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The Local Exchange Network in 2015 Lawrence Vanston,Ph.D.. Basic Conclusion• By the end of 2015, we will have transformed the local exchange from a narrowband network of circuit switch

The Local Exchange Network

in 2015

Lawrence Vanston,Ph.D.

President

Technology Futures, Inc.

13740 Research Blvd., Bldg C • Austin, Texas 78750-1859 U.S.A.

Basic Conclusion

• By the end of 2015, we will have

transformed the local exchange from a

narrowband network of circuit switches

and copper cable to a broadband network

of packet switches and fiber optics

The World of 1986

Household PC Penetration: <1%

Household Online Penetration: 0%

Office LAN Connections (% of PCs): 6%

Typical Modem Speed: 1.2K

Typical PC: 286(XT)

Typical Hard drive: 20 Meg

Cellular Penetration (% of pop.): <1%

CDs (% of Recordings): 7%

The LEC World of 1986

Digital Switching (% of lines): < 17%

Fiber Interoffice (% of circuits): < 12%

Fiber Feeder (% of lines): < 1%

SONET Penetration: 0%

ATM & IP Switching Penetration: 0%

The Local Exchange Network

• Forecasting

• Market Assessment

• Strategy

• Planning

Technology Futures, Inc (TFI)

TFI Mission: To help you take advantage of

technological progress and market opportunities.

• Consulting • Research • Seminars • Publications

Created 1978

Broadband Internet Access 2015

U.S Adoption of Broadband Access

U.S Adoption of Broadband Access

Broadband Access by Data Rate

3 kft 0.9 km

@52M b/s

1 kft 0.3 km

18kft

Maximum copper lengths

shown in italics.

Data Rate Increases for Analog

Modems and Broadband

96000

0.1 1.0 10.0

4 times every 4 years.

Computer Systems Policy Project

  “ today’s typical digital subscriber line (DSL) and cable modem  speeds, at less than 1 Mbps, are not fast enough to realize the full  potential of emerging applications.”

“ the benefits from widespread, affordable, next­generation 

broadband wll be significant.  The advances in medicine, 

education, national security, commuting, home entertainment and  shopping will bring dramatic improvements to our quality of life.” 

includes Dell, Compaq, Hewlett­Packard, Motorola,IBM, Intel,  NCR, EMC, and Unisys

Building the Foundation of  the Networked World,  A Vision for 21st 

Century Wired and Wireless Broadband, CPSS, Washington, January 2002.  See ”http://www.cspp.orgreports/networkedworld.pdf”.

Computer Systems Policy Project

transmission rates of almost 4 Mbps, and high definition video 

requires 19.8 Mb/s.  Some experts set the frontier for high­speed  access to high­quality, digital, skip­free audio and video as high as 

100 Mbps.”

Continued

Computer Systems Policy Project

capacity.”

  A National Imperative: Universal Availability of Broadband by 2010, 

TechNet, January 2002.  See http://www.technet.org/new/newsreleases/2002­ 01­15.64.pdf.

includes Cisco, 3Com and Palm, Genuity, Intel, Microsoft, and  Excite@Home

“TechNet calls on the President and policymakers 

to make broadband a national priority and to set a goal of making an affordable 100­megabits per 

second broadband connection available to 100 

million American homes and small businesses by 2010.”

peer­to­peer computing.” 

Video 2015

TV (many HDTV).

U.S Households with Digital TV

Wireless 2015

low-speed data.

wireline telephone connection.

public places

North American Subscribers by

1G (Analog)

2G (Digital)

2.5G / 3G (Voice/Data)

Competition 2015

Competition for Narrowband

Major ILEC Switched Access Lines

Cable Telephony on the Rise

– 1999 198,000

– 2000 850,000

– 2001 1.5 Million

Telephone has achieved 24% total market

penetration

penetration overall and 40% penetration in some

suburbs

Facilities-Based Competition

from Cable

• “ it is difficult to implement a business model

that relies heavily on purchasing essential inputs from one’s fiercest competitor A far more

reliable approach is to make capital investments

in one’s own infrastructure and to decrease

reliance on the ILECs as much as possible.”

– National Cable Telephony & Telecommunications Association, Cable

Telephony: Offering Consumers Competitive Choice, July 2001.

ILEC-Provisioned Access Lines

including Broadband

0 20

DSL Broadband

Basis for Future Competitiveness

bandwidth for the best price, including 

bandwidth for voice, data, and video in the same package

low speed data access to be available any 

time, anywhere, and almost for free

Outside Plant 2015

The Interoffice Network 2015

The Feeder Network 2015

TFI 2000 Feeder Forecast, Percentage

most Deep Fiber Systems

Average Percentage Distribution

Middle Scenario

Late Scenario

Circuit Equipment 2015

Dense Wavelength Division

Maximum Data Rate of

Commercial Fiber Systems

0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00

The Optical Transport Network 2015

network nodes on demand

Fate of Existing Circuit

Equipment by 2015

• Analog Equipment - Long Gone

• Pre-SONET Equipment - Long Gone

• 1st Generation SONET - Gone

• 2nd Generation SONET - Mostly Gone

• 1st Generation DSL Equipment - Mostly Gone

• Traditional DLC systems - All but gone

• Existing ATM/IP Switches - Replaced

ADSL Households—Middle Scenario

Switching 2015

What’s Happened to Circuit

Adoption of ATM/IP Switching—

Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines

Most Likely to Succeed

• Optical Transport Network (OTN): Wavelength Switching

with DWDM

• IP Switching

– Using OTN wavelengths as "trunks"

– Multiple Protocol Label Switching (MPLS) for Quality of

Service (QOS)

– Mesh Networks for minimum latency

• Likely victims: Circuit switches, SONET/SDH and ATM.

Summary—Forecasts for 2015

• Broadband: 24-100 Mb/s

• Wireless Dominates Voice and Low-Speed

Data

• Fiber Displaces Copper in Outside Plant

• Fiber Displaces DSL and DLC

• ATM/IP Switching displaces circuit switching

Final Conclusions

• Customers will demand more bandwidth for the best price, including voice, data, and video

• By 2015 the local exchange will be a broadband network of packet switches and fiber optics

• Of the $355 billion of network investment in 

place in 2001, $5 billion will be in use in 2015

• These changes are difficult, but necessary to 

remain competitive in the wireline business

Your Bridge To The Future

Technology Futures