Assessment of adaptive capacity of aquaculture households to climate change in cho moi district, an giang province, vietnam

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOIVIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY THAI TRONG NGHIA ASSESSMENT OF ADATIVE CAPACITY OF AQUACULTURE HOUSEHOLDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHO MOI DISTRICT, AN GIANG PROVI

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI

VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

THAI TRONG NGHIA

ASSESSMENT OF ADATIVE CAPACITY OF

AQUACULTURE HOUSEHOLDS TO

CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHO MOI DISTRICT,

AN GIANG PROVINCE, VIETNAM

MASTER’S THESIS

I assure that this thesis is the result of my own research and has not been published.The use of other research‟s results and other documents must comply with theregulations The citations and references to documents, books, research paper, andwebsites must be in the list of references of the thesis

Author of the thesis

THAI TRONG NGHIA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PLEDGE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF ABBREVIATION vii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT viii

FOREWORD

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Research issues

1.2 Research questions and objectives, and hypothesis

1.2.1 Research questions

1.2.2 Research objectives

1.2.3 Hypothesis

1.3 Background of the Study

1.3.1 Concepts

1.3.2 Research history

1.4 Study Area 16

1.4.1 Natural characteristic 16

1.4.2 Socio-economic and environmental characteristics 19

1.4.3 Characteristics of climate change and natural disaster of Cho Moi district 23

1.4.4 Characteristics of aquaculture activity in Cho Moi district 29

CHAPTER 2 METHODOLOGY 31

2.1 Research approach 31

2.2 Research methods 34

2.2.1 Secondary data 34

2.2.2 Establishing and developing a set of AC indicators 35

2.2.3 Data collection 37

2.2.4 Data analysis 42

CHAPTER 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 44

3.1 General information about the study areas 44

3.2 Characteristics of economy, society and environment of households 49

3.2.1 Economic characteristic 49

3.2.2 Social characteristic 52

3.2.3 Environmental characteristic 53

3.2.4 Climate change adaptation characteristics 65

3.3 Assessment of AC of aquaculture households 70

3.3.1 Overall AC assessment 70

3.3.2 Assessment of economic component 73

3.3.3 Assessment of social component 74

3.3.4 Assessment of environmental component 75

3.3.5 Assessment of CC adaptation component 76

CHAPTER 4 RECOMMENDATIONS TO INCREASE LOW ADAPTIVE CAPACITY INDICATORS OF AQUACULTURE HOUSEHOLDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHO MOI DISTRICT 78

4.1 Overview 78

4.2 Solutions to increase AC of aquaculture households in Cho Moi district 78

4.2.1 Recommendations for management solutions for the government 78

4.2.2 Recommendations for increasing autonomous adaptation for households 81

4.3 Technological recommendation for increasing AC of aquaculture households 82

4.3.1 RAS introduction 83

4.3.2 RAS strengths 86

Chapter 5 CONCLUSIONS 87

REFERENCES 89

APPENDIX 94

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1 Economic structure value of Cho Moi during the phase of 2014-2018 20

Table 2.1 Set of indicators to assess AC of aquaculture households in Cho Moi 355

Table 2.2 the number of aquaculture households was randomly chosen for data collection in Cho Moi district 37

Table 2.3 Parameters of water quality were directly measured at study sites 39

Table 2.4 The number of times to measure water samples at the study sites 41

Table 3.1 Average area and yield of aquaculture households at the study sites 48

Table 3.2 Profit margin of each aquaculture type at study areas 49

Table 3.3 SWOT matrix to analyze strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges of each aquaculture system 69

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Geographical location and natural condition map of Cho Moi district, AnGiang 17

Figure 1.2 A structure of the working-age population (left) and structure of

population capable of work in economic sectors (right) 21Figure 1.3 Water surface of Hau river (left) and Tien river (right) in flood season 22

Figure 1.4 Flooding peaks during 1998-2019 phase were measured at upstream anddownstream stations in An Giang province 24

Figure 1.5 The map of storm and depression trajectories impacted An Giang duringthe phase of 1951-2015 27

Figure 1.6 A landslide scene of a riverside resident along the Vam Nao river, ChoMoi district, An Giang 29

Figure 1.7 Profit margin of pangasius households in the phase of 2007-2012 was

proportionate with fluctuated peaks of Tien and Hau River in An Giang 30Figure 2.1 Cause and effect chain approach in climate change 31Figure 2.2 Study framework was applied to assess AC of aquaculture households 34

Figure 2.3 Residents on floating house was interviewed for data collection 38

Figure 2.4 The methods for the water sampling at inlet and outlet point 40

Figure 2.5 Water samples were collected at the study sites 41

Figure 3.1 The three aquaculture systems located in 6 commutes are shown onmaps of the study sites (red circle) 44

Figure 3.2 Popular aquaculture systems in Cho Moi district 46

Figure 3.3 Comparison of average members, labors and female labors betweenaquaculture types and Cho Moi district 47

Figure 3.4 Comparison of average household income and income per capita

between aquaculture systems and Cho Moi district 48

Figure 3.5 The scalability of aquaculture types at study areas 53

Figure 3.6 Waste treatment system of cement/rubber tank (left) and waste effluent

of floating house (right) at study sites 54

Figure 3.7 pH indexes of 3 systems were measured at the 3 different points 56

Figure 3.8 DO content of 3 systems was measured at the three different points 58

Figure 3.9 Temperature value of 3 systems was measured at 3 different points 59

Figure 3.10 COD content of 3 systems were measured at the 3 different points 61

Figure 3.11 NH4-N content of 3 systems were measured at the 3 different points .60

Figure 3.12 PO4-P content of 3 systems measured at the three different points 65

Figure 3.13 Quantities of solutions by model for CC adaptation and resilience to ashortage of water, inundation in flood season and extreme events 68

Figure 3.14 The result of AC assessment at different systems of aquaculture 71

Figure 3.15 The result of overall AC assessment of households in Cho Moi district 70 Figure 3.16 The assessment results show indicators increase/decrease AC 70

Figure 3.17 AC assessment of economic indicators by aquaculture systems 73

Figure 3.18 AC assessment of social indicators by aquaculture systems 74

Figure 3.19 AC assessment of environmental indicators by aquaculture systems 75

Figure 3.20 AC assessment of CC adaptation component by aquaculture systems 77 Figure 4.1 The survey result of household‟s anticipation for implementing RAS to improve their current farming practices 80

Figure 4.2 Diagram describes RAS operation 84

Figure 4.3 The composition of a mechanical filtration system 85

Figure 4.4 Three layers of a bio filter are introduced to purify water quality 85

Recirculating aquaculture system

The master thesis "Assessment of the Adaptive Capacity of AquacultureHouseholds to Climate Change in Cho Moi District, An Giang Province" wascompleted at the program of Climate Change and Development, Vietnam JapanUniversity, Vietnam National University, Hanoi I would like to thank all theteachers and staff who have fully supported and gave valuable comments to thisthesis

In particular, I would like to express my deepest thanks to the twosupervisors, Assoc Dr Koshi Yoshida and Dr Nguyen Tai Tue who not onlyclosely guide me on the knowledge and experience but also share the skills for me

to become a professional researcher In addition, I would like to thank someindividuals and units such as An Giang Rural Development Sub-Department, Mr.Huynh Van Thai, Head of Water Resource and Climate Change Department, AnGiang Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Mr Nguyen Van Tien -Head of Snakehead Farming Association of Long Kien Commune- Cho MoiDistrict, Master Nguyen Thi Hao who have provided the necessary information andcreated favorable conditions for me to complete this thesis This thesis is hugelysupported by the national projects, entitled “Research, assessment the impacts ofclimate change, disasters, human activities for proposing solutions, sustainabledevelopment models in adjacent areas of Hau River”, code: BĐKH.39/16-20

Once again, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all of those fortheir interest, encouragement, and motivation for me to fulfil my master's thesis.The precious things that I learned during the course of doing my thesis will help me

a lot in my future research

Sincerely!

Aquaculture in Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) plays important role inVietnam, its population as well However, many studies predicted that this area isone of the most vulnerable region by climate change and sea level rise in the world

In addition, the impacts of the upstream hydroelectric construction exacerbate theexisting problems VMD‟s aquaculture, therefore, is the most affected sectors byclimate and non-climate actors

The thesis title “Assessment of Adaptive Capacity of AquacultureHouseholds to Climate Change in Cho Moi District, An Giang Province, Vietnam”aimed to find out adaptive capacity (AC) to reduce vulnerability of aquaculturehouseholds in VMD to climate change A set of indicators to assess AC was created

by reliable studies, current policies on coping with climate change and reachingsustainable development goals (SGDs) The set was established with 17 indicatorsbelonging to 4 components CC adaptation (6 indicators), economy (5 indicators),society (3 indicators), and environment (3 indicators) The AC index was collected

by the two activities First, the study interviewed 60 households at 06 communes inCho Moi district that represent the three aquaculture systems (20households/system) to find out the score of AC1-AC15 Second, water qualitymeasurement was conducted at the aquaculture ponds to calculate the score ofAC16-AC17 The score of overall AC was totalled each individual indicator by theuse of Min-Max formula Sustainable solutions for aquaculture households weregiven to increase low AC indicators, especially technological solutions likerecirculating aquaculture system (RAS)

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION1.1 Research issues

Climate change (CC) is one of the biggest challenges for human beings in the

21st century It puts all natural-social systems at risk, particularly developingcountries (Eckstein, Hutfils, & Winges, 2018; C C IPCC, 2014; Weiss, 2009).Global warming, sea level rise, natural disasters and extreme weather events arethreatening throughout the world In particular, Vietnam is considered as one of themost vulnerable countries by CC (Eckstein et al., 2018; Van et al., 2012; Weiss,2009) Over the last half century, the average temperature increased by 0.62oC,while rainfall decreased in the North and increased in the South Extreme weatherevents such as storms, floods, subsidence, drought and saline intrusion have yearlyincreased in both frequency and intensity that claimed thousands of human life andhugely damaged on sustainable development goals (SDGs) (Beilfuss & Triet, 2014;MONRE, 2016)

CC is forecasted to affect many regions and socio-economic sectors inVietnam, especially low elevation regions and densely populated areas like theVietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) (Duong, Phi Hoang, Bui, & Rutschmann, 2016;IPCC, 2007; A L Tuan, Thuy, T.H., & Ngoan, V.V, 2014; VIMHE, 2011) According torepresentative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5, by the end of this century, the region'saverage temperature could increase by 3-3.5oC, rainfall could increase by over 20% andsea level rise by 48 - 106 cm The scenario for 1-meter sea level rise could make 38.9%

of the VMD area at risk of flooding, 35% of the population of losing their houses (Hoang

et al., 2018; MONRE, 2016) In the coming decades, CC in the VMD will unpredictablyfluctuate Temperature, precipitation, wind, and CC-related hazards will change infrequency, intensity, and duration (Hoanh, Jirayoot, Lacombe, & Srinetr, 2010) Frequentextreme weather events such as abnormal rains, floods, drought, changes in flow,subsidence and saline intrusion will seriously impact the area (Hoanh et al., 2010; MRC,2009; A

L Tuan, Thuy, T.H., & Ngoan, V.V, 2014) Several models have been developed tosimulate CC and its impacts on the VMD in the future In particular, most of studiesstated that CC and upstream hydropower development on the upstream MekongRiver will change the hydrological regime, as well as weather patterns (Beilfuss &Triet, 2014; Chinvanno, 2011; Duong et al., 2016; Hoanh et al., 2010; Wassmann,Hien, Hoanh, & Tuong, 2004) In the rainy season, increasing rainfall combineswith a rise of upstream flow will rapidly increase the flood peak and intensity thatmost of this region would be submerged (Plan, 2013; Team, 2018) In the dryseason, dozens of studies predict that drought will become more severe The risingsea levels together with the influence of upstream hydroelectric dams will makesaline intrusion reach deeper inland Therefore, rice production and freshwateraquaculture will be affected (Kam, Badjeck, Teh, & Tran, 2012; Kantoush, VanBINH, Sumi, & Trung, 2017).

The VMD is also known as the largest granary and fishery in Vietnam.Aquaculture plays a key role in the socio-economic development and livelihoods forthousands of households in this region According to the General Headquarter ofFisheries, this area accounted for 100% of the total area and production of

Vietnam‟s pangasius sector, and 92% of the total area, and 83% of the total

production of Vietnam‟s shrimp sector in 2016 Many studies demonstrated theMekong Delta was severely impacted by CC and extreme events (Barange et al.,2018; Beilfuss & Triet, 2014; Blumstein, 2017) The coastal zones of VMD, shrimpfarms, were seriously impacted by the historical drought event in the year 2016 Thesaltwater could reach 55-60 km in the Hau River and 45-60 km in the Tien River,being further inland 20-25 km than normal drought seasons This event only caused3.771 shrimp hectares to be damaged Lately, the 2020 drought is even moredamaging than the 2016 year when saltwater intrudes beyond the recent salineboundary In contrast to coastal area, the inland region, dominantly cultivates

freshwater fish like pangasius, had negative effects on aquaculture production due

to unstable annual floods At the upstream of VMD, a normal flood could bring

many benefits for locality and its inhabitants but the fluctuating flood peaks during

the 2007-2012 phase made the profit of pangasius producers varying For instance,

the lowest flood peak recorded in 2010 at the upstream of Tien and Hau river were

320 cm and 282 cm respectively, having the profit margin of (-3,020) VND/kgwhile the highest peak in 2011 was 486 cm and 427 cm, having the profit margin of3.187 VND/kg It proves that the freshwater aquaculture depends on the durationand flow of the flood

To mitigate CC consequences, the urgent solution is to improve resilience tovulnerable sectors through increased adaptive capacity (AC) and the adoption oftechnical and non-technical solutions (ADB, 2009; C C IPCC, 2014; F C IPCC,2014) (FAO, 2018) stated that CC awareness needs to be adaptable enough to copewith long-term, a sudden and unpredictable changing climate for fishery basedlivelihood communities The link between CC and sustainable development (Zarfl,Lumsdon, Berlekamp, Tydecks, & Tockner) plays a key role to manage fisheriescomprehensively Assessment of AC to CC has many levels, including household,community, sector, region and national level Specially, household level has theadvantages of coping well with natural disasters in the short term and reflects theactual position, the role of broad and complex policies and institutions in respondingwith CC (Elrick-Barr, Preston, Thomsen, & Smith, 2014; Navy,Krittasudthacheewa, Voladet, & Thin, 2019; Thomas, Christiaensen, Do, & Trung,2010) To date, various assessment methods of AC have used indicators that relate

to household level such as human, financial, economic, natural, social and economicissues, and infrastructure (Nhuan, Tue, Hue, Quy, & Lieu, 2016; Sietchiping, 2006;Thanvisitthpon, Shrestha, Pal, Ninsawat, & Chaowiwat, 2020) However, there havenot been many studies to advance the link between AC and SD indicators in theVMD

Cho Moi district, An Giang province is located geographically adjacent toTien and Hau rivers, two main tributaries of the Mekong River Freshwateraquaculture flourishes with a variety of aquaculture types and subjects However,

the combination of CC and upstream hydropower development has caused asignificant impact on this locality The issues of local people's livelihoods areconsidered in a few studies (Can, Tu, & Hoanh, 2013; Kam et al., 2012) There arelacked of study to assess the impacts of CC on the aquaculture in this area.

Therefore, the thesis "Assessment of the adaptive capacity of aquaculture

households to climate change in Cho Moi district, An Giang province, Vietnam" has

been chosen to give out solutions to the problems of aquaculture in the VMD

1.2 Research questions and objectives, and hypothesis

1.2.3 Hypothesis

Aquaculture production inherently depends on the water quality of the

Mekong River affected by climate change and human-made actors

1.3 Background of the Study

1.3.1 Concepts

Climate Change

“Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can beidentified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or thevariability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typicallydecades or longer Climate change may be due to natural internal processes orexternal forces such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, andpersistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in landuse” (IPCC, 2014)

Another definition is defined by UNFCCC as “The UNFCCC thus makes adistinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering theatmospheric composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes”

Climate change is also manifested by increasing the intensity, frequency andvolatility of extreme weather events such as heat, prolonged cold weather, droughtand saltwater intrusion, storms and tropical depressions, floods, etc Climate changethreatens all existing social systems and ecosystems, especially lowlands and coastalareas (Nhuan, 2016)

Vulnerability

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable tocope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability andextremes Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate ofclimate change and variation to which a system is exposed, the sensitivity andadaptive capacity of that system (IPCC, 2007)

Adaptive Capacity

IPCC defines adaptive capacity (AC) as “The ability of systems, institutions,humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage ofopportunities, or to respond to consequences.

(USAID, 2009b) defines that AC to CC is a society's capacity to change in away that makes it better equipped to manage risks or sensitivities from the impacts

of climate change

AC is a concept derived from ecological science to describe the ability of asystem to maintain or restore function in case of external impacts (Martin-Breen &Anderies, 2011) AC is a combination of all the strengths, attributes, and resourcesavailable to an individual, community, society, or organization that can be used toprepare and implement actions to reduce adverse effects and damage or takeadvantage of opportunities Adaptive capacity refers to the ability to anticipate andchange structures, functions, or organizations to better respond to the disaster (Tran

et al., 2015)

Current AC is an important condition for establishing and developing aneffective CC adaptation strategy (Brooks & Adger, 2005) AC is also seen as theopposite of vulnerability, as a key component of vulnerability assessment (Brooks

& Adger, 2005; IPCC, 2007)

AC consists of three main pillars: natural resilience, social resilience and theability to transform challenges into opportunities AC depends on factors such ashuman, infrastructure, finance, social capital, nature, information technology,institutions and equity (Nhuan, 2016)

AC is uneven and dispersed on a global scale (IPCC, 2007)

AC is heterogeneous in a society Many studies show that human capital andsocial capital are the two determinants of AC not less than other factors such asincome and technology level However, the two types of capital mentioned aboveare very uneven for different strata in society

Adaptation measures

AC is expressed through activities and measures of adaptation to reducevulnerability There are many different types of adaptation measures (technology,finance, information, institution, etc.) and are implemented at different levels(individuals, households, communities, industries, regions, and nations)

Adaptation measures were categorized by (USAID, 2009a) as follows:

+ Preventive adaptation: is the adaptation measures carried out before the impacts of CC occur in order to proactively prevent possible damages

+ Reactive adaptation (reactive adaptation): the adaptation measures are taken after the impact of CC has occurred to reduce the damage

- Based on policy considerations when implementing adaptation strategies:+ Autonomous adaptation: adaptation measures are conducted in a

"spontaneous" and "reflective" way (mainly of the private sector) in order to cope withactual impacts of CC underway without policy intervention These are usually temporaryadjustments and usually occur in the short term

+ Planned adaptation: adaptation measures are planned and take carefulconsideration of public sector policies to adapt to anticipated CC Planned adaptation is,therefore, often a proactive, strategic adjustment to address climate risks in a way thatmeets society's goals at best and often takes place over the long term

+ Private adaptation: adaptation measures are carried out by individuals, households, and businesses

+ Public adaptation: Adaptation measures are carried out by government agencies at all levels.

1.3.2 Research history

In the America

depends on the different types of weather from tropical to cold in various regions, andother factors like topography, economy, ecosystem, governance structure, and culture.The diversity and complexity of this area are and will affect vulnerability, risk, impact,and AC (F C IPCC, 2014)

(Wall & Marzall, 2006) assessed community-level AC in rural Canada Theauthors argued that improving capacity derived from both internal and externalfactors can increase the long-term sustainability of rural areas The method ofassessing AC at community level is given based on the literature review onsustainability to find out its application results The set of indicators and commonvariables is selected according to the specific event and the type of adaptation Theresearch uses the basic framework and profiling tool („amoeba‟) to describe latent

AC in the community The researchers classified AC indicators into 5 components,including society, people, institutions, nature, and economy The study concludesthat the indicators used in this study cannot be replicated in other rural communitiesbut the framework and profiling tool makes sense for future studies

(Simoes et al., 2010) study aims to improve AC for smallholders in semi-aridregions in Northeast Brazil This area is home to many poor people, who are mostaffected by CC The authors presented several specific initiatives to enhance AC ofthe Pintadas rural community Developing comprehensive methods is a basic step tohelp smallholder farmers adapt to CC The integration between AC and adaptationstrategy was introduced in order to develop an effective adaptation method to helpfarmers escape poverty and reduce the impact of CC The conclusion highlights theneed for a study of community vulnerability and practical experiences

(Selm, Hess, Peterson, Beck, & McHale, 2018) study conducted in NorthCarolina, US to assess household AC in the test area Because household-level ACwill affect resilience at the community level, it is necessary to have systematicmeasurement tools The authors used scales and tools to measure proactive ACaspects of urban households Applying a 4-capital livelihood approach: social,human, physical and financial, the study collected data from 200 households andchecked the effectiveness of scales and measuring instruments by analysing themain components The results of the study identified the effectiveness andpracticality of this approach when determining three main parameters: financialcapital, political awareness and access to resources to measure AC in differenthouseholds The findings match with other studies when selecting AC indicatorsrelated to income inequality and political awareness However, the researchemphasizes that this study should only be applied to urban areas because of thecomplexity in the relationships between livelihoods, financial, physical and human.

In Asia

CC has strongly impacted the region by increasing the frequency andintensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, drought, floods and tropicalstorms CC has increased the adverse conditions for the region The risks of watershortages, stagnant agriculture and food insecurity, forest fires, coastal degradation, andhuman health are threatening the region Therefore, improving AC is an urgent priorityfor Southeast Asia in the context of future climate change that is irregular andunpredictable Building resilience covering areas such as policies and institutionalframework, information and knowledge, social resources has been identified as priorities

in the near future (ADB, 2009)

(Defiesta & Rapera, 2014) paper identifies to determine the AC level offarmer households in the Philippines to find suitable adaptive solutions The set ofindicators were based on previous studies related to AC and vulnerability including

5 indicators of human resources, physical, financial, information and diversity

Differences in each resource of information, material and financial were the cause

of the changes in AC These three indicators determined the AC of the household tohigh or low Meanwhile, the author also found that farmers with high AC haveimplemented various adaptation measures

(Thanvisitthpon et al., 2020) developed a framework for assessing householdflood adaptation in urban areas of Thailand The set of AC indicators used forevaluation includes 06 components: economic resources, social resources,awareness and training, technology, infrastructure, institutions and policies.Statistical methods and structural equation models were applied to build suitableindicators and components This information was collected from householdinterviews in urban flood areas The study showed that if there are improvements ineconomic resources and infrastructure, AC will be high The framework of thisstudy can serve as a basis for assessing urban flood adaptability, and integratedflood risk management and assessment

(Thathsarani & Gunaratne, 2018) develops a set of AC indicators thatrespond to CC at the community and family level in Sri Lanka The authorshighlight that AC is constantly changing in each region, each community, and eachgroup A five-asset scales: economic, social, human, natural and physical scaleswere used to measure AC Many households were interviewed to collect the data.Using the Weighted Principle Component Analysis (WPCA), Multiple FactorAnalysis for Mixed Data and inter-household analysis to analyse household data.Research results showed that the types of assets were proportional to AC, includingsocial, physical and economic In contrast, humans were the type of property thatwas inversely related to AC Poor households, regardless of geography, had fewerresources The study offered recommendations to improve AC for households withless assets

In Africa

CC has had a severe impact on the ecosystem and is expected to be evenmore serious in the future CC in combination with non-climate actors and stresses willexacerbate the vulnerability of the agricultural system, especially in semi-arid regions.Achieved control risks during food production in the context of current and futureextreme weather events do not guarantee the safety in the long-term CC The continent'sadaptive experiences highlight valuable lessons to improve and expand adaptiveresponses (F C IPCC, 2014).

The study of (Abdul-Razak & Kruse, 2017) assessed the AC of smallholderfarmers in Ghana where CC severely affected agricultural production It implements

6 determinants to assess AC, including economic, social, awareness and training,technology, infrastructure and institutions The literature review and qualitativeinterviews with livelihood and agricultural experts were used to select 3-5 indicatorsper component Research results showed that awareness and training, economics,and technology were the most interested factors by farmers, while the other factorslike infrastructure, institutions and social capital are less important In addition,gender inequality and education levels made AC different among households andthe recommendations to improve AC for women and low-income people weregiven

In Europe

Climate change and sea level rise have a great impact on many regions,sectors, fields and ecosystems across the continent However, this continent is moreadaptive to CC than other continents (C C IPCC, 2014)

The ((Williges, Mechler, Bowyer, & Balkovic, 2017) study developed an ACassessment method to reduce the risk and damage of drought on agriculture inEurope The author used the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach method based onthe type of assets (capitals) to assess the future recovery and resilience of naturalsystems, human with CC variability The study assessed and forecasted that Centraland Northern Europe had higher AC levels than the rest However, the research also

had limitations with the lack of important data and background to identify how toselect AC indicators.

In Australia and New Zealand

Extreme weather events have caused significant damage to ecosystems andhuman in much of Australia and New Zealand The frequency and intensity of theseevents are expected to continue in the future Without adaptive solutions, manysectors and areas of this region such as water resources, marine ecosystems,infrastructure, health, agriculture and biodiversity will be threatened Adaptationplans and solutions in this area have been implemented and integrated but only atconceptual level rather than practical applications High AC in many systems butlimited in applicability, especially transition responses at local and communitylevels (F C IPCC, 2014)

(Keogh, Apan, Mushtaq, King, & Thomas, 2011) study was conducted inCharleville, a small town in rural Australia to study the vulnerability, resilience and

AC of communities here during the 2008 flood Both quantitative and qualitativemethods were used to analyse and assess the vulnerability of the community byinterviewing of households, business owners and local institutional staff The results

of the analysis show that Charleville was highly resistant to flooding, which wasmanifested by the highly-valued criteria for organization and operation, institutionalnetworks and social functions

(Sietchiping, 2006) applied AC and CC indicators to the north-west ofAustralia at industry and community level The set of indicators was formedprimarily based on government policies, expert advice and practical arguments thatconsists of three factors: social, economic, institutional/infrastructure These factorsrepresented the target groups of research subjects, as well as their adaptiveexperience to CC Each factor would have a different measurement and differentoperating environments The study used global positioning systems to collect andanalyse data and space of relevant indicators The weights, methods, and factors are

determined through a symposium of experts The paper concluded that adaptability across communities and across industry varies greatly spatially.

In Vietnam

CC adaptation strategies have been developed and implemented at differentlevels from households to regions The study of building a set of indicators to adapt to

CC has also attracted many researchers

(VIMHE, 2011) provided a set of technical guidelines on how to assessvulnerability and recommend adaptation measures That document includes 9 stepsfrom scenarios preparation for CC and sea level rise to releasing adaptation plans tothese events The impact assessment framework was set up to find out AC ofassessed by overviewing current adaptation measures and plans The assessmentmethod includes three components: assess the impact on natural environment (land,water, air, ecosystem and biodiversity, and marine), assess the impact on theeconomy, and assess the impact on society

(L A Tuan, Du, & Skinner, 2012) conducted a study and published a report

"Rapid assessment, synthesis of vulnerability and AC to CC in three coastal districts

of Ben Tre Province The authors used the method of "assessing CC adaptationbased on ecosystems" to conserve and restore ecological processes in order toenhance resilience and self-reliance Restoring ecosystems and communities to CCthrough maintaining ecosystem values that play a role in protecting and supportinghuman livelihood and production activities as well as public properties In thisreport, community AC is determined by assessing current coping and adaptivesolutions as well as ecological and institutional capacity to cope with hazards andrisks

The book of (Nhuan, 2016) on urban AC with CC is a premise for theresearch and development of AC assessment method in the future study Themethod was used to analyse, evaluate and suggest the model of SD urban andactively responds to natural disasters The research provided a common set of

indicators based on components including natural resilience, social resilience, theability to transform challenges into opportunities Due to distinct differences amongtopographic, economic, cultural, social characteristics, infrastructure, environment,etc., different AC indicators could be implemented at the different types of urbanregions The other study of (Nhuan et al., 2016) emphasized the importance ofincreasing AC components at the household level in coastal urban areas like DaNang An AC framework of 23 indicators was developed to collect socio-economicdata for urban households The research results showed that wealth indexes, housingconditions, long-term assets are highly appreciated, while indicators related tolivelihood diversity and knowledge with CC are underestimated The conclusionwas given that economic, social and adaptive methods are the determinants of urbanhousehold adaptation The set of indicators in this study can be applied to assess AC

in other coastal cities These studies are scientific basis, highly effective inproposing activities, solutions to adapt and respond to climate change In addition,there is another study on urban-level household adaptation, the study (Dung &Minh, 2019) conducted in Quang Dien district, Thua Thien Hue province A set of

AC indicators including 19 indicators in 4 components including economy,infrastructure, society and humans were built The findings indicated that mosthouseholds prefer to adopt adaptation measures in the short term Therefore, theresearch made some recommendations for households such as raising awareness andunderstanding of CC, improving infrastructure, diversifying livelihoods to increasetheir income that were main factors to increase AC

Several state-level scientific projects have also contributed to thedevelopment of AC indicators in different fields and levels The study of (Toan,2014) aims to build a set of criteria of community-based cc adaptation eco-village,

as a basis for designing and implementing as a norm for replicating that model inthe Mekong Delta region, especially coastal areas, much affected regions by CC andsea-level rise The study used some typical traditional methods such as expertinterviews, participatory rural appraisal (PRA) As a result, the project has

developed a set of criteria for ecological villages associated with people's lives andensures the climate change adaptation goals in the Mekong Delta The criteriainclude 8 components and 24 indicators as domestic water supply, domesticwastewater treatment, solid waste treatment, transportation, public lighting, energy,greenery, community houses.

A set of AC indicators serving for the CC state management was researchedand developed by (Huong, 2015) It has created an adaptive framework of 03 steps,including assessing the adaptive situation (step 1), evaluating the effectiveness ofadaptation activities (step 2), and assessing the adaptive results (step 3), respectivelywith 04 sets of indicators to find the desired data in term of natural resilience,vulnerability, ability to mitigate CC risks and the effectiveness of adaptationstrategies These indicators were based on previous studies and have specificscreening criteria The set of indicators is a basis for managers to assess and makeappropriate adaptive decisions for the locality However, the project notes thatprovincial/city managers need to build a database system to serve the calculation ofindicator sets or add some necessary parameters for calculating indicator sets

Another typical study is the topic of (Thang, 2015) that built a set of ACindicators as a scientific basis for the selection and improvement of CC adaptivemodels in the central provinces, Vietnam The set of indexes was formed throughthe 04-step process of Louise Twining-Ward The set of indicators included 14indicators corresponding to 04 components, including CC adaptation, economicefficiency, social efficiency and environmental efficiency Based on the results ofassessing the level of CC adaptation of the models, the project divided 40 modelsinto 5 levels: High, Fairly High, Medium, Low and Very Low The reliable results

of that study include a set of CC adaptive indicators that are the basis for assessingthe AC of climate change adaptation models in future scientific studies Besides, thetopic "Research and assess the impact of climate change, natural disasters andhuman activities to propose solutions and models of sustainable development alongthe Hau river" by Mai Trong Nhuan et al creates the set of criteria for evaluating

SD models in the field of aquaculture in Hau river areas in the context of CC,natural disasters and human activities based on a number of Vietnam's importantprograms and policies related to CC and SD There are 38 indicators and 06components: economic efficiency, social efficiency, environmental efficiency,climate change adaptation, mitigation adaptation, scalability The set is the basis forconducting evaluation studies on AC in the context of SD and finding appropriateadaptive strategies.

Figure 1.1 Geographical location and natural condition map of Cho Moi, An Giang

(Source: Long & Nguyen, 2018)Cho Moi terrain is mainly flat, alluvial plain, and small inclination Theaverage height is 1.3 - 3 m above sea level and gradually decreases from theriverside to the interior Thanks to silt accretion from the Mekong River, its soil isfertile and pH stability There are three main types of terrain: dunes, basin terrain,and inclined terrain (higher in the riverbanks and lower into the fields)

Temperature

Cho Moi lies in the typical tropical monsoon climate, high temperature, andlittle change During the period of 1985-2015, the average temperature was 27.4oC.The highest average temperature was April: 28.6-28.8o C, while the leasttemperature was January: 25.7oC From February, the average temperature increasesrapidly to the maximum one in April and then the temperature turns milder fromMay The year with the highest average monthly temperature was April 2010:30.3oC, and the lowest was December 1986: 24.3oC

Humidity

Humidity changes by seasons and is divided into dry and rainy seasons.During the period 1985-2015, the average annual humidity was 80-83% The lowestmonthly average humidity was April: 77-79%, coinciding with the time of droughtand little rain, while the highest monthly average humidity was September: 82-88%

Precipitation

Precipitation varies significantly over space and time and is divided into twoseasons throughout the year The rainy season lasts from May to November and thedry season lasts from December to April next year The annual rainfall ranges from1,200 – 1,500 mm/year The average annual rainfall in the rainy season accounts for83% - 89% of the total annual rainfall In contrast, rainfall in the dry season onlyaccounts for 11-17% of the total annual rainfall The difference between the months

with the highest rainfall (from August to October) and the months with the lowestrainfall (from January to March) is up to 300 mm.

During 1985-2015, the average annual rainfall ranged from 892-1,312 mm,the month with the average rainfall and the highest number of rainy days in October,with 155-239 mm and 14.7-18.9 days, while the month with average rainfall and thelowest number of rainy days was February, with 2-7mm and 0-0.3 days

Sunshine

An Giang is one of the provinces having a long time of sunshine withaverage hours of 2,482 hours/year During the period 1985-2015, the number ofsunshine hours tended to decrease The year with the longest time of sunshine was2,854 hours, in contrast, the year with the shortest time of sunshine hours was 2,130hours In the dry season, from December to April was the month with the mostsunshine time, the average monthly was from 220-250 hours, each day had anaverage of 7-9 hours In the rainy season, the less sunny months were from August

to October, the average sunshine time per month was 150-160 hours, in which eachday had 5-6 hours The difference in the number of sunshine hours between therainy and dry season months reflected clearly features of the separate seasons

Wind

Cho Moi has a tropical monsoon climate and is influenced by the northeastand southwest monsoon Due to the change in atmospheric circulation patterns, thewind regime also changes From May to November, the prevailing wind direction isthe Southwest, but the east wind direction has a negligible frequency FromDecember to April of the following year, the prevailing wind direction in thisseason is a high frequency of Southeast to South winds The west winds have a notsignificant frequency

Hydrology

The whole district has 03 main rivers, namely Tien, Hau, and Vam Nao River(the Mekong river system), with a length of 190.3 km The average annual waterflow is 13,500 m3/s Water flow can reach 24,000 m3/s during the flood season, anddowns 5,020 m3/s during the dry season In addition, the district also has 653 canalsand inner field canals with a total length of 271.3 km The hydrological regime ofthe district is mainly influenced by the semi-diurnal tide regime in the East Sea and

is influenced by Mekong river flows, inland rainfall regime, and morphologicalcharacteristics of canals

Due to the flood starting in the rainy time, 70% of the land area in An Giangprovince, including Cho Moi, was flooded in the years of 2000s, with a rising waterlevel of 1-2.5m The inundation period was from 2.5 to 5 months, from the middle

of August to December However, up to now, after the enclosed dike system hasbeen put into operation, it has changed the flood situation in the locality In the dryseason, some areas have localized but not serious water shortage In general,agricultural production activities are still relatively smooth

1.4.2 Socio-economic and environmental characteristics

Economic characteristic

The economic structure of Cho Moi district consists of two main pillars: (1)agricultural, forestry and fishery production, and (2) industrial production -construction and trade The value of commodity production of the two above fieldsincreased in the period 2014-2018 The sector value (1) in 2014 was VND 9,436.3billion, in 2018, it increased slightly to VND 10,342.73 billion, in which only thefishery group grew in the total value structure (1) increased from 13.75% to 28.31%

in 2018 The sector value (2) increased rapidly from VND 7,617.8 billion in 2014 toVND 10,219.17 billion in 2018 (see table 1.1)

Table 1.1 Economic structure value of Cho Moi during the phase of 2014-2018

the following year higher than the previous year, specifically, the average income

per capita in 2018 reached 46.64 million VND, an increase of 7.44 million VND

compared to 2017

Social characteristic

Cho Moi district has 16 communes and 02 towns An average population of

the district in 2018 of 348,206 people, of which female was 175,728 people The

rate of natural increase was 0.97% The average population density was 943

people/km2 The population was not evenly distributed in the district area, mainly

concentrated in urban areas such as Cho Moi town, My Luong town, Kien Thanh

commune, My An commune, Long Giang, and Hoa An commune with a populate

density of more than 1,000 people/km2, and sparse in the communes of An Thanh

Trung, Binh Phuoc Xuan, with a density of fewer than 700 people/km2

1.66%

5.75%

3813 25175

4.13%

20958

88.47%

Construction

OthersFigure 1.2 A structure of the working-age population (left) and structure of

population capable of work in economic sectors (right)The total number of people of working age in 2018 was 212,521, accounting

for 61.03% of the total population of the district, including 188,007 employed

21

laborers Classified by economic structure, the total number of people working inthe national economic sectors is 188,007 people, of which the field of agriculture,forestry, and fishery is at large with 71,681 people, industry and handicrafts with33,489 people, construction with 6,019 people, services with 20,958 people,commerce with 25,175 people, and other sectors with 3,813 people (see figure 1.2).

The structure of the working-age population in the district varied slightly butwas generally stable over years However, the number of people who were able towork in all economic sectors, the number of people of school age and the number ofpeople without stable jobs tended to increase, the increase rates were respectively0.079%, 1.53% and 2.01%; in contrast, the number of people who were unable towork tends to decrease, the reduction rate was 6.49% The number of laborerscapable of working in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries tended to decrease, with adecrease of 0.035%

Environmental characteristic

Figure 1.3 Water surface of Hau river (left) and Tien river (right) in flood seasonWater quality parameters change at different times and places (see figure1.3) During the flood season, the DO index was high due to strong water flow, andvice versa during the dry season, the DO was low Meanwhile, the density of BODand total suspended solids (TSS) always exceeds the permitted limit many times

The remaining parameters NH4-N, PO43- fluctuated around the permitted content foraquaculture According to the 2019 report of An Giang Department of NaturalResources and Environment, surface water quality on the Hau river was lower thanthe Tien river; however, most measured environmental parameters of the two waterbodies were only used for irrigation, aquaculture, and water transportation.

Surface water quality in Cho Moi district in particular and An Giang ingeneral, has been affected by many factors Firstly, over-exploitation of naturalresources, minerals in the river basin, and overproduction of aquaculture in the riverhave reduced the quality of surface water and ecosystems in this area Next, theestablishment and development of industrial zones and production facilitiesexacerbated the situation of surface water pollution These facilities are so small,scattered, without centralized waste and wastewater treatment systems In addition,the system of stilt houses along banks of rivers and canals is dense and people therehave a habit of directly discharging into the rivers, without collection and treatmentsystems Finally, an equally important factor is climate change, and thedevelopment of hydroelectricity dams at the upstream often diminishing surfacewater quality and deteriorated environmental standards

1.4.3 Characteristics of climate change and natural disaster of Cho Moi district

Flooding

The changes in water level and flood flow to the delta were also considered

to be partly influenced by flow volatility from the upstream which frequently causedconsecutive small flood years from 2002 to the present, except for large floods in

2011 The course of flood in recent years also has unusual changed The 2014 largeflood appeared prior to the 2015 small flood, contrary to the law of flood operation.Floods irregularly occur up to half a month later than before and the duration offloods was shorter, especially in 2013 and 2015

In the period from 1998-2019, the peak of flood measured at thehydrographic stations in An Giang province largely fluctuated The year 2000 was

the flood peak reached the highest and the year 2015 was the lowest peak Thewater level in Tien and Hau's rivers measured at upstream and downstreamlocations in these points was significantly different At the upstream, on the TienRiver, the peak of the flood measured at Tan Chau station was 506 cm in 2000,suddenly reduced to 255 cm in 2015, while at the Hau River at Chau Doc station,the flood peak decreased correspondingly from 490 cm to 235 cm At the sametime, the flood peak measured at the downstream, on the Tien River at Cho Moistation had a sudden decrease from 358 cm to 220 cm, while on the Hau River atLong Xuyen station, a corresponding decrease from 263 cm to 216 cm (see figure1.4).

Figure 1.4 Flooding peaks during 1998-2019 phase were measured at upstream and

downstream stations in An Giang province(Source: An Giang Committee for Incidents and Disaster Response, and Search and

Rescue)

In the early 2000s, flood season in An Giang regularly appeared with greatintensity and frequency The province had issued the project 31 /ĐA.BCS andDecision 1536/QĐ-UBND "exploiting the advantages of flooding season" to help

people mitigate losses and to live in harmony with floods The project hadpositively supported for people to develop effective models and trades in the floodseason such as fishing net production, aquatic vegetable planting, interwovenweaving, etc The most striking result of the project was the harmonization ofeconomic benefits and the environment, ensuring both increased their income andcompensate alluvium and wash alum to improve their soil Therefore, theorientation of agricultural production of the province in this period is to "live withfloods" for a long time.

Due to both objective and subjective reasons, the situation of large floods hasnot occurred frequently in the province since 2003 up to now (except for the year of2011) that forced the province to propose corrective measures and adapt to changes.Implemented solutions during this period achieved certain results, helping farmers

to increase income through increasing productivity and agricultural output Thepolicy orientation of the province was focusing on economic development,increasing agricultural production, contributing to ensuring food security but alsoarising a several consequences such as the depletion of land, water resources, andecosystem destruction

Predicted low flood situation and climate change would still be lasting in thecoming decades An Giang agriculture and aquaculture sector are and will facemany potential risks, especially the significant increase in production costs, andthreaten the ecological environment Therefore, the province needs to havebreakthrough solutions and strategic steps to balance economic and environmentalfactors, and inspires the motto of “developing agriculture associated with solutions

to cope with the degradation of water resources due to climate change and theimpact of water use activities in the upper VMD”

Drought and sea level rise

Because of topography without the sea, An Giang was not affected bydrought and saline intrusion over the last 5 years However, these extreme events

have been increasing in intensity and frequency In particular, salinity concentration

in the dry season 2015-2016 increased to 0.01-0.2 ‰ at where has a border withKien Giang province For the reason that the dry season in that year was the result

of the abnormal low flood peaks of the year after

According to the Department of Natural Resources and Environment of AnGiang, there was a large fluctuation in water flow in the Mekong River Theunusually rapid decline in the early dry season and abnormally slow rise at thebeginning of the rainy season were the main causes of drought in the upstream ofVMD The accumulation and discharge of hydropower reservoirs have altered theflow in the downstream Although the average water flows during the dry seasonincreased, the downstream flow changes were detrimental to agricultural productionand fisheries

Cho Moi district is located far away from the saline area, so it is not availablestatistics of this phenomenon impacts on the economy, society in general, andaquaculture activities in particular In some areas, prolonged drought has led tochanges in soil structure causing landslides in some areas of the district

Tropical cyclones and depressions

The Mekong Delta is less affected by storms and tropical depressions thanother regions across the country In the period of 1951 - 2015, the whole regionlightly impacted by 09 tropical storms from the East Sea (see figure 1.5), excludingfrom Lynda storm in 1997 That typhoon left 3,000 people dead, 200,000 housesdestroyed, 83,000 people homeless and causing $385 million in economic damage(Takagi & Le Tuan Anh, 2017)

Figure 1.5 The map of storm and depression trajectories impacted An

Giang during the phase of 1951-2015(Source: http://kttv.angiang.gov.vn/ban-do-khi-hau)Cho Moi district is located far from the storm center, no damage statisticshave been recorded in the above period The impact of typhoons in this area wasmainly the heavy rains accompanied by tornadoes, which inundated and stagnatedlocal agricultural production activities This phenomenon usually lasts from August

to November, coinciding with the rainy season

Heavy rain and whirlwind

In An Giang, heavy rain and whirlwind often occur from April to November,coinciding with the rainy season These phenomena depend on the topography,periods of the rainy season However, these extreme events have happenedabnormal and unpredictable over 5 years The consequences annually cause littledamage to humans but significantly destroy local property, agriculture, and

aquaculture The most affected communes by whirlwinds are Tan Chau, Phu Tan,Cho Moi, Tinh Bien, and An Phu.

Cho Moi district is less affected by whirlwind compared to other localities in

An Giang Affected communes were often located along Tien and Hau rivers such

as Hoi An, Binh Phuoc Xuan, Hoa Binh, Nhon My, Long Kien, Kien An, My HoiDong, Long Giang, and Long Dien A Notably in 2016, a whirlwind in Cho Moidistrict killed 01 people, damaged 39 houses, 4.717 ha of agricultural productionarea, the value of the damage was about 29,937 million VND, according to Cho Moipeople‟s committee

Land erosion

Riverbank erosion is one of the threats to the lives and property of people inthe Mekong Delta, which An Giang is one of the localities most seriously affected.The time of occurrence of landslides is often in the dry season and the beginning ofthe rainy season There are many causes of the serious situation in upstreamprovinces rather than the downstream Mainly due to the influence of upstreamdams associated with mining activities, and socioeconomic factors have made theamount of mud and sand decline seriously, reducing the possibility of sedimentaccumulation, change the water flow, the geological structure of the riverbank,tectonic movement of the river

In the period of 1989-2014, the landslide in An Giang province took place at

a very fast level, highest in the period 2000-2005 (average speed of 318.97 ha/year),the period of 2014-2017 was slower with average speed (28.38 ha/year) The totaldamaged area of this period was 3146.94 ha (Điệp, Minh, Trường, Thành, & Vinh,2019) According to the report of An Giang Department of Natural Resources andEnvironment, the whole province has 52 river sections at risk of erosion, with a totallength of 44,000m along Tien River, Hau River, and small tributaries of the MekongRiver For instance, 07 communes and towns were listed at risk of riverbanklandslides, of the Tien River including Kien An commune, Cho Moi

town, Long Dien A commune, My Luong town, Tan My commune, commune MyHiep, Binh Phuoc Xuan commune; with 6 communes of the Hau river: My HoiDong, Nhon My, An Thanh Trung, Hoa Binh, Hoa An Kien An.

Figure 1.6 A landslide scene of a riverside resident along the Vam Nao river, Cho

Moi district, An Giang(Source: baoangiang.com.vn)

1.4.4 Characteristics of aquaculture activity in Cho Moi district

According to 2018 statistical yearbook, Cho Moi district has 453 aquaculturehouseholds with an area of 395 hectares, the second-largest in An Giang province.There were was 371.38 ha of the farming area in the earthen pond and 923 floatinghouses The total aquaculture production was 88,076 tons Compared to 2014, thenumber of aquaculture households decreased by 12.55%, but the area increased by30.35% Other figures such as the area of the earthen pond, the number of floatinghouses, and aquaculture production increased by 30.35%, 108%, and 38.28%,respectively

Aquaculture activities in Cho Moi district were generally less directlyaffected by CC and extreme weather but have indirectly impacted on thefluctuations of production cost due to these events During the flooding season

period from 2007 to 2012, the profit of pangasius fluctuated