Bài viết trình bày biến đổi khí hậu và nỗ lực ứng phó toàn cầu, những vấn đề đặt ra đối với Việt Nam, đề xuất một số giải pháp nhằm cải thiện tác động của biến đổi khí hậu.
Trang 1BIEN DOI KHI HAU TOAN CAU VA VAN DE DAT RA DOI V d l VIET NAM
TS Tl^N H6NG HA
Oy v!§n Ban Chdp hinh Trung aang BSng
Bi tradng Bi Tii nguyin vS Mdi trudng
Biin dil khi hiu li vin di toin ciu, li thich thiec nghiim tr^ng nhit dil
vdi nhin io^i trong Vii kfXXI Vlit Nam ii mit trong nhimg quic gia bi inh
huong n^ng ni nhit fi> bJ4n dii khf h$u, ci vi chfnh tri, Mnh ti - xa hii va
quic phing - an ninh Vi thi, chu ding dng phi v&i biin dii khf h$u a nu&c
ta li vin di quan frpng, cap thiit
B: IEN doi khi h|u v i no 1 ^ dng phd toin
:^u
Trong qui trinh phit trifin, biln ddi khi
hgu (do phat thii khi nhi kinh giy ra) li mft
ttong nhiing van de an ninh phi truyfin thong,
de dpa tdi su tdn vong eua toan nhan logi
Theo Td chdc Khi tupng thl gidi, ndng dp khi
nha kinh ttong khi quyen nam 2015 da vupt
qua nguong 400/10^ thl tich; trong khi dd,
gidi hgn an toin ciia ehi sd nay la 350/10^ thfi
tieh Cdn theo bio cio ciia Nhdm Cdng tic vfi
Ca sd khoa hpe thude Ban lifin chinh phu ve
bifin ddi khi hiu (cfing bd ngay 27-9-2013) thi
ndng dg cae khi nhi kinh ttong khi quyfin da
khdng ngiing gia tang; ttong dd, ndng dg khi
CO2 (giai dogn 2005 - 2011) da tang 40% so
vdi nam 1750 Nhift dd b l mgt trai dit tang
nhanh, ttong giai doan 1901-2012 da tang
O.gg'^C; rieng giai dogn 1951 2012 tang
khoing 0,72°C Dilu dd dupe thl hifin d so
ngay, dem ianh/nam giam, sd ngiy, dem v i
dpt ning ndng/nam tang len ro rft Muc nude
biln trung binh eua thl gidi cung cd xu thl
tang ttong sudt thl ky XX, vdi mde ting binh
quin 1,7 mm/nam (giai doan 1900 - 1992) v i
3,2 mm/nam (giai dogn 1993 2010) Vfi
lugng mua, cae viing ed sd dpt mua ldn tang nhieu ban sd vung cd sd dpt mua ldn giim Cic con bao mgnh xuit hifn ngay mpt nhifiu, nhit la nhiing sieu bao, vdi sue gid chua timg
cd ttong Hch sd nhan loai
Dfi cdu trii dit - ngdi nhi chung cua cac the hf hdm nay vi mai sau khdi thim hpa biln ddi khi hau, ngiy 12-12-2015, Thda thugn ve khi hau da dupe 196 ben thdng qua tgi Hpi nghi lih thu 21 cic ben tham gia Cdng udc khung eua Lien hgp qude v l biln ddi khi hiu (COP 21) tai Pa-ri (Phip) Day ia Thda thugn danh dau budc dot pha quan ttpng ttong no lyc eua Lien hpp qudc sau hon 2 thap ky, nhim thuylt phyc chinh phu eae nudc hgp tic dfi giim lupng khi thii gay d nhifim, hgn chl gia tang nhifit dp ciia ttii dat Td day, se md ra mpt ky nguyen phit trien mdi ttfin toin eau
-ky nguyen phit trien phat thii cic-bon thap, vdi cic md hinh sin xuit, tieu dung than thifn vdi mdi trudng; han chl, tiln tdi xda bd sd dung nhifin Hfu hda thach, thuc day phit trifin nang lupng sgch, ning lupng tai tao Qui trinh
iy cd sy tham gia tieh cue ciia cae thinh phin ttong xa hpi, tu eac nhi hogch dinh chinh sach, nha khoa hpc, cdng nghf, giio due, boat dpng
Trang 2dong, v.v
Nhimg vin d l d$t ra dli vdi Vift Nam
Vift Nam la mpt ttong nhiing quoc gia
dang phat trien v i la nudc dl bi tdn thuang
dgc bift do tie ddng cda biln ddi khi hau gay
ra Theo kich bin bifin ddi khi hgu eho Vift
Nam phifin bin 2016' cho tiiiy, nhift dp ttfin
cic vung, mien eua nudc ta diu cd xu thl tang
so vdi thdi ky eo sd (1986 - 2005), vdi mde
ting ldn nhit d khu vyc phia Bac Nfiu theo
kieh ban trung binh (RCP4.5), nhifit dp trung
binh/nam ttfin toin qudc giai dogn 2016
-2035 cd mde tang phd bifin tu O.d^C - 0,8°C
Cdn theo kich bin cao (RCP8.5), nhift dp
tiung binh/nam d nudc ta vao dau thl ky XXI
ed mde tang phd bien tu 0,8''C - IjI^C Ngoai
ra, nhift dd thip nhit trung binh va eao nhit
tiung binh d ca hai kjeh ban trfin diu cd xu
the tang len
Ve lugng mua, du bao se tilp tye tang tten
pham vi toan quoc Theo Idch bin trung binh,
lugng mua trung binh/nam vao dau thl ky nay
ed xu thfi tang d hau hit ci nudc, phd biln tu
5% - 10%; vao giua thl ky cd muc tang tu 5%
- 15%; trong do, mpt sd tinh ven bien dong
bing Bic Bp, Bic Trung Bf, Trung Trung Bf
cd thl tang tten 20% Theo idch ban cao,
lupng mua trung binh/nam cd xu thl tang
tuang ty nhu kich ban trung binh Dang chu y
li vao cudi the ky, mde tang nhieu nhit cd thl
Ifin tdi ttfin 20% va dupc phin bd d Bie Bp,
Trung Trung Bp, mdt phin Nam Bp va Tiy
Nguyfin Trong do, lupng mua 1 ngiy ldn nhit
va 5 ngiy ldn nhit ttung binh ed xu thl ting tu
40% - 70% (phia Tiy Tay Bic, Ddng Bic,
dong bang Bic Bf, Bic Trung Bd, Thda Thifin
- Hufi, vung Nam Tay Nguyen vi Ddng Nam
Bp) Cie khu vye khic cd mde tang phd biln
t d l 0 % - 3 0 %
Ve myc nudc biln ding ttung binh d Vift
Nam cd khi nang eao hon muc trung binh
toin eiu Theo kieh ban trung binh, dfin nam
2050 l i 22 em; nam 2100 li 53 cm Theo
hrang dng lin lugt l i 25 em v i 73 em Dy bao, nlu myc nudc bifin dang I m v i khdng
cd cie giii phip dng phd, khoing 16,8% difn tich ddng bing sdng Hong, 1,5% difn tich eae tinh ven bifin mien Trung (td Thanh Hda din Binh Thugn), 17,8% difn tich ttianh pho Hd Chi Minh, 38,9% difn tieh ding bing sdng Ciru Long cd nguy ca ngip chim trong nudc
Trudc tmh hinh dd, nhimg nim qua Dang
v i Nhi nude ta ludn coi bifin doi khi hau la vin dfi song cdn dli vdi quoc gia, dan tdc; tit
dd, tgp trung lanh dao, chi dgo eae cap, nganh, dia phuang, lye lugng tich eye, chu dgng ung phd tten mat ttgn niy, dgt nhilu ket qui quan
ttpng Ve nhgn thirc, Vift Nam da sdm tham
gia Cdng udc khung cua Lifin hpp qude vfi bifin ddi khi hgu (Cdng udc khi hgu), NgU dinh thu Kyoto Dae bift, ngiy 22-4-2016, Vifit Nam da eung 175 qude gia ttfin thfi gidi
ky Thda thu^n Pa-ri tgi Niu-Y-ode (My) Ciing vdi dd, nhieu hogt ddng tuyfin truyen, phi bifin, giio dye nang eao nhin thde ve biln dli khi hgu dupc thyc hifin Qua dd, nhan thde cua eie eap, nginh, dia phuang vi toin din vfi bien ddi khi hgu cdng nguy co tic dpng eda no ddi vdi cic lmh vye ddi sing xa hpi tdng budc dugc nang cao
Vi the che, chinh sdch, mpt sd vin bin
quy phgm phip lugt lifin quan dfin dng phd vdi bien ddi khi hiu da dupc ban hinh, nhu: Luit Dfi dieu; Lu^t Sd dyng tilt kifm v i hifu qui nang lupng; Phap Ifnh phdng ching lyt, bao; Chien lupe quic gia phdng, ehong vi giam nh? thifin tai, Luat Bio vf mdi tiudng (nam 2014), Chiln lupc qudc gia vfi bifin doi khi hiu, Chifin luge tang ttudng xanh, v.v Chinh phd da thinh lip Uy ban qudc gia vfi bien doi khi hiu, hinh thinh dan vj diu mli d
1 -_ Kich b&n niy c6 sii dung so li§u ciia 150 trpm
quan trie tren dat l i ^ vk Mi SAo; s6 l i ^ myc nuoc b i ^
cua 17 trjim hSi van v4 ciia ky thuat do d^c tir v§ tinh; sii dyng kit qua cfip nh^t cdc mo hlnh khi h^u t o ^ ciiL
Trang 3nhi nudc ve lmh vyc niy
Vi4c trien khai thifc hi?n cdc hogt dgng
thich img vd gidm nh? phdt thdi khi nhd kinb
cd nhieu chuyfin bien tieh eye Theo dd, kieh
ban bien doi khi hgu, nudc biln ding da duge
xay dyng, thudng xuyfin cip nhit v i cdng bo
Chuong tiinh myc tifiu qudc gia ve biln doi
khi hgu dugc triln khai thyc hifn va da dgt
duge ket qui bude dau Chuang ttinh hd ttg
dng phd vdi biln ddi khi hiu (SP-RCC) da xay
dung ttfin 300 npi dung chinh sich, huy dpng
eho ngin sich nhi nude gan I tJ USD Vifc
nghifin cdu, dinh gia tic dpng cua biln ddi khi
hgu dfin mdt sd lmh vue, lim ca sd dl xiy
dyng ke hogch hanh ddng dng phd thudng
xuyen dupc chu trpng Nang lyc dy bio, cinh
bio, td chdc thuc hifn ciing difiu kifn, phuong
tifn phdng, ehdng thien tai d eae khu dan cu,
nhit la tgi cae viing cd nguy ea eao vl thien tai
dupc nang Ien mpt budc mdi Cae chuang
trinh, dy i n ve tiet kifim nang lupng, sd dyng
nang lugng mdi, tai tao (nang lugng gid, mgt
ttdi, nhifin lifu sinh hpc) cdng cic hoat dpng
giim nhp phit thii khi nhi kinh dupe trien
khai tieh eye Vifc thuc hien Chuong trinh
giim mit v i suy thoii rung, nhim gift khi
nang hap thy khi nha kinh cua he sinh thai
rimg budc diu phat huy hifiu qui Ngoii ra,
Viet Nam da sdm xay dyng bio cio Ddng gdp
dy kiln (do qudc gia ty quyet djnh) vi trinh
Ban Thu ky Cdng udc khi h|u vio thing
9-2015 Theo dd, chdng ta cam kit giim 8% so
vdi kich bin phit trien thdng thudng (BAU)
vao nam 2030 vi cd thl tang len 25% nlu cd
hd ttp tieh eye tii cfng ddng qudc tfi
Ciing vdi kfit qui dgt dupe, thdi gian tdi,
viee thue thi Thda thuin Pa-ri vda md ra thdi
ca cho nudc ta ttong hgp tic dng phd vdi bien
ddi khi hgu, nhit li tao dpng lyc de chung ta
thay dli md hinh ting trudng v i eo hdi ttanh
thu cae ngudn lye (ci ngi lyc vi ngogi lyc) dfi
hudng tdi mdt nen kinh te cic-bon thip; ddng
thdi, dgt ra nhung khd khan, thach thde gay
git Trong tuang lai gin, biln ddi khi hau se
ddi song ngudi din vi c i nen kinh te, nhat la d eie nginh, ITnh vyc nhay cim, nhu: ndng nghifp, lam nghifp, thuy sin va chin nudi Dieu dd ddi hdi chiing ta, mpt mgt can huy ddng nhieu nguon lyc han eho thich dng vi khie phyc hiu qui do thifin tai gay ra; mgt khic, vSn phii no lye dam bio cic myc tifiu tang trudng kinh tfi, an sinh xa hpi, xda ddi giim ngheo Trong khi dd, vifc chi phi diu tu cho cai tiln, ddi mdi cdng nghf, phit tiien nang lupng tii tgo dfi thay thl cho cae nhifin lifu hda thgeh (theo cam kit) khdng he nhd, tgo ip lyc ldn doi vdi tang trudng nen kinh te qudc din Ngoai ra, thye hifn nghia vy cda mpt bfin tham gia Thda thugn, Vift Nam phii thay doi cich thuc tiln hanh kiem ke khi nhi kinh ciing nhu chl dp bio eao theo phuong thde: chuyfin td muc tifiu mang tinh tuong doi sang cic tieu chi cd tinh dinh lupng ro ring, vdi cac tieu ehuan eao han Dieu dd ciing se keo theo nhu eau ldn ve ngudn lye Diy Ii nhiing thich thde rit ldn ddi vdi nudc ta Mft sl giai p h i p chinh Trong thdi gian tdi, Thda thuan Pa-ri se tgo
ra budc ngoat ldn vl ung phd vdi bien ddi khi hau tten phgm vi toin cau ciing nhu d cap quoc gia Dfi chung ta cd the tin dyng eo hpi, chuyln hda thach thde, vda dim bio cac myc tifiu tang trudng, vda tdng budc phit trifin kinh
te gin vdi dam bio quoc phdng, an ninh theo hudng ben viing, cin trifin khai cac giii phip ddng bp; ttong dd, tip tnmg vio mpt sd n^i dung CO bin sau:
Mgt id, tten co sd chi ra thu|n lgi, khd khan
(khi thyc hifin Thda thuan Pa-ri) ddi vdi Vift Nam ttong giai dogn phit trifin mdi, chdng ta cin chu ddng xay dyng cac ke hogch, phuong
an phdng, chdng vi thich dng Trong dd, vife chuyfin ddi md hinh ting tnrdng cic-bon thap, chdng chiu eao la mdt ttong nhung giii phip tit yfiu de phat trien dat nudc nhanh hon, tdt hon, ttinh duge bay thu nhgp trung binh khi tii nguyen thien nhifin, nhat la than di, dau md cdn
Trang 4dyng Ding thdi, can nhin mgnh yfiu eau thay
dfii hanh vi vi ldi song cda toin xa hpi nham
hudng tdi hlnh thinh cae md hinh sin xuat va
thdi quen tifiu diing bfin vftng, sd dyng tifit kifm
v i hifu qua tii nguyfin; til dd, tgo cho mdi tiiinh
vien ttong xa hpi y thde chu ddng phdng, tranh
thifin tai, ttiich dng vdi biln doi khi hgu, gdp
phan giim din ttiift hgi vfi ngudi vi tii sin
Hai Id, chu dgng ra soat cae ca chl, chinh
sich ling vdi cic ngi dung cua Thda thugn;
trfin CO sd do, tiln hinh sda ddi, bd sung vi
ban hanh nhung co chl, chinh sich ve dng phd
vdi bifin ddi khi hau, bio dim phu hpp vdi
nhiing quy dinh mdi se hinh thanh tten quy md
toin ciu va khu vyc ttong tuong lai Trudc
mat, can to chdc nghifin euu ky nhung npi
dung cua Thda thugn, xay dung kl hoach trifin
khai thye hifn phu hpp theo quan diem, myc
tieu va eie nhifim vy, giai phip da nfiu ttong
Nghi quylt Trung uong 7 (khda XI) vl ehu
dfng dng phd vdi biln ddi khi hgu, ting eudng
quin ly tii nguyfin va bio vfi mdi trudng
Ddng thdi, ldng ghfip npi dung dd vio qui
trinh xay dung, thyc hien eae chiln lupc, quy
hoach, ke hogch, ehuong trinh phat trifin Vinh
tfi - xa hpi cua cic bd, nganh vi dia phuang
ngay td giai doan 2016 - 2020 dfi chuin bi cic
difiu kifin cho giai dogn tiep theo Ve liu dai,
can chu ddng lugt hda nhiing quy dinh mang
tinh ring bupc cua Thda thuan vio chinh sach,
phap luat cda Vift Nam, tiln tdi xay dung Lugt
Bifin ddi khi hau quic gia Cung vdi do, cin
sdm ban hinh chinh sich khuyln khich, uu
dai, ho ttg doanh nghifp ttong thyc hifn myc
tieu giim nh? phit thii khi nhi kinh theo Ig
trinh phu hgp, nham tien tdi xda bd cac chinh
sach hd ttp gia doi vdi nhien lieu hda thgeh, kl
td sau nam 2020; thuc hifn bu gia doi vdi cac
dy in phit trien nang lupng mdi, nang lugng
tii tao, nang lupng sgch, tai chl va sin xuit
difn td chit thii
Ba Id, ting eudng vifc hiin thd, thyc thi
cie quy dinh quoc tl va diy manh tiiln khai
phip lugt cua Nha nudc vl dng phd vdi biln ddi khi hgu Tich eye nghifin edu, xay dyng
hf thong cic chi tieu v i cdng cy phyc vy vifc dinh gia, giim sit; xay dyng va van hinh hf ttidng bio eao thing nhat v l eac hogt dpng dng phd vdi biln doi khi hgu eung nhu vifc huy ddng, sd dung nguon ho ttg td Trung uong v i dia phuong Tang eudng vai ttd giam sit cua cic td chuc chinh tri - xa hgi, ngudi dan nhim dim bio tinh minh bach ttong trien khai thye hifn
Bon Id, diy mgnh phit trien nguon nhan
lye; hogt dpng nghifin cuu khoa hpc; phit ttien edng nghe phu hpp dfi chuyfin doi md hinh tang trudng, san xuat, tifiu dung theo hudng phit thii cic-bon thip v i cich thuc thich dng chu ddng, hifu qui vdi bifin ddi khi hiu Coi ttpng phit trien mpt so chuyfin nginh khoa hpe v i cong nghf mui nhgn, nhu: vat lifu thdng minh, chuyln hda nang lugng, nang lupng tii tgo
Ndm Id, tiep tuc phit huy npi lyc, ttanh thu
ho ttg qudc te dfi thuc hien eie cam kfit cua Viet Nam Trong do, cin khuyln khieh, uu dai,
hd ttg doanh nghifp, cic td ehde, c i nhin ting eudng dau tu vio hogt dgng giim nhp phat thai khi nhi kinh, chuyln ddi md hinh tang trudng
v i chu dpng thich dng vdi biln ddi khi h|u Sdm hoan thinh vifc nghifin edu, thd nghifm cdng tic phit trifin thi trudng trao ddi tin chi bon trong nudc v i tham gia thi ttudng cic-bon toan eiu dfi da dang hda ngudn lyc diu tu cho ung phd vdi biln ddi khi hiu ttong nude
v i ddng gdp h; nguySn vfi tai chinh vdi cfng ddng qudc te
Bien ddi khi hgu l i vin de toin eau vi da, dang la thich tiidc gay git dli vdi Vift Nam
Vi thl, thye hifn tdt cie giai phap tiren, se tgo
ca sd, tifin de vung chic de chung ta tin tudng vifc tan dyng thanh cdng cic ca hdi va hda giii hifu qui nhiing thieh thde do Thda thugn Pa-ri mang lai, gdp phin phat triln dit nudc nhanh, ben viing •