Nghiên cứu cơ sở khoa học điều hành hệ thống hồ chứa thượng nguồn sông hồng phục vụ phát điện và cấp nước chống hạn hạ du

Cac can bo tham gia Tien CO sd phan ti'ch dac diem ddng chay iwivd can va chiic nang ciia he ihong ho chiia ihuang ngudn song Hong, trong do lap irung vao 2 ho chiia Hda Blnh-Tuyen Qua

DAI HOC QUdC GIA HA NQI

NGHIEN CQU CO SO KHOA HOC OlEU HANH

D £ T A I NGHIEN CUtJ KHOA HOC DAC BIET

CAP DAI HOC QUOC GIA HA NOI

Ma so: QG.07.20

Chu tri: PGS-TS Nguyen Hmi Khai

DAI H O C Q U O C GIA HA NO TRUNG TAM THONG TIN THU V!EN J21Z_^I^=

HANOI 2007

BAO CAO TOM T A T D E TAI

1 Ten de tai

Nghien cuu ca sa khoa hoc dieu hanh he thong ho chua thugng nguon song Hong phuc VU phat dien va cap nuoc chdng han ha du

2 Ma so QG 07-20

3 Chu tri de tai: PGS.TS Nguydn Huu Khai

4 Cac can bo tham gia

Tien CO sd phan ti'ch dac diem ddng chay iwivd can va chiic nang ciia he

ihong ho chiia ihuang ngudn song Hong, trong do lap irung vao 2 ho chiia Hda Blnh-Tuyen Quang nghien ciiu ccv sd khoa hoc dteu hanh he ihdng phuc vu phat dien va cap nude chdng han ha du

2) Noi dung nghien cuu

- Phan li'ch dac diem ddng chay miia can he thong song Hdng

- Danh gia thuc trang hoal dong phat dien va cap nude chdng han cua cac

hd chiia ihuang ngudn song Hdng

- NghiC-n ciiu ca sd khoa hoc dieu hanh he thong 2 hd chiia Hoa Blnh Tuyen Quang cho phat dien va cap niuVc chdng han

-De xuiii giai phap nang cao hieu qua van hanh he thong 2 ho chiia cho muc lieu phat dien va cap nude chdng han

6 Ciic ket (|ua dat duoc

/J \ e khoa hoc cong ui^he

- Da |")han lich tlae diem ddng cha\ mda can lie liidng song Hdng chu Irc^mz

vao nluriii: nam i:an dav

- Danh gia thuc trang boat dong phat dien va cap nude chdng han ciia cac

ho chiia thugng ngudn song Hdng trong thai gian qua nhal la sau khi nhu cau cap nude chdng han trd nen cap thiet

- Uhg dung mo hinh HEC-RESSIM diln loan he thong chua Hoa Tuyen Quang va mo hinh MIKEl 1 diln loan ha luu song Hdng de xac dinh ca sd

Binh-khoa hoc d'\6\x hanh he thong 2 ho chiia

- Tren ca sd cac ket qua phan tich ti'nh loan, de xuat giai phap nang cao hieu

qua van hanh he thong 2 hd chiia cho muc tieu phat dien va cap nude chdng han

2) Ve hdi bdo vd hoi nghi khoa hoc

' Dang 2 bai biio:

+ 1 bai bao tai Tap chi KTTV sd 563 thang 11/2007

+1 bai bao tai Tap chi Khoa hoc DHQGHN s6 1S, tap 25/2009

- Chuan bi dang 1 bai bao

- Tham gia hdi nghi khoa hoc Dai hoc DHKHTN nam 2008

- 2 sinh viCMi nghien cuu khoa hoc

3) Ve dao tqo

-Hd Ira 1 NCS giai doan dfiu, vi sau dd NCS chuy^n di Han Qudc

- 3 khda luan sinh vien

- 1 luan van Cao hoc: chua bao ve

7 Kinh phi thirc hien

- Tdng kinh phi dugc cap : lOO.OOO.OOOd, trong dd:

+ Nam 2008: 50.000.000

-HNam 2009: 50.000.000

- Da sir dung \ a quyei loan day du

Xiic nhan cua ca quan chu tri

(ky ghi id ho ILMI, dong dau)

•HO Hlfu TPl/ONn

SUMMARY REPORT IN ENCJLl SH l.Title: Scientific base of operation of reservoirs system in Red river's upstream

for electric generation and water supply preventing drought in downstream

2 Code: QG 07-20

3 Head of subject: Asso ProL Dr Nguyen Huu Khai

4 Participans: Sc Master Le Thi Hue

Master Student Pham Phuong Chi Bach Vu Thi Huong

Bach Dinh Xuan Truong

5 Aim and Contents

1) Aim

Baseline analysis of low flow characters of Red river system and functions

of reservoiis in Red river's upstream, researching scientific base ot reservoirs system operation for eleelric generation and water supply preventing drought in downstream

2) Contents

- Analysis of low flow characters of Red river system

- Evaluation of real situation oi water supply of reservoirs in upper Red

river for electric generation and preventing drought in downstream

- Research of scientific base of system operation for electric generation and water supply preventing drought in dow nslream

- Pulling solutions of system operation for eleelric generation and water

supply prcNcnling drought in downstream,

6 Results

I) Science and tecnology

- Analysis ol low How characters o\ Red river sxstem special in \ears

preventing drought in dow nsiivam of reservoirs m upper Ked nver

- Use o{ HLC-RLSSIM model to route rc^ervoiis system and MIKI^il to

route ck)wnstream of Red river and from those results was detmed scientilie base

of system operation for electric generation and water supply preventing drought in downstream

- Some solutions of system operation for electric generation and water supply preventing drought in downstream were puted

2) Scientific papers and seminar

- 2 papers were Published:

-f- 1 paper in Hydrometeorologic Journal N" 11/2007

-^1 paper in Journal of science, VNU N" IS Vol 2.V2009 -H 1 paper will publishing

- Participation in seminar of science, HUS in 2008

- 2 students were participanted in seminar of science HUS in 2008

MUC LUC NOI DUNG TILING

MO DAU ; 1

A TONG QUAN CAC CONG TRINH LIEN QUAN T 6 I VAN DE NGHIEN

CUU '

B TINH CAP THIET VA Y NGHIA CUA DE TAI 4

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1.1 DIEU KIEN TUNHIEN 7

1.1.1 Vi tridialy 7

1.1.2 Dac diem dia hinh 8

1.1.3 Dac diem dia chat, thd nhuang 8

1.1.4 Dac diem khi hau 8

1.1.5 Dac diem lop phii thuc vat 9

1.1.6 Dac diem ihuy van va tlnh hinh nghien cixu 10

1.2 TINH HINH KINH T E X A HOI 15

1.2.1 Tinh hinh kinh te xa hoi 15

1.2.2 Quy hoach phat triC-n kinh le-.\a hoi dong bang song Hong den nam

2.1.2 Mot so nguyen nhan gay ra han han nhung nam qua 21

2.2 DIEN BIEN MUC NU6C 21

2.3 DIEN BIEN DONG CHAY 24

2.4 NHAN XET 36

CHU()N(J III: THUC TRANG CAP NUOC PHAT DIEN \ A C HONG

H.AN CUA 2 HO CHL^A H().\ BINH -TUYEN QUANC; ^^

3.1 HE THONG HO CHUA \ A CONG TRiNH C.\P NL'OC HA DU TREN

LUU VyC SONG HONG ^^

3.1.1 He Ihong ho chua 38

3.1.2 Cac cong trinh cap nucic ha du 40

3.2 NHIEM \ i ; CUA HO CHUA HOA BINH \ A J[}\T.\ QUANG 41

3.2.1 Nhicm \u ciia ho chua Hoa Binh \a TuyC-ii Quang 41

3.2.2 Tien do do lii \ii Dong Xuan 44

3.3 THUC iR.\NG C.AP NUOC I'll.AI DIEN \ A CHONG HAN TRONG

NHLNIG NAM G.\N DAY 44

3.3.1 Thuc tiang cap luroc ph;il clicn 44

3.3.2 Sir phoi hop trong cap nuoc phal dicn \a choiig han 46

4.1.2 Phuong phap toi uu hoa 57

4.1.3 Phuong phap mo phong 58

4.2 M O T S O M 6 HiNH MO PHONG VAN HANH HE THONG HO CHUA 60

4.2.1 Mo hinh HEC-5 60

4.2.2 Mo hinh HEC-HMS 64

4.2.3 Mo hinh MIKE 11 64

5.2.4 Mo hinh HEC-RESSIM 67

4.3 CO SO KHOA HOC DIEU HANH HE THONG 2 HO CHUA HOA

BINH VA TUYEN QUANG ^1

4.3.1 Dong vao 2 ho chiia 71

4.3.2 Nhu cau sir dung nuoc 76

4.3.3 Dien loan he thong ho chua bang mo hinh HEC-RESSIM 77

4.3.4 Dien loan ha luu bang mo hinh MIKEl 1 80

4.4 D.ANH G\.\ ANH HUONG VAN HANH CUA HO HO.A BINH V.\

TUYEN QUANG 84

4.4.1 Lira choii kich ban van hanh 84

4.4.2 Ket qua dien loan va phan tich 85

4.5 NHAN XET 104

CHUONC; V: DE XU.AT MOT SO GIAI PH.AP DIEU HANH 2 HO

CHUA HOA BINH-TUYEN QUANG 106

5.1 KHA N A N G G I A T A N G CAP NUOC CUA C.AC HO CHUA 106

5.2 PH.AN CHIA THOl KY DIEU TIET 107

5.3 DE XLiAT QUY TRINH DIEU H.ANH 108

KET l A AN \ A KIEN N(;HI 110

A KET LU.AN 110

B KIEN NGHj 113

lAI LIEU THAM KHAO 114

PHU l.UC 116 PIli; l.UC 4.1: DONG \ A 0 C \ C HO CHUA MUA KIET :()U4-:005 117

Pill' LUC 4.2: X.AN.'iANH RILNCi HO HOA BINH 121

PHI^ LUC 4.3: CAN HANH IIO IIOA BINH VA K AEN Q I A N G KHI

TANG 30"n LLONG X.\ '^2

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Cac ho chua dang duac xay dirng ngay cang nhiem co dang bac thang tren mot nhanh song, c6 dang song song tren nhi^u nhanh hoac ket hop ca hai Nhung m6i ho chua CO chuc nang va bidu do boat dong rieng, c6 tac dong khac nhau tdi ha luu Trong tinh toiin ihiei ke chua ti'nh den hoal dong khai thac d6ng thai ca he thong cho nhieu muc lieu

Tren the giai da c6 nhieu cong trinh nghien cuu su dung va van hanh ho chira Cac phuang phap ti'nh loan ho chua da c6 tij lau, nhung chii yeu dua vao cac phuang phap dan gian nhu duang luy tfch hay phuang iruih can bang nuoc Gan day c6 hang loal mo hinh duoc xay dung nham mo phong va phan ti'ch sau hon phuang thuc boat dong cua ho chiia va lac dong cua chiing doi voi luu \uc Cac phuong phap loi uu hoa cung duac phat trien de c6 the van hanh tot nhal cac ho chua O My cac mo hinh SSARR HEC-HMS mo phe^ng hoal dong ciia ho chiia voi lu each la mot phfin trong su hinh ihanh dong chay ULMT luu \'Ue O Dan Mach c6 mo hinh M I K E l i MIKlvBASIN Cling nghien ciiu cac ihanh phan nhu mo hinh SSA\RR va HEC () Eien Xo cu viec nghien cuu dieu liei ho chua duoc nhieu nha khoa hoe quan lam nhu Krilski-Menkel

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le va Ciic muc lieu riemg biel khong nam irong he thong

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vu tot han viec dieu hanh ho chua

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nhi6u muc dich khac nhau Dien hinh nhal la he thong h6 chiia lien he thong song Hong gom cac ho chua Hoa Binh San La Tuyen Quang Thac Ba va tuang lai la Lai

Chau Cac ho chua nay lam nhiem vu chi'nh la cM lu vao mCia lu sau do la phat dien

cung cap nuac mua can ngoai ra con phuc vu giao thong, du lich nuoi trong thuy san

Kinh nghiem van hanh ho chiia Hoa Binh d6 dieu tiet lil trong cac nam qua cho thav IK) da gop phan giij' duoc muc nuac Ha Noi khong \ua[ qua 13.()m bao dam an

loan cho Ha Noi Nhieu cong trinh nghien cuu ve van hanh ho chiia dieu liel lu da dugc lien hanh nhu quy trinh van hanh ho chiia Hoa Binh cua Ban Chi dao phong chong lut bao TVV (1997) |11 Quyei dinh 80/2007/QD-TTg cua Thu tuang Chinh phu ban hanh

"Quy trinh van hanh lien ho chiia thuy dien Hoa Bhih Tuyen Quang Thac Ba trong mua 111 hang nam ban hanh nam 2()()7"(2| Ngoai ra con mot loal cac nghien ciiu khac

\'6 van hanh ho chiia Hoa Binh va he ihong ho chiia Iren cae luu vuc cua Viet nam

Cong ty lu van Dien I (1991) da nghien ciiu viec kel hap phal dien chong iu ha du va khai thac long hop h6 chiia Hoa Binh Vien Quy hoach \a Quan ly niuie f 1991) cung

nghiL'ii ciiu \i\p qu\' Irinh van hanh ho chiia Hoa Binh phong 111 \a phal dien NguytMi

Van Tirong (1996) nghien ciiu phuong phap dieu hanh ho chiia Hoa Binli chong lu hang nam voi vice xay dung tap ham vao bang phuong phap Monte-Carlo Trmh Quang Hoa (1997) xay dung cong nghe nhan dang 10 Ihuang nguon song Hong phuc vu dieu hanh

ho chiia Hoa Binh chong lu ha du Vien Quy hoach thuy loi va Cong ly Tu \an Dien 1 (2(){)()) da nghien ciiu hieu ich chong 111 \a cap niKie ha du cua cong irinh ho chiia Dai Thi (nay la Tuyen Quang) lien song Gam Hoang Minh TuyCMi | i 1] da phan tich danh giii vai iio cua mot so ho chiia Ihuang nguon song Hong eho phong chong 111 ha du Lam Hung Son 110] nghien eiiu ca sO dieu hanh he ihong ho eluia Uiii \Lie song Hong

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[13] da nghien ciiu co so khoa hoc va thi.rc uin dieu hanh cap nude mua can cho d6ng

bang song H6ng Nguyen Tuan Anh [9] nghien ciiu xay dung quy trinh van hanh ho chiia bac thang song Da-song Lo cho bai loan da muc lieu, trong do chii trong phong, chong lu va To Trung Nghia (2007-2009) nghien ciiu xay dung quy trinh van hanh h6 chiia bac thang song Da-song L6 dieu tiei nuac cho mi^ia kho ha du song Hong-Thai Binh Nguyen Lan Chau (2008-2009) nghien cuu danh gia tac dong ciia he thong ho chiia tren song Da, Lo den dong chay mija can ha luu song Hong va de xuat giai phap dam bcio nguon nuac cho ha du

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ra cho dong bang ha du Mot so nghien ciiu da di sau xay dung cong nghe du bao dong vao ho chiia han ngan va vi^i'a nhu Nguyen Viet Thi 114| du bao dong cha>' 5 ngiiy den

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eiiu ban dau nhung chua da\ du ve miic dd thieu nude nuia can va van hanh khai thac

hd eluia bao dam Igi feb cua cac ben lien quan

Vi vay mdi de tai ve vice dieu hanh he thdng hd cbiia thuong ngudn sdng Hdng {Irirdc mat la 2 hd chiia Hda Binh-Tuyen Quang) cho muc lieu phal dien va cap nude chdng han ha du la rai cap thiei

Nhu'ng van de neu tren can dugc lam sang to Can danh gia diing tinh hinh thuy

van dien bien muc nude va iuu lugng he thdng sdng Hdng ivong nhilng nam gan day

Ddng thai danh giii thuc trang phal dien v a cap nude cho ha luu trong dd cd chdng ban

then ra nhu the nao ed gi man ihiuin can giai quv el lu do lien hanh nghien ciiu ca sd

khoa hoc va de xuai cac giai phap eho vice dieu hanh he thdng hd ehiia ihiiong luu sdng Hdng irude tien la 2 hd Hoa Binh va Tuven (Juang, dam bao 2 muc lieu phat dien va cap IUKVC chdng han ha du

Nhu vav y nghia khoa hoe cua de tai la o J i c \ac dmh co so khoa hoc cho viec then hanh 2 ho eluia Hoa Btnh va T'uven (^)uang dc dam bao 2 muc lieu phat dien va cap iui\'>c chong han ha du Tu do de xuat cac giai i"ihap d\eu hanh hop Iv de d<\[ muc tieu tren ^ nghia thuc tien la a cho nluliu: co so" khoA hoe va giai phap de xuat sc \idp phan

giup cho vice dieu hanh 2 ho chua (va sau nav la ihcm c;ic ho chiia khac) thit hieu qua

cao, giai quyet thoa dang mau thuan g\Ud 2 muc tieu phal dien va chdng ban dang la

van de thai sir hien nay tren luu vuc song Hdng

Do yeu cau va kinh phi de tai chi gidi han d van de nghien ciiu co sd khoa hoc

dieu hanh 2 ho chiia Hoa Binh va Tuyen Quang vdi 2 muc lieu la phat dien va chdng ban Va trong chdng ban chi lay mgl tieu chuan la muc nude Ha Noi dugc dam bao d miic Idn han hoac bang 2.30-2,50m nghia la mang sdng di^n loan chi tinh den Ha Noi, khong linh xa han ve dudi ha luu De tai cung khong dat ra muc lieu dam bao giao thdng, mdi irudng cung nhu cac nhu cau khac

CHUONGI DI^U K I | ; N TlTNHlfiN VA XA H O I L U U V U C S 6 N G H 6 N G

l L D E U KIEN Tl/NHIEN [11, 13]

1.1.1 VjtH dia ly

He th6ng s6ng H6ng co t6ng dien tich luu vuc 1^ 155.000 km^, trong do 53% dien tich luu vuc (khoang 82.700km^) ntoi 6 nude ngoai (Trung Qu6c, Lao), c6n lai 47%

dien tich luu vuc (khoang72.300km^) nkn trong nude, Ik he thdng s6ng Idfn nh^t mi6n

Bac nudfc ta Luu vuc sdng H6ng nam trong pham vi ttf 20^00' de'n 25*^30' vT Bac va 100**00' deh 106^07' kinh Ddng, phia Bdc giap luu vuc sdng Trucmg Giang, phia Ddng gi^p luu vuc he thdng sdng Thdi Binh va vinh Bac Bd, phia Tay va phia Nam gidp liru vuc sdng Mekdng va sdng Ma (hinh 1.1)

' i T rni

Hinh 1.1: B^n do he thong Song Hong (Phin Viet nam) Phdn luu vuc he thdng sdng Hdng thudc Viet Nam trai dai tren dia ban cac tinh va thanh phd: Lai Chau, Son La, Hoa Binh, Ha Giang, Tuyen Quang, Cao Bang, Bac Can,

Thii Nguyen, Phii Tho, Vinh Phuc, Hk Tay, Ha Ndi, Hai Duong, Hung Yen, Thai Binh,

HaNamvaNinhBinh

L1.2 Dac diem dia hinh

Tren luu vuc he thdng sdng Hdng dia hinh phiin Idn la ddi niii chia eat manh, cd hudng doc chung liJrTay Bac xudng Ddng Nam Phia Tay cd day niii Vd Luang cao tren 2500m, phan each luu vuc he thdng song Mekdng va luu vuc sdng Hdng Trong luu vuc

cd day Hoang lien San cd dinh Phanxipang cao nhat nude ta (3143m) phan chia luu vuc sdng Da va luu vuc sdng Thao Liru vuc sdng Hdng cd tdi 70Cf dien tich d do cao

tren ^OOm va khoang 47% dien lich luu vuc a do cao tren 1000m Do cao binh quan luu

vuc cd 1090m Do chii yeu la dia hinh ddi niii nen do ddc luu vuc kha Idn binh quan

dat lii \5% den 35% Mgl sd luu vuc sdng nhu Ngdi Thia dat tdi 42%, Sudi Sap 46,6%

Ddng bang sdng Hdng duac ke tii Viet Tri cbicm ban 7% dien lich loan luu vuc, thap va luang ddi bang phang, do cao trung binh khoang 25m Doc theo cac sdng d vung ddng bang d6u cd de kien cd lam cho ddng bang bi chia cat thanh cac d tuang ddi doc lap Vung ciia sdng ven bien cd nhieu con cat va bai phii sa

1.1.3 Dac diem dia chat, tho nhudng

Tren liru vuc sdng Hdng cd nhieu he thdng diit gay Idn nhu he thdng sdng Hdng, sdng Ld, Phanxipan sdng Da San La phal trien theo hudng Tay Bac-Ddng Nam a

sdng Thao cd su'dn rai dd khe sau dugc can tao bai da ket tinh cd hoa cuang xen ke c6

nhung be mat bang phang, cae cao nguyen da vdi Xaphin San L Mge Chau Nham thach d day bi phong boa bde mdn diT ddi Phfa Ddng sdng thao la khdi vdm sdng Cha\, nhieu noi la da vdi dung diing nhieu hang ddng sdng siidi ngain

Dai irong luu vuc he thdng sdng Hdng dugc phal irien tren cac loai da me khac nhau Trong luu vuc ciia he thdng sdng cd nhilng loai dai chfnh nhu sau: dai granit phat trien ircn cac loai da: granit sa thach cudi kei da ket phien thach set phien thach inisa phien sa, da vdi phii sa cd vdi cac mau sac khac nhau: vang nhat \ang dd, dd

vang nau do dai mini tren niii cao dai da vdi dal bdi tu dai phu sa sdng sudi dai cat

ven bien va dai lay thul

\'iing ddng bang ha luu sdng Hdng la vung bdi tu day tram tich De tam cd do day Iren lOOOm Ngoai ra con cd mdt sd viing dong bang nho thudc viing nui cao va cao ngu>en la ket qua cua cac qua trinh tram tich va eae san pham phmig htia lu vung ddi mil dua xudng

LI.4 Dac diem khi hau

Luu \ue he thong s(Mig Hong co khi hau nhiei doi ^K) niiia ndng va am Luang

mua hang nam kha [ihong phu nhung phan bo khong deu theo khdn^ gian va ihoi gian

Che do mua trong nam phan hda sau sac theo miia: mdt nam binh thanh hai miia mua va khd rat ro leL Mua mua thudng chi keo dai 5 thang tu thang V den thang IX,

cd lugng mua chiem tdi 75 - 85% tdng lugng mua nam Mi:ia khd keo dai tdi 7 thang nhung cd lugng mua chi chiem 15 - 25% tdng lugng mua nam

Sir phan bd lugng mua tren luu vuc phu thugc rai nhieu vao dia hinh va su sap xep cac day niii Nhung noi dia hinh cao nam d phia ddn gid mang aim thudng mua rat nhieu va tao thanh cac lam mua Bac Quang Mudng Te, Hoang Lien San Vung niii cao thudc day Hoang Lien San, Tay Con LTnh va vung niii Ba Vi - Tam Dao cd lugng mua tii 2400mm/nam den 2800mm/nam Dac biel tam mua Bac Quang ed nam dat den 5499mm Nhung viing khuai sau nhung day niii chAn gid nhu thung lung Yen Chau, cao nguyen San La Idng chao Nghia Ld, vung niii thuXTfng ngudn sdng Gam cd lugng mua nhd chi khoang 1200mm/nam den 1600mm/nam Viing ddng bang cd lugng mua trung binh 1700mm/nam

Lugng mua bien doi qua cac nam trong thai ki nhieu nam khong Idn: lugng mua ciia nam mua nhieu ehi Idn gap 2 - 3 lan lugng mua ciia nam mua it

Nbiel do khong khi trung binh tren luu vuc thay doi tu 15'C (phan Trung Qudc) den 24"C (phan Viet Nam) Lugng bde hai hang nam tren luu vuc khong Idn va bien ddi

ft theo khong gian Lugng bde hoi kha nang do bang dng Piche thay ddi tir 600mm den

1000mm

1.1.5 Dac diem lop phii thuc vat

Trude nhung nam 80 lap phu rung ciia he thdng sdng Hdng edn kha ty le phii

ri^Uig cua mot sd luu vuc sdng vi^ia va nhd eiia sdng Da tu 30 den 55'^/( con ciia sdng

Thao ti^r 50 den 65*^^ va ciia sdng Ld tu 45 den 92^'^ (bang 1.1)

Bang 1.1 Ty le che p h u rifng 6 mot so luu vuc song vira va nho t r o n g luu vUc he t h o n g

song Hong nam 1980

"Phd"Ditv Nauii Nizdi S;io

! Ten tram 1

" ' " N i i n i Mii^";

Sudi Sdj) ,

Thac Vai Bai Sane Thac Mdc

Ta Thane

Thanh Son (Juang Cu

Ba Be Neoi Sao

'"40.^

521

\?2i)

I 19(1 TU'O """

12 Ld

13 Ld

Nghia Dd j Nghia Dd 138 90

Ngdi Quang ! Trac Hoc 665 90 I

Nhung den trudc nam 1990, lap phii thuc vat tren luu vuc chu yeu la riing da bi tan pha nang Theo tai lieu ciia Vien Dieu Ira Quy hoach rung, ly le riing phong hd tren thugng ngudn sdng Thao Da va Ld chi con khoang tii" 8 den 27% it ban nhieu so vdi tieu cbuiin do che phu rung dau ngudn phong hd an loan quy dinh ciia FAO (45%) Thugng ngudn sdng Thao (phan Viet Nam) la nai ty le rung con ft nhai chi lij 8,5 den 15% (bang 1.2) Day la mdt trong nhung nguyen nhan chfnh lam tang ddng chay biin cat tren thugng ngudn cac sdng Da Thao Ld trong nhung nam tir 1986 den nay Sir tang dicn tfch cac viing dai trdng ddi trgc da khien dai bi xdi mdn nghiem ligng lam

tang luong biin cat trong sdng vao mua mua lu gay hien iuang bdi lap long sdng d ha

luu anh hudng nghiem trong den viec tieu thoat lu va gay trd ngai cho giao thdng thiiy

Bang 1.2 Hien trang dien tich rirng nam 1990 cua cac tinh thucJng va trung

luu vuc he thong song Hong

1.1.6 Dac diem thuy van va tinh hinh nghien ciiu

a Mang iuoi song sudi

Mang ludi sdng sudi trong he thdng sdng Hdng phat trien khong ddng deu vdi mat

do hidi song tu 0.25 den 0 *Skm/km' o^ nhilng cao nguyen da vdi khd han (cao nguyen

Son La - Moc Chau Ddng Van ) den hon L55km/knr o nhilng noi mua nhieu dia

hinh chia cat manh

He thdng sdng Hdng do ba sdng: Thao Da va Lo hop thanh

Song Tha(> duoc eoi la dong chinh cua song Hdng bat nguon tu hd Dai Lv d dd

cao gan 2000 m tren tlinh Nguv Son thuoc iinh \'an Nam - Tiling (^)uoc chav iheo

lun'ing fav Bac - Dong Nam qua imh \'an Nam roi do va<» nuoc ta tai \un\i bien gidi

\'iet - lulling lluige hiiven Bai Xal tinh Lao Cai tiep luc chav qua Liio Cai, ^'en Bai Fia

Ndi, Hung ^'en loi do ra vmh Bac Bo tai cua F^ja Lai Phan thiioug liru cua ^om: Hdng

nam trong lanh thd Trung Qudc dugc ggi la sdng Nguyen, doan trung luu tu nai chay vao nude ta (phd Lu) den Viet Tri dugc ggi la sdng Thao va lij" Viet Tri den Ba Lat dugc ggi la song Hdng Tu ngudn den ciia sdng Ba Lat sdng Hong dai 1126 km, trong dd

556 km chay trong lanh thd nude ta

6 ha luu sdng Hdng cd mgl sd phan luu nhu cac sdng Day, Duong Luge, Tra Ly,

Dao va Ninh Ca Sdng Duong va sdng Luge chay vao sdng Thai Binh tai phfa dudi Pha Lai va Quy Cao sdng Dao chay vao sdng Day, sdng Tra Ly chay ra cua Tra Ly va sdng Ninh Co chay ra cira Lach Giang

Sdng Day vd'n la con sdng tu nhien cd cira Hat Mdn dua nude Ur sdng Hdng chay vao sdng Day Ti^r sau khi dap Day dugc xay dung (vao nam 1937) cua sdng Hat Mdn

hi bdi lap Do dd sdng Day da trd thanh con sdng lieu nude tu nhien cua luu vuc sdng

Day, chi khi lu sdng Hdng dac biel Idn, de dam bao an loan cho ibii dd Ha Ndi va ddng bang sdng Hdng mdi phan lu lir sdng Hdng vao sdng Day Ngoai cua Ba Lat nude sdng Hdng edn chay qua ciic cira Tra Ly, Lach Giang va mdt sd ciia ciia sdng Thai Binh Ngoai ra cac sdng Ca Ld Ngil Huyen Khe Irude day cung la phan luu sdng Hdng

d phia bd irai nhung nay hai ciia sdng nay da bi bdi lap nen chi con la sdng tieu nude cho vuiig Vinh Phiic va Bac Ninh

Song Da bat ngudn Ur tinh Van Nam Trung Qudc Phan thugng luu nam trong lanh thd Tiling Qudc dugc goi la sdng Ly Tic*n Ddng chfnh cua sdng Da chay vao nude ta tai xa Ka Long huyen Mudng Te tinh Lai Chau Ngoai ra sdng Nam Na - mot nhanh cua song Da cung tu Trung Qudc chay vao nude la tai Pa Nam Cum huyen Phong Tho linh Lai Chau Ddng chfnh sdng Da lai chay qua thi tran Mudng Te cac thi xa Lai Chiiu Son La va Hda Binh rdi dd vao sdng Thao tai Trung Ha Tir ngudn den Trung Ha, sdng Da dai 1010km Dien tfch luu vuc 52900knr trong dd phan nam Irong lanh tho nude ta dai 570km va dien tfch luu vuc 2660km" Mdt sd sdng nhanh tuang ddi Idn ciia

sdng Dh nam trong lanh ibcS nude ta la Nam Pd (F = 22S0knr) Nam Na fp - 6S60km'),

Nam Miic (F - 2930knr) Nam Mu (I- = 34(K)km-) Nam Bii (1- = I41()knr') Nam Sap ( F - 11 10km-)

Song Ld la nhanh phia Ddng cua sdng Hdng \a cilng bat nguon tu tmh Van Nam ITung (Jude Phan ihiiong luu nam trong lanh tho Trung C^udc duoc goi la sdng Ban Long Dong chinh sdng Ld chay vao lanh thd nimc la tai Thanh Thuv roi chav qua thi

xa Ha (iiang Tuyen (Juang do vao ^ong Thao lai X'lel TrL Song Cam \a song Chav la

hai nhanh Ion nhat cua song Lo Song Cam la nhanh phia hen tiai cung bat luiudn tii tmh \ an Nam Trung (^iidc roi chay vao nirov, la lai phfa thuong luu ihi Iran Bao Lac

tinh Cao Bang Sdng Gam chay vao sdng Ld tai phia thugng luu thi xa Tuyen Quang

Sdng Gam dai 297km dien tfch luu vuc 17200km-, trong dd phan lanh tho nuac la dai

217km dien tfch luu vuc 9780km- Sdng Chay bat nguon tii sudn phfa Tay Bac day Tay Con LTnh thudc huyen Hoang Su Phi tinh Ha Giang chay theo hudng Tay Bac - Ddng Nam den phfa dudi Si-ma-cai huyen Bac Ha tinh Lao Cai thi chuyen hudng Ddng Bac -Tay Nam chay qua Bao Nhai Bao Yen rdi do vao ho chiia Thac Ba Sau dd phan ha luu sdng Chay dd vao sdng Ld tai Doan Hiing Sdng Chay dai 319km dien tieh luu vuc 6500km', trong dd cd 1920km' nam trong lanh thd Trung Qudc Ngoai hai sdng nhanh ndi tren, sdng Ld edn cd mdt sd sdng nhanh tuang ddi Idn khac nhu cac sdng: Mien (F

= 1930km-), Con (F = 1370km-), Phd Day (F = 1610km-)

Tdng dien tfch luu vuc ciia he thdng sdng Hdng khoang 155000km" trong dd 72700km" (45.9% dien ifch loan he thdng) nam trong lanh thd Vict Nam Dien tfch luu

vuc sdng Hdng linh deii San Tay khoang !43700km- irong dd sdng Da chiem 36%-,

sdng Thao chiem 37,5% va sdng Ld chiem 26.5% Den San Tay sdng Hdng cd 615 sdng nhanh cac loai cd chieu dai tii 10km lid len trong dd cd 57 sdng nhanh cao I, 195 sdng nhanh cap 2 245 sdng nhanh cap 3 97 sdng nhanh cap 4 18 sdng nhanh cap 5 va

2 sdng nhanh cap 6

Song I long la sdng Idn nhat d Bac Bd Idn lhu hai a nude ta chi sau sdng Mekdng

h Tinh hinh nghien cuu thiiy van

Vice quan trac thiiy van da dugc lien hanh tai mgl sd diem tren sdng Da nhu Hda Binh (tu 1902) Lai Chau (tu 1927) tren sdng Thao nhu Yen Bai Tuyen Quang Phu Thg tren sdng Ld nhu Ghenh Ga Vu Quang Tuy nhicMi trude day chi tap trung cjuan trac muc nude, luu lugng nude khong dugc quan trac hen tuc va thudng chi duac tien hanh irong giai doan mua lu

Sau nam 1956, viec quan trac lien luc cho cae he ihdng cae veu id thiiy van chfnh nhu muc nude, luu luang nude, bun cat nhiet dd nude diroe lien hanh o mot sd vi trf quan trong tren sdng Da nhu Hda Binh, Ta Bu Lai Chau tren song Thao nhu Yen Bai Plui Tho tren sdng Ld nhu Ghenh Ga Vu (^uang va tren sdng Hdng nhu Son Tay Ha Ndi

Phia thuong luu tren lanh thd Trung (^)udc lu Nau nam 1949 da hinh thanh 24 tram

khi tuong tren cae song Tren song Nguven (dau ngudn sdng lloiuz) eo 15 tram: iren

song Ly lien (tiau ngudn sdng Da) co 5 tram va tren song Ban Long (dau Uiiuon sdmi

Lo) CO 4 tram Phan Idn khong eo tpian trac lien IUL 2 liam eo chudi quan trac 27-37

luim I tram 19 nam 5 tram 5-N nam,

Cdng trinh thiiy dien Hda Blnh bat dau xay dung tu nam 1979 va hoan thanh vao thang XII nam 1994 Ngay trong giai doan xay dung, che do thiiy van cua sdng Da da

cd nhiing thay doi nhat dinh Tuy nhien nhUng thay ddi id ret dugc ghi nhan ke {\x nam

1988, khi ho tfch nude de chay id may sd 1 Do vi tri tram thiiy van Hda Binh d qua gan dap chfnh, che do ddng chay chiu anh hudng true tiep tir cdng trinh, khong dam bao cho cdng tac do dac, vi the tram chuyen sang bd phai va liii ve phfa ba luu khoang 4,5

km, mang ten mdi la Ben Nggc

Xuat phat tu tinh hinh thuc te nhu vay loan bd sd lieu thiiy van phan chia thanh hai giai doan dac trung la:

+ Thai ky trudc khi cd hd (trudc 1987), trong dd thai ky 1979 - 1987 anh hudng ciia hd coi nhu khong dang ke

+ Thai ky sau khi cd hd (tu 1988 den nay)

c Dac diem thuy van

' Don^ chay nam

Ddng chay tren sdng Hdng dugc hinh thanh tir mua va kha ddi dao Tdng lugng trung binh nhitBu nam qua San Tay khoang 118 ty m \ tuang ung vdi luu lugng 3743m Vs ddng chay d dia phan Viet nam phong phii ban nhieu phan tren lanh thd Trung Qudc Nhin chung lugng nude tren luu vuc bien ddi kha Idn va phu ihudc lii'ng sdng, nam nhiCui nude gap 1,7 -2.0 lan (bang 1.3)

Bang 1.3: Bien dong iUdng nude trung binh nam tai mot so tram {nguon: Vien QHTL)

Song Ld (Phu Ninh)

Lugng nude nam (lv Trung binh Ldn nhai 117.9 1 160.5 55,4 68.7 24.2 41.0 32.7 46.0

' m') Nho nhal 93.0 39.7 ^ 18.4

23.6

Ty sd max/mi n 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.9

trong 3 nhanh ldn ciia sdng Hdng ihi sdng Da cd luong ddng cha\ ldn nhai, chiem khoang 42% sdng Thao cd luong ddng chay nho nhai ehiein 19'^, edn sdng Ld chiem

25A'<

-Bien doi cua ddng chav nam khong nhicu he so bien ddi Cv a eae song ldn tu

O.K>-0.23 eon cac luu vuc nho la 0.30-0.50

- IJoiie clkjy iron'' inhn

Theo ket qua tfnh loan ciia [13] lugng nude phan sang sdng Duong chiem 28-30%

vao mua lu va 25-25,2% vao miia kiet ty le nay tang len til sau nam 1985

- Dong chay mua hi

Mua lu tren sdng Hdng tir thang VI-X ddi khi lu xay ra vao thang XI 0 Tay bde

lu cd the sdm ban LQ sdng Hong cd nhieu nggn, len nhanh va xudng nhanh bien doi muc nude thudng tii 5-8m, tdi da cd khi tdi 8-14 m Thang VIII thudng cd lu ldn (45%)

va ID Idn nhai nam nhu 8/1945 8/1969 8/1971 Thai gian lu len thudng keo dai 3-5 ngay, nhung Iran lu ldn thudng la sir kei hgp ciia 3-4 con lu nen keo dai 15-20 ngay nhu

lu thiing 8/1969, 8/1971 Cudng suai lu len kha Idn dat 5-7m/ngay d thugng luu sdng Da-Ld 2-3 m/ngay d trung luu va 0,5-1.5m/ngay d ddng bang Trong miia hi khi mdt sdng cd 111 thi cae sdng kia cung cd hi song thudng khac vc' quy md va thai gian xuai hien dinh Trong chudi sd lieu do dac 90 nam ehua xuai hien lu ldn nhai tren ca 3 nhanh sdng

Muc nude tran bd thudng la luu lugng ting vdi tan suai 50-60% Phan ldn cac sdng vung trung vii ha du cd he thdng de dieu hoan chinh Toan bd de ke ca de bdi va ndi dong dai 50(X)km Cao trinh de dam bao khdng Iran vdi miic 96-99.5% ddi vdi de chfnh, ling vdi cao trinh I 3.30m lai Ha Ndi

- I)()n<^ chiiy mua kiet

Ddng chay kiet cd lien quan chat che den van hanh cap nude mua kiet Miia kiet lien luu vuc thudng keo dai 7 thang, tir ihang XI-V Tir thang X-Xl dong chay giam nhanh iir thang Xll-IV ddng chay ft bic'ii ddng cudi thang IV dau thang V bat dau cd mua nen ddng chay lai tang, chfnh thuc mua kiet chi li^r thang XI1-1V va day la ihdi ky Clin dugc quan lam

Trong cac thang nuid kiet van ed luang mua chiem khoang 20-25% lugng mua

nam nhung lap Irung vao 3 thang XL IV va V Cae thang XlLIll mua nho, nhai la 2 thang XII va 1 ihdi tiei khd hanh thang II va III chi eo mua phiin Nhu vav tij- ihang Xll-lll ddng eha> trong sdng sudi chu >eu do nude ngam va nude dieu tiei tir hd ehua

cung cap Thang eo luong tidng ehav' nho nhai thudng roi vao thang III Modun done eha> kiet vimg chau thd sdng Hdng la 4.9 1/sknr Dong chav kiet irung binh dal a Bac

bo tlat khoang I 200m 7^- trong lanh tho tlat SI I m / s

- / ) / ' / / c (7/(/\' t (// hfin

Lirong bun cat cua he thong song rai hin tdng luong bun cat nam tai Son Tav la

I 14-1 15.1(1' uin oap 5 lan song.Mekong Song f)a lai I loa Hinh tkit (^0.410' lan ehicm

^ 3 ^ : song thao uu Yen Bin dat 37.6.10' tan chiem khoanLi }2^'^ con son^ Lo lai Vu

14

quang dat 8,3.10^' ta'n, chiem 7,3% Do due Idn nhai miia lu cd the dat tren lOkg/m' (thugng nguon sdng Da), 6kg/m' tren sdng Thao va sdng Ld nhung mua can lai rai nhd, chi la 4kg/m\

Biin cat sdng Hong cd dudng kfnh hat phan bd ddu tir set den cat min Phu sa sdng Hdng ndi chung rat mau ma, chiia nhieu vdi va baza nen la ngudn phan bdn rai tot

- Chat luong nirr'/c

Ngudn nude tren luu vuc chiu tac ddng manh me cua con ngudi Tuy nbien chat lugng nude mdt sd khu vuc midn nui chua bi anh hudng nhieu ndi chung edn kha tot,

cd the chgn lam ngudn cung cap cho tat ca cac nganh dimg nude, ke ca sinh boat Theo 113] mdt sd chi lieu chat lugng nude nhu sau:

Do pH tir 6.8-7.4; Ham luang sal ft bien ddi khoang 0,lmg/l; Lugng SiO tu"

I2.m8-21.4mg/l: Canxi iu 1.24-2.0mg/l; Mg bien ddi ft lir 0,44-0,60mg/l

Do man ngoai bi^n hau nhu on dinh, tai Bach Long Vy miia can la 33"/,„| con miia lii la 32'yno Khu vuc ven bd do man bien doi theo mua, miia can do man thudng la 29-33'7Hn va ft bien ddi edn miia lu bien ddi nhieu ban theo dmh va chan trieu Do man ldn nhai trong sdng thudng xay ra vao Ihang LII va III trong dd xay ra vao thang III chiem idi 64*"^ Sau khi hd Hoa Binh boat ddng van de xam nhap man duac cai thien, tuy nhien chua du sd lieu de kel luan chfnh xac Sau khi hd Scm La di vao boat ddng linh hinh man d ha du se dugc cai thien Idt ban niia Tuy nhien cdng vice than chua rira man, khai hoang laii bien lam eho nhu cau nude ngot ngay cang Uing

1.2 TINH HINH KINH TL XA HOI

1.2.1 Tmh hinh kinh te xa hdi [11 13]

a Ddn so

Tfnh den nam 1999 theo nien giam thdng ke cac tmh thi dan sd trong liru vuc sdng Hdng la 2.^.776.000 ngudi, chiem 29.73^V dan sd ca nude Trong dd ndng dan chiem idi 10.9 trieu ngirdi Cac tinh ddng bang ly le tang dan sd giam dan tuy nhien d

trung du va mien niii ly le van kha cao Mire tang trung binh nam 1999 la I.5''f Dan cu tap trung a eae tinh ddng bang, nhu Ha Noi la 2952 ngudi/knr Hai Duong 955 ngudi/knr con a cae tmh mien luii mat do ihap, o Son La la 6S ngudi/knr, va Lai Chau

la 27 iigiidi/knr (,)ua trinh do thi hoa dien ra manh me do vav mat do ddn so edn thay

doi Irong thdi gian idi

Dan cu trong khu vuc la nguon luc clu> phat ii icn kmh le-xa hoi

h \ an hoa i^ido due vd v te

Trinh do dan trf ndi chung chua cao, sd ngudi khdng biei doc biei viei xap xi sd

ngudi lot nghiep PTTH (khoang 7-8% sd dan) Cac dieu kien van hoa thdng tin phat

irien manh d thanh phd dd thi, cac linh dong bang, edn d ndng ihdn va nhai la viing

niii, rai ban che

Mang ludi y te phat triein tir tinh, huyen den xa Tuyen huyen dieu tri dugc hau hei

cac benh thdng thudng, tuyen tinh di^u tri dugc cac benh ciia tuyen 2 va 3 Nhin chung

Nha nude da dau tu va quan lam phat trien cac ca sd phdng chdng chua benh Tuy

nhien d viing sau vimg xa con rai khd khan, phuong lien xir ly ve sinh ngudn nude edn

thap

c Cac ngdnh kinh te sii dung nuoc

- Coni^ nghiep

Cdng nghiep tap trung chu yeu lai cac linh ddng bang va trung du Hien nay nganh

cdng nghiep dang dugc dau tu phat trien manh nhieu khu cdng nghiep che xuai binh

thanh nhu khu cdng nghiep Ndi Bai-Sdc San, khu lien doanh Y.AMAHA khu che xuat

Vinh Yen v.v Trong vdng 10 nam qua idc do tang trudng binh quan la 10-12%/nam

Cdng nghiep Trung uang chii yeu phat trien tai cac tmh ddng bang va trung du, con d

mien niti chii yeu la cdng nghiep dia phutmg nho be vdi khoang HiV'.f dodng nghiep cd

vdn dudi 3 ly ddng Cac nganh cdng nghiep dang phal trien la dien xi mang ihep, ca

khf lap rap old, xe may khai thac mot sd khoang san chinh nhu llian sat ihiec vat lieu

xiiy dung Tuy nhien cac khu cdng nghiep chua thu hiit dugc cac nha dau tu chi mdi

dal khoang 10-20% dien tfch mat bang (bang 1.4)

Sir dung nude cho cdng nghiep cung rat khac nhau tren tirng viing Ddi vdi liai vuc

sdng Da nude diing cua cac cdng trinh Nha nude la 38.6 trieu m' nude dung dugc quay

vong sir dung lai la 0,44 trieu m \ lugng nude thai cdng nghiep khdng duoc xu ly la 0,45

trieu m \ Ddi vdi luu vuc sdng Thao nude diing cua eae cdng trinh Nha nude la 510.3

irieu m \

Bang 1.4 Tinh hinh san xuat cong nghiep tren dong b^ng song Hong tinh den nam 2003

{nguon: Jong cue Thong ke)

I 1 I Khu vuc ! r(ui»i so Co Si) (1) so eo Cim d i san 1 iioii*;

"^"^67.542

17725^ "

' in.2<S4

P ^^S 67^528"

24.773 14.023 15.182 27.820 19.017 17.864

Ciic loai cay trdng chfnh la liia, ngd khoai lang mi'a dau {uang v.v Cav cdng nghiep

nhu ca phe che cung duac phat trien Nam 1998 ed 48000ha che dat 3.4 tan/ ha bup

luai Cay an qua cung duac trdng a nhiCui nai, nhu vai thieu tai Bac Giang ILii duang

man d Lao Cai, San La

Dien tfch dai rirng chiem khoang 20% dien tfch rirng ca nude, luy nhien dai trdng ddi trgc van nhieu ehiein 35''Y. Riing hi khai thac manh me chai luong su} guim nam

1990 chi con 15% Vdi cac du an trdng rirng do che phu nam 2000 Uing den 30% Tir

dd cao 700 m ed cac kieu riing a nhiet ddi iim thudng xanh nhu de, de lau sdi tir 700

in trd xudng cd kieu riing nhiet ddi lim thudng xanh nhu Inn ngai tram

Chan nudi irau bd tang d mien nui va giam d ddng bang, edn lan tang tren loan luu vuc, dan gia cam pbiil trien manh d moi noi

Thuy san la nganh kinh le quan triMig dap ting 30^( nhu can dam ddng vat cho

tian eu tren luu vuc Nam 1990 dat 101 9.()0()tan kim ngaeh xuai khau dat 205 trieu

US\} TrcMi sdng Da cd khoang 10533.21 ha dien tich mat nude, eho san Imrng ca I 8(JO

tan trong do chu \eii la viing long ho Hoa Binh Liru \ue song Ld cd khoauii 2120 ha

vo-i an lugng 2000 tan Tren luu vuc song Thao ed 15000 ha eho nuoi trdne thuy san

- (ihu) flione van hii llniv

I lien nav iren luu \ue eo gdn 200(1 km duong ihuv di lai diroc ban^ lau LO do mdn

nuoc 1.20 m trong ^'0^ thoi gian cua mot nam Co nhieu cang bicn va noi tlia nlur Hai

Phong Ha NOI Son Tav Nmh Binh Bac Ciang \'iel Tii v.v Niioai ra eon eo nhieu

OAl H O C Q U O C GIA HA NC^

diem giao nhan hang hoa tam thdi Nhin chung viec di lai phu thudc vao do sau luong lach Tren sdng Da hang nam van chuydn 15600 tan hang boa edn luu vuc sdng Ld khoang 1093 tan

- Cap nude cho cong ddng

He thdng cap nude dd thi da dugc chu trgng, tuy nhien chat lugng edn thap that thoat nhieu Viing ndng thdn chi mdi bat dau hien nay chii yeu sir dung nude ho ao, sdng ngdi hoac gieng khoan, nhung thudng bi d nhi^m Dien cap nude con ft, vf du, d thugng iuu chi cd 1/10 sd dan dugc cap nude Cd nhung dii' an mdi nhu lay nude sdng

Da cung cap cho cac vimg dd thi xung quanh Ha Ndi

- Dien ndng

Ngudn dien nang bao gom thiiy va nhiet dien vdi eae nha may;

Thuy dien Hoa Binh cd cdng suai 1920 MW; Thuy dien Thac Ba ed cdng suai 120 MW; Thuy dien Tuyen Quang du kien cd cdng suai 342 MW; Thuy dien San La du kicMi cd cdng suai 2400 MW; Nhiet dien Pha Lai ed cdng suai 440 MW; Nhiet dien

Udng Bf cd cdng suai 105 MW; Nhiet dien Ninh Binh ed cdng suai 100 MW Ngoai ra

edn cd cac tram nhd chay bang than, dau diezen Nhiet dien Pha Lai dang phat trien giai doan 2 them lOOMW He thdng truyen tai dien gom cae dudng day 500 KV 220

KV 210 KV va cac dudng day phan phd'i 35 KV, lOKV va 6 KV Tuy nhien cac dudng day uii dien dam biio chai luang edn cae dudng day phan phdi eo chai lugng kem bao phf nhieu Hien nay vdi su phal irtien ciia kinh te nhu cau dien tang len rai nhieu, rieng ludi tieu Uing manh ehiein khoang 10-15% tdng dien nang

1.2.2 Quy hoach phat trien kinh te-xa hoi dong bang sdng Hong den nam

2010 va 2020[13]

- Dun so : Du bao dan sd den nam 2010 va 2020 iren loan bd luu vuc luong ung la 20.5S6 va 22.567 nghin ngirdi Mat do dan eu trung binh hien la 35 1 ngudi/knr

- Non_'^ nghiep: Ndng nghiep can phal trien de dam bao an nmh luong thuc cho

loan mien Bac Tdng dien lieh dai ndng nghiep viing cd de bao ve linh den 2010 la

871.261 ha trong dd dai trdng liia va ea\ luong thuc la 720.62(S ha: dat rirng 80.275 ha;

dat giao thdng xa>' dung, thuy loi la 273.3S0 ha: dat dura su dung co kha nang chuyen doi la 161.151 halL^j

- /.(//// neliiep' Tren luu v irc can tang cirong trdng rung, tang do phu rirng den 20%

Muc lieu den nam 2010 co do che phu 40S \ ung Tav bac phal tncn rung dac dung [MitMig bd va sail xucil tao he smh thai ben vuiii:

18

- Thuy sdn: Can phat trien nhanh va loan dien khai thac di ddi vdi nudi trdng d ca

3 khu vuc nude nggt-lg va man Nudi ca d ca ho tu nhien va nhan tao den nam 2020

dat 173.000 ha

Dong thdi phai phat trien dich vu, du lich cac ca sd ha tang dugc dau tu va cac dd

thi mdi hinh thanh Tong dau tu binh quan mdi nam la 3007 trieu USD Den nam 2010

dat thu nhap dau ngudi khu vuc dd thi la 1.724 USD va ndng thdn la 367 USD[8]

- Cong nghiep: Sir phat trien cua cdng nghiep theo bao cao "Quy hoach long the

phat tri^nkinh te xa hdi vung dong bang sdng Hdng"[13] chi ra d bang 1.5

Bang 1.5 Tang trudng kinh te tren dong bang song Hong

Nam

2001-2005

2005-2010

% GDP 24.18 26.85

% tang trudng 11.50

11.10 i

Cac linh vuc phat trien gom cdng nghiep che bien, san xuai hang tieu dung, ca

khf che tao dien tii tin bgc Phat trien ciic khu va cum cdng nghiep hien cd va hinh

ihanh cac khu cdng nghiep mdi Ddng Ihdi phat trien lieu lhu cdng nghiep, cdng nghiep

ndng thdn

CHUONG II DI£N BIEN D6N(; CHAY MLA CAN HE THONCI SONC; HONG

2.1.TINH HINH HAN HAN TRONG NHUNG N A N GAN DAY

2.1.1 Tinh hinh

Trong nhung nan gan day cii the la tir nam 2003 den nay da lien tuc xay ra ban ban tren sdng Hdng, muc nude nam sau thap ban nam trudc dat miic thap nhai trong vdng ban 100 nam qua Trong nhieu thang trudc dd lugng mua trung binh qua it,

khdng the nang cao mirc nude sdng Trong khi dd nhu cau sir dung nude cho sinh boat

van hanh nha may dien tudi tieu ciia khu vuc ddng bang Bac bd van khdng ngirng tang cao khien ngudn nude ngay cang can kiet Cd nhieu nganh sir dung nude, nhung cd 3 nganh chii yeu la ndng nghiep, dien lire va giao thdng thuy Cac nganh nay chiu anh hudng ciia han ban nhieu nhai va cung tac ddng den tinh hinh han ban nhieu nhat

-Ndng nghiep /131 : Do muc nude xudng thap, nam 2003 khoang 300.000 trong

tdng sd 500.000 ha liia ddng xuan d ddng bang sdng Hdng bi han nang Nam 2004 ban nang hon va cac bien phap chdng ban dugc trien khai nhung van edn 233.400 ha bi iinh hu(ing

Nam 2005 ban nang ban nua, va hd Lloii Binh da phai xii nude chdng han, dan

den thieu dien nghiem trgng Nam 2006-2008 tinh hinh edn xau hon va muc nude thap nhai nam 2006 la 1.66m (15/1/2006) nam 2007 la l,l2m (23/!I/2l)07) va nam 2008 thap nhai ngay I2/II/2008, dal idi 0.81 in va duy tri nhieu ngay d miic L20in Vdi muc nude ibap nhu vay khdng the bam nude dugc ga\' anh hudng id ret deii san lugng va nang suat lua

- Die}} life: Ngay 24/V/2005 muc nude trong hd Hoa Binh chi edn 78.64m dudi

muc nude chet 1,36m nha may phai van hanh dudi muc nude chei gay nguy hiem cho tuabin Hd Thac Ba eilng ehi edn 45.23in neu xudng thap hon 44.0m ta nha may phai ngimg boat ddng Cae tmh nhu Hai Duong Hai Phdng Nam Dmh phai giam 1/3 dien nang cung cap, rieng Ha Noi dugc uu lien nhung cung phai eat luan phien d 5 huyen

ngoai ibanh De dam bao muc nude d nuie an \ol\n llvn luong dien phal ra trong ngay 25/5/2006 chi edn 3.6 trieu Kw chi dal khoang 7 ^ so \a\ binh thuong [3 4 ."^J

- iiiao ihong iJiux: Tir Plui Tho den Ha Noi nhieu lau chti hang phai neo dau de

dam biio an loan Dac biel ed 2 tloan can nhat la I'lui C1 uuu Ba \'i) va cau Long Bien lai Plui (4iau muc iui\Vc ehi con L80m trong khi do sau can thiei loi ihieu la 2.00m

lai mot so diem nhu khu MIC Trung Kicn (\ inh Phuo giao thong iicn luvcn song liong gan nhir bi te liet |4, 13]

20

2.1.2 Mot so nguyen nhan gay ra han han nhung nam qua

Cd nhieu nguyen nhan gay ra han ban Trudc hei dd la do lugng mua 4 thang

dau nam trong cac nam gan day ludn ludn thieu hut so vdi trung binh nhi^u nam [13]

Nguyen nhan thu' 2 la boat dong cua hd Hoa Binh Trong cac thang II-IV, nha may phai xa xudng ha luu mot luu lugng dam bao khdng nhd ban 680m Vs Tuy nhien

ho khdng xa day thudng xuyen 24/24 gid, va cQng chi xa vdi miic 50()-600mVs, vi vay lugng nude xudng ha luu qua ft muc nude sdng Hdng xudng rai thap Trong thang XII/2005 va I-II/2006, luu lugng xa ciia hd Hoa Binh thudng nhd ban lugng nude den, tham chf cd liic (thudng vao ban dem) lugng xa rat thap, chi khoang 20-50inys Thang XI1/2006-11/2007 lugng xa con thap hon, luu lugng qua nha may ehi khoang ban 5(J0mVs, nhd ban lugng nude den [7] Vi vay tao nen mdt thdi ky dai thieu nude 3 nam

lien luc bi han ban muc nude thap khdng dam bao bom nude phuc vu dd ai Nguyen

nhan nay cd lien quan den boat ddng ciia nganh dien Vi chi quan tam chii yeu den nhu Ciiu dien nen hd chiia Hda Binh chi xa nude qua tuabin de pbiil dien khong chu y den nhu cfiu ciip nude chdng hiin ha luu Nhirng nam giin day dudi su chi diio ciia Chfnh

phu nu(ie hd Hoii Binh dugc Xii nhieu he^n trong thdi ky do ai de chdng han Tuy vay cung chi dugc thdi gian ngan sau do muc nude hii xudng thii'p khdng dap ung nhu Ciiu

Nguyen nhiin thii' 3 hi khdng ed cc^ che id chu'c cung ciip thdng tin ve dich vu ciVp

nude, liim cho vice cii'p nude bi ddng giiy iinh hudng xiiu den ciie boat ddng kinh te Ddng thdi cilng khdng ed bd phan cap nhat tfnh toiin nhu ciiu dimg nude phii hgp vdi su

thay ddi dan deii bi ddng trong dieu hanh

Ben canh dd he ihdng kenh muang diin tirdi ciic cdng trinh Liy nude bi xudng

Ciip, thiii thoiit nude nhieu cilng him tram trgng them linh hinh han biin

F^hiin tfch chi liet di^n bien muc nude vii ddng chiiy nhung niim giin day de lam siing id dieu Uiiy

2.2 DIEN BIEN MUC NUGC

Muc nude tuy ed lien he khii chat che vdi dt)ng chay nhung quan he giua chiing

khong phai la don tri ddng thdi thay ddi qua hang luim Do do muc nude cd nhilng dac diem bien dong rieng Muc nU(Ve eo y nghiii dac biel trong eae hoal ttong giao thdng thuy loi Nv) chi phdi do sau luong kich clu^ tau be qua lai chi phoi dau nuxic vii do cao

dal ma>' bom de boin IUKVC chdng han \'i vay can phan tfch dien bien muc nude mdi ciich rieng biel Muc niixVc can ihiei de c() the dal mav bom chong han la 2,50m, v-i theo

de xuat ihoa hieji giira ngiinh nong nghiep va dien luc gan dav (liiaiu: \lI/20()7) la

2,30m Khi muc nude tai cau Long Bien d mu'c 2.0m thi chi cd nhu'ng lau tai trgng nhd

la chay dugc con lai bi mac can thiet hai kinh te khdng nho

Tren he thdng sdng Hdng thang cd muc nude trung binh ihiip nhai thudng la

thang III, nhung muc nude kiet nhat lai xuat hien tir thang I den thang V, trong dd tap

trung vao cac thang II-IV Muc nude trung binh thang nhd nhiVt (Hthgmin)va kiet nhai

(Hmin) trong chudi sd lieu (tfnh den nam 2006) cua mdt sd tram cho trong biing 2.1

Bang 2.1: Muc nude dac trung cua mot so tram tren song Hong (tinh den nam 2006]

Da

Lo Hong Hdng Dudng

Tram Yen Bai Hoa Binh

Vu Quang Son Tav

Hlhgmin (cm)

2443

1299 90.8

1 111/2006

; 111/2006

Hmin ' (cm)

Thiing, nam : lV/2006

' V/2005

1/2006 ' 111/2006 , 11/2007 : 11/2006

Ty le xuiii hien muc nude nhd nhiit qua cac thiing nhu bang 2.2

Bang 2.2: So lan xuat hien muc nude nho nhai qua cac t h a n g

So kin

9

1 28.07 1 7 33.33

8.77 lOO""

' 15,22 1

43,48 1 : 1^).56 1

!"lT)0

Cd nhilng nam muc nude kiel xuiii hien trong mdt sd thiing, vf du tiii Ha Ndi cd;

- Niim 1981 xuiii hien trong thiing II vii III; niim 1984 xuiii hien thiing III va IV;

niun 1993.xuiii hien trong thiing I va IV; nfim 1997 xuiii hien irong thiing I vii IL

Muc nude kiet cilng ed the xuiii hien nhieu ngav ii^ng thiing vf du tai Ha Ndi

nam 2002 eo muc nireic kiet Li 2,57m xuiil hien 4 Lin trong ihang II; hoac nfim 1999 ed

muc nude kiet 2.00m xuiii hicMi 2 Lin niim 2003 muc nude kiet hi 2-43m xuiii hien lien

trtnig 2 ngiiv 6 va 7 thiing 11

Muc nude kiel xuiit hien qua cae lUim eo do chcnh lech Ion Muc nucic kiel thap

nhal tai Ha Ndi Li L12m xuiii hien vao nam 2()('7 ingav 23/11) Theo so lieu mdi nhai

muc luroc kiet tai Ha Noi xudng den O.Sim mgav 12/II/20OS) va keo dai trong nhieu

ngiiv trong tluing II/200S a muc L20m Muc nuVv kiei c;io nh;it la 3.17 m xuiii hien

nam 1905 (nga_v 4/11) Tai Pha Lai mire iui>)V thap nlui xuat hien luuii 1974 v(n

H=-0.22 m edn muc luiwc kiet cao nhiU da quan tiac la 0.53in xuat hien nam 2()(i"\

C6 nhi^u nam, tai H^ N6i, muc nude trung binh ng^y nho hem 2,50m xu^t hifn nhi^u ngiy, day i^ muc nude thip nh^t duoc quy dinh d^ dam bao bom nu6c tudri cho

vii Ma D6ng xuan titn d6ng bang Bac b6 Bang 2.3 cho bilft s6 ngay co muc nu6c trung

binh nho hon 2,50m va 2,00m tai Hk N6i va nho hon 100m va SOm tai Pha Lai

B^ng 2.3: S6 ngiiy co nude trung binh nho hdn 2,50m va 2,00m tram Ha Noi va Pha Lai

5(12) 1-31/1 31/1-13/3 1/12-21/4

Htb<2,00m

0 4(4) 28/2-13/3 17/2-11/3

Tram Pha Lai Htb<100m

54(1-5) 117(12-5)

150 (12-5) 26(1), 25)2)

Htb<50m

0 10(1-2) 12(1-3) 20(1-3)

Nhu vay c6 th^ th^y rang xu th^ xu^t hien muc nudfc th^p ngay ckng th^p hon va k^o d^i ngay hon, c6 khi ii6n tuc hon 1 thang Cac thang I-IV lai la nhutig thdng rSft c&i

nu6c cho vific d6 ai, lua de nhinh \k \km dong Muc nude th^p dki ngky lam cho viec bom nude chdng han gap rit nhi^u kho khan No cung lam cho man xam nhap sau hon

\ko trong cira sdng, gay hai cho khu vuc sinh thdi nude ngot Ngodi ra cung gay khd

khan cho giao thdng thuy tren doan ha luu cua he thdng, cd nhi6u cdng trinh dan kinh t^ Nhutig ngay ddu nam 2007 va 2008, nhi^u tau, sa lan bi mac can nhi6u ngay,

sinh-tdn tha^t kinh t€ hkng tram trieu d6ng Muc nude xudng T& th^p (H=2,30m) trong ngky

6/IV/2008 lam ndi ro bai gifia sdng Hdng va xudng dudi mdc thip nh^t cua thudc nude

chan c5u Long Bien (hinh 2.1) Tuy nhien, day chua phai la muc nude thSfp nh^t vi ngky

12/0/2008 muc nude con xudng ddn 0,81m

Hinh 2.1: Chan clu Long Bien umg vdi mirc nude H=2.30m ngay 6/4/2008

2.3 DIEN BIEN DONG CHAY

Muc nude xudng thap thi luong dong chay cung thap, anh hudng den viec cung cap nude cho san xuat giao thong va doi sdng

Mua can tren he thdng song Hdng keo dai 7 thang (tii' thang XI den thang V nam

sau), lirong dong chay chiem 20-30% lugng dong chay nam Dong chay miJa can mot

sd song nhanh ciia he thdng chi ra trong bang 2.4

Bang 2.4: Dong chay miia can he thong song Hong (tinh den nam 2006)

Vu Quang Son Tay

"Ha Nof ' Thugng Cat

Qcan (mVs)

^138(V/0'"5P

Qthgmin (mVs)

180 161(IV/06) i 572 90.8(V/05) 1 144

<S60( IV/06) 1 1040 400(11/06) 656 370(111/05) 478

Thang, niim lV/2006 111/2006 1/2006 111/2004 11/2006 111/2006

Tir bang 2.4 cung cd the thay rang dong chay Ihang nhd nhat va dong chay kiet nhal CO xu hudng giam dan trong nhung nam gan day neu xem xel den nam 2007 va

2008 [h\ cd kha nang gia tri con nhd hem nua v] muc nude da xudng thap ban Nhung

do \'\ec chinh bien \a luu liu sd lieu nen lai lieu ddng chav 2 nam nay ehira thu ihap duae

Phan lieh sir xuat hien cua ddng chay thang nho nhal va ddng chay nho nhat nam

cua Uing tram Iren he thdng cho thay su ddng bg luang ck)i cua chung Thang nhd nhat Irong Ciie nam 2003-2006 Iren cac tram Hoa Binh San Tay Ha Noi gan nhu d6ng bg Tai tram Yen Bai luy ed nam lech di mot vai thang nhung thang ddng thdi vdi cac tram lien Cling la thang nhd thu 2 irong nam dd Rieng tram Vu Quang su xuat hien ed ve khac biet trong nam 2006 luu lugng cua thang XII lai nhd ban cac thang dau nam, tuc

la tuang ung \'di mi^ia kiel nam sau Cac tram ha liru nhu Thuong Cat \a Pha Lai cung

CO tinh huih lirong tu Dieu nay chiing lo d ha luu dong cha\ giam siii rat nhanh sau miia lu, gay ban keo dai \'a nghiem trong (bang 2.5)

Dong chay kiet nhal nam xuat hien rai rac trong eae thang tu I-V luy nhien tan Muit xuat hiLMi trong eae thang 3 va 4 nhiOu hon luang tu nhu muc nude

Bang 2.5: Dong chay kiet qua cac nam va thdi gian xuat hien cua c h u n g

\\ \.im (^)thuinMi 'I han: W I so \ lV| ( J i i i i n

656

515

^ 4 0 0 ^ "

' 6/1V : 8/III : 20/11 Tram San Tay

90.6 78.5 100,42 89.1

IV 111"

II

IV

166.0 121.3 117.4 97,6 rram Yen Bai 73.8

"~i8.5 58.8 59,8

! 19/V (2 lan) l5/IV(21an)

Ti;r bang 2.5 efing thay rang, ddng chay kiel cua eae tram ngay cang giam, luu lugng trung binh ihang nhd nhal va nho nhat nam cua nam 2006 tren hau hei eae tram

chi con bang 1/2 ciia nam 2003 Tu nam 2003 ddng chay cac thiing a ciic triim tren

song Thao song Ld deu nho ban trung blnh nhieu nam cua thiing tuang ting 34-59% Ddng vao hd chiia Hoii Binh (triim Tii Bii) tinh hinh cung hoiin toim luang tu Nhu vay

ed the tbiVy lien tuc ciic niun 2003-2006 lii nhung niim kiet Tuy khong du sd lieu nhung cung CO the thiiy riing miJa kiel niim 2007 edn thiip hem va niim 2008 lai nho han nua, vi muc nuoc thuc su xudng ihiVp hon nhieu (xem muj 3.2: Dien bien mire nude) Ddng chay kiet hen tuc giiim gii\ nhieu khd khiin eho eae hoal dong kinh te xa hoi ba km Cling nlur phiii dien dcite ho chiia thu\ dien

Phiin tich ddng eha\ ea miui kiel eilng eho thiu nhung diui hieu dang luu v Miia kiet tren he thong song Hong ke(^ dili 7 ihang Uu thang XI deii thaui: \ ' nam sau)

nhung (long eha\ kiet thuong ehi tap trung \iio 5 ihang air ihang \\l den ihang IV niim sau), eon 2 thang ehiixen Hep thuong eo tiong eha\ \on Kel Ljua dimi: eha\ 5 ihiim: kiet nlur tiong bang 2.0 '1 u b.uig 2.0 Lilng tha> mae du eo MI dieu net eiiii liu Hoa Binh

nhung (.long eha\ 5 thanu kiet lat Hii Noi \an i:iam iien lu lu nam 2n()3 den nav Mot

dieu dang chii y la mac du do su dieu liet ciia hd Hoa binh ddng chay tai San Tiiy trong cac mua kiet 2003-2004, 2004-2005 va 2005-2006 da tang dan hang nam nhung ddng chay mua kiel tuong iJng tai Ha Noi v3n lien tuc giam do ddng chiiy qua song Dudng (tai Thugng Cat) cung lien tuc tang Dieu nay cd the: do diln bien long song lam tang lugng dong chay qua sdng Dudng

Ddng chiiy mOa kiet tai Son Tay do cac nhanh tren thugng luu vii khu giiJa tao

thanh Dong chiiy miia kiet ciia song Da im Hoa Binh thudng chiem khoiing

40.0-43,0%, song Lo tai Vu Quang chiem khoiing 32,0-33.0% sdng Thao tai Yen Bai chiem khoiing 23,0-25,0%, con khu giiJa chiem 2,0-5,0% Ddng chiiy mua kiet song Hdng tiii

Ha Noi chiem khoiing 70,0-80,0% trong ciic nam trudc va giam xudng edn 49.0-66,0%

tu miia kiel 2003-2004 den niiy

Bang 2.6: Dong chay t r u n g binh 5 thang mua kiet tai cac tram he t h o n g s o n g H o n g (mVs)

do lien hilnh phiin lich tan suill ciia luu lugng ddng chiiy miia can de lluly muc do kiet

trong Ciic Uilm giin dil>' tren Ciie nbiinh ciia he thong song Hong

De CO CO' so so siinh \il phiin tieh chung loi tien hilnh Xii\ dung ciie dudng cong tiin suiil dong eha} nuni kiet tai mot sd \'i tri Tu\ nhien triuVe khi Xiiy dung ducmg Uin suat can khoi phuc sd lieu lai ciic tu>en siiu dap Hoa FVinh tir sau nam 19S8 tire la sau kill ho I h)a Binh chfnh thiic hoal dong

Su dung ddng eha\ tram Ti» Bu, each I loii Binh \e phiii thuong Iuu gan 200 km

de khoi phuc tldng eha\ Iram Iloa Binh (Juan he eo dune tuxen imh:

Q , i i ; , , , i i ) = a + b Q ; , ^ j i i

trong do i la thdi doan tmh; QHBinhCO ^'^ QTBUI*) 1^ ddng chay cac thiing tidi Hoa Binh va

Ta Bu; a va b la cac he sd hdi quy Cac quan he khii chat che vdi he sd tuang quan ldn

Qs'„,(i)=a+b|.QHB,nhO)+t>:-QvB ,(>)+b;.QvQ,,n,(i)-Irong dd: i hi thdi doan tfnh; Qsn,/') QnBini.t") QvR.n(i) ^''^^ Qv(ju,,n.O) ''^ ddng chiiy thiing

Ciic tram San Tily Hoil Binh, Yen Biii, Vu Quang; a, b), b., b^ hi ciie he sd hdi quy

Bang 2.8: PhuOng trinh hoi quy luu luong cac thang mua kiet giua tram Son Tay

vdi Hoa Binh, Yen Bai va Vu Quang Thiing

'"; a9T9

I linh 2.2 cho kel qua khoi phuc ddng cha\ 5 ihiing mua ean ciic niim cua Iriim Son Tiiy theo phuong trinh hoi t|U\ 5 thang kiet tu bang 2.S

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Hinh 2.2 Quan he Iuu luong thuc va tinh theo quan he ti/ong quan tram Son Tay 5 thang kiet

Bang 2.9 dua ra sd lieu khdi phuc cho mua kiet 2003-2004 cho ciic triim

Bang 2.9: Dong chay cac tram khoi phuc khi khong co ho chua

2003

2 0 0 3

2003

2 0 0 3 20(»3

492

492

491

484 4^4

474 4^4

474

472 4-1

559

565

577

>S3 5S4

1060

1090 1"SH.)

106(1

0 i.^i 1 pi-Ill

i n s o lf)6(

Q H N Thuc

i S S 4

^nv)

Q T C Thuc

I

2004

2004 2(H)4

2 ( H U

ll 2004

1 2004 1' 2004 l: 2004 2; 2(i04 2! 2iMi4

410

401

404

3')4 :^'-)l

385

37S 3"'N

1050

983

9.iO

950 PPO

1020

937 90S

^){)i\

^)60 jd'lO

^'35 00(1

1 ()9' 1 Oi9'i

631

622

6 1 ^

622 64S

446 44S

"37

^ 4 "

"2S -X5 ''^44 SON

: ^)\ 1

: 0 1 7

1080

1030 - 1(350

897 SS9

i S<S4 SSO S9"^

2004 200-1

; 1860

: 166i' 17Sf

Bang 2.10: Dong chay t r u n g binh 5 thang mua kiet cac tram

k h o n g co dieu tiet cua ho Hoa Binh (mVs)

11472 1034.6 1484.1 ' 1152 1 ^ 1480.5

11392 1049.0

13101 1539.6 1003.0

1121 4 1007.5

QktbHB 391.4

456

409 2

4598 393.5

629 9

441 1 408.4

593 9

494

721 2 ' 685

L 404 7 ^

394 5 !

355 7 527^3 ,

4 5 4 ^

645 5 459.1 1

2 5 2 6

248 6

2 5 7 5 335_^7j

261 8 1

326 8 ' 227.8 ,

177 1 •

321 2 295.3 387.8

272 1

2 2 9 9

386 8 303.3 349.8

307 1

227 6 234.9

235 2

Bang 2 1 1 : Dong chay t r u n g binh 5 thang mua kiet tren cac tram he t h o n g s o n g Hong m o t so

nam kiet (mVs) Son l a \ Hoa Binh

7152 ^393 ' 113') ' 4 4 1

305

Q u a m z | Th Cii

': 2 2 5

155 '25 -_

68

Tir cac so lieu khoi phuc tfnh toan xay dug duang tan suiVt 5 thiing mua kiet (tu

thang 12 den thang 4 nam sau) (hinh 2.3a.b)