TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGOẠI THƯƠNG ESSAY ECONOMETRICS The impact of air pollution indicators and GDP per capita on human’s life expectancy in 2015 Class: KTEE218 1-1718.1_LT Lecturer: PhD.
Trang 1TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGOẠI THƯƠNG
ESSAY
ECONOMETRICS
The impact of air pollution indicators and GDP per capita on
human’s life expectancy in 2015
Class: KTEE218 (1-1718).1_LT Lecturer: PhD Vũ Thị Phương Mai
Trang 2Abstract 4
1 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 6
1.1 Life expectancy 6
1.1.1 Definition 6
1.1.2 Measure 6
1.1.3 Situation 6
1.2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and GDP per capita 7
1.2.1 Definition 7
1.2.2 Components 7
1.2.3 The effect of GDP per capita on life expectancy: 7
1.3 Air pollution 9
1.3.1 Defintion of pollution 9
1.3.2 Definition of air pollution 9
1.3.3 The situation of air pollution 9
1.3.4 The effect of air pollution on life expectancy 10
2 BUILD THE MODEL 12
2.1 Methodology of the study 12
2.2 Theoretical modeling 12
2.2.1 Determine the model type 12
2.2.2 Explain the variables 12
2.3 Describe the data 13
2.3.1 Data source 13
2.3.2 Statistical description 13
2.3.3 Correlation matrix between variables 14
Trang 33 ESTABLISHMENT AND STATISTICAL DIMENSION 16
3.1 Estimate model 16
3.2 Hypothesis Testing 16
3.2.1 Are the results consistent with the theory? 16
3.2.2 Are the regression coefficients statistically significant? 17
3.2.3 Validation of model 17
3.3 Recommendations, Solutions 18
CONCLUSION 20
REFERENCES 21
GUIDELINES FOR USING MODEL 21
APPENDIX – DATA TABLE (Source: World Bank 2015) 22
Trang 4Life expectancy is regarded as one of many noteworthy indicators in measuring anation’s well-being Researches in the last decades have presented several factors thatmake great impacts on human’s life duration In the context of highly development inglobalization, industrialization, and the like, GDP per capita and air pollution have proven
to possess significant influence
It is unavoidable that industrialization and modernization cause environmentalpollution Air pollution, as a part of it, brings about negative effects on human’s health.Recently, the air pollution index has witnessed a dramatic increase As a result, the number
of people catching respiratory diseases rose and the expectation of life changed Neverbefore has the need of profound insight about the relationship between air pollution andlife duration been more essential
In addition, another reason for the change in life expectancy is the fluctuation ofGDP per capita Although constant efforts of government in health care service are beyonddoubt, healthcare benefits have not yet reached every single individual On the basis ofvariation in personal income, different individuals possess different capabilities ofaffording medical care As a consequence, there exist gaps in people’s mortal ages, whichmake impacts on average longevity as a whole This means that GDP per capita plays adecisive part in affecting human life expectancy
Due to justifications mentioned above, it is imperative for us to arm ourselves withmore profound understanding about the influence of air pollution and GDP per capita toaverage life expectancy
In hope of providing a deeper insight, scrutinizing a specific case as well as findingthe most ultimate and radical solutions, the editorial group would like to take the topic
“The impact of air pollution indicators and GDP per capita on human’s life expectancy in 2015” in thorough consideration This essay aims at evaluating the impact
of GDP per capita and air pollution levels of 180 random nations all over the world In theend, we are bound to achieve an objective look into the issue as well as apply appropriatemeasures to make progress in practicing health care tasks
This essay includes the following content:
Abstract
Chapter 1: Theoretical framework
Chapter 2: Building model
Chapter 3: Estimation result and statistical inference
Trang 5Last but not least, due to the limited amount of time as well as some certain limits
in understanding and data collecting, the essay may hardly avoid mistakes The editorialgroup is always willing to receive feedback from readers so as to complete the essay to thefullest
Many thanks!
Trang 61 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
1.1 Life expectancy
1.1.1 Definition
Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the average time an organism is expected
to live, based on the year of their birth, their current age and other demographic factorsincluding sex
1.1.2 Measure
The most commonly used measure of life expectancy is at birth (LEB), which can
be defined in two ways:
a given year) and can be computed only for cohorts born many decades ago, so thatall their members have died
exposed, from birth through death, to the mortality rates observed at a given year
1.1.3 Situation
summarizes the mortality pattern that prevails across all age groups in a given year– children and adolescents, adults and the elderly Global life expectancy at birth in
2015 was 71.4 years (73.8 years for females and 69.1 years for males), rangingfrom 60.0 years in the WHO African Region to 76.8 years in the WHO EuropeanRegion, giving a ratio of 1.3 between the two regions Women live longer than menall around the world The gap in life expectancy between the sexes was 4.5 years in
1990 and had remained almost the same by 2015
fastest increase since the 1960s Those gains reverse declines during the 1990s,when life expectancy fell in Africa because of the AIDS epidemic, and in EasternEurope following the collapse of the Soviet Union The 2000-2015 increase wasgreatest in the WHO African Region, where life expectancy increased by 9.4 years
to 60 years, driven mainly by improvements in child survival, and expanded access
to antiretrovirals for treatment of HIV
Trang 7Graph 1: Human life expectancy at birth, measured by region, between 1950 and 2050
1.2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and GDP per capita
1.2.1 Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period
Per capita GDP is a measure of the total output of a country that takes gross
domestic product (GDP) and divides it by the number of people in the country
Trang 8Graph 2: Plot of life expectancy vs GDP per capita in 2009
The data for this graph is available from the Index Mundi website The data is from2003
The graph shows that life expectancy at birth, increases at a decreasing rate withrespect to GDP per capita (PPP)
The main reason for this non-linear relationship is because people consume bothneeds and wants People consume needs in order to survive Once a person’s needs aresatisfied, they could then spend the rest of their money on non-necessities If everyone’sneeds are satisfied, then any increase in GDP per capita would barely affect lifeexpectancy
GDP per capita isn't the only thing that affects life expectancy Governmentintervention can also affect it A nation could be rich, but if its government ignores theplight of the poor, it could lower the life expectancy
Another reason for the wide variation in the life expectancies for countries with lowGDP per capita would be due to the level of non-market economic activity For example, ifthere is a lot of subsistence farming, people could be working and have enough food to eat,but wouldn’t be contributing much to the nation’s GDP because they wouldn’t be buyingthe food they eat, or selling the food they grow i.e no exchange of money
The relationship between life expectancy and GDP per capita is strong enough to
be the basis of a regression model Simple functions that increase at a decreasing rateinclude multiplicative (hyperbolas) and logarithmic functions
Trang 91.3 Air pollution
1.3.1 Defintion of pollution
Pollution is the introduction of contaminants into the natural environment thatcauses adverse change Pollution can take the form of chemical substances or energy, suchnoise, heat or light Pollutants, the components of pollution, can be either foreignsubstances/energies or naturally occuring contaminants Pollution is often classed as pointsource or nonpoint source pollution
A point source of pollution is a single indentifiable source of air, water, thermal,noise or light pollution A point source has negligible extent, distinguishing it from otherpollution source geometries The sources are called point sources because in mathematicalmodeling, they can be approximated as a mathematical point to simplify analysis Pollutionpoint sources are identical to other physics engineering, optics, and chemistry pointsources and include:
Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is a term used to describe pollution resulting frommany diffuse sources, in direct contrast to point source pollution which results from asingle source Nonpoint source pollution generally results from land runoff, precipitation,atmospheric deposition, drainage, seepage, or hydrological modification (rainfall orsnowmelt) where tracing the pollution back to a single source is difficult
1.3.2 Definition of air pollution
Air pollution occurs when harmful substances including particulates and biologicalmolecules are introduced into Earth's atmosphere It may cause diseases, allergies or death
of humans; it may also cause harm to other living organisms such as animals and foodcrops, and may damage the natural or built environment Human activity and naturalprocesses can both generate air pollution
1.3.3 The situation of air pollution
Air pollution is a significant risk factor for a number of pollution-related diseasesand health conditions including respiratory infections, heart disease, stroke and lungcancer The health effects caused by air pollution may include difficulty in breathing,wheezing, coughing, asthma and worsening of existing respiratory and cardiac conditions.These effects can result in increased medication use, increased doctor or emergency roomvisits, more hospital admissions and premature death The human health effects of poor air
Trang 10quality are far reaching, but principally affect the body's respiratory system and thecardiovascular system The most common sources of air pollution include particulates,ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and sulphur dioxide Children aged less than five years that live indeveloping countries are the most vulnerable population in terms of total deathsattributable to indoor and outdoor air pollution.
The World Health Organization estimated in 2014 that every year air pollutioncauses the premature death of some 7 million people worldwide India has the highestdeath rate due to air pollution India also has more deaths from asthma than any othernation according to the World Health Organization In December 2013 air pollution wasestimated to kill 500,000 people in China each year There is a positive correlationbetween pneumonia-related deaths and air pollution from motor vehicle emissions
Annual premature European deaths caused by air pollution are estimated at430,000 An important cause of these deaths is nitrogen dioxide and other nitrogen oxidesemitted by road vehicles In a 2015 consultation document the UK government disclosedthat nitrogen dioxide is responsible for 23,500 premature UK deaths per annum Across theEuropean Union, air pollution is estimated to reduce life expectancy by almost ninemonths Causes of deaths include strokes, heart disease, COPD, lung cancer, and lunginfections
Urban outdoor air pollution is estimated to cause 1.3 million deaths worldwide peryear Children are particularly at risk due to the immaturity of their respiratory organsystems
Air pollution costs the world economy $5 trillion per year as a result ofproductivity losses and degraded quality of life, according to a joint study by the WorldBank and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University ofWashington.These productivity losses are caused by deaths due to diseases caused by airpollution One out of ten deaths in 2013 was caused by diseases associated with airpollution and the problem is getting worse The problem is even more acute in thedeveloping world "Children under age 5 in lower-income countries are more than 60 times
as likely to die from exposure to air pollution as children in high-income countries." Thereport states that additional economic losses caused by air pollution, including health costsand the adverse effect on agricultural and other productivity were not calculated in thereport, and thus the actual costs to the world economy are far higher than $5 trillion
The air pollution effects have been becoming more and more alarming year byyear Governments and individuals should take drastic measures to mitigate this globalchallenge
1.3.4 The effect of air pollution on life expectancy
Trang 11Graph 3: The Effect of Air Pollution Control on Life Expectancy in the United States: An
Analysis of 545 US counties for the period 2000 to 2007
(Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3521092/ )
Above is one example of the effect of air pollution control on life expectancy Data on airpollution and life expectancy from 545 U.S counties in 2000 and 2007 show that recentdeclines in PM2.5 to relatively low levels continue to prolong life expectancy in the US.These benefits are largest among the most urban and densely populated counties Theseassociations were estimated controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables aswell proxy variables for and direct measures of smoking prevalence
Trang 122 BUILD THE MODEL
2.1 Methodology of the study
air pollution indicators and GDP per capita on human’s life expectancy in 2015."
Why should this stage require a full review of the scope, nature, substance,environment and condition of the subject, and relationships in the process ofmobilization?
statistical models to find out the most suitable one
observations in 2015 from 180 countries For quantitative results, the number ofoutputs should be equal to the number of inputs, which is the data collected by thestatistical method As a result, the team selected information and checked thestatistical significance of the regression coefficients and the suitability of the modelbased on the observed observations comparing with the previous research andsimilar studies, to find the best results to use for analysis
macroeconomics, quantitative methods with the main support of STATA software,Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Word for synthesis and completion of this essay
2.2.1 Determine the model type
Trang 13Variables Meaning Unit
annual exposure
Bas o th sampl ssio fu ctio , the slope indicated in the sample, when the independent th slop i icat i th sampl , the slope indicated in the sample, when the independent wh th i p t
va iabl s C and AP were simultaneously 0, the mean dependent a w simulta ously 0, the mean dependent 0, the slope indicated in the sample, when the independent th m a p t
β 0 The slope β i
̂
variables change by one unit, the mean dependent variable varies βi unit.
2.3 Describe the data
As stated in the theoretical part, the data set consists of three variables The groupwill then provide a description of each variable in the model
Describing data using des, we obtain the following results:
storage display value
variable name type format label variable label
gpc float %8.0g GPC
ap int %8.0g AP
le byte %8.0g LE
Sorted by: