vdi hau bet cac nUdc trong khu viic D6ng Nam A ndi rieng va cac niidc Dong A ndi chung, cac gdi kfch thich kinh te chi md'i phan nao (hay chi mdi cd vai trd) bfl dap lai dflde nhflng[r]
Trang 1^
KHUNG HOANG KINH TE TOAN CAU
VA TAG DONG CUA NO
•
T 6 | CAC NEN KINH TE DONG NAM A
NGUYEN HUY HOANG*
Dien bien va tac dgng cua cudc
khung hoang kinh te toan can
nam 2008 cflc ky phflc tap va khd dfl
doan trfldc ddng thai cua nd Ke tfl khi nd
ra cudc khung hoang, nen kinh te the gidi
ndi chung va khu vfle Ddng Nam A ndi
rieng da rdi vao vdng suy thoai tram
trgng San xuat, xu;\'t khau va ddu tfl
giam manh, thi tritdng tieu dflng bi co
hep, that nghiep tang nhanh, can can
thfldng mai cua cac nflde ndi chung rdi
vao tinh trang tham hut ldn, li;im phat
tang cao va cac chi sd kinh td gan day cho
tha'y chua cd dau hieu cua sfl phuc hdi
Bat chap cac nd liic cua cac chfnh phfl
cflng nhfl cac td chflc tai chinh qud'c te
nbu IMF va World Bank trong viec thiic
hien cac giai phap va chinh sach kinh te
nhdm ddi phd vdi cucjc khung hoang, nen
kinh te the gidi van chUa cd dau hieu
khd'i sdc Tuy nhien, trong thdi gian gan
day da xua't hien mdt so'da'u hieu tfch cUc
nhung cac chuyen gia kinh te cho rang dd
la cac da'u hieu hdi phuc gia va viec cudc
khung hoang kinh te da cham day hay
chua van la van de chfla cd cau tra ldi De
cung cap them cfl lieu ve cudc khung
hoang hien nay va tac ddng cua nd den cac nen kinh te ASEAN, bai nghien nay tap trung phan tich dien bien va tac dgng cua cudc khung hoang kinh te loan cau nam 2008 dd'i vdi mdt sd'nen kinh te'chu chdt Ddng A va Ddng Nam A Tren cd sd
dd, chflng tdi cung xem xet va phan tfch nhflng chudng trinh va giai phap flng phd cua cac td chflc tai chfnh qud'c te cflng nhfl cua cac chfnh phu trong khu vUc va
cd dUa ra mgt sd' gdi y cho Viet Nam Ca'u trflc cua bao cao nhfl sau Khung hoang kinh te toan cdu va tac ddng cua nd den cac nen kinh te trong khu viic dflde phan tich va xem x(3t trong phan I Phan
II se tap trung phan tfch nhflng giai phap, chfnh sach va ehfldng trinh flng phd cua cac chinh phu va hieu qua cua nd
L KHUNG HOANG KINH TE T O A N
CAU VA T A C DONG CUA NO DEN CAC NEN KINH TE DONG NAM A
Cudc khung hoang kinh te toan cau nam 2008 ma diem xua't phat la tfl khiing hoang tin dung nha dat d My, da cd anh hudng tieu cflc den cac nen kinh le Ddng
A - Ddng Nam A Khung hoang da lam
TS Nguyin Huy Hoang, Vien nghien cflu Dong Nam A
Trang 2cho thi tritdng ld;in can suy giam m a n h ,
va vi the nd da tac dgng t n i c tiep den cac
niidc Ddng A ndi c h u n g va ASEAN ndi
rieng Vdi nhflng gi da dien ra chflng ta
tha'y r a n g cac nflde cd mflc t h u n h a p t r u n g
b i n h t r o n g k h u vfle nhfl T h a i L a n ,
Malaixia, Inddnexia va Philippin da doi
phd vdi cudc k h u n g h o a n g k h a tdt vi hg da
cd dUdc bai hgc tfl cudc k h u n g hoang kinb
te chau A 1997-1998 va da cd sfl chuan bi
td't hdn nhfl: can b a n g can can t h a n h tdan
dflde cung c6', du trfl nggai te dUdc t a n g
cUdng va ganh n a n g cac mdn nd cua chfnh
p h u da giam di nhieu T h e m vao dd, cd che
t u van cua be thd'ng ngan h a n g tai cac
nflde nay da dflde cai thien rd ret va thi
trfldng tai chinh cua hg da hgi n h a p tfldng
d6'i sau rong vao thj trfldng tai chinh tdan
cau nen kha n a n g tfl flng phd va kiem soiit
cac cfl sdc cd the xay ra ddi vdi nen kinh te
da dUdc t a n g len d a n g ke Tuy nhien, cac
nflde cd mflc thu n h a p thiip trong khu viic
nhu Campuchia, Lao va Myiinmar hi tac
ddng Idn hdn vi thi trUdng tai chfnh cua
hg cdn kem p h a t trien va mflc do hgi nhiij)
cua hg vfio lhi Irifdng tai chinh the gidi
cdn d mflc t h a p
Them vao dd, sfl bdi n h a p mgt each
sau, rdng vao thi trfldng san x u a t tdan cau
cua cac nflde trong khu vfle la nguyen
n h a n chu yeu ddn tdi sii suy giam dang ke
cua xuat k h a u va dau tit qud'c le Sau
nhieu nain d a t mflc t a n g tritdng kha cao,
t a n g tritdng binh q u a n trong k h u vfle
trong n a m 2008 va quy 1 n a m 2009 da
giam nifanh, va k h a n a n g sii suy giam van
cdn tiep tuc trong thdi gian tdi Mac dfl
vay, cac nUdc dang p h a t trien Dong va
Ddng Nam A van tiep luc duy tri diidc tdc
do tang trfldng cao hdn cac khu viic khac
va tiep tiic ddng gdp dang ke vao tang
trUdng ciia nen kinh te the gidi
Thd nhdt, toe do tdng trUdng fzinh
te trong khu vitc dd gidm manh; Trong
bd'i canh suy giam cua thi trUdng loan cau, td'e do t a n g trUdng kinh te cua cac nUdc trong k h u viic da giam m a n h bat chap nhflng chinh sach va cac giai phap
n g a n ngfla tac dgng cfla cuoc khflng cua cac chinh phu Cac nen kinb te c6ng nghiep hda mdi (NIEs) Ddng A da rdi vao vdng suy thoai vdi s a n IflcSng san xua't giam tdi 25% trong quy 4 nam 2008 Trong ngi bg cac nflde ASEAN, san luOng san xua't trong quy 4 n a m 2008 suy giam miinh tai Malaixia va Thai Lan va c6 tang nhe d Inddnexia va Philippin Do tac dgng cua cudc k h u n g hoang, tdc do t a n g trudng kinh te cua k h u vUc Dong A giam xu6ng cdn 5.7% trong quy 4 n a m 2008 da keo tdc
do tang trUdng ca n a m 2008 xudng c6n 8% tfl mflc 11.5% ciia n a m 2007 Trong khi
dd, t6'c do t a n g triidng c h u n g cua cac nUdc ASEAN giam xudng chi hdn 3% trong quy 4/2008 so vdi mflc binh q u a n hdn 6% trong cac quy trfldc dd da lam cho td'e do tang tritdng binh q u a n cua ca n a m 2008 giam
xu6'ng cdn 5.4% so vdi 6.5% cua nam 2007
Nhflng nudc phu thucjc nhieu vao xua't
k h a u thi td'e do t a n g trUdng kinb te hi suy giam n h a n h va sau hdn Dac biet, nhflng nitdc cd quy md nen kinh te nhd, ngheo
n h u C a m p u c h i a va Lao thi mflc do suy giam n h a n h va m a n h hdn nhieu so vdi cac nflde cd mflc t h u n h a p t r u n g binh trong
k h u vfle nhfl T h a i L a n , Malaixia, Inddnexia va Philippin
Thd hai, sdn xudt cdng nghiep gidm; Vdi sfl giam m a n h cua cau tren thi
trUdng the gidi va trong nUdc, san Iflcing san xua't cdng nghiep cua cac nitdc Ddng
va Dong N a m A trong n a m 2008 giam tdi 6.5% so vdi n a m 2007 Sfl suy giam manh nha't la d cac nflde N I E s va cac nitdc cd
mflc t h u nhap trung binh phu thudc nhieu
Trang 334 Nghien cdu Dong Nam A 7/2009
vao x u a t k h a u , t r o n g dd cac n g a n h s a n
x u a t bi tac ddng m a n h n h a t la n g a n h che
t a o dien tif, det may
Thd ba, xud^t khdu cua cdc nUdc
trong khu vUc gidm manh: Vi sii giam
m a n h cua n h u cau t r e n t h i trfldng t h e gidi
da lam giam s a n Ifldng s a n xua't cdng
nghiep va x u a t k h a u cua cac nu'dc trong
k h u viic San xua't t r o n g t h a n g 1/2009
giiim m a n h d D a i Loan (40%) va
C a m p u c h i a (30%)) do n h u cau d thi tru'dng
N h a t Ban, My va EU giam m a n h T h u d n g
mai ndi vflng cflng da giam m a n h Cac
nflde p h u thugc n a n g ne vao x u a t k h a u
h a n g d i e n tit n h i i cac nUdc N I E s ,
Philippin va Malaixia bi a n h hfldng n a n g
nha't, va sau dd la cac nUdc x u a t k h a u
h a n g tieu dflng nhfl Inddnexia, Lao va
Malaixia T r o n g so' cac nflde ASEAN,
C a m p u c h i a hi a n h hfldng n a n g ne n h a t vi
nflde nay p h u thugc nhieu vao x u a t k h a u
h a n g det may (chiem 80% gia tri xua't
k h a u cua ca nUdc) khi thi trUdng EU, My
ddi vdi m a t h a n g nay s u t giam q u a nitinh
Thd tu, ddu til nitdc ngodi vdo khu
vUc gidm nhanh; Do a n h hudng cua
k h u n g hoang kinh te loan cau, ddng dau
t u qud'c te vao cac niidc Ddng va Ddng
N a m A giam m a n h trong n a m 2008 va
quy I n a m 2009 Sau khi d a t dinh vao
n a m 2007, ddng v6n vao cac niidc D6ng A
va khu viic Thai Binh During b a t dau cd
xu hudng chflng lai trong n a m 2008 triidc
khi ngudn vdn ra cd xu h u d n g cao hdn
ngudn vein vao lai Malaixia va cac nUdc
N I E s Ddng A trong quy 2 n a m 2008 va tai
Inddnexia vao giai dgan cudi n a m 2008
Ddi vdi tdan k h u viic Ddng A va Thai Binh
Dfldng, ddng chu chuyen vd'n da giam
m a n h tfl 360 ty USD trong n a m 2007
xudng cdn 150 ty U S D vao n a m 2008
Thd ndm, thdt nghiep trong khu
vxic tdng cao; Do sii co lai cua thi trUdng
toan cau d a n d e n viec t h u h e p s a n xua't trong k h u viic va k e t q u a la t h a t nghiep cd
xu h u d n g t a n g m a n h t a i cac nUdc Ddng
N a m A va k h u vfle Ddng A - T h a i Binh Dfldng Theo sd' lieu cua N g a n h a n g The gidi, do a n h hUdng cua cudc k h u n g hoang,
cd tdi 23,6 trieu ngUdi t a i k h u viic Ddng
A - T h a i Binh Dudng m a t viec lam trong
n a m 2008, va r i e n g t r o n g t h a n g 1/2009 cd
t h e m 1 trieu ngUd'i t r o n g k h u viic m a t viec lam Sd' lieu cho tha'y, sd' ngUdi m a t viec lam tai C a m p u c h i a tfl t h a n g 9/2008 den bet t h a n g 1/2009 len tdi 500.000 ngUdi, chiem tdi 17%o sd'lUdng lao dgng ciia nflde nay d T h a i Lan, theo so'lieu chfnh thflc ve dieu t r a 141 cdng ty ldn d T h a i L a n thi cd tdi 26% sd'cdng ty da ngflng h g a t dgng san xuat va theo dii d o a n cua n g a n h a n g
t r u n g Udng T h a i L a n , sd ngUdi t h a t nghiep tai T h a i L a n cd t h e len tdi 1,1 trieu ngUdi trong quy II n a m 2009 neu nhfl san
x u a t hdi phuc c h a m
II GIAI P H A P , C H I N H S A C H , CAC
C H U d N G T R I N H U N G P H O CUA c A C
CHINH P H U VA T A C D O N G BJJdC
D A U CUA NO
1 Cac giai p h a p v a c h i n h s a c h dfng phd
Sfl hdi phuc cua n e n k i n h te k h u vfle se
p h u thugc n h i e u vao c h a t lfldng cua cac chinh sach dflde thflc hien va nd liic cua cac chinh p h u trong viec dUdng d a u vdi cuoc k h u n g hoang Dflng trfldc sfl suy thoai ciia n e n k i n h te tdan cau ndi c h u n g
va cua cac n e n k i n h te trong k h u viic ndi
rieng, gid'ng nhu h a u h e t cac nudc va vflng
lanh thd khac t r e n t h e gidi, tfl cac nitdc
p h a t trien den cac nflde d a n g p h a t trien
va chain p h a t t r i e n , cac nflde ASEAN da
p h a n flng mdt each day q u y e t t a m ddi vdi cudc k h u n g h o a n g n h a m giam n h e sU tac
Trang 4ddng cua nd va tfio cho nen kinh te khu
vfle cd dUdc cd sd vflng chac de cd the trd
lai vdi giai dgan t a n g tritdng n h a n h va on
dinh Vdi nhflng muc tieu cu the dd, chinh
p h u cac nflde ASEAN da dfla ra nhflng
giai p h a p va chfnh sach kfch thfch kinh te
n h a m kich cau trong nitdc, tao tien de cho
t a n g trfldng kinh te Nen kinh te'ldn n h a t
ASEAN, Inddnexia hdm 73,3 nghin ty
Rupiah (tfldng dUdng hdn 6 ty dd la My)
vao thj trUdng thdng qua cac chUdng trinh
hd trd ve t h u e Chinh p h u Thai Lan hien
nay dang cd chUdng trinh thflc hien gdi
kich thich k m h te thfl 2 dUdc dUa ra tai
cudc hgp ngi cac chinh phu Thai hdi t h a n g
3/2009 s a u gdi kfch thich kinh te lan thfl
nha't tri gia 3,35 ty dd la dflde dita ra vao
t h a n g 1/2009 vdi mirc tieu chfnh la hd trO
tien m a t cho nhflng ngfldi thu n h a p tha'p,
giam thud, xay dUng cd che giao due cd
ban khdng m a t tien va bao cap cho cac
n g a n h nhU giao thdng va cac djch vu xa
bgi kbiic Chinh phu Xingapo cd gdi kich
thich kinh te tri gni 2,3 ty dd la Xingapo
(tfldng dfldng 1.51 ty dd la My) dflde thflc
hien tfl t h a n g 11/2008 Cdn d Maliiixia,
trong t h a n g 3/2009 chinh phu nu'dc nay da
thflc hien mdt ehfldng t r i n h kich thich
kinh te tri gia 2,7 ty dd la My sau khi da
thflc hien gdi kich cdu tri gia 2 ty dd la My
vao t h a n g 11/2008 Cdn d Philippin, chfnh
phu niidc nay da cd cbfldng trinh kfch
thich kinh te trgn gdi tri gia 6,8 ty dd la
My n h a m t a n g dau lit vao linh vUc cd sd
ha tdng va an sinh xa hdi vdi muc tieu
khdng chi ti^io ra nhieu cd hdi viec lam hdn
ma cdn lap ke hgach x u a t k h a u nhieu lao
dgng hdn nfla Campuchia, nflde hi anh
hfldng n a n g ne n h a t cua cudc k h u n g
hoang cd chUdng trinh t a n g gap ddi ngan
Siich nam 2009 len con sd' udc chflng
khoang 1 ty dd la My de dau tU vao he
thd'ng giao thdng, t h u y Ic.ti va cd sd ha
tang Cd mdt diem c h u n g la hau bet cac gdi kich thfch kinh te dUdc cac chfnh phu
ap dung deu t a p t r u n g vao cac bien p h a p kfch cau, giam t h u e va xay diing cd sd ha tang Tuy nhien, mflc do flu tien cho tflng giai p h a p cd k h a c n h a u d mdi nudc
Ngoai cac gdi kich thfch kinh te duOc
ap dirng n h a m giflp nen kinh te' vudt qua giai doan thoai trao thi cac chfnh phfl cflng da dfla ra cac chfnh sach tai chfnh tien te n h a m tim giai p h a p cho k h u n g hoang Cu the, h a u bet cac chinh phu trong khu viic deu ddng Igat cat giam lai sua't ngan h a n g va sit d u n g cac bien phap
n h a m duy tri k h a n a n g t h a n h khoan va sfl dn dinh cua cac k h o a n tin dung
Ngoai nhflng gdi kich thfch kinh te cflng n h u cac chfnh sach tai chinh tien te dUa ra n h a m giam bdt tac dgng xau cua cuoc k h u n g hoiing, hien nay cdn xuat hien dau hieu cua chu nghia bao hg tai cac nen kinh te trong khu vUc va cac chinh phu coi day n h u la mdt giai p h a p "ddng cita"
n h a m bi^n che "tac dgng tfl ben ngoai" Vi
du, de b a n che n h a p k h a u , hien nay chinh phu Inddnexia yeu cau 5 m a t h a n g n h u may mac, giay da, dd ehdi, thuc pham va giai k h a t huge p h a i thdng qua 5 cita khau
de t r a n h hien tUdng bien lan T r u n g Qud'c cflng da dfla r a nhflng quy dinh h a n che
n h a p k h a u mdi thdng qua viec t h a t chat cac tieu c h u a n a n toan ve sinh thtic p h a m trong viec n h a p k h a u thiic p h a m va cd chfnh sach hd trd dd'i vdi n g a n h cdng nghiep d td Cdn Malaixia thi ca'm viec sit dung lao dgng nflde ngoai de bao toan viec lam cho lao ddng trong nflde Tuy nhien nhflng da'u hieu bao trd nay d cac nflde Ddng A va Ddng N a m A chfla la gi so vdi nhflng dgng t h a i bao hg dflde thflc hien tai cac nflde p h a t trien va cac nflde dang p h a t trien d cac k h u vUc k h a c ma itdc tinh tdng
Trang 536 Nghien cdu Dong Nam A 7/2009
sd'tien hd trd cho nganh san xua't 6 16 tren
loan the gidi len tdi 45 ti dd la, trong dd 43
ti dd la la khdan tien ho trd nganh cdng
nghiep d td cua cac nu'dc phat trien
2 Nhufng t a c d o n g btf6c d a u cua cac
goi kich t h i c h k i n h te va ciia cac giai
p h a p , c h i n h sach
Theo nhflng dang gia bfldc dau cua
ngan hang The gidi, cac gdi kich thfch kinh
te thiic sU chUa cd tac ddng ldn den sii hdi
phuc kinh te cua cac nUdc trong khu viic
ndi chung va cua ca the gidi ndi rieng Do!
vdi hau bet cac nUdc trong khu viic D6ng
Nam A ndi rieng va cac niidc Dong A ndi
chung, cac gdi kfch thich kinh te chi md'i
phan nao (hay chi mdi cd vai trd) bfl dap
lai dflde nhflng tac ddng tieu ciic cua cudc
khung hdang ddi vdi tang trudng kinh te
Theo du doan cua Ngan hang the gidi diia
vao he sd sU ban che tUdng ddi cua cac gdi
kich thfch kinh te ciia cac chfnh phu tren
cd sd tac ddng cua nd ddi vdi tang trudng
kinh te thi mflc do tac dgng cua cac gdi
kich thich kinh te chung cho ca khu viic la:
sti tac ddng cua viec cat giam thue ^d'l vdi
tang trUdng GDP chi d mflc 0,3%-0,8%; tac
dgng dau tfl chfnh phu vao cac muc tieu
kinh te chu yeu nhu nang cap cd sd ha
tang d vao khoang 3%)-1,6%), va tac ddng
ciia gdi hd trd cua chfnh phu cho cac hd gia
dinh cd mflc thu nhap tha'p la tfl 0,3-1.0%
Viec sif dung he sd'nay trong viec danh gia
tac dgng cua cac gdi kich thich kinh te dd'i
vdi tang trUdng kinh te cho tha'y sU tac
ddng dang chi d mflc vfla phai, chfla cd
chuyen bien nhieu
Ddi vdi cac bien phap ngan ban va
nhflng flu tien trong dai ban, bao cao cua
ngan hang the gidi cho tha'y, vdi nhflng
nitdc ma giai quyet td't nhflng thach thflc
trong ngdn ban trong luc van tap trung
nhflng flu tien dai ban cho cac miic tieu tang trUdng thi hau nhu cd kha nang phuc hdi tdc do tang trUdng kinh tetd't hdn Mgt s6'bien phap dudc cho la cd hieu qua trong
ca ngan ban va dai ban bao gdm cac khdan dau tU nham giam thieu nhflng ban che ciia cd sd ha tang va ha tang xa hdi cflng nhfl ddu tfl nham dn dinh mdi tru'dng va phat trien ngudn nhan Iflc va cac nd Iflc hien dai hda cac ehfldng trinh bao trd xa hdi
3 Di^ b a o trien vong hoi phuc cua
k i n h te toan cau va khu vxic
Bat chap nhflng ehfldng trinh kfch thfch kinh te cua cac nUdc phat trien va mdt so thi trUdng dang phat trien khac, thitdng mai the gidi van tren da suy giam manh Sd lieu ve san xua't cdng nghiep va viec lam cho thay rang cac hgat dgng san xua't kinh doanh cua nen kinh te tdan cau van tiep tuc suy giam trong ma'y thang ddu nam 2009 Vao thang 3/2009, Quy tien te Qud'c te (IMF) trong ban bao cao cudi thang 4/2009 mdt Ian nfla dii bao tang trUdng kinh te the gidi trong nam
2009 cd the se la -1,3% (trudc dd IMF da
du bao tang trUdng kinh te the gidi nam
2009 la 0,5%) tfl mflc 3,1% cita nam 2008, mflc suy giam ldn nha't trong vdng 60 nam qua Cac nUdc phat trien trai qua mgt cudc suy thoai manh, trung binh tfl 3,5 den -3% trong nam 2009 Cac nen kinh te dang phat trien cd mflc suy giam nhe hdn, vdi mflc tang trfldng vao khdang 1,5-2% trong nam 2009 so vdi mflc binh quan 6,1%) cua nam 2008 Bfle tranh kinh te the gidi cd da'u hieu xa'u di khien cac nha dau tU rut
ra mdt lUdng ldn vdn dau tU vao thi trUdng vang Trong phien hgp dien ra vao 2 ngay 25-26/4/2009 cua nhdm G20 sau cudc hgp thang 11 nam 2008, lanh dao cac nUdc
Trang 6thucx- nhdm nay keu ggi cac nUdc t r a n h
tbilc bicn chu Intcing chfl nghia biio hg
trong kinh te va da tho'ng n h a t tang cfldng
tiem Iflc tai chfnh cho IMF va mgt s6'dinh
che lai chinh cho vay khac tren the gidi vdi
so tien hd trd len tdi 1,1 nghin ty USD
Theo d a n h gia cua Ngan h a n g the gidi,
kinb te the gidi n a m 2009 se giam tdi 2,1%
Ddi vdi cac nUdc ASEAN, tinh hinh van
chUa may s a n g sua NhU chflng ta da biet,
cac nUdc ASEAN ddng mgt vai tro r a t
q u a n trgng trong day c h u y e n - c u n g flng
h a n g hda tdan cau va cd cau kinh te cua
cac nflde ASEAN cho t h a y mflc do md cita
cua cac nen kinh te nay la r a t cao Trong
nhflng nam gan day, k h u vUc xuat khau
cua cac nUdc ASEAN ddng mgt vai trd bet
sfle quan trgng trong t a n g trfldng kinh te
cua loan khu vUc, chiem tdi 75%o GDP cua
loan khu vilc Vi the, bat chap nhflng gdi
kich thich kinh te do cac chinh phu diia ra,
cac nen kinh te Ddng Nam A van chua cd
dau hieu hdi phuc vi khi nen kinh te the
gidi, dac biet la hai thi tritdng chfnh cua
h a n g hda Ddng N a m A la My va EU, riit it
cd da'u hieu hdi phuc trong thdi gian tdi
Them vao dd, thi t n i d n g kinh te toan cau
vdn chita cd dau hieu khdi sac va cac dfl
bao cua IMF cflng n h u cua ngan hang the
gidi van cho tha'y mdt bfle t r a n h am dam
cua nen kinh te toan cau, dtic biet la cac
nen kinh te p h a t trien Theo dii bao cua
ngan h a n g p h a t trien chau A (ADB), kinb
te cac nudc ASEAN dudc dii bao se tang
tritdng chi d mflc 3.5%o trong n a m 2009 so
vdi mflc 5,4% cua nam 2008 trong dd Thai
Lan, Malaixia va C a m p u c h i a diidc dfl bac
la cd mflc t a n g trfldng tha'p n h a t (-2,7%
cho Thai Lan va -1,0%) cho Campuchia va
Miilaixiii) Trong khi dd, kinh te Lao va
Inddnexia dUdc dii bao la cd mflc tang
trfldng d a n g an tfldng (5% cho Lao va 3.4
% cho Inddnexia) Tuy nhiim, vi dii'u hieu
hdi phuc cua nen kinh te tdan cau cdn chUa ro r a n g nen bien nay ADB cho rang mflc t a n g trfldng kinb te k h u viic cd the tha'p bdn mflc dii bao ban dau
Tuy nhien, trong k h u n g canh kinb te the gidi tiep tuc am dam ma bang chflng la gia vang the gidi tiep tuc chao diio cflng vdi .sfl ba't dn cua thi trudng nang lu'cjng toan cau thi thi trudng chflng khoan khu vUc van chUa cd dau hieu khdi sac Cac nha dau tu khoHg con kien n h a n vdi nhflng thay ddi lien tuc cua thi trudng va da rflt ra mgt Ifldng Idn vd'n de dau tU vao thi tritdng vang Day cd the coi la dau hieu tieu cflc cho cac nen kinh te khu viic va the gidi./
TAI L I E U THAM KHAO
1 Ajay Chhibber (2008), Can Asia Emerge
Stronger, Far Eastern Economic Review, Dec
2998, 171, 10; hitemational Module, p45
2 CHS Report for Congre.ss (2008), The US
Financial Crisis: The Global Dimension with Implication for US Policy, November 18, 2008
3 David Pilling (2009), From Boom to Gloom,
The Financial Time Limited, March 2009
4 East-West Center (2008), Shifting Currents
of US and Asia Pacific Economics, Resources, and Security, Publication Sales
Office, Senior Policy Seminar 2008
5 World Bank (2009), Battling the Forces of
Global Recession - East Asia and Pacific
Updates - April 2009, Worid Bank
6 www.chinaview.cn {2009), ASEAN Countries
Fighting Financial Cri.'sis, April 9, 2009
7.h ttp://\vww.imforg/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/
01/index.htm, World Economic Outlook, 2009
8.h tlp://wvw.imf.org/externaiypubs/ftygfsr/2009/
01/index.htm, Global Financial Stability
Report: Responding to the Financial Crisis and Measuring Systematic Risk