Slide về khủng hoảng tài chính - "Crisis on Wall Street"

Slide về khủng hoảng tài chính - "Crisis on Wall Street"

Crisis on Wall Street

Panel Discussion sponsored by Department of Economics

Alan Blinder Markus Brunnermeier

Harrison Hong Paul Krugman Hyun Song Shin

Total Assets [1952 =1]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Non-Financial Corporate Household

Commercial Banks Broker Dealer

Total Assets [1952 =1]

1

10

100

1000

Non-Financial Corporate Household

Commercial Banks Broker Dealer

US Home Mortgage Holdings

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Agency and GSE mortgage pools Commercial banks

ABS issuers Savings institutions GSEs

Credit unions

US Home Mortgage Holdings

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1980Q1 1981Q1 1982Q1 1983Q1 1984Q1 1985Q1 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 199

1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q

2006Q1 2007Q1

Market‐based Bank‐based

Lehman Balance Sheet (2007)

Cash 1%

Long position 45%

Collateralized

lending

44%

Receivables

6%

Other 4%

Short term debt 8%

Short position 22%

Collateralized borrowing 37%

Payables 12%

Long-term debt 18%

Equity 3%

Assets Liabilities

Bear Stearns Balance Sheet

Assets Liabilities

Cash 5%

Long position 43%

Collateralized

lending

32%

Receivables

14%

Other 6%

Short term debt

11%

Short position 11%

Collateralized borrowing 34%

Payables 22%

Long-term debt

17%

Other 2%

Equity 3%

1998-4

2007-3 2007-4

-.2 -.1 0 1 2

Leverage Growth

Lehman Brothers

1998-3

1998-4

2007-3 2007-4

-.2 -.1 0 1 2

Leverage Growth

Merrill Lynch

1998-3 1998-4

2007-3

2007-4

-.2 -.1 0 1 2

Leverage Growth

Morgan Stanley

1998-3

1998-4 2007-3

2007-4

-.2 -.1 0 1 2

Leverage Growth

Bear Sterns

2007-3 2007-4

-.15 -.1 -.05 0 05 1

Leverage Growth

Goldman Sachs

1998-3 1998-4

-.2 -.1 0 1 2

Leverage Growth

Citigroup Markets 98-04

Total Assets and Leverage

2007-3

2007-4 2008-1

Leverage (log change)

Asset weighted, 1992Q3-2008Q1, Source: SEC

Leverage and Total Assets Growth

Bear Stearns Liquidity Pool (US$ billions)

(Source: SEC)

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb 29-Feb 1-Mar 2-Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar

GENERAL INSURANCE

DOMESTIC BROKERAGE GROUP

DOMESTIC PERSONAL LINES UNITED

GUARANTY CORPORATION

FOREIGN GENERAL INSURANCE GROUP

FOREIGN LIFE INSURANCE

& RETIREMENT SERVICES

DOMESTIC LIFE INSURANCE &

RETIREMENT SERVICES

HSB Group

(Parent company

of The Boiler Inspection &

Insurance)

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Operating loss Q2 2008

LIFE INSURANCE

& RETIREMENT SERVICES

AIG Financial Products

(Capital Markets Operation)

American General Finance

Consumer Finance Group

International Lease Finance Corporation

Puerto Rico

Latin America Middle

East

Europe

Africa

Australia

Brunei China

Japan

Japan

Europe

Middle

East

Latin

America

South

Asia

Caribbean

Guam

Taiwan

Hong

Kong

India

Indonesia

Philippines

Macau

Zealand Singapore

South

Vietnam

US Virgin Islands Including

45 states

in US

-$5.9bn

ASSET MANAGEMENT

Operating loss Q2 2008

-$314m

Operating loss Q2 2008

-$2.4bn

Operating loss Q2 2008

-$827m

AIU Accident

& Health Division

Nan Shan Life Insurance Company

AIG Annuity Insurance Company

AIG American General

AIG Retirement

AIG SunAmerica Retirement Markets

AIG Investments

AIG Private Bank

AIG SunAmerican Asset Management Corporation

AIG

Star Life

Insurance

The Philippine American Life & General Insurance Company

American International Underwriters

Asia and the Pacific

Canada

Imperial A.I.

Credit Companies

AIG Environmental

American International Assurance

American

Life Insurance

Company

AIG Advisor Group

AIG Executive Liability

Lexington Insurance Company

Spiralling subsidiaries

FT Graphic

AIG is a huge multinational insurer, but it

is much more than that A glance at the group’s structure shows why Should it follow Lehman into administration, it would create shockaves across global financial markets

Note: Not all subsidiaries are represented

Markus Brunnermeier

What happened last week?

Harrison Hong

How did we get here?

Paul Krugman

What should be done?

Alan Blinder

Where do we go from here?