cd the nhin nhan va danh gia dugc cac md thirc phat trien ndng nghiep cua ciic nudc Iren the gidi de lua chgn cho rieng minh budng di phii hgp nbal. Cugc each manh Xanh dien ra thanh[r]
Trang 1CO HOI VA THACH THLTC TRONG HOP TAG PHAT TRIEN
NONG NGHIEP 6 CHAU PHI HAI THAP NIEN OAU THE KY XXI
Trdn Thi Lan Hirang^
1 Bdi canh va xu hu'O'ng quoc te m a i
Bdi canh qudc te tir nay den nam 2020 tao
ra nhieu thai ca dan xen vdi nhieu thach
thirc cho phat trien ndng nghiep d eac nudc
chau Phi Nhtrng xu the tac ddng trye tiep
den viec hgp tac ndng nghiep d mdl sd nudc
chau Phi trong thdi gian tdi la:
' Thu nhdt, loan cau boa kinh te tiep luc lan
rdng ldi cudn hau bet cae nudc tren the gidi
tham gia
Toan eau boa vira lam tang sire ep canh
tranh, vira lam tang tinh phu Ihudc lan nhau
gitra cac nudc Nhd ed sy lan rdng cua loan
cau hoa, quan be da phuang, quan be song
phuang gitra cac qudc gia ngay cang sau
rdng ban trong tat ca cae van de kinb te,
chinh trj xa bdi bao ve mdi irudng Toan
clu boa md rdng trong thd ky XXI khien cac
cdng ty xuyen quoc gia khdng ngimg cau
tnic lai, binh tbanb cac tap doiin khdng Id cbi
Thac si, Vi^n Nghien ciru Chau Phi va Irung Dong
phdi nhieu linh vye kinb te The gidi se hinh thanh cac sieu cdng ly va thuang mai dien tu
se trd Ihanh mdt siin chai nidi Khoang each giau ngheo giira cac qudc gia ngiiy cimg gia tang
Toan cau boa Ian nhanh ca ve chieu rdng
va chieu siiu khien nen san xuai the gidi mang linh chat loan cau Tu do hoa ve thuang mai dau lu, tai chinh liep luc dugc
md rdng Hdi nhap kinb te va vai trd cua cac
Id chirc qudc fe trd ihimb mdl ndi dung cua loan cau boa Hdi nhap nhan manh den tinh cbii ddng tham gia ciia cac nudc vao qua trinh loan cau Toan cau boa kinh le va hgp tac qudc le la mdl qua trinh vira hgp lac, vira canh tranh Xu the khu vuc boa Irong bdi canh loan cau ciing se gia lang manh ban Su canh tranh thuong mai gitia cac khdi id chirc khu \uc ngay cang gia lang Xu ihe loan cau boa kinb te vdi Idc do nhanh den chdng mat dang lam liing ea bdi lua chgn cho cac nudc, nhung cung ddi boi cac nudc phai them gia
Tap chi nghien cdu CII.%1 IMIl A T I l l A G MO.>IC so 07 (47) thang 7/2009
Trang 2Tran Thj Lan Huong Ca bdi va thach thuc trong hgp tac
hdi nhap khu vuc, coi dd la budc di ca ban
de hdi nhap loan cau va tranh nhiing rui ro
khi hdi nhap ra loan the gidi
Dac irung ca ban cua xu hudng loan cau
hoa trong thdi gian tdi la nen kinh te ciia cac
nudc tren the gidi ngay cang phu Ihudc vao
nhau nhieu hon, lien kel chat che vdi nhau
hon tren nhieu cap do: song phuang, da
phuang, lieu khu \uc, khu vuc, chau luc va
lien chau luc Trong xu the khach quan nav",
cac nudc hdi nhap sau khdng cdn each nao
khae la phai nhanh chdng boa nhap \ ao quy
dao phat trien chung de khdng bj gat ra ngoai
ddng phat trien ciia the gidi Nhirng nudc hdi
nhap sau nhu chau Phi hau hel la nhihig
nudc ngheo vii hg cd ca hdi nhan dugc su
giiip dd lir cac nudc cdng nghiep, dac biel ve
vdn, cdng nghe, dao lao nhan luc, cac khoan
vay va tai Irg hap dan Tuy nhien, vdi Irinh
do phat trien kinh te thap cac nudc bdi nhap
sau se gap nhieu rui ro, de bi tut hau neu
khdng niim bal va phai hu\ nhirng ca hdi do
the gidi mang lai
Thu hai, khoa hgc cdng nghe nga> cang
ddng vai trd quan trgng trong nen kinh le
toim cau
Khoa hgc va cdng nghe, dac biet la cdng
nghe thdng lin \'a cdng nghe sinh hgc, liep
tue cd nhimg budc nhav' vgt, ngay cimg Ira
ihimh luc lugng san xuat true liep, Ihiic
da\-su phat tridn kinh te tri thirc, lam chuven
dich nhanh chdng ca cau kinh le vii bien ddi
siiu sic cac ITnh vuc ddi sdng xa hdi Tri thirc
va so hiru tri tue ngii\- cimg cd \ai trd quan
trgng Trinh do lam chii thdng tin, tri thirc cd
\ nghia qu\dt dinh sy phat Irien Chu trinh
luan cbu\ en win, ddi mdi cdng nghe va san
pham nga\ cang dugc riit ngan Cac dieu kien kinh doanh tren thi trudng the gidi ludn thav ddi khien cac doanh nghiep phai nhanh nhav nam bat \a thich nghi Cac nudc dang phat irien dang cd ca hdi thu hep khoang each vdi cac nudc phat Irien, ddng thcri dirng irudc nguv ca lui hau xa hem neu khdng tranh thu dugc ca hdi \ii khiic phuc nhirng veu kem de vuan len
Su xucil hien cua nen kinh le tri thirc tren the gidi budc cac nudc phai nd luc cai each
ca cau de lao dii cho su phat trien kinh le irong giai doan ldi Viec cai each ca cau dd ddi hoi cac nudc chau Phi phai cd nhirng each nhin \ii each liim kbac de cd the tiep nhan hieu qua sir chuyen giao cdng nghe lir ben ngoai Nen kinh te tri thirc giiip cac nudc kem phat irien hon nhu chau Phi cd du dieu kien de cd the lua chgn irng dung nhti'ng cdng nghe phii hgp va hien dai nhd phuang thirc nhap khau cdng nghe de phat Irien kinh
le Xu hudng phiit Irien ndng nghiep ciia the gidi trong hai thap nien tdi se dua vao tinh niing ddng ve cdng nghe bai Irong luang lai the gidi se khdng cdn nhieu dat mdi de phat Irien vii nhirng khoan trg ciip cho ndng nghiep cimg se phai giam di theo dung Id trinh cam ket cua WTO Nhieu nudc cdng nghiep phat trien hien nay dang lap trung dau tu phat trien khoa hgc cdng nghe de irng dung cho ndng nghiep dap irng nhu eau luong thuc trong nudc cung nhu dimh cho xudl khau Mdl sd cdng ly xuyen qudc gia ciing se lap trung nghien ciru cdng nghe irong ndng nghiep, thay vi viec chi chii trgng den phat trien \a kiem soat thj iruimg luang thuc nhu trudc dav Nhd khoa hoc edns
10 Tap chi nghien cdu C'll.Vl IMII A llll.XG UONG so 07 (47) thang 7/2009
Trang 3Ca hdi va thach thirc trong hgp tac Tran Thi Lan Huon"
nghe tren the gidi lien luc phat trien qua
trinh phat trien kinh id cua chau Phi cd the
dugc rut ngan dya tren su phat hu\ ndi luc
va khai thac ed bieu qua cac ngudn luc lir
ben ngoai Tuy nhien, xu thd chuyen ddi ca
cau kinb te the gidi trong the ky XXI cung
mang den nhieu thach thirc cho cac nudc
chiiu Phi La nhirng nudc thieu trim Irgng
vdn, cdng nghe, thj irudng, ca so ha ling,
irong khi phan img chinh sach cua chinh pbii
ihudng cham va kem hieu qua, cac nudc
chau Phi cd the phai liep nhan cac cdng nghe
lac hau hoae khdng pbii hgp, diin den hieu
qua san xuat kem, chat lugng hang boa thap
Vdi ngudn lao ddng re, ky nang ihap san cd
ngudn liii nguyen thien nhien, dang ral can
vdn va cdng nghe cac nudc chau Phi de cd
kha nang phai tiep nhan nhtrng cdng nghe
lac hau mirc do gay d nhiem cao va khdng
dap irng duge nhu cau phat trien kinh le
Thit ba cue dien the gidi se cd su ca cau
lai tuang quan luc lugng gitra cac qudc gia
va quan be qudc le
Vai trd ciia cac qudc gia trong viec hinh
thanh cue dien the gidi la khdng gidng nhau
Irong giai doan 2011-2020 vai trd lo ldn
quan trgng va mang linh chat quvet dinh
thudc ve cac nudc ldn cac cirdng qudc cac
trung tiim quyen luc dac biel la My Trung
Qudc Nhat Ban Nga EU, An D o
My liep luc gitr \ai trd sieu cutrng duv
nhat dim diiu the gidi ve cac mat kinh te
khoa hgc - cdng nghe quiin su chinh trj va
\an hoa Mac dii bien nay My dang lam
vao nidt cugc khung hoang kinh te tram
trgng nhung du bao Irong vai nam tdi sire
manh kinh te - chinh iri ciia My tiep luc
dugc khdi phuc \ii liep luc cd nhung anh huang ldn den cac nudc kbac tren the gidi trong mgi ITnh \ uc
Trung Qudc dugc du bao se tra thanh mdt nen kinb le ldn nbal tren the gidi \ao nam
2020 Cho ddn nam 2007 GDP cua Trung
Qudc da dat 3470 \\ USD tang 16 liin so \di
nam 1978 Vdi tdc do lang GDP nhanh nhu vay kinb le Trung Qudc dang \ uon len hang thir 4 sau My Nhat Ban \ii Dii'c Hien lai kinh le Trung Qudc chiem 5% san lugng the gidi va ddng gdp 10% cho lang truang kinh
le loan cau Theo nhieu du bao khae nhau nen kinh te Trung Qudc se ldn hem nhieu so vdi nen kinb le Dire viio niim 2010 va \ugl nen kinh le Nbal Ban \iio mini 2020' Diic biel vdi chien luge tham nhap thi irucTng the
gidi bang bang hoa Made in China gia re \ ii
chien luge hgp tac Nam - Nam rieng ed cua minh i r u n g Qudc dang lii ddi ihu diing kieng ne cua cic nude ldn \ ii cd nhirng anh huo'ng quan trgng den cue dien the gidi mdi Nhirng nutVc ldn khae nhu El' Nhat Ban
se tiep luc la mdl trong nhung trung tam quyen luc riil ldn iren ibe gidi cd sire manh chi phdi eac nidi quan he kinh te - chinh iri tren the gidi lir nav den niim 2020 Irong luang quan luc lugng sire manh cua mdi nudc lil rat khae nhau vira bd sung, vira canh tranh vdi nhau \ i su phat trien chung eua loan the gidi EU tuv thua kem My ve liem nang quan su, nhung lai cd liem nang \ e liii chinh \ a edng nghe ral ldn, dac biel lii sire manh cua ddng lien chung Euro cd the siinh ngang \ d i My Nhat Ban \iin tiep luc giir \i tri la mdl cuimg qudc kinh te tren the gidi vdi GDP hien lai dat hon 4300 l\ L'SD, bimu
Tap chi nghien cdu C'll.il l»lli A TKl \ G « 6 \ G so 07 (47) thang 7/2009 11
Trang 4Tran Thj Lan Huong Ca hdi \ a thach thiie trong hgp tac
7,l°/'o GDP ciia loan the gidi Ciing vdi dd
mdt sd nudc kbac nhu Nga An Do dang
dugc du bao la mdt Irong cudng qudc mdi
tren the gidi linh theo quy md sire manh
kinh te chinh trj va quan sy Cac nudc ldn
nay se tiep luc vira hgp tac thoa hiep dan
xep lgi ich vira dau iranh kiem che ngan
chan lan nhau de ciing phat trien Bdi canh
dd vira lao ca hdi, vira la thach thirc cho
nbOng nudc nhd ban trong vide tim kidm cac
chien luge phat trien va hgp tac tir nay den
nam 2020
Thu tu, the gidi phai tap trung giai quyel
van de an ninh luang thyc loan cau trong vai
thap ky ldi
Td chirc Ndng Luong ciia Lien hiep qudc
(EAO) da dua ra nbtmg canh bao ve khiing
hoang Ihieu luang thuc trong hai thap ky tdi
Neu trong thap ky 90 ciia the ky XX binh
quan luong thyc cua the gidi la 327
kg/ngudi/nam) thi den dau the ky XXI binh
quan luang thyc ciia the gidi chi cdn 320
kg/ngudi/nam do idc do lang Irudng ve
luong thuc giam tir 2,3%/nani xudng chi cdn
1.8%/nam vao nhung nam cudi the ky XX
Trong khi dd dan sd the gidi dang cd xu
budng tang len nhanh chdng lam cho linh
hinh an ninh luong thye the gidi trd nen bat
dn tinh den nam 2020 Theo dy bao ciia Lien
hiep qudc dan sd the gidi vao nam 2020 se
la khoang 7,5 ty ngudi so vdi 6 ty ngudi ciia
nam 2000" Khoang 95% mirc lang dan sd
thudc ve cac nudc dang phat trien trong dd
mirc tang cao nhat se thudc ve chau Phi va chau A Trong khi dd dat dai ndng nghiep dang cd xu hudng suy giam do qua trinh dd thj boa va nhieu nguyen nhan kbac ddng thdi lai nguyen nudc dang ngav cang khan biem Dan sd tang nhanh se khien san xuat luong thuc khdng dii de dap irng nhu cau va
du bao den nam 2020 sd dan thieu luong thuc se la khoang 1.3 ty ngudi (hien nay la khoang 854 trieu ngirdi) Du bao den nam
2020 nhu cau nhap khau luang thuc ciia cac nudc dang phat trien se tang gap ddi so vdi bien nay, trong dd chau A se dat mirc tang nhap khau luong thyc gap 4 lan (chu yeu lii nhu cau cua Trung Qudc va An Do) va chau Phi can Xahara se dat mirc tang nhap khau luong thyc khoang 150% Lien hiep qudc du doan den nam 2020 My se la nudc cung cap khoang 60% san lugng ngu cdc nhap khau cho cac nudc dang phat trien EU cung cap klioang 16% va Oxtraylia cung cap khoang 10% Nhung nudc chiem phan Idn nhu cau tang len ve bang ndng nghiep dd la Trung Qudc An Do Nbal Ban Du linb vao nam
2020 Tmng Qudc se chiem 27% mirc lang nhu cau san lugng ngu cdc tren the gidi tiep theo la An Do chiem 12%, cac nudc chau A khae chiem 14% chau Phi can Xahara chiem
11%, chau My Latinh chidm 1 \% Tay A va
Bac Phi chiem 10% va cac nudc cdng nghiep phai trien chiem 15%) Nhu cau ve cac loai san pham ndng nghiep kbac ngoai ngu cdc a cac nudc dang phat trien cung cd xu hirdng lang rat nhanh
Tap ehi nghien cdu €n\V PHI A TRIAG noXG so 07 (47) thang 7/2009
Trang 5Ca hdi va thaeh thire trong hgp lac Tran Thj Lan Huong
Bang 1 Nhu cau nhiip k h i u luong thue ciia T r u n g Quoc vao mini 2020
Tieu diing binh quan dau ngucri
(kg/ngu'iri) ^ ^
Tieu diing ngii cdc true tifp
Tieu diing Immg thuc da qua chi biin ;
Nhu cau nhap khau (trieu tan)
Tieu dimg true tiep vd qua chi biin
Ngii cdc ddnh cho chdn nudi
Hgt gidng
LiJa gao 107,7 66,5 208,6 250,9 46,3 11,5
1 mi
99,4
51.5"
47.9 174,8 142,5 21,6 10,7
Liia hat to
53,2 23,1 "
30.1 224,5 75,0 138.2 11,3
Tong 258,3 141.1 117.1 607,9 368.3 206.1 33,5
Ngudn: World Bank Data and Staff Estimate: Trong World Bank fI99^j: China 2020
Dac biet la d Trung Qudc, ciing vdi su nhu chau Phi Theo du bao cua Lien hiep phat trien manh me ve kinh te va mirc do dd qudc (2001), mirc lang dan sd nhanh, boat thj boa dan sd Trung Qudc dy bao ciing se ddng kinb te manh miin va thieu ihdn luang lang rat nhanh vao nam 2020, vi the nhu clu thuc da va dang day phan ldn tre em chau nhap khau ngii coc cua Trung Qudc se rit Phi vao tinh trang suy dinh dudng Sd Ire em Idn Trong lien trinh cdng nghiep boa va
bien dai boa dat nudc, sd lugng ndng dan
Trung Qudc bj mat rugng dat nga> mdl
nhieu Nhieu quan diem mdi day eiia Trung
Qudc da de cap den "cugc each mang rugng
dat lan thir ba"'' nham Ira lai quyen sd buu
rugng dat cho ndng dan Tuy nhien cugc each
mang lan thir ba mdi dang dugc tranh luan a
Trung Qudc va ngudi dan Trung Qudc \'iin
tiep luc mat rugng dat va thieu thdn luong
thyc trong qua trinh cdng nghiep boa Mdi
nam, Trung Qudc ed them 20 trieu lao ddng
mdi can viec lam, nbimg tren ihuc le xii hdi
chi cd ihe giai quyel dugc khoang 12 trieu
viec lam mdi trong mdl nam Van de
nav-dang dai ra thach Ihirc nghiem trgng cho
i mng Quoc Irong luang lai va khien nhu cau
san xuat va nhap khau luang ihuc cua Trung
Qudc viio nam 2020 la ldn chua timg cd
Sy thidu hut luang thyc dang khien the
gidi phai lap trung giai quyet van de luang
thuc loan cau, dac biel la d cac nudc ngheo
suy dinh dudng a chau Phi can Xahara vao nam 2020 cd the len ldi 49 trieu ngirdi so vdi con sd 33 trieu ngudi cua niim 1997 Neu cac nudc chau Phi khdng du ngudn \dn \ii tiem luc de nhap khau luang thuc, phiu trien ma rdng ndng nghiep, thi cac \iin de niiy se tra nen tram trgng trong vai Ihap ky tdi va anh hirdng den tinh hinh dn dinh xa hdi vii an ninh luang thuc loan the gidi Cac td chirc da phuang nhu EAO WB IME UNCTAD, UN \ii cac nudc cdng nghiep phai trien dang nd luc de ra nhiTng ke hoach dai ban nham ban che nhtrng bat dn va rui ro do mat
an ninh luang thuc the gidi mang lai trong thdi gian tdi, Irong dd cd cac du an ban che djeh benh quan ly ngudn nudc ludi lieu, nghien cim ndng nghiep phat trien cdng nghe sinh bgc Day la mdt trong nhirng ca hdi de chau Phi tan dung nhung lgi the ve ngudn luc nhu tai nguyen ndng nghiep lao ddng dat dai thj trucmg Tuy nhien, se la bat lgi cho chau luc Den neu su hd trg cua cdng ddng qudc te cdn qua il oi, khdng ddng
Tgp chi nghien ciru CII \ l IMII A TIllAG HONG so 07 (47) thang 7/2009 13
Trang 6Tran Thj Lan Huong Co hdi va ihacb thirc trong hgp tac
bd hoae khdng hieu qua Dieu na>' se day
chau Phi vao linh trang ddi ngheo trien mien
va lut hau xa so vdi the gidi ben ngoai
Thic ndm the gidi phai nd lyc giai quyel
nhtrng hau qua ciia cude khiing hoang kinh
le loan cau xay ra trong nam 2008
Theo danh gia cua cac nha lanh dao
APEC ngiiy 23/11/2008 tai Hdi nghj thugng
dinh APEC ihudng nien, thi cugc khiing
hoang kinb te loan cau da lam cho lat ca cac
nen kinh le tren the gidi bj thiet hai khoang
tren 30.000 ty USD, tire la gin gip ddi GDP
ciia My, irong dd EU, Nbal Ban va My la
nhung nudc bi thiel hai nang ne nhai Hon
the, cugc khung hoang kinh le the gidi lan
niiy lac ddng den ca nhti'ng nudc ngheo,
trong dd IME xae djnb cd 26 nudc dang phat
trien bi ton thuang nhieu nhat bao gdm ca
cac nudc chau Phi Cac nudc dang phat trien
dang can bd trg khoang 140 ty LJSD de ngan
chan linh trang ddi ngheo, mat an ninh luong
thuc va that nghiep Theo thdng ke cua Ngan
himg The gidi, khung hoang kinh le loan cau
da diiy 46 trieu ngucTi a cac nudc dang phat
trien xudng dudi mirc ngheo ddi
Cho den nay, loan the gidi dang rat nd lyc
tim giai phap de thoat khdi cugc khiing
hoang tram trgng niiy Vai trd cua cac Id
chirc quoc Id nhu IMF, OECD, G7, G20
dang dugc cung cd vii cac id chirc nav dang
xem xel vii thuc hien cac gdi giai phap de
giiip thd gidi iboat khdi khung hoang Chinh
sach kich cau ciing dang dugc mdt loai nudc
ihu'c bien, ke ca nhimg nudc giau nhiit den
eac nudc dang phat irien Viin cdn cd nhieu
tranh ciii \d thdi diem phuc hdi sau khung
hoane cua nen kinh te the gidi Phai lac quan
thi cho rang, kinh te the gidi se sut giam den day trong nua dau nam 2009 \a se bat dau phuc hdi trong nua cudi nam 2009 ciing lam la den nam 2010 the gidi se thoat khoi khiing boang va suv Iboai Phai bi quan ihi cho rang the gidi se rai \ao mdl eudc su\ ihoai keo dai mdl tinh hinh nhu Nbal Ban ihap ky 1990 neu khdng phai la mdl cugc dai su> Ihoai lan thii' hai gidng nhu giai doan 1929-1933
Cho dil \di nhung danh gia bi quan bay lac quan cugc khung hoang kinh le loan cau lan nav' cung anli hirdng ldi boat ddng kinh
te cua cac nudc chau Phi Cac nha tai trg se lap trung giai quyet cac van de trong nudc
hg vi vay nhirng gdi ciru trg nhimg chuang trinh trg giiip hgp lac vdi chau Phi cd kha nang bi dinh ire hoae dii'ng lai Chau Phi se gap phai nhieu lac ddng biil lgi do cugc khung hoang lai chinh loan cau gav' ra
2 C c hoi va thach thirc trong hcyp
tac phat trien nong nghiep & mot so
nu'6'c chau Phi
* Ca hpi
Dua tren bdi canh qudc le lir nay den nam
2020 cd the vach ra mdl sd ca hdi phat trien
va hgp lac ndng nghiep d chau Phi den nam
2020 la nhu sau:
Thir nhdt ndng nghiep chau Phi se dugc
hudng lgi tir su phu thudc lan nhau va sy hd trg dan dat ciia cac nudc di trude trong nhirng thap nien dau the ky XXI Nhtrng du bao mdi day ve quyen luc va sire manh qudc gia deu cho rang sire manh cua mdi qudc gia deu thdng qua kel qua cua lac ddng qua lai giira cac qudc gia trong bdi canh toiin ciiu
Tap chi nghien ciru IIIAI IMIi A TIllAG » d \ G so 07 (47) thang 7/2009
Trang 7Ca bdi va thach thirc trong hgp tac Tran Thi Lan Huon"
boa Gregory F.Treverton trong cuon
"Measuring National Power" cho ring cd til
thay 8 ddng lyc chi phdi sire manh qudc gia
trong dd cd ca van de ndng nghiep (bang 2)
Nhu vay cd the thiy, chau Phi - dii cho cd
nen kinh le ndng nghiep lac hau nhung eung liem chira irong minh sire manh cua mdl nen ndng nghiep chua dugc khai thac triet dd dil dai rdng ldn dan sd ddng va lai ngu\en dau
md chua duac khai thac
Bang 2 Cac dong lue ehi phoi sue manh quoc gia Chinh trj xa hdi trong nudc
_ Dan sd Ndng nghiep Cdng nghe
Chinh Iri qudc le Kinh te Nang lugng Moi trudntz
Nguon: Gregory F Treverton - Seth G.Jones (2005): Measuring National Power Rand p.4: Theo sach
chuyen khao: Kinh te va chinh tri the giai: Van de va xu hu-ong tiin trien: NXB Lao Dpng 2008, trang 30 Trong mdt the gidi ngay cang phu thudc
va lien ket vdi nhau tren nhieu cap do: song
phuong, da phuang, tieu khu vye, chau luc,
lien chau luc va toan cau chau Phi se dugc
budng lgi tir sy giiip dd ciia cac nudc giau,
dac biet la ve vdn, cdng nghe va dao lao
ngudn nhan lyc Ddng vdn dau tu nudc
ngoai trong nhirng nam qua khdng ngirng dd
vao chau Phi cbii yeu lii nham tan dung
ngudn lao ddng va tai nguyen re va hudng
cac ngudn vdn nay vao muc dich thuang
mai Nhd cd vdn dau tu ngay cang lang cua
the gidi ben ngoai, chau Phi dang tan dung
lgi the nay de phat trien nganh cdng nghiep
khai khoang ndng nghiep phat irien ca sa
ha lang va md rdng mang ludi thuong mai
Ben canh dd bdi canh qudc te mdi cung se
tao thuan Igi cho chau Phi tiep nhan cac
khoan vay va tai trg bap dan de phat trien
kinh te trong nudc, trong dd cd ndng nghiep
WB, IMF, AlDB va cac nudc giau nhu My
Nhat Ban EU dang thiet ke ra cac chuang
trinh phat trien cua lirng nudc timg chau luc
de tang cudng vien trg- Doi lai eac nudc
giau va cac the che qudc te ddi bdi cac nudc
dang phat tridn phai tu do boa \ a ma cua nen
kinh te cua minh cho ddng vdn - hang boa ra vao ty do Cac td chirc qudc le va cac nudc giau se lao mgi dieu kien thuan lgi cho cac nude di sau tham gia vao qua trinh hdi nhap ciing cai each, hgp tac giai quyet cac van de kinb le - xa bdi cua limg nudc vi lgi ich chung cua khu vuc va loiin the gidi Vdi xu ibe nay chau Phi se dugc huang lgi biing viec luiin thu cac dieu kien diit ra de cd dieu kien sir dung ngudn vdn edng nghe thj Irudng de phai trien nen ndng nghiep cua chau luc minh
Thir hai chau Phi cd dieu kien de hgc hoi
kinh nghiem thanh cdng va thiit bai trong phat trien ndng nghiep cua cae khu virc khae
Ca hdi cua eac nudc chau Phi hien na> la
cd the nhin nhan va danh gia dugc cac md thirc phat trien ndng nghiep cua ciic nudc Iren the gidi de lua chgn cho rieng minh budng di phii hgp nbal Cugc each manh Xanh dien ra thanh cdng a chau A trong thap
kv 1960 sau dd nhan rdng ra chau My Latinh trong thdi gian liep dd dang lii nhtrng bai bgc thiel thyc ddi \ di chau Phi ngii> nav
la ca hdi de chau Phi nhin nhan lai minh de
Tap chi nghien edu m i l IMII A T I l l A G t » 0 \ C so 07 (47) thang 7/2009
Trang 8Tran Thj Lan Huong Ca bdi va thach thirc trong hgp tae
phat trien Trong sudt mdl thap ky qua san
xuat ndng nghiep cua chau Phi tuy khdng
tang deu tren loan khu vuc nhung ciing dat
dugc nhieu lien bd a mdt sd nudc va trong
mdl sd ITnh vye Trong hai ihap ky ldi san
xuai ndng nghiep d chau Phi chae chan se
lang nhanh ihdng qua viec md rdng dat dai
canh lac su dung hieu qua ngudn phan bdn
cai lien miia vu va quan ly san xuat ndng
nghiep tdt ban Ngay nay, san lugng luong
ihuc san xuat d chau Phi gan ngang bang vdi
san lugng luong Ihyc ciia cac nudc Ddng
Nam A Irong Ihap ky 1960 Dieu nay dat ra
mdl van de: Lieu chau Phi cd the hgc lap
dugc gi lir cugc each mang Xanh da limg
dien ra d chau A de cai thien nang suat lao
ddng ndng nghiep va xoa ddi giam ngheo
cho loan chau luc cua minh? Va de tra ldi
ciiu boi nay, bgc lap kinh nghiem thanh cdng
ciia cac nudc di trudc trong phat trien ndng
nghiep dang la mdt ca hdi ldn cho chau Phi
Ca hdi niiy cd the bien thanh bien thuc ddi
vdi chau Phi khi cac nudc na>' ap dung triel
de kinh nghiem Ihanh cdng cua chau luc
kbac, biel lua chgn nhiing hudng di thich hgp
de khai thac ngudn luc dat dai con ngudi, tan
dung cdng nghe va ngudn vdn tir ben ngoai
de phai trien ben vung Du bao trong luang
lai chau Phi se van dung tdt kinh nghiem
ciia the gidi de lang nhanh nang sual lao
ddng ndng nghiep Dieu nay ddi hdi phai cd
cac chinh sach phat trien thich hgp ban mirc
do dau tu cho dau viio ndng nghiep day du
ban, cu the la dau tu ve phan bdn, he thdng
ludi lieu, dudng sa, nude sach va he thdng
giao due
* Thdch thtic
Trong luong lai, ndng nghiep chau Phi cd the gap_phai nhimg thach thirc ca ban sau:
Mpt Id do ndng nghiep chau Phi dang
irong giai doan khung hoang nen nang luc tiep nhan du hd trg tir ben ngoai cdn yeu kem va nhung nd luc cai each ndng nghiep trong nudc cd the Ichdng di dimg budng lam cheeh di hieu qua hgp lac ndng nghiep d chau Phi
Khung hoang ndng nghiep a chau Phi
mang linh chat cue ky tram Irgng va cugc khung hoang na\' cd nhieu nguyen nhan kbac nhau Hau hel cac nudc chau Phi bien nav deu dang phai ddi mat vdi nguv ca mat an ninh luong ihyc Tuang lai cua ndng nghiep chau Phi neu nhin vao thuc trans hien nav thi qua that la khdng mang tinh chat sang sua Du bao den nam 2020 dan sd chau Phi tiep luc ra lang va dieu nay se dat ra nhieu sire ep ban ddi vdi ngudn lai nguyen lu nhien cimg nhu van de an ninh luong thuc cua loan chiiu luc Theo du bao ciia EAO vao nam 2020 chau Phi can Xahara se cd khoang 39 Irieu tre em lam vao canh thieu ddi va suy dinh dudng chiem 24% sd ire em loan chau Phi Nhiing du bao lac quan nhat thi cho rang sd Ire em suy dinh dudng va thieu ddi a chau Phi vao nam 2020 se lii 22 trieu tre em, Irong khi nhiing du bao bi quan nbal thi cho rang con sd nay len ldi 49 trieu ire em De giai quyet van de nay, chau Phi can phai lang lugng vdn diiu lu cho dudng
sa, nudc sach, giao due vii nghien cuu ndng nghiep len khoang 183 ty USD vao nam
2020 so vdi 76 ly USD nam 1997, chidm khoang 8-10% GDP Cimg vdi dd, cdng ddng qudc te ciing se tap trung giiip chiiu
16 Tap chi nghien cdu CII.Al IMII A I'ltlAG t>d\G so 07 (47) than*^ 7/2009
Trang 9Co hgi va ihach thirc trong hgp lac Tran Thj Lan Huong
Phi giai qu>et vin dd mat an ninh luang
ihuc va phat trien ndng nghiep
TUN nhien van de dat ra la nang lye tidp
nhan su hd trg cua cac nudc chau Phi Thuc
tien cho ibav' trong bai thap kv' qua the gidi
da khdng ngimg hd trg chau Phi phat trien
ndng nghiep nhung ndng nghiep chau Phi
van tiep luc rai vao khimg hoang Nhieu du
bao kbac nhau cho rang cac nude chau Phi
se phai ddi mat vdi nbtmg Ibach Ibirc ral ldn
trong hai thap ky tdi Cac bien phap phat
trien ndng nghiep Irong thdi gian qua khdng
mang lai tbanb cdng va bieu qua Tir gitra
thap ky 1960 san xuat luang thyc binh quan
dau ngudi giam 20%), nang sual lao ddng
ndng nghiep cue thap phat Irien kinb le bi
gian doan mat dn djnh chinh Irj irien mien
\ii mdi irudng dang bj buy hoai Thuc lien
phai irien kinb le d chau Phi thdi gian qua
cung giiip chiing la nhan dinh riing: Giai
quyel van de thieu ddi d chau Phi khdng cbi
dan thuan la van de phat trien cdng nghe
nidi Dieu trudc bet lii trinh do bgc van cua
ngudi dim chau Phi cdn qua thap chua the
liep thu nhung cdng nghe mdi, ddng thdi a
nhieu nudc sy dim xep xung dot chua dem
lai ket qua nhu mong mudn do vay da can
Ira nhung no lyc cua hgp lac ndng nghiep lir
thd gidi ben ngoai Hau bet nbimg ngirdi
dim thidu ddi la ngudi ngheo bg khdng du
lien de mua luang thuc ma hg can Ngudi
ndng dan ngheo khdng the cd du kha nang de
liep nhan nbtmg cdng nghe dit tien bai nhieu
ly do khiic nhau, irong dd cd ly do vi trinh do
hgc \an Mgt khi nang lyc tidp nhan cdng
nghe lien tic-n cua ngirdi dan chau Phi khdng
cd, tbi nhirng cdng nghe lien lien nbal mil the
gidi mudn hgp tiic \a trg giiip cho chau Phi
phat trien ndng nghiep se khdng mang lai tbanb cdng Ngudi dan se qua> \e nhiTng phuang thirc canh lac iruven thdng \dn
mang lai nang suat lao ddng thap cho hg \"\
vay, phat trien ndng nghiep ben \ ung a chau Phi can phai dua iren nhung \eu id liii nguven ihien nhien \a nang luc xa hdi \a dieu nay khdng phai mdl sdm mgt chieu ed the lam dugc d chau Phi
Hai Id nhung bien ddi biil lgi \ e thai tiel
dang dat ra nhieu ihacb thirc nghiem trgng trong hgp lac ndng nghiep a chau Phi
Chau Phi la chau luc il ga\ lac ddng den hien tugng thay ddi khi hau loan ciiu irong nhung nam gan dav', nhung lai lii khu \uc chiu su ldn thuong ldn nbal lir su lha> ddi thai tiel Ngudi la ndi nhieu den hien lugng Iriii diil dang ndng diin len \ ii nhirng uic dgng hat lgi eua no ddi \di loim the gidi Rieng vdi chau Phi, hien lugng Iriii diit dang diin ndng len dang dat ra sire ep riit ldn tnmg phat trien kinh te - xii hdi, dac biet la ddi \di viin de phat trien ndng nghiep Diic irung chung nhill cua ndng nghiep chau Phi hien nav- lil phiu trien nhd \'ao lugng mua hang nam Khi trai diit am diin len ciine ddng ngliTa vdi \iee lugng mua himg niim phuc vu
cho phat trien ndng nghiep a chiiu Phi se
giam nghiem trgng \ ii nhieu \ img diu dai ndng nghiep cua chau Phi se bi hien lugng sa mac boa Theo du bao eua AtDB (2008) thay ddi khi hau loan eiiu se lam mat di tir 5-10%/nam GDP cua cac nudc chau Phi C hi linb rieng cho viec cai thien ea sa ha tiing ngudn nudc do trai dai am dan len cimg se lieu ldn cua chiiu Phi tir 1-3 t\ LSI) nidi niim 20-40% vien trg nuoc ngoai \iio chiiu
Tap chi nghien ciru CHAI A rillXG HO\G so 07 (47) thang 7/2009 17
Trang 10Tran Thj Lan Huong Ca hdi \a ihach thirc trong hgp tac
Phi se sir dung de ban che nhtrng rui ro ve
thdi tiet trong dd bao gdm viec dau lu ca sd
ha lang va dau tu cho phat trien nganh ndng
nghiep Uy ban chau Phi (AC) nam 2008 cho
rang "vao nam 2020 se cd ihem khoang
75-250 trieu ngudi dan chau Phi gap khd khan
nghiem trgng vi khan hiem nudc""* Trong
khoang 100 nam qua nudc d cac sdng
Niger, hd Chad, sdng Senegal da giam
khoang 40-60% va trong vai ihap ky tdi
nudc cua cac con sdng nay liep tyc giam va
gay tac ddng tieu cue den san xuat ndng
nghiep Du bao ciia AC ciing cho rang vao
nam 2020 nang sual ndng nghiep d chau Phi
dua vao lugng mua ty nhien se giam
khoang 50%) va dieu nay khien khung
hoang ndng nghiep a chau Phi se cdn keo
dai neu khdng cd nhiing giai phap phat Irien
hgp ly
Cho den nay da cd rat nhieu sy hgp lac
trong ndi bd cac nudc chau Phi cting nhu tir
cdng ddng the gidi ben ngoai de giiip chau
Phi ban chd nhiing lac ddng lieu cyc cua ihdi
liet den phat trien ndng nghiep Dien binh
phai ke den eac chuong trinh "CliniDev
Africa" do Lien minh chau Phi (AU), Uy ban
kinh td cua Lien hiep qudc ve chau Phi
(ECA) va AtDB hgp tac nham hd trg phat
tridn be thdng canh bao sdm vii du bao ve
nhung bidn ddi ciia khi hau loan cau; hoae
Sang kidn Irdng rimg luu vye sdng Congo do
AU khdi xudng Tuv nhien nbtmg bien
ddng ihll thudng cua thdi liet la rat khd du
doan \a Irong tuong lai \di sy am len cua
khi bau loan clu se khien su hgp lac hd trg
trong phat iridn ndng nghiep d chau Phi gap
nhieu khd khan ban
Ba Id chau Phi tiep luc chju nhirng lac
ddng bat Igi tir sy bdp meo thuong mai trong cac vdng dam phan cua WTO Hdi nghj Doha cua WTO dien ra vao thang 11 nam
2002 trong bdi canh cd nhieu bat ddng quan diem giira cac nudc phat trien va cac nudc dang phai trien irong nhieu van de trong dd
cd van de ndng nghiep Ve van de ndng nghiep trong hdi nghj Doha, cac nudc dang phat trien yeu cau cac nudc phat trien phai
dd bo trg cap va bao bd ndng nghiep de tao dieu kien thuan lgi cho phat irien ndng nghiep a cac nudc dang phat trien Ddi lai cac nudc phat trien yeu cau eac nudc dang phat trien phai ma cira thj trudng cho hang boa cdng nghiep va dich vu cua cac nudc phai trien Sau gan 7 nam ke tir khi vdng dam phan Doha bat dau khdi ddng nhung bat ddng giira bai nhdm nudc tren van chua tim ra phuang thirc giai quyel hgp ly Cho den nay cae nudc phat trien van lang cudng bao bd ndng nghiep cua hg bang nhung bien phap nhu trg cap xuat khau hd trg san xuat
ap dung cae hang riio phi Ihue quan va dieu nay dem den nhu'ng lac ddng lieu cue ddi vdi cac nudc dang phat trien
Nhirng bat ddng trong cac vdng dam phan Doha ke lir nam 2002 den nay dem lai nhieu khd khan cho sy phat trien ndng nghiep cua cac nudc chau Phi Cho den nay, cac nudc phat trien van thyc hien chinh sach bao hd ndng nghiep rat cao Tdng sd lien trg cap ndng nghiep ciia 30 nudc OECD tang tir 182
ty USD nam 1995 len 280 ly USD nam
1997 315 ly USD nam 2001 vii 318 ty USD nam 2002 My va EU trong thap ky 1990 da trg cap nhieu bon tir 9-10 ty USD so vdi thap
ky trudc dd Trg cap ndng nghiep chiem idi
Tap chi nghien ciru CHAI Pill A TIllAG l»0>G so 07 (47) thang 7/2009