Tgi cdc quo'c gia d khu vUc co khi hgu nhiet ddi co the dd/se chiu dnh hudng mgnh me ciia bie'n doi khi hdu todn cdu, ngheo doi gia tdng, vd them vdo do ndng lUc qudn ly nhd nUdc suy[r]
Trang 1Bien doi khi hau trong moi lien he
v6i chu nghTa khung bo cf Inddnexia
nhurng nam gan day
PHAM ANH*
N G U Y I N NGOC HOA**
'KTgdy nay, bie'n doi khi hdu da vd
JL V dang ndi len nhU mgt trong nhdng
vdn di nong bong, thdch thdc sUphdt trien
vd gdy mgt mo'i quan nggi ldn cho tdt cd
cdc qudc gia Chung ta cdng noi nhiiu vi
sU tdc dgng ciia no ddi vdi kinh te, xd hgi,
y te, vd moi trUdng Vi ca bdn, nhdng y
kien ndy diu gap nhau d mgt diem, do Id
cdn phdi chung sdc ngdn chgn, gidm ddn
vd di de'n thich dng ddn do'i vdi bie'n doi
khi hgu Tuy nhien, xet tren khia cgnh
tong hoa cua moi trUdng chinh tri, d mgt sd
nUdc dang phdt trien lgi cho thdy nhiing
mo'i lien he he't sdc ddng chu y giUa bie'n
doi khi hgu vd sU noi len cda cdc nhom
khdng bo' Tgi cdc quo'c gia d khu vUc co
khi hgu nhiet ddi co the dd/se chiu dnh
hudng mgnh me ciia bie'n doi khi hdu todn
cdu, ngheo doi gia tdng, vd them vdo do
ndng lUc qudn ly nhd nUdc suy gidm - mgt
phdn la do tdc dgng cua cdc sU kien lien
quan de'n bie'n doi khi hdu - dd vd dang tgo
ra ca sa, cho dUa khdch quan cdn thie't
cho nhiing nhom khung bo'duy tri vd hogt
dgng Tren ca sd nhdng tdi lieu thu thdp
dugc vd td thUc tien ciia sU phdt trien, bdi
bdo ndy gop phdn xdy dUng vd md rgng
mgt y tudng dang ddn trd nen dugc chdp
nhdn - biin doi khi hdu co the la mgt ye'u
to gdy ra cdc hogt dgng khung bd d cdc nUdc dang phdt trien d ddy, chiing toi tap trung phdn tich vi trUdng hop Inddnexia
vd xem xet nhUng tdc dgng cua bie'n ddi khi hgu ddi vdi moi trUdng an ninh, chinh tri trong khodng mgt thdp nien gdn ddy
Cho den d i u n a m 1998, cupc k h i n g hoang tai cMnh chau A da giang mpt ddn
m a n h vao nen k i n h te Inddnexia Hang
t r a m n g h i n ngudi t h a t nghiep, ddng Rupiah m a t gia len den 84% Theo dfl lieu tho'ng ke, cd tdi hdn 80 trieu ngUdi dan phai chap n h a n song dUdi mflc ngheo khd, trong khi trudc k h i n g hoang cM la 22 trieu*^) Su di xud'ng c i a nen k i n h te nay tdi te den m i c ngudi t a bupc phai t h i a
n h a n r i n g chUa cd tien Ie nao trong vdng
50 n a m qua Cflng Iflc dd, hien tUdng dao dpng phUdng N a m El Nino (ENSO) tao nen mot ddt b a n b a n t a n p h a t r e n dien rpng xfl van dao San x u a t lUdng thUc dinh tre, t i n h t r a n g thie'u lUdng thUc trd nen phd bien dUa de'n sU b a t binh, p h l n no trong dan Cac cupc bao dpng lUdng thUc
va bieu t i n h q u i n chung da nd r a va vUdt khdi t i m kiem soat c i a chinh p h i Tren thUc te, Inddnexia da rdi vao mot cupc
* P h a m Anh, Nghien cflu sinh, Dai hoc Quo'c gia Sun Yat-sen, Dai Loan
** N g u y i n Ngoc Hoa, Dai hoc Luat Ha Noi
Trang 244 Nghien cdu Ddng Nam A 8/2010
k h i n g hoang chinh tri, xa hpi Trong
t h a n g 2 n a m 1998, do gia thUc p h a m len
cao, d hdn 20 t h a n h p h d v a thi xa da xay r l
cac cupc ndi day m a n g t i n h chat bao luc^^^
TrUdc t i n h h i n h xa hpi rdi ren len den dinh
diem, va mpt p h l n la cac yeu to' khac,
Tdng tho'ng Soeharto da phai t i chflc sau
hdn 30 n a m d m quyen NhUng ngay c l
kM cMnh p h i Soeharto sup do, mpt the he
lanh dao mdi t h a y the, Inddnexia v i n chUa
cho thay d i u hieu thoat r a khdi k h u n g
hoang, t h a m cM' nd con tac dpng m a n h me
den cMnh trudng nUdc nay Mpt chinh p h i
t r u n g Udng vflng m a n h da hoan toan cham
dflt vdi Inddnexia, va t h a y vao dd la mpt
nen dan c h i yeu dt, d do tdng tho'ng mdi va
quo'c hpi - mdi dUdc trao quyen va n h a n h
chdng cd thUc quyen - cd sU canh t r a n h
cbinh tri quye't liet^^^ Hdn nfla, k h a n a n g
kiem soat c i a cMnh p h i t r u n g Udng cung
ngay cang b a n che d i n bdi ket qua c i a qua
t r i n h d i u t r a n h lau dai h a n g t h a p ky c i a
cac tinh do'i vdi viec phi t a p t r u n g quyen
lUc NhUng q u a n trpng hdn t i t d la chinh
trong bdi d n h cbinh tri p h i c t a p dd, h a n g
t r a m p h l n t i Hdi giao luu vong da trd ve
Inddnexia, rdi ngay sau dd yeu d u "khong
gian chinh tri"^'*^ Hai trong so' nhflng
ngUdi trd ve q u a n trpng n h a t la Abdullah
Sungkar va Abu B a k a r Ba'asyir Hp cWnh
la ndng cot c i a td chflc q u a n sU J e m a a h
Islamiyah (JI)^^^ - td chflc i n g hp cho sU r a
ddi c i a mpt n h a nUdc Hdi giao d
Inddnexia Cd t h e ndi chinh sU dot ngpt
suy yeu c i a n h a nUdc Inddnexia da md r a
nhflng dieu k i e n c h i n b t r i de hp tfl
Malaixia trd ve va tiep tuc dUa J I trd Iai
boat dpng d dat nUdc nay^'^^ Sau dd, J l b i t
d i u md rpng the lUc va lien he vdi m a n g
ludi k h i n g bo' Al-Qaeda c i a Osama Bin
Laden Va chi trong mpt vai nam, td c h i c
cUc doan nay da trUc tiep d m d i u hoac
giat day cho h a n g Ioat cac vu t a n cdng
bang bom t r e n k h i p Inddnexia Chung t a
cd the diem qua mpt vai sU kien nhU sau: ngay 12 t h a n g 10 n a m 2002, vu t a n cdng lieu l m h n h a t c i a nhdm nay vao h a i hop dem d Bali Iam hdn 200 ngudi chet, trong
do cd 88 cong dan Australia; g i n mpt n a m sau dd, ngay 5 t h a n g 8 n a m 2003, J I dat bom t a i k h a c h s a n J.W M a r r i o t t d
J a k a r t a ; va dac biet la vu t i n cong Dai s i
q u a n Australia cflng d J a k a r t a ngay 9
t h a n g 9 n a m 2004 N a m 2005, J I tiep tuc gay ra vu k h i n g bo' dam m a u t r e n dao Bali, va n a m 2009 J l lai trd t h a n h t a m diem vdi sU kien t a n cong lieu chet b i n g bom tai k h a c h s a n J.W Marriott va Ritz Carlto Vu t a n cong ngay 17 t h a n g 7 n a m
2009 tai hai k h a c h s a n cao d p d J a k a r t a
da Iam 9 ngUdi thiet mang, ke d lUc lUdng
k h u n g bd^, va lam hi thUdng hdn 50 ngUdi
Vu d a n h bom la mpt t h a c h t h i c Idn vdi
c h i n h q u y e n c i a Tong tho'ng B.S Yudhoyono vi hai k h a c h san Ritz Carlton
va J.W Marriott la ndi t a p t r u n g nhieu doanh n h a n va n h a ngoai giao nUdc ngoai, dupc coi la hai trong so' nhflng tda n h a an toan n h a t d t h i do J a k a r t a Ngoai ra, JI cdn dinh dang den h a n g chuc vu t a n cong
k h i n g bo' d mien N a m Philippines Hien nay, td c h i c J I d Inddnexia cd sU p h a n hda
t h a n h 2 bp p h a n Theo n h a n dinh chung
c i a gidi t i n h bao, J I theo dong cMnh Men nay, khong p h a i td chflc qua khich n h u trudc, cd ve ddng y t r a n h dau t r e n phUdng dien chinh tri hdn la ve phUdng dien
k h i n g bo' Tuy nhien, nhflng t h a n h p h l n tre da hi cUc doan hda lai khong ddng y vdi
q u a n diem t r u n g hda cua J I ddng chinh nen hp ly k h a i va theo Noordin Top l a n h dao Do vay, cupc chien cho'ng k h i n g bo'tai Inddnexia trong nhflng n a m qua, t r e n thUc te, da khong m a n g lai Meu qua, mac
du tfl n a m 2002 den nay h a n g t r a m t h a n h
p h l n cua J l da hi b i t , t r u y to' va t i hinh Song nhflng t h a n h p h l n tre trong J I v i n d ben ngoai ldi keo va nudi t h a m vpng bien
Trang 3Phgm Anh, Nguyin Nggc Hoa - Bien ddi khi hdu trong mdi liin hi 45
Inddnexia t h a n h mpt quo'c gia Hdi giao cUc
doan Vdi ly do dd, t i n h Mnh cho'ng k h i n g
bo' tai quo'c gia ddng dan Hdi giao n h a t the
gidi nay v i n c h i c c h i n v i n chUa t h e dUdc
kiem che trong tUdng lai g i n
Thong thudng, chu nghia k h i n g bo' va
cac ye'u to' tac dpng c i a moi trUdng la hai
van de khong lien quan, nhUng t r e n thUc
te trudng hpp Inddnexia lai gpi y n h i e u
dieu thfl vi ve mo'i lien he t r e n N e n nhd
r i n g nhflng n a m g i n day Inddnexia dang
trd t h a n h ddi tac q u a n trpng c i a My trong
cupc chien cho'ng k h i n g bo' NhUng chinh
sU bie'n doi kM h a u , yeu to' t h u d n g trUc
c i a c i a viec Iam suy yeu va b a t dn c i a
nha nUdc Inddnexia, d a n g de dpa muc tieu
cua My (san s a n g giflp Inddnexia quet
sach cac nhdm q u a n sU Hdi giao, trong do
JI la mpt muc tieu) Tuy vay, nhflng n h a
hoach dinh v a n cho bie't r a n g , dfl chiu
bie'n ddi khi h a u hay khong, Inddnexia
cflng da la mpt n h a nUdc yeu xet t r e n cac
ye'u to' chinh tri, k i n h te va xa hpi
Vi tri dia ly gdp p h l n Idn vao viec bao
ve dat nudc nay t r a n h khdi cac hien tupng
bao gid m a n h , nhUng n h u da de cap, d a t
nUdc nay van p h a i chiu nhflng tdn t h a t
bdi Men tUpng E N S O , cai dUdc mieu t a
nhu la chu t r i n h k h i quyen dai dUdng
quan trpng n h a t t r e n t h e gidi vdi h a i
dang: El Nino va La NinaC') ENSO, theo
tinh toan, c h i yeu x u a t hien d vflng bien
nhiet ddi T h a i Binh DUdng va t i m b o a t
dpng tfl Ecuador de'n I n d d n e x i a ® Va cd
ve n h u van cdn qua sdm, song mot so'
b i n g chflng da cho t h a y r a n g bien ddi khi
hau cd the Iam gia t a n g bien dp va t i n so^
c i a cac sU kien moi trUdng lien q u a n de'n
ENSO trong tUdng lai^^^
Thd nhdt, E N S O cd t h e lam t a n g b a n
h a n va de dpa ldn de'n s a n x u a t ludng thUc,
mpt kich b a n gidng n h u n a m 1998 Theo
mpt nghien cflu ve b a n h a n t r e n toan the
gidi, ty le b a n b a n se t a n g deu trong sud't the ky XXI Den nhflng n a m 2090, ty le
k h u vUc dat chiu b a n b a n len den 30%, 40% va 50% vdi d c mflc dp cUc ky, ngMem trpng va kho b a n vfla phai*^°) Do'i vdi Inddnexia, h a n b a n va p h a rflng cflng cd
t h e Iam t r a m trpng t h e m t i n h t r a n g chay rflng, n h u da t h a y trong nhflng n a m 1997
- 1998^^^^ Chi rieng v a n de chay rflng trong giai doan ENSO 1997 - 1998, nd da cudp di c i a Chinh p h i Inddnexia 2,3 den 3,2 ty USD^^^) Ngoai r a cdn de Iai h a u qua
t r i m trpng do'i vdi sflc khde con ngUdi Ngan h a n g P h a t trien chau A Udc t i n h
r i n g It n h a t 19.000 ngUdi trong k h u vUc chiu a n h hudng c i a nhflng cpt khdi do chay rflng gay r a p h a i vao n h a p vien*^^^
Thii hai, mUc nUdc bien t a n g a n h
hudng sd'ng cdn den sU tdn tai c i a mpt so'
t h a n h pho' c h i chot c i a Inddnexia n h u
J a k a r t a va Surabaya^^'*^ Theo mpt nghien
c i u , nUdc bien t a n g cd t h e se n h a n chim
38 Km^ dat c i a t h i do J a k a r t a vao n a m
2030 va d i n de'n t h i e t h a i 1 ty USD^^) Cflng vdi nhflng tac dpng khac cua bien doi k h i hau, dieu nay se gay khd k h a n r a t ldn cho cupc song va di chuyen cU dan npi
do, va do dd, d mpt k h i a c a n h nao dd nd
a n h hudng den m a u t h u a n gifla cac tpc ngudi va ton giao k h a c n h a u thfl dich nhau, ma dieu nay h o a n toan cd t h e dUa den xung dot hoac bao lUc Chflng t a cflng nhd r a n g Inddnexia tfl lau da p h l i chflng kien nhieu xung dot lien q u a n den van de
di trfl hoac do chinh sach n h a nUdc hoac
do cac n h a n to'khac*^^^ Trong trUdng hpp xau n h a t - tUdng tU n h u sU kien n a m 1998
- qua t r i n h bie'n ddi khi h a u cd the se thflc day b a t dn va Iam xao trpn chinh tri, dan
c h i , hoac It n h a t lam s u t g i l m uy tin vao chinh p h i
N h u vay, qua cac p h a n tich tren, chung
ta t h i y r i n g trong bdi d n h c h i nghia
Trang 446 Nghiin cdu Ddng Nam A 8/2010
k h i n g bó d a n g h o a n h h a n h , moi trUdng
chinh tri cd a n h h u d n g r a t Idn dén sU b o a t
dpng c i a cac td c h i c đ Bién đi khi h a u
cd t h e khong p h a i la nguyen n h a n trUc
tiep tao r a cac b o a t dpng k h i n g bó, nhUng
nd gian tiep ho trp b a n g viec tao nen moi
trUdng chinh tri cd t h e cho phep nhflng
nhdm k h i n g bó b o a t dpng n h u n h a nUdc
yeu, n a n g lUc q u a n Iy n h a nUdc suy giam
va nhflng k h o n g gian khong dupc b i o
dam N a m 1998, t a n d u n g td't bói d n h
n h a nudc yeu, nhflng p h l n t i k h i n g bó da
hdi sinh d Inđnexia la mpt vi du sinh
dpng cho t h a y nhflng mói lien he gifla bien
đi khi h a u va c h i nghia k h u n g bộ H a y
he qua cua t h a m hpa sdng t h i n t a n p h a
n a m 2004, cac td c h i c k h i n g bó da g i i
q u a n den Aceh giflp sflc cho cac n h d m Hdi
giao, tuyen t r u y e n md rpng thdng diep ton
giao va t u y e n mp t h e m cac t h a n h vien
mdị Cd the ndi, bien đi k h i h a u , vdi tU
each la mpt t h a m hpa tU nhien, d a n g Iam
n h a nUdc suy yeu, va chinh nd gian tiep
tao r a "dieu kien chinh tri md" hay la sU
xuat Men cac "khong gian chflc nang" de
cac nhdm va p h l n t i k h u n g bd' dia phUdng
va toan c l u de doạ/
C H U T H I C H
1 Blustein, Paul "Mdonexia Asks for Ađitional
Aid" Washington Post, 11 July 1998
2 Geoff Spencer, "Police use clubs, sticks to
stop Indonexian protest" Associated
Press, 25 March 1998
3 Abuza, Zaeharỵ Militant Islam in Southeast
Asia: Crucible of Terror Boulder, CO:
Lynne Rienner, 2003, p.140-141
4 Abuza, Zaeharỵ Militant Islam in Southeast
Asia: Crucible of Terror Boulder, CO: Lynne
Rienner, 2003, p 141
5 Ten JI nghia la giao doan Hoi giao, ehinh thflc
dUde thanh lap ngay 1 thang 1 nam 1993 vdi vai tro cua AbduUah Simgkar va Abu Bakar Báasyir Tuy nhien, luc nay lanh dao cua JI phai an tranh 5 Malaysia do sU kiem duyet git gao cua Chinh phu Soeharto
6 Ve sau, Báasyir toan quyen lanh dao JI khi Sungkar chet
7 Henson, Robert "The Rough Guide to Chmate Change: Chmate Change and El Nino"
Weatherwisẹ (January/February 2007), p.32
8 Henson, Robert., p.329 Xem: Sang-Wook Yeh and Ben P Kirtman, "ENSO Amplitude Changes due to Climate Change Projections
in Different Coupled Models", Journal of
Climate, 20 (15 January 2007), pp 203-204;
WiUiam J Merryfield, "Changes to ENSO under C02 Doubling in a Multimodel
Ensemble", Journal of Climate, 19 (15 August
2006), p 4009-4011.10 Burke, Eleanor J., Simon J Brown, and Nieholaos Christidis
"Modeling the Recent Evolution of Global Drought and Projections for the Twenty-First Century with the Hadley Centre Climate
Model." Journal of Hydrometeorology 7
(2006), p.112211 Sunderlin, Wilham D
"Between Danger and Opportunity: Inđnexia and Forests in an Era of Economic
Crisis and Pohtical Change" Society and
Natural Resources 12 (1999), p.567
12 Taceoni, Lucạ Fires in Inđnexia: Causes, Costs
and Policy Implications-CIFOR Occasional Paper Nọ 38 Jakarta: Center for International
Forestry Research, 2003 http: www.eifor.cgiar.org/fire/pdfpdf23.pdf, p 13
13 Taceoni, Lucạ Fires in Indonesia: Causes,
Costs and Policy Implications-CIFOR Occasional Paper Nọ 38 Jakarta: Center for
Mternational Forestry Research, 2003 http: www.cifor.cgiar.org/fire/pdfypdf23.pdf, p.24
14 Hulme, Mike and Nicola Sheard Climate
Change Scenarios for Inđnexiạ Norwich,
UK: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 1999 http://www.crụueạ ac.uk/~mikeh/research/Ind6nexiạpdf
15 Xem "Flood risk rises with sea levels"
Jakarta Post, 25 January 2007
16 Collins, Elizabeth Fuller "Inđnexia: a
Violent Culturẻ" Asian Survey 42, no 4
(2002), p 588 -•,, '