Impacts of climate change on food security in vietnam

VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN VIETNAM BY HuYNH THJ NHI MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HO CHI M

VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD

SECURITY IN VIETNAM

BY HuYNH THJ NHI

MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

HO CHI MINH CITY, January 2013

VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD

SECURITY IN VIETNAM

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

By HuYNH THJ NHI

Academic Supervisor Ph.D NGUYEN HUU DUNG

HO CHI MINH CITY, January 2013

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION i

ACKN" OWLEDGEMENT • ii

ABSTRACT iii

LIST OF TABLES iv

LIST OF FIGURES v

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS vi

Chapter 1 1

INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT 1

1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVIVES 3

1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 3

1.4 RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS 4

1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY 4

Chapter 2 • 6

LITERATURE REVIEW • • 6

2.1 BASIC CONCEPT AND DEFINITION 6

2.1.1 Greenhouse gases (GHGs) 6

2.1.2 Emissions 6

2.1.3 Climate Change 6

2.1.4 Climate Change Scenario 9

2.1.5 Sea Level Rises 10

2.1.6 Food Security 10

2.1.7 Scenario 11

2.1.8 Simulation II 2.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 11

2.2.1 Theoretical Literature II 2.2.2 Empirical Studies 17

2.2.3 Conceptual Framework 24

2.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 26

Chapter 3 26

CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, FOOD SUPPLY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM 27

3.1 CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, AND FOOD SUPPLY 27

3.1.1 Paddy Production 27

3 1.2 Domestic Rice Consumption and Export 32

3.2 CURRENT SITUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE 35

3.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 35

Chapter 4 39

METHODOLOGY AND DATA 39

4.1 METHODOLOGY 39

4.2 SOURCE OF DATA 43

4.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 44

Chapter 5 45

DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 45

5.1 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD IN MEKONG DELTA 45 5.2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS IN VIETNAM UP TO 2030 49

5.3 CHAPTER REMARKS 58

Chapter 6 59

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 59

6.1 SUMMARY OF THE STUDY AND CONCLUSIONS 59

6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS 60

6.3 LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER RESEASRCHES 61

REFERENCES 63

as well as in paper's Appendix and References

I hereby undertake responsibility for the contents of my thesis And I certify that this study has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being currently submitted for any other degree

Ho Chi Minh City, January 2013

Huynh Thi Nhi

p

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Fist of all, I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr Nguyen Huu Dung for his intellectual support and his wonderful inspiration I am grateful for his support and kindness in helping me at every stage of my research His knowledge about rural development and environment issues has helped me to understand and enjoy those issues The suggestions and comments from him are significant which was improved

my research Without his understanding and encouragement, I would not complete this paper Secondly, my thanks go to Dr Nguyen Van Ngai, who was given some hints for

my topic as well as methodology in the first step

In addition, I also would like to thank Dr Ha Thuc Vien and Dr Tran Tien Khai who taught me the deep knowledge of the economic environment as well as inspired me to environment issues

Finally, my thanks go to my family and my friends who were at my side and supported

to me throughout this program I would not fmished my course unless their encouragements

-ABSTRACT

This paper studies how climate change impacts on national food security Econometric

model is used to estimate from the secondary data as pool data of Mekong Delta in

period 2001-2010 The Cobb-Douglas functional form is applied for the average yield

function The result indicates that in Cobb-Douglass model, as the temperature rises by

1%, the estimated decrease the rice yield is 0.45% and the rice yield also decreases

0.15% on average when the precipitation increases 1%, holding all other factors

constant The qualitative analysis and simulations with different scenarios are also

applied to build on Vietnam's food security scenarios up to 2030 The findings show

that Vietnam has to face the lack of rice for consuming up to 2030 in IPSL-2030

climate change scenario This country needs to add 4.2 million tons ofrice to ensure

food security at the national level Meanwhile, in GISS-2030 and MORNE-2030

scenarios, Vietnam is still ensure for domestic consume, and the surplus rice for

export in these two scenarios are 0.4 and 1.5 million tons, respectively

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1: Summary of Empirical Studies about Impacts of Climate Change on

Agriculture and Food Security 20

Table 3.1: Paddy Yield by Regions ofVietnam, 1995-2010 31

Table 3.2: Domestic Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 1995-2010 32

Table 3.3: Rice Export Volume of Vietnam, 1995-2010 33

Table 5.1: Descriptive Statistics of Data 45

Table 5.2: Panel Unit Test Results 47

Table 5.3: Estimation Results 47

Table 5.4: Average Annual Temperature increase in Degrees by Agro-ecological Zones 49

Table 5.5: Average% Changes in Annual Precipitation by Agro-ecological Zones 50

Table 5.6: Rice Yield Change under Climate Change Scenarios 50

Table 5.7: Estimated Rice Planted Area versus Impact of Climate Change up to 2030 51

Table 5.8: Forecasted Domestic Demand of Food in Vietnam up to 2030 53

Table 5.9: Balancing Paddy Supply and Paddy Demand in Vietnam until 2030 54

Table 5.10: Food Security Scenarios up to 2030 by CAP-IPSARD 55

Table 5.11: Climate Change Scenarios and Food Security Scenarios up to 2030 56

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1: Global Warming and Changes in the Climate System 8

Figure 2.2: Climate Change and Food Security 15

Figure 2.3: The Linkage between Climate Change and Food Security 25

Figure 3.1: Paddy Statistic in Vietnam, 1995-2010 27

Figure 3.2: Cultivated Paddy Area by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010 29

Figure 3.3: Distribution ofVietnamese Paddy Production (average 1995-2010) 30

Figure 3.4: Average Rice Consumption in Vietnam, 2000-2006 33

Figure 3.5: The Share Rice Exports ofVietnam in World Total, 1995-2010 34

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

Center for Agricultural Policy Climate Change

Foods and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nation Greenhouse Gas

Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Statistic Office of Vietnam International Centre for Environment Management International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies International Food Policy Research Institute

Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Institute Pierre Simon Laplace

International Rice Research Institute Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam National Advisory Committee on Climate Change

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Natural Research Centre of Banana

Oxford Committee for Famine Relief United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations Department of Economic & Social Affairs United Nations Development Program

World Bank

1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION

Up to now, climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing human beings It

has become the concern as socio-economical and environmental problems in the world Indeed, climate change became global issue in recent years, negatively impacted to all countries, especially in agriculture regions; threat crop failures, life damage losses and other critical ecosystem vulnerabilities In particular, agriculture sectors have direct exposure and dependence on weather and other natural conditions Hence, climate change could pose serious issues On the other hand, the challenges of global food security through increasing population, accompanied by increased demand for food As predicted, the world population can be growth from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 8.3 billion in 2030 and to 9.1 billion people in 2050, but the majority occurs in developing countries Thus, food demand has to increase by 70% to meet the population growth, in which the developing countries have doubled At present, enormous burden of feeding a global population is growing rapidly become more severe due to the impact of climate change on food production (UNDESA, 2009) According to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2007), Vietnam is the graded fifth in vulnerability under the impacts of climate change In which, Mekong Delta is one of the three most vulnerable Deltas in the world as rising sea level, besides the Nile Delta in Egypt and the Ganges Delta in Bangladesh In East and South Asia, climate change will alter precipitation patterns, increasing frequency of droughts and average temperatures, threatening fresh water for agricultural production In Sub-Saharan Africa, rainfall will be reduced by half in

2020 It is a threat for agriculture sector, and so it effect to food security all over the world Consequently, ensuring food security is increasingly urgent The

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC, 2007) has also estimated that Vietnam will be seriously affected by changing of climate in the future

In fact, Vietnam is among of the countries hardest hit by climate change through rising sea levels, changing in rainfall and temperatures According to Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (Climate change, Sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam, MONRE, 2009), the change in climate would significantly affect over all regions of Vietnam "By the end of the 21st century, average temperature in Vietnam is expected to increase about 2.3°C; total annual rainfall and rainy season's rainfall would increase while dry season's rainfall would decrease; sea level is expected to rise about 75cm compared to the average for 1980-1999" (MONRE, 2009) If sea levels rise by 1 meter, approximately 40% of the Mekong Delta, 11% of the Red River Delta area and 3% of the other provinces in coastal areas will be flooded; 10-12% Vietnam's population directly affected, and losses of about 10% of GDP (Tran Hong Ha, MONRE, 2011 ) Meanwhile, the population of Vietnam was estimated more than 100 million people in 2020 It means that Vietnam has to raise the current food production

to ensure food security

Furthermore, Vietnam's climate, topography and long coastline makes Vietnam particularly vulnerable to climate variability and natural disaster The Vietnamese coastline is about 3,260 km with the sea consists 1,000,000 km2• The natural area has 329,241 km2 of which 29% of land used for agricultural production (GSO, 2010) In

recent, Vietnam is the second largest rice exporter in the world However, the country still has about 1 million people, mainly ethnic minorities without enough food for their living Thus, food security is not only more serious for Vietnam but also for the rest of the world by impacting of climate change

In brief, climate change has narrowed the area of agricultural land which were submerged a large portion of agricultural land in the low coastal plains, the Red Delta and the Mekong Delta by rising sea levels Besides, increasing temperatures, changing

weather and natural disasters lead to grow diseases and epidemics Not only the productivity and output have been threatened, but also the national food security as well It is the reason why the Vietnamese government and many Institutions had a lot

of programs and researches to adapt the climate change and food security Based on the available climate change scenarios which were conducted by researchers and institutions as well as the previous findings, this paper studies the impacts of climate change on food security in Vietnam with the simulation approach

1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVIVES

The goal of this study is to examine how likely is the climate change may pose impacts on food security based on MORNE's climate change scenarios and food security projects This research has four specific objectives as follows:

(1) To understand the relationship between climate change and food security;

(2) To indicate the impact of climate change on rice yield in Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010;

(3) To explore and estimate the impacts of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030, focusing on food supply side;

(4) To draw policy recommendations for food security in Vietnam

1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

To obtain the above objectives, this paper will attempt to answer the following questions:

( 1) How is the relationship between climate change and food security?

(2) How is the impact of climate change (such as rainfall changes, temperature increases, etc.) on rice production in Mekong Delta region?

(3) How is the impact of climate change on food security in Vietnam up to 2030? Among of predicted scenarios, which scenarios are suitable for Vietnam in reality?

(4) What are policy implications to food security in the future?

1.4 RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS

This paper will forecast the impact of climate change on food security in Vietnam up

to 2030 In particular, it attempts to forecast the impact of climate change on food security with simulations on different scenarios In addition, this study also looks at the food demand and supply based on government goals which is evident in the legal documents The findings may provide policy makers useful information in assessing the feasibility of food security objectives under climate change, and in selecting the appropriate policies to adapt the climate change and ensure the food security up to

2030

1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY

This paper consists of six parts, covering the major theme as impact of climate change

on food security Chapter 1 provides the overview of the study Chapter 2 presents the literature review Chapter 3 indicates the current situation of food demand and supply, and climate change in Vietnam Chapter 4 shows the methodology and data Chapter 5 analyzes data and discusses the results Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the paper and provides some recommendations as well as the limitations of this research

In detail, Chapter 1 raises the problem statement which is caused the theme for this thesis Based on the issue, impact of climate change on food security is studied The objectives and contributions of this study also present in the first part Second, Chapter

2 presents basic concepts and defmitions such as greenhouse gases, emissions, climate change, climate change scenario, and food security Theoretical literature and empirical studies which related climate change and agriculture production aspect are

also presented The finding of conceptual framework indicating the linkage between climate change and food security is reviewed as well Third, Chapter 3 shows and analyzes the current situation of food demand and supply, and climate change The chapter begins with the analysis of paddy production as rice being the major food for Vietnamese meal This section investigates Vietnam's paddy statistics in the period from 1995 to 2010, including cultivated paddy area and paddy yields by regions of Vietnam In the demand side, this study evaluates domestic rice consumption and rice exports volume of Vietnam Regarding to the current situation of climate change, the chapter mainly summarizes the analysis of climate parameters and sea level based on observed data of MORNE Climate is considered in this part as temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, typhoon, cold front and drizzles Next, Chapter 4 presents the methodology and data where econometric model is used to estimate from the secondary data which is adopted pool data of Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010 The Cobb-Douglas functional form is applied for the average yield function Methods for analysis and simulations under different scenarios are also presented And then, Chapter 5 analyses and explains the results The aim of this chapter is to show the impact of climate change on food security up to 2030 with various climate scenarios Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the paper It discusses the main findings as well as offers some recommendations The limitations of this research are also raised in the last section

Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

The chapter firstly defmes the relevant concepts including climate change and food security Next, it shows theoretical literature on the linkage between the climate change and food security Cobb-Douglas Function and Simulation approach are laid out Then, it reviews some empirical studies And finally, the conceptual framework for this study is also presented in this chapter

2.1 BASIC CONCEPT AND DEFINITION

2.1.1 Greenhouse gases (GHGs)

Greenhouse gases are gases that absorb long-wave radiation (infrared) These are reflected from the earth's surface when illuminated by sunlight, then, dissipate heat back to the earth and causing the greenhouse effect Ordinarily, the prime greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor (H20), carbon dioxide (C02), nitrous oxide (N20), methane (CRt) and ozone (03) (IPCC Glossary, 1995)

Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (F AO, 2008), greenhouse gases to the atmosphere was one of the major causes This was proposed by Joseph Fourier in

1824 After that, in 1896, Svante Arrhenius investigated quantitatively These factors determine the greenhouse gas emission such as economic growth, population, consumption, energy sources, technology transfer and land use, etc (IPCC, 2007) Among of them, water vapor which causes about 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, carbon dioxide (C02) about 9-26%, methane (Cf-4) about 4-9%, ozone (03) about 3-7%, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide (N20) were the rest cause Wigley and Jones (1981) concluded that the effects of C02 on climate is available and by this time, atmospheric C02 concentrations may become high and will be higher in the future which was an important cause of climate change

Hydrosphere

• Higher global mean and maximum sea surface temperatures

Changes in hydrosphere

• Changes in ocean circulation

• Changes in patterns of water flow in glacier-fed streams

• Changes in recharge rates for underground aquifers

• Changes in sea salinity

• Changes in cloud cover

• Higher global mean precipitation

• Changes in frequency, duration intensity and geographic distribution of rainfall and snowfall r - • Increased frequency, duration and intensity of droughts

• Changes in wind patterns

• Greater seasonal weather variability

• Changes in frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events

• Displacement of climatic zones

T Changes in biosphere

• More luxuriant plant growth

• Species shifts uphill and towards polar regions, resulting in changed species composition of nature habitats

• Changes in suitability of land for arable crops, tree crops, pasture crops, grazing and human habitation

• Changes in star/end of growing season

• Displacement of ecological zones

agro-Changes in lithosphere

• More soil erosion

• Changes in pattern of sedimentation after flooding

• Changes in shorelines of coasts and lakes

•

2.1.4 Climate Change Scenario

Climate change scenario is the scientific assumption and reliability in future evolution,

of which the relationship between socio-economic development, GDP, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and sea level rises (IPCC, 2007) The scenarios reported by IPCC (2007) are as follows:

• Al Family: Scenario characteristics are rapid economic growth, global population reaches the peak in 2050 and declines thereafter, rapid introduction

of new technologies and more efficient of these, convergence of world-income, way of life and among regions, strong cultural exchanges and social interactions (IPCC, 2007)

Based on technological development, Al scenario divides into three groups All these are A 1 F 1 (High emission scenario) with an intensity on fossil intensive, AlB (Medium emission scenario) with an intensity on a balance across all energy sources and A 1 T (Low emission scenario) with an intensity on non-fossil energy sources (IPCC, 2007)

• A2 Family: Scenario characteristics are heterogeneous world, self-reliance and

preservation of nations, continuously increasing population in the 21st century, regionally-oriented economic development, technological change, slow per capita economic growth (High emission scenario, similar to A 1 F 1 ) (IPCC, 2007)

• Bl Family: Scenario characteristics are rapid economic growth as in Al, but with changes toward a service and information economy, global population reaches the peak in 2050 and declines thereafter, reduces in material intensity and introduces clean and resources efficient technologies, emphasizes on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability (Low emission scenario, similar to A 1 T) (IPCC, 2007)

• B2 Family: Scenario characteristics are continuously increasing population, but

at a rate lower than A2, emphasizes on local rather than global solutions to

economic, social and environmental sustainability, economic development with intermediate levels, less rapid and more diverse technological change than in

B 1 and Al families (Medium emission scenario, similar to AlB) (IPCC, 2007)

2.1.5 Sea Level Rises

Sea level rise is the surge of ocean water in worldwide, which does not include tides, storm surges Sea level rise at a certain location may be higher or lower than the global average because of differences in ocean temperature and other factors (IPCC Glossary, 1995)

2.1.6 Food Security

Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times have secure access

to sufficient, safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development, for an active and healthy life (IPCC Glossary, 1995)

"Availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices" (World Food Summit, 1974)

"Ensuring that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to the basic food that they need" (F AO, 1983)

"Access of all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life" (World Bank, 1986)

"Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels [is achieved] when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" (World Food Summit, 1996)

"Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" (State ofFood Insecurity, 2001)

2.1 7 Scenario

Scenario is a possible description of how the future may develop which based on a coherent and consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships (IPCC Glossary, 1995)

2.2.1.1 The Linkage between Climate Change and Food Security

The linkages between climate change and food security have been examined and documented in literature For the most part, this relation is the impact of climate change on productivity Therefore, food supply is influenced as a link The causes of climate change are also considered to explain clearly The increase in average temperature of Earth due to emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere had caused the change of global climate Over the past 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8°C, especially in last three decades During the 20th Century, the average temperature of Earth rose 0.6°C and predicted that it will rise between 1.8° and 4.0° Celsius in during 21st Century (IPCC, 2007) Most of the scientists found that the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases is the cause, which were produced by human activities (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007)

In the case of Vietnam, agriculture accounts for a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions Actually, rice cultivation and livestock account for about 43% (MORNE,

2011 ) Thus, the climate change and agriculture production have an interaction together In the long run, the climate change could impact on agriculture in many ways It could affect the yield, in term of quality and quantity of crops Besides,

agriculture practice will be influenced due to fertilizers, herbicides, insecticides and irrigation In another way, the environment will be effected through frequency and intensity of soil drainage, soil erosion, crop diversity declined as well Furthermore, the loss and gain of cultivated lands also lead to rural landscape change

As a result, greenhouse gases do make global warming and lead to change the climate

F AO and NRCB (F AO/NRCB, 2008) showed that climate change through five aspects: C02 fertilization effect, increase in global mean temperatures, gradual changes in precipitation, increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and greater weather variability This leads to change in food system assets then change in food system activities Finally, four components of food security as availability, accessibility, utilization and system stability were changed by climate change indirectly (F AO, 2008)

Indeed, the climate change has become the global environment issue This problem is more dangerous deal with developing countries According to World Bank (WB,

201 0), climate change is expected to hit developing countries the hardest Changes in rainfall patterns, increased in temperature, more frequent weather and rising sea level are the causing of risks for agriculture, food and water supplies The impactions of climate change on agriculture production and human life were occurred day by day In the past and in the present, many of the people have to die of hunger or to suffer hunger This problem is more serious for the poor people In the future, they will still face with the hunger due to climate change on agriculture production Hence, much of the existing research has focused on the potential agriculture impact and food security implications

For instance, m "Effects of Climate Change on Food Production" of Parry and Swaminathan (1992) showed that global climate change will boost the pressure on agriculture system The yield will be declined meanwhile the food demand is growing rapidly Consequently, they effected on world food supply and food security At the

same time, Downing (1992) illustrated some evidences about global change and vulnerability to hunger The index of food security in developing countries, resource pressure and risk of climate change were presented in this research Chen (1990) found that the global agriculture, the environment and food security have linkages together

He highlighted these linkages in the past, present and future This was presented in the article "Global Agriculture, Environment and Hunger" In particular, Sinha et al ( 1988) argued the food supply in smaller countries will be more affected by climate change than the larger countries

In the same token, Kwon and Kim (2008) examined the relationship between productivity and climate change of which rice yield was illustrated They applied non-parametric and semi-parametric models for their study The result showed that rice yield and climate change are related In respect, rice yield was positive with temperature and negative with rain fall Besides, the exiting was a non-linear relationship between rice yield and weather variables Nevertheless, they only focused

on average rice yield change over weather conditions They did not consider crop yield variability and weather conditions corresponding For this reason, McCarl and Schimmelpfennig (2004), Chang and Chen (2005), Devadoss and Isik (2006) discussed this aspect They demonstrated that weather variables affect average crop yield and the variability as well The average crop yield and yield variability are mixed Some are positive and some are negative which are based the characteristics of crops and physical growing locations These researchers concluded that the average crop yield in hotter and drier weather conditions is lower and the variability is also larger

In the case of Vietnam country and regions in detail, climate change is a senous challenge that Mekong Delta and Red Delta are low lying Thus, they are the most regions affected when flooding occurs as well as salinity and other adverse weather phenomena Major causes of climate change are due to the increase of physical activities generate GHG emissions, the excessive exploitation of forest resources,

manne ecosystems, coastal and other land (IMHEN, 2011 ) Mekong Delta is the country's largest rice granary and aquaculture region It produces about 50% of country's rice output and 52% of aquatic products (GSO, 2010) Based on the fmdings

of Bingxin Yu, Clemens Breisinger, Nguyen Manh Hai and Tingju Zhu (2010), annual rice production may be reduced by 2 7 million tons by 2050 under climate change Crop yield reductions under climate change vary widely across agro-ecological zones The yield decline is estimated to be 4.3-8.3% by 2050 in the Mekong Delta

In conclusion, the interaction between biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food Climate change can be "due to natural variability or as a result of human activity" (IPCC 2007) According to F AO, food systems involve food availability, food access and food utilization And so, the resulting in food systems ensure for food security

INCREASE IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERA TllRES

• Increase in maximum temperature on hot days

• Increase in minimum temperature on cold days

• Increase in annual occurrence of hot days

• Increase in frequency, duration &

intensity of heat waves GRADlJAL CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION

• Increase in frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts

• Changes in timing, location &

amounts of rain and snowfall INCREASE IN FREQllENCY AND INTENSITY OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

r • Increase in annual occurrence of +

high winds, heavy rains, storms surges & flash floods associated with tropical storms and tornados GREATER WEATHER VARIABILITY

• Greater instability in seasonal weather patterns

• Change in start and end of growing seasons

Source J<A()/JVRCB, 2008

Change in Food System Assets

• Food production assets

• Storage, transport and marketing infrastructure

• based livelihood assets

Agriculturally-• Non-farm livelihood assets

• Food preparation assets

Possibility of Migration and Conflict

Adaptive Responses of Foods Systems

Change in Food System Activities

• Shift away from grain fed livestock products

Change in Components of Food Security

• Change in caloric sufficiency of diets

• Change in nutritional value of diets

• Shift in proportion 1-+

of locally produced

• Increased in cadence

of water-borne diseases in flood- prone areas

foods in the diet

• Increase in consumption of new food items

• Reduction in consumption of wild foods

• Reduction in quantities and/or variety of food consumed

• Change in disease vectors and habitats for existing diseases

• Emergency of new diseases

I Change in Nutritional Status I

I

2.2.1.2 Cobb-Douglas Function

Cobb-Douglas functional form was introduced with the postulates in Just and Pope ( 1978, 1979) to approximate the average yield equation After that, this form was developed by Tveteras, R (2000) Kim and Pang (2009) had also applied the functional form to estimate climate change impact on rice yield and production risk These average yield functions were written as follows:

Cobb-Douglass (1)

where Xj is inputs including weather variables ~are the coefficients to be estimated T

is a time trend variable which represents the impact of the technological progress during the sample period Technological progress includes improved crop planting practices, adding fertilizer and pesticide application and applying new rice varieties

2.2.1.3 Simulation Approach

Matthews et al ( 1997) exhibited simulation approach to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia Then, Diakosavvas and Green (1998) used imitation approach with application to India to study the impact on consumption of food and the different variations Subsequently, Quinn (2002) emphasized simulation model that links food production, the requirements of the population consumption and sustainable development Later, Falcon et al (2004) investigated the relationship between climate change, supply and availability of food to improve Indonesia food security In recent years, Gerald et al (2010) also used this approach to research food security and climate change up to 2050 for the world, including developed countries and developing countries By approaching simulation, Pedercini et al (2012) examined the potential impacts of climate change on food security in Mali

2.2.1.4 Climate Change Scenarios: MORNE, IPSL-CM4, GISS-ER

• MORNE: Climate change scenanos are developed by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam These scenarios based on greenhouse gas emissions Climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation are built for seven geographic zones in Vietnam All these are North West, North East, North Delta, North Central, South Central, Central Highlands, and South The baseline period is 1980-1999 (MORNE, 2009)

• IPSL-CM4: Climate change scenarios are developed by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, France These couple four components of the Earth system: LMDZ-4 for atmospheric dynamics and physics, OP A for ocean dynamics, LIM for sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, and ORCHIDEE for the land surface The variables study as specific humidity (anomaly), precipitation flux (anomaly), air pressure at the sea level (anomaly), surface down-welling shortwave flux in air (anomaly), air temperature (anomaly), eastward wind (anomaly) and north wind (anomaly) (IPCC, AR4, 2007)

• GISS-ER: Climate change scenarios are developed by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace The variables examine as specific humidity, precipitation flux, air pressure at the sea level, surface down-welling shortwave flux in air, air temperature, eastward wind and north wind (IPCC, AR4, 2007)

2.2.2 Empirical Studies

So far, climate change and food security are hot topics Therefore, these issues attracted many researchers Among of them, some authors such as Matthews et al (1997), Aggarwal and Mall (2002), Chen et al (2005), Jane Kabubo-Mariara and Karanja (2007), Kim et al (2009), Jintian Wang (2010), Claudia Ringler et al (2010), Shen Shuang He et al (20 11) observed and studied the countries around the world In the case of Vietnam, there are also some researchers as Hoang et al (2008), Bingxin Yu et

al (2010), etc Although they have been applied different methods to study and find out the fmdings, but most of them have concluded that climate change impacts on food

production in reality The following table will be summarized some empirical studies related to this study

Table 2.1 Summary of Empirical Studies about Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security

Variables Techniques

R B Matthews - Panel data: Asia -Rice yield - Simulation models - An increase in C02 level was found to

et al (1997) -Temperature • Fixed-change increase yields increases in temperature

- C02 climate scenarios reduced yields

P K.Aggarwal, - Experiments time- -Rice yield - Scenarios and Crop - Rice yields increased between 1.0 and

R K Mall, series data: India -Temperature Models

16.8% in pessimistic scenarios of climate (2002) - Annually: 1980- -Level of • Climate change

change depending upon the level of

• Crop simulation management and model used These

increases were between 3.5 and 33.8% in models- Ceres-Rice

andORYZAIN optimistic scenarios

Chen et al - Panel data: -Rice yield -Stochastic - Weather variables affect not only

(2005) Taiwan - Temperature programming model average crop yield but also the variability

- Precipitation - Unit root tests and of crop yield

Jane Kabubo- - Cross-sectional - Crop revenue - Seasonal Ricardian - There is a non-linear relationship

Mariara, data: Kenya - Temperature model between temperature, precipitation and Fredrick K - Secondary data - Precipitation -Ricardian Analysis revenue

- The temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation

Hoang, V.Q et - Cross-sectional -Rice production -Desk study - The temperature increases in the hot

-Cereal - Field research

al (2008) data: Vietnam production season and decreases in the winter

- Primary data (Vu -Population - Higher rainfall in rainy season, lower Quang & Loc Ha -Rainfall

rainfall in dry season

district, Ha Tinh -Temperature

south and sea level is about 1 0 em higher than before

-Adjustment of crops system &

cultivation schedule to ensure harvesting before flood season

Kim, Man-Keun, - Panel data: Korea -Rice yield - Stochastic production - Rice yield is positively related to

ArwinPang - Annually: 1977- -Temperature function temperature & negatively associated with (2009) 2008 - Precipitation -Cobb-Douglas (CD)

precipitation

-Time trend functional form

- Linear quadratic (LQ) - The responsiveness is estimated as +0.8

~ +0.9 for temperature and - 0.14 form

-Unit root test ~ - 0.05 for precipitation

- Rice yield variability reveals may increase by up to 1 0%~ 20%

Jintian Wang - Dynamic panel - Per rural capita -POLS - CC will affect the food security

- Agriculture (Difference-GMM) year in China

disaster area - SYS-GMM -Sown area, etc GMM)

(System-Claudia Ringler -Predict data: Sub- -Temperature - Scenario - CCC scenario predicts consistently

et al (20 1 0) Saharan Africa - Precipitation - GCM (Global higher temperatures & mixed

-Up to 2050 -Crop yield Circulation Model) precipitation changes for the 2050 period (2000-2050) - Yield growth -CCC

- Per capita food (Comprehensive -Compared to historic climate scenario, demand Climate Change CC will lead to change in yield & area

Scenario) growth, higher food prices, reduce food

availability

Bingxin Yu - Cross-section -Rice yield - Simulation models - Rice production is likely to be severely

et al (2010) data: Vietnam -Labor • Climate change compromised by climate change

- VHLSS 2004,

- Fertilizer scenano

-Temperature • Crop simulation

by 2 7 million tons by 2050 under climate -Sea level model

- Irrigation - River basin model change

applied - Multilevel mixed - Crop yield reductions under climate per unit land effects model change vary widely across agro-

- Infrastructure - Biophysical Modeling ecological zones

- Household head - Cobb-Douglas characteristics function - The yield decline is estimated to be 4.3-

8.3 percent by 2050 in the Mekong River Delta

Shen Shuang - Experimental -Rice yield - Simulation models - In 2021-2050, B2 scenario comparing

I He et al time-series data, - C02 - IPCC SRES, B2 with the baseline ( 1961-1990): Without

statistical (20 11) data: China - Temperature scenano C02 fertilization effect considered, the

• C02 fertilization has a certain positive effect on rice yield

2.2.3 Conceptual Framework

The Figure 2.1 below shows the conceptual of the linkage between climate change and food security

Emission from carbon dioxide (C02), methane (C~), ozone (03), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide (N20), etc

is the cause of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere This leads to climate change

Climate change is interpreted through temperature, rainfall and sea level rises In detail, increase in mean temperature which

contains increase in maximum temperature on hot days, increase in minimum temperature on cold days, increase in annual occurrence of hot days and increase in frequency, duration, intensity of heat waves And gradual changes in rainfall which includes increase in frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts and changes in timing, location and amounts of rain

Consequently, agriculture production is effected by increasing in mean temperature, gradual changes in precipitation and

sea level rises Impacts of increasing in mean temperature on producing food such as immediate crop losses due to heat and

water stress, reduced labor productivity due to heat stress, trend impacts uncertain, conditional on location, availability of water and adoption of new cropping patterns by farmers, etc Impacts of changing in precipitation such as also immediate crop losses due to heat and water stress, trend declines in yields, change in irrigation requirements, increased soil erosion, etc Sea level rise also impacts on agriculture production as land loss, erosion patterns, salinity intrusion, etc

Agriculture production will impact on food supply side And so, food availability which includes production, distribution

and exchange will be impacted These reduces production of food crops in affected areas, decreases in food exports and increases in food imports, reduces food supply to causes market prices to rise, increased need for food aid, etc

•

However, adaptation to climate change will be impacted back on emission and agriculture as well

Figure 2.3 The Linkage between Climate Change and Food Security

Chapter 3 CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, FOOD SUPPLY AND

CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM

This chapter chiefly shows and analyzes the current situation of food demand and supply, and climate change Firstly, it investigates Vietnam's paddy statistics in the period from 1995 to 2010, including cultivated paddy area and paddy yields by regions

of Vietnam Then, it presents domestic rice consumption and rice exports volume of Vietnam Finally, it summarizes the analysis of climate parameters and sea level based

on observed data of MORNE

3.1 CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, AND FOOD SUPPLY

According to F AO (2008), the mainly items of food were com, rice, cassava, sweet potato, maize, meat, vegetable, egg, milk, etc However, this paper only studies paddy item The research concentrates on rice item as two reasons Firstly, Vietnam's lifestyles and diets, rice is one of the main grain for food in Vietnam Secondly, Vietnam is one of the largest rice exporters in the world Hence, food security in this research only focuses on the consideration of the balance of rice demand and rice supply

3.1.1 Paddy Production

Figure 3.1 Paddy Statistic in Vietnam, 1995-2010

"""l''!r-Average Yield (tons/ha)

Source: Author's drawing based on data from GSO, 2011

Figure 3.1 showed that in period 1995-2010, cultivated area increased slowly from nearly 6.8 million hectares in 1995 to 7.5 million hectares in 2010, and annual growth rate was about 0.67% on average (see figures in Appendix 1 ) In which, the annual growth was higher in the first period, in 1995-2000, after that, it was narrowed down about 0.19% in 2001-2010 on average The average rice yield increased over time with average growth was about 2.33% on average However, it was slowly growth rate in recent year As a result, over 15 years, the rice production increased from 25 million tones in 1995 and approximately 40 million tones in 2010 and the annual growth rate was 3.04% The annual growth was also greater in the first period with 4.54%, in 1995-2000 and it was slowly in 2001-2010, about 2.13% on average (see figures in Appendix 1 )

Figure 3.2 Cultivated Paddy Area by Regions of Vietnam, 1995-2010

11 Mekong River Delta (1,000 ha)

• South Central Coast (1,000 ha)

• Central Highlands (1,000 ha)

111 North Central & Central Coast (1,000 ha)

• Midland & Northern Mountain (1,000 ha)

• Red Delta (1,000 ha)

Source: Author's drawing based on datafrom GSO, 2011

The cultivated paddy land has reduced in the 2000s (see Figure 3.2) Although the cultivated area was increased in Midland and Northern Mountain, Central Highlands and Mekong Delta, but it was decreased in Red Delta, North Central & Central Coast and South Central Coast Consequently, the land lost about 153 thousands ha Some reasons lead to reduce the cultivated paddy land such as urbanization, climate change, etc The first reason was due to government policies The Vietnamese government constructed many industrial parks in our country to Vietnam's economic structure towards industrialization In 1997, the government issued a decree on regulation of industrial zones, processing zones production After that, the Vietnamese National Assembly promulgated some laws such as the Law on Enterprises (2000), Land Law (2003) and Investment Law (2005) The wave of urbanization has spread and direct impact on agriculture production On the other hand, in recent year, many golf courses have been built everywhere in Vietnam Thus, many fields have destroyed to carry out this objective The second reason was due to climate change Every year, Vietnam has