Impacts of climate change on food security in vietnam

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIESVIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN VIETNAM A thesis submitte

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES

VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

SECURITY IN VIETNAM

BYHuYNH THJ NHI

MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

HO CHI MINH CITY, January 2013

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES

VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN VIETNAM

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

By

HuYNH THJ NHI

Academic SupervisorPh.D NGUYEN HUU DUNG

HO CHI MINH CITY, January 2013

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION i

ACKN" OWLEDGEMENT • ii

ABSTRACT iii

LIST OF TABLES iv

LIST OF FIGURES v

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS vi

Chapter 1 1

INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT 1

1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVIVES 3

1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 3

1.4 RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS 4

1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY 4

Chapter 2 • 6

LITERATURE REVIEW • • 6

2.1 BASIC CONCEPT AND DEFINITION 6

2.1.1 Greenhouse gases (GHGs) 6

2.1.2 Emissions 6

2.1.3 Climate Change 6

2.1.4 Climate Change Scenario 9

2.1.5 Sea Level Rises 10

2.1.6 Food Security 10

2.1.7 Scenario 11

2.1.8 Simulation II 2.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 11

2.2.1 Theoretical Literature II 2.2.2 Empirical Studies 17

2.2.3 Conceptual Framework 24

2.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 26

Chapter 3 26

CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, FOOD SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM 27

3.1 CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, AND FOOD SUPPLY 27

3.1.1 Paddy Production 27

3 1.2 Domestic Rice Consumption and Export 32

3.2 CURRENT SITUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE 35

3.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 35

Chapter 4 39

METHODOLOGY AND DATA 39

4.1 METHODOLOGY 39

4.2 SOURCE OF DATA 43

4.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 44

Chapter 5 45

DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 45

5.1 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD IN MEKONG DELTA 45 5.2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS IN VIETNAM UP TO 2030 49

5.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 58

Chapter 6 59

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 59

6.1 SUMMARY OF THE STUDY AND CONCLUSIONS 59

6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS 60

6.3 LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER RESEASRCHES 61

REFERENCES 63

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I declare this is the scientific research of my own Data collection and analysis in thispaper is truthful, not distorted This paper is not copied from the others In my research, Ihave used some data from previous studies which were studied by official organizations.For these data, I have already written the sources clearly below in tables as well as inpaper's Appendix and References

I hereby undertake responsibility for the contents of my thesis And I certify that thisstudy has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being currently submittedfor any other degree

Ho Chi Minh City, January 2013

Huynh Thi Nhi

p

Fist of all, I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr Nguyen Huu Dung for hisintellectual support and his wonderful inspiration I am grateful for his support andkindness in helping me at every stage of my research His knowledge about ruraldevelopment and environment issues has helped me to understand and enjoy thoseissues The suggestions and comments from him are significant which was improved myresearch Without his understanding and encouragement, I would not complete thispaper Secondly, my thanks go to Dr Nguyen Van Ngai, who was given some hints for

my topic as well as methodology in the first step

In addition, I also would like to thank Dr Ha Thuc Vien and Dr Tran Tien Khai whotaught me the deep knowledge of the economic environment as well as inspired me toenvironment issues

Finally, my thanks go to my family and my friends who were at my side and supported

to me throughout this program I would not fmished my course unless theirencouragements

II

This paper studies how climate change impacts on national food security Econometric model is used to estimate from the secondary data as pool data of Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010 The Cobb-Douglas functional form is applied for the average yield function The result indicates that in Cobb-Douglass model, as the temperature rises by 1%, the estimated decrease the rice yield is 0.45% and the rice yield also decreases 0.15% on average when the precipitation increases 1%, holding all other factors constant The qualitative analysis and simulations with different scenarios are also applied to build on Vietnam's food security scenarios up to 2030 The findings show that Vietnam has to face the lack of rice for consuming up to 2030 in IPSL-2030 climate change scenario This country needs to add 4.2 million tons ofrice to ensure food security

at the national level Meanwhile, in GISS-2030 and MORNE-2030 scenarios, Vietnam is still ensure for domestic consume, and the surplus rice for export in these two scenarios are 0.4 and 1.5 million tons, respectively.

Ill

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1: Summary of Empirical Studies about Impacts of Climate Change on

Agriculture and Food Security 20

Table 3.1: Paddy Yield by Regions ofVietnam, 1995-2010 31

Table 3.2: Domestic Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 1995-2010 32

Table 3.3: Rice Export Volume of Vietnam, 1995-2010 33

Table 5.1: Descriptive Statistics of Data 45

Table 5.2: Panel Unit Test Results 47

Table 5.3: Estimation Results 47

Table 5.4: Average Annual Temperature increase in Degrees by Agro-ecological Zones 49

Table 5.5: Average% Changes in Annual Precipitation by Agro-ecological Zones 50

Table 5.6: Rice Yield Change under Climate Change Scenarios 50

Table 5.7: Estimated Rice Planted Area versus Impact of Climate Change up to 2030 51

Table 5.8: Forecasted Domestic Demand of Food in Vietnam up to 2030 53

Table 5.9: Balancing Paddy Supply and Paddy Demand in Vietnam until 2030 54

Table 5.10: Food Security Scenarios up to 2030 by CAP-IPSARD 55

Table 5.11: Climate Change Scenarios and Food Security Scenarios up to 2030 56

iv

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1: Global Warming and Changes in the Climate System 8

Figure 2.2: Climate Change and Food Security 15

Figure 2.3: The Linkage between Climate Change and Food Security 25

Figure 3.1: Paddy Statistic in Vietnam, 1995-2010 27

Figure 3.2: Cultivated Paddy Area by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010 29

Figure 3.3: Distribution ofVietnamese Paddy Production (average 1995-2010) 30

Figure 3.4: Average Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 2000-2006 33

Figure 3.5: The Share Rice Exports ofVietnam in World Total, 1995-2010 34

v

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

CAP Center for Agricultural Policy

FAO Foods and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nation

GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies

GSO General Statistic Office of Vietnam

ICEM International Centre for Environment Management

IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute

IMHEN Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPSARD Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural DevelopmentIPSL Institute Pierre Simon Laplace

IRRI International Rice Research Institute

MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam

MORNE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam

NACCC National Advisory Committee on Climate Change

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NRCB Natural Research Centre of Banana

OXFAM Oxford Committee for Famine Relief

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic & Social Affairs

UNDP United Nations Development Program

V I

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT

Up to now, climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing human beings It hasbecome the concern as socio-economical and environmental problems in the world.Indeed, climate change became global issue in recent years, negatively impacted to allcountries, especially in agriculture regions; threat crop failures, life damage losses andother critical ecosystem vulnerabilities In particular, agriculture sectors have directexposure and dependence on weather and other natural conditions Hence, climatechange could pose serious issues On the other hand, the challenges of global foodsecurity through increasing population, accompanied by increased demand for food Aspredicted, the world population can be growth from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 8.3 billion in

2030 and to 9.1 billion people in 2050, but the majority occurs in developing countries.Thus, food demand has to increase by 70% to meet the population growth, in which thedeveloping countries have doubled At present, enormous burden of feeding a globalpopulation is growing rapidly become more severe due to the impact of climate change

on food production (UNDESA, 2009)

According to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC,2007), Vietnam is the graded fifth in vulnerability under the impacts of climate change

In which, Mekong Delta is one of the three most vulnerable Deltas in the world asrising sea level, besides the Nile Delta in Egypt and the Ganges Delta in Bangladesh InEast and South Asia, climate change will alter precipitation patterns, increasingfrequency of droughts and average temperatures, threatening fresh water for agriculturalproduction In Sub-Saharan Africa, rainfall will be reduced by half in 2020 It is a threatfor agriculture sector, and so it effect to food security all over the world Consequently,ensuring food security is increasingly urgent The

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC, 2007) has also estimated that Vietnam will be seriously affected by changing of climate in the future.

In fact, Vietnam is among of the countries hardest hit by climate change through risingsea levels, changing in rainfall and temperatures According to Vietnamese Ministry ofNatural Resources and Environment (Climate change, Sea level rise scenarios forVietnam, MONRE, 2009), the change in climate would significantly affect over allregions of Vietnam "By the end of the 21st century, average temperature in Vietnam isexpected to increase about 2.3°C; total annual rainfall and rainy season's rainfall wouldincrease while dry season's rainfall would decrease; sea level is expected to rise about75cm compared to the average for 1980-1999" (MONRE, 2009) If sea levels rise by 1meter, approximately 40% of the Mekong Delta, 11% of the Red River Delta area and3% of the other provinces in coastal areas will be flooded; 10-12% Vietnam's populationdirectly affected, and losses of about 10% of GDP (Tran Hong Ha, MONRE, 2011 ).Meanwhile, the population of Vietnam was estimated more than 100 million people in

2020 It means that Vietnam has to raise the current food production to ensure foodsecurity

Furthermore, Vietnam's climate, topography and long coastline makes Vietnamparticularly vulnerable to climate variability and natural disaster The Vietnamesecoastline is about 3,260 km with the sea consists 1,000,000 km2• The natural area has329,241 km2, of which 29% of land used for agricultural production (GSO, 2010) Inrecent, Vietnam is the second largest rice exporter in the world However, the countrystill has about 1 million people, mainly ethnic minorities without enough food for theirliving Thus, food security is not only more serious for Vietnam but also for the rest ofthe world by impacting of climate change

In brief, climate change has narrowed the area of agricultural land which weresubmerged a large portion of agricultural land in the low coastal plains, the Red Deltaand the Mekong Delta by rising sea levels Besides, increasing temperatures, changing

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weather and natural disasters lead to grow diseases and epidemics Not only theproductivity and output have been threatened, but also the national food security as well It

is the reason why the Vietnamese government and many Institutions had a lot of programsand researches to adapt the climate change and food security Based on the availableclimate change scenarios which were conducted by researchers and institutions as well asthe previous findings, this paper studies the impacts of climate change on food security inVietnam with the simulation approach

1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVIVES

The goal of this study is to examine how likely is the climate change may pose impacts onfood security based on MORNE's climate change scenarios and food security projects.This research has four specific objectives as follows:

(1) To understand the relationship between climate change and food security;

(2) To indicate the impact of climate change on rice yield in Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010;

(3) To explore and estimate the impacts of climate change on food security in Vietnam

up to 2030, focusing on food supply side;

(4) To draw policy recommendations for food security in Vietnam

1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

To obtain the above objectives, this paper will attempt to answer the following questions:

( 1) How is the relationship between climate change and food security?

(2) How is the impact of climate change (such as rainfall changes, temperature

increases, etc.) on rice production in Mekong Delta region?

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(3) How is the impact of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030?Among of predicted scenarios, which scenarios are suitable for Vietnam in reality?

(4) What are policy implications to food security in the future?

1.4 RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS

This paper will forecast the impact of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to

2030 In particular, it attempts to forecast the impact of climate change on food securitywith simulations on different scenarios In addition, this study also looks at the fooddemand and supply based on government goals which is evident in the legaldocuments The findings may provide policy makers useful information in assessing thefeasibility of food security objectives under climate change, and in selecting theappropriate policies to adapt the climate change and ensure the food security up to2030

1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY

This paper consists of six parts, covering the major theme as impact of climate change

on food security Chapter 1 provides the overview of the study Chapter 2 presents theliterature review Chapter 3 indicates the current situation of food demand and supply,and climate change in Vietnam Chapter 4 shows the methodology and data Chapter 5analyzes data and discusses the results Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the paper andprovides some recommendations as well as the limitations of this research

In detail, Chapter 1 raises the problem statement which is caused the theme for thisthesis Based on the issue, impact of climate change on food security is studied Theobjectives and contributions of this study also present in the first part Second, Chapter

2 presents basic concepts and defmitions such as greenhouse gases, emissions, climatechange, climate change scenario, and food security Theoretical literature and empiricalstudies which related climate change and agriculture production aspect are

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also presented The finding of conceptual framework indicating the linkage betweenclimate change and food security is reviewed as well Third, Chapter 3 shows andanalyzes the current situation of food demand and supply, and climate change Thechapter begins with the analysis of paddy production as rice being the major food forVietnamese meal This section investigates Vietnam's paddy statistics in the period from

1995 to 2010, including cultivated paddy area and paddy yields by regions of Vietnam

In the demand side, this study evaluates domestic rice consumption and rice exportsvolume of Vietnam Regarding to the current situation of climate change, the chaptermainly summarizes the analysis of climate parameters and sea level based on observeddata of MORNE Climate is considered in this part as temperature, rainfall, sea levelrise, typhoon, cold front and drizzles Next, Chapter 4 presents the methodology anddata where econometric model is used to estimate from the secondary data which isadopted pool data of Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010 The Cobb-Douglas functionalform is applied for the average yield function Methods for analysis and simulationsunder different scenarios are also presented And then, Chapter 5 analyses and explainsthe results The aim of this chapter is to show the impact of climate change on foodsecurity up to 2030 with various climate scenarios Finally, Chapter 6 concludes thepaper It discusses the main findings as well as offers some recommendations Thelimitations of this research are also raised in the last section

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Chapter 2LITERATURE REVIEW

The chapter firstly defmes the relevant concepts including climate change and foodsecurity Next, it shows theoretical literature on the linkage between the climate changeand food security Cobb-Douglas Function and Simulation approach are laid out Then,

it reviews some empirical studies And finally, the conceptual framework for this study

is also presented in this chapter

2.1 BASIC CONCEPT AND DEFINITION

2.1.1 Greenhouse gases (GHGs)

Greenhouse gases are gases that absorb long-wave radiation (infrared) These arereflected from the earth's surface when illuminated by sunlight, then, dissipate heatback to the earth and causing the greenhouse effect Ordinarily, the prime greenhousegases in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor (H20), carbon dioxide (C02), nitrousoxide (N20), methane (CRt) and ozone (03 ). (IPCC Glossary, 1995)

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Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (F AO, 2008), greenhouse gases to theatmosphere was one of the major causes This was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824.After that, in 1896, Svante Arrhenius investigated quantitatively These factors determinethe greenhouse gas emission such as economic growth, population, consumption, energysources, technology transfer and land use, etc (IPCC, 2007) Among of them, water vaporwhich causes about 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, carbon dioxide (C02) about 9-26%,methane (Cf-4) about 4-9%, ozone (03) about 3-7%, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) andnitrous oxide (N20) were the rest cause Wigley and Jones (1981) concluded that the effects

of C02 on climate is available and by this time, atmospheric C02 concentrations maybecome high and will be higher in the future which was an important cause of climatechange

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Changes in average weather

Global warming

accumulation of greenhouse gases

traps more heat in the atmosphere

Atmosphere

• Higher global mean and maximum surface air temperatures

Hydrosphere

• Higher global mean and maximum sea surface temperatures

• Changes in cloud cover

r - • Higher global mean

precipitation

• Changes in frequency, duration intensity and geographic distribution of rainfall and snowfall

r - • Increased frequency, duration and intensity of droughts

• Changes in wind patterns

• Greater seasonal weather variability

nature habitats

• Changes in suitability of land for arable crops, tree crops, pasture crops, grazing and human habitation

• Changes in star/end of growing season

• Displacement of ecological zones

agro-Changes in hydrosphere

• Changes in ocean circulation

• Changes in patterns of water flow in glacier-fed streams

• Changes in recharge rates for underground aquifers

• Changes in sea salinity

• Saltwater intrusions

• Changes in frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events

• Displacement of climatic zones

Changes in lithosphere

• More soil erosion

• Changes in pattern of sedimentation after flooding

• Changes in shorelines of coasts and lakes

Source FAO/NRCB, 2008

2.1.4 Climate Change Scenario

Climate change scenario is the scientific assumption and reliability in future evolution,

of which the relationship between socio-economic development, GDP, greenhouse gasemissions, climate change and sea level rises (IPCC, 2007) The scenarios reported byIPCC (2007) are as follows:

reaches the peak in 2050 and declines thereafter, rapid introduction of new technologies and moreefficient of these, convergence of world-income, way of life and among regions, strong culturalexchanges and social interactions (IPCC, 2007)

Based on technological development, Al scenario divides into three groups Allthese are A 1F 1 (High emission scenario) with an intensity on fossil intensive,AlB (Medium emission scenario) with an intensity on a balance across all

•

energy sources and A 1T (Low emission scenario) with an intensity on fossil energy sources (IPCC, 2007)

preservation of nations, continuously increasing population in the 21st century, regionally-oriented economic development, technological change, slow per capita economic growth (High emission scenario, similar to A 1F 1) (IPCC, 2007)

• Bl Family: Scenario characteristics are rapid economic growth as in Al, but with

changes toward a service and information economy, global population reaches the peak in 2050 anddeclines thereafter, reduces in material intensity and introduces clean and resources efficient technologies,emphasizes on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability (Low emissionscenario, similar to A 1T) (IPCC, 2007)

• B2 Family: Scenario characteristics are continuously increasing population, but at a

rate lower than A2, emphasizes on local rather than global solutions to

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economic, social and environmental sustainability, economic development withintermediate levels, less rapid and more diverse technological change than in B 1and Al families (Medium emission scenario, similar to AlB) (IPCC, 2007)

2.1.5 Sea Level Rises

Sea level rise is the surge of ocean water in worldwide, which does not include tides, stormsurges Sea level rise at a certain location may be higher or lower than the global averagebecause of differences in ocean temperature and other factors (IPCC Glossary, 1995)

2.1.6 Food Security

Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times have secure access tosufficient, safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development, for an active andhealthy life (IPCC Glossary, 1995)

"Availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain asteady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices"(World Food Summit, 1974)

"Ensuring that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to the basicfood that they need" (F AO, 1983)

"Access of all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life" (World Bank,1986)

"Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels [isachieved] when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient,safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active andhealthy life" (World Food Summit, 1996)

"Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, socialand economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needsand food preferences for an active and healthy life" (State ofFood Insecurity, 2001)

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2.1 7 Scenario

Scenario is a possible description of how the future may develop which based on acoherent and consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships.(IPCC Glossary, 1995)

2.2.1.1 The Linkage between Climate Change and Food Security

The linkages between climate change and food security have been examined anddocumented in literature For the most part, this relation is the impact of climate change

on productivity Therefore, food supply is influenced as a link The causes of climatechange are also considered to explain clearly The increase in average temperature ofEarth due to emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere hadcaused the change of global climate Over the past 100 years, Earth's average surfacetemperature increased by about 0.8°C, especially in last three decades During the 20thCentury, the average temperature of Earth rose 0.6°C and predicted that it will risebetween 1.8° and 4.0° Celsius in during 21st Century (IPCC, 2007) Most of thescientists found that the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases is the cause,which were produced by human activities (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007)

In the case of Vietnam, agriculture accounts for a large proportion of greenhouse gasemissions Actually, rice cultivation and livestock account for about 43% (MORNE,

2011 ) Thus, the climate change and agriculture production have an interactiontogether In the long run, the climate change could impact on agriculture in many ways

It could affect the yield, in term of quality and quantity of crops Besides,

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agriculture practice will be influenced due to fertilizers, herbicides, insecticides andirrigation In another way, the environment will be effected through frequency andintensity of soil drainage, soil erosion, crop diversity declined as well Furthermore, theloss and gain of cultivated lands also lead to rural landscape change.

As a result, greenhouse gases do make global warming and lead to change the climate

F AO and NRCB (F AO/NRCB, 2008) showed that climate change through five aspects:C02 fertilization effect, increase in global mean temperatures, gradual changes inprecipitation, increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and greaterweather variability This leads to change in food system assets then change in foodsystem activities Finally, four components of food security as availability, accessibility,utilization and system stability were changed by climate change indirectly (F AO, 2008)

Indeed, the climate change has become the global environment issue This problem ismore dangerous deal with developing countries According to World Bank (WB, 201 0),climate change is expected to hit developing countries the hardest Changes in rainfallpatterns, increased in temperature, more frequent weather and rising sea level are thecausing of risks for agriculture, food and water supplies The impactions of climate change

on agriculture production and human life were occurred day by day In the past and in thepresent, many of the people have to die of hunger or to suffer hunger This problem is moreserious for the poor people In the future, they will still face with the hunger due to climatechange on agriculture production Hence, much of the existing research has focused on thepotential agriculture impact and food security implications

For instance, m "Effects of Climate Change on Food Production" of Parry andSwaminathan (1992) showed that global climate change will boost the pressure onagriculture system The yield will be declined meanwhile the food demand is growingrapidly Consequently, they effected on world food supply and food security At the

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same time, Downing (1992) illustrated some evidences about global change andvulnerability to hunger The index of food security in developing countries, resourcepressure and risk of climate change were presented in this research Chen (1990) foundthat the global agriculture, the environment and food security have linkages together.

He highlighted these linkages in the past, present and future This was presented in thearticle "Global Agriculture, Environment and Hunger" In particular, Sinha et al ( 1988)argued the food supply in smaller countries will be more affected by climate changethan the larger countries

In the same token, Kwon and Kim (2008) examined the relationship betweenproductivity and climate change of which rice yield was illustrated They applied non-parametric and semi-parametric models for their study The result showed that rice yieldand climate change are related In respect, rice yield was positive with temperature andnegative with rain fall Besides, the exiting was a non-linear relationship between riceyield and weather variables Nevertheless, they only focused on average rice yieldchange over weather conditions They did not consider crop yield variability andweather conditions corresponding For this reason, McCarl and Schimmelpfennig(2004), Chang and Chen (2005), Devadoss and Isik (2006) discussed this aspect Theydemonstrated that weather variables affect average crop yield and the variability as well.The average crop yield and yield variability are mixed Some are positive and some arenegative which are based the characteristics of crops and physical growing locations.These researchers concluded that the average crop yield in hotter and drier weatherconditions is lower and the variability is also larger

In the case of Vietnam country and regions in detail, climate change is a senouschallenge that Mekong Delta and Red Delta are low lying Thus, they are the mostregions affected when flooding occurs as well as salinity and other adverse weatherphenomena Major causes of climate change are due to the increase of physicalactivities generate GHG emissions, the excessive exploitation of forest resources,

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manne ecosystems, coastal and other land (IMHEN, 2011 ) Mekong Delta is thecountry's largest rice granary and aquaculture region It produces about 50% of country'srice output and 52% of aquatic products (GSO, 2010) Based on the fmdings of Bingxin

Yu, Clemens Breisinger, Nguyen Manh Hai and Tingju Zhu (2010), annual riceproduction may be reduced by 2 7 million tons by 2050 under climate change Cropyield reductions under climate change vary widely across agro-ecological zones Theyield decline is estimated to be 4.3-8.3% by 2050 in the Mekong Delta

In conclusion, the interaction between biogeophysical and human environments lead tothe production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food Climatechange can be "due to natural variability or as a result of human activity" (IPCC 2007).According to F AO, food systems involve food availability, food access and foodutilization And so, the resulting in food systems ensure for food security

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Figure 2.2: Climate Change and Food Security

Adaptive Responses ofFoods Systems

• Producing food

-+

Security

INCREASE IN GLOBAL MEAN

assets • Storing and • Food availability

grain fed livestock • Change in nutritional

• Increase in frequency, duration preparation

products value of diets and intensity of dry spells and assets

1-+

• Shift in proportion • Increased in cadence droughts

of locally produced of water-borne

• Changes in timing, location &

foods in the diet diseases in amounts of rain and snowfall • Increase in prone areas

flood-INCREASE IN FREQllENCY AND

ge

in dis eas e

on in

for exis ting dise ases

dhigh winds, heavy rains, storms Conflict consumption of wild • Emergency of new surges & flash floods associated foods diseases

with tropical storms and tornados • Reduction in

• Greater instability in seasonal variety of food

• Change in start and end of growing seasons

I Change in Nutritional Status I

Source J<A()/JVRCB, 2008 I

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2.2.1.2 Cobb-Douglas Function

Cobb-Douglas functional form was introduced with the postulates in Just and Pope( 1978, 1979) to approximate the average yield equation After that, this form wasdeveloped by Tveteras, R (2000) Kim and Pang (2009) had also applied the functionalform to estimate climate change impact on rice yield and production risk These averageyield functions were written as follows:

Cobb-Douglass (1)

where Xj is inputs including weather variables ~are the coefficients to be estimated T

is a time trend variable which represents the impact of the technological progressduring the sample period Technological progress includes improved crop plantingpractices, adding fertilizer and pesticide application and applying new rice varieties

2.2.1.3 Simulation Approach

Matthews et al ( 1997) exhibited simulation approach to examine the impact of climatechange on rice production in Asia Then, Diakosavvas and Green (1998) used imitationapproach with application to India to study the impact on consumption of food and thedifferent variations Subsequently, Quinn (2002) emphasized simulation model thatlinks food production, the requirements of the population consumption and sustainabledevelopment Later, Falcon et al (2004) investigated the relationship between climatechange, supply and availability of food to improve Indonesia food security In recentyears, Gerald et al (2010) also used this approach to research food security and climatechange up to 2050 for the world, including developed countries and developingcountries By approaching simulation, Pedercini et al (2012) examined the potentialimpacts of climate change on food security in Mali

2.2.1.4 Climate Change Scenarios: MORNE, IPSL-CM4, GISS-ER

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• MORNE: Climate change scenanos are developed by Ministry of Natural Resources

and Environment of Vietnam These scenarios based on greenhouse gas emissions Climatechange scenarios for temperature and precipitation are built for seven geographic zones inVietnam All these are North West, North East, North Delta, North Central, South Central,Central Highlands, and South The baseline period is 1980-1999 (MORNE, 2009)

Laplace, France These couple four components of the Earth system: LMDZ-4 foratmospheric dynamics and physics, OP A for ocean dynamics, LIM for sea ice dynamics andthermodynamics, and ORCHIDEE for the land surface The variables study as specifichumidity (anomaly), precipitation flux (anomaly), air pressure at the sea level (anomaly),surface down-welling shortwave flux in air (anomaly), air temperature (anomaly), eastwardwind (anomaly) and north wind (anomaly) (IPCC, AR4, 2007)

Laplace The variables examine as specific humidity, precipitation flux, air pressure at the sealevel, surface down-welling shortwave flux in air, air temperature, eastward wind and northwind (IPCC, AR4, 2007)

2.2.2 Empirical Studies

So far, climate change and food security are hot topics Therefore, these issues attractedmany researchers Among of them, some authors such as Matthews et al (1997),Aggarwal and Mall (2002), Chen et al (2005), Jane Kabubo-Mariara and Karanja(2007), Kim et al (2009), Jintian Wang (2010), Claudia Ringler et al (2010), ShenShuang He et al (20 11) observed and studied the countries around the world In thecase of Vietnam, there are also some researchers as Hoang et al (2008), Bingxin Yu et

al (2010), etc Although they have been applied different methods to study and find outthe fmdings, but most of them have concluded that climate change impacts on food

1 7

production in reality The following table will be summarized some empirical studiesrelated to this study.

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Table 2.1 Summary of Empirical Studies about Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security

R B Matthews - Panel data: Asia -Rice yield - Simulation models - An increase in C02 level was found to

P K.Aggarwal, - Experiments time- -Rice yield - Scenarios and Crop - Rice yields increased between 1.0 and

R K Mall, series data: India -Temperature Models

16.8% in pessimistic scenarios of climate

change depending upon the level of

models- Ceres-Rice

optimistic scenarios

andORYZAIN

19

Chen et al - Panel data: -Rice yield -Stochastic - Weather variables affect not only(2005) Taiwan - Temperature programming model average crop yield but also the variability

- Annually: 1977- - Precipitation - Unit root tests and of crop yield.

Jane Kabubo- - Cross-sectional - Crop revenue - Seasonal Ricardian - There is a non-linear relationship

- The temperature component of globalwarming is much more important than

Hoang, V.Q et - Cross-sectional -Rice production -Desk study - The temperature increases in the hot

-Cereal - Field research

20

al (2008)

Kim, Man-Keun,

ArwinPang

(2009)

- Primary data (Vu -Population - Higher rainfall in rainy season, lowerQuang & Loc Ha -Rainfall

rainfall in dry season

district, Ha Tinh -Temperature

south and sea level is about 10 em higherthan before

-Adjustment of crops system &

cultivation schedule to ensure harvestingbefore flood season

- Panel data: Korea -Rice yield - Stochastic production - Rice yield is positively related to

- Annually: 1977- -Temperature function temperature & negatively associated with2008

- Precipitation -Cobb-Douglas (CD)

precipitation

-Time trend functional form

- The responsiveness is estimated as +0.8

- Linear quadratic (LQ)

~ +0.9 for temperature and - 0.14form

Jintian Wang - Dynamic panel - Per rural capita -POLS - CC will affect the food security

(System-GMM)-Sown area, etc

Claudia Ringler -Predict data: Sub- -Temperature - Scenario - CCC scenario predicts consistently

et al (20 10) Saharan Africa - Precipitation - GCM (Global higher temperatures & mixed

-Up to 2050 -Crop yield Circulation Model) precipitation changes for the 2050 period

-Compared to historic climate scenario,

- Per capita food (Comprehensive

CC will lead to change in yield & area

growth, higher food prices, reduce foodScenario)

availability

Bingxin Yu - Cross-section -Rice yield - Simulation models - Rice production is likely to be severely

et al (2010) data: Vietnam -Labor • Climate change compromised by climate change

- VHLSS 2004,

- Fertilizer scenano

-Temperature • Crop simulation

by 2 7 million tons by 2050 under climate

change

- Irrigation - River basin model

22

Shen Shuang - Experimental

time-series data,

I He et al

statistical(20 11)

data: China

- Annually: 2006

1981-appliedper unit land

- Infrastructure

- Household head characteristics

- Crop yield reductions under climate change

vary widely across agro-ecological zones

- The yield decline is estimated to be

4.3-8.3 percent by 2050 in the Mekong River

Delta

- In 2021-2050, B2 scenario comparingwith the baseline ( 1961-1990):

Without C02

fertilization effect considered, the yield

of irrigated rice decreases by 14.8%

• With C02fertilization effect considered,

the yield of irrigated rice decreases by3.3% and the yield of rain-fed rice decreases by 4.1% on average

• C02 fertilization has a certain positive effect on rice yield

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