An evaluation of impacts of climate change on tourism development in the mekong delta region of vietnam

An evaluation of impacts development in the A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Western Sydney University impacts of cl

An evaluation of impacts

development in the

A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of

Philosophy at the Western Sydney University

impacts of climate change on tourism

in the Mekong Delta region of Vietnam

Van Da Huynh

A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of

Philosophy at the Western Sydney University

Sydney, Australia

2018

tourism ietnam

A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of

Dedication

This thesis is dedicated to my father who passed away during my candidature

Acknowledgements

First of all, I would like to express my deepest thanks my principal supervisor Associate Professor Awais Piracha for his patience, kindness, sympathy, encouragement and intellectual guidance

Secondly, I would like to send my special thanks to my associate supervisors: Dr Hayley Saul and Dr Dallas Roger

This thesis has had the benefit of professional editorial advice regarding language, completeness and consistency from Associate Professor Awais Piracha and Dr Hayley Saul from Western Sydney University

Finally, my appreciation goes to the research team and administrative officers at School of Social Sciences and Psychology and Western Sydney University, especially the Human Ethics Officers

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Table of contents

Contents

Table of contents i

List of tables vii

List of figures xi

Abstract xv

Chapter 1: Introduction: Climate change, tourism, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam and a statement of the problems 1

1.1 Climate change and climate change scenarios 1

1.1.1 Climate change 1

1.1.2 Climate change scenarios 2

1.2 Climate change in Vietnam 4

1.3 Tourism development and climate change 7

1.4 Mekong Delta of Vietnam 9

1.4.1 Location 9

1.4.2 Weather 11

1.4.3 River system 12

1.4.4 Topography 12

1.4.5 Economic 13

1.4.6 Population 13

1.5 Research questions and expected outcomes 13

1.6 Thesis structure 15

Chapter 2: Climate change and the tourism sector in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam 19 2.1 Introduction 19

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2.2 Climate change in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam 19

2.2.1 Temperature 19

2.2.2 Rainfall 20

2.2.3 Salinity 21

2.2.4 Sea level rise 23

2.2.5 Storm 27

2.2.6 Vietnam policy on climate change 28

2.3 Tourism resource in the Mekong Delta 33

2.3.1 The river, fruit gardens and conservation areas 35

2.3.2 Cultural value 35

2.3.3 Cuisines 35

2.3.4 Festivals 36

2.3.5 Handicraft villages 36

2.3.6 Traditional arts 36

2.4 Tourism Development in the Mekong Delta 38

2.4.1 Tourists and income from tourism activities 38

2.4.2 Accommodations and restaurants 41

2.5 Conclusion 41

Chapter 3: Sustainable tourism development, climate change impact, awareness and adaptation 42

3.1 Introduction 42

3.2 Sustainable tourism development 42

3.2.1 Sustainable development and sustainable tourism development 42

3.2.2 Sustainable tourism development principles 45

3.2.3 Sustainable tourism development approaches and tools 46

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3.3 Climate change impacts and climate change impacts on tourism: Sectors and

type of impacts 51

3.3.1 Climate change impacts 51

3.3.2 Climate change impacts on tourism: Sectors and type of impacts 53

3.4 Environmental awareness 59

3.5 Climate change awareness, adaptation, mitigation, resilience and readiness 63

3.5.1 Climate change awareness, adaptation and mitigation 63

3.5.2 Climate change resilience and adaptation readiness 68

3.6 Climate change and tourism concerns: recent projects 69

3.7 Conclusion 72

Chapter 4: Research framework and methodology 73

4.1 Introduction 73

4.2 Climate change evaluation, awareness and adaptation frameworks in the tourism sector: a critical reflection on methods 73

4.3 Research methodology 80

4.3.1 Mixed method approach 81

4.3.2 Questionnaires 82

4.3.3 In-depth interviews 88

4.3.4 Observations 89

4.3.5 Spatial analysis 89

4.3.6 Data analysis 90

4.4 Research Ethics 91

4.5 Conclusion 91

Chapter 5: Impacts of climate change on tourism sector in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam 93

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5.1 Introduction 93

5.2 General evaluation of climate change impacts to tourism sector in the Mekong Delta 93

5.3 Type of climate change impacts to tourism sector in the Mekong Delta 95

5.3.1 Sea level rise impacts 95

5.3.2 Salinity impacts 100

5.3.3 Temperature impacts 107

5.3.4 Rainfall impacts 108

5.3.5 Storm impacts 109

5.4 Level of climate change impacts to tourism sector in the Mekong Delta 111

5.5 Level important of climate change impact factors to tourism sector in the Mekong Delta evaluates by stakeholders 117

5.6 Impacts of climate change to tourism resources in the Mekong Delta 120

5.7 Impacts of climate change to tourism infrastructures 124

5.8 Reality and consequences of impacts of climate change to tourism sector in the Mekong Delta 131

5.9 Conclusion 132

Chapter 6: Climate change awareness in tourism sector in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam 133

6.1 Introduction 133

6.2 Climate change knowledge of stakeholders in tourism sector in the Mekong Delta 133

6.3 Sources of awareness and quality of climate change information sources in the Mekong Delta 139

6.4 Climate change awareness education and action in tourism sector in Mekong Delta 145

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6.5 Climate change awareness implications for tourism sector in the Mekong

Delta 149

6.6 Conclusion 151

Chapter 7: Adaptation strategies for tourism sector in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam under climate change 152

7.1 Introduction 152

7.2 Short-term and long-term adaptation strategies to address climate change impacts in the Mekong Delta 152

7.2.1 Short-term adaptation 154

7.2.2 Long-term adaptation 161

7.3 Adaptation from leaders and tourism businesses perspective in the Mekong Delta 163

7.4 Adaptation from tourists’ perspective to the Mekong Delta 170

7.5 Climate change adaptation responsibility in tourism sector in the Mekong Delta 175

7.6 Conclusion 176

Chapter 8: Future management implications for tourism sector in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam under climate change: a conclusion 177

8.1 Introduction 177

8.2 Implication for central and local authorities 177

8.3 Implication for tourism businesses 180

8.4 Implication for tourists 181

8.5 Future research directions 182

8.6 Conclusion 182

List of references 184

Appendix 1: List of Questionnaires and interview guide 206

vi Appendix 2: SPSS questionnaire analysis data 226Appendix 3: Interview transcripts 256

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List of tables

Table 1.1: Sea level rise scenarios at the end of 21st century in Vietnam 6

Table 2.1: The Mekong Delta salinity 4g/liter size by month in 2008 22

Table 2.2: Province area and population inundated by 100 cm SLR 26

Table 2.3: Number of km2 of natural habitat that will be inundated if a 100 cm SLR occurs 27

Table 2.4: Vulnerability to climate change identification as national target, the words in red indicate Mekong region and its tourism related issues 30

Table 2.5: Level of sensitiveness and adaptability, the red color indicate tourism related issues 31

Table 2.6: Potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise by categories, the red color indicate impacts in tourism sector 32

Table 2.7: Tourism resources statistic in the Mekong Delta 34

Table 2.8: Key tourist destinations in Mekong Delta 37

Table 2.9: International tourists to the Mekong Delta compare to total of Vietnam 40

Table 2.10: International tourists to the Mekong Delta by market (%) 40

Table 4.1: Research questions and how to answer 81

Table 4.2: Principal information for questionnaires survey 83

Table 4.3: Questionnaire collection outcomes 86

Table 4.4: Age of respondents 86

Table 4.5: Gender of respondents 87

Table 4.6: Qualification of respondents 87

Table 4.7: Interviews collection outcomes 89

Table 4.8: Key themes and keywords for interviews 91

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Table 5.1: Lists of tourism destinations impacted by inundation of 100cm 98

Table 5.2: Lists of tourism destinations impact by salinity of 50cm 103

Table 5.3: Lists of tourism destinations impact by salinity of 100cm 105

Table 5.4: Impacts of climate change to local tourism by group (n=124) 113

Table 5.5: Responses to the question: Is the Mekong Delta a region that will experience strong impacts from climate change? 115

Table 5.6: Level of climate change impact to tourism resources in the Mekong Delta 116

Table 5.7: Level important of impact factors of climate change to tourism sector in the Mekong of Vietnam (%), (n=45) 117

Table 5.8: Mean and Std deviation of level of importance of impact factors of climate change to tourism sector in the Mekong of Vietnam (n=45) 118

Table 5.9: Level of possible impacts of climate change threats during tourist’s trip in the Mekong Delta (%), (n=79) 119

Table 5.10: Mean and Std deviation of level of possible impacts of climate change threats during tourist’s trip in the Mekong Delta (n=79) 120

Table 5.11: Level of vulnerable of tourism resources (%), (n=94) 122

Table 5.12: Mean and Std deviation of evaluation on level of vulnerable of tourism resources (n=94) 123

Table 5.13: Will you return and recommend for others to visit Mekong Delta if negative factors of climate change appear in the future (%), (n=79): 124

Table 5.14: Negative impacts of climate change have experiences (%), (n=45) 131

Table 5.15: Experience any negative impacts of climate change during your trips in the Mekong Delta 132

Table 6.1: Heard about climate change (n=45) 134

Table 6.2: To what extent by gender (n=45) 135

Table 6.3: To what extent by qualification (n=45) 136

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Table 6.4: Already heard about the possible future effects of climate change in the

Mekong Delta (%) (n=45) 137

Table 6.5: Where have you heard about climate change (%), (n=45) 140

Table 6.6: Trust information about climate change if heard (%), (n=45) 141

Table 6.7: Mean and Std deviation of trust information about climate change if heard (n=45) 141

Table 6.8: Aware of climate change impacts to tourism sector (%), (n=45) 142

Table 6.9: Aware of climate change impacts to tourism sector by groups (n=45) 142

Table 6.10: To what extent (%), (n=45) 143

Table 6.11: Central and local governments are doing enough by groups, (n=45) 147

Table 6.12: Main barriers need to be removed in promoting awareness of climate change (%), (n=45) 148

Table 6.13: Main barriers need to be removed in promoting awareness of climate change by group, (n=45) 148

Table 6.14: Government needs to open training classes 149

Table 7.1: Level of sensitiveness and adaptability of tourism resources in the Mekong Delta 162

Table 7.2: Adaptation for increase in temperature, (%), (n=45) 164

Table 7.3: Adaptation for irregular rainfall, (%), (n=45) 165

Table 7.4: Adaptation for sea level rise/flood, (%), (n=45) 166

Table 7.5: Adaptation for storm, (%), (n=45) 167

Table 7.6: Adaptation for salinity, (%), (n=45) 168

Table 7.7: Manmade floating markets (n=45) 169

Table 7.8: Adaptation for increase temperature, (%), (n=79) 171

Table 7.9: Adaptation for irregular rainfall, (%), (n=79) 172

Table 7.10: Adaptation for sea level rise/flood, (%), (n=79) 173

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Table 7.11: Adaptation for storm, (%), (n=79) 173

Table 7.12: Adaptation for salinity, (%), (n=79) 174

Table 7.13: Manmade floating markets (n=79) 174

Table 7.14: Main responsibility for tackling climate change (n=124) 175

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List of figures

Figure 1.1: Mekong Delta region in Indo-China peninsula 11

Figure 1.2: Impacts of weather to tourism activities in the Mekong Delta by months 12

Figure 1.3: Thesis organization diagram 16

Figure 2.1: Annual and Inter-Annual anomalies of temperature (0C) in Vietnam 20

Figure 2.2: Expectation of rainfall change ịn Vietnam from 1980s to 2030s 21

Figure 2.3: The Mekong Delta salinity 4g/liter line in April 2008 23

Figure 2.4: Inundation Map of Mekong River Delta at 75 cm sea level rise scenario, red color is inundated area 24

Figure 2.5: Inundation Map of Mekong River Delta at 100 cm sea level rise scenario, red color is inundated area 25

Figure 2.6: The average number of tropical cyclones per year hitting regions of Vietnam in 2 phases (1961-1990 and 1991-2005) 28

Figure 2.7: National target program to respond to climate change 29

Figure 2.8: Mekong Delta tourist map 33

Figure 2.9: Domestic tourists to the Mekong Delta from 2000 to 2013 39

Figure 3.1: The development of sustainable tourism development concept 45

Figure 3.2: Destination strategic management and planning model 48

Figure 3.3: Level of community participation 50

Figure 3.4: The climate change impacts connections 52

Figure 3.5: The climate-tourism interface 54

Figure 3.6: Climate information communication channels in the tourism sector 55

Figure 3.7: The climate change impact to tourism model 56

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Figure 3.8: Relativities scale with respect to tourism and climate change policy 57

Figure 3.9: Four stage of environmental awareness 61

Figure 3.10: Environmental Behaviour model 62

Figure 3.11: The Variable model 64

Figure 3.12: Poster outcome of project: Climate Change Awareness of Communities in the Lower Mekong Basin 66

Figure 3.13: Women's awareness of climate change in the Lower Mekong Basin 67

Figure 4.1: The climate change and tourism information and implementation nexus: data and policy process requirements for developing countries and small island developing states 74

Figure 4.2: Essential element for adaptation strategy 75

Figure 4.3: Sequence of steps in the process of adaptation 76

Figure 4.4: Four stage tourism problem definition and response framework 78

Figure 4.5: Framework for regional tourism destination impact, awareness and adaptation to climate change 80

Figure 4.6: Five sub-regions for questionnaires data collection 85

Figure 4.7: Research procedures 92

Figure 5.1: Impact of 100cm sea level rise scenario to tourism destinations in the Mekong Delta 96

Figure 5.2: Correlation between % inundation of 100cm sea level rise and number of tourists (2015) by province in the Mekong Delta 99

Figure 5.3: A pie chart showing questionnaire responses to the query about possible impacts of sea level rise (n=121) 100

Figure 5.4: Impact of salinity to tourism resources in the Mekong Delta, baseline 1996 101

Figure 5.5: Impact of salinity to tourism resources in the Mekong Delta, 50cm sea level rise scenario 102

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Figure 5.6: Impact of salinity to tourism resources in the Mekong Delta, 100cm sea

level rise scenario 104

Figure 5.7: A pie chart showing questionnaire responses to the query about possible impacts of salinity (n=121) 106

Figure 5.8: A pie chart showing questionnaire responses to the query about whether a perceived change in temperature (n=121) 107

Figure 5.9: A pie chart showing questionnaire responses to the query about possible impacts of rainfall (n=121) 109

Figure 5.10: A pie chart showing questionnaire responses to the query about possible impacts of storm (n=121) 110

Figure 5.11: A pie chart showing questionnaire responses to the question level impacts of climate change to local tourism (n=124) 112

Figure 5.12: Water ‘swallow’ hotel sites in high sea level rise 125

Figure 5.13: Hotels and roads inundated by sea level rise 125

Figure 5.14: A park in Can Tho city inundated by sea level rise 126

Figure 5.15: Roads in tourist area inundated by sea level rise 126

Figure 5.16: River Central Park in Can Tho city inundated by sea level rise, left-hand side is the river 127

Figure 5.17: A tourist wharf and tourist cruise station in Can Tho city inundated by sea level rise 127

Figure 5.18: Night food market for tourist in Can Tho city inundated by sea level rise 128

Figure 5.19: Road in tourist souvenir shops in Can Tho city inundated by sea level rise 128

Figure 5.20: International tourists get confuse with the water inundated 129

Figure 6.1: Hear about climate change to what extent (n=45) 135

Figure 6.2: Main cause of climate change (%), (n=45) 144

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Figure 6.3: Attended a consultation, workshop or conference (%), (n=45) 145

Figure 6.4: Central and local governments are doing enough (%), (n=45) 146

Figure 7.1: Relative adaptive capacity of major tourism sub-sectors 154

Figure 7.2: A temporary barrier to stop water leak into the hotel, however it does not work well 156

Figure 7.3: A Temporary sand bags barrier to stop water entering the hotel 157

Figure 7.4: A temporary barrier to stop water leaking into the hotel, the big box is electricity system 157

Figure 7.5: A small dyke along the river bank to stop water intrusion into land 158

Figure 7.6: A river dam along the bank to stop water intrusion into tourist accommodations 158

Figure 7.7: Water covers a tourist restaurant and a temporary pathway 159

Figure 7.8: A floating restaurant on an islet 159

Figure 7.9: A floating tourist wharf on Mekong River 160

Figure 8.1: Steps for a successful climate change program in tourism 183

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Abstract

Climate change is one of the most complex challenges in 21st Century and failure to meet this challenge raises the spectre of unprecedented reversals in human development The connection between tourism and climate change has been discussed for more than 15 years in tourism studies More recently, debates have shifted to consider effective modes of adaptation and the complex role that tourism might play in this

The Mekong Delta Region of Vietnam is forecasted to face some of world’s most severe impacts from climate change There is a big knowledge gap in research on climate change impacts on tourism in this area While climate change’s impacts on agriculture and fisheries have received much attention from authorities and researchers, impacts on tourism have largely been ignored Due to the low and flat of

a typical river delta, tourism modes that are predominant in the Delta such as ecotourism, islet tourism, national parks tourism and mangrove forests tourism are highly vulnerable to climate change This study presents findings from a field study the authors conducted to fill the research gap on climate change’s impact on tourism

in Mekong River Delta

The study is based on spatial analysis of the region and questionnaires and interviews with local tourism leaders, tourism businesses and tourists The findings indicate that climate change poses a range of challenges for the region’s tourism businesses, and communities relying on them There are five principal impacts of climate change to the tourism sector in the Mekong Delta, consisting of: 1) Sea level rise, 2) Salinity intrusion, 3) Temperature variation, 4) Irregular rainfall and 5) Storms The most important threat is sea level rise Every impact has difference levels and consequences

The study also found that the awareness of climate change in the Mekong Delta is at the upper medium level (level 2) regarding to environmental awareness model of

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Partanen-Hertell et al (Partanen-Hertell et al 1999) However, this knowledge is quite general and it needs more focus on tourism To achieve tourism awareness education in the region there are a wide range of choices in terms of communication channels targeted on certain audiences and availability Further, this research finds significant gaps in climate change awareness among key tourism stakeholders Increasing the awareness and readiness of stakeholders is an important prerequisite in climate change adaptation for the protection of the tourism resources

The study also found that climate change adaptation for tourism resources and infrastructure by local authorities and tourism businesses does not heed global climate change scenarios (IPCC 2013) Currently, climate change adaptation in the Mekong region is short-term and carried out at the institutional level Tourism in the region relies on agriculture, fisheries and other sectors of the economy Most of these related sectors can be successfully adapted to climate change

Although climate change is an interdisciplinary issue this thesis contends that the tourism sector must carefully plan its own adaptations to climate change too The resilience and adaptation process for tourism in Mekong River Delta will be effective

if there is strategic planning based on a bottom up approach that is considered during tourism planning in the region Moreover, vulnerable tourism businesses in low and flat delta areas such as the Mekong need more attention and practical actions from international organizations and local entities to address unprecedented climate change threats

2012 The global average temperature increased more rapidly in recent decades The average rate was about 0.12°C/decade in the period 1951-2012 The global surface temperature is expected to rise from 1.8°C to 4.0°C by the end of 21st century The number of cold days and cold nights has decreased while the number of hot days and hot nights has increased on a global scale since 1950

The IPCC (2013) report relates a trend for increased rainfall in most areas on a global scale from 1901 to 2010 However, in many tropical areas, at the regional scale, it

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has tended to decrease The trend of increase/decrease in rainfall was more apparent

in the period 1951-2010 compared to the period 1901-2010

During the period 1901 - 2010, average global sea levels rose by 19cm with an average increase of 1.7mm per year In the period 1993-2010, the average global sea level rose by 3.2mm/year, demonstrating an increasing rate of inundation Data at sea level monitoring stations show that sea levels have increased globally However, sea level rise is not uniform among regions (IPCC 2013)

1.1.2 Climate change scenarios

Climate change can be attributed to both natural and human causes, and much debate surrounds the relative importance of each (Crowley 2000) The natural causes of climate change are associated with changes in the Earth’s orbital variations, change

in the distribution of continents–oceans on the Earth’s surface, changes in emissions

of solar radiation and long-wave radiation absorption by the Earth, and volcanic activities (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment 2016)

With the advent of the new Anthropocene epoch which is characterized by unmistakable markers of the human impact upon the climate and biosphere (Ministry

of Natural Resources and Environment 2016), a dominant anthropogenic role in climate change has been emphasized For example, a primary argument is that green-house gas emissions into the atmosphere are the most important factor contributing

to climate change (Wayne 2013)

The gathering of climate change projection data was first launched by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1992, called IS92 in order to anticipate future challenges In 2000 the second edition of the climate change scenario was published, called Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nebojs̆a, Nakicenovic & Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III 2000) The IPCC introduced Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as a new ‘scenario approach’ in 2013 Four scenarios RCP (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) have been designed to predict the climate change by 2100, based

on current climate data and patterns

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RCP2.6 was developed by the IMAGE modeling team of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency It communicates a positive scenario under very low green-house gas concentration levels that continue to decline substantially (Van Vuuren 2011) RCP4.5 was developed by the GCAM modeling team at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), United States Its stabilization scenario is based on rates of green-house gas emissions similar to RCP6.0 (Clarke L E et al 2007) RCP6.0 was constructed by the AIM modeling team at the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan This scenario assumes that green-house gas emissions will stabilize after 2100 because of the use of advanced technologies and strategies to reduce worldwide outputs (Fujino J et al 2006) RCP8.5 was developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria RCP8.5 describes possible climate futures by predicting the qualities of green-house gases that will be emitted in the years to come RCP8.5 forecasts an increase in green-house gas emissions from the beginning of the 21st century, reaching to 8.5 W/m2 in 2100 and surging to 13W/m2

in 2200, then stabilizing (Riahi, Gruebler & Nakic´enovic´ 2007)

Above scenarios are only concerned the emission concentration and have forgotten the role of social, economic and political factors which may have a significant impact

to any scenarios Vuuren et al (2014), O’Neill et al (2013) and Vuuren and Carter (2013) developed and fulfilled the scenario named Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) The SSPs describe ‘Plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and natural systems over the 21st century at the level of the world and large world regions They consist of two elements: a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures o development.’ (O’Neill et al 2013, p 387) This scenario includes the following elements: 1) A focus on the description of socioeconomic and environmental trends, 2) Qualitative and quantitative content sufficient to distinguish SSPs from each other, 3) Incorporation of information typically used as input assumptions; 4) Restriction to assumptions that do not include policies and measures directly motivated by climate change, 5) Information sufficient to support elaboration

or extension of global assumptions to local- and regional-scale scenarios (O’Neill et

al 2013) Despite the complexity of many elements involved in the process this

The incorporating of all of the above leads to the establishment of a complex scenario for climate change adaptation, the Scenario Matrix Architecture (Vuuren et

al 2014) This scenario is ‘Based on combinations of climate model projections, socioeconomic conditions, and assumptions about climate policies’ (O’Neill et al

2013, p 388) These scenario elements consist of some fundamental research questions characterized by the RCPs and different in socio-economic pathways in the SSPs (Vuuren et al 2014) Given these goals, this scenario offers a framework for use in climate change research and assessment

1.2 Climate change in Vietnam

Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam were first introduced in

2009 by the Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment A National Strategy on Climate Change was issued subsequently in 2011 and its most recent publication was in 2016 These scenarios are syntheses of climate records and data analysis from national and international research Most of the Vietnam climate change scenarios are published by the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (IMHEN), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and Greater Mekong Delta Sub region (GMS) Although there are some minor differences in predicted outcomes due to difference in data collection

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methods and modeling, all scenarios contend that Vietnam will experience serious impacts from sea level rise, salinity intrusion, rainfall variations, temperature extremes and increasing tropical cyclones

According to statistics from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2016), climate change in Vietnam has been recorded in the following ways: 1) The average annual temperature has increased by 0.620C in the period 1958-2014, approximately 0.10C/decade The temperature increased by 0.420C in the last 20 years that compared to the period 1981-1990 This increase is lower than the global average; 2) Annual rainfall decreased in the north of the country, while it increased

in the south; 3) Extreme temperatures increased in most of the regions, but maximum temperatures decreased in some places in the south of the country; 4) Droughts in the dry season occurred more frequently; 5) High rainfall decreased in the Northern Delta and increased considerably in South Central and Central Highlands; 6) A number of strong typhoons increasing the trend for this extreme weather event; 7) The number of extremely cold days decreased, but there were some abnormally cold spells; 8) The influence of El Nino and La Nina showed increasing trends

Mean sea level over the Vietnam East Sea has increased by about 4.05mm/year recently Sea level rise in South Central Vietnam is the highest at a rate of 5.6mm/year Although there are some differences compared to global climate trends, the climate issues in Vietnam’s situation correlate well with the global trend

Using above mentioned recorded data, combined with modeling methods the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2016) has proposed the following scenarios for climate change in Vietnam for at the end of 21st century

Temperature rise is showing a trend in all regions of Vietnam with the highest increase in the north of the country For the RCP4.5 scenarios, average annual temperatures would increase 1.9-2.40C in the north, and 1.7-1.90C in the south For the RCP8.5 scenarios, temperatures would increase 3.3-4.00C in the north, and 3.0-3.50C in the south Extreme temperature peaks would have an upward trend in occurrence

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Annual rainfall is predicted to increase over the whole country For the RCP4.5 scenarios, annual rainfall would generally increase in the range of 5-15% For the RCP8.5 scenarios, the greatest increase would be over 20% in most of the north, central coast, a part of the south and Central Highlands

Monsoon and climate extremes are even more significant The number of strong and very strong typhoons shows a trend for increasing occurrence, which would result in

a concomitant increase in damages to property with economic strains that this would bring The number of hot days would increase Droughts would become more severe due to rising temperatures and there would be rainfall deficits in the dry season Sea level rise is perhaps the most important threat, especially in the Delta region of Vietnam Mean sea level rise in Vietnam is likely to be higher than global mean sea level rise Sea level rise along the southern coastline would be higher than in the northern coastline The sea level rise calculation for scenarios in Vietnam is indicted

in

Table 1.1 In most cases the sea level will increase by 46cm to 77cm If sea level rises to 100cm and without any adaptation measures, approximately 16.8% of the landmass of the Red River Delta and approximately 38% of Mekong River Delta would be at risk of inundation

Table 1.1: Sea level rise scenarios at the end of 21st century in Vietnam

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2016)

Scenarios Sea level rise (cm)

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1.3 Tourism development and climate change

In 2003, the First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism was organized in Tunisia, hosted by the Tunisian government in association with the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) The conference

‘Aimed to develop awareness among government administrations, the tourism industry and other tourism stakeholders, highlighting both current, and anticipated climate change impacts affecting tourism destinations and the need to carefully consider the consequences of climate change mitigation policies on tourism as well

as the responsibility of the tourism sector to be a part of the solution by reducing its green-house gas emissions’ (Simpson, MC et al 2008, p 10) This conference established that one of the most complex sectors where climate change impacts would be felt was likely to be tourism

Following this conference, many related workshops were held in Europe aiming to connect tourism stakeholders and scientists to form a professional working group In

2005, the Expert Team on Climate and Tourism was established in China by WMO’s Commission for Climatology Following this, many guidelines and publications on the climate change-tourism interface have been released In the following the study outlines the key debates that have emerged from this body of literature

During the 21st century tourism has emerged as one of the fastest growing sectors in the world economy and is a primary source of foreign exchange for many parts of the world (UNDP 2005) Studies such as Hall and Coles (2008) and UNWTO (2007) indicate that tourism has the potential for poverty alleviation, especially in developing countries However, tourism is a highly climate-sensitive economic sector According to UNWTO, UNEP and WMO (2008, p 62) there are four main pathways by which climate impacts tourism

1) Direct climate impacts: Extreme weather and climate change events could cause infrastructure damage, additional emergency preparedness requirements, higher operating expenses and business interruptions

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2) Indirect environmental change impacts: Environment is a main resource of tourism Changes in the environment lead to the changes of ecosystem, water availability and agricultural production

3) Impacts of mitigation policies on tourist mobility: National or international climate mitigation policies could impact the flow of tourists The transport and service costs may increase due to the cost of environmental protection

4) Indirect societal change impacts: Climate change may reduce the GDP and wealth of populations which lead to the decrease in demand for tourism activities

In contrast, tourism also contributes to climate change The CO2 emissions from tourism activities such as transport, accommodation and entertainment activities share about 5% of total global emission (UNWTO, UNEP & WMO 2008) The mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change requires technological, economic and social changes, especially through behavior change (IPCC 2007) The tourism sector can contribute to climate change adaptation by incorporating advanced technologies and processes into its practices and increasing awareness of stakeholders toward a more sustainable industry

The tourism sector has received considerable attention in the reports of the IPCC Working Group on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability However, ‘Knowledge of the capacity of current climate adaptations utilized by the tourism sector to cope successfully with future climate change is currently very limited’ (UNWTO, UNEP

& WMO 2008, p 102) Simpson, MC et al (2008) noted that tourism and climate change research literature has been much fulfilled in the 2000s decade However, there are gaps in the current knowledge about how to undertake climate change adaptation and mitigation, particularly in developing countries and small islands The connections between tourism and climate change are less well-understood in the developing world than in countries with more established tourism histories Meanwhile, emerging in tourism industries in these territories are some of the most vulnerable to climate change As Cruz et al (2007, p 489) has notes:

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‘Nature-based tourism is one of the booming industries in Asia, especially ski resorts, beach resorts and ecotourism destinations which are likely vulnerable to climate change; yet only a few assessment studies are on hand for this review’ One of the biggest challenges for undertaking research on tourism-climate change is that the direct and indirect impacts of climate change to tourism vary with location (Gössling & Hall 2006) and isolating directly observable impacts of climate change

on tourism is challenging (Rosenzweig et al 2007) The UNWTO, UNEP and WMO (2008) indicate that South East Asian tourism is a vulnerable hotpot for increased extreme events, marine biodiversity loss, sea level rise, increased risk of disease outbreak, but that information is only available at a very broad scale Therefore, they call for the development of local knowledge capacities to fill this research gap (Nurse

& Moore 2005) It is to such calls for regional-scale analyses of climate change impacts on tourism that this research project responds

The UNWTO, UNEP and WMO (2008) point out that current tourism activities, destinations and tourist flows could experience long-term impacts from climate change and have a limited capacity to adapt with that change Existing literature on the impact of climate change on tourism (for examples see, Scott and Jones (2005), Elsasser and Bürki (2002), Sievanen et al (2005)) show low levels of awareness by tourism operators, policy makers and a lack of long-term strategic planning on these complex issues

This thesis explains the measurement and documentation of the impacts of climate change on tourism enterprises in the Mekong It aims to evaluate the current tourism strategic planning strategy in the Mekong Delta under climate change threats against

‘best-practice’ strategies emerging in academic literature and through debates on the subject

1.4 Mekong Delta of Vietnam

1.4.1 Location

The Mekong is the tenth-largest river in the world (Mekong River Commission (2015)) The basin of the Mekong River covers a total land area of 795,000 km2 from the eastern watershed of the Tibetan Plateau to the Mekong Delta The river flows for

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approximately 5,000 km through China, Myanmar, the Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam before emptying into the South China Sea The Mekong Delta in Vietnam covers an area about 5% of the total Mekong River basin (Le, T 2006) Located in the southern end it is highly fertile part of Mekong river basin, abundant in nutrient-rich alluvial outwash

The Mekong Delta region in Vietnam (Figure 1.1) is a geographic area of about 40,000 km2, bordered by Ho Chi Minh City to the north and Ca Mau Province in the south The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is covered by sea on three sides with a coastline of over 736km (Nguyen, TV 2005) The region is divided into 12 provinces and 1 city including: Long An, Dong Thap, Tien Giang, An Giang, Ben Tre, Vinh Long, Tra Vinh, Hau Giang, Kien Giang, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau and Can Tho The region’s tropical climate supports the production of tropical agricultural products that are unique in Vietnam A variety of tropical fruits such as mango (mangifera indica), rambutan (nephelium lappaceum), longan (dimocarpus longan) and so on are grown in this area In addition, the dense river system in this area and associated good environment has led to the development of unique cultural assets in terms of settlements and economic development For example, many residents in the Mekong Delta live and do business on river boats With many floating markets all around the delta the local culture is termed the ‘River Civilization’

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tourism activities, reducing its capabilities as an income generator In general, the weather conditions in the Delta are rather good for tourism activities (See Figure 1.2) Out of the twelve months of the year, ten months are considered good for tourism activities

Excellence for tourism activities

Good for tourism activities

Rather good for tourism activities

Not good for tourism activities

Figure 1.2: Impacts of weather to tourism activities in the Mekong Delta by months

Source: Ministry of Culture-Sport and Tourism (2016, p 12)

1.4.3 River system

The Mekong Delta has a dense river system with canals extending some 28,000 km

in total The Mekong River in Vietnam is divided into 2 main streams: the Upper and the Lower The flow of water in both streams is very high with averages of 10,700m3/s, allowing it to dump 100 million tons of fertile soil into the Delta every year However, recently climate change and the construction of hydro power plants have had huge negative impacts on the river system in the region Climate change leads to the variations of rainfall during a year which changes the regular flow of water of the Mekong River The construction of hydro power plants on upper streams

is also barriers of water flow and affects the natural flow of the whole river

1.4.4 Topography

The terrain of the Delta is low and flat with an average height of just +1m (Nguyen,

QK et al 2009) including the Upper Delta and Lower Delta The upper is impacted

1.4.6 Population

In 2015, the population of Vietnam’s Mekong Delta was 18 million This area has a very young workforce with over 50% of the population of labour age (General Statistics Office of Vietnam 2014) Across the Delta there are 159 urban areas (Tran,

AT & Le 2013) A population density of 450 people/km2 has made the Delta one of the biggest metropolitan areas in Vietnam There are 4 main ethnic groups in the Delta: Kinh, Khmer, Hoa, Cham with Kinh making up 90% of population (General Statistics Office of Vietnam 2014) People in the Delta mainly follow Theravada and Mahayana Buddhism

1.5 Research questions and expected outcomes

The Mekong Delta region of Vietnam is forecasted to experience some of the most severe impacts of climate change in the world However, there is a big gap in research about the impacts of climate change on tourism development in the Mekong Delta region While agriculture has received much attention from authorities, tourism has not received much research attention Modes of tourism those are currently important in the Delta such as ecotourism, islet tourism, national parks tourism and mangrove forests tourism are known to be vulnerable to climate change Therefore, sustainable tourism development and tourism strategic planning under climate change are pressing issues for the sustainable development in the region

Climate change literature about the Mekong Delta has identified 5 principal threats from climate change in the Mekong Delta, including: Sea level rise, salinity

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intrusion, temperature variation, irregular rainfall and storms The thesis will determine what the threats of climate change are for the regional tourism sector, how significant they are and what people already know and need to know for effective adaptation measures

The impact of climate change in the Mekong Delta is undeniable Tourism activities

in this region, as a resource-base for businesses, are likely to have close connections with climate change If this is the case, then the following questions arise:

(1) What are the impacts of climate change for tourism development in the Mekong Delta?

(2) What awareness do stakeholders in the tourism sector and the government authorities in the delta region have of climate change and its impacts on tourism? (3) What adaptation strategies have the two sectors contemplated to deal with the impact of climate change on the future of tourism in the delta?

(4) Based on recommendations from sustainability ‘best-practice’ what are the future management implications for the tourism sector in this region?

It is assumed that climate change will have strong effects on local livelihoods and economics This research, based on desk-based research, mapping and data drawn from primary research (surveys and interviews), will achieve the following outcomes It will: (1) Provide an overview of the Mekong Delta’s climate change data, sustainable tourism development and explore the connections between tourism development and climate change, specifically in the Mekong Delta region of Vietnam; (2) Attempt to critically analyze and evaluate current and future effects of climate change on tourism modes (ecotourism, islet tourism, national park tourism and mangrove forests tourism) in the Mekong Delta; (3) Analyze the climate change awareness level and adaptation abilities of the tourism sector and government in the Mekong Delta; (4) Recommend solutions to manage climate change impacts in tourism businesses

The Mekong delta is a vast metropolitan area and climate change has become a pronounced threat to its regional development Climate-related environmental and social changes are predicted to impact agriculture but also many other sectors such as

It is the aim of this research to assist the local tourism community to respond to the threats of climate change This project is not only a contribution to sustainable tourism development but also for the development of the Delta more broadly More importantly, it can benefit macro-tourism planning in the region In practical perspective, the study will contribute, as a detailed case study that examines climate change impacts, awareness and adaptation in the low and flat delta region Together with other existing case studies on beaches, mountains and islands regions, this study will fulfill and enrich the literature about the impact of climate change to the tourism industry

1.6 Thesis structure

This study examines the impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam More specifically, this study investigates what climate-induced factors (social, economic, environmental, and political) impact tourism, climate change awareness levels, adaptation capacity/innovation and the future implications for tourism management in the Anthropocene, an epoch of humanly-induced climate change Figure 1.3 introduces the general structure of this thesis It also shows the connection of chapters throughout the whole project

Figure 1.3: Thesis organization diagram

Theoretical research and problem identifications

Thesis organization diagram

Chapter 1: Introduction: climate change, tourism, Mekong Delta of Vietnam and statement of problems

Chapter 2: Climate change and tourism sector in Mekong Delta of

Vietnam

Chapter 3: Sustainable tourism development, climate change impact, awareness and adaptation

Chapter 4: Research framework and methodology

Main findings

Chapter 5:

Impacts of climate change

to tourism sector

in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Chapter 6: Climate change awareness

in tourism sector

in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

in tourism sector

in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Chapter 8: Future management implications for tourism sector in the Mekong Delta

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The thesis is divided into 3 main sections and 8 chapters

The first section includes 4 chapters This section establishes the theoretical framework for the project and contextualizes the significance of the research within key debates taken from the literature Chapter 1 is the introduction chapter It sets out the context of the study and introduces the research area, outlining the research questions and expected outcomes Chapter 2 provides a critical review of relevant literature consisting of an introduction about climate change impacts in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, as well as its tourism industry Chapter 3 is an in-depth analysis on sustainable tourism development debates, climate change awareness, adaptation and mitigation in general and specifically in the tourism sector In addition, chapter 3 evaluates and analyzes the research gap on the impacts of climate change to the tourism sector in a global context Chapter 4 introduces the research framework, methods and designs A multiple-methods approach has been used to acquire both qualitative and quantitative datasets Most importantly, this chapter describes the process of data collection, input and analysis It also provides an introduction to the ethical considerations adhered to during the study

The second section of this thesis consists of 3 chapters which present the main findings of the project Chapter 5 evaluates the types, levels, and reality of climate change impacts on the tourism sector in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam It combines a spatial analysis of overlapping data layers using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) that record climate change variables, tourism enterprises in the region as well

as data drawn from questionnaires and interviews to spatially map climate change threats and vulnerabilities in the region Chapter 6 examines degree to which stakeholders in the tourism industry are aware of climate change and the nature of that awareness Stakeholders include local tourism government authorities, tourism businesses and tourists This chapter evaluates the extent of climate change knowledge held by stakeholders, the sources of climate change information and its level of qualification, the circumstances of climate change education and translations

of that knowledge into action Chapter 7 evaluates existing strategies on climate change adaptation in the tourism industry against a range of threats, including: 1) adaptation for increases in temperature; 2) irregular rainfall; 3) sea level rise/flood;

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4) increase storm activity; 5) increases in the salinity of water courses Moreover, by embedding these analyses in wider literature and adaptation ‘best-practice’ in other regions, this chapter also recommends regionally-appropriate strategies to cope with climate change issues in the future

The third part of the thesis (Chapter 8) synthesizes and compares all the literatures and outcomes of former work in order to draw conclusions and recommendations for climate adaptation The chapter recommends future management implications for the tourism sector in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam under climate change, including the implications for central and local authorities, tourism businesses, and tourists The chapter also analyses strengths and weaknesses of the study and offers some directions for further research

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Chapter 2: Climate change and the tourism sector in the

Mekong Delta of Vietnam

2.1 Introduction

This chapter reviews the evidence for climate change in Vietnam, focusing on the Mekong Delta, and evaluates predictions for the forms that climate change will take Firstly, the chapter lays out quantitative data for climate change in the Mekong Delta Secondly, the detailed characteristics of the tourism sector in the Mekong Delta are introduced, including tourism resources, tourism incomes, flow of tourists and tourism facilities The significant connection between these two components is established

2.2 Climate change in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Climate records for the Delta show that climate change is happening at a pace of change that is increasing (ICEM 2009) Several studies by research institutions and the Mekong Delta provinces (ICEM 2009; Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment 2008, 2016; Oranop-na-Ayuthaya 2015; Tran, T 2012, 2017) indicate climate change in recent decades consists of rising temperatures, increasing rainfall, salt water intrusion further inland and most importantly, sea level rise Also, more extreme weather events have been recorded

2.2.1 Temperature

According to Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2016) the average temperature across the whole of the Mekong Delta area has been increasing in recent decades at all observational stations The yearly average temperature from 1958 to

2014 increased by 0.50C with an average trend of 0.10C/decade (Ministry of Natural

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Resources and Environment 2016, p 32; Tran, T 2017) (See Figure 2.1) With the RCP8.5scenario, in the mid-21st century the temperature will likely increase by 1.8-1.90C and at the end of the century the temperature will likely increase by 3.0-3.50C compared to the baseline period 1986-2005 (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment 2016)

Figure 2.1: Annual and Inter-Annual anomalies of temperature (0C) in Vietnam Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2016)

2.2.2 Rainfall

In terms of changes in rainfall, recently collected data shows that rainfall intensity has increased, even in areas where total rainfall has decreased (Tran, T 2012) It has been forecasted that by the 2030s the rainy season will start later and rainfall will