Chapter 29 - Fiscal policy. After studying this chapter you will be able to understand: What the difference is between contractionary and expansionary fiscal policy? How fiscal policy can counteract short-run fluctuations? What challenges are associated with fiscal policies?...
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Chapter 29
Fiscal Policy
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and expansionary fiscal policy
fluctuations
policies
government budget
deficit and debt
are
What will you learn in this chapter?
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about the level of taxation or government
spending
Fiscal policy
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Fiscal policy can be either expansionaryor contractionary.
• Increased government spending and lower taxes have expansionary effects.
• Decreased government spending and higher taxes have contractionary effects.
Fiscal policy
AD1
LRAS
SRAS
Y1
P1
Y1 P1
Y2 AD2 Y2
AD2 P2
Price level
Output
Price level
AD1
LRAS
SRAS
Output P2
• Expansionary fiscal policy shifts the AD
curve to the right.
– Output increases.
– Prices increase.
• Contractionary fiscal policy shifts the AD curve to the left.
– Output decreases.
– Prices decrease.
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• Policy-makers try to use fiscal policy to smooth
fluctuations in the economy
• The AD/AS model illustrates how fiscal policy
can counteract the effects of economic shocks
– The model predicts that the economy can
automatically correct itself.
– Lawmakers often intervene because automatic
correction can be a painful and slow process.
Policy response to economic fluctuations
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P1
Y1 AD2 P2
Y
Initial market response to fall in AD
Price level
AD1
LRAS
SRAS
Output
2
2 P
Y
AD3 Y3 P3
2
Expansionary fiscal policy restores some AD Price level
AD1
AD
LRAS
SRAS
Output
• The government can spend more or tax less
• Often called “Keynesian” economic policy.
• The expansionary policy increases aggregate demand.
• Output and price levels increase.
Expansionary policy responses
Expansionary policy can counteract decreases in AD
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AD2 SRAS
P1
Y1
P2
Y2
Price level
AD1
LRAS
Economy overheats from too much AD
Output
• The government can spend less or tax more.
• The contractionary policy decreases aggregate demand.
• Output and price levels decrease.
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AD2
AD1
LRAS
SRAS
AD3 P
Y2
Price level Contractionary fiscal policy lowers prices and output
Output P
Y3
Positive economic shocks may cause the economy to expand too
rapidly Contractionary policy can counteract increases in AD.
Contractionary policy responses
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• Why should any government wait for the
economy to correct itself when it can do the
work much more quickly?
• Fiscal policies are often educated guesses
• Time lags between when policies are chosenand
when they are implementedoften cause fiscal
policy to be ineffective or even harmful:
1 Information lag: Understanding the current
economy.
2 Formulation lag: Deciding on and passing
legislation.
3 Implementation lag: Time to affect the economy.
Time lags
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• Automatic stabilizers are taxes and government
spending that affect fiscal policy without specific
action from policy-makers
– As earnings rise, higher tax rates apply This puts a
check on overall spending.
automatic stabilizers
– Unemployment insurance benefits and welfare
programs have eligibility criteria based on income or
unemployment status.
Policy tools: discretionary and automatic
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• Policy-makers can also use discretionary fiscal
policy, which refers to adjusting tax rates in
response to economic conditions
– Information, formulation, and implementation lags
can reduce the effectiveness of such policy.
• Discretionary policy may be used when
automatic stabilizers are unsuccessful in
correcting the economy
Policy tools: discretionary and automatic
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• Politicians often cut taxes in response to
recessions
• Tax cuts aren’t free because the government
must find a way to make up for lost tax
revenue
• Ricardian equivalence predicts that if there are
tax cuts but no decrease in spending, people
will not change their behavior
– People realize that the government will have to
borrow money and at some point taxes will
increase.
Limits of fiscal policy: The money must
come from somewhere
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• Changes in tax rates and government spending
have different effects on the economy
• Economists use a multiplier that measures the
effect of government spending or tax cuts on
national income
• The multiplier effectis the increase in
consumer spending that occurs when spending
by one person causes others to spend more
too
– This amplifies the impact of the initial government
policy on the economy.
The multiplier model
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someone hires a builder to construct a deck for
$5,000
– This decision adds $5,000 to national GDP.
vacation that he couldn’t have afforded before he
built your deck
– This decision adds $3,000 to national GDP.
more than the original amount of the deck
– This is the multiplier effect.
The multiplier model
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• To determine how much more GDP increases, the
multiplier uses the proportion of income people spend.
• Consumption is based on the amount of income left
after paying taxes.
– People usually consume part of their income and save the
rest.
• The amount consumption increases when after-tax
income increases by $1 is called the marginal
propensity to consume (MPC).
– The MPC is a number between 0 and 1.
– It equals the fraction of an additional dollar that is spent
when an individual receives an additional dollar of income.
• For example, a MPC of 0.8 means that 80% of an
additional dollar of income is spent and 20% is saved.
Deriving the multiplier
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Consider the following situations where there is an
increase in income that leads to an increase in
consumption expenditures.
• Calculate the marginal propensity to consume (MPC).
Active Learning: Deriving the MPC
Situation Increase in Income ($)
Increase in Consumption Expenditures ($)
Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC)
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• The government-spending multiplieris the
amount that GDP increases when government
spending increases by $1
Government−spending multiplier = 1
1 − MPC
• A smaller MPC results in a smaller
government-spending multiplier
• A larger MPC results in a larger
government-spending multiplier
Multiplier effect of government spending
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Consider a situation where the marginal propensity to
consume is 0.6
• Calculate the government-spending multiplier.
• Use this to determine how much GDP will increase if
the government spends $10 million on federal
highway repairs.
Active Learning: Government-multiplier effect
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• The taxation multiplier is the amount that
GDP decreases by when taxes increase by
$1.
Taxation multiplier = −MPC
1 − MPC
• The multiplier effect of tax cuts is smaller
than the effect of government spending.
• Tax cuts boost GDP indirectly through an
effect on consumption.
Multiplier effect of government transfers
and taxes
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Consider a situation where the marginal
propensity to consume is 0.6
• Calculate the taxation multiplier
• Use this to determine how much GDP will
increase if there are $10 million in tax cuts
Active Learning: Taxation multiplier effect
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The impact of tax cuts and government spending
varies by the MPC
The government spending and taxation
multipliers
Marginal
propensity to
Consume (MPC)
Government-spending multiplier
1/(1 – MPC)
A $500 million stimulus would increase GDP by:
Taxation multiplier
MPC/(1 – MPC)
A $500 million tax cut would increase GDP by:
0.2 1.25 $625 million –0.25 $125 million
0.4 1.67 $835 million –0.67 $335 million
0.6 2.50 $1.25 billion –1.50 $750 million
0.8 5.00 $2.50 billion –4.00 $ 2 billion
• Note that for the same MPC, the government spending
multiplier is higher than the taxation multiplier
• The difference is greater as the MPC increases.
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economy by changing the amount it spends or
taxes
and transfer paymentsas expenditures
–Transfer paymentsare payments from the government
to individuals for programs that don’t involve a
purchase of goods or services.
The government budget
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• The government may budget expenditures greater than
income by issuing debt.
– The budget deficit is the amount of money a government spends
beyond its revenue.
– The budget surplus is the amount of revenue a government brings in
beyond what it spends.
The government budget
Billions of 2010 dollars Percent of GDP
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Billions of constant 2010 dollars Percent of GDP
Since the 1940s, the U.S has consistently maintained a budget deficit.
U.S government deficit since 1940
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• Public debtis the total amount of money that a
government owes at a point in time.
– Public debt is the cumulative sum of deficits and surpluses.
The public debt
Total debt in billions of 2010 dollars Percent of GDP
0 25 50 75 100 125
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Billions of 2010 U.S dollars Percent of GDP
U.S government debt since 1940
U.S government debt has risen rapidly in the last decade, with
larger budget deficits.
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Almost every country in the world has some debt.
The public debt
31.9 60.7 61.3 67.4 109 147.8 183.5
Country (rank)
Public debt as a percent of GDP
0 50 100 150 200 Korea (24)
Ireland (12)
United States (11)
France (10)
Italy (3)
Greece (2)
Japan (1)
Debt in various OECD countries, 2010
There is a wide discrepancy in the amount of debt owed among
countries.
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Is government debt good or bad?
Benefits of government debt
• It allows the government to
be flexible when something
unexpected happens.
• Government debt can pay
for investments that lead to
economic growth and
prosperity
Costs of government debt
• The direct cost associated with government debt is the interest on borrowing.
• There are indirect costs associated with government debt distorting credit markets.
• The government must consider who bears the burden of the debt.
• People today benefit when the government borrows, but future
generations will have to repay the loans.
Most economists believe that some debt is necessary to have a
smoothly functioning government What are the costs and
benefits?
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• The level of taxation and government spending
is called fiscal policy
– Expansionary fiscal policy can be used during a
recession to increase AD.
– Contractionary fiscal policy can be used during a
boom to decrease AD.
• The government might want to change fiscal
policies to counteract economic fluctuations
Summary
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• The two main challenges the government faces
when implementing fiscal policy are time lags
and Ricardian equivalence
• The government-spending multiplier measures
how much output increases when government
spending increases
• The taxation multiplier measures how much
output increases when taxation falls
• The government-spending multiplier is larger
than the taxation multiplier
Summary
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• The government budget includes all of the
revenue it collects in taxes and the money it
spends on government programs
– There is a deficit when the government spends
more than it collects.
– There is a surplus when the government collects
more than it spends.
• The public debt is the total amount of money
that the government has borrowed over time
Summary