Petrakis (ed ) a new growth model for the greek economy; requirements for long term sustainability (2016)

He is the author of more than 26 monographs, the latest published with Palgrave Macmillan and Springer, in topics related to European and Greek growth, crisis, labor market, economic po

A NEW

GROWTH

MODEL FOR THE GREEK ECONOMY

REQUIREMENTS FOR

LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITYEDITED BY PANAGIOTIS E PETRAKIS

A New Growth Model for the Greek Economy

Panagiotis E Petrakis Editor

A New Growth

Model for the Greek

Economy Requirements for Long-Term Sustainability

ISBN 978-1-137-58943-9 ISBN 978-1-137-58944-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/978-1-137-58944-6

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016952427

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016

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Editor

Panagiotis E Petrakis

National Kapodistrian University of Athens

Athens , Greece

David Amiel graduated in economics from the École Normale Supérieure and

Paris School of Economics He is also a former Procter Fellow from Princeton University

David Benček is an economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and

member of its Economic Policy Center His current research focuses on debt tainability, the political economy of institutional change and the application of agent-based computational models

Zsolt Darvas is a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, at the

Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and at the Corvinus University of Budapest Before joining Bruegel in 2008, he worked for the Argenta Financial Research Group in Budapest and the Central Bank of Hungary

Evaggelos Drimpetas is an associate professor in the Department of Economic

Sciences, Democritus University of Thrace, Greece His work has appeared in ous scientifi c journals and international conferences His research interests are on

vari-fi nancial economics, merger and acquisitions, strategic management, corporate governance and international fi nancial markets

George Geronikolaou holds a PhD in economics from Aristotle University of

Thessaloniki and is currently appointed as a lecturer in Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics He has published in refereed journals in the areas of industrial organization and fi nancial economics

Michael Haliassos holds the chair for macroeconomics and fi nance at Goethe

University Frankfurt He is founding director of the CEPR Network on Household Finance, is consultant to ECB and ESMA, has been founding director of SAFE, director of CFS for six years and member of the Greek National Council on Research and Technology (ESET)

LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS—SHORT BIOS

vi LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS—SHORT BIOS

Edward Hugh was a macroeconomist He died on 29 December 2015 He

stud-ied economics at the London School of Economics in the late 1960s before going

on to do master’s and doctoral studies in Manchester He was an expert on the impact of demographic change and migratory processes on economic growth

Paul-Adrien Hyppolite is an Arthur Sachs Fellow at Harvard University (Department of Economics) and graduate student from École Normale Supérieure and École Polytechnique (France) He has previously worked at the French Treasury, at the European Commission and inside Lazard’s Sovereign Advisory Group His research interests focus on international macroeconomics and fi nance

Alina Hyz is a Professor of Business Administration at the Department of Accounting and Finance, Technological Educational Institute (TEI) of Piraeus, Greece She holds a PhD in business administration from the University of Lodz Her research interests are focused on business analysis, strategy development, bud- geting and fi nance

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs and the Claude

and Lore Kelly Professor of European Studies at Princeton University He was

educated at Cambridge University His books include The German Slump (1986); The End of Globalization: Lessons from the Great Depression (2001); and Making the European Monetary Union (2012)

Kyriaki I.  Kafka is an economist and a PhD candidate in economics at the

UADPhilEcon Program of the NKUA. In 2011 she joined the Research Committee

of the NKUA and works as a scientifi c partner in the Vocational Distance Training Center of the NKUA. She is the author of several international publications

Christos Katris is a PhD candidate at the University of Patras He holds a BSc in

statistics from Athens University of Economics and Business and an M.Sc in tistics and operations research from the University of Patras His research interests include time series, forecasting and applied econometrics

Konstantinos Konstantakis is a research and teaching associate in economics and

econometrics working in the areas of business cycles, applied economics and

trans-portation His articles have appeared in a number of journals, including European Journal of Operational Research , Transportation Research Part E , Open Economies Review and Economic Modelling

Kostas Karamanis is Assistant Professor of Economics at the Department of

Accounting and Finance of Epirus’ Technological Educational Institute, Greece

He received his doctorate in business reengineering from the University of Patras From October 2002 until January 2011, he worked in the Greek Ministry of Employment His main research interests lie in the areas of labor economics, busi- ness economics, competition and market deregulation

LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS—SHORT BIOS vii

Pantelis C.  Kostis is an economist and a PhD candidate in economics at the

UADPhilEcon Program of the NKUA.  Since 2008 he is associated with the Research Committee of the NKUA and works as a scientifi c partner in the Vocational Distance Training Center of the NKUA.  He is the author of several international publications

Effrosyni Kouskouna is a fellow of the Greek Society of Actuaries (FHAS) and a

member of IAA.  She holds an MSc degree in “Statistical Methods in the Management of Insurance Organizations” from the Athens University of Economics and Business and a BSc in mathematics from the University of Athens She has over 20 years of experience in the insurance market, and from 2009, she works for the NAA

Alexander Kritikos is research director at the DIW Berlin At the same time, he

is full professor for industrial and institutional economics at the University of Potsdam and a research fellow at the IZA Bonn His research interests are innova- tion and entrepreneurship research, and experimental and behavioral economics

Claus-Friedrich Laaser is a senior economist at the Kiel Institute for the World

Economy He is member of the institute’s policy coordination unit His current research topics are trade integration in the EU and the role of infrastructure in the course of economic integration

Themistokles Lazarides currently works as an assistant professor in the Business

Administration Department, TEI of Western Macedonia, Grevena His research interests focus on corporate governance, fi nancial markets, organizational eco- nomics and information asymmetry His work has appeared in various journals and international conferences

Paolo Manasse is Professor of Macroeconomics at Bologna University, having

taught at Bocconi, Sorbonne, JHU.  He was a Consultant for the OECD, the World Bank, the IADB and the IMF. In 2011 and 2015 he addressed the European Parliament He is an author of many international publications

Panayotis Michaelides is Associate Professor of Economics and Econometrics

working on business cycles, infrastructure economics, Bayesian econometrics and

history of economic thought He has published in Cambridge Journal of Economics , Journal of Evolutionary Economics , European Journal of Operational Research , Transportation Research Part E , Energy Policy , and so on He is in the top 10 % of

the most productive and downloaded authors globally

Eirini Ozouni studied economics in University of Ioannina, obtaining also a

master’s degree Currently, she is completing her doctorate in the School of Economics and Political Sciences in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, studying economic growth cycles Her experience in research has also been acquired during her professional activity in development consulting

viii LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS—SHORT BIOS

Sotiris K.  Papaioannou is a research fellow at the Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE) He received his PhD from the Athens University of Economics and Business His current research focuses on the infl uences of regula- tions on productivity as well as on the impact of fi scal policy on growth

Panagiotis E. Petrakis is Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics

of the University of Athens (NKUA), where he also serves as the Director of the International Economics and Development Sector He is the author of more than

26 monographs, the latest published with Palgrave Macmillan and Springer, in topics related to European and Greek growth, crisis, labor market, economic pol- icy and future entrepreneurship He also is the author of numerous (more than 75)

research articles in journals such as Small Business Economics , Journal of Banking and Finance , Journal of Business Research , Journal of Socio-Economics , International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal , and so on

Thomas Poufi nas is a lecturer in the Department of Economics of the Democritus

University of Thrace He holds a PhD in fi nancial mathematics from the Ohio State University and a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from the University of Athens His research interests are focused on fi nance, investments, risk manage- ment, actuarial science and their applications

Klaus Schrader is a senior economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy

He is deputy head of the institute’s Economic Policy Center His present research focuses on EU trade integration and the international competitiveness of South and Eastern European countries

Eleftherios Spyromitros holds a PhD in economics from the University of Strasbourg He currently serves as an assistant professor in Democritus University

of Thrace, Department of Economics His work has been published in refereed journals in the areas of monetary and fi nancial economics

Alessio Terzi is an affi liate fellow at Bruegel Prior to this, he has worked for the

ECB, DG ECFIN (European Commission), the Scottish Parliament and BMI Research (Fitch Group) Alessio holds a degree in economics from Bocconi University and a master’s in economic policy from the London School of Economics

Panagiotis Tsintzos has been currently appointed as a lecturer in Democritus

University of Thrace, Department of Economics He holds a PhD in Macroeconomics and has published in international journals in the area of eco- nomic growth, fi scal policy and monetary institutional design He has served as an advisor in Greek Public Administration

Efthymios Tsionas is Professor of Economics and Econometrics working in the

areas of productivity and effi ciency analysis, fi nancial econometrics and Bayesian

techniques His articles have appeared in various journals, including Review of

LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS—SHORT BIOS ix

Economic Studies , Journal of the American Statistical Association , Journal of Econometrics and European Journal of Operational Research

Dionysis G.  Valsamis is an economist and PhD candidate in economics at the

UADPhilEcon Program of the NKUA.  Since 2011 he is associated with the Research Committee of the NKUA and works as a scientifi c partner in the Vocational Distance Training Center of the NKUA.  He is the author of several international publications

Randall L Wray is Professor of Economics at Bard College and senior scholar at

the Levy Economics Institute He is coeditor of the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics and his most recent book is Why Minsky Matters: An Introduction to the Work of a Maverick Economist (Princeton University Press, 2016)

Grigoris Zarotiadis studied in Johannes Kepler University of Linz Currently, he

is an associate professor in the School of Economics and Political Sciences in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki His research covers the fi elds of international economics, economic development and growth

I would like to express my gratitude to the many contributors who ported me through this book; to all those who provided support, talked things over, read, wrote, offered comments, allowed me to quote their remarks and assisted in the editing and proofreading

Furthermore, I would like to thank all the parties—more precisely the scientifi c and the organizing committee—that contributed in realizing the international conference entitled “A New Growth Model for the Greek Economy” which took place in Athens, Greece, on June 3, 2015, since the present edited volume gathers the most interesting contributions presented in that conference Also, I would like to thank all those that attended the conference and provided their comments on the papers that were presented

Last but not least, I would like to thank Ms Sarah Lawrence for enabling me to publish this book and for her expertise, as well as Ms Allison Neuburger for her technical assistance in the book production

I would like to thank both of them for their overall collaboration and patience

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

3 The Greek Growth Decoupling 33

Pantelis C Kostis , Kyriaki I Kafka , and Dionysis G Valsamis

Part II On the Greek Growth Model 59

4 Is Greece Destined to Grow? 61

xiv CONTENTS

7 Requirements for a New Business Model in Greece 99

Klaus Schrader , David Benček , and Claus-Friedrich Laaser

8 Is There an Easy Way Out? Redenomination Issues and 

Their Financial Consequences in Case of a Greek Exit

David Amiel and Paul-Adrien Hyppolite

9 Extroversion Within a New Economic Paradigm 141

Grigoris Zarotiadis and Eirini Ozouni

Part III Structural Changes and Labor Markets 155

10 Qualifying and Quantifying the Greek Structural

13 Rearranging Social Security Contributions: Alleviating

the Burden of the State and Returning Value to the State

Thomas Poufi nas and Effrosyni Kouskouna

14 Okun’s Law in Greece in the Post-Crisis Era:

Christos Katris

CONTENTS xv

15 The Infl uence of Flexible Working on Unemployment:

Evidence from the Greek Labor Market 235

Kostas Karamanis and Alina Hyz

16 Jobs Not Growth: An Alternative Path for Development 251

Randall Wray

Part IV Macroeconomic Evolution and Export Performance 263

17 The Determinants of Economic Fluctuations in Greece:

An Empirical Investigation (1995–2014) 265

Konstantinos Konstantakis , Panayotis Michaelides ,

and Efthymios Tsionas

18 Fiscal Multipliers and Growth in the Greek Economy:

An Assessment of the Recent Fiscal Adjustment Program 275

Sotiris K Papaioannou

19 The Impact of Sovereign Debt Ratings and Financial

Performance on Bank Ratings 289

Evaggelos Drimpetas and Themistokles Lazarides

20 What Drives Greek Exports Performance? A Macrolevel

George Geronikolaou , Eleftherios Spyromitros ,

and Panagiotis Tsintzos

Index 315

Fig 3.1 Index of the macroeconomic environment (From now on

we will refer to the Baltic countries as a single economy

called “the Baltics,” calculating all data presented as a weighted average of the three economies (Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania)

Fig 3.3 Gross fi xed capital formation and fi nal consumption

Fig 3.12 Lack of trust in European institutions 49 Fig 4.1 GDP at constant prices (2009 = 100), 2009–2014 62 Fig 4.2 World Bank ease of doing business ranking, 2006–2015 63 Fig 4.3 OECD index of strictness of employment protection,

2000–2013 64 Fig 4.4 Unit labour cost developments (2000Q1 = 100),

2000Q1–2015Q1 65 Fig 4.5 Exports at current prices (2008Q1 = 100),

2008Q1–2015Q1 66 Fig 4.6 Exports of goods by type (2008 = 100), 2008–2014 67 Fig 4.7 Share of tradable sector in private sector (%), 2000Q1–2015Q1 68

LIST OF FIGURES

xviii LIST OF FIGURES

Fig 4.8 Composition of the tradable sector (% share in private sector),

2014Q4 69 Fig 4.9 Employment (2000Q1 = 100), 2000Q1–2015Q1 69 Fig 5.1 Real effective exchange rates (2000Q1 = 100) 76

Fig 6.1 Change in unit labor cost competitiveness since 1999Q1,

Fig 6.2 The composition of household net wealth at the start

Fig 7.1 Greek top 10 commodity exports 2013 and 2014 105 Fig 7.2 Development of debt path projections 2010–2022 108 Fig 8.1 Breakdown of the Greek net foreign asset position (% of GDP) 122 Fig 8.2 Evolution of outstanding private marketable debt of Greek

companies on international capital markets (EUR mn) by

residence versus nationality of the issuer 123 Fig 8.3 Decomposition of the Eurosystem collateral pool of Greek

core banks (end of February 2015, % of total collateral) 134 Fig 10.1 Breakdown of conditionality by reform headings 160 Fig 10.2 Breakdown of conditionality by implementation record 162 Fig 10.3 Number of reforms implemented by review 163 Fig 10.4 Composition of implemented reforms in the fi rst Greek

Fig 10.5 Composition of implemented reforms in the second Greek

Fig 10.6 Composition of implemented reforms in the Portuguese

Fig 10.7 General government breakdown, by programme 169 Fig 11.1 Innovation performance and corruption 176 Fig 13.1 Funded pension investments as a percentage

Fig 15.2 Comparison of fl exible working and unemployment in Greece 245 Fig 15.3 Comparison of fl exible working and

Fig 17.1 Actual versus fi tted values of GDP cycle 269 Fig 17.2 Actual versus fi tted values plot, 2005 (Q3)–2011(Q4) 271 Fig 18.1 Contribution of public spending shocks to GDP growth 282 Fig 18.2 Contribution of tax shocks to GDP growth 282 Fig 18.3 Contribution of public spending shocks to private investment 283 Fig 18.4 Contribution of a billion euro public spending shock to

employment 284 Fig 18.5 Contribution of a billion euro tax shock to employment 284 Fig 20.1 The evolution of unit labor costs and long-term interest

Table 7.1 Sectoral employment structure in Greece 2014 101 Table 8.1 Grexit exposure by institutional sectors according to the

Table 8.2 Evaluation of the “Grexit” cost for the non-fi nancial sector 125 Table 8.3 Immediate capital needs of banks following the

redenomination of assets and liabilities 127 Table 8.4 Insolvency issues for Greek banks following a Grexit?—Full

Table 8.5 Market database—Greek tradable public debt 132 Table 8.6 Central government debt composition as of end

Table 8.7 Expected losses of the Bank of Greece (BoG) in case of

Table 8.8 Summary of Grexit’s immediate fi nancial cost for the

Greek private sector and the central bank (Bank

Table 11.1 Share of selected economic activities of gross value added

in percent and distribution of labor force in the manufacturing industry depending on fi rm size in percent 174 Table 11.2 Information on fi nal consumption, export ratios 175 Table 11.3 Information on product market regulations represented by

xx LIST OF TABLES

Table 15.1 Evolution of fl exible working in Greece (2000–2013) 242 Table 15.2 New job contracts by type (2009–2013) 243 Table 15.3 Employment and unemployment in Greece

2005Q3–2011Q4 270

Table 18.2 Cumulative fi scal multipliers (continued) 281

Table 20.1 Results for Eurozone and non-Eurozone countries 312

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016

P.E Petrakis (ed.), A New Growth Model for the Greek Economy,

DOI 10.1057/978-1-137-58944-6_1

CHAPTER 1

1.1 THE TIMING AND SUBJECT OF THE CONFERENCE

The present edited volume gathers the most interesting contributions sented at the international conference entitled “A New Growth Model for the Greek Economy” which took place in Athens, Greece, on June 3, 2015 The conference occurred during the most turbulent periods of Greece’s postwar economic history As the left wing government of Greece came into confl ict with Europe’s government institutions, it was fi nally decided that Greece would remain in the Eurozone

When, in early 2015, the scientifi c and the organizing committee 1 of the conference decided the timing and topics of the event, an extensive debate occurred regarding the facts that were to prevail in the early summer, since June 30, 2015 was the landmark closing date for the fi nancing program Memorandum II between the Greek government and the governing insti-tutions of Europe Given the already expressed positions of the Greek government, the early summer was expected to be a period of intense con-

fl ict Thus, the topic of the conference was put on the negotiating table, particularly whether it should refer to current sociopolitical developments

or the medium- to long-term prospects of the Greek economy

On the Greek Growth Model: A Collective

This was the time when we decided that, against the tide of the times,

we should formulate a framework for the submission of ideas regarding the medium- and long-term outlook of the Greek economy

More specifi cally, the scientifi c committee took the position that long- term developments would ultimately outweigh short-term political ten-sions, and the basic direction of the development of the Greek economy in the Eurozone would remain unchanged Thus, we decided the conference should contribute by focusing on the future of the Greek economy and the forces shaping that future

The realized developments vindicated the scientifi c committee

1.2 THE ELEMENTS OF A GROWTH MODEL

The construction of any theory or model requires that certain conditions

be fulfi lled First, one must precisely specify the subject to be analyzed Then, one must determine the reason for one’s interest in the model and

fi nally clarify the value of its contribution

Besides the above conditions, the construction of a growth model must also be able to interpret the static dimension, interpret the evolution of the material prosperity levels and justify the existence of differences among oth-erwise comparable economies In its dynamic dimension, a growth model should be able to interpret the disequilibrium process with intermediate temporary equilibria and its effects on the material status of the economy The theoretical infrastructure of such a model, thus, is called into ques-tion That infrastructure should consider the evolution of growth based

on the time horizon of the analysis

To the extent that a growth model refers to the short- or medium-term horizon, it will refer to the macroeconomic management of the Greek economy Thus, a growth model involves issues related to the design and implementation of the aid packages of the Greek economy after 2010, and

to the policies of fi scal consolidation and structural changes implemented

in Greece as a result of the debt crisis

In the medium- to long-term horizon, the growth model must take into account known standards of neoclassical or endogenous growth or develop

an eclectic approach to growth issues in related and neighboring sciences From that point and beyond, the development of a long- term growth pro-cess must contain an evolutionary dimension that allows it to interpret the historical development of the economy and make future predictions

A comprehensive growth model for the Greek economy thus must meet particularly high requirements; hence, material is needed from mul-

tiple conferences on the topic This book, although it lacks an integrated approach to the above matters, contributes by presenting key elements of the growth model of the Greek economy and creating the infrastructure for developing a comprehensive picture of future growth It should be noted that the chapters were developed before the agreement regarding the Third Bailout program for Greece, in the middle of August 2015

1.3 THE SELECTIVE CONTRIBUTION

The selective contribution is developed in four parts: The fi rst part gives views on the future evolution of the EU and examines the Greek experi-ence as a country subject to European Commission programming versus that of other programming countries in Europe

The second part deals with the Greek growth model, including its pects, what went wrong and how can the problems be fi xed, the country’s growth potential and current redenomination issues and fi nally the extro-version within the new economic paradigm

The third part refers to structural change and labor market ments This part starts with an attempt to qualify and quantify the Greek structural reform efforts and continues with the question of innovation (i.e., whether or not to innovate) Demographic challenges form the next topic, together with the issue of social security contributions Within the topic of the labor market are three subtopics: Okun’s Law, labor market

develop-fl exibility and the focus on jobs as an alternative development path The fourth part deals with macroeconomic evolution and export per-formance and contains four chapters: The fi rst chapter covers the determi-nants of the business cycles, the second fi scal multipliers and their relation

to growth and the third the impact of sovereign debt ratings Finally, the fourth chapter analyzes export performance

Harold James (Chap 2 : “The EU and the Eurozone”) argues that the contemporary Greek experience offers a warning against the belief in a new political equilibrium shifted toward acceptance of greater fi scal fed-eralism Harold has suggestions regarding how a single market can be transformed into a high-order union:

1 Currency Innovation: The Meaning of Currency Union: The debate about currencies within the EU should include greater will-ingness to think about alternatives, including parallel currencies

2 Minimizing Financial Vulnerability: Banking Union: The debate

on banking union also needs to be recast

3 Becoming more American: The Capital Markets Union: Part of the transformation of Europe’s economy should lie in reducing the role of banks in fi nancing business activity and increasing access to capital markets

4 Shifting the Tax Base: Tax Union: the debate about fi scal dation requires rethinking One of the great controversies in the nineteenth century USA revolved around Henry George’s pro-posal for a land tax

5 Transfers Without Politics: Welfare Union: Problems of transfers in

a large unit lie at the heart of the political process of building erations or federalism

6 Common Projects: Energy Union: The argument in favor of a European energy union—a genuine common energy market with common regulation—may be even stronger than the case success-fully made in the 1980s and 1990s for a monetary union

7 Common Projects: People Union: The EU needs to act effectively

to end the chaos that is driving millions of despairing people side Europe to seek a safe haven inside Europe

8 Common Projects: Military Union: common defense organization and procurement would realize major savings, increase the effec-tiveness of power projection and might help a wider group of young people appreciate that they are Europeans and de-empha-size their feelings of pride in their respective nations

9 Common Projects: Youth Union: if the current crisis promotes higher migration, it should not simply be a source of worry: in the long-run, it may have a strengthening effect

10 Thinking Globally: Global Union: The management of cross- national problems and the containment of nationalistic quarrels require technical fi xes

Pantelis Kostis, Kyriaki Kafka, and Dionysis Valsamis (Chap 3 : “The Greek Growth Decoupling”) attempt to capture the decoupling paths between the Greek economy and the economies of Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and the Baltic states after the outbreak of the crisis They seek to highlight the differences in economics and politics, macroeconomic rebal-ancing, competitive issues and the general nature of the recession faced

in each case The main points derived highlight a decoupling procedure related to the overall macroeconomic environment, unemployment rate,

fi nal consumption expenditure, service exports, quality of institutions,

domestic ratio of investments to savings, nominal unit labor cost, total factor productivity, lack of trust in European institutions, net international investment positions and Target2 imbalances

The analysis shows that not all EU programming economies share lar evolutionary paths However, the Greek economy faces an idiosyn-cratic pattern that matches its future growth potential Those idiosyncratic characteristics relate to the direction of the potential abilities of the econ-omy Thus, the analysis allows opportunity to reconsider issues related

simi-to the quality of applied economic policy in Greece over the last 5 years (2010–2015) and issues to be addressed in future

Ζsolt Darvas (Chap 4 : “Is Greece Destined to Grow?”) argues that

if the new fi nancial assistance program for Greece is to gain the trust of markets, investors and the public, thereby eliminating uncertainty about Greek euro membership, the Greek economy has good growth potential Unfortunately, due to the impasse between the Greek government and its offi cial creditors in the fi rst half of 2015 together with the introduction

of capital controls, Greece is likely to experience further economic ration in the near term But in the medium term, if a comprehensive and credible agreement is reached with creditors and the reforms continue, Greece is destined to grow for the following reasons: (a) Transition to a new growth model has already started, (b) Structural reforms have already been implemented, (c) The continuation of structural reforms offers major improvements in exports and growth, (d) The large fall in unit labor costs helps export performance, (e) Although fi scal targets are not yet known, most likely only small further fi scal adjustment is needed and another round of debt restructuring will benefi t Greece, (f) The economy likely bottomed out in 2013 and deep recessions are generally followed by quick recoveries, (g) The euro area and the global environment are both more supportive now than in the past

Yet Darvas’ positive assessment is conditional on the completion of the negotiations for the third fi nancial assistance program, the implementation

of the program and continued structural reforms, which may be diffi cult even if the third fi nancial assistance program is agreed If the agreement

is not suffi ciently comprehensive and credible, then uncertainty will tinue and growth may not resume However, despite improvements, the Greek economy remains characterized by major structural weaknesses and hence structural reforms must continue; such reforms can offer major improvements in exports and growth

Paolo Manasse (Chap 5 : “Lessons for Europe from the Greek Crisis”) argues that Greece is an example of a bubble economy that eventually burst Total factor productivity in Greece has been fl at since the nineties, meaning the demand-driven, debt-fi nanced boom that occurred upon joining the Euro was unsustainable and the bust that accompanied the crisis was inevitable A hard landing was to be expected, but was also exac-erbated by the policies that followed Manasse notes that many observers have observed that the fi scal consolidation was excessive and excessively front-loaded; at least as important, however, the adjustment would have required a major expenditure switch from non-tradable to tradable goods, which did not materialize To understand why, we must consider competi-tiveness, wages and prices Interestingly, since 2009, real exchange rates displayed only a modest improvement in competitiveness compared with unit labor costs, which improved dramatically This largely accounts for the lackluster response of exports In turn, the divergence between unit labor costs and real exchange rates was due to massive nominal wage defl a-tion, which far exceeded the fall in consumer prices that accompanied the crisis The collapse of real wages then aggravated the recessionary impact

of the fi scal consolidation and worsened most indicators of inequality and poverty, undermining the consensus for market-based reforms The Troika’s structural reforms were poorly timed While labor market reforms were swiftly and radically implemented, procompetitive product market reforms lagged As a result, nominal wages collapsed but prices remained stable, aggravating the fall in household disposable income and domestic expenditure, while generating an insuffi cient improvement in price com-petitiveness and foreign demand

The analysis has clear implications for the ongoing negotiations between Greece and its lenders:

• The required fi scal adjustment should be smoothed over time, with

a primary surplus of about 1.5 % being suffi cient, and debt payment should be restructured accordingly

• Structural reforms should concentrate on reducing barriers to entry in product and export markets, bureaucracy, tax administration and the task of removing credit constraints for small and medium enterprises

The reform of the pension system, while inevitable, should be mented gradually with a view to not further depressing household con-sumption by raising uncertainty regarding future incomes

The basic argument of Michael Haliassos (Chap 6 : “Developing Growth Potential for the Greek Economy”) is that the two initial adjust-ment programs failed mostly because they presented the Greek population with too much “stick” and hardly any “carrot.” The ways in which the adjustment programs so far have failed to harness the productive potential

of the country and inspire confi dence in the future should not be taken

as excuses for not undertaking massive reforms The key nexus is fi entrepreneurship- market demand In developing an export-oriented pro-ductive sector, the key message should not be that Greek wages need

nance-to fall nance-to the levels of the new entrants nance-to the European Union, namely the countries of the former Eastern Europe Despite a poor institutional framework for Universities, Greece has pockets of excellence in research that need to be maintained, nurtured, and linked to industry and applica-tions Dynamic, research-intensive, export-oriented industry needs a lean and effi cient public sector to support it, rather than one that hampers its development and productivity by imposing unnecessary bureaucratic impediments Finally yet importantly, establishing sound development policies and ensuring that they do not have adverse social consequences requires the presence of active, high-quality economic and social research, independent of industry pressures and party affi liations

This is a much broader agenda than simply ensuring a target defi cit-to- GDP ratio, but that agenda is necessary if the third adjustment program

is to bear fruit and be accepted by the Greek population at large While some of the reforms described here will take time to show results, they are necessary if Greece is to embark on a sustainable growth path and escape its clientelistic past With the fi rst signs of genuine effort, movement in the right direction, and success, northern and other European partners will also have a basis for optimistic forecasts regarding future progress and debt repayment The need for patience in reaching the fi nal destination should no longer be an excuse for not taking the fi rst step

In their chapter, Klaus Schrader, David Benček, and Claus-Friedrich Laaser (Chap 7 : “Requirements for a new Business Model in Greece”) sketch Greece’s present business model and its defi ciencies They discuss the sustainability of the Greek debt burden, a further major obstacle to economic recovery From their fi ndings, they derive appropriate policy tools to overcome the Greek crisis To remain in the group of high- income countries, Greece must increase its total factor productivity by modernizing its economic structures The reform process is a necessary condition for structural change and economic recovery The completion

of the reform and promotion of private investment would accelerate the reconstruction of the Greek economy

But these reforms must accompany a solution to the government’s debt problem to restore fi scal stability as a further prerequisite for sustainable growth A fi nal “haircut” or a phasing out of the Greek debt burden is needed to make Greece’s public debt sustainable—regardless of how it is organized technically, called and dimensioned The cut should be attached

to strong conditions to end the bailout process and restore fi scal stability

in Greece The result would be an end to extra European money needing

to be channeled to Athens No new rescue packages would be initiated but instead Greece would be at once treated as an ordinary member of the

EU and the euro group, and would have access to EU programs and bilization mechanisms In return, the country would have to observe the rules of the stability and growth pact and to accept EU economic policy coordination The Greek government would have to bear the political and

sta-fi nancial consequences of its politics

In their chapter David Amiel and Paul-Adrien Hyppolite (Chap 8 :

“Is There an Easy Way Out? Redenomination Issues and Their Financial Consequences in Case of a Greek Exit from the Eurozone”) discuss the issue of currency redenomination, which is highly relevant because many argue Greece should exit the Eurozone and use devaluation to restore external competitiveness while avoiding an enduring collapse in domes-tic demand The contrary view is that such a path would be paved with

fi nancial crises, even chaos, undermining its potentially positive effects However, until now the debate on the short-term fi nancial consequences

of a Euro exit has been insuffi ciently specifi c The authors fi ll a gap in the literature by focusing on a specifi c problem: much of the marketable debt issued by the Greek private and public sectors to fi nance domestic activities is unlikely to be redenominated into the new national currency, and thus a devaluation would only make it much more diffi cult to ser-vice To analyze the magnitude of this effect, they provide a new database

on Greek debt securities compiled at the fi rm level and fi nd signifi cant unhedged mismatches in both fi nancial and nonfi nancial sector balance sheets Similar problems could be found both for Greece’s sovereign debt and for the Bank of Greece

An exit from the Eurozone could therefore trigger large internal over effects from sovereign and central bank debt to the domestic banks and vice versa A “Grexit” is far from impossible in the short- or medium term However, its consequences would be completely different from

those of usual devaluations While highly likely, consequences such as bank runs, hardships arising from implementing a new monetary and payment system, rises in interest rates, and associated costs are very hard to quan-tify The consequences might be severe or magnifi ed by an irrational fear

of the unknown It is no wonder that these aspects of a Grexit are highly controversial What seems certain is that a Grexit would start chaotically Would a Grexit be a Greek tragedy? In light of this analysis, the answer is probably yes

Grigoris Zarotiadis and Eirini Ozouni (Chap 9 : “Extroversion Within

a New Economic Paradigm”) present the basic components of a national plan for an extroverted restructuring of production and development They argue that the Greek economy can assume the role of both a hub and a lab for diverse qualities and innovative procedures of global signifi -cance Developing in this direction sustains the country’s main horizontal characteristics and advantages, and also provides a way to further develop its tradition of small- and medium-sized organizations and (semi-) auton-omous entrepreneurship through the introduction of modern corporatist collaborative structures

Alessio Terzi (Chap 10 : “Qualifying and Quantifying the Greek Structural Reform Efforts”) deals with the controversial issue of structural changes This contribution uses novel evidence to put the discussions of the causes of the failure of the Greek program(s) into perspective, par-ticularly for what concerns the design of program conditionality and the implementation of structural reforms

The main conclusions derived are: (a) Reform efforts under the fi rst Greek program were focused on restoring confi dence in the coun-try’s fi scal accounts (b) The second Greek program was more geared towards reforms likely to boost growth in the short- to medium term (c) Compared with Greece, the Portuguese reform agenda was more focused

on selected weaknesses in the economy, achieved a better overall mentation rate despite initial delays, and included short- and medium-term competitiveness- enhancing reforms from its inception (d) In terms

imple-of the pace imple-of reform, Greece kicked imple-off at the same speed as other euro area countries but lost precious time in the transition between the fi rst and the second programs At this point, a sharp reform gap (in absolute terms) developed between Greece and Portugal

In terms of conditionality implementation, Greece differed little from Portugal However, in absolute terms, fewer reforms were observed in Greece than in Portugal, largely due to the setback experienced in the refo-

cusing of conditionality from fi scal austerity to growth between the fi rst and second programs This initial design failure was then compounded by

a limited administrative capacity, government instability, and admittedly (at times) poor ownership of the reform agenda by national authorities All these elements are associated in the literature with faltering imple-mentation of conditionality during adjustment programs and limited the amount of reform that could credibly be asked from Greece When taking this view, one can conclude that national and international institutions share responsibility for the poor growth outcome of the Greek programs Alexander Kritikos (Chap 11 : “Innovation or ‘More of the Same’: A Crucial Choice for the Greek Society”) discusses the innovation puzzle At the beginning of 2015 it has become clear that economic prosperity will not result simply from the recommendations of the Troika—now renamed

“the institutions” or Quartet—namely cutting costs and public ditures and making institutional reforms, even if the latter are needed

expen-If nothing else changes, the country will have only a steady, tourism- based economy supplemented by a food manufacturing base However, these components will not yield substantial prosperity increases for Greek society Simultaneously, the country has a number of unexploited assets, particularly a small number of excellent research institutes and many top researchers and entrepreneurs, albeit mostly working abroad The central problem is the lack of an effective innovation system connecting research output with the demand of innovative fi rms and high-tech startups Those among Greek society who wish to help their country must formulate

a vision for transforming Greece into an innovation-driven economy Following such a vision, they need to create a strategy to cultivate a func-tioning innovations system This includes building the capacity of new applied research institutes and expanding appropriate research networks

in close cooperation with innovative fi rms, who should be encouraged to engage in high value-added product innovation

To this end, an innovation agenda is proposed to transform Greece into

an innovation-based economy However, Greek decision-makers must make clear that embarking on an innovation-centered policy will not yield instant economic improvements—indeed the policy will take one decade

to bear fruit However, the time to start is now, as the earlier the reforms are implemented, the sooner the country will enter a sustainable economic growth path Of course, whether Greece becomes an innovation hub depends not just on investments in R&D, but also on establishing a part-nership between the worlds of research, business and entrepreneurship,

where ideas can be freely exchanged Greek Ministers and MPs, regardless

of party, must commit to the vision by formulating a vision that inspires Greek entrepreneurs, scientists, and citizens They must also take concrete actions that signal a serious commitment to innovation Their combined efforts may become key to creating trust in the Greek political system

A very serious long-term problem is discussed by Edward Hugh (Chap

12 : “Demographic Challenges Facing Long-Term Growth in Greece”) Greece, like the other members of the European Union, is in the midst of

a profound demographic transition, one that will see the country’s ulation simultaneously shrink and age for many decades to come The basic drivers of this transition are long-term low fertility and rising life expectancy

A second path dependency issue raised in Greece relates to the way the economic adjustment has occurred inside the framework of a currency union One of the habitual criticisms of outside observers regarding the way in which the Euro operated during the fi rst decade of its existence concerned the absence of labor mobility within the region

Greece needs immigration and employment generation to make its health and pension systems more sustainable It needs a higher long-term growth rate rather than a lower one, but the current adjustment process might mean the latter tendency prevails Economic regeneration implies that the young people who are leaving, and taking their talent with them, must remain in the local economy to dynamize it, not shoot out the sides like water from a punctured high-pressure hose

The rate of decline in Greece’s working age population is not a given The decline could accelerate if current emigration continues, or it could slow if the economy grows with suffi cient momentum to generate suf-

fi cient employment to attract immigrants

Even without immigration, Greece can slow the fall in the cally active population by increasing participation rates through structural reforms that bring more women into employment and extend the working lives of the existing workforce But even this is not a “cure all” because experience in Japan and elsewhere suggests that the contribution of such additional employment to aggregate value added may not be large The outlook is challenging but the issues are not impossible to address More rather than fewer reforms will ultimately be needed, and carrying these through will require a consensus among Greek citizens that the reforms are necessary However, a fi rst step towards the implementation of reform

must surely come from a recognition that the problem exists and an attempt to conduct a realistic estimation of the size of the likely impact Thomas Poufi nas and Effrosyni Kouskouna (Chap 13 : “Rearranging Social Security Contributions: Alleviating the Burden of the State and Returning Value to the State and Society”) analyze the social security issue They study a potential rearrangement of social security contribu-tions that could ease the weight of the state and simultaneously contribute

to economic growth

To achieve this, the authors calculate the present value of the assets and the liabilities of a pay-as-you-go scheme, on a certain date They further assume assets to be lower than liabilities, as is typically the case They investigate an approach that could fund the benefi ts promised through the pay-as-you-go scheme Such a route proposes the split of the contribution per individual into two parts:

– a part that funds the difference between the liabilities and assets for a certain period of time, and

– a part that is directed to a funded scheme

After the predetermined period lapses, the full contribution is directed

to the funded scheme The latter is anticipated to gradually grow such that

it will alleviate the burden of the state and simultaneously allow for the reinvestment of accumulated funds Such reinvestment will return value to the state and society, as the funded pension scheme will invest in state or corporate bonds and equity, even those of small and medium enterprises This will secure to the state and enterprises the capital necessary to help them grow; hence, it will contribute to economic growth

As far as the funded scheme is concerned

– Existing pensioners will receive their pensions only from the as- you-go scheme

pay-– The existing insured with vested rights will receive their pensions from both the pay-as-you-go and funded schemes, as of the day the new model applies

– The newly insured will receive their pensions only from the funded scheme

The authors examine the time period during which a contribution

is made in both funds and consider the proportion of the contribution directed to each of the funds

Based on the above rationale, one can conclude that the proposed scheme has remarkable potential It is anticipated that the substitution effect towards other forms of investments would be small, as funded pen-sion schemes are just starting The reinvestment of contributions will return value to the state and society, as the funded pension scheme will invest in state or corporate bonds and equity in addition to small and medium enterprises This will secure for the state and enterprises the capi-tal necessary to help them grow and hence will contribute to economic growth

The following three contributions refer to the labor market Christos Katris (Chap 14 : “Okun’s Law in Greece in the Post-Crisis Era: An Empirical Study”) discusses the validity of Okun’s Law

This study examines the relationship between unemployment and GDP for Greece after the crisis of 2008 The gap version of Okun’s Law is cal-culated using quarterly data from the fourth quarter of 2008–2014 For the calculation, the Hodrick–Prescott fi lter is applied to estimate devia-tions from the trends of the series of GDP and the unemployment rate The Okun’s coeffi cient displays the ability of an economy to increase GDP

by reducing unemployment and can be used to measure the loss of put caused by unemployment Okun’s Law is also calculated for Germany and the euro area (those countries that use the Euro as their offi cial cur-rency) and a comparison is made with Greece Next, the effect of the wage reduction on unemployment in Greece during the last 5 years is studied using the Mann–Whitney statistical test Finally, forecasts for 2015 for the trend of the unemployment rate are provided, based on a time series model These forecasts can be used as an upper rate of unemployment The target is to decrease unemployment to below these forecasted values, while an unemployment rate that exceeds these values signals economic deterioration

The main fi ndings are that Okun’s Law was not signifi cant in Greece, but was signifi cant in Germany and the euro area Looking only at the coeffi cient, the economic cost of unemployment in Greece is smaller than

in the euro area Furthermore, unemployment in Greece not only must decrease, but this decrease must be achieved through the offer and cre-ation of productive jobs A basic assumption, to enhance the willingness

of businesses to hire more employees (so to reduce unemployment in the private sector), was the reduction of wages For this reason, from 2012 the minimum wage in Greece was reduced This policy of wage reduction

did not make sense in terms of decreasing unemployment, so alternative policies must be discussed to fi ght high unemployment

Kostas Karamanis and Alina Hyz (Chap 15 : “The Infl uence of Flexible Working on Unemployment: Evidence from the Greek Labor Market”) seek to explain the relationship between employment and fl exible working

in the Greek labor market More specifi cally, they study the evolution of

fl exible forms of employment during 2000–2013 and examine whether these changes impacted the overall scale of employment and unemploy-ment In recent years, particularly in the European Union, it is believed that the reduction of labor costs will contribute to the competitiveness and adaptability of enterprises and thus to the maintenance of existing jobs and the creation of new ones Since the early 1990s, Greece, follow-ing the guidelines of the European Union, gradually pushed a series of legislative changes aimed to promote fl exible working, focused on areas such as wages and working time The main conclusion of this chapter supports fi ndings of other researches that the signifi cant increase in fl ex-ible working, particularly after 2009, failed to increase employment and reduce unemployment in the Greek labor market The points made by Karamanis and Hyz are then contrasted against an alternative view on growth and jobs from Wray Randall

In his contribution, Randall Wray (Chap 16 : “Jobs Not Growth: An Alternative Path for Development”) argues that Greece’s current predica-ment results primarily not from structural problems—or at least, will not

be cured by attacking presumed structural problems The current crisis differs from previous crises and instead traces its roots to the general crisis

of the European Monetary Union First, there is no central authority that can rescue fi nancial institutions in the event of a crisis The other mistake is that there is no central fi scal authority with suffi cient fi nancing to provide transfers to members with current account defi cits For these reasons, it is doubtful that structural “reforms” are the solution

Today, Greece operates the equivalent of a pegged system against the euro and can lose euros to imports The Target2 system ensures clear-ing at par of “Greek” euros against those of all other EU members This comes at a price, with the institutions formerly known as the Troika imposing constraints on Greece’s fi scal defi cits That makes it diffi cult for Greece to implement a universal ELR (Employer of Last Resort)/JG (Job Guarantee) program because such a measure could expand the defi cit This is by no means a certain outcome because raising employment would reduce other social spending while increasing tax revenue

A number of options are available to Greece First, Greece could ment a limited jobs program—targeted, for example, at youth employ-ment Second, Greece could create a parallel currency for the payment

imple-of wages in the program These two options are less than ideal, with the second option raising a number of problematic issues

Konstantinos Konstantakis, Panayotis Michaelides and Efthymios Tsionas (Chap 17 : “The Determinants of Economic Fluctuations in Greece: An Empirical Investigation (1995–2014)”) investigate the deter-minants of the Greek business cycle during 1995–2014 To this end, they use a wide dataset in a quarterly format, which contains all the major mac-roeconomic and fi nancial variables that have impacted the Greek economy They apply a number of relevant econometric techniques such as fi ltering, Fourier analysis, white noise tests, unit root tests, structural breaks tests, backward regression and rolling windows analysis Their fi ndings show that the Greek business cycle exhibits two structural breaks, one in 2004 (Q3) and one in 2011 (Q4) During 1995–2004, analysis of the 10-year bond-yields and the elections revealed them to have a procyclical impact

on the Greek business cycle, while a countercyclical effect existed for the formation of European Monetary Union During 2005–2012, Greek credit and imports were found to have a strong procyclical impact on the Greek economy, while the overall EU-17 Business Cycle and the Troika had a countercyclical impact

Sotiris Papaioannou (Chap 18 : “Fiscal Multipliers and Growth in the Greek Economy: An Assessment of the Recent Fiscal Adjustment Program”) quantifi es the role of fi scal policy on the growth of the Greek economy, as well as on private investments and employment, through the estimation of multipliers From what is already known, published studies

on this topic do not exist for the Greek economy, except for some relevant assessments of international organizations Equally important is the evalu-ation of the impact of the recent fi scal adjustment program for the Greek economy

From the outset of the implementation of the economic adjustment program, a signifi cant portion of economists attributed the downturn in economic activity to fi scal consolidation and particularly to the incorrect assessment of fi scal multipliers, which rose during the crisis The analysis advocates that these concerns are well founded, as the sharp recession and subsequent fi scal tightening policies may have led to signifi cant output losses However, ascribing the sharper-than-expected recession solely to

fi scal consolidation or the erroneous estimation of fi scal multipliers is not

a suffi cient explanation This interpretation is incomplete as fi scal tion does not always lead to such a prolonged and unprecedented fall in economic activity and fi scal expansion is not always benefi cial to GDP growth A natural interpretation of the stronger-than-expected recession

contrac-is related to a combination of fi scal consolidation and liquidity constraints faced by consumers and investors Factors such as fi nancial squeeze, loss of confi dence, decline in investments and reluctance to implement structural reforms contributed to the enlargement of the negative effects of fi scal adjustment

Evaggelos Drimpetas and Themistokles Lazarides (Chap 19 : “The Impact of Sovereign Debt Ratings and Financial Performance on Bank Ratings”) seek to fi nd the relation between sovereign debt ratings, indi-vidual bank ratings and bank fi nancial status The impact of Credit Rating Agencies (CRA) ratings is multidimensional and affects both the macro-economic and microeconomic environments The fact is that ratings (both sovereign and bank) are relatively stable in times of growth and stability and fl uctuate during periods of crisis and rapid economic expansion The connection of bank ratings with fi nancial performance and sovereign debt ratings is researched Some countries, such as Greece, have been struck more severely by the crisis because of macroeconomic and fi scal environ-mental problems and the banking sector’s close connection to the sover-eign debt This chapter seeks to present the differences in the impact on these countries (such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland)

To research the relation, two main blocks of models have been designed The fi rst block uses a constructed binary variable to construct the ranking of Fitch ratings for Europe’s banks The variable construction

is based on the value of evaluation The second block tries to fi nd the tion between fi nancial performance and Fitch ratings Three econometric methods (Ordinary Least Squares, Least Absolute Deviations, and Robust Regression) have been used to create a system that predicts fi nancial per-formance Many indicators of performance are used (such as Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets (ROA)) The independent variables used in both sets of research can be categorized into seven groups of indi-cators: performance, size, ownership, corporate governance, capital ade-quacy or capital structure, locality- country ranking and loan growth The data used for the empirical analysis cover the period 2004–2011 and are focused on the 27 European Union countries and their large commercial banks

The statistical results show the close relation among sovereign debt, bank ratings and performance The statistical importance of this relation

is an indicator that external exogenous factors can play a signifi cant role

in formulating the economic environment, especially in times of crisis The results are especially important for Greece or other countries that face signifi cant macroeconomic problems—this includes the Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIGS) in general

Finally, George Geronikolaou, Eleftherios Spyromitros, and Panagiotis Tsintzos (Chap 20 : “What Drives Greek Exports Performance? A Macrolevel Analysis”) point out that the performance of Greek exports did not meet the expectations of the economic adjustment program, with exports failing to become the pillar of Greek economic growth Using quarterly macrolevel data and considering exports to Eurozone and non- Eurozone countries, respectively, this chapter attempts to highlight the main determinants of Greek export performance during 2004–2014 The authors show that unit labor costs and long-term rates negatively affect Greek exports to Eurozone countries Additionally, exchange rates and unit labor costs seem crucial for Greek exports to non-Eurozone countries Summarizing their results, they show that economic uncertainty, as proxied by long-term interest rates, acts as

an important drag on Greek exports to Eurozone countries, offsetting the positive effect of reduced labor costs on Greece’s export perfor-mance since the implementation of internal devaluation Moreover, the clear upward trend of Greek exports to non-Eurozone countries seems related both to the reduction of unit labor costs and the devaluation of the euro The stimulation of growth through a number of reforms in the labor, goods and services markets is essential, absorbing the collapse of domestic demand and redirecting this production and capital to tradable goods This could considerably reduce the country’s risk premium and thus long-term interest rates

NOTES

Kollias (President of the Economic Chamber of Greece), Prof Dionysis Chionis (Economic Chamber of Greece, Department of Economics DUTh), Prof Napoleon Maravegias (Greek Parliamentary Budget Offi ce), Prof Panagiotis E. Petrakis (Department of Economics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens), Assist Prof Vangelis Drimbetas (Department of

Economics DUTh), Prof Panagiotis Liargovas (University of Peloponnese— Coordinator of the Greek Parliamentary Budget Offi ce) The organizing committee comprised the following individuals: Elisavet Mavridou (Economic Chamber of Greece), Alexandros Lyras (Greek Parliamentary Budget Offi ce), Pantelis C. Kostis (Department of Economics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens), Thomas Poufi nas (Lecturer in Finance, Department of Economics DUTh), Dimitra Mitsi (University of the Peloponnese)

PART I

Greece and the European Union