdc ciing bi xao trpn, khdng dap iing difdc nhu cau Den niia cudi nam 2009, kinh te
My Latinh cd dau hieu d&n phuc hdi Cac chi sd' san xuat cdng nghiep va xuat khau viidt qua diem day Hdat ddng kinh te va thiidng mai qud'c te da thuc day nhu c&u tieu thu hang hoa, nhu yeu pham, gia nang cao dan, quy md trao doi thifdng mai tiing bifdc md rdng trd lai
Ngay 3/2/2010, Lien hiep qud'c da cdng bd' cac chi sd' phat trien kinh te'
-xa hdi va mdi trifdng cua khu viic My Latinh trcng 60 nam qua, tii nam
1950 den nam 2009 Theo van ban nay, trong 60 nam qua, nen kinh te khu viic My Latinh va Caribbean tang triidng trung binh 4%/nam trong khi dan so' tang 2,1%/nam Sd' ngiidi gia trong khu viic da tang gap ddi, trong khi sd' tre em giam 13% Ve mdi trifdng, tii nam 1970 den 2008, tieu hao nang liidng de san xuat ra lUdng hang hoa tri gia 1 trieu USD trong GDP cua khu viic giam khdng dang
ke, dieu dd cd nghia, tieu hao nang liidng hau nhii khdng difdc tiet kiem
Uy ban Lien hiep qud'c ve kinh te
-xa hdi khu viic My Latinh va Caribbean (ECLAC) canh bao, neu khdng khac phuc diidc cac nguyen
Trang 2SO 04-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
nhan gay bat binh dang, so' phu nut va
tre em trong khu viic lam vao ddi
ngheo se tang tdi miic dang lo ngai
Trong 6 nam tii nam 2002 den
2008, sd' phu nii cd nguy cd lam vao
canh ddi ngheo cao gap 1,15 l&n so vdi
nam gidi, trong khi so' tre em difdi 15
tudi sdng ngheo kho trong khu viic
cao gap 1,7 lan so vdi sd'ngifdi trifdng
thanh cua toan khu viic
Ciing trong thdi gian nay, 41 trieu
ngifdi da thoat khdi ddi ngheo nhd
kinh te tang triidng, va sd' ngifdi sdng
difdi miic ngheo khd tang tii 180 trieu
len 189 trieu
T i e m n a n g v a t h a c h thufc doi
vdi k i n h t e My L a t i n h
Thach thiic Idn nhat vdi kinh te
khu viic chinh la nhiing he luy cua
khiing hoang tai chinh nam 2008 Bao
cao cua Quy Tien te qud'c te (IMF) ve
"Tinh hinh kinh te khu viic" cho r i n g ,
cudc khung hoang kinh te' - tai chinh
toan cau cd the khie'n khu viic My
Latinh va Caribbean bi thiet hai hdn
150 ty USD Dii doan, tang trifdng
kinh te cua khu viic nay se d miic diidi
3% vao nam 2014, khie'n GDP/dau
ngifdi se bi giam siit
Theo bao cao ciia ECLAC, trong
nam 2009, cudc khiing hoang kinh te
-tai chinh toan cSu khie'n khu viic My
Latinh va Caribbean bi thiet hai
nang Kim ngach xuat khau ciia khu
viic giam 25% gia tri va 11% khdi
liidng so vdi nam 2008 Chi tinh rieng
quy 1/2009, kim ngach xuat khau cua
My Latinh giam 30,9% gia tri, miic
thap nhat ke tii nhiing nam 1930
Cudc khiing hoang kinh te nay da
gay ra nhieu he luy ma the hien rd
net nhat la viec ty le that nghiep d
khu viic da tang dang ke Ca To chiic
Lao dong qud'c te va Uy ban Kinh te
cac nifdc My Latinh va viing
Caribbean deu lidc tinh se cd them 3 trieu ngiidi mat viec lam, nang ty le that nghiep nam 2009 len tdi 9%, nghia la trd lai vdi miic that nghiep cua khu viic trong nam 2005 Mat viec lam de lai nhiing hau qua nghiem trpng ve mat xa hdi Cudc khung hoang cd the dao ngifdc nhiing chi sd'
ve ty le tii vong va suy dinh difdng quay trd ve miic tifdng difdng vdi nam
2006 VI du, nam 2009 ty le tii vong tre em cd the se tang tii 22 phan nghin nam 2007 len 24 phan nghin, tiidng diidng vdi miic ciia nam 2005 va
2006 To chiic Ndng lifdng cua Lien hiep qud'c canh bao r i n g , nam 2009, sd' ngifdi thieu an hang ngay d My Latinh va viing Caribbean, se len den
53 trieu ngifdi, tifdng diidng vdi 10% dan so' cua khu viic Nhiing thach thiic nay qua la khdng nhd vdi nen kinh te dang tren da hdi phuc sau khiing hoang
Theo IMF, tac ddng cua cudc khung hoang kinh te ddi vdi cac niidc My Latinh va Caribbean se keo dai den nam 2010 vi nganh du lich cua khu viic van bi anh hifdng nang ne do ty le that nghiep cao d cac nifdc phat trien ECLAC thi cho rang, thdi diem tdi
te nhat cua nen kinh te My Latinh va Caribbean da qua, nhifng canh bao sii phuc hdi nay chiia thiic sii ben viing
vi nhiing tac nhan ben ngoai chifa dn dinh van cd the chi phdi nen kinh te khu viic
Triidc nhiing thach thiic ciia cudc khiing hoang kinh te ddi vdi khu viic
My Latinh, cac qud'c gia trong khu viic cang can phai nd liic nhieu hdn niia Tuy nhien, ciing phai khang dinh nhiing tiem nang to Idn la siic manh kinh te cua khu viic, la ddi tac mong mud'n khdng chi rieng cua niidc My, Nga va Trung Qud'c Tii phan tich cac dieu kien kinh te xa hoi, cd the neu
Trang 3CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 04-2010
len mdt sd' tiem nang kinh te ndi bat
cua My Latinh nhii sau:
- Day la mdt thi trifdng rdng Idn,
vdi so' dan hdn 1/2 ty ngifdi Tvf lau
khu viic Nam My cd vai trd quan
trpng nhii la san sau ciia Bac My
- La khu viic cd dat dai mau md,
khi hau thuan Idi cho canh tac ndng
nghiep trdng trpt cay liidng thiic, rau
qua, chan nudi
- My Latinh cd the trd thanh kho
liidng thiic cung cap du cho toan the
gidi neu biet bao tdn va khai thac hdp
ly dat dai ndng nghiep
- La ndi cung cap ngudn tai nguyen
dau md khi dd't, nguyen nhien vat lieu
chien lifdc quy hiem cho cdng nghiep
the gidi nhif quang sat, uran, thiec,
ddng, nguyen lieu da
- Ngudn lao ddng ddi dao cd Idi the
canh tranh, mdt bd phan lao ddng cd
tay nghe kha trong cac nganh lap rap
xe hdi, may bay, dien may va cac san
pham che tao
- Cd GDP/ngiidi dat miic trung binh
kha cua the'gidi
Trien vong cua kinh te khu v\ic
My Latinh < !
Nen kinh te My Latinh cd vien
canh phat trien kha tdt, se dat miic
tang triidng GDP tdi 4,1% trong nam
2010 va cdn d miic cao hdn vad nhiing
nam tiep theo Da phan cac nifdc Nam
My cd dp md kinh te' rdng, quan he
mat thie't vdi thi trifdng the' gidi Cac
nifdc nhii Brazil, Chile, Argentina,
Mexico, Peru, Colombia chie'm ty
trpng hdn 80% tdng GDP cua toan
khu viic da thiic thi cac bien phap
manh me trong viec kich cau ndi dia
Cac nifdc nay cd thi trifdng ndi dia
tiem nang Idn, difdc cci la ddng liic
chinh phat trien kinh te, neu tich ciic
thiic hien da dang hoa thi trifdng dau
ra nhat la tang cifdng quan he kinh te
vdi Chau A, dac biet vdi Trung Qud'c, se cd miic tang trifdng kinh te cac hdn cac nifdc khac cdn lai trong khu viic
Kinh te My Latinh dang lay lai phong dp sau nhiing ngay sdng gid cua suy thoai Cac chuyen gia cua Hang danh gia nii ro Moody's trong bao cao cua hp ve trien vpng tang trifdng cua chau luc va da difa ra ket luan r&ng, sii suy thcai cua My Latinh trong nam 2009 dien ra trong thdi gian khdng dai va d miic dp nhe Hdn the, sau khi vifdt qua suy thoai, My Latinh se la mdt trong so' it cac khu viic trd thanh d&u tau phuc hdi va tang trifdng ciia kinh te' the gidi Moody's nhan xet r i n g , sii phuc hdi trifdc tien cua khu viic nay se khdi dau tif cac niidc Nam My, vi nen kinh
te ciia cac nifdc nay da dang va phong phii hdn trong linh viic thiidng mai qud'c te, mat khac cac nifdc nay ciing
da ban hanh va thiic thi cac bien phap manh me hdn nham kich cau ndi dia,
dd la cac nifdc nhif Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico, Peru, Colombia Theo nghien ciiu va phan tich ciia Moody's, mdt trong nhiing nhan td' giup khu viic nay khang cii tdt vdi suy thoai va phuc hdi kha nhanh la tinh ben viing cua cac yeu td' kinh te vi md
da difdc cung cd' tii sau cac cudc khung hoang trifdc day Dac biet la cac nifdc nay da cd sii dieu chinh kha td't trong cac can ddi cd ban Mat khac, quyet tam ciia cac chinh phii trong viec thiic thi cac chinh sach chdng khung hoang ciing la mdt nhan to' quyet dinh khac giiip cho khu viic nhanh chdng ra khdi suy thoai Ben canh dd, cac chinh phii cdn cung cd manh me ngudn ndi liic
de iing phd td't hdn khi ngudn ngoai liic suy giam Thiic te, cac nifdc hien dang dan dau ve tang trifdng la nhiing nifdc cd miic suy thoai nhe va
Trang 410 SO 04-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
ddng thdi la nhiing nifdc cd thi trifdng
ndi dia viing chai nhat Sii tang
trifdng cua nhiing niidc dd phu thupc
khdng qua nhieu vao kinh te ddi ngoai
nhii Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile va
Bolivia Cdn ddi vdi cac niidc nhif
Argentina, Venezuela, hien van la
nhiing trifdng hdp ma kinh te ciia hp
dang phai difdng dau vdi nhieu thach
thiic ve cac yeu td' kinh te vi md
Trong liic dd, kinh te ciia Mexico va
cac nifdc Trung My se phuc hdi va
tang trifdng cham hdn vi phu thude
nhieu hdn vao chu ky kinh te cua My
Miic tang trifdng difdng trong nam
2010 la con so' md ifdc cua nhieu qud'c
gia My Latinh vdi miic tang trifdng
dii tinh 4,1% nam 2010 tuy van thap
hdn so vdi miic tang trifdng ciia nam
2008 nhiing ciing la nhiing dau hieu
kha quan Thach thiic van cdn d phia
trifdc nhifng vdi tiem nang va thiic liic
cua nen kinh te khu viic thupc hang
kha ciia the gidi, My Latinh dang
hifdng tdi sii phat trien ben viing De
dam bao mdt sii tang trifdng ben
viing, My Latinh can tang cifdng cac
ngudn liic phat trien lau ben nhii tiet
kiem va dau tif, cai thien nang suat
lao ddng va ddi mdi cdng nghe, thdng
qua cac cai each ve cd cau, ngoai ra,
khu viic nay ciing phai de phdng vdi
cac mdi de dpa ve bien ddng tai chinh
cd the xay ra tren thi triidng chiing khoan, hoac lien quan den ty gia Mat khac My Latinh ciing phai dung hda nhiing ket qua tich ciic ma khu viic dat diidc vdi viec cac ddng tien ban dia phai difdng d^u vdi sii tang gia va lam phat de t r a n h bien ddng ve gia ca de dpa lam mat can ddi cac yeu to' kinh
te vi md
Hifdng tdi mdt My Latinh dn dinh, viing manh de lam tien de cho mdt khu viic thinh vifdng vdi ifdc md ve mdt ddng tien chung khu viic cdn c^n tdi sii nd liic va nhiing giai phap cu the ciia tiing qud'c gia trong nam tai chinh 2010 nay •
Tdi lieu tham khao:
1 Kinh te My Latinh se tang trifSng manh, http://www.vnep.org.vn
2 My Latinh trUdc tac dong ciia khiing hoang kinh te toan cau, BT Nhutng van de Chinh tri - Xa hoi, Hoc vien Chinh tri - Hanh chinh quoc gia Ho Chi Minh, so 3/2010
3 Lan gio mdi My Latinh, http://www.tinkinhte.com
4 Kinh te cac nifdc My Latinh va trien vong hop tac kinh te thifOng mai v6i Viet Nam, http://www.tinkinhte.'Com
5 Kinh te My Latinh 2009 va trien vong
2010, http://www.tinkinhte.com
6 Cong bo' chi so' phat trien kinh te xa hoi My Latinh, http/thitruongvietnam.com