Phát triển quan hệ thương mại việt nam với các nước đông á đến năm 2030 tt tiếng anh

Theoretically, the studies of Smith 1776, Ricardo 1817, Heckscher-Ohlin1933 and other researchers have revealed that international trade relations arebased on differences in countries’ h

1 RATIONALE OF THE STUDY

In the context of increasing globalization, developing trade relations hasbecome an urgent need for most countries in the world

Theoretically, the studies of Smith (1776), Ricardo (1817), Heckscher-Ohlin(1933) and other researchers have revealed that international trade relations arebased on differences in countries’ human resources, levels of human resourcemanagement, resources, technology, and levels of socio-economic development.Trade relation development allows countries to participate in division of labor andinternational cooperation; as well as to improve the economic efficiency throughspecialization and to take advantage of economies of scale On the basis of traderelation development, the integration in terms of politics, culture, society, nationalsecurity, etc will be brought about and promoted For developing countries, theirrelations with developed countries in the region can result in the establishment ofproduction network and the enhancement of regional cooperation (Kojima 1978,Krugman 1991)

In practice, in the development of trade relations in a market economy, therole of the state is particularly important This is evident through more than 30years of innovation in Vietnam Vietnam has now established trade and investmentrelations with over 230 countries and territories, signed and implemented/willimplement 16 free trade agreements (FTA), including new generation ones Tradeand investment relations with other regions, especially with East Asia region haveexperienced significant development However, in the process of developing traderelations with East Asia, Vietnam also faced many problems: Firstly, the regionaltrade relations are currently focused on only 3 of Northeast Asian countries;Secondly, the trade relation between Vietnam and East Asia still focuses mainly

on bilateral relations Thirdly, the cooperation has only developed in width but hasnot really gone into depth Therefore, Vietnam does not seem to have fully

exploited its strengths Fourthly, taking advantage of tax incentives, especially preferential utilization rate under C/O is still low Fifthly, in trade in goods, the

prevailing situation with Vietnam is an increase in trade deficit from East Asia.Trade volume increases but the index of trade density and market share shows the

relatively small proportion of goods flow from Vietnam exported to or importedfrom these markets In the coming time, East Asia is expected to become thefocus of the shift in regional role in relation to other regions The guidingdocuments in recent years crucial to Vietnam also emphasize on the importantposition and role of East Asia in the economic development, trade and security of

Vietnam Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a study on “Trade Relationship

Development between Vietnam and East Asian Countries, with visions to the Year 2030”, making meaningful contributions to both theories and practice

2 LITERATURE REVIEW

Current studies related to the research topic, both within and beyond thecountry, were reviewed and classified into 3 categories: Firstly, research on traderelations between countries, both in English and in Vietnamese, including: Smith

(1776) in "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations", Ricardo (1817) in "Principles of Political Economy and Taxation", Heckscher & Ohlin (1933) in "Inter-regional and International Trade”, Linder (1961) in “An

Essay on Trade & Transformation”, Posner (1961) in “International Trade & Technical Change”, Vernon (1966) in “International Investment & International Trade in the Product Cycle”, Porter (1990) in "The Competitive Advantage of Nations"; thesis by Hoang Xuan Hoa (2002) in "Theoretical and Practical Basis

of Development of Vietnam – EU Trade Relations”, Trinh Thi Thanh Thuy (2007)

in "The Process of Developing Trade Relation between Vietnam and Russia in the

Context of International Economic Integration", Tran Quang Huy (2015) in

"Solutions for Developing Trade Relation between Vietnam and Countries in the

Southern African Customs Union - SACU”; Secondly, research on integration and

economic trade development between countries in geographical areas, withresearch of Viner (1950), Meade (1955), Lipsey (1957), Balassa (1961), Akamatsu(1962) ), Johnson (1965), Kojima (1978), Krugman (1991); Thirdly, with 80research on trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries and withJapan, China and South Korea respectivelly This section not only clarifies thescientific contributions of existing research (in theory and practice) but alsoidentifies a research gap

3 RESEARCH AIM AND OBJECTIVES

3.1 Research aim

On the theoretical and practical bases of management of developinginternational trade relation between Vietnam and East Asian countries, theresearch proposes solutions to developing trade relations between Vietnam andEast Asian countries by 2030.

3.2 Research objectives

Firstly, to selectively systematize and interpret some theoretical bases of

trade relation development between countries; Secondly, to analyze and evaluate

the actual situation of trade relation development between Vietnam and East Asiancountries from 2007 up to now, with an attempt to identify achievements as well

as existing shortcomings and their causes; Thirdly, to examine international,

regional and national contexts, to form opinions and orientations, and to proposesolutions to developing trade relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries

4.2 Scope of the study

Firstly, the scope of the research is limited to East Asia The research,

however, only focuses on the trade relations between Vietnam and someneighboring countries, namely Japan, South Korea, China and ASEAN, whichhave official cooperation with Vietnam and are major partners with stronginfluence on Vietnam’s trade, investment and other international relations

Secondly, regarding management practices in Vietnam, the thesis focuses on

the management functions of law enforcement agencies such as the governmentand ministries, which are central management agencies, with the following 2 mainareas: The State establishes a framework for the development of internationaltrade relation; The State uses tools/measures to promote the development ofinternational trade relation

In the thesis, the trade relation between Vietnam as an independent andsovereign state and Japan, South Korea and China country is considered bilateral

In this thesis, the following are considered multi-lateral: Trade relation betweenVietnam and ASEAN as a whole; trade relation conducted by Vietnam as a

member of ASEAN in ASEAN + 1 cooperation models, ASEAN + 3; Vietnam’srelations with East Asian countries within the framework of regional cooperationinitiatives and multilateral cooperation forum in the region Trade relation anddeveloping trade relation between Vietnam and East Asia, in this thesis, arelimited in the field of trade in goods.

Thirdly, the research explores the actual situation of developing trade

relations between Vietnam and East Asian countries and the achievements from

2007 up to now Recommendations and solutions to developing trade relationsbetween Vietnam and East Asian countries can be applied by 2030

5 RESEARCH METHODS

5.1 Research methodology and approach

Dialectical and historical materialism was adopted as the foundation of thestudy Research approaches include: from theory to practice; cause and effect;systems approach; with the state as the research subject

5.2 Research methods

5.2.1 Data collection methods

- Primary data collection methods Primary data were collected from

in-depth interviews with experts, researchers in universities and other institutions

- Secondary data collection methods Secondary data were collected from

sources within and beyond the country The prior are: summary reports, datapublished quarterly and yearly as well as posted daily on the websites ofministries, for instance Ministry of Industry and Trade, General Statistics Office,General Department of Vietnam Customs, etc.; articles and studies published injournals such as Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, Journal of Trade, etc.; booksand reference materials from the library of Thuongmai University and the NationalLibrary Data from foreign sources were mostly collected from reliable websitessuch as Trademap, UNCOMTRADE, WITS under World Bank, WTO, ASEANinformation portal, etc

5.2.2 Data analysis methods

Primary and secondary data were analyzed using general analysis oftheories, descriptive statistical methods, comparative statistics They werechecked, evaluated in terms of appropriateness and accuracy, then selected to becalculated and analyzed Excel and website of WITS were employed to calculate

the international trade index to reflect the trade relation results in Chapter 2.

6 NEW CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE STUDY

Theoretical Contributions

The thesis has systematized and further developed theoretical and practicalbases for trade relationship development Besides clarifying the nature of traderelationship development, forms and criteria for assessment, the thesis hasfocused on principles and requirements of trade relationship development Inparticular, the thesis seeks to examine the following 2 points: that the State ofVietnam creates frameworks for the establishment of trade relationships and thatthe State of Vietnam employs tools/measures for the development of traderelationships In addition, the thesis has indicated international, regional andnational factors that affect international trade relationship: The international andregional factors are globalization, trade liberalization trends, advances in science

of engineering and technology, emergence of new issues in internationalrelations, etc The national factors include the national policies of internationaleconomic integration, conditions for the development of international traderelationship (i.e the country’s law and policies, physical and socialinfrastructure, competing capacity, human resources, etc) Furthermore, thethesis has studied the experience of such selected countries as China, Japan andSouth Korea in developing trade relationships and drawn lessons for Vietnam,especially with the East Asian region

Practical Contributions

Reviewing Vietnam’s potential to develop trade relationships with EastAsian countries and the status quo of developing trade relationships in the EastAsian region, the thesis conducted an in-depth analysis of the status quo ofVietnam’s developing trade relationships with East Asian countries from 2007 up

to now The analysis focuses on clarifying the status quo of developing traderelationships with East Asia and the applied policies of developing traderelationships with East Asia

The thesis employed the qualitative research method, conducting in-depthinterviews with experts in order to analyze and offer judgements and evaluation

of achievements and limitations of developing trade relationships with East Asiafrom 2007 up to now To be specific, the achievements are demonstrated with

evidence of having facilitated trade relationship development in different formsand at different levels, established frameworks for the development, createdmechanisms for supporting and promoting trading relationships, expanded tradescale, developed various economic relations, cultural exchanges, foreign directinvestment In the meantime, the thesis has indicated the limitations oforganizing the implementation of the national policies, collaborating to resolvedisputes and to deal with constraints emerging from the status quo of trading

Recommendations

Based on the theoretical and practical backgrounds of trade relationshipdevelopment with China, South Korea, Japan and ASEAN, the thesis proposesviewpoints, orientations and solutions in order to develop trade relationshipsbetween Vietnam and East Asia up to the year 2030 In particular, the solutionsare categorized into some main groups: building a comprehensive framework ofcooperation and deepening the relationship with East Asia countries, promotingnegotiations with East Asian countries, conducting two-way communication atgovernment level, developing human resources, addressing trade deficit,collaborating to promote trade effectively, etc Furthermore, the thesis alsoproposes a number of conditional solutions such as continuing breakthroughs ininnovation of integration thinking, raising social awareness about the integrationand development of trade relations in the new context, improving in the businessenvironment and the law, strengthening the assignment and decentralization instate management

7 STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY

Apart from the Introduction, Conclusion, List of Abbreviations, List ofTables and Figures, References, Appendices, the research consists of 3 chapters

Chapter 1 Theoretical framework and practical experience of developing

trade relation between countriesChapter 2 Analysis and evaluation of the actual situation of developing

trade relation between Vietnam and East Asian countries Chapter 3 Opinion, orientation and some solutions to developing trade

relation between Vietnam and East Asian countries by 2030

Chapter 1 SOME THEORETICAL BACKGROUNDS AND PRACTICAL

EXPERIENCE OF DEVELOPING INTERNATIONAL TRADE

- International trade relations is used to mention all relationships in different

forms of linkage and cooperation on various levels that bring mutual benefits

- The development of international trade relations: In essence, the

development of international trade is the process of reflecting the efforts of theparties to create change in all aspects of established trade relations, includingscale, scope, content, and nature with the aim of increasing the efficiency andsustainable development of this relationship

The forms of developing international trade relations

- Regarding the nature of the relationship: Bilateral and multilateral traderelation development

- Regarding the levels of cooperation: First, negotiate and join global economic, financial and financial institutions and institutions; Secondly,

cooperation in regional, inter-regional conferences, sub-regional/sub-regional

cooperation; Thirdly, cooperation in regional forums; Fourthly, participating in regional economic links; Fifthly, cooperating under bilateral or regional

agreements or FTAs

- Regarding cooperation in policy making: information exchange, dialogueand consultation, policy coordination, policy consistency

The characteristics of developing international trade relations

As it is among those special international relation, developing international

trade relations has its own characteristics: Firstly, this is considered the

manifestation of national views, decisions and guidelines on foreign policy

Secondly, this is a step that the governments involved in regional and international

economic and trade integration make in order to create a premise for promoting

cooperative relations in other fields Thirdly, in developing trade relations,

governments are considered to be voluntary and proactive in the international

commercial games Fourthly, in recent years, international trade relations have been developed at a fast pace, with a larger scale and a wider scope Fifthly,

developing international trade relations is carried out on the basis of establishedtrade relations and according to the interests and needs of the involving countryiesthemselves

The criteria for evaluating the development of international trade relations

Based on the research results of Hoang Xuan Hoa (2002) and Tran QuangHuy (2015), the author of this thesis inherits and identifies criteria to evaluate thedevelopment of international trade relations by width and by depth:

Firstly, criteria by width, which evaluate development of international trade

relation by the development in number of relations: The number of partners tobuild international trade relation with; The number of signed commitments andnational agreements; The number of mechanisms to monitor and support thedevelopment of international trade relations

Secondly, criteria by depth, which evaluate development of international

trade relation by the quality of the relations: Structure of partners to buildinternational trade relation; Structure of types, forms and nature of cooperation;Areas of commitments and cooperation, as well as the level of commitment insigned agreements; The influence of developing international trade relation on thecountry’s socio-economic development, FDI attraction and aid…

In order to evaluate the development of international trade relation, the author of this thesis uses the above-mentioned criteria However, in order to see the development level of trade relation and investment, the following basic indexes can be taken into consideration:

+ Regarding investment relations: the number of investment projects, thescale and value of investment capital flows into the country, and other factors such

as the movement of skilled workers and technology transfer…

+ Regarding service: growth-rate and turnovers of import-export services,structure and proportion of each type of service and market…

+ Regarding goods: goods export turnovers, growth-rate of export turnover, structure of import-export market, structure of import-exportgoods…

import-In addition, in order to evaluate the results of developing international traderelation of goods, the author of this thesis uses the following basic indexes:

Trade Intensity Index – TII

TIIij = (xij/Xiw) / (xjw/Xww)

In which: xij is the total export turnover of country i to country j; Xjw is the totalimport turnover of country j; Xiw is the total export turnover of country i;

Xww total export worldwide

Coefficient of Revealed Comparative Advantage – RCA

Export Specialization Index – ESI

ESI ijk= X ijk/X ijt

M jk/M jt

In which: Xijk is the export of product k of country i to country j; Xijt is the totalexport of country i to country j; Mjk is the import of product k of country j; Mjt isthe total import of country j

Trade Complementarity Index – TCI

In which: Mij is the proportion of goods j in the total import of country i; Xjk is theproportion of export goods j in the total export of country k

Regional Orientation Index – ROI

ROI k=(x kij

X ij) (x kiw

X iw)

In which: xkij and xkiw is the export turnover of product k of country i to j and theworld; Xij and Xiw is the export turnover of country i to j and the world

If 0 < ROI < 1: In-region export is lower than out-region export

If ROI =1: In-region export is equal to out-region export

If ROI >1: In-region export is higher than out-region export

1.1.2 The necessity and roles of developing international trade relations

Developing international trade relations is necessary This need arises fromthe needs and benefits of developing trade relations with satisfaction, meeting the

domestic needs and development practices of the country Specifically: Firstly, there is a difference in natural resources among countries; Secondly, there is a

difference in human resources and the use of human resource across countries;

Thirdly, the development of science and technology; Fourthly, the level of

economic development of countries

For the above reasons, it can be seen that the development of trade relationsplays an important role in the development of the country These roles areconsidered politically, diplomatically and economically In terms of political,diplomatical aspect, developing international trade relations contributes to theexpansion of diplomatic relations and other external relations; empowers thenation in the international arena In terms of socio-economic aspect, developinginternational trade relations helps the country to gradually participate in labordivision and international cooperation; efficient exploitation and use of resources;better satisfy domestic consumption needs

1.1.3 The factors that affect the development of international trade relations

Regional and international factors

Firstly, globalization is the main impact on the world economic

development; Secondly, the trend of trade liberalization; Thirdly, the correlation between subjects in international trade relations; Fourthly, the development of science and technology and technology; Fifthly, there are new problems in international relations Finally, the economic and political development of some

main countries has changed dramatically and affected the international traderelations In East Asia region, the impact of the global economic and financialcrisis, followed by systemic changes over the past two decades has also madeclearer the changes in policies of East Asian countries

Domestic factors

Firstly, the national policy of international integration (international

economy); Secondly, the set of conditions for developing international relations.

This set of conditions includes domestic laws and policies, conditions for physicaland social infrastructure, competitiveness, quantity and quality of humanresources, the country’s geography location and political and diplomatic status 1.2 THE PRINCIPLES, REQUIREMENTS AND AREAS OF DEVELOPINGINTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONS

1.2.1 The principles for developing international trade relations:

Developing trade relations that follow certain rules and requirements Whenparticipating in international trade relations, a country needs to follow a number ofbasic principles to ensure its rights and interests, such as: the principle of ensuringequality on sovereignty, the principle of ensuring mutual benefits and the principle

of preventing other countries from interfering with its internal affairs In addition,there are other principles such as: non-discrimination in trade, ensuringsovereignty independence and territorial integrity, multilateralizing anddiversifying external relations

1.2.2 The requirements for developing international trade relations:

Following the principles of trade relations development, when takingspecific steps and solutions to develop trade relations, governments should payattention to specific requirements such as: developing trade relations must aim atachieving national development; developing trade relations between countriesmust contribute to promoting and enhancing the country’s status; creatingcohesion and developing cooperation in other fields; developing trade relationsbased on exploiting national advantages; developing trade relations betweencountries should be based on existing practices and commitments; developingtrade relations between countries is to exploit opportunities brought about bycooperation with partners

1.2.3 The areas for developing international trade relations:

The development of international trade relation includes various points: theState gives orientation for developing international trade relation by developmentstrategies and planning; the State provides framework for the establishment ofinternational trade relations through negotiations and signing of FTAs; the Statecreates environment for developing international trade relation through the use ofmanagement tools to promote and develop international trade relations; the Stateorganizes and assign and decentralize to implement commitments; the Stateprovides information and disseminate the legal documents and the implementation

of policies and laws on developing international trade relations However, withinthe scope and objective of this thesis, the author focuses on 2 points:

Firstly, the state creates the framework for establishing trade relations,

which includes: Negotiating, signing cooperation agreements, bilateral andmultilateral trade agreements; Participating in multilateral forums and programs inthe region

Secondly, the state uses tools/measures to promote and develop trade

relations, which includes: Establishing mechanisms for monitoring domestic traderelations development; Upgrading cooperative relations through talks, state visits,joint statements; Using policy measures to promote and develop international traderelations in all areas including trade in goods, trade in services and investment.The basic policies used by the state to develop international trade relation include:international trade policy, human resource development policy, policy ofinfrastructure development, legal environment improvement, constructionplanning export production zones

1.3 INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND LESSONS FOR VIETNAM INDEVELOPING INTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONS

Through studying the experiences from China, Japan and Korea indeveloping trade relations, the researcher draws out some lessons for Vietnam:

Firstly, change thinking about regional integration In international

relations, the influence of regional and international environment is clear Thischange of mindset aims to facilitate and lead to adaptation in the developmentprocess

Secondly, the lesson of creating framework for international trade relation:

developing a strategy to sign FTAs as a foundation for the development ofinternational trade relation; The selection of partners should take into account thecomplementarity of already signed WTO commitments and future partners;Actively participate in regional cooperation programs and initiatives

Thirdly, the lesson of using tools/measures to promote and develop

international trade relation: develop a roadmap to adjust policies; enhance thecompetitiveness for domestic sectors, especially those sectors/commodities thatcan exploit domestic advantages; promote the role of the Government and relatedfunctional departments in trade promotion and business support, implementcooperative programs with partners