The northern sea route as a shipping lane

With this in mind, the author of the book, scientist and a licenced Master Marinerwith many years of professional experience, has set out to evaluate the functioning of the Northern Sea

The Northern

Sea Route as

a Shipping Lane Tadeusz Pastusiak

Expectations and Reality

The Northern Sea Route as a Shipping Lane

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016945863

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

This work is subject to copyright All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part

of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on micro films or in any other physical way, and transmission

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The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speci fic statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.

The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.

Cover illustration: Training-research vessel Horyzont II from Gdynia Maritime University at Kinnvika Polar Station, Nordaustlandet, 80 degrees North (2009) Photo by Tadeusz Pastusiak.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland

To all researchers, polar explorers, people

seamen and ancient whale and seal hunters, whose hard work and commitment has provided knowledge on navigation in the polar regions.

The exceptionally small extent of the Arctic sea ice in September 2007 was bothsurprising and spectacular, as it occurred during thefirst year of the InternationalPolar Year (2007–2009), two or three decades ahead of even the boldest scenarios.This stirred the imagination of researchers, decision-makers, politicians and—most

of all—journalists, who started to write about the Arctic became open to navigation

in just a few years Another historic record for the minimum ice extent of 3.39million km2 in the Arctic Ocean was observed in 2012 (with the average 6.22million km2for 1981–2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center—NSIDC data) Expectations to open a regular shipping between Western Europe andEastern Asia soared After all, the route is shorter by 25–40 % than the route leadingthrough the Suez Canal It is bound to be profitable!

There is no doubt that reduction of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean has acceleratedrecently Moreover, it stimulates the process of climate warming in the region andthe northern hemisphere A dramatic difference between the albedo of sea ice (80–

90 %) and open sea water (c 10 %), which means that the latter is intensivelyheated by solar radiation The absence of sea ice at the beginning of winter results

in lack of an insulation layer between the warmer ocean water and cold air.Additionally, huge amounts of the latent heat of freezing are released into theatmosphere when the ocean freezes over This contributes to air warming and thusstimulates atmospheric circulation over the Arctic In turn, ice cover undergoesmore intensive mechanical disintegration All these processes are parts of thepositive feedback between the reduction of sea ice cover and climate warming

A phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification is developing

As a consequence, one expects the Arctic become easily navigable in summer It

is not, however, fully viable On the well-pronounced trend of diminishing of thesea ice cover, interannual variability is superimposed and may exceed±25 %.Thefirst mentions of the Northeast and Northwest Passages being free of ice atthe same time appeared in 2008, based on the NSIDC satellite data In 2010, twosailing yachts—the Russian “Peter I” and the Norwegian trimaran “NorthernPassage”—circumnavigated the Arctic Ocean They sailed through both Northeast

vii

and Northwest Passages in one season, becoming thefirst sailboats ever to do thiswith no icebreaker assistance It is worth to note the overall extent of ice cover wasnot exceptionally small in the summer season of 2010 The ice was favourablydistributed The skipper of the SY“Peter I”, Daniil Gavrilov, informed the mediathat they sailed through heavy icefloes for approximately one-third of their Arcticvoyage (c 3000 nautical miles) The most difficult stage of the cruise was near theTaimyr Peninsula, where the yacht had tofind a way through close drift ice.This kind of information along with the data on year-to-year and geographicalvariability of sea ice extent indicates that there is no guarantee that merchant shipscruises along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will be successfully completed Apartfrom this uncertainty, there are also political, economic, technical, environmentaland safety issues to be kept in mind, as indicated in the Arctic Council reports (e.g.The Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment) On such, sketched above background,appear not new but vital questions Will it be possible to conduct regular shippingoperations on the NSR? If so, when?

These and many other questions are addressed by Dr Tadeusz Pastusiak—ascientist, academic lecturer and Master Mariner—in his book

Ifirst met the author several years ago during a voyage to Spitsbergen on theM/S“Horyzont II”, a training research vessel of Gdynia Maritime University whichbrings supplies to the Polish Polar Station located on the shore of the HornsundFjord, southern Spitsbergen, the Arctic In the years 2009–2010, Dr Pastusiak hasled three consecutive voyages to Svalbard on MS“Horyzont II” as the captain Themost important and challenging of them was a supply voyage for the internationalIPY expedition to the old Swedish-Finnish-Swiss Kinvikka Station located on theisland of Nordauslandet, north-eastern Svalbard, in 2009 The station was con-structed in 1957 and re-activated for the IPY Even though the voyage and dis-embarkation of equipment on almost unknown and uncharted Arctic waters inchangeable weather and ice conditions was a serious challenge for the captain, crewand the expedition team, the expedition turned out to be very successful

I know that, Tadeusz Pastusiak from his childhood was fascinated by what could

be found under the surface of the sea He was especially interested in nature, scubadiving and underwater photography As a teenager, he constructed his ownequipment and tested it Later, following in his father’s footsteps, he began to work

at sea His fascination with polar regions stemmed from his participation in thehistoric for Poland expedition on the M/S“Antoni Garnuszewski”, an expeditionwhose aim was to build an Antarctic research station on King George Island in thearchipelago of the South Shetland Islands in 1977 Together with other students

of the Gdynia Maritime University, Tadeusz Pastusiak spent three months helping

to conduct scientific observations and working on construction of the researchstation The station was named after Henryk Arctowski, a Polish researcher andmember of the scientific team of the famous Belgian Antarctic Expedition on theR/V “Belgica” (1897–1899) Their ship was trapped in ice and was the first towinter in the Antarctic In 1979, Dr Pastusiak took part in a supply voyage to thePolish Polar Station on Spitsbergen, the Arctic, and another voyage to theArctowski Station

Afterwards, while working on merchant vessels in the Barents Sea and Canadianwaters, he became more familiar with sea ice and navigational conditions inNorthern Seas His scientific interest in the Arctic Ocean, therefore, is anything butrandom It derives from his passion and life motto, which is “explore theunexplored”.

Dr Pastusiak has been working for many years as a lecturer at the Faculty ofNavigation of the Gdynia Maritime University He has published eighteen originalscientific papers and two textbooks for students As a co-worker of the Centre forPolar Studies, University of Silesia he also takes part in scientific projects We haverecently been cooperating in studies of marine conditions for the process of icebergcalving from glaciers calving in Spitsbergen

It is my pleasure to see this book by Dr Tadeusz Pastusiak completed as result

of his scientific inquisitiveness, professional scrupulousness and Master Marinerexperience gained since 1997 The book combines information on environmentalfeatures, climatic and ice conditions crucial from the point of view of navigationwith practical information on transport and maritime infrastructure and technicaland economic factors affecting navigation on the Northern Sea Route The author’sambition was to demonstrate what conditions must be met in order to maximise theuse of vessels with low ice classes and without ice strengthening for transit voyagesand cargo shipping to ports located along the Northern Sea Route

The book will surely prove useful to seamen, sailors, researchers and students aswell as ship operators and—most importantly—decision-makers having to planvoyages and to organise regular shipping operations I am glad that the Centre forPolar Studies could assist in the preparation of such a significant publication

Prof Dr Jacek A JaniaPresident, Committee on Polar ResearchPolish Academy of Sciences and HeadCentre for Polar Studies, University of Silesia

Climate changes which have been taking place in the Arctic in recent years have led

to a reduction in the extent and thickness of sea ice This has resulted in anextension of the navigation season for all vessels, including those with low iceclasses or even without ice strengthening The prospect of being able to shorten theroute between Europe and the Far East by following the Northern Sea Route instead

of the route leading through the Suez Canal and regions in danger of terrorism isattracting more and more interest As a result, it is quite understandable that muchemotion is being excited by the information noise in the mass media and statementsreleased by politicians and officials claiming that the Arctic Ocean will be com-pletely free of ice during the summer season or that the NSR will in the near future

be used as a shipping lane throughout the year Such statements, however, do notseem to be well founded, as they are based on the optimistic results of IPCC climatemodels and totally disregard the more pessimistic results

With this in mind, the author of the book, scientist and a licenced Master Marinerwith many years of professional experience, has set out to evaluate the functioning

of the Northern Sea Route as part of the maritime shipping lane between the ports ofEurope and the Far East This evaluation has been conducted for two time horizons:contemporary and future (until the year 2050 inclusive) The book is based on theauthor’s Ph.D thesis modified and enhanced for the publication

The author has systematised the available knowledge and opinions concerningthe role of the NSR among other sea and land transport routes in terms of envi-ronmental conditions (including the bathymetry of the Russian Arctic seas), cli-matic and hydrological conditions as well as technical conditions which must bemet by vessels navigating on the NSR and their capability to navigate through ice.One of the most difficult tasks of decision-makers is making decisions about thefuture In order to facilitate this task, the author of this publication has systematisedthe knowledge and opinions regarding climate changes and the resulting changes inthe extent of ice cover in the Russian Arctic His analysis of future changes in icecover based on IPCC models made it possible to determine navigational prospects

on the NSR within particular time frames for vessels with different ice-navigation

xi

capabilities His simulation of voyage planning and its realisation based onup-to-date real data on the state of ice cover (obtained by means of remote sensingsatellites) and taking into account the economy of maritime shipping in ice is inaccordance with the results of climate change and ice cover change analysis based

on IPCC models

First and foremost this book is aimed at government decision-makers andcommercial companies faced with the dilemma whether to engage in trade orshipping on the Northern Sea Route, when and what actions to take, and what range

of uncertainty to take into account when making important long-term decisions.The book is also aimed at general and vocational education institutions, whichinstruct new generations of seamen and engineers considering working in polarregions or for the needs of polar navigation

Gdynia, Poland Tadeusz Pastusiak

The book is based on my Ph.D thesis I specially want to thank Prof Dr AnnaStyszyńska, supervisor of this thesis for very good guidance and help I wish toacknowledge valuable suggestions of Prof Dr Andrzej A Marsz

The idea to publish my thesis came out from the reviewers: Prof Jacek A Jania,President of Committee on Polar Research, Polish Academy of Sciences and Head,Centre for Polar Studies, University of Silesia and Prof Dr Tadeusz Palmowski,Head of the Department of Geography of Regional Development, Faculty ofOceanography and Geography, University of Gdańsk Restarting my research in thefar north after the completion of work on board merchant vessels would not bepossible without the help and support of Prof Dr Piotr Głowacki, Institute ofGeophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences I extend to them my deepest appreciationfor their suggestions I wish to thank Barabara Jóźwiak for improving the use ofEnglish in the manuscript

The publication of the book would not be possible without the kind permission

of the authors and copyright holders of publications: National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information,National Snow and Ice Data Center, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,ESIMO, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Nordic Centre for SpatialDevelopment, MAN Diesel and Turbo, Springer Science+Business Media B.V andElsevier B.V

I extend my gratitude to Prof Dr Jacek A Jania for overall help, Dr VasilySmolyanitsky, Chair of WMO/IOC JCOMM Expert Team on Sea Ice, Head ofLaboratory of Sea Ice Climate Manuals, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St.Petersburg, Russian Federation, Konstantin Palnikov, Russian Federation, Claes L.Ragner, Head of Administration and Information, Fridtjof Nansen Institute,Lysaker, Norway, Nils Andreassen, Executive Director Institute of the North,Anchorage, Alaska, Joao M Rodrigues, Department of Applied Mathematics andTheoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, United Kungdom and to ZygmuntKowalik, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska inFairbanks,

xiii

This book could not have been written and designed without the support andassistance of many people and organisations to whom I would like to express mywarmest thanks Preparation for publication of this book was supported by theCentre for Polar Studies, University of Silesia—the leading national research centre

in earth sciences—Sosnowiec, Poland

To all authors and publishers who kindly granted permission to publish trations and other materials, I express my sincere gratitude

illus-I wish to express special thanks to my closest family for acquiescence of myscientific work and understanding during long time I spent on the book

Part I The Northern Sea Route in Global Shipping and History

1 Introduction 3

1.1 Purpose and Scope of the Book 4

1.2 Sea Route and Its Specifics 9

1.3 Shipping Routes of the World 12

1.4 Shipping Routes of the Russian Arctic 14

1.5 Specificity of the Northern Sea Route as a Shipping Lane 19

References 24

2 A Brief History of Navigation on the Northern Sea Route 27

2.1 The Beginnings of Cargo Shipping on the Northern Sea Route 28

2.2 The Period of the Second World War 29

2.3 Shipping on the Northern Sea Route After the Second World War 30

2.4 Creation of Legal Amenities for International Traffic on the Northern Sea Route 32

2.5 The Use of the Northern Sea Route for International Traffic 34

References 36

Part II Environmental Conditions—Bathymetry, Climate and Hydrology 3 Environmental Conditions Affecting the Use of the Northern Sea Route as a Shipping Lane 41

3.1 Bathymetric Conditions of the Russian Arctic Seas 42

3.2 Climatic Conditions of the Russian Arctic Seas and Their Implications for Navigation on the Northern Sea Route 44

3.2.1 Air Temperature 45

3.2.2 Wind 48

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3.2.3 Fog and Horizontal Visibility 53

3.2.4 Vessel Icing 55

3.3 Hydrological Conditions of the Russian Arctic Seas and Their Implications for Navigation on the Northern Sea Route 58

3.3.1 Sea Water Temperature 59

3.3.2 Salinity and Density of Sea Water 62

3.3.3 Waves 63

3.3.4 Fluctuations of Water Levels and Tides 64

3.3.5 Marine Currents 67

References 68

4 Sea Ice Occurring on the Seas of the Russian Arctic and Its Impact on Navigating the Northern Sea Route 71

4.1 Sea Ice Characteristics Affecting the Safety and Navigation of Vessels on the Northern Sea Route 72

4.1.1 Concentration and Thickness of the Ice 72

4.1.2 Horizontal Dimensions of Ice Floes 73

4.1.3 Ice Under Pressure, Ridged Ice and Hummocked Ice 73

4.1.4 A Vessel’s Ability to Overcome Ice 74

4.2 Mean Ice Conditions on the Seas of the Russian Arctic 76

4.2.1 Changes in Ice Cover 76

4.2.2 Drift of Ice 79

4.2.3 Changes in Ice Cover Concentration 81

4.2.4 Ice Massifs 82

4.2.5 Ice Cover Thickness 83

4.2.6 Thickness of Snow on Ice 84

4.2.7 Ice Decay 85

4.3 Long-Term Variability of Ice Cover on Seas of the Russian Arctic 85

4.3.1 The Barents Sea 86

4.3.2 The Kara Sea 86

4.3.3 The Laptev Sea 88

4.3.4 The East Siberian Sea 89

4.3.5 The Chukchi Sea 91

4.3.6 The Bering Sea 92

4.3.7 Length of Ice-Free Season 92

4.4 Long-Term Variability of the Ice-Free Season on the Seas of the Russian Arctic 95

References 98

Part III Technical Conditions—Vessels, Infrastructure, Routes

and Nodal Points

5 Technical Conditions Affecting the Use of the Northern

Sea Route as a Shipping Lane 103

5.1 Technical Requirements Placed on Vessels Using the Northern Sea Route 104

5.1.1 Ice Class and Polar Class Vessels 105

5.1.2 Propulsion Power and Fuel Consumption 106

5.1.3 Vessel Speed in Ice 111

5.2 Transport and Navigation Infrastructure on the Northern Sea Route 112

5.2.1 Location of Ports 112

5.2.2 Fuel Provisions and Ship Repairs 121

5.2.3 Emergency Preparedness and Rescue 122

5.2.4 Navigation Infrastructure Along the Route 123

5.2.5 Availability of Charts, Nautical Publications and Information on Current Ice and Hydrometeorological Conditions 125

References 128

6 Variants of the Northern Sea Route 131

6.1 Route Location 134

6.1.1 Transit Routes 135

6.1.2 Route Recommendations for Particular Seas 136

6.2 Narrow Passages—Nodal Points of the Northern Sea Route 146

References 150

Part IV Current and Future Accessibility of the Northern Sea Route—Expectations and Reality 7 Route Selection on the Northern Sea Route Under Continuously Changing Ice Conditions 155

7.1 Principles of Route Selection During the Navigation Season 156

7.2 Routing of a Vessel on the Northern Sea Route in Real Ice Conditions 161

7.2.1 Selection of Bathymetric Maps and Ice Maps for the Simulation 161

7.2.2 Parameters of the Vessel Selected for the Simulation 164

7.2.3 Voyage Cost 166

7.2.4 Simulation Procedure for Voyage Planning and Plan Implementation Monitoring 168

7.3 Inception of Regular Shipping on the Northern Sea Route 177

References 178

8 The Possibility of Using the Northern Sea Route in the Light

of Climate Change Scenarios 181

References 192

9 Summary and Conclusions 195

Appendix A 201

Appendix B 207

Appendix C 211

Index—English 215

Index—Russian 219

AANII AAHИИ, Apктичecкий и aнтapктичecкий

нayчнo-иccлeдoвaтeльcкий инcтитyт (English: Arctic and AntarcticResearch Institute, or AARI)

AARI Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (Russian: AANII)ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

ACSYS Arctic Climate System Study

AGW Anthropogenic Global Warming

AMAP Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme

AMSR-E Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer

ARCOP Arctic Operational Platform

AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

CMRDI Central Marine Research and Design Institute

COADS Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set

CT Concentration Total

DGPS Differential Global Positioning System

DMSP OLS Defense Meteorological Satellite Program—Operational Linescan

SystemDNV Det Norske Veritas

DWT Deadweight

ECDIS Electronic Chart Display and Information System

ECS Electronic Chart System

ENVISAT Environmental Satellite

ERSST Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature

ESIMO ECИMO, Eдинaя Cиcтeмa Инфopмaции oб oбcтaнoвкe в

Mиpoвoм Oкeaнe (English: Unified State System of Information

on the Global Ocean)FSICR Finnish-Swedish Ice Class Rules

GCM Global Climate Model Data Archive

xix

GEBCO General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans

GLONASS Global Navigation System

GMDSS Global Maritime Distress and Safety System

GPS Global Positioning System

GUNiO ГУHиO, Глaвнoe Упpaвлeниe Haвигaции и Oкeaнoгpaфии

(English: Head Department of Navigation and Oceanography, orHDNO)

HFO Heavy Fuel Oil

IABP International Arctic Buoy Programme

IASC International Arctic Science Committee

IBCAO International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean

IFO Intermediate Fuel Oil

IHO International Hydrographic Organization

IMO Intergovernmental Maritime Organisation

INSROP International Northern Sea Route Programme

IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

IISS International Institute for Strategic Studies

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRI/LDEO International Research Institute for Climate Prediction

ISM International Safety Management Code

KMZ Zipped KML (Keyhole Markup Language)files

LASH Lighter Aboard Ship

LNG Liquid Natural Gas

L1 (LU1) Ice Class L1 (Russian:лeдoвoe ycилeниe клacca Л1, or ЛУ1)L2 (LU2) Ice Class L1 (Russian:лeдoвoe ycилeниe клacca Л2, or ЛУ2)LBP Length Between Perpendiculars

LOA Length Over All

MANICE Manual of Ice, or Manual of Standard Procedures for Observing

and Reporting Ice ConditionsMDO Motor Diesel Oil

METAREA Metrological Area

MIZ Marginal Ice Zone

MSL Mean Sea Level

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NAVTEX Navigational Text Messages

NCDC National Climatic Data Center

NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction

NEP Northeast Passage

NGDC National Geophysical Data Center

NIC National Ice Center

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOC National Oceanography Centre, United Kingdom

NSIDC National Snow and Ice Data Center

NSR Northern Sea Route

NWP Northwest Passage

OGIMET Open Software Servicio de Información Meteorológica (English:

Open Software Weather Information Service)

OW Open Water

PC Polar Class

PNAS Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United

States of AmericaPRIP ПPИП, Пpибpeжныe Пpeдyпpeждeния (English: Navigational

Warnings for Coastal Waters of the Russian Federation)PRS Polish Register of Shipping

PSU Practical Salinity Unit

RACON Radar Beacon

RADARSAT Radar satellite system equipped with a powerful synthetic aperture

radar (SAR)RCP Representative Concentration Pathway

RIHMI-WDC Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information—

World Data CenterRoshydromet The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental

Monitoring of RussiaSafetyNET Inmarsat-C’s Enhanced Group Call (EGC) system

SMCR Specified Maximum Continuous Rating

SMMR Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer

RMRS Russian Maritime Register of Shipping

SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

SSM/I Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSMI)

SST Sea Surface Temperature

TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit

UKHO United Kingdom Hydrographic Office

UL Ice Class UL (Russian: ycилeниe лeдoвыe клacca УЛ)

ULA Ice Class ULA (Russian: ycилeниe лeдoвыe клacca УЛA)UNiO УHиO, Упpaвлeниe Haвигaции и Oкeaнoгpaфии (English:

Department of Navigation and Oceanography)USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

UTC Universal Time Clock

WMO World Meteorological Organization

CB Block coefficient

CH Price of HFO type fuel [USD/tonne]

CP Charter rate [USD/day]

cm Centimetre (unit of distance, thickness, depth)

di Length of route segment i [NM]

E Direction East

Ei Extent of ice cover with index

ENE Direction East North-East

ESE Direction East South-East

K Overall voyage cost [USD]

KL Coefficient of the ability to break through ice

km Kilometre (unit of distance)

kn Knot (unit of speed)

m/s Metre per second (unit of speed)

m Metre (unit of distance)

NM Nautical mile (unit of distance)

N Direction North

NE Direction North-East

NNE Direction North North-East

NNW Direction North North-West

SSE Direction South South-East

SSW Direction South South-West

SW Direction South-West

xxiii

V Vessel speed [knots]

Vi Vessel speed on route segment i [knots]

W Direction West

WNW Direction West North-west

Zi Daily HFO type fuel consumption on route segment i [tonnes/day]

Figure 1.1 Shipping lanes presented against the factors which

determined the way they were mapped out Compiled by

the author Made with Natural Earth—Free vector and

raster map data @naturalearthdata.com Equal distances

from the Port of Rotterdam: green dashed line for routes

through the Suez Canal, yellow dashed line for routes

through the Panama Canal, purple dashed line for routes

across the Atlantic Ocean, blue dashed line for routes

through the NEP, red dashed line for routes through the

NWP, thick arrow routes following favourable winds, thin

arrow seasonal routes following favourable winds in

monsoon regions, green line region of the world reached

through the Suez Canal, yellow line region of the world

reached through the Panama Canal Distribution of main

shipping lanes in the first half of the twentieth century

determined by the existence of the Suez and Panama

Canals: green dotted line through the Suez Canal, yellow

dotted line through the Panama Canal Routes becoming

more accessible due to global warming: blue dotted line

through the NEP; red dotted line through the NWP 13Figure 1.2 All major shipping routes presented on map of number of

oxygen observations in 1994–1998 (Fig 5.A.1 from

Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis

Working Group I contribution to the fourth assessment

report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

[Solomon, S., D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis,

K.B Averyt, M Tignor and H.L Miller (eds.)]

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom

and New York, NY, USA) 15

xxv

Figure 1.3 Transport routes and human settlements in the Arctic

(from NORDREGIO, source ArcticData Portal, ESRI

Data 2011, Analysis and design: J Sterling;http://www

nordregio.se/Maps

–Graphs/06-Transport/Transports-routes-in-the-Arctic/, accessed 05 May 2014) 16Figure 1.4 The Northern Sea Route juxtaposed with other transport

routes: marine lanes, rivers and railways Marked source

areas of cargo for NSR Export: 1 hydrocarbons, 2 ferrous

metals, 3 mineral fertilizers, 4 timber, 6 coal Import:

7 food stuffs Modified by author from Hong (2012) 18Figure 1.5 Changes in the sea ice cover in the Arctic for July and

August (a) and for September and October (b) in the years

1979–2013 (source National Snow and Ice Data Center,

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/, accessed

5 May 2014) 22Figure 1.6 Ice concentration changes in the Russian Arctic

on 1 September in the years 2008–2015 according to the

AARI, St Petersburg, Russia (source ESIMOhttp://www

aari.ru/projects/ecimo/index.php?im=500/, accessed

7 May 2016) 23Figure 2.1 The number of vessels transiting the NSR in the years

2007–2013 (according to Balmasov 2011a, b, 2012,

2013) 32Figure 3.1 The seas of the Russian Arctic (red solid line limits of the

seas according to IHO (1953), red dot line limits of the

seas according to working document only (IHO 2002),

Compiled by the author Made with Natural Earth free

vector and raster map data @

http://www.naturalearthdata.com.) 42Figure 3.2 Depth distribution in the Russian Arctic seas A fragment

of an IBCAO map from 2012 (Jakobsson et al 2012) 43Figure 3.3 Location of meteorological stations along the NSR

Compiled by the author based on GUNiO

(1998a, b, 1999, 2006a, 2009); RIHMI-WDC and

OGIMET Compiled by the author Made with Natural

Earth—Free vector and raster map data @http://www

naturalearthdata.com 47Figure 3.4 Range of variability in average monthly air temperature in

the period between 1988 and 2013 at stations located

along the NSR Compiled by the author based on GUNiO

(1998a, b, 1999, 2006a, 2009); RIHMI-WDC and

OGIMET (Pastusiak and Styszyńska 2015) 49

Figure 3.5 Sea surface temperature distribution (°C) in summer

according to NOAA/NCEI (Boyer et al 2012,https://

www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/regional_climate/arctic/,

accessed 28 Apr 2016; see also Seidov et al 2015) 58Figure 3.6 Centres of grid cell 2° 2° for which changes in sea

surface temperature were analysed (blue dots points of

reference, red solid line limits of the seas according to IHO

(1953), red dot line limits of the seas according to working

document only (IHO 2002), Compiled by the author

Made with Natural Earth—Free vector and raster map data

@http://www.naturalearthdata.com) 60Figure 3.7 Spatial distribution of surface water salinity in summer

according to NOAA/NCEI (Boyer et al 2012,https://

www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/regional_climate/arctic/,

accessed 28 Apr 2016; see also see also

Seidov et al 2015) 63Figure 3.8 Co-tidal lines of semi-diurnal tide heights (cm) in the

Arctic Ocean (Kowalik 1981; Compiled by the author

Made with Natural Earth—Free vector and raster map data

@http://www.naturalearthdata.com) 66Figure 4.1 Average dates of ice cover formation (From: Remote

Sensing of Sea Ice in the Northern Sea Route, Part of the

series Springer Praxis Books pp 25–64, Sea ice conditions

in the Arctic and in the Northern Sea Route, Professor

Ola M Johannessen, Dr Vitaly Yu Alexandrov, Professor

Ivan Ye Frolov, Professor Stein Sandven,

Mr Lasse H Pettersson, Dr Leonid P Bobylev,

Mr Kjell Kloster, Dr Vladimir G Smirnov,

Dr Yevgeny U Mironov, Mr Nikolay G Babich© Praxis

Publishing Ltd Chichester, UK, 2007, Fig 2.8,

doi:10.1007/978-3-540-48840-8, Print ISBN

978-3-540-24448-6, Online ISBN 978-3-540-48840-8

With permission of Springer) 76Figure 4.2 Melt onset dates in average 1979–2000 and 2012:

aNational Snow and Ice Data Center, https://nsidc.org/

arcticseaicenews/2009/07/ Accessed 28 Apr 2016;

bNational Snow and Ice Data Center, http://nsidc.org/

arcticseaicenews/2014/07/melting-in-the-north-freezing-in-the-south/ Accessed 28 Apr 2016 78

Figure 4.3 General directions of the drift of ice on the seas of the

Russian Arctic: 1—drift in the Transpolar Drift Stream,

2—drift in the Beaufort Gyre, 3—drift in regional and

local directions (From: Russian Arctic Seas, Navigational

conditions and accidents, Chapter 1, Common Features

of the Russian Arctic Seas, page 7, Fig 1, 2012, Nataliya

Marchenko© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012,

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-22125-5, Print ISBN

978-3-642-22124-8, Online ISBN 978-3-642-22125-5

With permission of Springer) 79Figure 4.4 Areas covered by fast ice and polynyas during the winter

season: 1 Northern Novaya Zemlya, 2 East Novaya

Zemlya, 3 Yamal, 4 Ob-Yenisey, 5 Central Kara,

6 Severnaya Zemlya, 7 Taymyr, 8 Lena, 9 New Siberian,

10 Ayon, 11 Chukotka Glade (From: Russian Arctic Seas,

Navigational conditions and accidents, Chapter 1,

Common Features of the Russian Arctic Seas, page 6,

Fig 1.3, 2012, Nataliya Marchenko© Springer-Verlag

Berlin Heidelberg 2012, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-22125-5,

Print ISBN 978-3-642-22124-8, Online ISBN

978-3-642-22125-5 With permission of Springer) 81Figure 4.5 Ice massifs: 1 Novaya Zemlya, 2 Northern Kara,

3 Severnaya Zemlya, 4 Taymyr, 5 Yana, 6 New Siberian,

7 Ayon, 8 Wrangel, 9 Northern Chukotka Glade

(From: Russian Arctic Seas, Navigational conditions and

accidents, Chapter 1, Common Features of the Russian

Arctic Seas, page 5, Fig 1.2, 2012, Nataliya Marchenko

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012,

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-22125-5, Print ISBN

978-3-642-22124-8, Online ISBN 978-3-642-22125-5

With permission of Springer) 82Figure 4.6 Mean distribution of ice of various ages at the end of the

freezing period Scale: Fast ice; Young ice, 10–30 cm;

Thin first-year ice, 30–70 cm; Medium first-year ice,

70–120 cm; Thick first-year ice, 120 cm; Multi-year ice

(From: Remote Sensing of Sea Ice in the Northern Sea

Route, Part of the series Springer Praxis Books pp 25–64,

Sea ice conditions in the Arctic and in the Northern Sea

Route, Professor Ola M Johannessen, Dr Vitaly

Yu Alexandrov, Professor Ivan Ye Frolov, Professor

Stein Sandven, Mr Lasse H Pettersson,

Dr Leonid P Bobylev, Mr Kjell Kloster, Dr Vladimir

G Smirnov, Dr Yevgeny U Mironov, Mr Nikolay

G Babich© Praxis Publishing Ltd Chichester, UK, 2007,

Fig 2.12, doi:10.1007/978-3-540-48840-8, Print ISBN

978-3-540-24448-6, Online ISBN 978-3-540-48840-8

With permission of Springer 83Figure 4.7 Changes in the monthly mean of the ice extent on the

Barents Sea during the navigation season, from July (E07)

to November (E11) in 1979–2013 (Pastusiak et al 2014)

The grey areas indicate the ice extent at its minimum

expansion 86Figure 4.8 Changes in the monthly mean of the ice extent on the Kara

Sea during the navigation season, from July (E07) to

November (E11) in 1979–2013 (Pastusiak et al 2014)

The grey areas indicate the ice extent at its minimum

expansion 87Figure 4.9 Changes in the monthly mean of the ice extent on the

Laptev Sea during the navigation season, from July (E07)

to November (E11) in 1979–2013 (Pastusiak et al 2014)

The grey areas indicate the ice extent at its minimum

expansion 88Figure 4.10 Changes in the monthly mean of the ice extent on the East

Siberian Sea during the navigation season, from July (E07)

to November (E11) in 1979–2013 (Pastusiak et al 2014)

The grey areas indicate the ice extent at its minimum

expansion 89Figure 4.11 Changes in the monthly mean of the ice extent on the

Chukchi Sea during the navigation season, from July

(E07) to November (E11) in 1979–2013 (Pastusiak et al

2014) The grey areas indicate the ice extent at its

minimum expansion 91Figure 4.12 Changes in the monthly mean of the ice extent on the

Bering Sea during the navigation season, from July (E07)

to November (E11) in 1979–2013 (Pastusiak et al 2014)

The grey areas indicate the ice extent at its minimum

expansion 92Figure 4.13 Changes in the number of ice-free days for the seas in

relation to the regions of the NSR from 1979 to 2013 with

a linear function approximation Compiled by the author

based on data from Rodrigues (2009) for 1979–2008 and

data of the author for 2008–2013 96

Figure 4.14 Changes in the number of ice-free days for the seas in

particular regions of the NSR from 1979 to 2013, with a

polynomial function approximation of the third degree

Compiled by the author based on data from Rodrigues

(2009) for 1979–2008 and data of the author (Pastusiak

et al 2014) for 2008–2013 97Figure 5.1 Comparison of propulsion power of tankers (Axis Y) not

designed and designed for ice navigation: a tankers

designed for navigation outside ice-covered areas,

btankers designed for navigation in ice (MAN Diesel &

Turbo,http://marine.man.eu/docs/librariesprovider6/

technical-papers/propulsion-trends-in-tankers.pdf?sfvrsn=

20 Accessed 28 April 2016) 109Figure 5.2 Location of ports and harbours along the NSR according

to Ragner (2000) 113Figure 5.3 Location of ports mentioned on the official NSR website

and new ports (UNiO 2007; Northern Sea Route

Information Office,http://www.arctic-lio.com/arcticports

Accessed 30 Jan 2014) and new terminals Compiled by

the author Made with Natural Earth—Free vector and

raster map data @naturalearthdata.com) 114Figure 5.4 Rescue stations (RS) and icebreaker bases (IB) on the NSR

in the year 2013 In green—LNG terminals under

construction Compiled by the author based on various

sources Made with Natural Earth—Free vector and raster

map data @naturalearthdata.com 122Figure 6.1 A chart of route variants recommended for the winter

season from November till May Compiled by the author

based on Baskin et al (1998) Made with Natural

Earth—Free vector and raster map data @http://www

naturalearthdata.com); solid line recommended route, dot

line edge of fast ice 132Figure 6.2 A chart of route variants recommended for the summer

season from June till October Compiled by the author

based on Baskin et al (1998) Location of ice massifs

according to Marchenko (2012) Made with Natural

Earth—Free vector and raster map data @

http://www.naturalearthdata.com); solid line

recommended route, black spot ice massif 132Figure 6.3 Research work and new recommended route variants

of the NSR (Palnikov 2013) 133

Figure 6.4 Basic route variants for the NSR (From: Russian Arctic

Seas, Navigational conditions and accidents, Chap 1,

Common Features of the Russian Arctic Seas, page 9,

Fig 1.5, 2012, Nataliya Marchenko© Springer-Verlag

Berlin Heidelberg 2012, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-22125-5,

Print ISBN 978-3-642-22124-8, Online ISBN

978-3-642-22125-5 With permission of Springer) 134Figure 6.5 ESIMO route recommendations for the crossing of the

Kara Sea: a coastal, b sea (middle), c and d northern; and

main points on the routes: 1 Kara Gate Strait, 2 Lyamchina

Bay, 3 Cape Kharasavey, 4 Dikson, 5 Minina Skerries,

6 Vilkitsky Strait, 7 Cape Chelyuskin, 8 Cape Zhelaniya,

9 Bely Island Dotted line marks the borders of the sea’s

eastern and western parts Compiled by the author based

on Marchenko (2012) Base map from Jakobsson et al

(2012) 137Figure 6.6 ESIMO route recommendations for the crossing of the

Laptev Sea: a coastal, b sea (middle), c northern; and main

points on the routes: 1 Vilkitsky Strait, 2 Cape Kosisty,

3 Tiksi, 4 Muostakh Island, 5 Dmitry Laptev Strait,

6 Sannikov Strait Dotted line marks the borders of the

sea’s eastern and western parts Compiled by the author

based on Marchenko (2012) Base map from Jakobsson

et al (2012) 137Figure 6.7 ESIMO route recommendations for the crossing

of the East Siberian Sea and main points on the routes:

1 Sannikov Strait, 2 Dmitry Laptev Strait, 3 Kolyma Gulf,

4 Ambarchik, 5 Ayon Island, 6 Cape Shelagsky, 7 Pevek,

8 Cape Billings, 9 De Long Strait, 10 Wrangel Island

Dotted line marks the borders of the sea’s eastern and

western parts Compiled by the author based on

Marchenko (2012) Base map from Jakobsson et al

(2012) 138Figure 6.8 ESIMO route recommendations for the crossing of the

Chukchi Sea and main points on the routes: 1 Wrangel

Island, 2 De Long Strait, 3 Cape Billings, 4 Cape Schmidt,

5 Kolyuchin Bay, 6 Cape Serdtse-Kamen, 7 Bering Strait

Dotted line marks the borders of the sea’s north-eastern

and south-western parts Compiled by the author based on

Marchenko (2012) Base map from Jakobsson et al

(2012) 139

Figure 6.9 Route variants in the area of Novaya Zemlya, the

Yugorsky Shar Strait and the Kara Gate Strait Compiled

by the author based on GUNiO (1998a) Base map from

IBCAO Jakobsson et al (2012) 140Figure 6.10 NSR route variants in the region of Severnaya Zemlya

Compiled by the author based on GUNiO (1998a and

2009) Base map from Jakobsson et al (2012) 140Figure 6.11 NSR route variants in the region of the New Siberian

Islands Compiled by the author based on GUNiO (1998b)

and Tschudi (2011) Base map from Jakobsson et al

(2012) 141Figure 6.12 Route variants in the region of Wrangel Island Compiled

by the author based on GUNiO (1999) Base map from

Jakobsson et al (2012) 141Figure 7.1 Route grid for the crossing of the NSR on the basis of

IBCAO chart (Mercator projection) Blue points Ordinary

points of the route; red points Decision points of the route

Compiled by the author Base map from Jakobsson et al

(2012) 159Figure 7.2 Route grid for the crossing of the NSR on the basis of

IBCAO chart (polar stereographic projection) Blue points

Ordinary points of the route; red points Decision points

of the route Compiled by the author Base map from

Jakobsson et al (2012) 160Figure 7.3 MIZ ice concentration map in KMZ format visualised by

means of: a the Global Mapper software b Google Earth

software Compiled by the author based on MIZ sea

ice concentration maps in KMZ format (NATICE,http://

www.natice.noaa.gov/products/kml_daily.html) Provided

courtesy of the U.S National Ice Center 162Figure 7.4 Ice extent medians for the years 1981–2010 (yellow) and

drift ice extent in September (grey) in the years 2006–2011

in the Arctic Ocean Compiled by the author based

on Fetterer et al (2002) Made with Natural

Earth—Free vector and raster map data

@http://naturalearthdata.com 169Figure 7.5 Preliminary route selection based on standard routes and

ice extent maps from recent years Marked in grey is the

ice extent median for September in the years 1981–2010

Compiled by the author Made with Natural Earth—Free

vector and raster map data @naturalearthdata.com 171

Figure 7.6 Ice conditions requiring a decision as to route variant

selection in September 2012 Compiled by the author

based on MIZ sea ice concentration maps in KMZ format

Provided courtesy of the U.S National Ice Center Base

map from Jakobsson et al (2012) 174Figure 7.7 Algorithm for route planning and monitoring the

implementation of the plan in changing ice conditions

without icebreaker assistance Compiled by the author 175Figure 8.1 Scenarios of Anomalies in global average surface air

temperature (a) and spatial distribution of changes

compared with the years 1986–2005 (b) according to the

RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 (IPCC 2013) Figure TS.15 from

stocker, T.F, D Qin, G.-K Plattner, l.V Alexander,

S.K Allen, N.l Bindoff, F.-M Bréon, J.A Church,

U Cubasch, S Emori, P Forster, P Friedlingstein,

N Gillett, J.M Gregory, D.L Hartmann, E Jansen,

B Kirtman, R Knutti, K Krishna Kumar, P Lemke,

J Marotzke, V Masson-Delmotte, G.A Meehl, I.I

Mokhov, S Piao, V Ramaswamy, D Randall, M Rhein,

M Rojas, C Sabine, D Shindell, l.D Talley, D.G

Vaughan and S.-P Xie, 2013: Technical summary In:

Climate change 2013: The physical science basis

Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment

report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

[Stocker, T.F., D Qin, G.-K Plattner, M Tignor,

S.K Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex

and P.M Midgley (eds.)] Cambridge University Press,

Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA 184Figure 8.2 Maps of temperature changes in the years 2016–2035

compared with the years 1986–2006 according to the RCP

4.5 scenario for the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of

CMIP5 distribution for June and August (IPCC 2013)

Figure AI.13 from IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of global

and regional climate projections [Van Oldenborgh,

G.J., M Collins, J Arblaster, J.H Christensen,

J Marotzke, S.B Power, M Rummukainen and T Zhou

(eds.)] In: Climate change 2013: The physical science

basis Contribution of working group I to the fifth

assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on

climate change [Stocker, T.F., D Qin, G.-K Plattner,

M Tignor, S.K Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia,

V Bex and P.M Midgley (eds.)] Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY,

USA 185

Figure 8.3 Scenarios regarding changes in the extent of ice cover in

the Arctic (IPCC 2013) Figure 12.28 from Collins, M.,

R Knutti, J Arblaster, J.-l Dufresne, T Fichefet,

P Friedlingstein, X Gao, W.J Gutowski, T Johns,

G Krinner, M Shongwe, C Tebaldi, A.J Weaver and M

Wehner, 2013: Long-term climate change: Projections,

commitments and irreversibility In: Climate change 2013:

The physical science basis Contribution of working

Group I to the fifth assessment report of the

intergovernmental panel on climate change [Stocker, T.F.,

D Qin, G.-K Plattner, M Tignor, S.K Allen,

J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex and P.M Midgley

(eds.)] Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United

Kingdom and New York, NY, USA 185Figure 8.4 Projected duration of the navigation season over the

Northern Sea Route; Black solid line From satellite data

and model simulations using A1B scenario Blue solid

lines Means of the selected best models Blue dot lines

Inter-model standard deviation Orange line and shaded

area All model-ensemble mean and the inter-model

standard deviation (From Fig 4, Climatic Change, June

2010, Volume 100, Issue 3, pp 757–768, First online: 10

October 2009, Perspectives of Northern Sea Route and

Northwest Passage in the twenty-first century, Authors:

V C Khon, I I Mokhov, M Latif, V A Semenov,

W Park© Springer Science + Business Media B.V 2009,

doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9683-2, Print ISSN 0165-0009,

Online ISSN 1573–1480 With permission of Springer) 187Figure 8.5 The range of the possible ice extent in September

according to SRES AR4 models for the years

1979–1999 Marked in pink is the extent of ice in

September 1989; marked in blue is the possible extent of

ice according to SRES AR4 models; red dashed line

shows the approximate maximum ice extent according to

SRES AR4 models; red dotted line shows the approximate

minimum ice extent according to SRES AR4 models

Compiled by the author based on Fetterer et al (2002)

Made with Natural Earth—Free vector and raster map data

@http://www.naturalearthdata.com 188

Figure 8.6 Optimum routes for September designated on the basis of

seven GCM climate change models: a prediction for RCP

4.5 for the years 2006–2015; b prediction for RCP 4.5 for

the years 2040–2059; c prediction for RCP 8.5 for the

years 2006–2015; d prediction for RCP 8.5 for the years

2040–2059; red vessels with the high PC6 ice class

designed for ice-breaking; blue vessels with medium ice

classes or with no ice class (From Smith and Stephenson

2013) 190Figure A.1 Route grid for the crossing of the NSR (western part) on

the basis of IBCAO chart of Jakobsson et al (2012)

(polar stereographic projection) Blue points—ordinary

points of the route; red points—decision points of the

route Compiled by the author 205Figure A.2 Route grid for the crossing of the NSR (eastern part) on

the basis of IBCAO chart of Jakobsson et al (2012)

(polar stereographic projection) Blue points—ordinary

points of the route; red points—decision points of the

route Compiled by the author 206

List of Tables

Table 1.1 Comparison of distance and duration of marine transit

between Europe and the Far East via the Northern Sea Route

and via the Suez Canal 19Table 1.2 Characteristics of NSR transit voyages completed by

selected vessels in 2010–2013 (Balmasov 2011, 2012, 2013;

www.arctic-lio.com/nsr_transits, accessed 28 Feb 2014) 21Table 3.1 Average monthly air temperature (°C) at selected

meteorological stations located along the NSR in the years

1936–1987 (according to GUNiO 1998a, b, 1999, 2006a,

2009)—top value; and in the years 1988–2013 (according to

RIHMI-WDC and OGIMET)—bottom value 46Table 3.2 Trend coefficients (°C/year) and their statistical significance

(p) for average monthly air temperature in the period

between 1988 and 2013 Compiled by the author based on

GUNiO (1998a, b, 1999, 2006a, 2009); RIHMI-WDC and

OGIMET (Pastusiak and Styszyńska 2015) 48Table 3.3 Average monthly wind speed (m/s) at selected stations along

the NSR in the years 1936–1987 (according to GUNiO

1998a, b, 1999, 2006a, 2009—Pastusiak and Styszyńska

2015) 51Table 3.4 The average number of days with wind speed  15 m/s at

selected stations along the NSR in the years 1936–1987

(according to GUNiO 1998a, b, 1999, 2006a,

2009—Pastusiak and Styszyńska 2015) 51Table 3.5 The average number of foggy days at selected stations

located along the NSR in the years 1936–1987 (according to

GUNiO 1998a, b, 1999, 2006a, 2009) 54

xxxvii

Table 3.6 The average number of days with snowstorms or blizzards at

selected stations along the NSR in the years 1936–1987

(according to GUNiO1998a, b, 1999, 2006a, 2009) 55Table 3.7 Probability (%) of slow, fast and very fast vessel icing on the

NSR in September and October (according to GUNiO

1998a, b, 1999, 2009) 57Table 3.8 The average monthly SST in the years 1979–2013 and in the

decades 1984–1993, 1994–2003 and 2004–2013 for seven

grid cells located on the NSR 61Table 3.9 Information regarding tides along the NSR 66Table 4.1 Vessel capabilities for overcoming ice (compiled by author

on basis of Dremlyug 1974; Gotsky 1961; Petrov 1955);

A—vessels with ice-strengthening, B—vessels without

ice-strengthening) 74Table 4.2 Earliest (2), mean (3) and latest (4) dates for the onset of drift

ice; earliest (5), mean (6) and latest (7) dates for the onset of

fast ice formation; earliest (8), mean (9) and latest (10) dates

for fast ice disappearance; earliest (11), mean (12) and latest

(13) dates for drift ice disappearance, GUNiO 1998b, 1999,

2009) 77Table 4.3 Changes to the ice extent on the Northern Sea Route during

the navigation season, July to November, and the

approximate risk involved in sailing a given basin in a given

month for vessels undertaking the route alone

(Pastusiak et al 2014) 93Table 5.1 Technical determinants—ice and polar classes—unassisted,

ice and ice-free navigation 107Table 5.2 Fuel and lubricating oil consumption for Norilsk SA-15 type

vessels (Mulherin et al 1996; Sodhi 1995) 110Table 5.3 Functional significance of NSR ports in terms of providing

for the needs of transit voyages 121Table 6.1 Basic parameters of narrow passages on the NSR Compiled

by the author based on Mulherin (1996) and IBCAO map

(Jakobsson 2012) 146Table 7.1 Parameters of Norilsk SA-15 type vessel used in the Arctic

Compiled by the author based on Kitagawa (2001) 164Table 7.2 Fuel and lubricating oil consumption for Norilsk SA-15 type

vessels (Sodhi 1995) 165Table 7.3 Simulation results of the planning and monitoring process

of the voyage from Murmansk to the Port of Provideniya

Compiled by the author 175

Table A.1 A description of route segments taking into account a

simplified depth scale based on IBCAO chart of Jakobsson

et al (2012) 202Table B.1 Results of the simulation carried out along recommended

routes 208Table C.1 Results of the simulation carried out in the lightest ice

conditions 212

The Northern Sea Route in Global

Shipping and History

Chapter 1

Introduction

Abstract This chapter introduces the reader to the issue of shipping lanes It pointsout that climate changes which have been taking place in the Arctic in recent yearshave led to a reduction in the extent of sea ice and its thickness as well as anextension of the navigation season for all vessels, including those with low iceclasses or without ice strengthening The prospect of being able to shorten the routebetween Europe and the Far East using the Northern Sea Route as a permanentshipping lane is attracting more and more interest The information noise in theform of TV programmes and statements released by politicians and officials on theuse of the NSR does not seem to be well founded The fundamental purpose of thisbook is, therefore, to determine the kind of navigation possible on the NSR Will it

be seasonal or all-year-round? If seasonal, how long will the season be? Whatvessels will be able to navigate in the area? Will the NSR be completely or onlypartially free of ice? Will it be possible to conduct liner shipping according to astrict time schedule? Will ice conditions impeding navigation on the NSR bepredictable and—if so—to what extent? In order to answer the above questions, theauthor provides a precise definition of the term “navigation season”, which thereader will repeatedly come across in subsequent chapters Another issue addressed

in this chapter is the issue of vessels used on the NSR Are these to be vessels with astandard structure and a standard main engine power, which are relatively inex-pensive to construct and operate and hence competitive on the market in ice-freeregions, or should they rather be vessels with medium and high ice classes, whichmake it possible to extend the navigation season or even to conduct shippingoperations throughout the year, but which cannot compete on the market in ice-freeregions? The main aim of the book is to evaluate the functioning of the NSR as part

of the maritime shipping lane connecting the ports of Europe with those of the FarEast The evaluation is conducted for two time-frames: contemporary and future(until the year 2050 inclusive) In order to transport, i.e move cargo and passengersfrom place to place, three things are required: means of transport, transportinfrastructure and the skills necessary to use the first two elements Transportinfrastructure consists of ports, harbours, transshipping points and communicationlines Skills to do with managing and controlling vessel traffic are crucial to ensure

an appropriate level of safety and economic efficiency The above elements are

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

T Pastusiak, The Northern Sea Route as a Shipping Lane,

DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-41834-6_1

3

thoroughly analysed in subsequent chapters Next, the author systematises andclarifies terms connected with the concept of a shipping lane, from both a historicaland functional point of view He discusses factors affecting the choice of a route to

be followed to the port of destination He also juxtaposes physical distances,voyage duration and the overall cost of shipping along the NSR, via the Suez Canaland the Trans-Siberian Railway What is pointed out is that vessel speed andvoyage duration on the NSR are highly unpredictable The chapter also includes adiscussion of ice cover changes from the point of view of the past 30, 20 and

7 years, ice conditions existing in the seas of the Russian Arctic and affecting therealisation of shipping voyages, and the duration of the navigation season onselected segments of the NSR

Climatic changes recorded in the Arctic within the past several years have led to aconsiderable reduction in the extent and thickness of sea ice and to the extension ofthe navigation season As a result, they made it possible for merchant ships,including vessels with lower ice classes, to cross the Northern Sea Route(NSR) relatively quickly and cheaply In this respect, the past several years havebeen very promising The number of vessels which cross the NSR successfully isgrowing, but the fact remains that the number as well as the amount of cargo movedalong the route constitute a mere fraction of the overall ship traffic and cargotonnage moved between Europe and the Far East

Being able to use the NSR as a permanent marine shipping lane would bringenormous benefits to trade between Europe and the Far East, which is why the use

of the NSR is now a major topic, especially infinancial circles and among cians, freight forwarders and ship operators Another reason behind the interest inthe NSR as a marine shipping lane is the possibility of using it to transporthydrocarbons and other natural resources currently extracted in the Arctic Just asimportant is the possibility of using the NSR to transport resources from knowndeposits in northern Russia, which are not currently being used for lack of validtransport options This last point may cause significant changes in the prices of arange of natural resources in global markets Particular interest in the use of theNSR is shown by the European Union, which recognises the lane’s growth pro-spects and takes it into account in its development plans

politi-Not all is clear, however, when it comes to using the NSR as a shipping lane.First of all, there is considerable information noise Much of what is said on thetopic (especially by politicians and European Union officials) does not appear to bewell thought out and far-reaching plans are devised based on very uncertaininformation A crucial role in generating the noise is played by the mass media

One example of the above-mentioned information noise is the aftermath of thespeech delivered by Dr Wiesław Masłowski1

on BBC Radio Based on the stantial drop in the extent of sea ice in the Arctic observed in August and September

sub-of 2007, in December 2007 Dr Masłowski formulated a theory which suggestedthat the Arctic would be totally ice-free as soon as the summer season of 2013 Healso claimed that from 2013 on, during the warm periods, sea ice on the surface ofArctic seas would almost entirely disappear This information, passed on to BBCRadio reporters,2made the headlines around the world As a result, politicians andbusinessmen took it almost for granted that all the seas of the Arctic would soon beopen to unimpeded navigation and pinned their hopes on the idea Unfortunately, in

2011—faced with smaller changes to the extent of sea ice in the Arctic and newmodelling results—Dr Masłowski postponed the predicted occurrence of anice-free Arctic till the summer of 2016,±3 years Once again the information madethe headlines and was followed by hundreds of TV programmes and newspaperarticles3discussing both the issue of global warming and the immediate prospectfor shipping growth in the Arctic Another consequence of Dr Masłowski’s speechwas that out of all the results of IPCC climate models, it was the “optimistic”models—the models that projected complete disappearance of ice cover in theArctic as early as around 2045 (AMSA2009)—that started to be seen as correct.The results of the“pessimistic” models were rejected

Bearing in mind that officials and politicians obtain information about climatechange from the mass media, it is hard to expect of them informed opinions on thefuture use of the NSR This lack of expertise, however, does not stop them fromformulating theories about the necessity of safeguarding national and corporateinterest while using the NSR Such theories drive the mass media, which inviteexperts and“experts” to voice their opinions on the issue of the NSR, as a result ofwhich the information noise grows louder and louder It is a general belief that theNorthern Sea Route is—or will soon become—a shipping lane of vital importance.These claims should be treated with considerable caution The most fundamentalissue for the use of the NSR as a shipping lane is the current and futurehydro-climatic conditions on the entire route It is them that will determine howrealistic the use of the NSR actually is

One of the key points here is to explain what kind of shipping operations will bepossible on the NSR Is it going to be seasonal shipping carried out only within thenavigation season or year-long shipping? If it is seasonal (see Zaleski1978), how long

is the navigation season going to be? Are the vessels going to move along the entireroute in ice-free conditions or should they expect partial ice cover in some areas?

1 Dr Wies ław Masłowski graduated in Oceanography from the University of Gdańsk, Poland He

is currently research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, USA, and one of the most competent specialists in terms of predicting changes to sea ice cover (see also Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wieslaw_Maslowski ).

These issues—insignificant though they may seem to journalists, officials andpoliticians—determine the likelihood of the NSR functioning as a shipping lane andits position in the global hierarchy of marine shipping lanes With the navigationseason of 2–4 months, it is impossible to transport the estimated amount of cargo(20–35 % of global container shipping; Laulajainen2009) If vessels come acrossfloating ice, it is hard to expect unimpeded navigation within the planned travel time.Let us now clarify the term navigation season It refers to a period beginning andending on specified opening and closing dates (The St Lawrence SeawayManagement Corporation 2016) It is an annual period designated by theCorporation and the Authority, that is appropriate to weather and ice conditions orvessel traffic demands, during which the Seaway is open for navigation (Office ofThe Federal Register1999) Navigation season is commonly used to indicate thenumber of days per year when there are easily navigable ice conditions, depending

on operational definitions (Johannessen et al 2007) Generally speaking, the termnavigation season is defined in a variety of ways, depending on the particularcontext in which it is used The term season is sometimes substituted by theequivalent term period Another expression commonly found in literature is sum-mer and winter navigation season Kitagawa (2001) distinguishes two main seasons

on the NSR: the traditional navigational season (summer) and the extended season.The latter comprises autumn, winter and spring, after the traditional season is over.Another term used in this publication as an equivalent of navigation season isshipping season The length of the navigation season on the NSR depends onadopted conditions (Kitagawa 2001) The conditions refer to vessels that areminimally ice-capable and can only navigate through ice of a given concentration:

25, 50, 75 % of open water (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2005) For vesselswhich are not ice-strengthened or for the lightest sea ice conditions the term ice-freenavigation season is used ACIA (2005) defines the term as 15 % open waterconditions, when—in fact—it means just the opposite: 15 % of ice and 85 % ofice-free sea surface (Rodrigues2008,2009) Arikaynen and Tsubakov (1987) usethe term without icebreaker period to specify opening and closing dates of thisperiod for various types of ice-strengthened vessels Another term seen as syn-onymous with ice-free navigation season is independent navigation period oftransport vessel in ice used by Kitagawa (2001) In this book, the term navigationseason is used to express this concept

As far as regular shipping services are concerned, current organization andtechnology of marine transportation require a schedule not unlike a train schedule

A ship (a huge container ship, for example) which takes on cargo from a terminalmust arrive at and depart from a wharf at a designated time and there is only up to

an hour’s leeway when it comes to loading Later the ship, having covered sands of nautical miles during anything from a few to over twenty days, mustfollow just as strict a schedule while unloading This kind of transportation bringsgreatest profits The same is true of bulk cargo transportation, including oil