Lecture Essentials of corporate finance - Chapter 8: Net present value and other investment criteria

After studying this chapter you will be able to: Understand the payback rule and its shortcomings, understand accounting rates of return and their problems, understand the internal rate of return and its strengths and weaknesses, understand the net present value rule and why it is the best decision criteria.

Net Present Value and Other

Investment Criteria

Chapter 8

Key Concepts and Skills

• Understand the payback rule and its shortcomings

• Understand accounting rates of return and their

problems

• Understand the internal rate of return and its

strengths and weaknesses

• Understand the net present value rule and why it is the best decision criteria

• Net Present Value

• The Payback Rule

• The Average Accounting Return

• The Internal Rate of Return

• The Profitability Index

• The Practice of Capital Budgeting

Good Decision Criteria

• We need to ask ourselves the following questions when evaluating decision criteria:

– Does the decision rule adjust for the time value of

money?

– Does the decision rule adjust for risk?

– Does the decision rule provide information on whether we are creating value for the firm?

Project Example Information

• You are looking at a new project and you have

estimated the following cash flows:

– Year 0: CF = -165,000

– Year 1: CF = 63,120; NI = 13,620

– Year 2: 70,800; NI = 3,300

– Year 3: 91,080; NI = 29,100

– Average Book Value = 72,000

• Your required return for assets of this risk is 12%

Net Present Value

• The difference between the market value of a

project and its cost

• How much value is created from undertaking an investment?

– The first step is to estimate the expected future cash flows

– The second step is to estimate the required return for projects of this risk level

– The third step is to find the present value of the cash flows and subtract the initial investment

• If the NPV is positive, accept the project

• A positive NPV means that the project is expected

to add value to the firm and will therefore increase the wealth of the owners

• Since our goal is to increase owner wealth, NPV is

a direct measure of how well this project will meet our goal

Computing NPV for the Project

• Using the formulas:

– NPV = 63,120/(1.12) + 70,800/(1.12) 2 + 91,080/(1.12) 3 – 165,000 = $12,627.42

• Using the calculator:

– CF0 = -165,000; C01 = 63,120; F01 = 1; C02 = 70,800; F02 = 1; C03 = 91,080; F03 = 1; NPV; I = 12; CPT NPV =

$12,627.42

• Do we accept or reject the project?

Decision Criteria Test – NPV

• Does the NPV rule account for the time value of money?

• Does the NPV rule account for the risk of the cash flows?

• Does the NPV rule provide an indication about the increase in value?

• Should we consider the NPV rule for our primary decision criteria?

Calculating NPVs with a Spreadsheet

• Spreadsheets are an excellent way to compute

NPVs, especially when you have to compute the cash flows as well

• Using the NPV function:

– The first component is the required return entered as a decimal

– The second component is the range of cash flows

beginning with year 1

– Subtract the initial investment after computing the NPV

Payback Period

• How long does it take to get the initial cost back in

a nominal sense?

• Computation

– Estimate the cash flows

– Subtract the future cash flows from the initial cost until the initial investment has been recovered

• Decision Rule – Accept if the payback period is

less than some preset limit

Computing Payback for the Project

• Assume we will accept the project if it pays back within two years

– Year 1: 165,000 – 63,120 = $101,880 still to recover

– Year 2: 101,880 – 70,800 = $31,080 still to recover

– Year 3: 31,080 – 91,080 = -$60,000 project pays back in

year 3

• Do we accept or reject the project?

Decision Criteria Test – Payback

• Does the payback rule account for the time value

• Should we consider the payback rule for our

primary decision criteria?

Advantages and Disadvantages of

Payback

• Advantages

– Easy to understand

– Adjusts for uncertainty of

later cash flows

– Biased towards liquidity

• Disadvantages

– Ignores the time value of money

– Requires an arbitrary cutoff point

– Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff date

– Biased against long-term projects, such as research and development, and new projects

Average Accounting Return

• There are many different definitions for average accounting return

• The one used in the book is:

– Average net income/average book value

– Note that the average book value depends on how the asset is depreciated.

• Need to have a target cutoff rate

• Decision Rule: Accept the project if the AAR is

greater than a preset rate

Computing AAR for the Project

• Assume we require an average accounting return

Decision Criteria Test – AAR

• Does the AAR rule account for the time value of money?

• Does the AAR rule account for the risk of the cash flows?

• Does the AAR rule provide an indication about the increase in value?

• Should we consider the AAR rule for our primary decision criteria?

Advantages and Disadvantages of

– Uses an arbitrary benchmark cutoff rate

– Based on accounting net income and book values, not cash flows and market values

Internal Rate of Return

• This is the most important alternative to NPV

• It is often used in practice and is intuitively

appealing

• It is based entirely on the estimated cash flows and

is independent of interest rates found elsewhere

IRR – Definition and Decision Rule

• Definition: IRR is the return that makes the NPV

= 0

• Decision Rule: Accept the project if the IRR is

greater than the required return

Computing IRR for the Project

• If you do not have a financial calculator, then this becomes a trial and error process

• Calculator

– Enter the cash flows as you did with NPV

– Press IRR and then CPT

– IRR = 16.13% > 12% required return

• Do we accept or reject the project?

NPV Profile for the Project

­20,000

­10,000

0 10,000

Decision Criteria Test – IRR

• Does the IRR rule account for the time value of money?

• Does the IRR rule account for the risk of the cash flows?

• Does the IRR rule provide an indication about the increase in value?

• Should we consider the IRR rule for our primary decision criteria?

Advantages of IRR

• Knowing a return is intuitively appealing

• It is a simple way to communicate the value of a project to someone who doesn’t know all the

estimation details

• If the IRR is high enough, you may not need to

estimate a required return, which is often a difficult task

Summary of Decisions for the Project

Summary

Average Accounting Return Reject

Internal Rate of Return Accept

Calculating IRRs with a Spreadsheet

• You start with the cash flows the same as you did for the NPV

• You use the IRR function

– You first enter your range of cash flows, beginning with the initial cash flow

– You can enter a guess, but it is not necessary

– The default format is a whole percent – you will normally want to increase the decimal places to at least two

– Mutually exclusive projects

• Initial investments are substantially different

• Timing of cash flows is substantially different

IRR and Nonconventional Cash

Flows

• When the cash flows change sign more than once, there is more than one IRR

• When you solve for IRR you are solving for the root

of an equation and when you cross the x-axis more than once, there will be more than one return that solves the equation

• If you have more than one IRR, which one do you use to make your decision?

Another Example – Nonconventional

• The required return is 15%

• Do we accept or reject the project?

Summary of Decision Rules

• The NPV is positive at a required return of 15%, so

you should Accept

• If you use the financial calculator, you would get an

IRR of 10.11% which would tell you to Reject

• You need to recognise that there are

non-conventional cash flows and look at the NPV profile

IRR and Mutually Exclusive Projects

• Mutually exclusive projects

– If you choose one, you can’t choose the other

– Example: You can choose to attend graduate school next year at either Harvard or Stanford, but not both

• Intuitively you would use the following decision

rules:

– NPV – choose the project with the higher NPV

– IRR – choose the project with the higher IRR

Example with Mutually Exclusive

Which project  should you accept  and why?

Conflicts Between NPV and IRR

• NPV directly measures the increase in value to the firm

• Whenever there is a conflict between NPV and

another decision rule, you should always use NPV

• IRR is unreliable in the following situations

– Non-conventional cash flows

– Mutually exclusive projects

Profitability Index

• Measures the benefit per unit cost, based on the time value of money

• A profitability index of 1.1 implies that for every $1

of investment, we create an additional $0.10 in

value

• This measure can be very useful in situations

where we have limited capital

Advantages and Disadvantages of

– May be useful when

available investment funds

Capital Budgeting in Practice

• We should consider several investment criteria

when making decisions

• NPV and IRR are the most commonly used primary investment criteria

• Payback is a commonly used secondary

investment criteria

Quick Quiz

• Consider an investment that costs $100,000 and has a cash inflow of $25,000 every year for 5 years The required return

is 9% and required payback is 4 years.

– What is the payback period?

– What is the NPV?

– What is the IRR?

– Should we accept the project?

• What decision rule should be the primary decision method?

• When is the IRR rule unreliable?