quan tuong tu tdng thdng ve su thdng nhat dan tdc trong tuong lai, han gan vet thuang trong qua khur va tien len phia trudc: "Nam 2010 dang den vai chimg ta, chung ta cdn xay dun[r]
Trang 1CHiNH TRI CHAU PHI 2009
VA ANH HU'dNG 0 6 l VOI SU' PHAT TRI^N
KINH T^ XA H 6 |
Kieu Thanh Nga^
1 Tinh hinh chinh tri chau Phi
nam 2009
a Xung dot va bao lire vdn xay ra a mot
sd nir&c chau Phi
Ngay tir diu nam 2009, cac cudc xung dot
sic tdc da xay ra tai mien Nam Sudan, khdi
diu cho mdt loat c^c cudc xung tdt sac tdc
lien tuc xay ra trong nam, khien cho nam
2009 Sudan trd thanh diem ndng cua xung
dot sic tdc d chau Phi Diu nam 2009, mdt
cudc xung dot giiia bd tdc Nuer va bd tdc
Dinka da xay ra tai Tonj, khu vuc heo lanh
nhit d miln Nam Sudan Cudc xung dot xay
ra ngay 6 thang 1 khi nhiing ngudi thudc bd
tpc Nuer da tin cdng trai chan nudi gia sue
cua bp tpc Dinka va cudp di khoang 5.000
gia siic da gay nen vu tham sat, khien it nhat
140 ngudi chit va 90 ngudi bi thuang Tilp
dd, vao thdi dilm thang 8 cung lai xay ra
*Th?c sT, Vi?n Nghien curu Chau Phi v^ Trung D6ng
mdt cudc xung dot bd tdc tai mien Nam nude nay, do mau thuan giira cac nhdm sac tdc ddi djch d viing Akobo la nhdm sac tdc Lou Nuer va Moli thudc bang Jonglei Trong tuyen bd ngay 3 thang 8, Uy vien hdi ddng vimg Akobo - dng Goi Jooyul Yol cho biet, trong sd nhiing ngudi thiet mang cd khoang 100 phu nir va tre em 11 binh sT Quan ddi giai phdng nhan dan Sudan (Sudan People Liberation Army - SPLA) Cung theo dng Goi Jooyul Yol, sd thuang vong tren chua phai la con sd chinh xac bdi van chua thdng ke dugc het cac thi the nan nhan cdn mac trong cac bui ram Dd la chi tinh rieng cudc xung dot vao thang 8, cdn neu tinh tdng cac cudc xung dot le te khac giira bd tdc Lou Nuer va Moli trong nam 2009 thi eon sd ngudi thiet mang phai len tdi 700 ngudi Cdn nlu tinh tdng tat ca cac vu xung dot, bao luc giiia cae bd tdc d Sudan nam 2009 thi cd khoang 2.500 ngudi thiet mang va 350.000 ngudi phai rdi bd nha cira tai mien Nam'
Tgp chinghiin cuu CIlAu Pill & TRinvG Bd'VG so 02 (54) thang 02/2010
Trang 2Kieu Thanh Nga Tinh hinh chinh tri chau Phị
Theo Quy Bao ve tre em, tinh trang bao luc
leo thang cd the khien thoa thuan hda binh
2005 vdn cham dirt cugc xung dot sac tdc
keo dai hai thap ky giira hai mien Nam - Bac
Sudan bj pha vd Nhu vay, dien bien dang lo
ngai mdi trong bdi canh bao lire d Sudan
nam 2009 cho thay tinh hinh Darfur chua
ngudi thi da xuat hien nhiing bat dn mdi ve
chinh trj dang tiep tuc lam cho dat nude nay
rai vao khiing hoang nghiem trgng, khd cd
the thoat ra khdi tinh trang xung dot
Tai Somali, ke tir nam 1991, khi che do
đc tai cua Mohamed Siad Barre sup đ, dat
nude nay lam vao canh ndi chien lien mien
Nam 2009 ciing khdng nam ngoai tinh trang
ay, đ la tinh trang gia tang bao luc do phien
quan Hdi giao cue doan gay nen, dac biet
sau ngay 7 thang 5 khi chinh phu chuyen
tiep cua Tdng thdng Sharif Sheikh Ahmed ra
mat, nhiing chien djch tan cdng cua cac
nhdm vu trang da dien ra Idn chua timg thaỵ
Trudc tinh trang đ, Qudc hdi Somali phai
cau vien cac nude lang gieng trien khai quan
đi giup chinh quyen cua Tdng thdng Sharif
Sheikh Ahmed dn djnh tinh hinh, đng thdi
ngay 21 thang 6 Ndi cac Somali phai ban bd
tinh trang khan cap Tuy nhien, bien phap
nay chi la giai phap tinh the bdi tir lau chinh
quyen Somali chi kiem soat dugc thu đ
Mogadisu va mdt phan lanh thd, cdn lai phin
Idn viing dat mien Nam nude nay do lire
lugng Hdi giao cue doan thao tiing Chi
rieng vu bao luc dien ra trong vdng hon 1
thang nay da lam khoang 300 ngudi thiet
mang, 3 quan chirc cap cao bj sat hai (trong
đ cd canh sat trudng Mogadisu va ngudi
dung dau ca quan an ninh Somali), han 125.000 ngudi phai rdi bd nha cirậ Tinh trang cua đi ngheo, xung dot va bao luc trong sudt nhirng nam qua da gay nen nan cudp bien dang ngay cang gia tang tai nude nay, da khien cho tinh hinh chinh tri 2009 tai Somali lam vao canh nguy khdn nhat, tinh hinh nhan dao d miic xau nhat Theo thdng
ke cua Lien Hgp Qudc, cd khoang 2,3 trieu ngudi Somali (chiem gan 1/2 dan sd nude nay) dang can luong thuc va cac khoan vien trg nhan dao khan cap Hdi đng Bao an Lien Hgp Qudc (HDBA), Lien minh chau Phi (AU) da len an cac cudc giao tranh va keu ggi cac ben cham diit thii dich, đng thdi HDBA ciing da thdng qua nghj quyet gia han hoat đng cua luc lugng gin giii hoa binh d Somali den ngay 31 thang 1 nam 2010, cac nude Gibuti, Ethiopia, Kenya da ap dat lenh cam van dudng bien va dudng khdng nham ngan chan hang vien trg tdi tay phien quan d Somalị Tuy nhien, tit ca cac bien phap nay dudng nhu chua du manh dl giai quylt vin
de d Somali, ma can cd su hgp tac qudc tl rgng hon va hieu qua hon
Mdt dit nude tuong đi phat triin d chau Phi va tudng chimg nhu yen binh trong nam qua cung xay ra bao luc khiln cho han 700 ngudi thiet mang, đ la Nigeriá' Dd la cudc xung dot giiia Boko Haram, mdt nhdm Hdi giao chiln diu va cac lye lugng an ninh Nigeria tir ngay 26 din ngay 29 thang 7 tai 4 thanh pho phia Ddng bic Nigeriạ Ngay 26 thang 7, khi nhdm Hdi giao Boko Haram tin cdng mdt đn canh sat dl tra thii cho viec bit giir mdt sd chi huy ciia chiing, lye lupng
n Tap chinghiin curu CHAU P H I & TRin\G BOMG so 02 (54) thang 02/2010
Trang 3Tinh hinh chinh tri chau Phi Kieu Thanh Nga
canh sat Nigeria da phan ling lai va ra lenh
gidi nghiem toan khu vuc Sy tin cdng ciia
nhdm Boko Haram lan rpng khip vimg,
nhihig ngudi dan sg qua bd trdn khdi nha
lien bj loi ra ban ngay tai cho, xac chit ngdn
ngang trudc cae ddn canh sat va Boko
Haram cho rang dd la hau qua ma luc lugng
canh sat phai chju Mac dii cudc tham sat chi
keo dai 3 ngay nhung nhiing thiet hai ve
ngudi va ciia da khien cho gidi chiic trach
Nigeria bang hoang va dau ddn bdi su thd a
cua minh Day la cudc bao luc giao phai tdi
te nhat ma dat nude nay da timg trai ke tir
thang 11 nam 2008 ma gidi chiic tranh cho
rang chinh tri la nguyen nhan cua vy bao luc
chir khdng phai tdn giao Trudc khi xay ra
vy bao ddng, nhieu nha lanh dao Hdi giao
dja phuang va mdt quan chiic quan ddi da
canh bao cac nha chiic trach Nigeria ve
Boko Haram nhung nhung Idi canh bao nay
da bj lam nga Chinh vi vay, vy bao luc xay
ra ngoai timlciem soat ciia luc lugng an ninh
Nigeria dl lai hau qua tan khdc ve ngudi va
cua, them vao dd la hau qua ve mat an ninh
chinh tri dang khiln cho qudc gia nay phai
doi mat, cin mdt thdi gian dai mdi ban gan
dupe vlt thuang
Tir Ddng Phi, Tay Phi tdi Nam Phi nam
2009 deu xay ra xung dot va bao luc Nam
Phi qudc gia dau tau, phat trien nhat chau
Phi cung xay ra bao luc, ma lai la bao lye ddi
vdi ngudi nude ngoai Vao ngay 6 thang 1,
td Daily News ciia Nam Phi dua tin da xay ra
mpt vy tan cdng ngudi nude ngoai Dd la
mpt ngudi tj nan Tanzania da mat 2 anh trai
trong chua day mpt nam tai Nam Phi, ngudi
anh thir nhat bj giet trong \u bao luc bai ngoai lien quan den cac vu tan cdng d Johannesburg nam 2008 va ngudi anh thir hai bj giet vao ngay 5 thang I khi anh ta bj
ep bude phai nhay ra khdi cira sd ting 6 de cudp bde Nhirng vu tan cdng nay la nhung hanh vi dang hd then ddi vdi ngudi dan Nam Phi, dac biet nhiing Idi bude tdi cua nan nhan
la nhirng Idi len an va tri chich rat nang ne khdng chi ddi vdi nhung ke tham gia bao luc
ma ca luc lugng canh sat Nam Phi Bakari mdt ngudi mang qudc tjch Kenya chimg minh rang, anh ta da tan mat chirng kien su viec khi nhin trdm vao phia ddn canh sat, khi canh sat giai nhiing ke tham gia tan cdng vao try sd canh sat thi chiing vira di vira hat to va
het len: "shaya amakwerelcwere - hit the foreigners - danh ngirai nuac ngoai "^ ngudi
chiing mang theo day du vii khi tan cdng nhung canh sat lai lam ngg, khdng he tra hdi, khdng he thuc hien nhiem vy ma canh sat phai lam Dieu nay phan anh tinh hinh bao luc tai chau Phi dang tiep tyc gia tang ma khdng he cd dau hieu giam sut
b Khiing hoang chinh tri chira cham dirt
Ngay tir dau nam 2009, tai Guinea Bissau
- mdt qudc gia thudc khu vuc Tay Phi - da xay ra mdt vy tham sat dam mau, myc tieu nham vao nhirng ngudi dimg dau dat nude Thang 1 nam 2009, Tudng Tagme Na Waie, Tdng tu lenh quan ddi Guinea Bissau bude tdi ngudi bao ve cua Tdng thdng Joao Bernardo Vieira da ban vao xe hoi cua dng
ta trong mdt cudc muu sat - Waie dugc coi la
Tgp chinghiin ciru CHAU PHI & TRIHMG Bd\G so 02 (54) thang 02/2010
Trang 4Kieu Thanh Nga Tinh hinh chinh tri chau Phi
ddi thii chinh trj nang ky nhat cua Tdng
thdng Vieira Vu viec chua dugc lam sang td
thi vao tdi ngay 1 thang 3, tudng Tagme Na
Waie bj giet bdi 1 qua bom dugc dat ngay tai
try sd chi huy quan ddi d thii dd Bissau Mdt
ngay sau dd, chieu ngay 2 thang 3, Tdng
thdng Joao Bernardo Vieira ciing bj cac binh
sT ndi loan ha sat khi dng cd gang chay trdn
ra khdi nha, rieng vj quan chiic phy trach
bao chi cua tdng thdng da thoat dugc khdi
dinh sau khi dinh mdt vien dan vao vai phai
Trong bdi canh tinh hinh chinh trj d thu dd
Bissau cang thang Bd trudng Qudc phdng
Artur Silva va nhieu quan chOrc cao cap cua
Guinea Bissau da tir chdi binh luan ve vy
viec nay, ngudi ta dang nghi ngd lieu day ed
phai la mdt vy dao chinh hay khdng, bdi
mam mdng cua cac su kien nay bat ngudn tir
thang 11 nam 2008 khi cac binh sT ndi loan
da tan cdng noi d cua Tdng thdng Vieira
bang vu khi tu ddng, vy dau siing nay da
khien mdt linh gac tai dinh thiet mang, cdn
Tdng tu lenh Waie cung timg thoat chet sau
mdt am muu am sat vao thang 1 nam nay sau
khi mdt sd tay sung na dan vao xe hoi cua
dng Sau vu viec nay, ngudi ta chi thay binh
linh cua Guinea Bissau phong tda cac con
dudng xung quanh try sd Bd Qudc phdng va
ngan can phdng vien vao dd, quan ddi ciing
ra lenh ddng cira 5 dai phat thanh tu nhan tai
thii dd, dai phat thanh qudc gia van boat
ddng, nhung chi phat sdng cac ban nhac
truyen thdng chii khdng thay tiet Id gi vl
thdng tin cua vy viec Tir nam 1948 cho din
na\ Guinea Bissau da trai qua nhieu cudc
dao chinh \a Tdng thdng Vieira ciing len
nam quyen sau mdt cudc chinh bien Troi^ khi cac am muu am sat chua dugc lam rd thi vao ngay 31 thang 7, dng Malam Bacai Sanha trd thanh Tdng thdng mdi ciia Guinea Bissau sau khi gianh chien thang 63,31% trong cudc bau cii tdng thdng^ Trudc tinh hinh chinh tri dat nude cdn nhieu rdi ren, lieu rang Tdng thdng Malam Bacai Sanha co cheo lai con thuyen chinh trj Guinea Bissau vao dugc bin bd an toan hay khdng, cd le van la mdt cau hdi bd ngd
Trong khi dd, mdt su kien lai khoet sau them vao tinh hinh chinh trj vdn da mong manh cua Sudan, dd la viec Tda an hinh sir qudc te da chap nhan lenh bat giam Tdng thdng Omar Al-Bechir ngay 4 thang 3 nam
2009 tai La Hay, Ha Lan^ Trudc day, chinh quyen Bush da ket tdi Tdng thdng Bechir vdi nan diet chiing, tuy nhien ban cao trang lan nay ciia Tdng thdng Bechir la tdi ac chong nhan loai (gilt ngudi, cudp bde, hanh ddng hiiy diet, di chuyen cudng biic dan thudng ) Day la lan dau tien Tda an hinh
su qudc te dua ra lenh bit giam mdt tdng thdng duong nhiem cua mdt dit nude cd chii quyin nhu Sudan Su kien nay da gay nhilu tranh cai va se cd the anh hudng tdi an ninh, chinh trj Sudan ndi rieng, chau Phi ndi chung Su kien nay ciing khiln cho khdng it ngudi phai nghi ngd vl tinh cdng bing ciia Toa an hinh sy quoc tl
Cdn tai Somali, trong nhiing nam gin day ngudi ta bilt nhilu din dit nude nay qua nhung tin tiic vl nan cudp biln va nam 2009 tinh trang nay cang trd nen bi dat Tuy nhien,
Tap chinghiin curu CllAu Pill & TRIIIVG Bdl\G so 02 (54) thang 02/2010
Trang 5Tinh hinh chinh tri chau Phi Kieu Thanh Nga
dieu ma it ai bilt din dd la tinh trang chiln
tranh va vd phap luat da va dang tilp tyc xay
ra sudt nhieu nam nay tai dit nude nay va
dac biet trong nam 2009, Somali thanh lap
mdt chinh quyen thdng nhit khiln cho tinh
trang nay cang liin sau them vao viing liy
chinh tri Thang 1 nam 2009, Qudc hdi lien
bang qua do cua Somali da biu cir dng
Sharif Sheikh Ahmed - mdt lanh tu Hdi giao
dn hda - lam tdng thdng nude nay trong cudc
bd philu kin d Djibouti Ong Sharif Sheikh
Ahmed len nam quyen thay cuu Tdng thong
Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, ngudi da tir chiic
hdi thang 12 nam 2008 sau mdt thdi gian
dai xay ra nhiing vy tranh gianh quyen luc
trong ndi bd Ong Sharif Sheikh 45 tudi,
timg theo hgc mdn dja ly d Sudan tir nam
1992 den nam 1994, sau dd sang Lybia hgc
luat Hdi giao, trd ve Somalia nam 2000 dng
di day hgc va phuc vy trong chinh phii, dng
dugc xem la mdt chinh khach dn hda da chii
dgng tranh thii su ling hd cua nhieu phe phai
chinh tri, tdn giao va cae sac tdc khac nhau,
dng gianh dugc nhieu su ung hd tir qudc te
trong nd lye chim dixt 18 nam xung dot d
Somali Tuy nhien, trong tinh hinh chinh trj
dat nude cdn nhieu cang thang va bat ddng,
tan Tdng thdng Somali se phai ganh vac
nhiem vy vd eiing khd khan la dn djnh mdt
qudc gia day bao ddng va vd chinh phii, bj
tan pha trong gin 2 thap nien Ngoai trudng
Mamoud AH Yusuf cho rang viec dng Sharif
Sheikh die cir chi la md dau cho mdt qua
trinh vd cimg khd khan va can cd su hd trg
cua cpng dong qudc te bdi nhung nhdm
ngudi Hoi giao chdng ddi nhu al Shabaab va
Hezb al-lslamiya van tiep tuc khdng cdng nhan chinh quyen mdi, ddng thai phe Hoi giao cimg ran khdng chip nhan thoa thuan hda binh ma Lien minh Tda an Hdi giao ciia dng Sharif Sheikh ky vdi chinh phii Somalia hdi nam ngoai, cac phan tir ndi day tiep tuc chien dau, lien tuc tan cdng quan ddi va thudng dan de gianh them quyin kiim soat d nhieu noi tren dat nude nay Hiu hit nhiing cudc tin cdng nay diln ra tai thii dd Mogadishu cua Somali, chinh vi \a\ Chinh phii Somali gid day chi kiim soat mdt phan
thu dd Mogadishu vdi su giiip da ciia vai
nghin binh sT Lien minh chau Phi, Luc lugng van hdi hda binh tai Somali (AMISOM) ciing da cung cap ban 3000 linh dl duy tri an ninh cho khu vuc nay Tuy nhien nhirng nd luc ay khdng han che dugc tinh trang rdi ren tai dat nude nay khi mdt vu danh bom da xa)
ra vao ngay 17 thang 9 da lam 17 binh sT trong luc lugng gin giir hoa binh chau Phi thiet mang Tiep dd, vao thdi diem cudi nam ngay 3 thang 12 mdt vu nd bom toi te nhit tai Somali nam 2009 da lam it nhat 18 ngudi chet (trong dd cd 3 bd trudng trong Chinh phu lam thdi Somali: Bd trudng Y te Bd trudng Giao due va Bd trudng Giao due Dai hgc), khoang 30 ngudi khac bj thuang^ Vu
nd bom xa\' ra tai khach san Shamo, khi cac
bd trudng va cac quan chirc cao cap dang tham du le tdt nghiep cho cac sinh \ ien khoa
y, khoa ky thuat va vi tinh trudng Dai hgc Benadir da lam rung chuyen thu dd Mogadisu Mac dii ngudi ta van nghi ngd mau thuan giira chinh phii Tdng thdng Sharif Sheikh va phe Hdi giao chdng ddi bdi trong
Tgp chinghiin curu CIlAli P i l l & TRin\G Bd:\G so 02 (54) thang 02/2010
Trang 6Kieu Thanh Nga Tinh hinh chinh tri chau Phi
nhung thang qua, nhieu cudc xung dot da
xay ra giiira quan ddi Chinh phu lam thdi
Somali va Phong trao thanh nien, Phong trao
Dang Hdi giao Tuy nhien cho den nay, chua
cd ca nhan hay td chiic nao nhan trach nhiem
ve nhiing vu danh bom nay
Cdn tai qudc dao Madagascar, nam 2009
da xay ra cudc khung hoang chinh trj nghiem
trgng do dao chinh lat dd Tdng thdng Marc
Ravalomanana Nguyen nhan bat ngudn tir
viec Tdng thdng Marc Ravalomanana ddng
cira mdt dai truyen hinh thudc sd hiin cua
dng Rajoelina - Thj trudng thu dd
Antananarivo vao thang 12 nam 2008 Cudc
phan khang ciia Rajoelina nham vao chinh
phii ciia Tdng thdng Marc Ravalomanana bat
dau dien ra vao thang 1 nam 2009 len den
dinh diem va trd thanh bao luc dugc td churc
qu> md do Rajoelina dan dau Sau hang loat
cugc bieu tinh chdng chinh phu do phe
Rajoelina tien hanh, va ngay 16 thang 3 nam
2009 quan ddi Malagasy da dot danh chiem
dien Ambohitsorohitra, mdt trong nhung noi
d cua Tdng thdng Ravalomanana, mac dii liic
dd Tdng thdng khdng cd mat nhung dng
bude phai trao lai quyen luc cho Rajoelina
Ngay 21 thang 3, Rajoelina tuyen the chinh
thiic trudc su chiing kien cua 40.000 ngudi
ung hd \a tu tuyen bd la Chu tjch Chinh
quyen lam thdi tdi cao Madagascar Lien
minh chau Phi da len an hanh ddng cua
Rajoelina ggi dd la "dao chinh chiem
ddng-attempted coup d'etat" vdi hau qua 135
ngudi bj giet** Tudng rang chinh trudng
Madagascar tam lang xudng vdi su lanh dao
cua Rajoelina sau khi dng ky thoa thuan
chia se quyen lire vdi 3 cuu Tdng thdng ciia Madagascar vao thang 8, trong dd cd dng Ravalomanana Tuy nhien, cudi nam 2009, dng Rajoelina da don phuang nit khdi thoa thuan chia se quyen luc nay va tuyen bd tl chirc tdng tuyen cii vao ngay 20 thang 3 nam 2010, day chinh trudng Madagascar tiep tuc liin sau vao khung hoang va cho den nay Madagascar van la mdt trong nhiing van de chinh trj ca ban ma chau Phi dang phai ddi mat
Ciing nhu Madagascar, mdi day tai Niger
da xay ra cudc dao chinh lat dd tdng thdng khien cho Niger lam vao cugc khiing hoang chinh trj tram trpng Nguyen nhan bat ngudn tir viec Tdng thdng Tandja giai tan qudc hdi
va td chiic trung cau dan y vao thang 8 nam
2009 de thay ddi Hien phap nhim cho phep dng tiep tuc nhiem ky tdng thdng thii ba thay
vi se phai ra di sau ngay 22 thang 12 nam
2009 Bau khdng khi chinh tri ngay cang trd nen cang thang vdi su chdng ddi cua cac luc lugng chdng chinh phii Tandja, la mim mdng dan den cupc dao chinh ngay 18 thang
2 nam 2010 lat dd Tdng thong Tandja, kit thiic nin Cdng hda thii sau thiit lap mdt chinh quyin quan su mdi Trudc tinh hinh
dd, cdng ddng qudc te len tiing chi trich va trimg phat Niger: Cdng ddng Kinh tl Tay Phi (ECOWAS) dinh chi tu each thanh vien cua Niger; My tuyen bd cit vien trg nhan dao va cim mdt sd quan chiic Chinh phii Niger tdi My; Phap, My, Diic da keu ggi cac ben lien quan tim giai phap giai quylt cudc khiing hoang chinh trj thdng qua doi thoai, nhanh chdng khdi phyc dan chii, tien
ri8l Tap chinghiin ciru CIlAlJ Pill & TRU!\G BdMG so 02 (54) thang 02/2010
Trang 7Tinh hinh chinh tri chau Phi Kieu Thanh Nga
hanh cac cudc bau cii cdng bang, minh bach;
Tdng Thu ky LHQ Ban Kimun keu gpi
Niger nhanh chdng tim giai phap hda binh
cho cudc khiing hoang; Cao liy phy trach an
ninh cua AU, dng Ramtane Lamamra tuyen
bd nhung gi dang dien ra d Niger la ''di
ngugc lai mong mudn ciia AU ve mot chdu
luc khong CO dao chinh "^ Ngudi cham diit
"Icy nguyen " dao chinh va ndi day tai Niger
sau mdt cudc bau cii dan chu nam 1999 de
len nim quyin lin diu lai vira bi phe truat
bang mdt cudc chinh bien Nhu vay, khung
hoang chinh trj nam 2009 da day Niger vao
vung liy chinh trj khdng biet khi nao mdi cd
thi cham diit
2 Tac dong cua chinh trj tdi s\i
phat trien Icinh te xa hoi chau Phi
nam 2009
Nhin chung, biic tranh chinh trj ciia chau
Phi nam 2009 van chua xuit hien mang mau
tuai sang hon so vdi nam 2008, dao chinh
quan sy cd phin giam di thi bao luc va xung
dpt, nhung khiing hoang chinh trj mdi lai
tilp tyc gia tang Xung dot, bao lye va nhung
khung hoang vl chinh tri da va dang lam cho
chau Phi khdng thoat ra khdi vung lay cua su
tut hau Cd thi dua ra mdt vai vi du dien
hinh vl su tac ddng cua chinh trj tdi su phat
triin kinh tl, xa hdi nam 2009 cua mdt sd
nude chau Phi nhu sau:
Trudc hit la tai Zimbabwe, dit nude cd
thi ndi la tam thdi chim diit mdt thap ky
tranh gianh quyin luc giira Tdng thdng
Robert Mugabe va phe ddi lap - nha lanh dao
Tsvangirai M$c dii chinh quyin mdi cd dem
lai cho ngudi dan Zimbabwe mdt cudc sdng
no am hay khdng thi cdn phy thudc vao su dieu hanh dat nude cua Tdng thdng Robert Mugabe va su thdng nhat cua chinh phii doan ket Cho den nay, chinh phu doan ket cua Zimbabwe van chua hoan toan dn djnh sau cudc khung hoang chinh trj xay ra nam
2008 da gay nhieu chet ehdc cho dan thudng
va la hau qua cua sy tudt ddc kinh te va giam thieu ti le lam phat mdt each chdng mat do Chinh phu doan ket Zimbabwe gay nen Tuy nhien, cudc bau cir nam 2008 cho ra ddi lien minh chinh phu ciia Tdng thdng Mugabe va Thu tudng Tsvangirai cho thay cd dau hieu ciia su dn djnh chinh trj da quay trd lai vdi Zimbabwe trong nam 2009 Theo dd, chinh phu lien minh da khdi phyc lai su dn djnh ca
ve chinh trj va kinh te cua dat nude vdi Idi
danh gia ciia Tdng thdng Mugabe: ''Day la mot nam day y nghTa Mot nam ma chiing ta
ma ra mot sir hgp tdc mai, ciing nhau co gang lam viec, khong de y den su khdc biet chinh trj giira cdc ddng Chiing ta la ciia Zimbabwe va Zimbabwe la ciia tdt cd chung
ta, chiing ta co mot van menh chung"^^ Cdn
Thii tudng Tsvangirai, trong bai phat bieu cua minh ve nam 2009 ciing dien ta su lac quan tuong tu tdng thdng ve su thdng nhat dan tdc trong tuong lai, han gan vet thuang
trong qua khur va tien len phia trudc: "Nam
2010 dang den vai chimg ta, chung ta cdn xay dung mot trien vong khd quan, chiing ta cdn phdi xuc tien cdc ke hoach da de ra, su han gan ddn toe va chuyen tie su on djnh kinh te thanh sir khdi phuc vd phdt trien "
Mac dii, dat nude nay van chua cd su dn
Tgp chinghiin ciru CllAu PHI & TRinMC Bd:^G so 02 (54) thang 02/2010 [19
Trang 8Kieu Thanh Nga Tinh hinh chinh tri chau PN
djnh chinh trj hoan toan bdi van tiem an
nhirng mam mdng gay bat dn trong qua khir
song ngudi dan Zimbabwe cam thay hanh
phuc va sung sudng vi mdt cudc sdng yen
binh nhu nam vira qua, mot nam khdi dau tdt
dep sau mdt thap ky rdi loan
Cdn tai Kenya, theo Bao cao kinh te nam
2009 cua Kenya cdng bd \ao thang 10 sau
khi trai qua cac cudc bao ddng hau bau cir
nam 2008 khi Tdng thdng Mwai Kibaki
tuyen bd thang cir gay nen cudc xung dot sac
tdc giira bd tdc Luo cua phe ddi lap Raila
Odinga va bd tdc Kikuyu ciia Tdng thdng
Mwai Kibaki lam hon 1.000 ngudi thiet
mang, cdng them ban ban va cugc su} thoai
toan cau nam 2008 nam 2009 nen kinh te
nude nay da cho thay nhirng dau hieu phuc
hdi dam bao miic tang trudng tir 2% den
2.5% Bao cao cung du bao nen kinh te hang
dau khu \\xc Ddng Phi na> cd the bao dam
mire tang trudng 3.9% trong nam 2010 Ong
Rundheersing Bheenick Thdng ddc Ngan
hang Trung uong Mauritius khang djnh:
"Nhung dam may den tren ban trai chdu Phi
nam 2009 da nhanh chong tan di Chiing toi
tin tuang kinh te chdu Phi se tien trien theo
chieu huang tich cue " '
Dd la nhiing qudc gia cd dau hieu phuc
hdi sau nhung bien cd \'e chinh trj tam lang
xudng \ ao nam 2009 cdn d Madagascar vu
dao chinh quan su da de lai hau qua nang ne
cho su phat trien kinh te - xa hdi cua nude
nay trong nam 2009 Bd trudng Tai chinh
Benja Razafimahaleo da dua ra bao cao vl
su giam sut thu nhap qudc gia ciia chinh phu
tir 15-20% do mdt sd nguyen nhan tir cuoc dao chinh dac biet nguyen nhan tir viec Ravalomanana sd hiru Tiko trang trai san xuit ba siia Idn nhat Madagascar Sau khi Rajoelina trd thanh tdng thdng, nhung nguai ung hd Rajoelina da dap pha trang trai, hau qua la dan den thieu sura tram trgng 6 Madagascar Them vao do, hau qua ciia cudc dao chinh cung da giang mdt ddn manh me den nganh du ljch Madagasca, thu nhap tir khach du lich nude ngoai da giam 70%, mot phan do cac nude da dua ra Idi canh bao cho cdng dan ciia hg khdng tdi du ljch tai Madagascar Cd khoang 70%) sd lugng khach san phai ddng cira do thua Id trong kinh doanh nhan vien that nghiep Su bao ddng, khdng cd luang va su vien trg nude ngoai giam ciing la nhiing nguyen nhan khien cho nen kinh te ciia dat nude nay lam vao tinh trang khd khan Trudc tinh hinh do, Lien minh chau Phi bay td su quan ngai sau sac ve tinh hinh tai Madagascar - qudc dao chau Phi, van chua thoat khdi cudc khimg hoang chinh trj nghiem trpng keo dai ban mdt nam qua Chu tjch Lien minh chau Phi Gin Ping khang djnh, Madagascar van la mot trong nhiing van de chinh trj ca ban ma chau Phi dang phai ddi mat ddng thdi keu goi cdng ddng qudc te va cac ben lien quan tang cudng nd luc giai quylt cudc khung hoang tai qudc dao nay bdi cho den nay, nhiing thoa thuan \ a thoa hiep chinh trj da dat dugc van chua du de cham diit cudc khung hoang chinh trj d day
Cdn tai Sudan nam 2009, mac dii viec thue hien Hiep dinh Hda binh toan dien (the
'20 Tgp chinghiin cuu CllAli Pill & TRlil^G B^.^G so 02 (54) thang 02/2010
Trang 9Tinh hinh chinh tri chau Phi Kieu Thanh Nga
Comprehensive Peace Agreement) da dugc
cai thien trien vgng cho su thuc diy su dn
dinh chinh trj va su chia se quyen luc da
dupe dua ra Tuy nhien, cudc xung dot dan
su (civil strife) d Darfur va vimg bien gidi
giura mien Nam va mien Bic dit nude nay
(dac biet la khu vyc giau cd nguon tai
nguyen dau - Abyei), la su de dga Idn nhat
cho sy phat trien kinh te - xa hdi cua dat
nude Ba mdi de dga nay gan day da tang len
do sy quyet djnh cua Tda an hinh su qudc te
(the Intemational Criminal Court - ICC) ve
viec bat giam Tdng thdng Sudan Omar
Al-Bechir vdi tdi ac chdng nhan loai Bat chap
nhiing thach thiic ve chinh trj va kinh te,
Sudan da nd luc binh thudng hda mdi quan
he vdi cac nude lang gieng nhu: Ethiopia,
Uganda va Kenya ciing nhu cac ddi tac phat
triin khac Ty le tang trudng cao d miic dn
djnh vdi viec san xuat dau da dem lai su tang
thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi, ty le mil chir
va ty le tu vong d tre em giam dang ke ddng
thdi trong nam 2009, Sudan cung da no luc
diu tu chi phi cho ca sd ha tang nhu dien,
dudng va thdng tin Tuy nhien ngheo ddi
van cdn nhilu, phan phdi thu nhap cdn chenh
lech kha Idn, viec phan phdi cac djch vy xa
hdi chua tuong xiing va cdn nhieu van de
Cha thick:
chinh trj nghiem trgng Xung dot va ban ban
da de lai hau qua \ e ty le di chuyen trudng hgc cao d ca khu dd thj va ndng thdn su bap benh ve kinh te d cac khu dd thi Trudc tinh hinh dd, Sudan can thiet phai cai thien su quan ly - dac biet trong nganh dau, cac nganh djch vu co ban - va nd luc hon nira de tao dugc su tang trudng ddng deu, dn djnh
da dang va cdng bang
Mac dii tinh trang bat dn d chau Phi van cdn nhieu ly do dang lo ngai, tuy nhien ciing can nhan thay rang thap ky dau tien cua the
ky XXI da dem lai cho chau Phi mdt dien mao mdi tren mgi binh dien Trudc bet, dd la
su nhan thiic cua cac nha lanh dao chau Phi mudn cheo lai con thuyen chinh trj theo xu hudng dan chu, dn djnh de thu hut tam mat cua cac nha dau tu, khach du ljch tir cac nude tren the gidi Dd la chinh la su thay da ddi thjt ciia lye dja Den Hy vgng rang trong thdi gian tdi cimg vdi nd lye ciia ban than, su
hd trg cua cdng ddng qudc te va su phat trien cua toan nhan loai hudng tdi mdt xa hdi dn djnh, hda binh va phat trien cdng bang, chau Phi se dan thoat ra khdi tinh trang chinh tri bit dn, phat trien kinh te - xa hdi mdt each
dn djnh va ben viing
' Xudang: Xung dot giira cac bo toe khien hang tram nguai tliiet mgng, http://vvww.cpv.org.vn
^Xomali: "Bao tan" tran ba http://www.baomoi.com/lnfo/Xomaii-Bao-lon-tran-bo/119/2862698.epi
' 2009 Nigerian sectarian violence, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009
* Xenophobic Violence in South Africa, http://south-africa.suiteI01.com
' http://unogbis.unmissions.org
Tgp chinghiin cuu CHAII PIII & TRIUMG Bd:%G so 02 (54) thang 02/2010
Trang 10Kieu Thanh Nga Tinh hinh chinh tri chau Phi
*'Ximg quanh lenh bdt Tdng thdng Xudang El-Bechir- TLTKDB 18/3/2009
' Ad bom tgi Somali lam 3 bo truang thiet mgng, http://.www.VOVnews.vn
^Madagascar: 2009 Malagasy political crisis, http;//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009
' Van Khanh, Dao chinh qudn sir tgi Nigie: "Bong ma" tra lgi,
http://www.hanoimoi.com.vn/newsdetail/The_gioi/3093I8/%C4%91ao-chinh-quan-su-tai-nigie-bong-ma-tro-lai.htm
'° Albert Chanvadza, PANA Correspondent, 2009: Most politically stable year in Zimbabwe
in decade News - Africa news, http://www.afriquejet.com/news/africa-news
'' Albert Charwadza, PANA Correspondent, 2009: Most politically stable year in Zimbabwe
in decade, News - Africa news, http://www.afriquejet.com/news/africa-news
'^ Washington Gikunju, Kenya ranked E Africa's most unstable economy,
http://msambweninomad.blogspot.com
Tai lieu tham khao
1, Albert Charwadza, PANA Correspondent, 2009: Most politically stable year in Zimbabwe
in decade News - Africa news, http://www.afriquejet.com/news/africa-news
2, Guinea Bissau, http://www.irinnews.org
3, Lanh dao Nam Chdu Phi hop bdn ve Zimbabwe, http://vovnews.vn/
4, Lien minh chdu Phi lo nggi ve tinh hinh a Madagascar, http://vovnews.vn
5, Sudan, http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/countries/east-africa
6, Xudang: Xung dot giira cdc bo toe khien hdng trdm nguai thiet mgng,
http://www.cpv.org.vn
7, Xu-ddng: Xung dot sdc toe lam han 160 nguai thiet mang, http://www.dangcongsan.vn
8, Xung quanh lenh bdt Tdng thdng Xudang El-Bechir, TLTKDB 18/3/2009
9, Washington Gikunju, Kenya ranked E Africa's most unstable economy,
http://msambweninomad.blogspot.com
10, Van Khanh, Ddo chinh qudn su tgi Nigie: "Bdng ma" tra lgi,
http://www.hanoimoi.com.vn/newsdetail/The_gioi/309318/%C4%91ao-chinh-quan-su-tai-nigie-bong-ma-tro-lai.htm
11, Xomali: "Bdo lan" trdn bd,
http://www.baomoi.com/Info/Xomali-Bao-lon-tran-bo/119/2862698.epi
Tgp chinghiin curu CIlAu PIII & TRUIMG BdMG so 02 (54) thang 02/2010