It can be divided into the following three components: Performance measurement Performance attribution Performance appraisal The focus of this reading is on how fund sponsors owner
Trang 1Evaluating Portfolio Performance
1 Introduction 3
2 The Importance of Performance Evaluation 3
2.1 The Fund Sponsor’s Perspective 3
2.2 The Investment Manager’s Perspective 3
3 The Three Components of Performance Evaluation 3
4 Performance Measurement 4
4.1 Performance Measurement without Intraperiod External Cash Flows 4
4.2 Total Rate of Return 4
4.3 The Time-Weighted Rate of Return 4
4.4 The Money-Weighted Rate of Return 5
4.5 TWR versus MWR 5
4.6 The Linked Internal Rate of Return 5
4.7 Annualized Return 6
4.8 Data Quality Issues 6
5 Benchmarks 6
5.1 Concept of a Benchmark 6
5.2 Properties of a Valid Benchmark 7
5.3 Types of Benchmarks 7
5.4 Building Custom Security-Based Benchmarks 8
5.5 Critique of Manager Universes as Benchmarks 9
5.6 Tests of Benchmark Quality 9
5.7 Hedge Funds and Hedge Fund Benchmarks 10
6 Performance Attribution 10
6.1 Impact Equals Weight Times Return 10
6.2 Macro Attribution Overview 11
6.3 Macro Attribution Inputs 11
6.4 Conducting a Macro Attribution Analysis 12
6.5 Micro Attribution Overview 13
6.6 Sector Weighting/Stock Selection Micro Attribution 14
6.7 Fundamental Factor Model Micro Attribution 15
6.8 Fixed-Income Attribution 15
7 Performance Appraisal 18
7.1 Risk-Adjusted Performance Appraisal Measures 18
7.2 Quality Control Charts 19
7.3 Interpreting the Quality Control Chart 20
8 The Practice of Performance Evaluation 21
Trang 28.1 Noisiness of Performance Data 21
8.2 Manager Continuation Policy 22
8.3 Manager Continuation Policy as a Filter 22
Summary 23
Examples from the Curriculum 32
Example 1 Rate-of-Return Calculations When There Are No External Cash Flows 32
Example 2 Rate-of-Return Calculations When External Cash Flows Occur at the Beginning or End of an Evaluation Period 32
Example 3 Calculating Subperiod Rates of Return 33
Example 4 Calculating the TWR 34
Example 5 Calculating the MWR 34
Example 6 When TWR and MWR Differ 34
Example 7 An Example of LIRR 35
Example 8 Annualized Return 35
Example 9 Returns Due to Style and Active Management 35
Example 10 Returns from a Market Model 36
Example 11 An Analogy to the Expression for Revenue 36
Example 12 Active Return Relative to a One-Factor Model 37
Example 13 The Pure Sector Allocation Return for Consumer Nondurables 37
Example 14 The Within-Sector Allocation Return for Technology 38
Example 15 The Allocation/Selection Interaction Return for Technology 38
Example 16 Fundamental Factor Model Micro Attribution 38
Example 17 The Influence of Noise on Performance Appraisal 39
This document should be read in conjunction with the corresponding reading in the 2018 Level III CFA®
Program curriculum Some of the graphs, charts, tables, examples, and figures are copyright
2017, CFA Institute Reproduced and republished with permission from CFA Institute All rights reserved
Required disclaimer: CFA Institute does not endorse, promote, or warrant the accuracy or quality of the
products or services offered by IFT CFA Institute, CFA®, and Chartered Financial Analyst® are
trademarks owned by CFA Institute
Trang 31 Introduction
Performance evaluation is the ex post analysis of investment performance It can be divided into the
following three components:
Performance measurement
Performance attribution
Performance appraisal
The focus of this reading is on how fund sponsors (owners of large pool of investable assets) and
investment managers conduct performance evaluation
2 The Importance of Performance Evaluation
LO.a: Demonstrate the importance of performance evaluation from the perspective of fund
sponsors and the perspective of investment managers
2.1 The Fund Sponsor’s Perspective
Form a fund sponsor’s perspective, performance evaluation acts as a feedback and control mechanism
It helps answer the following questions:
What is the fund’s performance relative to investment objectives?
What are the investment program’s strengths and weaknesses?
What are the successful and unsuccessful strategies?
2.2 The Investment Manager’s Perspective
From an investment manager perspective, performance evaluation is important because:
Virtually all fund sponsors will insist on performance evaluation
It helps determine the effectiveness of various elements of investment process and examine
relative contributions of those elements
3 The Three Components of Performance Evaluation
LO.b: Explain the following components of portfolio evaluation: performance measurement,
performance attribution, and performance appraisal
Performance evaluation is measured for an account An account is defined as ‘one or more portfolios
managed by one or more investment managers’ Thus an account could be a single portfolio invested by
a single manager or numerous portfolios invested by many different managers across multiple asset
categories
The three questions related to investment performance of an account are:
1 What was the account’s performance? – Measurement (Section 4)
2 Why did the account produce the observed performance? – Attribution (Section 6)
3 Is the account’s performance due to luck or skill? – Appraisal (Section 7)
Trang 44 Performance Measurement
4.1 Performance Measurement without Intraperiod External Cash Flows
If there are no intraperiod external cash flows, then the account’s rate of return during the evaluation
period can be calculated as:
𝑟𝑡 =𝑀𝑉1− 𝑀𝑉0
𝑀𝑉0
Example 1 illustrates the use of this formula
Refer to Example 1 from the curriculum
If there is an external cash flow at the beginning of the evaluation period, then the account’s rate of
return can be calculated as:
𝑟𝑡 =𝑀𝑉1− (𝑀𝑉0+ 𝐶𝐹)
𝑀𝑉0+ 𝐶𝐹
If there is an external cash flow at the end of the evaluation period, then the account’s rate of return
can be calculated as:
𝑟𝑡 =(𝑀𝑉1− 𝐶𝐹) − 𝑀𝑉0
𝑀𝑉0
Example 2 illustrates the use of these formulae
Refer to Example 2 from the curriculum
4.2 Total Rate of Return
Prior to 1960s performance measurement focused on income Since then the focus has shifted to total
rate of return which measures increase in wealth due to income and capital gains
In our discussions henceforth, it is assumed that the rate of return refers to the total rate of return
LO.c: Explain the following components of portfolio evaluation: performance measurement,
performance attribution, and performance appraisal
This LO is covered in sections 4.3, 4.4 and 4.5
4.3 The Time-Weighted Rate of Return
Time-weighted rate of return (TWR) reflects the compound rate of growth of $1 invested at T = 0
To calculate TWR, the account must be valued every time an external cash flow occurs These sub period
returns must then be linked together to compute the TWR for the entire evaluation period
A process called ‘chain-linking’ is used to combine the sub period returns In this method we first add 1
to the decimal rate of return for each sub period to create a set of ‘wealth relatives’ Wealth relatives
are simply the ending value of one unit of currency invested at each sub period’s rate of return Then
Trang 5the wealth relatives are multiplied together to produce a cumulative wealth relative for the full period,
and 1 is subtracted from the result to obtain the TWR
rtwr = (1 + r t,1 ) × (1 + r t,2 ) × … × (1 + r t,n) – 1
Refer to Example 3 from the curriculum
Refer to Example 4 from the curriculum
4.4 The Money-Weighted Rate of Return
Money-weighted rate of return (MWR) measures compound growth rate of all funds invested in the
account over the evaluation period Put simply, it is the IRR of the portfolio
Refer to Example 5 from the curriculum
Note: The curriculum uses a long formula to calculate the MWR, however, we recommend using the CF
register and IRR function to compute the MWR
4.5 TWR versus MWR
Represents growth of a single unit of currency
invested
Represents average growth of all money invested
Unaffected by external cash flows Sensitive to size and timing of external cash
flows
Appropriate measure if investment manager has
little or no control over external cash flows
Appropriate measure if investment manager has control over timing of external cash flows (for example with private equity)
Requires valuation on every day that an external
cash flow takes place This is a major
disadvantage of TWR
Requires valuation at start and end of period
Under normal conditions TWR and MWR will produce similar results However, when large external cash
flows occur and the account’s performance fluctuates significantly during the measurement period, then
the MWR and the TWR can differ materially
Refer to Example 6 from the curriculum
4.6 The Linked Internal Rate of Return
TWR requires valuation on every day that an external cash flow takes place To overcome this drawback
and make calculations simpler, we use the Linked Internal Rate of Return (LIRR) method
In this method, TWR is approximated by calculating the MWR over reasonably frequent time intervals
and then chain linking those returns
Trang 6Refer to Example 7 from the curriculum.
4.7 Annualized Return
For comparison purposes we often need to annualize returns To annualize the returns, we first chain
link sub period returns for each year Then we calculate the geometric mean of the annual returns
Refer to Example 8 from the curriculum
4.8 Data Quality Issues
LO.d: Identify and explain potential data quality issues as they relate to calculating rates of return
Quality of performance management process depends on quality of input data For accounts invested in
liquid and transparently priced securities, reported rates are likely to be reliable However, for accounts
invested in illiquid and infrequently priced assets, the underlying valuations may be suspect The
estimated prices may have been derived based on dealer-quoted prices for similar assets (matrix
pricing)
We should have appropriate data collection procedure and the stated account value should:
Reflect impact of unsettled trades
Reflect income owed to or by the account
5 Benchmarks
5.1 Concept of a Benchmark
LO.e: Demonstrate the decomposition of portfolio returns into components attributable to the
market, to style, and to active management
A benchmark can be thought of as:
Collection of securities or risk factors and associated weights that represent the persistent and
prominent investment characteristics of an asset category or a manager’s investment process
Passive representation of manager’s investment style
Opportunity set that represent the manager’s area of expertise
The difference between the manager’s benchmark portfolio and the market index (B – M) can be
defined as the manager’s investment style S
Trang 7P = M + S + A
This equation states that a portfolio return has three components: market, style, and active
management
Refer to Example 9 from the curriculum
LO.f: Discuss the properties of a valid performance benchmark and explain advantages and
disadvantages of alternative types of benchmarks
This LO is covered in sections 5.2 and 5.3
5.2 Properties of a Valid Benchmark
A valid benchmark should have the following properties:
Unambiguous The identities and weights of securities or factor exposures constituting the
benchmark are clearly defined
Investable It is possible to forgo active management and simply hold the benchmark
Measurable The benchmark’s return is readily calculable on a reasonably frequent basis
Appropriate The benchmark is consistent with the manager’s investment style or area of
expertise
Reflective of current investment opinions The manager has current investment knowledge (be
it positive, negative, or neutral) of the securities or factor exposures within the benchmark
Specified in advance The benchmark is specified prior to the start of an evaluation period and
known to all interested parties
Owned The investment manager should be aware of and accept accountability for the
constituents and performance of the benchmark It is encouraged that the benchmark be
embedded in and integral to the investment process and procedures of the investment
manager
5.3 Types of Benchmarks
The following table summarizes the various types of benchmarks and the advantages and disadvantages
of each type
Absolute - An absolute return is
the return objective
satisfy benchmark validity criteria
Manager Universes – Median
manager or fund from a broad
Trang 8Benchmark Advantages Disadvantages
understand, widely available and satisfies most properties of
a valid benchmark
At times manager’s style might differ from style reflected in a market index
Style Indexes - Represent
specific portions of an asset
Factor-Model-Based - Use a set
of factor exposures as a
benchmark
Captures systematic sources of return; easy to see manager’s investment style
Not intuitive: very few think in terms of factor exposures when designing a portfolio; not easily investable
Returns-Based - Benchmark
constructed using 1) series of
manager’s account returns and
2) series of returns on several
investment style indexes over
the same period Then identify
combination that most closely
tracks the account’s returns
Easy to use and intuitive
Useful when only information is account return information
Might hold positions that manager finds unacceptable
Requires many months of data
Custom Security Based -
Represents manager’s research
The simplest form of a factor model is a one-factor model Example: the market model In a market
model the return on a security is expressed as a linear function of the return on a broad market index
Rp = a p + βpRI + εp
Refer to Example 10 from the curriculum
In a multi factor model, we include more than one factors, for example: company’s size, industry,
growth characteristics, financial strength The general form of a multi-factor model is given below:
Rp = a p + b1F1 + b2F2 + … + b KFK + εp
A normal portfolio is a portfolio with exposures to sources of systematic risk that are typical for a
particular manager, i.e it has a normal beta exposure to the various systematic risk factors
5.4 Building Custom Security-Based Benchmarks
LO.g: Explain the steps involved in constructing a custom security-based benchmark
Trang 9To build a custom security benchmark we need to follow these steps:
Identify prominent aspects of the manager’s investment process
Select securities consistent with that investment process
Devise a weighting scheme for the benchmark securities, including a cash position
Review the preliminary benchmark and make modifications
Rebalance the benchmark portfolio on a predetermined schedule
5.5 Critique of Manager Universes as Benchmarks
LO.h: Discuss the validity of using manager universes as benchmarks
Performing better than the median of a universe of investment managers is a reasonable objective, but
it is not a suitable performance benchmark because:
It cannot be specified in advance
It is not investable
It is not unambiguous (who’s the median manager? Is style appropriate?)
Also manager universes are subject to survivorship bias, because fund sponsors terminate poor
performing managers
5.6 Tests of Benchmark Quality
LO.i: Evaluate benchmark quality by applying tests of quality to a variety of possible benchmarks
The following table summarizes the various criteria to test benchmark quality
Systematic Biases Minimal systematic biases or risks in the benchmark relative to the account
Historical beta of account relative to benchmark ≈ 1 on average Manager’s ability to identify attractive and unattractive investment opportunities should be uncorrelated with whether the manager’s style is in or out of favor relative to overall market
Correlation between A = (P – B) and S = (B – M) ≈ 0 on average Tracking Error Benchmark should capture important aspects of manager’s investment style
Volatility of active returns (P – B) should be low relative to volatility of (P – M) Risk
Turnover Benchmark turnover = proportion of benchmark’s market value allocated to
purchases during periodic rebalancing of benchmark Low turnover is better; otherwise investability is impacted
Trang 10Largely negative active positions implies that benchmark is a poor representation
of manager’s investment approach (this shows that manager has no investment opinion on many securities)
5.7 Hedge Funds and Hedge Fund Benchmarks
LO.j: Discuss issues that arise when assigning benchmarks to hedge funds
In a long-short hedge funds the net value of the portfolio is very small Hence, standard return measures
don’t work with hedge funds Therefore, we need another performance measure One method is to
measure the value added with respect to a benchmark
The hedge fund definition is vague which makes it difficult to identify suitable benchmarks This has led
to a widespread use of the Sharpe ratio It is often used and compared with Sharpe ratio of other hedge
funds However, comparing with median performance has issues (Similar to the manager universe
benchmark.) Also the use of standard deviation as measure of risk is problematic because of high
skewness of returns in case of hedge funds
6 Performance Attribution
LO.k: Distinguish between macro and micro performance attribution and discuss the inputs typically
required for each
Performance attribution is the comparison of an account’s performance with that of a designated
benchmark and the identification and qualification of sources of differential returns
The two basic forms of performance attribution are:
Macro attribution: performance attribution at the fund sponsor level
Micro attribution: performance attribution at the investment manager level
6.1 Impact Equals Weight Times Return
There can be two possible reasons for a positive active return:
1 Selecting superior performing assets
Trang 112 Owning superior performing assets in greater proportion relative to the benchmark
The assets themselves can be divided or combined into all sorts of categories: economic sectors,
financial factors, investment strategies, etc
Impact = active weight x return (Similar to Revenue = Price × Quantity sold)
Refer to Example 11 from the curriculum
LO.l: Demonstrate and contrast the use of macro and micro performance attribution methodologies
to identify the sources of investment performance
This LO is covered in sections 6.2 to 6.6
6.2 Macro Attribution Overview
For a fund sponsor, ‘Account’ refers to total fund consisting of investments in various asset categories
For each category we can have multiple investment managers
Performance attribution can be carried out based on a rate of return metric Also, it is useful to think
about performance attribution in monetary terms We will look at examples of both approaches
6.3 Macro Attribution Inputs
In the macro attribution approach, we use the following sets of inputs
1 Policy allocations: asset categories and weights
2 Benchmark portfolio returns; and
3 Fund returns, valuations, and external cash flows
With these inputs in hand we can decompose a fund’s performance from a macro perspective
Exhibit 3 shows the policy allocations of a fund sponsor
Exhibit 4 shows the benchmarks that the fund sponsor has selected for its managers
Domestic equities S&P 500
Trang 12Asset Category Benchmark
Equity Manager #1 Large-Cap Growth Index
Equity Manager #2 Large-Cap Value Index
Domestic fixed income Lehman Govt./Credit Index
Fixed-Income Manager #1 Lehman Int Govt./Credit Index
Fixed-Income Manager #2 Lehman Treasury Index
Exhibit 5 shows the beginning and ending values, external cash flows, and the actual and benchmark
returns for the total fund, asset categories, and investment managers
Asset Category
Beginning
Net Cash Flows
Actual Return
Benchmark Return
With the help of these inputs we can conduct a macro performance attribution (covered in next section)
6.4 Conducting a Macro Attribution Analysis
Macro attribution starts with the fund’s beginning market value and ends with it ending market value
We consider six levels and changes in these levels can increase or decrease the market value The levels
are:
1 Net Contributions: Net sum of contributions and/or withdrawals
2 Risk-Free Asset: Assumes that everything is invested in the risk-free asset
3 Asset Categories: Assumes funds are invested in asset categories per policy allocation
4 Benchmarks: Measures impact of the managers’ investment styles
5 Investment Managers: Returns actually produced by the managers
6 Allocation Effects: It is a reconciliation factor (plug)
Exhibit 6 summarizes the results for macro attribution analysis conducted using the inputs from the
previous section
Trang 13Decision-Making Level
(Investment Alternative) Fund Value
Incremental Return Contribution
Incremental Value Contribution
6.5 Micro Attribution Overview
Micro attribution based on sector weighting/stock selection
Here we calculate the Investment returns of individual portfolios relative to designated benchmarks The
portfolio can be thought of as a collection of sectors which in turn are a collection of securities The
manager’s value-added can be seen to come from two sources: the weights assigned to securities in the
Portfolio relative to their weights in the benchmark and the returns on the securities relative to the
overall return on the benchmark
There are four cases of relative-to-benchmark weights and returns for security i to consider Exhibit 7
shows these cases and their impact versus the benchmark
w pi – w Bi r i – r B Performance Impact versus Benchmark
1 Positive Positive Positive
2 Negative Positive Negative
3 Positive Negative Negative
4 Negative Negative Positive
Micro attribution based on fundamental factor model
Security-by-security micro attribution is difficult if you have a large number of securities The alternative
is to use a factor model
Factors represent common elements with which security returns are correlated and can be defined in
many ways
Sector or industry membership variables
Trang 14 Financial variables such as balance sheet or income statement items
Macroeconomic variables such as changes in interest rates, inflation or economic growth
Movement of a broad market index
Refer to Example 12 from the curriculum
6.6 Sector Weighting/Stock Selection Micro Attribution
The value added by a manager can be broken down into three components:
1 Pure sector allocation: Decision to overweight/ underweight a sector
2 Within sector selection: Decision to overweight/underweight a security
3 Allocation/selection interaction: Combined effect of 1 and 2
The value added by a manager can be expressed as:
where S is the number of sectors and r B is the return on the Portfolio’s benchmark
Exhibit 8 shows the results of a micro attribution analysis
Portfolio Return (%)
Sector Benchmark Return (%)
Performance Attribution
Total Value- Added
Pure Sector Allocation
Allocation/
Selection Interaction
Within- Sector Selection
Trang 15Examples 13, 14 and 15 demonstrate how to analyze this results
Refer to Example 13 from the curriculum
Refer to Example 14 from the curriculum
Refer to Example 15 from the curriculum
6.7 Fundamental Factor Model Micro Attribution
LO.m: Discuss the use of fundamental factor models in micro performance attribution
We first decide which factor model to use At start of evaluation period, we then determine exposure of
the portfolio and the benchmark to the factors of the fundamental factor model At end of evaluation
period, we determine performance of each factor
Refer to Example 16 from the curriculum
The normal portfolio returns represent a manager’s investment style The manager’ skill is measured by:
Actual portfolio returns – Normal portfolio returns
6.8 Fixed-Income Attribution
LO.n: Evaluate the effects of the external interest rate environment and active management on
fixed-income portfolio returns
Some concepts from sector weighting/stock selection can be applied to fixed income However, the
model needs to be enhanced to consider the major determinants of fixed income returns such as
changes in:
General level of interest rates (represented by shifts in the treasury yield curve)
Sector spreads
Credit quality
As a general rule, fixed-income security prices move in the opposite direction of interest rates: If interest
rates fall, bond prices rise, and vice versa In consequence, fixed-income portfolios tend to have higher
rates of return in periods of falling interest rates and, conversely, lower rates of return in periods of
Trang 16rising interest rates
Exhibit 10 demonstrates the effect of interest rate term structure
Consider the example displayed in Exhibit 10, where the US Treasury spot rate yield curve shifted
upward across all maturities during the nine-month period ending 30 June 2004, and where the return
for the Lehman Brothers US Government Index for the nine-month period was – 0.56% Comparing the
yield curves for 30 September 2004 and 30 June 2004, we see that in the third quarter of 2004 the
change in the US Treasury yield curve was more complex: short-term rates rose, while the yields on
government securities with terms to maturity longer than two years fell Reflecting the decline in
intermediate and long-term yields, the return on the Lehman Brothers US Government Index for the
three-month period was 3.11%
LO.o: Explain the management factors that contribute to a fixed-income portfolio’s total return and
interpret the results of a fixed-income performance attribution analysis
Exhibit 13 shows the sources of total return of a fixed-income portfolio
The contribution due to skills of the manager can be broken down into the following components:
Interest rate management effect: Measures how well the manager predicts interest rate
changes
Sector/quality effect: Measures the manager’s ability to select the right issuing sector and
quality group
Trang 17 Security selection effect: Measures the manager’s ability to select the right securities within
each sector
Trading activity: Captures the effect of sales and purchases of bonds over a given period and is
the total portfolio return minus all the other components
Exhibit 14 shows the performance attribution analysis of two fixed-income managers
Evaluation Period Returns (%) Broughton Asset
Management
Matthews Advisors
Bond Portfolio Benchmark
I Interest Rate Effect
III Other Management Effects
V Total return (sum of I, II, III,
Broughton asset management claims expertise in:
1 Interest rate management
2 Security selection
Mathews Advisors claims expertise in:
1 Identifying undervalued sectors
Data from the table validates their claims
Trang 187 Performance Appraisal
7.1 Risk-Adjusted Performance Appraisal Measures
LO.p: Calculate, interpret, and contrast alternative risk-adjusted performance measures, including
(in their ex post forms) alpha, information ratio, Treynor measure, Sharpe ratio, and M2
LO.q: Explain how a portfolio’s alpha and beta are incorporated into the information ratio, Treynor
measure, and Sharpe ratio
The most commonly used measure are:
Ex Post Alpha (also called Jensen’s alpha)
Sharpe ratio can be generalized to use the manager’s benchmark rather than the risk free asset: this
gives us the information ratio: active return/active risk
𝐼𝑅𝐴=𝑅̅𝐴 ⎯ 𝑅̅𝐵
𝜎̂𝐴−𝐵
Important points to note are:
M2
and Sharpe ratio will evaluate manager skill in the same way Treynor Measure and ExPost
Alpha will evaluate manager skill in the same way
It is possible that M2/Sharpe and Treynor/Ex Post Alpha give us a different conclusion when
manager takes a large amount of non-systematic risk
LO.r: Demonstrate the use of performance quality control charts in performance appraisal
Trang 19This LO is covered in sections 7.2 and 7.3
7.2 Quality Control Charts
Quality control charts help us evaluate an active manager’s performance relative to his benchmark
The three assumptions underlying quality control charts are:
Null hypothesis: manager has no investment skill
Manger’s value-added returns are independent from period to period and are normally
distributed around expected value of 0
Manager’s investment process does not change from period to period
If the standard deviation of value added returns is 4.1%, then based on the properties of a normal
distribution, we know that 1.28 standard deviations around the mean will capture ex ante 80 percent of
the possible outcomes associated with a normally distributed random variable 4.1 x 1.28 = 5.2 Hence
80% of possible outcomes will be +/- 5.2 around the manager’s expected value-added return of zero
This is shown in Exhibit 16
This range however only corresponds to one time period To create confidence bands for other time
periods, we transform this range into a funnel shaped lines as shown in Exhibit 15 below
Trang 207.3 Interpreting the Quality Control Chart
If the manager fails to breach the upper edge of the confidence band consistently, then we can say that
the manager performance is meeting expectations Exhibit 15 illustrates this scenario
If a manager breaches the upper edge of the confidence band consistently then we can say that the
manager performance is significantly greater than the benchmark Exhibit 17 illustrates this scenario