Đánh giá tác động kinh tế của biến đổi khí hậu đến khai thác thủy sản và giải pháp ứng phó của việt nam tt tiếng anh

Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam to provide appropriate coping solutions.. Purpose and si

AND INVESTMENT AND TRAINING

CENTRAL INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

NGUYEN THI VINH HA

EVALUATING ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES AND COPING

Central Institute for Economic Management

Scientific instructors:

1 Dr Nguyen Manh Hai

2 Dr Nguyen Viet Cuong

Reviewer 1: Prof.Dr Ngo Thang Loi

Reviewer 2 : Assoc.Prof.Dr Nguyen Ngoc Thanh

Reviewer 3 : Assoc.Prof.Dr Vu Si Tuan

The thesis will be defended against the Thesis Assessment

Committee of Institute Level, to be held at Central Institute for Economic Management at … date ……… 2019

The thesis could be found at:

Library of Central Institute for Economic Management National Library, Hanoi

INTRODUCTION

1 Rationales for studying thesis topic

The fisheries sector plays a significant role in providing human food and livelihoods Vietnam is one of the 25 major countries in the world for catch fisheries

The world is facing a series of pressing environmental issues, in which climate change is a serious threat to people and nature on global scale and requires all countries to work together for mitigation and adaptation Fisheries is one of the first sectors affected by climate change, including losses of revenue and income of businesses and households

in many areas, although sometimes climate change increases the benefits of aquatic products for some other countries and regions

It is expected that Vietnam's catch fisheries will be affected by climate change However, studies on impacts of climate change on fisheries in Vietnam are quite few Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam to provide appropriate coping solutions

2 Purpose and significance of the thesis research

The thesis aims to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change

on catch fisheries in Vietnam, thereby proposing solutions to State policies and activities of fishing communities to cope with climate change to the years 2025 and 2055

On scientific significance, the thesis justifies theoretical basis and methods of evaluating economic impacts of climate change on fisheries The thesis also develops a model to evaluate current situation and forecast the economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries of Vietnam in terms of output and currency

On practical significance, the research result is an important input for Vietnam's fisheries sector to develop a plan to cope with and adapt to climate change The thesis also makes sense thanks to proposing solutions

to the fisheries sector in response to the impacts of climate change

3 Structure of the thesis

In addition to the introduction, the conclusions and the recommendations

on further studies, the thesis includes the following contents:

Chapter 1 – Literature review in economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions

Chapter 2 – Theoretical basis, methods to evaluate economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions Chapter 3 – Current situation of economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions for Vietnam

Chapter 4 – Forecasting impacts of climate change on catch fisheries until 2025, 2055 and proposing coping solutions for Vietnam

CHAPTER 1 – LITERATURE REVIEW IN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES

AND COPING SOLUTIONS 1.1 Literarure review in economic impact of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions

Researches by many authors show that economic impacts of climate change on commercial fishing includes several factors, such

as changes in aquatic distribution and stocks, leading to changes in investment capital, labour, market, and distribution of profits and costs among related parties, long-term profitability, and ability to cope with climate change

It is possible to classify quantitative research methods of economic impacts of climate change on commercial fishing in two groups: (1) group of econometric methods, including production function models, bioeconomic models, spatial simulation models, time series data models, and integrated assessment models; and (2) group of non-econometric methods, including cost benefit analysis and contingent evaluation method

Studies show that there are three directions to cope with climate change, including mitigation, adaptation, and integrated management

of natural resources Authors have proposed various measures to help catch fisheries respond to climate change, such as: reducing fuel subsidies; restoring mangroves and protecting coral reefs to help absorb CO2; implementing sustainable fisheries; allowing large capacity fishing ships to move flexibly; developing alternative livelihoods to support coastal communities; and integratedly managing natural resources to adapt to climate change

In Vietnam there have been a number of studies on economic impacts of climate change on catch and aquaculture Authors propose several solutions such as applying an ecosystem approach to fisheries management, improving early warning systems and enhancing maritime safety, reducing over-exploitation, establishing protected marine seas, livelihood diversification, and raising awareness and capacity to adapt to climate change

1.1.3 Limitations of previous studies (research gaps) and key issues that the thesis will focus on solving

There are few quantitative evaluations of economic impacts of climate change on commercial fishing in tropical areas Most studies

assess impacts of climate change on specific aquatic species There is

no disaggregation of losses to producer and consumer surpluses Many studies only focus on forecasting losses based on revenue or damage

to producers' costs Moreover, valuing economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries at national scale is not available in Vietnam There are few domestic studies mentioning climate change response solutions of the Government

Some of the above limitations will be dealt with and resolved in this thesis Specifically, the thesis will evaluate economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in tropical sea of Vietnam, quantify impacts, including losses (or benefits) of fishers and consumers at the national scale The thesis will also study solutions that the Government has conducted and propose recommendations to help fishers effectively respond to climate change

1.2 Direction to solve research problems of the thesis

1.2.1 Research objectives and questions

The main research objective of the thesis is to evaluate economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam Three specific research objectives are: (1) Justifying theoretical basis and methods for evaluating economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions; (2) Evaluating and forecasting economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam; and (3) Proposing solutions for catch fisheries to respond to climate change in Vietnam

Research questions to be addressed includes: How does climate change affect fish resources and fisheries? Are there any solutions to respond to climate change impacts on catch fisheries? Experiences of economies in the world in coping with climate change for catch

fisheries? What are economic losses (or benefits) of climate change to producers, consumers and society in Vietnam, in terms of catch yield and currency? What solutions are needed to respond to economic impacts of climate change in catch fisheries of Vietnam?

There are two main research hypotheses to be tested:

H1: Climate change has a negative impact on Vietnam's fishstocks H2: Climate change has a negative impact on fisheries catch yield

in Vietnam

1.2.2 Objects and scope of research

The research objects are the economic impacts of climate change

on catch fisheries and solutions for Vietnam

Scope of contents: The study only focuses on evaluating economic impacts of climate change on commercial fishing, not including aquaculture Time range: Historical data from 1976 to 2017, and forecasts of the years 2025 and 2055 Spatial scope of the thesis is Vietnam, including catch in coastal, inshore, offshore, open sea and inland waters In Vietnam, the catch of marine products accounts for the majority of the total fishing production, so the thesis will focus on analyzing impacts as well as making recommendations for marine catch The thesis also provides recommendations that can be applied

to both sea and inland waters fishing, and some recommendations are prioritized to inland waters fishing

1.2.3 Research approaches and methodology

1.2.3.1 Research approaches

The thesis uses a number of approaches including global approach, systematic approach, fishing condition approach, and fish producer and consumer approach

The thesis performs 4 research steps, including (1) Literature review, (2) Understanding theoretical basis and methods of evaluating economic impacts of climate change on fishing and solutions, (3) Evaluating and forecasting economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam, and (4) Proposing solutions for fisheries to coping with climate change

1.2.3.2 Methods of collecting data and information

Desk study: Collecting published studies and data of the General

Statistics Office and specialized agencies, Vietnam living standards

survey, etc Field survey: Interviewing fisher groups to understand

impacts of climate factors and weather conditions to fishing activities

as well as to understand the current coping measures of fishers

1.2.3.3 Research methods

- Qualitative methods: Synthesis, analysis and reasoning to justify

theoretical basis and methods of evaluating economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and response solutions; statistic description, comparison, interpolation and extrapolation to assess the current situation and forecast economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries of Vietnam; SWOT analysis to justify the rationales for making policy proposals to cope with climate change for fishing activities in Vietnam

- Quantitative methods: Multivariate regression analysis using

production function model to measure and forecast the impacts of climate change on fishstocks and catch yield Vietnam; Regression analysis of demand function and partial equilibrium analysis to measure the change in social surplus, thereby determining the damages (or benefits) caused by climate change to consumers, producers and society in the fish market

Tools for data processing include MS Excel, Eviews, and Stata

fishes Water

temperature

pH, salinity

Oxygen concentration

Mangroves Coral reefs

Seagrass

Change in fish biology and

ecology Reproduction

Growth Matured size Allocation

Density

Compostion Species invsation/

extinction

Fish

resources

Fish stocks Fishing area

allocation

Fishing Catching Fishing logistics

Social surplus

Consumer surplus

Producer surplus Fishing

infra-structure

Fishing ports

Boats

Tools

Fish supply

Fish

demand

State policies

Fishing activities in communities

Factors affecting fish demand Population size Comsumption

preference Income

Substitutes (aquaculture products)

Source: Author’s suggestion

CHAPTER 2 – THEORETICAL BASIS, METHODS TO EVALUATE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ON CATCH FISHERIES AND COPING SOLUTIONS 2.1 Definitions and some general issues

Catch fisheries, or commercial fishing, is a part of fisheries, in addition to protection and development of aquatic resources,

aquaculture; processing, sale, purchase, export and import of aquatic products Catch fishing activities play an important role in economic development

Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate for

an extended period due to natural processes or human activities, manifested by global warming, rising sea levels and increasing extreme weather phenomena

In the scope of the thesis, evaluating economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries is understood as analyzing and assessing the positive, negative, short-term and long-term effects of climate change

in terms of fish stocks, fishing yield, and profit of fishers, benefits of consumers and society in commercial fishing

The impacts of climate change on aquatic resources are different in various places, including positive and negative effects Most studies show that fish stocks tend to decrease in tropical and subtropical waters Inland waters fisheries also tend to be negatively affected by climate change

Climate change affects catching and fishing logistics, specifically increasing number of inactive days due to bad weather, affecting fishing infrastructure, increasing travelling time, oil and ice consumption Fishing technology and techniques need to be changed to adapt to climate change Expenses for exploration, searching and attracting aquatic products rise Costs of purchasing and transporting seafood also increase Marine catches may decrease in tropical waters and increase in temperate regions International studies show that potential fish stocks and catches in Vietnam will decrease under climate change scenarios

2.2 Quantitative methods and models for evaluating economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam

The author cooperated with the research team on "Economic valuation of climate change for Northern fisheries and proposed mitigation solutions" (Code BDKH25) in the Program "Science and Technology for National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change” to implement a survey in the form of focus group discussions The survey was conducted in 9 coastal provinces in 2014, applying Participatory Rural Assessment (PRA) method to evaluate impacts of extreme weather events on commercial fishing and decline in aquatic stocks, causes of declines, response solutions of fishers and supports from the Government and communities

The production function model aims to quantify impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam and has the following formula:

LnCatch t = β 0 +β 1 T + β 2 LnCapacity t + β 3 LnLabour t + β 4 SST t +

β 5 LnRainfall t + β 6 Typhoon t + β 7 SOI t + β 8 D 1 + β 8 D 2 + ε t (2.4)

CPUE t = α 0 + α 1 T + α 2 LnCapacity t + α 3 LnLabour t + α 4 SST t +

α 5 LnRainfall t + α 6 Typhoon t + α 7 SOI t + μ t (2.5) Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) is applied to consider the single long-term relationships among variables with small sample size data (n ≤ 30) ARDL model takes the form as follows:

Y t = c+a 1 Y t-1 +a 2 Y t-2 +…+a p Y t-p + b 0 X t + b 1 X t-1 + … + b q X t-q + u t (2.6)

In which, Y is the dependent variable, X are the explanatory variables, a and b are the coefficients that reflect the elasticities of Y on fish price; p and q are the number of lags of the dependent and explanatory variables, c is the constant, t indicates time and u is the white noise

Table 2-4: Description of data used in production function model

Variables Description Sources

Catch t Catch yield in year t

(tonnes)

- 1976 - 2010: Vietnam Institute of Fisheries Economics and Planning (VIFEP)

- 2011 - 2014: General Statistics Office (GSO)

Capacity t Fishing effort in year t

(CV)

- 1976 - 2010: VIFEP

- 2011 - 2014: Statistical yearbooks of provinces

CPUE t Catch/effort (tonnes/CV) = Catch t /Capacity t

Labour t Total fishing labours

Climate Change Knowledge Port, the World Bank

SOI Southern Oscillation

- Đinh Văn Ưu (2010)

D 1 Proxies for policies to

encourage offshore

fishing under Decision

393-TTg

Dummy, assigned to be 0 for years before 1997, be

1 for years 1997 and later

D 2 Proxies for effectiveness

of Law on Fisheries

Dummy, assigned to be 0 for years before 2003, be

1 for years 2003 and later

2.2.3.1 Basis for model development

Partial equilibrium analysis technique is used to assess changes in producer and consumer surpluses, based on neoclassical welfare economics In the thesis, the author develops Marshall demand function,

in which the quantity of demand depends on the price of aquatic products, incomes, prices of substitutes and other exogenous factors

2.2.3.2 Fish demand function model and data

The fish demand function has the following form:

affect household consumption of aquatic products, including geographic features (regions, location to the sea), demographic characteristics such

as age, gender, marital status and occupation of of household head

2.3 Rationale for solutions to climate change response in catch fisheries

2.3.1 The need for solutions to cope with climate change in catch fisheries

The World Bank emphasizes three axes to be concerned in the reform

of commercial fishing: (1) economic axis to maximize profits, focusing

on the effectiveness of the fishing regime; (2) social axis to ensure equity issues in the distribution of resources and social benefits; and (3) environmental axis to ensure the maintenance of ecosystems and fairness among generations while ensuring healthy economic development

In theory, the maximum economic yield (MEY) is lower than the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), so it is possible to simultaneously

satisfy economic optimism and sustainability However, this optimization is only achieved if there is no open access, which leads

to an increase in catch effort until fishing profit is zero, and catch yield

(E0) exceeds MSY (Figure 2-6)

Figure 2-6: Catch yields Following social axis, commercial fishing is considered as a solution

to ensure social security Therefore, countries may have to sacrifice economic (or ecological) goals to allow free access to the poor