Thong tin trong Bang 1 cho thay GCC la mot to chuc lien ket khu vuc rat chat che, dat dugc trinh dp lien ket kha cao vdi 3 the che dieu hanh chu chot la Hpi dong Toi cao, Hpi ddng Bp[r]
Trang 1HOI DONG HOfP TAC VUNG VINH:
• • •
TAM NHIN VA CAC VAN DE PHAT TRIEN
Bid Nhgt Quang*
1 Sti \iitic v e Hoi dong Htip tac
Vung Vjnh
Hpi dong Hgp tae Vung Vjnh (GCC) co ten
gpi ddy du la Hpi dong Hgp tac cac quoc gia
Arab vung Vjnh dugc thanh lap ngay
25/5/1981 Trong suot qua trinh phat trien, hpi
nhap khu vuc tu thdi diem do den nay, GCC
da dat dugc nhieu thanh tuu noi bat, gop phan
tao dung cho Trung Dong hinh anh cua cac
quoc gia Arab phat trien, thjnb vugng, co tam
anh hudng sau rgng tdi mgi mat ddi song kinh
te, chinh trj khu vuc va the gidi Sau khi ban
Hien chuang Hpi dong Hgp tac Vung vjnh
dugc ky ket cung thdi diem vdi tuyen bo thanh
lap GCC, nhom lien ket nay da nhanh chong
tao dung co che dieu phoi va hgp tac bet sue
hieu qua giira 6 quoc gia thanh vien la Lien
hiep cac Tieu Vuang quoc Arab Thong nhat
(UAEs), Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait va
Saudi Arabia
v l mat dja ly, khu virc vung Vjnh Ba Tu
bao gdm rat nhieu quoc gia nhung khong phai
' Tien sT, Vien Nghien ciru Chau Phi va Trung Dong
quoc gia nao cdng dugc ket nap vao GCC va dien hinh la Iran, Iraq hien van khong phai la thanh vien cua GCC du rang day hoan toan co the dugc coi la hai quoc gia vung Vjnh Thue
te thi Iraq da nhieu ldn bay to nguyen vpng dugc tham gia vao GCC nhung qua trinh ket nap quoc gia nay da nhieu ldn bj gian doan, dac biet la sau sir kien Iraq xam luge Kuwait nam 1990 va can thiep quan sir cua My nham lap do chinh phu Iraq nam 2003 Mac du van con rat nhieu van de can giai quyet trong quan
he giiira Iraq vdi GCC nhung trong nam 2007 cac quoc gia thanh vien GCC da tuyen b6 rdng
hp ung hp Van ban Thoa thudn Qudc tl vdi Iraq Van ban ndy md dudng cho viec thue ddy hpi nhap kinh te giua cac qu6c gia khu vuc vung Vjnh va tao dilu kien tilp tuc tiln trinh gia nhap GCC cua Iraq Ngodi trudng hgp cua Iraq, mot quoc gia khac la Yemen cung mong muon dugc gia nhap GCC va tren thirc tl, qua trinh dam phan ra nhap cua Yemen da dugc xuc tien tir nhieu nam nay vdi cac kit qua dugc cho la kha tich cue Tuy nhien, tiln trinh
ra nhap GCC cua Yemen dien ra tuong ddi cham va cac ben lien quan du kiln quoc gia
Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRU1\G BOi^G so 05 (45) thang 5/2009
Trang 2Hgi dong hdp tac vCinq Vinh Bui Nhat Quang
nay chi co the trd thanh thanh vien chinh thue
cua GCC vao nam 2016 Hien nay, Yemen da
tham du vao kha nhilu cac boat dong va ca
cdu lien kit cua GCC nhu Ca quan Tieu chudn
boa, Co quan Tu van Cong nghiep vimg Vjnh,
Ca quan K I toan va Kiim loan GCC, Hpi
dong cac Bp trudng Y tl GCC Van phong Giao due va Dao tao GCC.vv Trong cac ea cau lien ket nay nhirng qu\ djnh hien hanh cho phep Yemen co day du cae quyen lgi va nghia vu giong nhu cac thanh vien ehinh thue khac cua GCC
Bang 1 Thong tin chung ve GCC Nam thanh lap: 1981
Thanh vien chinh thue
Tru sd chinh
UAH, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar Kuwait va Saudi Arabia Thanh pho Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Tong thu ky (ke tir 2002): ; Ong Abdul-Rahman bin Hamad Al-Attiyah
Muc tieu: - Tang cudng hpi nhap giira cac thanh vien
- Phat trien cong nghiep, nong nghiep, khoa hpc- ky thuat xay dung cac trung tam nghien cuu khoa hpc
- Hgp tac kinh te, thuang mai, dau tu Cac the che chu chot Hgi dong Toi cao (thanh vien la nguyen thu eae quoc gia GCC)
Hpi dong Bp trudng Ban Tong thu ky
Nguon: Tong hap thong tin cua tdc gid
Thong tin trong Bang 1 cho thay GCC la
mot to chuc lien ket khu vuc rat chat che, dat
dugc trinh dp lien ket kha cao vdi 3 the che
dieu hanh chu chot la Hpi dong Toi cao, Hpi
ddng Bp trudng (bao gom Ngoai trudng eae
quoc gia thanh vien) va Ban Tong thu ky
Thue tl hoat dong cua GCC cho thdy Ban
T6ng thu ky chinh la ca quan dieu hanh
thudng true cua to chuc khu vuc nay vdi su
quan ly cua mot Tong Thu ky va 3 Pho Tong
thu ky chju trach nhiem dieu phoi ve cac van
dl chinh tri, tdi chinh va quan sir Hoat dong
hgp tac cua cac thanh vien GCC dugc danh gia
la CO hieu qua cao, dat dugc nhieu thanh tuu
dang kl gop phan tich cue va thdc ddy phat
triln kinh tl - xa hpi cung nhu duy tri boa
binh, 6n djnh va an ninh trong khu virc Trung
Dong
2 r a m nhin va cac van de phat trien
Vdi CO che boat dong chu yeu ciia GCC la dua vao eae djnh hudng chung do Hpi dong Toi cao thong qua tai cae ky hpp thudng nien, hau het cac ITnh vue, eae chii de phat trien noi bat cua quoc gia thanh vien deu duge ban bae, thao luan va phoi hgp ehinh sach de thue hien C) cap dp thap ban, Hpi dong cae Bp trudng nhu Bp Ngoai giao, Quoc phong, Npi vu, Bp Dau Ida va Tai ehinh da to chuc eae eupe hpp thudng ky hoac hpp bat thudng de hudng tdi giai quyet cac van de phat trien cua ca khoi GCC Tinh din thdi dilm hien nay (2009) GCC da CO nhumg thanh cong nhat djnh trong xay dung eo cau kinh te phat trien, hien dai \ a dua GCC vao nhom eae quoc gia c6 tiem luc kinh te - tai chinh viimg manh vdi GDP binh quan dau ngudi thupe loai cao nhat the gidi Cae chi so quoc gia chu chot eua GCC duge minh boa trong Bang 2
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAI PHI & TRICMG B6>IG so 05 (45) thang 5/2009
Trang 3Bui Nhat Quang Hgi dong hdp tac vung Vjnh
Bang 2 Cac chi so chii chot cda GCC nam 2008
Ten quoc gia
Bahrain
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Saudi Arabia
UAEs
Dan so (ngudi)
779 000
1 098 000
3 443 000
2 595 000
24 897 00
4 764 000
Dien tich (km')
716
11437
17818
309 500
2 240 000
83 600
GDP (PPP t\
USD 26,489 95,13 140.9 67.7 600,5 186.15
GDP/dau ngudi (PPP
USD)
33 988
86 669
40 943
26 094
24 119
39 076
Ngudn: World Economic Outlook Database, IMF October 2008
So lieu cua Bang 2 cho thay nhom 6 quoc
gia GCC tinh den nam 2008 da the hien dugc
vj the cua mot nhom sire manh kinh te vdi quy
mo GDP khoang ban 1 ngan ty USD va dan so
gan 40 trieu ngudi Co cau kinh te cua GCC
dua chu yeu vao cong nghiep khai thae dau khi
va nen djch vu c6 trinh dp phat trien cao Hau
het cac quoc gia deu dang no luc hien dai hoa
CO cau kinh te de giam bdt su phu thupe vao
khai thae dau khi, dong thdi tang cudng sue
canh tranh, kha nang hpi nhap quoc te Mae du
vay GCC trong suot.qua trinh phat trien eua
minh da va dang gap phai nhieu van de phat
trien can giai quyet doi hoi mot tam nhin dai
ban ve rat nhieu ITnh vuc kinh te chinh trj
-xa hpi khac nhau Trudc mat co the ke ra mot
so van de dang chu y ve tam nhin va ea hpi
phat trien cua GCC nhu sau:
- Vdn di ddi ngogi: Chinh sach doi ngoai
luon la npi dung trpng tam trong chuomg trinh
hgp tae cua GCC va cho den nay, 6 quoc gia
thanh vien GCC vln dang thue hien chinh sach
d6i ngoai trung lap, khong lien ket vdi eae
bien phap doi ngoai on boa dugc ap dung tren
thue tl Mae du vay van de doi ngoai trong
tdm nhin den nam 2020 eho thay GCC thue sir
phai CO dieu ehinh do boi canh mdi cua the
gidi va khu vue dang co nhieu bien dong
manh Xu hudng chung la GCC phai tham gia
manh me ban nira vao giai quyet hoac the hien
quan diem ve cae van de quoc te cung nhu cac
su kien trong khu vuc Trung Dong Thue te doi hoi GCC tang cudng kha nang doi ngoai vdi tu each mot ben doi tac duy nhat, dong thdi phat trien quan be da phuang co trpng tam
la dat tdi sir can bang giira cac trung tam quyen lire quoc te Hien nay chinh sach doi ngoai chung cua GCC van dang dugc hoan thien va dat tdi muc dp la nhom cac quoc gia nay luon the hien quan diem thong nhat, phat huy sue manh chung cua ca khoi trong quan he quoc te Cac dong thai ngoai giao da phan anh dugc sir gan ket va hgp tae chae che eua ea 6 thanh vien GCC
- Ddng tien chung cua GCC: Day ciing la
mot hudng phat trien dugc uu tien cua GCC trong giai doan tu nay den 2010 Thue te thi cac quoc gia thanh vien GCC da khdi dong dam phan ve GCC ngay tir nam 2006, coi dong tien chung va viec thiet lap Lien minh Tien te GCC (gpi tat la GMU) la each thue hgp ly de cai thien hieu qua kinh te cua ca khoi lien ket
Ke hoach la mot ngan hang trung uomg sieu quoc gia se dugc thanh lap de quan ly ve lai suat, muc tieu lam phat va ty gia hoi doai danh nghia GMU se tao dieu kien cho su luu chuyen tu do cua lao dong von \ a hang boa gitira cac quoc gia thanh vien Cac tiln trien gan day nhat cho thdy GCC da thdng nhdt dugc ve nhumg tieu chi hpi nhap de dua vao su dung dong tien chung vao nam 2010 Mac dii
CO nhieu y kieu bay to quan ngai \ e su thieu
20 Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAI PHI & TRli:\G BOIVG so 05 (45) thang 5/2009
Trang 4Hgi ddng hdp tac vung V i n h BCii N h a t Q u a n g
kinh nghiem phoi hgp trong viec tao dung
GMU nhung c6 the noi day se la dong thai gin
kit, hpi nhap thue sir n6i bat cua GCC trong
tuomg lai gan sap tdi
- GCC, Trung Ddng vd cudc khung hoang
kinh te todn cdu: Dien bien eua eupe khung
hoang kinh te giai doan hien nay van cho thdy
nhieu dong thai phuc tap, kho du doan va eae
tac dong tieu cue cua no tdi nen kinh te the
gidi van dang rat tram trpng So lieu trong bao
cao thang 4/2009 cua IMF udc tinh long gia tri
eae tai san tai chinh toan cau da giam di
khoang 4 ngan ty USD va khoang hai phan ba
so thiet hai nay la thuoc ve cac ngan hang,
doanh nghiep bao hiem, quy huu tri va cae quy
ddu CO Mac du phan Idn so thiet hai nay la do
nen kinh te My ganh chju nhung cae quoc
gia Trung Dong ma dac biet la nhom GCC
eung phai duong dau vdi nhirng ton that tai
chinh hit ^uc Idn do mot bp phan quan trpng
Bieu do 1 Bien dong ciia thj triro-ng chirng
thang 4/2009
nguon tai chinh thang du tu xuat khau dau eua hp duge dau tu vao My \ a eae thi trudng thupe EU
Co nhieu y kien danh gia khae nhau \ e tae dong eua khung hoang kinh te loan cau tdi GCC nhumg co mot diem nhan duge neu ra: Tae dong true tiep eua eupe khung hoang thue
ra khong qua manh Tac dong gian tiep mdi dang luu y: eupe khung hoang toan eau lam eho gia dau giam manh va hau het cae quoc gia GCC vdi tu each nhirng nha xuat khau dau hang dau da ehiu ton that dang ke gan vdi su sai leeh eua dong tai ehinh \ a doi chieu eua dong von luu ehuyen vao va ra khoi eae thi trudng nay Su bien dong eua dong tien va sue ep tam ly gan \di eupe khung hoang da gay ra mire giam sut ky luc tir 30% den 60% ciia thi trudng ehung khoan eae quoe gia GCC (Bieu do 1)
khoan cac nu-oc GCC tir thang 12/ 2008 den
Dan vi: %
U A E 2 Kuvv.iit B a h r a i n S.UKii A i a i - i a Oatat
-'J.ij
- 7 0
Ngudn: World Economic Outlook IMF, April 2009
Tu thue trang cua khu vue Trung Dong
trong xu thi suy thoai kinh t l toan eau va dira
tren cac dien biln 4 thang dau nam 2009 hau
hit eae bao cao danh gia tinh hinh dlu dua ra
du bao khong mdy tich cue ve trien vpng eua
eae nen kinh te Trung Dong trong do co GCC trong trung va ngan ban Mac du \ a \ diem sang eua khu vuc nay van la kha nang tai ehinh viimg chae dua tren ca sd nguon du irCr ngoai te rat ldn, duge tich luy trong mot thdi
Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAI PHI & TRU-^G Bd>G so 05 (45) thang 5/2009 21
Trang 5Bui Nhat Quang Hgi ddng hdp tac vung Vjnh
gian dai Day cung la ca sd dua ra cac du bao nam 2009 2010, du toe dp tang trudng da thap cho rang toan bp cac quoc gia GCC vdn dam hon rat nhieu so vdi hai nam 2007 va 2008 bao duge muc tang trudng duomg trong cac (Bieu do 2)
Bieu do 2 Tang trirdng GDP tai Trung Dong
Dan vi: %
8 n
c
A •
•)
n
-—•—Trung Dong -•-GCC
Mashreq
6.7
•=S.i_
6.2
6 9
^ X 3 y)
3.7
_ _ ^ l 3.5
1 1
2.2
2007
6.3 6.2 6.7
2008
5.9 5.6 6.9
2009
2.5 2.2 3.4
2010
3.5 3.7 3.1
Ngudn: Tdng hap tir ca sd dii lieu ciia IMF
3 Mot vai nhan djnh
Qua tim hieu ve Hpi dong Hgp tae
vung Vinh (GCC) va cac dong thai phat trien
eua khoi nay trong giai doan hien nay, hoan
loan CO the khang djnh day la mot khdi lien ket
ldn ciia khu vuc GCC da dat dugc nhieu thanh
cong trong qua trinh phat trien va dat dugc
trinh dp phat trien rat cao, tao dung ca cau
kinh te hien dai, dong thdi phat huy tot anh
hudng cua ca khoi tren pham vi khu vuc va
loan cau Dong thai tang cudng hpi nhap va
phat trien cua GCC dugc the hien qua eae npi
dung dang chu y nhu xay dung chinh sdch ddi
ngogi chung, tao lap Lien minh Tien te va cac
no luc cua GCC de ddi phd vdi cudc khimg
hoang kinh te toan cau Xem xet cac yeu to
nay dlu eho thay trien vpng tuomg doi lae quan
cua GCC vl dai ban va tham chi nhieu danh
gia da cho rang nen kinh te GCC se nhanh
chong phuc hoi tdc dp tang trudng ngay trong
nam 2009 dam bao toe dp vugt trpi so vdi cae nen kinh te phat trien khac cua the gidi Dieu nay gop phan dua GCC trd thanh diem sang tai Trung Dong va la bai hpc dang tham khao cho nhieu khoi lien ket quoc te khac
Cltd thich:
' Van ban Thoa thuan Quoc te vdi Iraq duge eae quoc gia GCC thong qua trong cupc hpp thugng dinh tai thanh pho Sharm El-Sheikh (Ai Cap) tir 4/5 din 5/5/2007
Tai lieu tham Idiao
1 World Economic Outlook Database,
IMF, October 2009
2 World Economic Outlook, IMF, April
2009
3 GCC single currency Spectator.co.uk
I.October 2008
4 Website chinh www.gcc.gnu.org
thue cua GCC:
22 Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & T R O G BO:\'G so 05 (45) thang 5/2009