Các mô hình toán đánh giá sự thiệt hại về kinh tế do tác động của môi trường ở các khu công nghiệp

Chiing ta phai trai qua cac buac thuc hanh nhu sau, tam goi la "ky thuat danh gia thiet hai kinh te," tien t6i se xay dung mot ''Quy trinh danh gia thiet hai kinh te do tac dong ciia moi

DAI HOC QUOC GIA HA NOI

TRI/ONG DAI HOC KHOA HOC TLTNHIEN

I TAI

(Ca^p Dai hoc Quoc gia)

CAC MO HiNH TOAN O A N H GIA SLTTHier HAI VE KINH

1 GS.TS Tran Van Nhung

2 TS Dang Dinh Chau

3 TS Le Dinh Dinh

4 Ths Nguyen Xuan Trieu

5 PGS.TS Nguyen Huu Ngu

6 PGS.TS Trdn Khdc Hidp

DT/eeij-4

Hanoi 12-2002

PHAN A

BAG CAO TOM TA.T

Bao cao torn tat bann tieim viet

CAC MO HiNH T O A N OANH GlA'SL/THIET HAI VE KINH TE DO TAC DONG COA MOI TRl/dNG 6 CAC KHU CONG NGHIEP

Ma so: QT - 01 - 27 ' 1) Chu tri: POSTS Chu Diic

Khoa Toan Ca Tin hoc

2) Cac can bo phoi hop :

1 GS.TS Tran Van Nhung

2 TS Dang Dinh Chau

3 TS Le Dinh Dinh

4 Ths Nguyen Xuan Trieu

5 PGS.TS Nguyen Huu Ngir

6 PGS.TS Tran Khac Hiep

3) Muc tieu va noi dung :

Bai toan danh gia sir thiet hai ve kinh te do tcic dong den moi

truong cua cac qua trinh cong nghiep hoa, do thi hoa 6 Viet Nam da duoc

de cap den , le te 6 cac de tai, cac bo, cac nganh va cac dia phuang Tuy

nhien dang b muc sa sai tiiy dieu kien cu the cua tiing nai tijtig liic ma

cac nha khoa hoc xay dung de cuang dif an cho phii hap vai hoan canh

Vf du ve o nhiem thi cb bao nhieu loai b nhiem, moi 6 nhiem co pham vi

anh huang nhu the nao, cac yeu to 6 nhiem chfnh, phu v.v van chua duac xet mot each day dii Ve thiet hai kinh.te , den bii ton that, thue moi tmong, dong gop xa hoi dang a giai doan tiiy cac nha lam chinh sach quyet dinh Han nua cac so lieu de xu ly nhieu nai khong dong bo, khap kliicmg Chinh vi vay nhung ket luan khoa hoc se dan den ket qua a muc

do tin cay khong cao

Til do dan den thiet hai ve kinh te nhu the nao Chiing ta phai trai qua cac buac thuc hanh nhu sau, tam goi la "ky thuat danh gia thiet hai kinh te," tien t6i se xay dung mot ''Quy trinh danh gia thiet hai kinh te do tac dong ciia moi trutmg" (xem [10])

Ve noi dung co cac phan sau :

- Xay dung bang dieu tra mSu lay so lieu

Thiet lap mo hinh tinh toan

- Lap chuang trinh vi tinh

- Ap dung cu the cho viing gang thep Thai nguyen

- Phu luc phan loai 6 nhiem va tinh toan thiet hai

- Phu luc cac bai bao da dang

4) Cac ket qua dat duac :

- Da xay dung duac bang dieu tra mau

- Phan loai duac cac nhom 6 nhiem khf, nuac,dat ciia viing khu gang thep Thai nguyen

- Lap duac chuang tnnh tfnh toan thiet hai kinh te

- Hai bai bao duac cong bo tren tap chf va hoi nghj quoc te

5) Tmh hinh kinh phf ciia de tai;

Vai kinh phf 8 trieu qiia eo hep Cho nen chiing toi phai ket hap vai cac

de tai khac de hoan thanh nhiem vu

4

Bao cao tdm tat bang tieng Anh

MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMICAL DAMAGES UNDER THE IMPACTS OF

ENVIRONMENT IN INDUSTRLAL REGIONS

CODE (QT - 01 - 27)

Coordinator : Prof Dr Chu Due

Faculty of Mathematics - Mechanics - IntoiTnatics

I Participants

1 Prof Dr Chu Due

2 Dr Dang Dinh Chau

3 Prof Dr Tran Van Nhung(Bd GD &DT)

4 Dr Le Dinh Dinh

6 Ms Nguyen XuSn Trieu

7 Prof Dr Nguyen Huu Ngu (Tin hoc)

8 PGS.TS TRan khac Hiep (Khoa MT)

Time : from 12/2001 to 12/2002

II Background

In recently years many factories has been established in Vietnam Behind the great benefit of economy apeared a lot of environmental damages which has great insluences But how to calculate thouse intluences In this project we give some mathematical methods to solve this problem

III Acctivities

- Cooperation with economics University of Hanoi

- Coperation with the centre for regional research and Development-Red river Delta

- Copperation with Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

- Weekly seminar for Participants

- Attending the conference of foresteconomics in Germany, October, 2002

IV Results

- Step 1: Set up the inoestigational table for collection of data

- Step 2 : Collection the data at Metal Center Thai Nguyen

fit)ml995to 2001

+ Statistical Method and system Analysis

Step 4 : Designing the program for computer

We have some publication in following :

+ On the asymptotic equivalence of linear differential equations

in Hilbert spaces,

-h A methematical method for assessing of quality of

plantation forestry in Vietnam

V Conclusion

- Up to now there is the following methods

+ Method of Tables

+ Method of mape join

+ Method of lenear models

+ Method of unlenear models

+ Mothed of energy balance

- Hier we use the lenear models to calculate the economical damages And then we apply the modeling for the Thai Nguyen metal center

- Finaly we give a computer progam for calculation

Phan xac nhan

XAC NHAN CUA BAN CHU NHIEM KHOA CHU TRI DE TAI

(Ky va ghi ro ho ten) (Ky va ghi ro ho ten)

P^S, f ^^ ^^ ^y^^-^ ^"^ ^^^ "^

t^

(TYu -^^ t-i t

CUA TRUONG

PHAN B BAO CAO CHINH

CAC MO HiNH TOAN OANH GIA SI/THIET HAI VE KINHTE

0 0 TAC DONG CUA MOI TRI/lOrNG 0 CAC KHU CONG NGHIEP

Chu Due Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha Noi

Mo hinh hoa Chuong trinh vi tfnh chuyen dung

Cac bai bao cong bo

Sd do phan loai 6 nhiem khong khf khu gang thep TN

So do phan loai 6 nhilm trong dat khu gang thep TN

So do phan loai 6 nhiim trong nuoc khu gang thep

TN Tfnh toan thiet hai kinh te

Phieu dang ky ket qua de tai NC-KH Tai lieu tham khao

«« «

CAC MO HINH TOAN OANH GIA SIJ THIET HAI VE KINHTE

DO TAC DONG CUA MOI TRUfilNG 0 CAC KHU CONG NGHIEP

§ 1 DAT VAN DE

Bai toan danh tjia su thiet hai ve kinh te do tac dong den moi

tiorcfng cua cac qua trinh cong nghiep hoa, do thi hoa b Viet Nam da duoc

de cap den , le te 6 cac de tai, cac bo, cac nganh va cac dia phuang Tuy

a

nhien dang 6 muc doo sai , tuy dieu kien cu the ciia tirng nai timg liic ma cac nha khoa hoc xay dung de cuang du an cho phij hap vai hoan canh

Vf du ve o nhiem thi co bao nhieu loai o nhiem, moi 6 nhi^m cb pham vi

anh huang nhu the nao, cac yeu to 6 nhiem chinh, phu v.v van chua duac xet mot each day du Ve thiet hai kinh te , den bij ton that, thue moi truang, dong gc3p xa hoi dang a giai doan tiay cac nha lam chinh sach quyet dinh Han niia cac so lieu de xu ly nhieu nai khong dong bo khap

khieng Chinh vi vay nhung ket luan khoa hoc se dSn den ket qua b muc

do tin cay khong cao

Vai de tai nay, trong pham vi nho hep chiing toi chi muon de cap den mot khia canh nho Do la su anh huang tai moi trurtng do cac khu cong nghiep san sinh ra Tii do dan den thiet hai ve kinh te nhu the nao Chung ta phai trai qua cac buac thuc hanh nhu sau, tam goi la "ky thuat danh gia thiet hai kinh te," tien tai se xay dung mot "'cong nghe danh gia Ihict hai kinh te do moi tniong" (xem [10])

§2 PHUONG PHAP LUAN

6 day chung ta diing phuang phap phan tich he thong de danh gia thiet hai ve kinh te

2,1 Bo tri thi nghiem, lay so lieu :

Truac tien ta phan biet cac loai doanh nghiep

- Doanh n^ihien san xuat: vf du cone tv uanu thep Thai n^uven, con'tx ix \i

mang cong ty than, cong ty dau mo, cong ty bong vai sai v v

- Doanh nuhiep dich vu thucmy mai: Conu t\ du lich lu hanh, conu l\' lU van, conu tv dau tu, conu ty dao tao hoc nj^ihe cony tv luat,.v v

- Doanh nyhien phuc vu conu dony: vf du conu.tv cav xanh, cone tv cone vien, cong tv chieu bone, cone tv chieu sane do thi v vv

Moi loai cong ty co mot sir tac dong den moi tiarang khac nhau va

tir db anh huane den kinh te cune khac nhau

0 trong dc tai nay chiing toi chi xet den loai doanh nghiep san xuat

ma cu the la cone tv eane then Tliai Neuven

Doi vai loai nay thi viec bo tn thf nghiem de laV so lieu nghien cuu phai dua tren cac dac diem sau:

- Doanh nghiep do chiem 1 dien tfch mat bang bao nhieu tren loai dai canh lac ei eo ma rone hane nam hav co dinh

- Doanh nehiep san xuat loai hane

e'l Doanh nghiep sinh la cac loai 6 nhiem nao

- Pham vi anh huang ciia timg loai o nhiem

- Tac hai cu the ciia timg loai 6 nhiem den san xuat nong lam nghiep den sue khoe cong dong benh nghe nghiep truyen nhiem thai

I I C L V A

- \li phcii CO so lieu theo chuoi thai gian de phuc vu cho qua innh

du bao gan \ a du bao xa

Tii' do ta de ra cac chi lieu tham so, can do dac: ta co bane dieu tra sau:

HANG 1 DIEU TRA SO LIKU MOI TRUONG

f)HU lU Bu dap ilti'ch

HAN(;2.1 Dl£u TRA SO LIEU SlTC KHOE

Ire

J=4 Ihenh2

.O LIEL s u e

•

J=7

; benh : 4

HANG 2.3 DI^U TRA SO LIEU SUTC KHOE

J = l l benh 6 Tre

D^^^^^^T TJIEU 1 RA SO LIEU KINH TE

SOL-) j

' I.D Tre

Cac buac lien hanh cua mo hinh hoa nhu sau:

2.2.1 Liet ke cac phucmg phap xay dung mo hinh

Cho den hien na\' cb cac phucmg phap sau day:

a) Phuang phdp bdng bieu Pes kin (1989)

Tuc la phucmg phap liet ke cac hang rtiiic San pham chuyen tij'

nganh no ib\ nganh kia, san pham dau tu san pham bc) ra phiic k;i san

pham cho cai tao moi trucmg, san pham khac phuc hau qua mc^i trucmg, san pham cho quy hoach m()i tmang san pham de phong anh huang cua

mo\ trucmg (xem [ 5 |)

/;) Phuang phdp chap bdn do

Lay sc^)' lieu tiing nganh, timg khu vuc, tiing dia phucmg va tcSng hap dua len ban d6

c) Phuang phdp mo hinh tuyen tinh

Db la phucmg phcip can bang lucmg vat chat ciia he kinh te: tu dc)

Xcic dinh eia thanh, lucme san pham lucme thco-dau neu'cvi va de nehi thue mc')i trucmg Vc phucmg phap nay cho den hien nay mc') hinh chu yeu van

la ciia LeontieL

d) Phuang phdp mo hinh phi tuyen

Dua \'ao cac ham san xuat phi tuyen va phucmg irlnh can bang vat chat giUa cac nganh, dinh mirc thue moi truang, til dc) xac dinh cac neUc-mg tcM uu cho cac nganh phucmg phap nay cc) ten goi la CGE (ciimputable General Equilibrium)

c) Phuang phdp can bdng ndng lugng

Dc^ne nane lucme kinh te di tii' thap sane eao, tu do anh hucme den qua trinh phai tnen kinh te Hay nc)i each kliac anh huc'mg den cct cau kinh

te ciia he.(Yagi-Japan)(xem 111 |)

2.2.2) Quyet dinh chon phucmg phap de xay dung mo hinh

2.2-3) Xay dung phan mem cho mc") hinh

2.2.4) Lap sc:^ d() khoi tinh loan va cuoi ciing la viet chucmg trinh chi tiet

^ ^ — ^ ^ P " ^ ^ phong, bang so lieu thuc nghiem dieu chinh mc") hinh

2.2.6) Quyel dinh mo hinh pho cap

1.}* Chirang trinh chuyen dung

§ 3 \ P DUNG

3.L Ly thuyet

Tren ca scV quy trinh cc)ng nghe nhu vay chiing toi thu ap dung cho mcM kliu cc'')ng nghiep cu the DcS la khu gang thep Thai nguyen Khu gang

ihcp TN la mot khu viia nam trong dia hinh cc'^ do thi cb mien niii cc)

irune du Dc) la mc3t doanh nehiep nam ti'one 1 he sinh thai dien hinh, va cac loai (') nhiem cung dien hinh

3.1.1 Buctc 1: Dieu tra sc*)' lieu trong vong 5 nam wb lai day liic ma cac quv trinh cc^ne nehe san xuat tuane dc^ii 6n dinh, chua cc) bien dc^ne

ItVn Tii' dc) cac loai c*) nhiem phai ihai ciia cac quy trinh san xuat cung nhu

ludne dcM on dinh Cc') the} tc")ne ket lai kliu eang thc^p Thai Neuven co cac

loai (') nhiem sau day:

^^ Trong nucVc va khong khi: PH BOD, COD, DO, N O PO, Brom Clo Florua NH4 SiO., Fe long so, Cu tc*)ng s d Cu tu do Magic Nhc~)m

Molipden, CO, SO NO NO- H.S, kem Phenol, Xianua, dau md,

Colilonn chi Ascn, Tliu\' ngan Cadimi H dc*) phcmg xa a H dc*) pluuig

\a {]

'' Trong dat: PH Miin, Niuy, P 0 „ K.O, P de lieu Ca^^ Mg^^

C F C Cr SO;-, dc*) dan dien M^\ Fe""" Na" Pb, Cadimi Asen Hg

H.dc^ng phcmg xa a, H.dc*) phong xa p

-'' Cac loai benh tat do moi trucmg gay ra nhu sau:

Huyel ap cao viem than man tinh, ung thu, mat hc)t viem phe quan (nguon xem 111, | 2 | , |3|)

* Ve thiet hai mc*)i tmcmg trong 3 nam qua xi nghiep cung da tach

ra moi lucmg chi phi nhat dinh de khac phuc va cai tao Chane han chi cho

13

s»^ w, WW, W44V tMiv^ix^ wiiwii^ wnh, chi cho cai lien cc*)ng nghe nang cao

phuc lofi bii doc hai,

Ta't ea cae so lieu dU(;c dieu ira theo cac bang 2

3.1.2 Buc'tc 2: Xay dung mc') hinh

3.1.2.1.) Phan loai cac 6 nhiem

3.1.2.2.) Xac dinh pham vi anh hucmg ciia cac o nhiem dien hinh

(quyet dinh diing phucmg trinh khuech tan nao cho phii hop \cyi dia hinh)

3.1.2.3.) Truck lien diing mc') hinh tuyen tfnh, tien tcVi diing mci hinh phi tuyet tfnh

3.1.2.4.) Xay dung phan mem

3.1.2-5.) Tfnh loan

3.1.2.6.) Lap moi quan he ham

+ giira doanh thu va thiet hai mb irucVng:

+ eiu'a dau tU va thiet hai moi irucme

+ eiua thiet hai mc^i trmme theo [hb\ eian vcVi 1 cone nehc nhat

dnih

3.1.2.7.) Suy dien mc)t so quan he khac Nhu dc)ng lao dc^)ng tu nc")ng

thon ra ihanh thi xf nehiep, xf nehiep anh hucme den neuc")n lao done \'une lan can v.v

Cc) the torn lat ducVi dane sc^ dc"*) sau

s o DO NGHIEN CUU

Chon xf nghiep

Dau vao (Bane mau)

Chfnh sach

phap lenh

nha nuac

K h k phuc MT cai tao MT quy hoach MT

Cac moi Hen quan khac

theo dau tu

theo dtninh thu

Kien dC nehi •—

chfnh sach

Tone dau tu Tong doanh

thu

' l - i OUI^'V^ - ' I i v - l l l i a i i i i

3.1.3 1) Lap bang so lieu c) nhi<^m

3.1.3 2) Ky hieu cac dai luong tinh toan

3.1.3 3) Xac dinh pham vi anh huc'mg

- Dieu tra theo phieu tham dc)

- Tinh loan theo phucmg trinh khuech tan

+ Trong khf (xem [ 3 1)

-I- Trong dat (xem [ 8 1)

+ Trong nudc (khe, suo'i song, ho)

3.1.3 4) Phan loai 6 nhiem

3.1.3 5) Tfnh loan

- Xem mc*)i trUcmg la mc^)t khu vuc kinh te

- Cac phan xuc'mg la cac khu vuc kmh te: y te ciing la khu vuc kmh le

- Xac dinh mc*)i lien he eiua eia thanh, phuc lai lucme bc'me va nghia vu dcmg gcSp cho mcM tniang (thue mc*)i ti-Ucmg cho tiing phan xucVng)

Theo mo hinh ciia Leonlief ( xem \ 5 | )'

Goi x,| la san pham ciia khu vuc i vao khu virc j

p^ la gia thanh ciia khu vuc i

1, la luang/lao dc3ng x san pham cua khu vuc i,

v^ la lucmg/san pham

X, la tc1ng doanh thu ciia khu vuc i

Khi dc') la CO mo\ lien he eiu'a p 1 v

^ - 1 1 1

Dua vao L v, la xac dinh duc^c p, va netrac lai

- Sau khi tfnh loan duac gia thanh cho iimg khu vuc kinh te i la chuyen qua tfnh loan ic'mg lhic}l hai theo mo hinh luyen tfnh ( xem [ 4 j )

3.1.3 6) Dung ly thuyet hoi quy lap cac quan he ham

Goi Q, la thiet hai moi trudng tai thdi diem i (c6 the la ihang quv

toan tdi uu, xac dinh thue mc*)i tmdng va [Mian uong gop cua nna nuac sao cho cue dai phuc loi (mc) hinh phi luyen)

Bay gid ta lien hanh qua 7 budc tren :

a) Lap bang sd lieu mau (trong § 2)

b) Xac dinh pham vi anh hucimg:

+ Trong khong khi

i, vcVi n mau do (xem |8|)

c) Ky hieu :

1) Cac phan xUc'mg trong doanh nghiep

k = 1 2, s 2) Cac chat d nhiem i : i = L 2 .n

6) V:'^': eia thanh khu 1 dem vi d nhiem i

I o

7) NBL*^]: sd benh nhan ngucri Um (> 18 tucji) mac benh j do d nhiem i gay ra d quanh viing anh hudng do phan xucmg k, tai thdi diem t

8) NBTj'j*: sd benh nhan tre em (< 17) mac benh j do d nhiem i b

viing anh huc'mg ciia phan xudng k, tai thdi diem t

9) Pi^'nj^ gia dieu tri 1 bc^nh nhan irci em benh j do d nhiem i

10) P^] ij: gia dieu tri 1 benh nhan ngucn km benh j do d nhiem i 11) Cjj^ chi phf phdng benh (tiem chiing) ddi vdi benh j do anh huc'mg ciia i

12) E]^: dau tu nang lucmg (dau ma, than, ciii, ga, dien) d phan

xuc'me k tai thdi dic^m t

13) E->*: dau tu nang luang do nha nucVc cung cap

14) Zi^ : tdng chi phf bii dap thiel hai mdi trucmg ciia phan xuc'mg k ihi I (den bu dat canh tac san lucmg mat di do dien ifch thu hep)

15) Z-.^ : long bii dap thiet hai mdi tnic'mg do nha nudc bao cap cho phan xuc'mg k lai I

16) GDP^': tdng gia In san pham (doanh ihu) ciia phan xuc'mg k tai t 17) PBHBLjj: gia thit;t hai bi ddng (gian tiep) chi Ira bao hiem cho

1 neUc'^i km bi benh i do d nhiem i tai phan xuc'me k, lhc)i eian i: kJion^' di lam van hUc'mg che dc)

18) PSSBT,,^ : gia chi phf san sdc ddi vcM 1 benh nhan tre em benli j do i 19) Y^': chi phf khii d nhiem d phan xucmg k, thc:fi diem t

20) QBL^': chi phf dieu tri benh nhan nguc^i km

c'y phan XUc'mg k tai t

21) QBT^': chi phf dieu tri benh nhan tre em d phan xudng k, lai t 22) C^': tdng chi phf du phdng benh tat, sue khoe cdng ddng

f san scic tre em bi benh

d) Phan loai o nhiem

e) Tfnh lipng sd anh hudng eiia d nhiem

Ta cd the theo luc^c dd sau dav: (xem |5|)

X,.: phan san pham ciia i cho vao khu vuc j

X,: tdng san pham khu vuc i

W^: san pham cudi ciing ciia khu vuc i

a;; = — - :

IJ

X

moi san pham khu \ uc j can bao nhieu san pham cua khu vuc i

a = (Qij ),i^,^: = ma Iran ca cau kinh te

: = ma Iran kinh te mc:^ rone

Irong do a,,^| i la so lao ddng can cho mdt san pham nganh i

Goi cac chat d nhiem la i i = 1, n

Cac dia diem dieu tra la j : j = 1 2 m

Goi X,, la nc*)ne dc*) o nhiem i lai dia diem i- Khi dt) ta cd

cac he so uan nhau moi cho n-1 6 nhiem do cap he so nao dat max lai

ghep thanh nhdm mdi Cd the tiep tuc cho den het Cudi ciing cdn Iai 1 nhorn Ta se cd luac dd (chane han nhu sau)

Khi dd cac d nhiem nao trong 1 nhdm cd nghla la ve mat tri sd luvel ddi ciia ndng dc*) ciia chiing lUtmg ducmg nhau, cho nen cd the \el dai dien trong nhdm de tir dd phan loai anh hudng den cac loai benh nghe nehic^p Chi can xel 1 dien hinh la cd the suy ra cho cac d nhiem kia Giam ihicju qua trinh xet nghiem tat ca cac loai d nhiem Gay tc)n kem qua Idn

anh huc'me eiia cac d nhiem dien hinh

rdi suy ra cho cac d nhiem khac Khdng can \6i het cac loai d nhiem cung

eav ra tdn kem

Ngoai ra dua vao cac nhdm d nhiem da cd the lam quy hoach du trii

kinh phf xu ly 6 nhiem dem gian hem, khdng can lam cho tiing d nhiem ma

chi can lam cho d nhiem dien hinh trone nhc)m va nhan he sd len Tdm lai don gian riit gon qua trinh thf nghiem va tfnh U)an

O day la diing phuang phap tieu chualn phuang sai ciia L.Oi'loci Goi X, i = 1 n sd 6 nhiem

j = L m cae dia diem phai thai

dUpc ma Iran R " * = (r^,J *)=i, „ =

Danh dau Sj,^ = Max : = Sj,,j|

Tfm ma Iran tuang quan lan 2:

{:>

Tfnh ma Iran tuang quan lan 3

Cii" the tici'p tuc cho den het ta duc;fc day S, m,, S-, m S,^m,,

Khi dd trone sc*) ciia d nhiem thu m, se duc:^c xac dinh bc'ti cdne thUc:

ira len d6 \c3t ( xem | 4 | )

0 Xac dinh gia thanh cho tiing khu vuc kinh le (phan xuc'mg)

( xem [41

)-Uau vao X,j vaX, hoacW,

= P, - Z ^ ' j P

V: h*

r tnrm ma

p la gia thanh tren moi don vi n^anh i

VJ la gia ki\ nhuan tu 1 dem vi nganh i

(hay cdn goi la lucmg/san pham)

\ la lucmg/san phaim dau ngudi ;

2:

tm tmat eia (eoi la luane hen vune) g) Tfnh loan thiet hai

Xet tai phan xudng k thdi diem t

(25) Y^^ = ^ X i Vj'^* : long chi phf khii d nhiem

i = l (26) QBL*^^ ^ S X ^ ^ ^ i j - ^ B L : t^^^ng^hi phidieutnbenhnguc-yi km

(29) Q B H B L ^ ' ^ ^ N B L ^ ] PBHBLJJ long thiet hai gian Uep chi ira

bao hiem neudi km

(30) Q S S B T ^ ^ ^ ^ N B T , J V P S S B T , J ^ tcSng chi phf san sdc ire em bi

' J benh

Tdng thiet hai tai phan xucmg k, thcti diem I

(3 I) Q^^ = Y*"^ + QBL^^ + QBT^^ + C*^^ 4- QBHBL^^ ^ QSSBT^^ + zf^ + Z^^

(32) Tdng thiet hai thuc le

g=kt ^Qki pi

irong dd P' la truai gia tai thdi diem I

6 day Vj trong (6) duc^c xac dinh nhd budc d) tfnh loan tu pj^, v^

va 1^ la gia thanh san pham lucmg/san pham \ a lucmg/san pham lao dcpng d phan xucVng k: k = 1 s

Khi dd tdng thiet hai ciia ca doanh nghiep tai thdi diem t

se la Q' = I ^ Q ' "

s

(33) Q^^ = X^^""' • ^^^^^ ^^' ^^^^ ^^•

k = \

h) Tim ham quan he du hao

Ta CO day so lieu thiet hai theo chuPi thoi gian: Q' Q ' : t = l , 2 v

tong nang lupng dau tu: E^ + E2' = E'^' =^ t

- Cho la khci nang phan doan, miic do thiel hai d nhiem luang quan

\di dau tu nane luane xav dune kinh te nhu the nao

- Va cho ta kha nang du doan khi GDP lang len ihi thiet hai mdi truc)ng cung bien ddng ra sao Tii' dd cd ke hoach xii ly (xem [6J)

}.2 Thuc hanh a khu gang thep :

3.2,1) Dieu tra so lieu :

25

Bdng 1 Cdc loai 6 nhiem vao ddt quanh khu vuc khu gang thep Thdi Nguyen

-

-'7r

<7,

mg/iOOg mg/i()()g

0.7 34.04 0.028 0.042 O.OO 0.23

1

mg/kg !25 mg/kg

me/ku mg/kg

hm(3gA:g

O.S

2 2 0.15 0.2.^

in[3g/kg !4.3

Diem 2 Cao Ngan

5.25 6.8 0.4

1 1.39 0.026 0.03 1 0.36 0.61

6 0.3 2.0 0,10 0.10

2.5

i

Diem 3 Nui Doi

7.5 15.1 1.4 17.06 0.02 0.023 0.0 0.17

18 0.5

5 0.16 0.08

1.8

Diem 4 Klianh Hoa

7.5

8 1.0 10.24 0.02 0.032 0.0 • 0.17

41 0.8

9 0.17 0.32

5.3

Diem 5 Cao Ngan

7.8 17.0 1,0 18.38 0.144 0.029 0.0 0,15

20 0,7

0 T

0.28 0,32

5.3

Diem 6 Nehien i Sane •

8.14 41,0 49.4 91.4 0.032 0.(^28 1.08 0.8

9 0.3 1.9 0,25

10000

73000

1

Diem 7 1 Tliac Lac

6,51 1.4

2 2 3.97 0,020 0,02 I 12,78 0,2

17 0,4 1.8 0.21

-'Vf

• T

1 khu nha kJiach 7.9 0.8 0.121 0.122 0.134

I)

kJiu

NK clem 21.4 1.7 0.164 0.134 0.126

0

nha idiiich

20,184 1,225 0.152 0,132 0,121

1

6

16 vol 10/95

5.6 0.5 0.117 0.102 0.101

1

/ 1

16 voi j 12/95 ,

5.7 , 0.57 0.102 0.101 0.102

1

iram 35kv

12.9 j

1

0.57 !

1 0.103 ! 0.10!

1 1

0-105 1

1

1

mg/l mg/l mg/l mg/l

1 khu Van phong !

6,00 3.95

9,4 4,5 0,0 0.0

0.07 15,2 0.03

0.04

18

3.01 3.12

0.0 0.0

0.002 0.0058 0.00007 0.00035

2 Trai cau

5,79 0.56

3.6 7,2 0,0 0.0

0.16 14.5 0.04

0,01

1 S ' 0.0

0

0.00018

3 khu Tap the

6,5

0.54 12,8

0.0

0,0035 0,0055 0,00006 0,00035

4 Tuyen quang

6,99

1,1

114 5,6

0

0

0.01 9,45 0,03

0.03

5,0

3,06 0.19 0.002

0.0

0.0084 0.0062 0.00008 0.00028

5 khu vuc San xuat

6,5

3,03 6,25 2,67 0,002

2,4

0.053 10,2 0.57

0,005

^ 12 0.17 0.002 0.003

2.2

0.01 0.009 0.OOO1 3.0008

6 Thac lac

6,5

0.81

1 19.2 7.10

0

0

0.24 14,8 0,13

0,03

16

0.0 0.1

0.0032

0.0

0,005 0,006 0,001 0,0005

7 Thac lac thuang luu

0.03

14

3.02 0.14 0.0001

0

0,003 0.006 0.00007

1 0,0005

8 Thac lac

ha luu

6.9

1.23 17.8

1

3.05 0.003 0.0065 0.00009 0.0001

27

Bdng 4 Chi phi sue khoe (2001) viing ldn can khu gang thep Thdi Nguyen

151

Gia tirnu ca chCra (ir)

0.008 0.68 0,02 0.04 0.24 0.0002 0.62

Chua (tl)

17.549 219.853 6.6561 27.73375 106.901 0.252125 93.28625

Gia tiing ca thanh toan

BH (tr) 0.01

0.00 0.0026 0.01 0.00 0.0001 0.18

Tong hao hiem (tr)

25.0935

0 0.95822 7.931853

0 0.180269 26.6798

Bang 5 Chi phi bit ddp cdi tao moi truong khu vuc quanh khu

gang thep Thdi Nguyen (Zf)

641

Bdng 6 Chi phi xu ly 6 nhiem khu vuc quanh khu

gang thep Thdi Nguyen (J^^)

Thanh tien

6 (trieu) 0,74 (tneu )

8 (trieu ) 2,44 ( tneu) 1,63 (trieu ) 2.06 (trieu )

1483 tneu (Zj)

3.2.2) Chtiang irinh tinh loan thiel hai mc')i tmc^ng

Ky hieu moi : K la khu CN k = 1 h

/ la phan KUcVng cua k / = Is

i la chi SC) chat 6 nhiem i = 1 n

Chi phi tai t cua ca cioanh nghiep Q^ = ^ Q

Trong dcV Y / ^ = x|V V;'^ chi phi xu ly o nhiem

Z,^: bii dap MT dc")i vcVi c^ nhiem i tai ihcti dit^m t: phan xircVng /

PHA.N NHOM C.\C CHAT 6 NHIEM VAO D.\T

CUA VUNG KHU GAN(i THEP TH.AI NGUYEN

He so Cac chat dugfc ghep nhom

Ca CEC Na Mu AI )