Kinh tế ngầm trong mối quan hệ với FDI, chất lượng thể chế và bất bình đẳng thu nhập Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ các nước châu Á (Luận án tiến sĩ)

Kinh tế ngầm trong mối quan hệ với FDI, chất lượng thể chế và bất bình đẳng thu nhập Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ các nước châu Á (Luận án tiến sĩ)Kinh tế ngầm trong mối quan hệ với FDI, chất lượng thể chế và bất bình đẳng thu nhập Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ các nước châu Á (Luận án tiến sĩ)Kinh tế ngầm trong mối quan hệ với FDI, chất lượng thể chế và bất bình đẳng thu nhập Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ các nước châu Á (Luận án tiến sĩ)Kinh tế ngầm trong mối quan hệ với FDI, chất lượng thể chế và bất bình đẳng thu nhập Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ các nước châu Á (Luận án tiến sĩ)Kinh tế ngầm trong mối quan hệ với FDI, chất lượng thể chế và bất bình đẳng thu nhập Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ các nước châu Á (Luận án tiến sĩ)Kinh tế ngầm trong mối quan hệ với FDI, chất lượng thể chế và bất bình đẳng thu nhập Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ các nước châu Á (Luận án tiến sĩ)Kinh tế ngầm trong mối quan hệ với FDI, chất lượng thể chế và bất bình đẳng thu nhập Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ các nước châu Á (Luận án tiến sĩ)Kinh tế ngầm trong mối quan hệ với FDI, chất lượng thể chế và bất bình đẳng thu nhập Bằng chứng thực nghiệm từ các nước châu Á (Luận án tiến sĩ)

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY

HUYNH CONG MINH

SHADOW ECONOMY IN THE RELATIONSHIP WITH FDI, INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY, AND INCOME INEQUALITY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES

PhD THESIS

Ho Chi Minh City – 2018

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY

HUYNH CONG MINH

SHADOW ECONOMY IN THE RELATIONSHIP WITH FDI, INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY, AND INCOME INEQUALITY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES

Major: Development Economics Code: 9310105

PhD THESIS

Advisors:

1 Dr Nguyen Hoang Bao

2 Dr Nguyen Vu Hong Thai

Ho Chi Minh City – 2018

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i

This thesis submitted to the School of Economics, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in development economics

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

First of all, I would like to express my great gratitude to Dr Nguyen Hoang Bao and Dr Nguyen Vu Hong Thai for their invaluable supervision and inspirations Thank you so much for keeping me on track throughout the research process, giving wise comments, advices and encouragement during such a long academic journey

Then I am honestly grateful to Dr Pham Khanh Nam, Dr Truong Dang Thuy,

Dr Le Van Chon, Dr Vo Tat Thang, Dr Vo Hong Duc, Associate Pro Dr Nguyen Huu Dung, Dr Nguyen Luu Bao Doan, Dr Pham Thi Thu Tra, Dr Pham Thi Bich Ngoc, Associate Pro Dr Vuong Duc Hoang Quan and the two independent Reviewers for their valuable comments and encouragements so that I can improve the quality of

my thesis

I cannot forget showing my special thanks to lecturers at school of economics as well as those at University of Economics HCMC such as Professor Dr Nguyen Trong Hoai, Dr Pham Khanh Nam, Dr Truong Dang Thuy, Associate Pro Dr.Nguyen Manh Hung, Dr Tran Thi Tuan Anh, Associate Pro Dr Tran Tien Khai… for their academic and practical instructions during my time of study and research at the university

Last but not least, I am deeply grateful to my beloved family, including my deceased father, my 83-year-old mother as well as my sisters and brothers who always support and encourage me in time for completing the thesis

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Declaration

Acknowledgements

Table of contents

List of Abbreviations

List of Tables

List of Figures

Pages

Chapter 1: Introduction 1

1.1 Research context and gaps 1

1.2 Research objectives 13

1.3 Research questions……… 13

1.4 Research subjects and scope 13

1.5 Research methodology and data ……… 14

1.6 Contributions 15

1.7 Limitations 17

1.8 Thesis outline 18

Chapter 2: Literature review and hypotheses 19

2.1 Shadow economy 20

2.1.1 Theories on shadow economy 20

2.1.1.1 Definition 20

2.1.1.2 Schools of thought 21

2.1.2 Empirical studies on shadow economy 31

2.1.2.1 Methods to estimate the size of the shadow economy 31

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2.1.2.2 Determinants (causes) 35

2.1.2.3 The impacts of shadow economy (effects) 40

2.2 Shadow economy, FDI and Institutional quality 44

2.2.1 FDI and institutional quality 44

2.2.1.1 Theories on FDI (Definition, Theories, Determinants) 44

2.2.1.2 Theories of institutional quality (Definition, Theories, Determinants) 47 2.2.1.3 The relationship between institutional quality and FDI 48

2.2.2 Institutional quality and shadow economy 54

2.2.2.1 The effect of institutional quality on shadow economy 55

2.2.2.2 The effect of shadow economy on institutional quality 57

2.2.3 Shadow economy and FDI 59

2.2.3.1 The effects of FDI and FDI-institutional quality interaction on shadow economy 59

2.2.3.2 The effects of shadow economy on FDI 59

2.3 Shadow economy and income inequality 61

2.3.1 Income inequality 61

2.3.1.1 Definition 61

2.3.1.2 Theories 62

2.3.1.3 Measurements 65

2.3.1.4 Determinants 66

2.3.2 The impact of shadow economy on income inequality 67

Chapter 3: Methodology, model specifications, and data 73

3.1 Analytical framework 74

3.2 Empirical models and data 77

3.3 Econometric methodology 88

3.4 The sample selection of 19 Asian countries and their backgrounds on research problems 93

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Chapter 4: Shadow economy, FDI and Institutional quality: empirical evidence from Asian

countries 96

4.1 Introduction 96

4.2 Data analysis 97

4.2.1 Data descriptive statistics 97

4.2.2 Unit-root test 99

4.2.3 Correlation analysis 101

4.3 Estimation results and discussions 102

Chapter 5: The impacts of shadow economy on income inequality in developing Asia 113

5.1 Introduction 113

5.2 Data descriptive statistics 116

5.3 Empirical results and discussions 119

Chapter 6: Conclusions and policy implications 125

6.1 Conclusions 125

6.2 Policy implications 128

6.3 Limitations and further research implications 129

List of publications 130

References 131

Appendices 158

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

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UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Labor market classification 23

Table 2.2 Structure of informal work typology 29

Table 4.1 Summary statistics 98

Table 4.2 Unit root tests for all variables 100

Table 4.3 The estimation results of the SEM by 3SLS and Two Steps System GMM 103

Table 4.4 The effect of FDI on shadow economy 110

Table 5.1 Definition and summary statistics 118

Table 5.2 Final estimation results for the impact of shadow economy on income inequality by FE and RE 120

Table 5.3 Estimation results for the impact of shadow economy on income inequality by 2 Steps SGMM 121

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Figure 1.3 Recent trends of income inequality in Asian developing countries 5

Figure 2.1 The place of institutions in the FDI determinants pattern 49

Figure 2.2 The theoretical framework for the link between shadow economy and income inequality 70

Figure 3.1 The analytical framework for the relationship among FDI, institutional quality, shadow economy and income inequality 74

Figure 5 The shadow economy and income inequality in Asian countries (1990-2015)

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

Chapter Outline

of economic growth and development (Borensztein, Gregorio, & Lee, 1998; Reichert & Weinhold, 2001; Rodrik, Subramanian, & Trebbi, 2004; Acemoglu,

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First, global foreign direct investment has significantly grown since the 1970s,

reached $1.76 trillion in 2015, fell 13% in 2016 ($1.52 trillion) and recovered in 2017; especially, developing Asia is now the largest recipient and accounts for almost one-third of total FDI inflows (UNCTAD, 2017) It is seen as the result of Asian countries

in effort to attract FDI for economic development by adopting an open door policy, governance changes & institutional innovation (Haggard, 2004; Lee, 2002) However, the positive impact of FDI on economic growth depends on the institutional quality in the host countries (Brahim & Rachdi, 2014; Jude & Levieuge, 2017) It is also Asia‘s specific concern, especially when there are many countries might be stuck in middle income trap in the region and deficient institutional quality is one of the main causes (Dollar, 2015) Figure 1.1 describes the institutional quality by 5 components (including Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, and Rule of Law) in 19 Asian

(lowest quality) to 2.5 (highest quality) In general, the institutional quality in Asian countries is low The improvement has been seen but it is a slow progress FDI has flowed into Asian countries in great amounts, but institutional quality is still

1 Including Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam

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