Climate smart agriculture in the mekong delta english Khí hậu Nông nghiệp tiên tiến vùng Đồng Bằng Sông Cửu Long

This was conducted based on detailed questionnaires which were developed by the study team to extract relevant information about current and alternative production systems that have pote

CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE

IN THE MEKONG DELTA

Options for the future of agriculture in the coastal zone of the Mekong Delta

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Table of Contents

1 Introduction 10

1.1 Context and objective 10

1.2 Main activities 10

2 Climate change impacts in the coastal zone 12

3 Current and future production systems 17

3.1 General observations from field visits 17

3.2 Field survey 20

3.3 Alternative agricultural production systems 23

3.3.1 Assessing production systems on the basis of a cost-benefit-analysis 23

3.3.2 Characteristics of top-performing production models 26

4 Overcoming adoption barriers 30

4.1 Adopting barriers 30

4.2 Overcoming adoption barriers 33

4.2.1 Improving costs and logistics of establishing and ensuring future economic success of alternative production systems (adoption barrier 1) 33

4.2.2 Improving availability and quality of technical support, information and advice (adoption barrier 2) 36

4.2.3 Improving primary producer linkages with markets and relevant market stakeholders (adoption barrier 3) 38

4.2.4 Overcoming the lack of primary producer influence in the marketplace (adoption barrier 4) 40

4.3 Summary of main recommendations on how to overcome adoption barriers 46

5 Cu Lao Dung 48

5.1 General information 48

5.2 Field survey 50

5.3 Major constraints in production systems in Cu Lao Dung 50

5.4 Farmers response to current and new agricultural production systems in Cu Lao Dung 54

5.5 Proposed production systems for Cu Lao Dung 56

5.6 The MD-ICRSL Project 58

5.6.1 Project idea 58

5.6.2 Addressing adoption barriers – recommendations for Cu Lao Dung 59

5.7 Conclusion 62

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List of Tables

Table 1: Trend of soil feature changes in the Mekong Delta during the past 30 years 14

Table 2: Districts of four study provinces that are in three ecological zones 21

Table 3: 47 Criteria for rating the production systems 24

Table 4: Overall performance of the 17 production systems against seven key criteria 25

Table 5: Ranking of alternative production systems according to water zones 26

Table 6: Ranking of alternative production systems according to DARDs 26

Table 7: Characteristics of different shrimp production models 27

Table 8: Measures to overcome adoption barriers 46

Table 9: Area per agricultural production model in 2015 in Cu Lao Dung district 49

Table 10: Cropping systems suggested by the study team for Cu Lao Dung 56

List of Figures Figure 1: Literacy rate in Vietnam and the Mekong Delta by gender 15

Figure 2: Ethnicity in Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau and Kien Giang Provinces in 2014 16

Figure 3: Aquaculture production in Vietnam and the Mekong Delta 1995-2013 18

Figure 4: Most important adoption barrier when converting to new production system, as indicated by farmers (%) 30

Figure 5: Educational status of respondents 50

Figure 6: Current challenges for agricultural production in Cu Lao Dung, as stated by interviewed farmers (%) 51

Figure 7: Farmers' response to alternative agricultural production systems (PS) in Cu Lao Dung 54

Figure 8: Farmers' suggestions to improve agricultural production in Cu Lao Dung 55

Figure 9: Proposed MARD / World Bank project for Cu Lao Dung 59

List of Abbreviations

BCR Benefit-cost-ration

CBA Cost-benefit-analysis

DARD Department of Rural Development and Agriculture

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit

ICMP Integrated Coastal Management Programme

IRRI International Rice Research Institute

MARD Ministry of Rural Development and Agriculture

MD-ICRSL Mekong Delta Integrated Climate Resilience and Sustainable Livelihoods Project MIS Market Information System

USD United States Dollar

Executive Summary

The study “Climate-Smart Agriculture in the Mekong Delta” was conducted from January to September 2016 and focused on the coastal zone (up to 30 kilometres inland) of four coastal provinces of the Mekong Delta, namely Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau and Kien Giang Due to its location and geographic features, the coastal provinces of the delta are particularly vulnerable

to climate change influences Associated problems include rising sea levels, salinity intrusion, periodic flooding and drought, disruption in the annual supply of silts due to dam-building and increased irrigation off-take along the course of the river as it flows from south east China through Laos, Thailand and Cambodia before it enters the extreme southern provinces of Vietnam

The overall objective of the study was to evaluate the potential of alternative agricultural production systems to replace rice as the main cash crop in the region This evaluation is necessary in light of changing conditions which mitigate against the growing of rice at its current level In some locations rice growing will no longer be possible Each production system’s potential was assessed on the basis of its financial viability To this was added assessments of alternative production systems against five other key criteria – technical, environmental, social, economic, political; all of which need to be taken into account to arrive

at a listing of production system options of what can be recommended to farmers who are ready, willing and able to adopt one or more of them on their farms

The methodology used by the study was based on a detailed survey of 190 selected respondent farmers and communes in the four selected coastal provinces This was conducted based on detailed questionnaires which were developed by the study team to extract relevant information about current and alternative production systems that have potential to provide farm families in the region with a viable income under expected changing circumstances arising from climate change The resultant field work was complemented by comprehensive desk studies of relevant literature and reports from other initiatives targeted on the region under the auspices of national and international agencies

From this and the follow-up assessments emerged a priority listing of the most likely alternative production systems that show the best potential to replace current ones (mainly rice) The five as most suitable rated alternative (to mono-cropping rice) production systems are: Shrimp-rice rotation; semi-intensive shrimp production; mangrove aquaculture; double-rice rotation and livestock-based systems (poultry, pigs etc.) in this order Not all of these five systems are similarly suitable for the three zones of fresh water, brackish water and salt water On the whole, 17 systems were evaluated and others than the five mentioned above can

be taken into consideration if one looks at only one specific zone

The report then reviews the main adoption barriers that have to be overcome by farmers in the region if they want to switch production systems, which is especially relevant for the many thousands of smallholders who depend on their land holdings for their livelihoods as they face what are for them critical decisions which will have far-reaching impacts both for themselves and the economy of the region

Adoption barriers are categorized under four broad headings:

• The cost involved in changing from current to new alternative production systems, which have to be considered in tandem with difficulties most farmers have in accessing affordable credit to help them effect successful transition

• Establishing alternative production systems requires learning new technologies and practices, as well as acquiring new skills Providing farmer access to information and training, and having adequate supports available from extension and other sources is a considerable challenge that has to be addressed to ensure that significant investment in infrastructure ultimately converts into increased and stable income for farmers

• The ultimate test of success will be how well farmers who transition to alternative production systems succeed in placing products in the market In doing this, new producers can expect to have to compete with existing producers and suppliers who are likely to have established comparative advantage Thus it will be necessary for new producers to produce to the highest standards and to be as competitive as possible from the very beginning

• This will be helped by primary producers becoming better connected and more engaged with their markets and with final consumers Their objective must be to exert more control over their own destinies This is likely to require them to form alliances not just with other producers, but also with other market stakeholders (processors and market operators) thereby developing their businesses to the mutual benefit of all stakeholders

The report makes recommendations under each heading

Section 1 deals with recommendations on how change can be supported in terms of funding and management of the process The role, availability and capacity of extension services (both public and private) as agencies providing support to change to and establish new production systems is included in this

Section 2 considers the learning and adoption process involved in successfully changing from current to new production systems This includes the adoption of new relevant technology and practices which brings the role of extension, education and adaptive research into sharp focus Section 3 deals with market engagement and the crucial role of the market for ensuring that new production coming from newly adopted production systems is successfully and competitively sold in the market, thereby protecting and enhancing primary producer livelihoods into the future

Section 4 discusses and makes recommendations on ways and means for primary producers,

as the weakest and most vulnerable player in the market place, to successfully engage with each other and with other market stakeholders in a way that gives them an appropriate share

of control and influence in the marketplace in order to help them defend their economic interests in a fair and equitable way Primary producers need to come together to cooperate with a view to increase their presence and influence in the marketplace against other stakeholder groups who are much better positioned to wield more influence due to their economic power

There are a number of ways of doing this; cooperatives being possibly the most obvious There are others, such as forming business partnerships with specific service providers, clustering around specific processing facilities with a view to increase markets and assuring required production levels and value of specific commodities, to the benefit of all concerned

Under each of the foregoing, recommendations are included for developing and making available capacity building programmes which target each of the stakeholder elements that make up the market paradigm – producer, processors, market operators and service providers Here as well, the need for extension and other relevant service providers to adapt

to the new realities and challenges of climate change is a critical issue that needs to be incorporated into a complete capacity building programme for all key stakeholders in the sector

Finally, the document goes on to discuss possible solutions and recommendations to work in tandem with the World Bank-funded “Mekong Delta Integrated Climate Resilience and Sustainable Livelihoods Project” (MD-ICRSL) This project has been approved by the Government of Vietnam in April 2016 and outlines significant planned investments in infrastructure (roads, communications, water control, irrigation, etc.) which are designed to address identified issues arising from climate change in the region Specifically, planned sea defence and infrastructural investment in order to support agricultural transition in Cu Lao Dung (which is an island and a district of Soc Trang province) is an immediate target for this programme

The study makes specific commentary and recommendations on the situation of Cu Lao Dung, located in the vulnerable delta estuary The island is a microcosm for the coastal region demonstrating many of the relevant issues facing the overall delta region These include salinity intrusion and the risk that rising sea levels pose to fresh water supplies across the region, as well as addressing the issue of mangrove forest protection and the role this has to play in the overall approach to mitigating the impact of climate change Cu Lao Dung is therefore a useful testing ground which has been chosen by the World Bank and the Ministry

of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) to immediately implement a coherent protection and development programme as indicated in the feasibility study of the MD-ICRSL project Planning also envisages developing the eco-tourism potential of the island as a unique location in the delta region

1 Introduction

1.1 Context and objective

This study is part of a series of studies carried out under the Integrated Coastal Management Programme (ICMP), which is funded by the governments of Germany, Australia and Vietnam, and implemented by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)

The study “Climate-Smart Agriculture in the Mekong Delta” is under the responsibility of GFA, assigned by GIZ, in collaboration with the line agency and local counterpart organisation, the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), which provides coordination with other projects being conducted by other interested agencies like World Bank and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)

The overall objective of this study is to identify financially attractive, resilient and sustainable agricultural production systems in the coastal zone (up to 30 kilometres inwards) of the Mekong Delta which could constitute alternatives to and improvement of the current rice-dominated systems in the delta and which have positive impacts on poverty and rural livelihoods Thereby, the study informs the transformation to more productive and climate-smart livelihood systems as envisaged by the Mekong Delta Plan Hence, the study would inform the design and implementation of relevant development programs, such as the Mekong Delta Integrated Climate Resilience and Sustainable Livelihoods Program supported by the World Bank The study should also inform the broader agricultural development agenda, including the MARD-led agricultural restructuring of the Mekong Delta and the Mekong Delta Climate Resilience Initiative (MECRI)

The study addresses the following key issues and questions:

• How are the current common agricultural production systems, which are focusing mainly on rice, affected by changing environmental (and socio-economic) conditions (e.g sea level rise, flooding, salinity intrusion, droughts) in the coastal zone of the delta?

• What are the 4-5 most promising alternative production systems which account more explicitly for the changing environmental and socio-economic conditions?

• What are likely adoption barriers for these identified alternative production systems and how could they be overcome?

• What type of capacity building measures are needed to facilitate the transformation to more sustainable production systems?

• What measures would be needed to facilitate an integration of smallholder farmers into the value chain (and what could be the role of the public vis-à-vis the private sector)?

1.2 Main activities

Phases 1 and 2 (January – May 2016)

The study started in January 2016 with the kick-off of the first phase, including a mission of the team leader to Vietnam Based on the inception report, phase 2 of the study started in

March 2016 The main activity of the second phase was to conduct of a field survey in which

190 respondent farmers, both individual and members of communes, were interviewed via a specially designed questionnaire by the project team (team leader and three local experts) In tandem, the project engaged in a comprehensive study of relevant literature and reports from other projects and studies focusing on the Mekong Delta and climate change issues which impact on the region

The project survey with 190 farmers confirmed the production potential of alternative systems that best respond the changing requirements of the region as it met the challenges of climate change These production systems have the potential to replace current systems (particularly rice) that in many areas will not be able to perform into the foreseeable future due to salination The data collected highlights the absolute need to adopt a two-pronged approach to economic development of the region and makes the following recommendations:

• Investment in infrastructure is needed to offset the impacts of salinity being driven by the twin issues of rising sea level and climate change which increases the risk of seasonal flooding and drought Much work in this direction is currently underway, with more planned under the various programmes

• A corresponding focus and budgetary allocation needs to be made for enhanced sion and information services to primary producers as well as other key stakeholders in the concerned value chains, both old and new, that will feature in the region over coming decades

exten-Phase 3 (July – August 2016)

The main activities of Phase 3 were to:

• Conduct a cost-benefit analysis of the main 17 production systems currently being grown in the coastal region in order to identify the most suitable alternatives to rice or other crops that are heavily influenced by climate change;

• To identify and report the main adoption barriers preventing farmers from changing from current to new alternative production systems which have the potential to continue to provide them with income under changed circumstances arising from climate change;

• To consider measures targeted on overcoming identified adoption barriers and to discuss these with a range of stakeholders, as well as ICMP, in course of field visits and meetings;

• To indicate potential business models for selected alternative systems and concrete examples how to implement them

• In the case of Cu Lao Dung, to explore how best to engage with ongoing and planned investment programmes under the auspices of World Bank and Vietnamese Government

On this basis, the final report of the study was submitted in September 2016

2 Climate change impacts in the coastal

zone

The Mekong Delta region is regarded as Vietnam’s primary agricultural region, which makes a significant contribution to overall agricultural output The Mekong Delta is home to 17 million people and is Viet Nam’s most important agricultural region Producing 55% of the country’s rice, the Mekong Delta feeds more than 245 million people worldwide Besides rice, the Vietnamese aquaculture sector has risen by around 250% in the past 10 years, and the Mekong Delta accounts for 70 percent of national aquaculture products The Mekong Delta is annually producing 2.4 million tons of aquaculture products worth about USD 3.8 billion, compared with 6.2 million tons of rice worth USD 2.7 billion

Climate change impacts in the Mekong Delta

Climate change is a dynamic process which is impacting on the delicate ecosystem in the Mekong Delta region, large parts of which are no more than 1 metre above sea level in the most vulnerable coastal region As such this region is very subject to rising sea level and water inundation due to seasonal flooding arising from annual rainfall in the Mekong river basin which flows through seven countries as it flows from China to enter the sea in Southern Vietnam

Rising sea levels which are a consequence of global warming are having increasing impact in the delta, with some sources predicting that as much as 39% of the region could be underwater by the end of this century

Increased salinity intrusion arising from rising sea levels is already impacting on traditional cropping patterns in the region, most notably on rice production, which is the main economic crop associated with the region as rice is not tolerant to salt

Rising sea levels and associated salinity are therefore over coming decades expected to exert increasing pressure on farmers to change from current production models to systems that are better suited to changed ecological and environmental conditions Increasingly this will require farmers to adopt new enterprises better suited to much changed conditions if they wish to maintain their incomes in an economically sustainable way, and in a way that will also

be ecologically and environmentally sustainable

This foresees significant reduction in rice growing in favour of alternative production systems that are economically viable as well as environmentally sustainable, to support dependent families and communities In this transition, farmers and communities will need to be encouraged and supported in successfully changing and adapting

Recent experience

Recent experience indicates that weather patterns which impact on the region are changing, so that climate change is very much a reality in the fragile Mekong Delta ecosystem The global phenomenon known as El Nino has a profound impact on weather patterns across the globe, causing cyclical fluctuations in weather Specifically this has influence on the pattern of supply

of water coming into the Mekong basin from one year to the next

An example of this, reduction of water flow into the river basin, as experienced in the first half

of 2016, allowed salt water inundation to impact further upstream (up to 70 km in some areas), thereby increasing areas of saline and brackish water zones further inland than was expected During spring of 2016, the Mekong Delta saw severest drought and incidence of salinity intrusion in 90 years

The frequency of seasonal drought and monthly drought is increasing in the delta, while level is also rising It is estimated that future climate change will cause or contribute to more intensive salinity intrusion, thereby destroying the vegetation and biological diversity of the ecology of mangrove forests, especially in Kien Giang and Ca Mau provinces which are considered to be most at risk

sea-Climate change related phenomena are further exacerbated by man-made interventions which cause increased off-take of water from the overall river catchment area These include infrastructural projects (dam, reservoir and irrigation system building), most of which are in other jurisdictions and therefore outside of the effective control of Vietnam These have a big impact on the volumes and timing of water coming into the delta region

Changes in the nature of water flow resulting from these diversions of supply also impact on what was considered the natural annual supply of silt which traditionally enhanced and renewed fertility in the delta region Increasingly, significant amounts of enriched silt are simply not reaching the delta region at all, but are being diverted and trapped along the way

by man-made structures

Finally, the use of chemical fertiliser, pesticides and insecticides, much of it unregulated all along the river, results in high levels of chemicals and pollution, some of it toxic, finding its way into the delta’s ecosystem, with the potential to create serious environmental and health problems Not the least of these is the potential they have to contaminate food products being grown in the delta This calls for all countries that have populations that rely on the Mekong river for their economic wellbeing to coordinate their efforts in the management and regulation of what is a most valuable but vulnerable resource for all concerned

The coastal zone

The coastal zone of the delta in which the four selected provinces are located is characterised

by a dynamic process of accretion (due to silting), and erosion The annual land loss due to erosion in some areas may reach 30 metres per year while land created annually through accretion in other areas may be as high as 64 metres Six of the 13 provinces in the delta are situated on its coastal zone, which is divided into 3 ecological zones, namely fresh water, brackish water and saline water zones

This study focuses on the coastal area in each province which extends 30 km inland and which

is subjected to the twin and sometimes conflicting influences of salination intrusion, driven by rising sea levels, and annual floods coming down the Mekong River These water volumes are impacted by both natural and man-made factors

Soil

The Mekong Delta has many types of soil but changes in their features have been observed due

to heavy land-use and insufficient nutrient supply as shown in Table 1

Table 1: Trend of soil feature changes in the Mekong Delta during the past 30 years

Before Present

Medium acid sulphate soil Alluvial soil or alluvial soil poor in nutrients

Potential acid sulphate soil Alluvial soil on actual acid sulphate soil

Soil affected by salinity Alluvial soil on saline soil

Source: IUCN

Degraded grey soil area for example has increased while the area of acidic soil has declined Saline soil area declined at first for two decades but after that has increased again due to the weaker flows coming from upstream Mekong during the dry season

It may be concluded that there has been soil degradation in the delta although care needs to be taken in drawing further conclusions from this Soil degradation does not necessarily cause irreversible damage although it may be prudent for both government and donors to immediately plan and implement actions that mitigate or adapt to climate change

Soil degradation is a broad term for declining soil quality which includes deterioration in physical, chemical and biological properties of soil; as well as a long-term process in which both soil erosion and nutrient decrease are part

Land degradation refers to a reduction of the capacity of the land, together with factors such

as climate, topography, soil, hydrology and vegetation which impact on productive capacity It

is more than just a physical or environmental process Inevitably it has socio-economic consequences

Water, watershed and environment

The quantity of Mekong Delta water resources is declining and recently observed trends are summarised as follows:

Reduced water volume: The volume of flood water coming to the delta has declined, and the peak flood-level observed for example in Chau Doc station in 2010 was the lowest in 85 years Reduced water quality: The delta water content (g/m3) has not changed significantly but the total sediment load coming to the Mekong Delta has declined due to the reduction of water volume passing through The water has become more polluted with urban waste This last is possibly reversible

Change in water seasonality: The flood season starts later than before and floods also come unexpectedly

Wild caught fishery: There is a strong relationship between peak water-level and wild fishery production The wild-caught fishery resource has declined as a result mainly of water-level decline and overexploitation

Mangrove forest reduction: Many mangrove areas during the past 30 years have been converted to aquaculture mainly for raising shrimp Most of the natural melaleuca and grassland areas have been converted either to rice agriculture or replaced with planted

melaleuca Scattered protected areas have been established at biodiversity hotspots; while natural habitats outside of these protected areas have almost totally disappeared due to the expansion of agriculture and aquaculture Habitats inside protected areas are semi-natural Wetland habitat quality decline: This is mainly due to poor management of hydrology regimes that created and support the delta’s seasonally-inundated wetland ecosystems

Decline in peat area and quality: Peat land is mainly distributed in the U Minh region The total peat area in 1962 of U Minh was about 90,000 ha but at present only about 12,000 ha remain

in U Minh Ha National Park and U Minh Thuong National Park and their buffer zones layer depth has also declined significantly due to poor management practices which have resulted in peat fires and oxidation

Peat-Gender issues

Official data on literacy shows that 93% of women in the Mekong Delta are literate compared

to 96.4% for men The national average is 94.7% for both men and women

Illiteracy is more prevalent amongst women in the Mekong Delta than elsewhere in Vietnam Literacy is closely linked to poverty and is an important indicator of social vulnerability as not being literate reduces access to information and services

Figure 1: Literacy rate in Vietnam and the Mekong Delta by gender

Source: GSO, 2014

This may have implications for government and donor funding allocation decisions Many studies including those by the Food and Agriculture Organisation have unambiguously concluded that the key contributor to sustainably improving household welfare is more related to the female-literacy level than that of male income It may therefore be prudent for the government and donors to target actions aimed at improving female literacy in order to improve the overall welfare of the women which in turn will have the effect of improving the welfare of all household members, including adult males and children

This also takes into account the positive role that females (wives, partners, mothers) in the household can play in keeping accurate records, analysing farm business returns and figures

as well as monitoring/controlling cash flow related to the efficient day to day running and management of the farm business

The ethnic minority distribution is uneven across the provinces

Soc Trang and Kien Giang provinces have the largest ethnic minority populations while Ca Mau has the smallest population as shown in the following table

Figure 2: Ethnicity in Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau and Kien Giang Provinces in 2014

Source: Provincial statistical year book, 2014

Soc Trang province, which has by far the largest ethnic minority percentage, also has the highest number of income poor of the four target provinces, suggesting that ethnicity and income poverty are correlated

14,98 4,15

3 Current and future production systems

3.1 General observations from field visits

The numerous field visits conducted within the study allow for several general observations

on the ability of farmers to transition to possible new production models which may be more suitable under changed environmental conditions

Cost of adopting new production systems: Adapting to other alternative production systems will present challenges which will need considerable support from supporting agencies; first among these are DARD extension services, government and financial support services, as well

as other relevant stakeholders who can help farmers learn new practices which will help to successfully transition from current to chosen alternative production system

Affordable credit: The cost of establishing new production systems is high and is perceived

by prospective producers as not being so well supported from currently available credit and investment packages This will need to be addressed by future support initiatives

Note: As established by the study team in discussions with the local DARD offices, the cost of establishing intensive shrimp across the region is circa 129 million VND/ha (USD 5,800) Changing to aquaculture is perceived to be the option requiring the highest investment

Environmental considerations: In this fragile delta region, ecological considerations have to

be accorded high priority by farmers as they adapt to changing conditions The farm input supply (agrichemicals, fertiliser, insecticides, herbicides etc.) sector needs to be monitored and regulated if high levels of chemicals in food products and the delta environment are to be avoided The agri-sector is particularly open to this arising from the relatively free flow of such materials through the markets supplying farmers

Market considerations: Production decisions need to be made in line with market requirements, and more crucially with market demand This will require the establishment and operation of an effective market information system (MIS) to advise producers as they make their production decisions in an effective and timely way

Aquaculture, and in particular shrimp production is perceived to have “limitless potential” on domestic and export markets, despite the stringent conditions that attach to exporting the product Aquaculture is a fast growing production system in the coastal provinces of Mekong Delta which accounts for most of the country’s shrimp production

In a relatively short period, Vietnam has become a significant and well established player on export markets for shrimp It is currently the second ranking exporter by volume See following graph which highlights the growth of shrimp production (most of it in the Mekong Delta) since 1995

Shrimp, especially extensive shrimp, is a high value commodity There is considerable potential for premium value organic shrimp on export markets which Vietnam can target

Figure 3: Aquaculture production in Vietnam and the Mekong Delta 1995-2013

Source: VSO 2015

Extension services (DARD): While DARD in some of the provinces visited see themselves to

be broadly adequate to the task of advising and supporting transition to alternative production systems, there is need to look critically at areas of their services provision to primary producers in meeting current and future challenges

The problem is not so much DARD’s staffing levels which seems quite adequate (3 advisers to each commune), as with how well equipped advisory personnel are to advise and guide farmers Increasingly, they need to be able to advise on a range of production systems, many of which are outside of their current professional competence This requires advisers to increase their knowledge and capacity on latest relevant technology and practices on what are for them new production systems

Provision of more resources (personnel, financing, transport, IT support, communication mechanisms etc.) will be needed to meet the requirements of client farmers (especially small-holders), who need considerable support as they transition from current to new production systems

Turning farmers into farm business managers: More emphasis and support will be needed

to upskill farmers on enterprise management (financial as well as physical) to successfully transition to new alternative production systems Increasingly, producers need to regard their farm enterprise as farm businesses to be managed in a business-like way

To do this they need training in a range of activities – record-keeping, cost and income monitoring and analysis of overall financial performance to help plan the future development

of their farm business In this they will have initially to rely on extension services to assist them in the basics of recordkeeping and financial analysis

Market awareness: Increasingly DARDs needs to position themselves to be market aware and

to advise client farmers on planning their production in a market-led way The big problem adopting new unfamiliar production systems from a farmer perspective are the difficulties new producers are likely to encounter finding and engaging with markets for new products DARDs need to help minimising risk of over-production of products due to lack of market awareness in a very fragmented supplier base made up of many small scale suppliers This manifests itself in fluctuations in price which puts producer incomes at risk

Producers mainly rely on middle-men and agents to get their products to market These may not have producers’ best economic interests in mind There is need for more producer engagement with their markets to help them promote and defend their economic interests Environmental awareness: DARDs are likely to be the first providers of advice and support

to their farmer clients on how to manage their natural resources – water, soil and land – in an ecologically responsible way

Primary producer linkages with processors and other market operators: There is a marked lack of trust between processors and primary producers which explains why there is currently a very low incidence of supply contracts between primary producers and processors Many processors prefer to deal with middlemen and agents on whom they rely to police and monitor quality issues

The experience of supply contracts with suppliers, as quoted during field visits to processing plants, is generally not positive so far Processors met cited incidence of supply contracts made at the start of season, being broken because prices were better elsewhere

Debts (for seed and other inputs/services supplied) were left unpaid, while product was sold

to competitors

The study team observed that processors are inclined to perceive that they have more control over procurement of raw material, as well as key issues such as quality, delivery scheduling, etc., if they deal through middle-men

Dealing through middlemen/agents is also logistically easier for processors due to much reduced administration with single agents who can source product from multiple suppliers, and who can be made responsible for monitoring and applying quality standards in line with requirements

Some middle men have built good relationships with both producers and processors They are providing good service to both, a fact which any emergent farmer grouping (cooperative or other) hoping to replace or compete with will have to take into account if they contemplate forming groups targeted on market engagement

Current cooperative operation: Cooperatives as operated in delta are not really operating as commercial entities focused on providing members with economic benefits So-called “large field” cooperatives (for rice) are more focused on aggregating land and input usage, as well as integrating the transfer of production for processing and export Individual member producers are not so much involved in determining policies within these entities, and feel somewhat disengaged from the overall marketing of the product, with very little control over the level of income arising; they are still essentially “price-takers” in the overall scheme of things These cooperatives are more extensions of state systems, targeted on influencing production in line with national production planning (to meet export targets etc., rather than producer objectives which are focused on increasing income)

Cooperatives met during field visits are not so well able to engage with financial institutions

on their own or members’ behalf As economic entities, they have little or no assets (apart from member contributions), which means they have little or no collateral value to bring to negotiations with banks

As observed by the study team, the cooperatives met are subject to control and influence from local authorities These are not the kind of commercially-focused, member- and market-led entities envisaged in the recommendations for cooperatives being made in this document

Leadership: There is need to find leadership potential among primary producers to find people who have the capacity to lead and drive forward commercial initiatives that can be agreed with other producers, and who are capable of engaging with other market operators and processors

This needs to be coupled with identification of viable economic market related activities, as chosen by members that have potential to accrue economic benefit to members Well operating cooperatives need to be member-initiated, -managed and -led commercial organisations that link primary producers with markets in a way that allows them to defend their economic interests on an equal footing with other market stakeholders

Gender issues: During visits and meetings, gender did not emerge as a major problem issue across the region It was noted that currently there are more women attending DARD courses, though a lack of female participation in courses on aquaculture was noted by some DARD offices

There seems to be more interest in livestock husbandry among women, which indicates women are the main practitioners of these enterprises in households DARDs agreed that amongst others in the areas of farm and production system recording, account keeping and monitoring, women participation has a positive role to play

3.2 Field survey

The field survey was conducted by the project team during March and April 2016 in the coastal region (up to 30 km inland) of the selected four provinces Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau and Kien Giang

190 respondent farmers and communes were visited and interviewed by means of questionnaires which were designed by the team to facilitate analysis and understanding of the agricultural sector in the Mekong Delta This involved collating information related to a series of factors like crops planted, production inputs, yields, livestock husbandry, responsible household members etc which need to be considered in mapping out the future development

of agriculture in this ecologically sensitive region This is key to determining how best to adapt

to climate change processes that have already started to impact on agricultural production and

on livelihoods in the region, and which will have to continue to adapt as time goes on

More than 60% of the interviewed farmers were engaged in rice production, about one third in aquaculture production, and the rest in the production of other crops

The survey is an indicator of what is happening in the agricultural sector arising from climate change events and trends which are dynamic and ongoing As such it conveys perceptions from the front line, from people who are the first to experience what is happening and who need to be helped and supported to adapt to changing circumstances which most directly impact on their livelihoods

Results from the survey will be drawn on in the following pages to highlight key issues

Water zones (fresh, brackish or salt water)

The following table indicates how the districts of the four provinces are distributed in the three water zones which have a huge influence over what production systems can be implemented As these change under the influence of climate change, farmers will have to make choices on how to best adapt

The table also indicates areas where seasonal flooding and droughts cause zones to fluctuate between the water composition, which calls for flexible management and husbandry responses from affected farmers

Table 2: Districts of four study provinces that are in three ecological zones

Ngan Dua, Ninh Quoi, part of Ninh Quoi A, part of Ninh Hoa

Phuoc Long Phong Thanh Tay A, Phong

Thanh Tay B

Phuoc Long, part of Vinh Phu Tay, part of Phuoc Long town

Part of Vinh Phu Tay, Vinh Thanh, Vinh Phu Dong, Hung Phu, part of Phuoc Long town

Gia Rai

Ho Phong, Tan Phong, Tan Thanh, Phong Thanh, Phong Thanh A, Phong Thanh Tay

Part of District 1, part of Phong Tan

Part of District 1, part of Phong Tan, Lang Tron, Phong Thanh Dong

Hoa Binh

Vinh Hau, Vinh Hau A, part

of Vinh My A, Vinh Thinh, part of Hoa Binh town

Minh Dieu, Vinh Binh, part of Vinh My A, part of Hoa Binh town

Vinh Loi part of Hung Thanh, part of

Chau Hung, Chau Hung A, Chau Thoi, Hung Hoi, Vinh Hung, Vinh Hung A, part of Hung Thanh, part of Long Thanh

Bac Lieu town

District 2, District 5, Nha Mat, Hiep Thanh, Vinh Trach, Vinh Trach Dong

District 1, District 7, District 8

Ca Mau

water (dry season)

6 months are in Fresh water (rainy season)

water (dry season)

6 months are in Fresh water (rainy season)

water (dry season)

6 months are in Fresh water (rainy season)

Tran Van Thoi Song Doc

Tran Van Thoi, Khanh Dinh Dong,Loi An, Phong Dien, Phong Lac

Khanh Binh, Khanh Binh Tay, Khanh Binh Tay Bac, Khanh Hai, Khanh Hung, Khanh Loc, Tran Hoi

PROV-INCE DISTRICT

COMMUNES BELONG TO

SALT WATER ZONE BRACKISH WATER ZONE FRESH WATER ZONE

Kien

Giang

Kien Luong Part of the district Part of the district

U Minh

An Bien Part of the district Part of the district Part of the district

Vinh Thuan Part of the district Part of the district

Hon Dat Part of the district Part of the district Part of the district

Giang Thanh Part of the district Part of the district

An Minh Part of the district Part of the district

Soc

Trang

Soc Trang

Cu Lao Dung 4 months are in salt water 4 months are in brackish

water 4 months are in fresh water

water 6 months are in fresh water

Huynh Huu Nghia, My Huong,

My Phuoc, Hung Phu, Long Hung, Phu My, Thuan Hung

water 9 months are in fresh water Long Phu Long Duc, Long Phu, Phu Dai Ngai, Chau Khanh, Hau

PROV-INCE DISTRICT

COMMUNES BELONG TO

SALT WATER ZONE BRACKISH WATER ZONE FRESH WATER ZONE

Huu, Tan Hung, Tan Thanh Thanh, Song Phung, Truong

3.3 Alternative agricultural production systems

3.3.1 Assessing production systems on the basis of a

cost-benefit-analysis

Arising from the field work and other supporting elements of the work (desk study of relevant literature, contact with other projects and government), the following most relevant production systems have been identified in the study area

These 17 production systems were assessed first on the basis of their financial performance (cost-benefit-analysis – CBA) before evaluating them further under a more complete scoring system which considered other key evaluation criteria to arrive at an overall assessment of each production system and its potential for adoption under climate change circumstances All figures related to the 17 production systems were discussed and validated with extension services and DARDs during the field survey and at meetings in July 2016 They were presented

at the ICMP workshop in Can Tho on July 5th, and further discussed with MARD personnel at a workshop on July 28, 2016 They are outlined in the following table and accompanying graph

Methodology

The ranking of the production system was conducted as follows:

First, on the basis of expert interviews, a list of the 20 most suitable production systems for the coastal zone of the Mekong Delta was drafted

These 20 production systems were then rated by a group of experts according to 47 criteria in seven categories (technical, financial, economic, social, institutional, environmental and political) For each of the 20 production systems, the expert group assigned a value between 1 (not favourable) and 5 (very favourable) with regard to all 47 criteria These 940 (20x47) numbers between 1 and 5 were then weighted in order to determine the relative importance

of the criterion For instance, the profit for the farmer was weighted with the factor 3, while equipment need was weighted with the factor 1

In a next step, three production systems with less relevance for the coastal zone were excluded The remaining 17 production systems were than ranked according to their average rating

The resulting list, including the five top-performing systems, was then further discussed and validated in several discussions round with experts and decision-makers on the national and provincial level

Table 3: 47 Criteria for rating the production systems

Technical Financial Economic Social Institutional

Market access Number of

paid ment created

employ-National ganisation to support the system

or-Adaptation potential to ecological zone

MARD policy available to support the system Skills/ tech-

niques

Costs

associat-ed with duction (run- ning costs)

pro-Price of uct

Prod-Number of household that can apply the system

Extension service to support the system

Use of cals and chem- ical fertilizer (low amount|high amount)

chemi-Is the system

in the cial 5-year planning

provin-Prone to

Dis-eases

Capital quirement to start the sys- tem (fixed costs)

re-Stability of Product Price

Readiness of farmer to change the system

International organisation to support the system

Vulnerability

to weather conditions

Soil/ pond

preparation

(time need)

Credit bility

availa-Need of ket during the year (Potential

Mar-to sell the Product the whole year)

Financial sector to sup- port the system (like banks)

com-to buy ucts

Fresh water saving poten- tial

Irrigation

infrastructure

Possibility of value-adding

Soil protection potential Transport

infrastructure

Diversification potential of products

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential Electric infra-

structure

Possibility of Storage

Organic Matter Increase Po- tential Fresh water

requirement

Water tion Potential Saline water

Ranking of 17 production systems suitable for the coastal zone

Table 4: Overall performance of the 17 production systems against seven key categories

Tech-nical

cial

Finan- nomic Social

Eco- tion

Institu-Environ ron- ment

cal Total Av

Politi-1 B1 Shrimp-rice (brackish water) 3.72 3.08 3.95 3.57 3.58 3.26 4.75 25.91 3.70

2 B, S Semi-intensive and extensive shrimp 3.61 3.42 3.78 3.57 3.38 3.12 4.50 25.38 3.63

5 F,B,S Livestock (Poultry, Pig, Cattle, etc.) 3.00 3.08 3.93 3.86 2.97 3.68 3.25 23.76 3.39

6 F Rice & unsubmerged crop rotation 3.34 3.00 3.23 3.33 3.31 3.00 4.25 23.46 3.35

7 F Shrimp-rice (fresh water) 3.23 3.00 3.65 3.36 3.23 2.96 3.75 23.18 3.31

8 F,B,S

Unsubmerged2 / upland crop rotation

(Corn, Pumpkin, Soya Bean, etc.) 3.11 3.23 3.60 3.57 2.85 2.90 3.75 23.01 3.29

9 F,B,S Perennial (Fruit) crops 3.24 3.12 3.23 2.86 2.77 3.20 3.45 21.85 3.12

10 F,B,S Fish (Fresh, Brackish, and salt water) 3.22 3.23 3.68 2.71 2.54 3.20 3.25 21.83 3.12

11 S

Clam (Blood Cockle, Green Mussel, Oyster,

12 F Triple Rice (three rice crops) 3.17 2.88 3.48 2.93 3.00 2.20 3.75 21.41 3.06

13 F, B, S Vegetable (including onion) 2.93 3.31 3.50 3.07 2.31 2.82 3.25 21.19 3.03

Source: study team

The most notable outcome of the rating is that four of the five top-performing production models are suitable for the brackish and/or salt water zone This shows that salinity intrusion

is not just a threat, but also an opportunity for the Mekong Delta In many circumstances, farmers are able to earn more money with aquaculture than with rice or other crops

This reflects what is already happening in the Mekong Delta at the moment Farmers are already transitioning to aquaculture or other crops, and authorities are assisting this process – but the transformation is not easily done To ensure that the transition to production models which are adapted to the brackish or salt water zone is successful, significant investments into

1 S: suitable for salt water zone / B: suitable for brackish water zone / F: suitbale for fresh water zone

2 Unsubmerged or “upland” crops in the context of Mekong Delta, means crops grown above water – non-flooded, e.g.– maize, soyabean, water melon, groundnut, sesame, pumpkin

infrastructure, credit schemes, capacity building and strengthening the value chain are necessary These topics will be discussed in the next chapter under adoption barriers and how

to overcome them

Table 5: Ranking of alternative production systems according to water zones

Fresh water zone Brackish water zone Salt water zone

Shrimp – Rice rotation Semi-intensive & improved extensive shrimp

Mangrove Aquaculture Double Rice

Livestock

When the ranking of the production systems was discussed with provincial DARDs, the local authorities ranked the suitability of the top five production models according to their applicability in each province The result shows a clear trend towards aquaculture in Kien Giang, Ca Mau and Bac Lieu

Table 6: Ranking of alternative production systems according to DARDs

KIEN GIANG CA MAU BAC LIEU

1 Shrimp(B)-Rice rotation Semi intensive-Improved

ex-tensive shrimp Shrimp(B)-Rice rotation

2 Mangrove aquaculture Mangrove aquaculture Semi intensive-Improved

ex-tensive shrimp

3 Semi intensive-Improved

ex-tensive shrimp Shrimp(B)-Rice rotation Mangrove aquaculture

4 Livestock Double rice Double rice

5 Double rice Livestock Livestock

3.3.2 Characteristics of top-performing production models

The five top-performing production models are suitable in different circumstances and under different conditions Especially shrimp production can be differentiated between shrimp-rice, mangrove (or extensive) shrimp and different degrees of intensive shrimp farming (improved extensive, semi-intensive, intensive)

Table 7: Characteristics of different shrimp production models

Shrimp production model Suitability

Shrimp-rice Suitable for the transition from rice to shrimp when rice should not be given up completely, for instance to

ensure food security

Mangrove shrimp (extensive shrimp)

Suitable if mangrove forests shall be protected, while at the same time allowing for some economic activity within mangrove forests Suitable for organic produc-tion

Improved extensive shrimp Lower…

Shrimp-rice (brackish zone)

The alternating shrimp-rice model has expanded significantly in the Mekong Delta in recent years The Integrated Coastal Management Programme supports this trend by cooperating with four coastal provinces on improving shrimp-rice models in the coastal zone

Shrimp-rice offers significantly higher returns for farmers as compared to traditional rice ing From an economic perspective, the returns from rice farming are often insignificant within shrimp-rice-models, as a majority of returns is generated from shrimp

farm-Shrimp-rice is often seen as a good solution to cope with changing water availability During most of the year, shrimp is farmed in brackish water; during the flood season, when sufficient fresh water is available, rice is produced The rice production and the flushing of the fields cleans the plots and offers nutrients to the shrimp, which reduces the risk for diseases in shrimp and the need for chemicals targeted at reducing pest and disease

Yet, the actual reason for the growing area of shrimp-rice is that local authorities often do not allow farmers to change entirely to shrimp, but rather prefer to stay at least somewhat involved

in rice production in order to ensure food security, both on the national and on a household

lev-el It is probable that from a pure production perspective, monoculture shrimp production would be more effective

In this sense, shrimp-rice can be seen as an effective coping strategy in the face of salinity sion and as an effective tool in managing the transition from rice to aquaculture Yet it can be expected that over a longer time span of 10 to 15 years, more and more salt will accumulate in the fields so that they may become unusable for fresh water production in the future This must not be a problem for if less fresh water will be available anyways, the switch to a brackish econ-omy seems sensible

intru-Mangrove aquaculture

As land for aquaculture is sparse and mangrove forests have to be protected, Vietnamese thorities in many coastal provinces of the Mekong Delta have introduced a system in which the state offers farmers to use mangrove forests for aquaculture, as long as 60% – in some areas 70% – of the mangrove trees remain standing (the so-called 60/40 or 70/30 rule)

au-The result is a growing mangrove aquaculture industry where mangrove trees form part of the ponds in which shrimp are bred The potential benefits are high: the mangroves filter the water and offer shade, which means that the water warms less quickly, so the ponds have to be less deep which saves pumping costs Most importantly, mangrove aquaculture is extensive by na-ture, with significantly less shrimp per cubic metre and no feeding This makes mangrove aqua-culture a practice that is much more environmentally sound that conventional shrimp farming The Integrated Coastal Management Programme has supported mangrove aquaculture in vari-ous ways, especially by developing best management practices and guidelines that give farmers more orientation – for instance by showing that shrimp, crabs, blood cockle and fish can all be mixed in the same pond if their proportion is adequate, or by giving advice on feeding tech-niques that do not lessen the water quality

Yet it should be kept in mind that the reason for establishing mangrove aquaculture is not that this production model is economically more attractive than other systems, but rather that it of-fers an opportunity to preserve mangrove forests This is why mangrove aquaculture is only an option in sites where mangroves trees shall be protected (or rehabilitated) while still allowing for some economic activity If at a certain site there are no mangrove trees and there is no need from an environmental perspective to plant mangrove trees, then it would not be sensible to plant mangroves just to enable mangrove aquaculture This in turn means that mangrove aqua-culture is usually not a production model that farmers transition to from other production mod-els such as rice or intensive shrimp, as it is only a production model that farmers take up in (usually previously un-used) mangrove forests

Improved extensive shrimp, semi-intensive shrimp and intensive shrimp

Wherever farmers are allowed to produce only aquaculture (and not just shrimp-rice), and where there are no mangroves that shall be protected, farmers can decide on the intensity of their shrimp farming:

• Improved extensive shrimp farming stands for shrimp farming that is similar to grove aquaculture, but more intensive, i.e with more shrimp per cubic metre

man-• Semi-intensive shrimp farming is even more intensive, with more shrimp per cubic tre and accordingly a higher need for technical know-how and inputs

me-• Intensive shrimp farming is the most industrial approach to shrimp-farming, with most shrimp per cubic metre and the highest need for know-how and investment

Generally speaking, the more intensive the level of shrimp farming is, the higher is the cost for establishing the system, the need for technical know-how, the pressure and negative side-effects

on the environment, the risk that shrimp might die due to diseases, but also the potential nomic benefit

eco-As a consequence, farmers with little capital, little previous experience and little willingness to take a risk would more often opt for improved extensive farming, while more experienced and professional players would often opt for intensive shrimp farming Thus, the level of the intensi-

ty of shrimp farming is essentially a question of farm economics (input, return, risk)

Double rice

Double rice is a production model with a long tradition in the Mekong Delta Rice production had been and still is strongly supported by the Government of Vietnam in order to ensure food secu-rity on a national level, as well as export capacity From a farmer’s perspective, the main benefits

of double rice are that firstly the production model is usually familiar, and secondly the risk of farming rice is quite small when compared to shrimp farming which is much more prone to dis-eases

Yet double rice in the coastal zone of the Mekong Delta is facing several challenges Firstly, ers’ income from rice is much smaller than the income from shrimp farming – if the shrimp are not affected by diseases or other factors Secondly, rice farming is becoming increasingly difficult

farm-in large parts of the coastal zone due to farm-increasfarm-ing salfarm-inity farm-intrusion

This is why provinces should analyse – and are analysing already – whether and where rice duction in the coastal zone is still sensible or where it should be replaced by alternative produc-tion models

pro-In conclusion, it becomes apparent that the key alternative production system to rice production – which is often no longer feasible because of increasing salinity intrusion, and which anyways generates small returns for farmers – is aquaculture

Aquaculture can come in different forms, for instance as shrimp-rice (if some rice shall be tained for food security purposes), mangrove aquaculture (if some mangrove trees shall be pre-served for environmental purposes), improved extensive or semi-intensive shrimp (if farmer capital, know-how and/or willingness to carry a risk is low) or intensive shrimp

main-These findings confirm a trend that is evident in the coastal zone of the Mekong Delta, where aquaculture is already spreading for more than a decade

Yet still many farmers do not transition to more suitable production systems, or do transition, but without sufficient technical know-how, financial resources or market access So what are the barriers for farmers to (successfully) adopt new production models, and how can these adoption barriers be overcome? This question will be discussed in the following chapter

4 Overcoming adoption barriers

4.1 Adopting barriers

Arising from both a field survey in which a series of questions was asked relating to perceived problems with changing production systems, and field visits in July 2016 which engaged with DARD and provincial planning personnel as well as farmers, a number of key barriers to adopting new production models were identified, i.e barriers that prevent farmers to switch for instance from rice to shrimp production or to any other more suitable production model Climate change poses fundamental and significant challenges to the region, and certain factors will determine how well affected communities who are engaged in and dependent on agriculture and agri-business will adapt to changing circumstances

The following graph illustrates the most significant difficulties indicated by producers in course of the March-April 2016 field study and how these difficulties are perceived by farmers

in the coastal region

Figure 4: Most important adoption barrier when converting to new production system, as indicated by farmers (%)

Source – Project Field Survey

Technical issues and the adoption of new technology are considered to be the most important adoption barrier by more than a fifth of respondents Accordingly, over two-thirds of interview-ees expressed that they had not thought about changing systems at all and were not really pre-pared to change if at all possible Events (i.e climate change) will overtake them in due time, so

it is essential that extension and other stakeholders are involved in giving appropriate warning

of changes coming down the road with a view to prepare farmers for the inevitable

A change of production system need not be portrayed as a problem to be overcome, but as an opportunity to improve the income earning potential of the farm unit that will be supported by official and private stakeholders who have mutual interests to protect

Irrigation problems

Disease problems

Input problems

Market issues

Labour availability

Land (use) issues

Yet, as quoted during field visits, the success rate of changing from rice to aquaculture is quite variable DARD offices indicate that failure rates can vary from as low as 10% to as high as 50% This underlines the need for better preparation and briefing, as well as continued technical, managerial support from extension services, especially during the early years after establish-ment

Availability/affordability of credit comes a close second as the perceived main difficulty This was corroborated by respondents to the field survey and follow-up discussions during field vis-its Lack of affordable and accessible credit is perceived as problematic by many farmers inter-viewed, which underlines the need for adequate financial services and appropriate / affordable credit products to be made available to producers to help them transition to alternative produc-tion systems

Current credit options available from local banks have a range of credit terms in which farmers

do not seem to get any preferential treatment Farmers currently are not major users of credit for production, due to perceived complexity of banking procedures Interest rates are variable (0.69% per month for seasonal credit; 12% per year for annual credit)

For instance, one young farmer interviewed in Cu Lao Dung stated that he would like to change his current production system from taro to shrimp production in line with what his nearest neighbour had done with apparent success The reasons he quoted for not yet doing so: he was not generating enough money from his current production system to allow him to build up a fund for reinvestment in future development of his farm business Building shrimp ponds and installing the necessary equipment for aeration is quite expensive, so he does not see any pro-spect of doing so in the foreseeable future

He does not have a working relationship with any bank Even if he had, he considers the terms and conditions attached to any development loan he might contract to be far too onerous for the fledgling business to bear His DARD adviser agrees; the interest rate is too high, the term of the loan (3 years maximum) is much too short The farmer fears he could possibly lose his farm, in case of encountering problems once he had committed to changing production systems He sees

no prospect of this situation changing anytime soon He says there are many more like him in Cu Lao Dung

The terms and conditions of current credits are quite hard, especially where there are heavy establishment costs involved which requires a longer period (and harvests) to repay

To ensure affordability, and to ensure uptake of them, credit packages need to be tailored more specifically to the requirements of producers who are transitioning from traditional production systems to new ones to protect their incomes In doing so, they are embarking on a steep learn-ing and adaptation curve which requires support from financial, extension and other services Irrigation problems caused by a less than adequate system in the region come third on the respondent concern list This can be divided into two parts:

• Existing irrigation systems that need rehabilitation and upgrading to meet dynamic changes in the way water is moving through the delta region under the influence of ris-ing sea levels, changes in seasonal rainfall patterns, water and silt flows from further up-stream which is increasingly impacted by dam building, and water offtake further up-stream;

• New investment in irrigation infrastructure (at central and field level) needed to meet the changing needs of the delta as these evolve in coming years

Disease and the threat posed by disease to obtaining income from their enterprise are ceived to be significant problems In course of field visits there were anecdotes of farmers who

per-had established shrimp ponds and per-had subsequently suffered losses due to disease Some of these are no longer farming their own land This is backed up by figures quoted by DARD that as much as 63% of new entrants to aquaculture encounter severe trouble in adapting to the new and very different production system, with many of them failing

Access to reliable and affordable inputs (fertiliser, chemicals, seeds, services) is perceived as

a significant issue for producers Access to chemicals can be seen in tandem with disease control which requires expensive chemical treatments

In a largely unregulated and unmonitored situation, there is also incidence of over-use of cals which has already impacted on Vietnamese rice and shrimp exports, as reported by one rice and two shrimp processors visited Chemical over-use is a significant environmental issue in the fragile delta region

chemi-Ecological considerations open the possibility for the production and marketing of organic products which have the potential to add value to what is being produced Establishing an or-ganic sector is not a simple process, and comes at some cost for producers in terms of estab-lishment and husbandry practices There will be lower yield, but hopefully higher market prices would justify adopting organic production as the way forward

Organic production requires credible certification which needs to be properly and transparently monitored and policed so that consumers are assured of the integrity of the certification system

It is also essential that there is a viable market for organic production to ensure that organic products will attract an appropriate level of premium in the market

Market access and difficulties caused by huge price fluctuations arising from erratic supply patterns is perceived to be a significant problem for producers, but especially for “new” produc-ers of products Primary producers are price takers in the overall economy and are subject to market forces that impact negatively on them as the weakest and most vulnerable link in agri-cultural value chains As such, they are least able to promote or defend their economic interests against other stakeholders in the marketplace

Labour is seen as the last and therefore least significant problem for farmers This could cate a degree of over-employment within the rural sector which may hide a larger than reported level of unemployment in the wider economy of the region The age profile of respondents would support this, as there is a wide spread of ages among those interviewed

indi-Although the sample was small, it may be of significance that in Cu Lao Dung, one third of spondents were under the age of 35, the highest of that age group across the four coastal prov-inces