Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal aquaculture and fishing households to impacts of climate change in quy nhon city

i MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY HUYNH NGUYEN PHUC VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION OF COASTAL AQUACULTURE AND FISHING HOUSEHOLDS TO IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

HUYNH NGUYEN PHUC

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION OF COASTAL AQUACULTURE AND FISHING HOUSEHOLDS TO IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN QUY NHON CITY

MASTER THESIS

KHANH HOA – 2017

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

HUYNH NGUYEN PHUC

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION OF COASTAL AQUACULTURE AND FISHING HOUSEHOLDS TO IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN QUY NHON CITY

MASTER THESIS

and Climate Change Code:

Topic allocation Decision 772/QĐ-ĐHNT dated 20/9/2016

Decision on establishing the

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UNDERTAKING

I undertake that the thesis entitled: “Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal aquaculture and fishing households to impacts of climate change in Quy Nhon City” is my own work The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment

until the time this thesis is submitted

Nha Trang, April 28, 2017

Author

Huynh Nguyen Phuc

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I would like to express the deepest appreciation to the Graduate Study Faculty

of Nha Trang University for helping and giving me best conditions finish my thesis

My special thanks to Prof Jahn Petter Johnsen and Dr Nguyen Lam Anh for the continuous support of my Master study and research, for their patience, motivation, enthusiasm, and immense knowledge Their guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis

I also would like to acknowledge and thank to Norhed program, University

of Nha Trang and Tromso for giving me the opportunity to study Marine Ecosystem Management and Climate Change

Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family: my parents and to my brothers and sister for supporting me spiritually throughout writing this thesis

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Undertaking iii

Acknowledgement iv

Table of contents v

List of abbreviations ix

List of tables x

List of figures xi

Abstract xii

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Thesis objectives and research questions 4

1.2.1 Thesis objective 4

1.2.2 Research questions 4

CHAPTER 2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 6

2.1 Studies of climate change in Vietnam 6

2.2 The concepts of climate and climate change 7

2.3 Causes of climate change 7

2.4 Sustainable livelihood framework and climate change 8

2.5 Use sustainable livelihood framework to study impacts and adaptation to climate change 8

2.6 Livelihoods assets 8

2.7 Livelihood strategies 9

2.8 Livelihood outcomes 10

2.9 Institutions and policies 10 2.10 Vulnerability ability of coastal livelihoods to the impacts

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of climate change 11

2.11 Adaptation of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of climate change 11

CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY 13

3.1 Data Collection and Assessment 13

3.2 The field-survey method 13

3.3 Household interview 14

3.4 In-depth discussion 15

3.5 Key Informant Interviews 16

3.6 Data analysis and processing method 17

CHAPTER 4 FINDINGS ABOUT CHANGES 18

4.1 General information of study area 18

4.1.1 Natural and environmental characteristics of Nhon Ly commune 20

4.1.1.1 Geography 20

4.1.1.2 Climate 21

4.1.1.3 Hydrology 22

4.1.2 Production of Aquaculture and Captured Fishery 23

4.2 Climate change 25

4.2.1 Climate change trend in Vietnam in the 21st century 25

4.2 2 Serious impacts caused by climate change in coastal areas of Vietnam 27

4.2.3 Scenarios for climate change in Quy Nhon City 30

4.2.4 Consequences of the above scenario in Quy Nhon City 31

4.3 Marine ecosystem under context of climate change 31

4.4 Awareness of local people on impacts of extreme variations 34

4.4.1 Frequency 34

4.4.2 Impact of extreme variations 35

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4.4.2.1 Impacts on Aquaculture 36

4.4.2.2 Impacts on fishing 37

4.4.2.3 Impacts on property and people of fishing and aquaculture households 39

CHAPTER 5 CAPITAL BASED ADAPTATION CAPACITY 42

5.1 Natural capital 42

5.2 Human Capital 42

5.3 Physical capital 44

5.4 Financial capital 45

5.5 Social capital 47

CHAPTER 6 ADAPTATION MEASURES TAKEN BY FISHING, AQUACULTURE HOUSEHOLDS AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT 51

6.1 Adaptation in aquaculture 51

6.2 Adaptation in fishing 52

6.3 Livelihood change 54

6.4 Ecosystem–based adaptation 55

6.4.1 Locally managed marine area 55

6.4.1.1 Organizational structure 56

6.4.1.2 Implemented ativities 56

6.4.2 Establishment of fishery- tourism cooperative under co-management team 59 6.4.3 Activities of local government 60

6.4.3.1 Preparation and cope with extreme variations 61

6.4.3.2 Activities after storm and flood 62

CHAPTER 7 DISCUSSION 63

CHAPTER 8 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 66

8.1 Conclusion 66

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8.2 Recommendations for future research and for provincial and local goverment,

local aquaculture and fishing housholds 67

8.2.1 Monitoring, assessing and forecasting the impacts of climate change 67

8.2.2 Research and proposed measures for the wild fisheries 67

8.2.3 Aquaculture 68

8.2.4 Policy related solutions 68

8.2.5 International cooperation 69

REFFERENCES 70 APPENDICES

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LIST OFABBREVIATIONS

CPC Commune People’s Committee

CRSD Coastal Resources Sustainable Development

DARD Department of Agricultural and Rural Development DECAPFIREP Department of Capture and Fishery Resources Protection DONRE Department of Natural Resources and Environment LMMA Locally Managed Marine Area

MCS Monitor, Control and Surveillance

MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 4.1: Fisheries capture production in Quy Nhon City 20

Table 4.2: Aquaculture production of Quy Nhon City 20

Table 4.3: Types of capture 24

Table 4.4: Sea level rise scenario of Vietnam coastal area based on RCP scenario 27 Table 4.5: Biodiversity of Quy Nhon Bay 33

Table 4.6: Awareness of local people on frequency of extreme variations 34

Table 4.7: Awareness of local people on impacts of extreme variations on Aquaculture households 36

Table 4.8: Awareness of local people on impacts of extreme variations on fishing households 38

Table 4.9: Awareness of local people on impacts of extreme variations on property and people of fishing and aquaculture households 40

Table 5.1: Social and demographic characteristics of interviewed households’ members 43

Table 5.2: Fishing and aquaculture household’s assets with value of 3 million VND ormore 44

Table 5.3: Occupation of members in fishing and Aquaculture households 45

Table 5.4: Income of household 46

Table 5.5: Social classification due to income 47

Table 6.1: Adaptive measures of aquaculture households 52

Table 6.2: Adaptive measures of fishing households 53

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 3.1: Taking secondary data from relevant agencies 13

Figure 3.2: Ly Luong and Ly Hoa hamlets 14

Figure 3.3: Group interview (left) individual interview (right) 15

Figure 3.4: Two in-depth discussions 16

Figure 3.5: Key informant interview 16

Figure 4.1: Lobster seed hatchery area in Nhon Ly commune 24

Figure 4.2: Sea level rise has damaged and had impact on the coastal road 25

Figure 4.3: Annually average temperature change (oC) based on the scenario RCP4.5 26

Figure 4.4: Annually average temperature change (oC) based on the scenario RCP8.5 26

Figure 4.5: Coral reef ecosystem of Nhon Ly coastal Commune 32

Figure 4.6: Locally managed marine area (LMMA) – Quy Nhơn Bay 34

Figure 5.1: Establishement of Co-management team and MCS activities 49

Figure 6.1: Luxury resort of FLC Group in Nhon Ly Commune 55

Figure 6.2: Organizational structure 56

Figure 6.3: Community meeting for dissemination and awaness raise 57

Figure 6.4: Workshop on sharing LMMA implementation 57

Figure 6.5: Making survey on biodiversity in LMMA 58

Figure 6.6: Parking area and market supported by CRSD project in Nhon Ly 59

Figure 6.7: Tourist buoy and coral viewing raft of tourism cooperative 60

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ABSTRACT

Climate change is currently considered as a great challenge in the world Vietnam is regarded as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change Coastal areas like Quy Nhon City in Vietnam has experienced extreme weather and climate related variations like floods, drought, salt intrusion and sea level rise Coastal aquaculture and fishing households tend to be particularly vulnerable to impacts of climate change due to limited adaptation capacity They often live in areas that are severely affected by natural disasters while their livelihoods depend on resources adversely impacted by extreme variations Therefore, adaptive activities play a critical role in minimizing vulnerability, enhancing resistance to climate change and creating sustainable livelihoods This paper investigates vulnerability and adaptation of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of climate change at household level in Nhon Ly Commune The study is based on a survey, interviews and discussions among households in Nhon

Ly Commune in Quy Nhon City Findings showed that the intensity of extreme variations in Quy Nhon City is huge although they don’t frequently occur The extrenme variations have a severely impacts on local aquaculture and fishing households Furthermore, local people have learned how to adapt to changes in fishing and aquaculture although their awareness of extreme variations and adaptive measures

is still limited However, the capital-based adaptation in Nhon Ly commune is low in general despite its rich natural resources and good community there Finally, the results show that local people and relevant agencies are active in coping with the effects of extreme variations

Key words: Extreme variations, coastal fishing and aquaculture households,

livelihood, vulnerability, adaptation

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction

Climate change in form of increased average global temperature and sea level rise is considered as one of the greatest challenges of human in the 21st century (Dat, 2012) It is assumed that climate change will affect economy, society and environment Climate change may have serious impacts on production and life in the world although not all consequences are clear In particular, climate change in form of higher water temperature, acidification and sea level rise may strongly affect ecosystems and socio-economic activities in coastal areas (Monirul, 2013) The livelihood of coastal people depending on natural resources may be sensitive to climate change Even moderate sea level rise and increase in frequency or strength of storms make low islands and coastal plains particularly vulnerable (MARD, 2008) With about 40% of the world population living in coastal areas around the world, and still increase in the population, the coastal zones are under pressure The population increase in geographic areas exposed to natural disasters may increase the climate change vulnerability (Dat, 2012) Therefore, coastal resident’s capacity to cope with and adapt to climate change is important Moreover, coastal people livelihood is often in sectors that are sensitive to climate change, such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries Quite often the most vulnerable people have few other livelihood and work opportunities Therefore, if coastal people have limited capacity to adaptation and have their livelihood in a climate sensitive sector, they may be among those people who are most vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change This vulnerability may be due to lack of social and economic capital to cope with these changes Hence, reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change are of major importance for the households and the communities

Vietnam is exposed to climate change effects Vietnam is located in a region with

a complex climate, close to the equator in the South, adjacent to temperate region in the North Both tropical dry air from the North and hot, humid air from the South influence the climate of our country Therefore, the climate is both temperate and

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tropical On the other hand, the East and the South coast of Vietnam are adjacent to the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean The Western and Northern parts of the country are adjacent to Eurasia continent Thus, the climate has both oceanic and continental features It is these above factors combined with monsoon, and the tropical depressions that cause the storms that hit the East Sea and that makes Vietnam’s coast exposed to disasters (Piero, 2004)

Storms are important According to the Vietnam Assessment Report on Climate Change (ISPONRE, 2009), it has been shown that there are storms in the South China Sea almost every month, especially from May to November In this period there can be about 15 tropical low pressures and storms forming in the East Sea About 60% of the storms come from the Western Pacific, while 40 % of storms are formed and increase

in strength in the South China Sea Storm or tropical low pressure often happens every year (before 1975: 0.7, after 1975: 1.13) from September to December Moreover, strong and very strong storms have become more frequent All these storms and tropical low pressures have a direct impact on Vietnam's weather The storms bring with them heavy rain, causing flows and inundation in residential areas International studies have shown that Vietnam is considered as one of the countries that may be heavily affected by climate change (Dasgupta et al., 2007) Especially, the Mekong Delta is one of three areas in the world that are most vulnerable by sea level rise (ISPONRE, 2009)

Coastal areas and islands of Vietnam consist of three regions: North, Central and South All these areas are affected by climate phenomena Storms and tropical low pressure are prominent in the Central area, while floods and landslides are common in the coastal areas of North and Central (MONRE, 2016) Since it is in the coastal areas that are municipalities, the service sector and industries are localized and develop According to the report on Vietnam fisheries in 2015, Vietnam has 3,260 km of coastline and an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 200 nautical miles The production potential in the EEZ and the territorial waters are estimated to more than 3 million tons of seafood The dense system of bays, coastal lagoons, richness of aquaculture species, abundant labor resources provide coastal areas of Vietnam with good conditions of fishery development Sectors like tourism and fisheries are

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assumed to be affected by climate change in the future Capture of wild fish and aquaculture produce both for domestic consumption and export of fisheries products This creates jobs for fishermen and helps protect the security and sovereignty on the sea by maintaining operation of fishing vessels and civil activities on the sea Our authorities mean that “Fishermen are an extremely important force in marine economic development closely linking with national defense and security The presence of fishermen on the sea not only asserts the national sovereignty but also directly participate with the relevant forces in responding to every situation” (Ha et al, 2017) Quy Nhon City is located in the South of Binh Dinh Province, with a coastline of more than 40 km It is the economic, political and social center of the Binh Dinh Province Fishery is a key economic sector in the City However, Quy Nhon City has experienced extreme variations and weather related to phenomenon, such as: floods, drought, salt intrusion, sea level rise, etc the recent years (Huy, 2012) These events may also have caused human, natural and material damages

We may assume that global warming and sea level rise in the future can increase the frequency and level of inundation and flooding, accelerate coastal erosion and cause that sea water encroach into freshwater bodies Moreover, tidal water has deeply invaded into estuaries and river systems The fisheries and aquaculture sectors may be affected by climate change Areas for production can be affected by change in temperature and species composition may change Increased temperature can also cause ocean acidification that may affect the productivity in the ecosystems Thus, economic activities can be expected to be strongly affected by climate change in the future

Floods and storms may destroy infrastructure and have effect on activities in the coastal zone Since there are many coastal aquaculture and fishing households in Quy Nhon City, impacts of climate change can have consequences for the population Clearly, future climate change may in fact be one of the biggest challenges to coastal livelihood in Quy Nhon City These households have already experienced extreme variations in form of storms, temperature increase, heavy rain, flood, drought and sea level rise and salt intrusion (Huy, 2012) For example, the storms cause rain, high wind, and lead to flooding Wastewater treatment works and system of drains are

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destroyed by floods which make waste, garbage and waste water from toilets and breeding establishments directly overflow into and pollute the environment Finding ways to adapt to climate change is therefore a critical issue for the national, regional and local government as well as for the coastal households themselves

With the above reasons, the author conducts the research on “Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal aquaculture and fishing households to impacts of climate change

in Quy Nhon City” The purpose of this study is to evaluate how the impacts of climate on aquaculture and fishing activities are perceived by the local fishing population These perceptions may have relevance for their ability to adapt to long-term climate related changes Based on the findings, the author will propose reasonable solutions and strategies that may enhance fishermen’s ability to cope with more complex climate change in Quy Nhon City and in Binh Dinh Province

As a case for the master thesis, the author chooses the coastal commune Nhon Ly

of Quy Nhon City The selection of location to conduct research is based on two criteria: (i) the main livelihoods of these communes are aquaculture and fishing (ii) Aquaculture and fishing activities, fishery related households in the commune are impacted by weather conditions and potential climate change

1.2 Thesis objectives and research questions

1.2.1 Thesis objective

This study aims to identify perceptions weather and climate related changes and

of vulnerability and adaptive capacity by coastal aquaculture and fishing households in Quy Nhon City, and propose appropriate adaptive strategies

1.2.2 Research questions

In order to achieve the objectives, this study will answer the following research questions: What are the reported frequencies and impacts of climate change variations

on coastal aquaculture and captured fisheries in Nhon Ly Commune, Quy Nhon City?

• How do the coastal aquaculture and fishing households perceive and deal with weather and potential climate change impacts?

• How is capital-based adaptive capacity of aquaculture and fishing households?

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• What can be the appropriate adaptation measures?

• Do provincial and local governments have appropriate adaptation measures? The structure of the thesis is as follows Chapter 2 defines concepts and describes some indicators for climate change, it presents the analytical framework I used the sustainable livelihood framework to study adaptation to climate change In Chapter 3, the methods used in the research are described Chapter 4 presents findings about change Chapter 5 presents findings about fishing and aquaculture household’s capacity in climate change adaptation through five capitals Chapter 6 presents findings about adaptation measures taken by fishing, aquaculture households and local government In Chapter 7 the results are discussed Finally, Chapter 8 concludes and

outlines some recommendations

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CHAPTER 2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 2.1 Studies of climate change in Vietnam

In general, two aspects applied in the studies about vulnerability and adaptation

of coastal households to climate change are identified as follows: (i) coastal livelihoods in the world and Vietnam are coping with challenges caused by consequences of climate change; (ii) households need to implement proactive activities

in adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the world and in Vietnam These studies have been done by Shelton (2014), Gbetibouo (2009), Islam (2013), Marshall

et al (2010), MONRE (2016), Dat et al (2012),Huy (2012), etc

It is recognized that previous studies on vulnerability and adaptation of coastal households to climate change mainly mentioned to the following main issues: (i) livelihood capital analysis of the coastal households; (ii) how climate change has been happening and scenarios of climate change in coastal areas in the future are predicted; (iii) who is most severely impacted by consequences caused by climate change in coastal areas; (iv) awareness of coastal households on the frequency and intensity of climate change on their livelihood; (v) assessment of vulnerability and impacts of climate change on fishery- based livelihood; (vi) activities of coastal households at all levels in climate change adaptation; and (vii) recommendations for local people and governments in coping with risks of climate change

Main findings from these studies include: (i) capital–based adaptive capacity of coastal households is weak, (ii) Currently, climate change is more and more severe and unusual; (iii) those who are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change women, the elderly, and children; (iv) local people’ awareness on climate change is limited in general, (v) impacts of climate change make production activities differently vulnerable mate change, (vi) local people has applied flexible changes to deal with impacts of climate change; and (vii) some adaptive livelihood strategies in fisheries as well as government policies to support households to improve their adaptive capacity have been proposed for coastal communities

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Although some studies (Huy, 2012; IWE, 2009) on impacts of climate change in Quy Nhon City have been conducted, such issues as vulnerability and adaptation capacity of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of climate change have not been addressed in a comprehensive manner to provide a basis for the development of sustainable and adaptive livelihoods for coastal fishing and aquaculture households

2.2 The concepts of climate and climate change

Weather is what’s happening outside at a given location, which is identified through factors, such as: temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, rain, etc Climate is the average of weather observation during many years “usually 30 years” (Dat, 2012) It is identified by accurate meteorological parameters in long term and at

a given place, such as: temperature, precipitation, etc Moreover, climate is influenced

by geographical factors and ocean currents The weather change daily and can occur as unstable Climate change is more than weather variations, it is a long- term change overwide areas The change can be measured over long time Changes can be caused

by natural and human factors Climate change is currently expressed by global warming, sea level rise and increase of extreme variations, namely: flood, drought, storms (MONRE, 2009)

It is also necessary to distinguish between climate variability and climate change Climate variability occurs over seasons and years For example, it is colder in some summers and more precipitation in some years Meanwhile, climate change is a long-term continuous increase or decrease of average weather conditions (e.g average temperature) or the extreme weather (e.g drought, storms, etc) While climate variability can be perceived year-to-year, climate change is a slow and gradual change over several decades

2.3 Causes of climate change

There are can be many factors behind climate change The natural factors including continental drift, volcanic eruption, oceans, clouds, wildfires directly affect climate of the earth in different ways (Trang, 2012) However, human activity gives a main contribution to climate change through over emission of CO2 and other green house gases of which the Earth can’t absorb all If there are no greenhouse gases in the

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atmosphere, the average temperature on the Earth is 0o F (equivalent to -18oC), the Earth’s surface is frozen and life on the earth can’t exist However, when greenhouse gases are much emitted in the atmosphere and the Earth can’t absorb the residue amount, the average temperature on the Earth will increase, which result in climate change (USAID, 2009)

2.4 Sustainable livelihood framework and climate change

Sustainable livelihoods framework consists of five elements that together interact These are: (i) livelihood assets; (ii) livelihood strategies, (iii) livelihood outcomes, (iv) institutions and policies at different levels, (v) external factors The framework describes the methods households can use sustain living based on the existing livelihood assets under certain conditions, institutions and policy The assets are impacted by external factors, such as: shocks (storm, flood, conflict between resource users, etc), trends (changes in temperature and rainfall, increased poverty, etc) and seasonality (change on price, production activities, etc.) (DFID, 2001)

2.5 Use sustainable livelihood framework to study impacts and adaptation to climate change

Climate change is a key factor increasing the vulnerability of coastal communities Therefore the sustainable livelihood framework is a useful framework for study impacts and adaptation to climate change First of all, climate change does affect livelihood assets, especially natural capital (such as land, water, and fisheries resources) and physical capital (such as roads, irrigation systems, and power network) They are all sensitive to climate change When the livelihood assets are vulnerable to the impact of climate change, livelihood strategies will be affected, which in turn will affect livelihood outcomes In the context that climate change is increasingly complex

in the future (DFID, 2001)

2.6 Livelihoods assets

The livelihood assets of fishery-dependent people can be grouped into five categories: natural, physical, human, financial and social capital Human access to livelihood assets is considered as central element in the approach to sustainable

livelihood

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Natural capital includes the available resources in the natural environment that people can use to carry out livelihood activities, such as land, coastal resources, water resources, etc Natural capital in the fisheries sector are natural resources that fishermen whose livelihoods depend on fisheries rely on for living Physical capital includes system of infrastructure (fishing port, landing site, road, houses, schoold, markets, etc) and production equipment supporting livelihood activities (fishing gears, processing equipment, etc)

Financial capital includes the various sources that people use to achieve livelihood objectives including cash, loans, and other income, etc Residents of coastal communities are very difficult to access loans because they do not have valuable assets

as collateral They can only receive high-interest loans with terms unfavorable to them Therefore, those whose income depends on fisheries often lack the financial ability to cope with the difficulties when incident occurs due to impact of climate change

Human capital includes the skills, knowledge, educational level, experience of production, working ability, health, etc which help people to perform various livelihood activities and achieve desired livelihood outcomes ”Human capital is essential to effectively using the other four types of capital” (Monirul, 2013)

Social capital includes the social relationships and networks (political and civil organizations, members of communities) on which people rely on to implement livelihood activities ”Social capital enables people to build collective actions and act together more effectively to pursue shared objectives” (Monirul, 2013)

2.7 Livelihood strategies

Livelihood activity is how households use the available livelihood capital to earn living and meet the need of life Households with the socio-economic characteristics and the different livelihood assets should have the different choice of livelihood models The livelihood activities which can be done are agriculture production, fisheries and aquaculture, trade, etc

Livelihood strategies of households reflect how a household use the possible assets to meet the requirements of livelihood We can review case of livelihoods in the

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fisheries sector in which a fishing household seeks food and creates income through fishing To do that, the household need to use a few possible assets as follows:

- Physical assets include vessels, fishing boats, fishing nets, jetties, roads

- Human assets include knowledge and experience in fishing, health and labor

- Natural resources include fish captured from the sea, marine ecosystems (coarl reef, mangrove, seagrass, etc.)

- Financial assets include money borrowed from the budget, relatives or the collectors,etc

Because income from one source is often uncertain, a household should have several different methods to seek food, a few different sources of income, or a few different ways to create income Activities can always change or change to adapt certain events like rain, storm or in stages of scarce income sources These activities include livelihood strategies of households A very important thing is that in coastal communities there may have several different household groups with the different socio-economic characteristics of and various approaches to different resources So they will have different livelihood issues and solutions (DFID, 2001)

2.8 Livelihood outcomes

The livelihood outcomes including poverty reduction, well-being, employment possibility, adaptation capacity to risks and sustainability of natural resource base are the achievements that households get when combining the different livelihood capitals

to implement livelihood activities Livelihood outcomes mainly include increased income, improved well-being, reduced risk, enhanced food security, more effective use

of resources, etc (DFID, 2001)

2.9 Institutions and policies

Institutions, laws and policies play an important role in the successful implementation of livelihood They are developed and operated at all levels, from the household level to higher level, such as: regional, national, etc Institutions and policies can decide access to livelihood capitals and the implementation of the livelihood activities of individuals, households and others (DFID, 2001)

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2.10 Vulnerability ability of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of climate change

Natural resources play a very important role to the poor fishermen who much depend on fish stock and marine ecosystem Meanwhile, natural resources, such as: land and water are easy to be hurt by climate change In addition, infrastructures such as: system of dikes, irrigation, fishing ports and landing sites, boats and gear, etc are physical capital which is easy to be affected by the impacts of climate change That climate change impact on physical assets can result in financial loss Households may displace and resettle when the physical capital (such as: infrastructure; fishing boat and gear) is damaged, which lose cost Conflicts between resource users may be created by climate change, which may harm the social relationship among households as well as fishing communities Weather extreme events (such as: cyclones, floods, storm, etc.) may make fishers harmful even loss of life, which can affect social- economic activities of other members in the household or seriously affecting physical ability of fishers in getting their livelihoods How households select livelihood strategies and achieved livelihood outcomes will be affected by the impacts of climate change on the livelihood assets

Climate change makes the livelihoods which rely on the natural resources of coastal communities easier to get vulnerability Fishing and aquaculture are main livelihoods of the poor in coastal areas who mainly rely on natural assets to implement livelihood strategies (Dat, 2012)

2.11 Adaptation of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of climate change

The ability to cope with climate change is factor to assess the adaptation capacity

of a community to climate change not only to reduce vulnerability and damages that may occur caused by climate change but also to take opportunities brought by climate change The adaptation capacity to climate change much impacts the vulnerability possibility of a certain area "One area will be more vulnerable if its adaptive capacity

is low However, high adaptive capacity doesn’t mean that the region is not vulnerable

to the impacts of climate change” (Dat et al, 2012)

There are several types of adaptive strategies They can be categorized in the following way:

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Based on the time when adaptive measures are carried out:

Anticipatory adaptation: The damage caused by the impact of climate change

can be avoided if communities and households proactively implement adaptation activities This is a proactive strategy based on observation, perception and anticipation It requires knowledge and capacity to understand and analyze a situation

Reactive adaptation: After the impact of climate change has occurred and caused

the damage, communities and households carry out reactively adaptive activities to mitigate loss It requires resources to understand and mitigate consequences (Smith and Wandel, 2006)

Based on policy on which individuals and organizations rely to carry out adaptive measures:

Autonomous adaptation: When the impacts of climate change occur, relevant

individuals and organizations will deal with through a temporary and spontaneous changes made in the short term Hence, passive adaptation is usually carried out in short term to cope with impacts of climate change without policy consideration

Planned adaptation: Relevant individuals and organizations will be involved in

planning, selecting and applying appropriate policies to have proactive and strategic solutions in limiting the consequences caused by climate change Therefore, active adaptation consists of long–term strategic changes to resolve the risks related to climate change (USAID, 2009)

Based on those who carry out adaptive activities:

Private adaptation: Individuals, households and enterprises themselves

implement adaptive measures One of the key policies is building capacity for households on climate change

Public adaptation: Central and local government implement adaptive measures

Government plays a vital role in creating enable policy, financial and legal frameworks, sharing experience and raising public awareness on climate change (Dat

et al, 2012)

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CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY 3.1 Document collection from relevant agencies

Relevant documents are assessed to supplement data They are collected from official and unofficial documents, statistical report, research report, experience, which are provided by DARD, DECAFIREP, DONRE (Trang, 2012)

Figure 3.1: Taking secondary data from relevant agencies

3.2 The field-survey method

The author carried out a survey in the fishing community in the whole commune where extreme variations frequently occur After consulting the recommendations of the management staffs at the provincial level, such as: DECAFIREP, DONRE, People's Committee of Quy Nhon City, the author selected Ly Luong and Ly Hoa hamlets as the representative study areas The thesis has chosen the period 2011-2015 for the study because there have been many extreme variations that strongly impact on livelihood of the households during the period when the results show changes in frequency and intensity of extreme variations, assess adaptive capacity of the households through changes in livelihoods or use of the experiences in their life to cope with impacts of extreme variations For example, there are, in 2012, some storms and low tropical depressions consecutively occur and cause great damages on human and property in Quy Nhon (Quy Nhon PC, 2012) The historical timeline is five years

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compared with the present time (2016) because if the historical timeline is too long, the interviewee will forget what happened, which make the information inaccurate and not reliable (Clare, 2014)

After the study areas were selected, the author would continue to collect additional data and relevant document provided by People's Committee of Nhon Ly Commune

Figure 3.2: Ly Luong and Ly Hoa hamlets

3.3 Household interview

After identifying the research area and consulting the relevant agencies, questionnaire were prepared to achieve the research objectives There are six major parts in the questionnaires The first section provided with general information about households The second section addressed occupations of each member in households The third section identified production activities of each household The fourth part assessed awareness of households on frequency and intensity of extreme variations occurring in their hamlet The next part was designed to capture their capital based adaptive capacity Finally, the last was used to evaluate adaptive measures and their suggestions to local and provincial government After completing the questionnaire, seven local people were invited to participate in a face to face discussion in order that feasibility of the questionnaire was tested and unnecessary questions were eliminated According to the outcomes of the discussion, the questionnaire was modified to provide information to meet the survey objectives (Monirul, 2012) The questionnaire could be seen in Appendix A

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Figure 3.3: Group interview (left) individual interview (right) The interviewed households were representatives among total 75 households of aquaculture in Ly Luong hamlet and 206 households of fishing in Ly Hoa hamlet All the interviewed households have been influenced by extreme weathers, and include rich, middle income and poor households

The survey aimed towards a representative coverage of the fishing and aquaculture households in terms of economic activity, living standards, geographical location, etc A sample size of 65 fishing households and 40 aquaculture households among the total households in the study villages would be randomly selected for household’s questionnaire interviews in order to capture the required information With the assistance of village governments, respective households were randomly selected using village registers from households included perceptions of climate change and its influence on various livelihood activities, household and existing adaptive strategies to impact of climate change (Huy, 2012)

3.4 In-depth discussion

After interviewing households, the author continued to conduct some in-depth discussions to clearly learn the livelihood activities, experience and perceptions of local people on impacts of extreme variations and coping with the impacts of climate change (Trang, 2012)

Figure 3.5: Key informant interview

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3.6 Data analysis and processing method

Data collected from the household interview were encoded Processed data demonstrate how perception of fishermen on frequency and intensity of extreme variation in the period 2011-2015 In addition, adaptation measures taken by fishing, aquaculture households and local government were also displayed Microsoft Excel was applied to process and analyze the data (Trang, 2012)

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CHAPTER 4 FINDINGS ABOUT CHANGES 4.1 General information of study area

According to the General Planning Adjustment of Quy Nhon City until 2020

(Quy Nhon PC, 2012), we can get some following information:

Quy Nhon City is located in the South of BinhDinh province, with a coastline of more than 40 km and population of more than 268,000 people The West and North have border with and are separated from Tuy Phuoc by Ha Thanh River, the South has border with and is separated from Phu Yen Province by the mountain Cu Mong extending as far as the sea, the East Sea is located in the East

Quy Nhon City includes ten communes along the seaside, and Nhon Chau island commune The diverse terrain of the City comprises mountains, plains, coastal dunes and islands The topography affects the weather and causes heavy rain, high winds and flooding On the other hand, the mountainous terrain is very short and steep and do not prevent flooding It is also easily eroded; however, the water disappears fast if it stops raining, which makes it constantly hot Therefore, Quy Nhon City is exposed to many types of disasters, such as: storm, flood, heavy rain, etc

It is expected that Quy Nhon City will expand in the future to include about 7 districts including 30 wards and communes with the area of 335 km2 and population of

500 thousand people The city will extend as far as North and Northwest to Phu Cat district and Tuy Phuoc district include: Dieu Tri town, a part of Cat Tien commune, a part of Cat Hai commune under Phu Cat district and Phuoc An, Phuoc Thanh, Phuoc Thuan, Phuoc Son and Phuoc Hoa, Phuoc Thang of Tuy Phuoc district

Quy Nhon City is also the economic, political and social center of the BinhDinh province In recent years, Quy Nhon City has undergone a rapid urbanization and industrialization In the future, QuyNhon is oriented to become the city of Industry and Services

Institute of Social and Environmental Transformation (ISET), United States conducted the research on assessment of the vulnerability and impacts of climate change in Quy Nhon City (ISET, 2012) According to the report, Quy Nhon city has

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been severely affected by natural disasters that may be caused by climate change There is for example an observed increase in hurricanes On average, before 1975 the ratio of hurricanes per year in months IX -XII were 0.7; after 1975, the ratio increased

to 1.13 occurred The main secondary effects included coastal erosion, heavy rain, high wind which caused flooding and environmental pollution Rainfall in this place is high, the average rainfall is 1846 mm, 137 rainy days/year focused from the months I-XII (80% in whole year) The most dangerous secondary effects included flooding, coastal erosion that directly may impact, drainage, transport and irrigation Drought frequently occurs and the temperature is high in the dry season Because greater evaporation prolongs and the terrain is steep and short, water is not stored during the rainy season; the dry season became longer and lasted for eight months (I-VIII) Moreover, saltwater intrusion and drought occur in parallel when the upstream waters

of the two rivers Con and Ha Thanh have low water levels The recent years, the average temperature during the dry season has increased, the average temperature during six months was higher than 28o; (the normal is 24,5o C) drought and strong evaporation will make the temperature rise disaster

One of the most important livelihoods in the coastal communes is fisheries In the period 2010 – 2016, the contribution of fisheries to GDP in Binh Dinh province was from 9.1% - 9.8% (at current price) or accounted for 7.5% - 9.0% (compared prices)

In the period 2010 - 2016, the average growth of province's export turnover yield is 36.0%/year; in which the fishery export yield increase on average is 24.2% / year, is accounted for 9.5% of total export yield of the province in 2016 Moreover, the fisheries sector provides jobs for about 63,000 persons per year The increase in the fisheries sector has improved the lives of local people in aquaculture, capture and seafood processing Particularly, Quy Nhon City has the highest fishing production in the province through the years

Along with the rapid speed of economic development of the Quy Nhon coastal areas, aquaculture and fisheries capture are one of the key economic sectors of Quy Nhon City in particular and Binh Dinh Province in general (See the Table 4.1 and the Table 4.2) However, it may be affected by climate change Therefore, development

of adaptive capacity in the coastal aquaculture and fishing sector as well as in coastal

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households to be able to cope with the impacts of climate change in Quy Nhon City is important both for the sustainable development of fisheries in particular and the economy in general in Quy Nhon City In the next section I will more detailed present the conditions in Nhon Ly Commune

Table 4.1: Captured fisheries production in Quy Nhon City

Unit: Ton

No District, City

Captured fisheries production in

Quy Nhon city

The average increase (%/year)

Source: Statistics of BinhDinh DECAFIREP in the period 2005-2013

Table 4.2: Aquaculture production of Quy Nhon City

Source: Statistics of Binh Dinh Aquaculture Sub-Department in the period 2012-2015

4.1.1 Natural and environmental characteristics of Nhon Ly commune

4.1.1.1 Geography

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Nhon Ly commune is the coastal commune located in the Phuong Mai peninsula toward Northeast which far 22 km from the centre of Quy Nhon City The total natural land area is 1,535ha in which area of land for living is 40.11 ha, the rest is mostly hilly and unused land

The commune has border with South of Phu Cat, North of Nhon Hai, East of Nhon Hoi and is bounded by Sea East in the East Residential area is planned in each cluster of hamlets which are mainly bounded with the sea, so it is often impacted by climate change

Total average rainfall during many years is 1807mm

The rainy season starts in September and end in December The dry season is January ÷ August

Rainy season occurs within four months, but rainfall is accounted for 70% of annual rainfall Dry season occurs within 8 months, but rainfall is accounted for 20 

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The area has two main windy seasons in winter and summer Summer is from April to September, the prevailing wind direction is Eastern and Southeast direction (accounted for 8.64%) Winter is from October to March next year, the prevailing wind direction is Northwest (11.13%) and North (15.31%) The average wind speed is about (2  4) m/s When storm occurs, wind speeds may be up to 40m/s (Nhon Ly

CPC, 2016)

Storm

Stormy season here are from September to November, October is the time when most storms occur Every year, there is about one storm directly come into BinhDinh Rain and storm are the main natural disasters serious damaging people and fishing gears here Stormy season combined with the rainy season increases the severity of flooding during stormy season

In previous years, possibility of having more than 1 storm per year was little (since 1978 there are 7 storms) But in recent years, due to the unusual situation of the weather, the possibility of having (34) storms in per year is more likely to occur The scope of storm is very broad When storm occurs, is is often accompanied with wind and heavy rain causing flood in a large scale, combined with high tide combined to cause thunderstorms, cyclones which are very dangerous and cause serious consequences on people and property of fishermen in the coastal provinces Especially, rainfall in the storm could reach to (200250) mm/day (Nhon Ly CPC, 2016)

Thunderstorm

Thunderstorm in Quy Nhon city occurs from April to October, mainly from May

to September The thunderstorm is often accompanied by strong wind, sometimes rain together with strong intensity occurs, which damage fishing boats operating on sea (Nhon Ly CPC, 2016)

4.1.1.3 Hydrology

a The temperature and salinity of sea water

Average water surface temperature of the Quy Nhon coastal area in winter (from

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December to February) fluctuates from 23,750 C in the North to 24,50 in the South, in Spring (from March to May) fluctuates from 26,50 C to 270 C, in Summer (from June

to August) fluctuates from 28.5 0C to 280 C and in Autumn is 280 C

Average salinity in winter fluctuates from 33.3% to 33.4 ‰, in Spring is about 33.75 %, in Summer fluctuates from 33.25 % to 33.75 %, in Autumn fluctuates from 31.50% to 32.5 % In general, the temperature gradually increased (Nhon Ly CPC, 2016)

b Water Classification

Situated in the general context of the Central coastal area, coastal area of Quy Nhon City is the place where there is mixture among three main types of water, namely continental waters which are mainly from the Gulf of Tonkin, offshore surface water of the North of Sea East and upwelling from high salty water below the surface (Nhon Ly CPC, 2016)

c Tide

Tidal waters of Quy Nhon coastal area is under mixture mode Tidal oscillation scale reaches approximately (0.5 to 2.5) m The annual average size of tide in Quy Nhon is 105cm, maximum of year is 178 cm and the minimum is 36cm The average water level during years is 157 cm

d Wave

In winter, wave mainly moves in the North direction, sometimes moves to the North East The average wave height is (0.75 ÷ 1.00) m, the highest wave is (4 ÷ 5) m., average wave height is 2.3m

In summer (from May to September) wave mainly move in South West direction, average height of wave is (0.50 ÷ 0.75) m, the highest wave (2.5 ÷ 3.5) m (Nhon Ly CPC, 2016)

4.1.2 Production of Aquaculture and Fishing

Based on social - economic data provided by Binh Dinh DECAFIREP in 2014,

we can see the livelihood of local people in Nhon Ly commune mainly relies on the coastal aquaculture and fishing activities Fishing community mainly focuses on

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capture in Nhon Ly coastal area The fishing methods are hand line, net, lift net for lobster juvenile, trap for lobster juvenile Main captured species are mackerel,

anchovy, shrimp, lobster, scad (See the table 4.3)

Table 4.3: Types of capture

No Typesofcapture Numberofhous

eholds

Captured Species

Fishingground

1 Hand line 8 Mackerel Nhon Ly coastal area

2 Net 5 Anchovy Nhon Ly coastal area

3 Trap for lobster juvenile

Nhon Ly coastal area

5 Lift net for lobster

juveniles 278

Lobster seed

Nhon Ly coastal area

6 Purse seine 193 Anchovy Quy Nhon coastal area

7 Fishing line net 149 Scad Quy Nhon coastal area

8 Nilon gillnet

2 Mackerel,

tuna

Quy Nhon coastal area

9 3- layer gillnet 138 Anchovy Nhon Ly coastal area

Source: Statistics of Binh Dinh DECAFIREP in 2014

Lobster seed hatchery area located in Bai Dinh zone, Nhon Ly commune, with surface water covers an area of 3.3 ha; in 2014, there are 114 households, 60 rafts, total volume of hatchery is 919 m3 In addition to lobster seeds, they also rise a

combination of other subjects such as: gastropod mollusk (Babylonia areolata), in an

area of 3,600 m2; Chinese black sleeper/swimming crab/squid, in an area of 50 m2

Figure 4.1: Lobster seed hatchery area in Nhon Ly commune

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Compared to 15-20 years ago, the tide has increased and the water level is now closer to the local people Years ago, the local households in the coastal area lived approximately 500 meters away, the water surface was about two to three meters lower than now The phenomenon of tidal erosion has destroyed houses and some public infrastructure In particular, according to the report of the assessment on the vulnerability and impacts of climate change in Quy Nhon City done by the Institute for Water and Environment (IWE), the local fishermen community at the coastal commune is affected by the impacts of climate change (Huy, 2012)

Figure 4.2: Sea level rise has damaged and had impact on the coastal road

4.2 Climate change

4.2.1 Climate change trend in Vietnam in the 21st century

MONRE 2016 has developed two climate change scenarios for Vietnam

Based on the scenario RCP4.5, annual average temperature across the country at the beginning of the 21st century has a common increase of between 0.6 and 0.8 degree Celsius; in the middle of the century, it increases 1.3-1.7 degree Celsius; by the end of the century, it increases 1.7-2.4 degree Celsius In general, the northern temperature increases higher than the South (MONRE, 2016)

Based on the scenario RCP8.5, the annual average temperature across the country

at the beginning of the century has a common increase of 0.8-1.1 degree Celsius; in the middle of the century it increases 2.0-2.3 degree Celsius in the North and 1.8-1.9 degree Celsius in the South; by the end of the century it increases 3.3-4.0 degree Celsius in the North and 3.0-3.5 degree Celsius in the South (MONRE, 2016)

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a) on mid-century 21st b) on the end of century 21stFigure 4.3: Annually average temperature change (oC) based on the scenario RCP4.5

Source: Scenarios for climate change and sea level rise in Vietnam published by MONRE in 2016

a) on mid-century 21st b) on the end of century 21stFigure 4.4: Annually average temperature change (oC) based on the scenario RCP8.5

Source: Scenarios for climate change and sea level rise in Vietnam published by MONRE in 2016

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The average sea level may rise by 35 cm by 2050, by 50 cm by 2070 and 01 meter by 2100 Rainfall in the rainy season in most regions, especially in the Central increases by 5 - 10% at the above time, but rainfall in dry season in many regions may decrease by 0 - 5%, so the flood in the rainy season and drought in the dry season in some areas may be more severe, especially under the conditions of El Nino and La Nina

Table 4.4: Sea level rise scenario of Vietnam coastal area based on RCP scenario

21 (13÷ 32)

26 (16 ÷39)

30 (18÷ 45)

35 (21÷ 52)

40 (24 ÷59)

44 (27÷ 66)

(8÷18)

17 (10÷ 25)

22 (14÷ 32)

28 (17 ÷40)

34 (20 ÷48)

40 (24 ÷57)

46 (28 ÷66)

53 (32 ÷76)

(8÷17)

17 (11÷ 24)

22 (14 ÷32)

27 (18 ÷39)

34 (22 ÷48)

41 (27 ÷58)

48 (32÷ 69)

56 (37 ÷81)

(9÷18)

18 (12÷ 26)

25 (17 ÷35)

32 (22 ÷46)

41 (28 ÷58)

51 (34÷ 72)

61 (42÷ 87)

73 (49÷103)

Source: Scenarios for climate change and sea level rise in Vietnam published by MONRE in 2016

According to the above climate change and sea level rise scenarioes, climate change is likely to change the frequency, intensity, and behavior of extreme variations The number of storms and tropical depressions tends to be less changed but more concentrated at the end of the stormy season ahen storm mainly occurs in the South Strong storms tend to increase The number of hot days tends to increase in the majority of the country, mainly in the North Central, South Central and South Drought may become more severe in some areas due to temperature increase and rainfall reduction during the dry season

4.2 2 Serious impacts caused by climate change in coastal areas of Vietnam

Coastal areas in Vietnam are severely affected by climate change (Dat, 2012) Climate change represents a challenge for socio-economic development in the coastal

areas of Vietnam

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Temperature increase

Temperature increase affects natural ecosystem, shift the thermal boundary of

continental ecosystems and freshwater ecosystems and may affect the composition of plants and animal species in some areas Temperature change may result in reduced

Temperature increase also affects other sectors, such as: energy, transportation, industry, construction, tourism, commerce, etc, which is related to the increased cost

of cooling and ventilation, preservation and operation of equipment, facilities

Sea temperature increase

Science indicates that the world's sea temperature increases Sea temperature is expected to continue to increase in all layers of waters even if people get agreement on stopping to adding extra greenhouse gases to the atmosphere now Warmer sea waters may lead to more serious extreme weather, cause more powerful tropical storms and impact many kinds of marine aquatic species, such as corals and fish Furthermore, sea temperature increase is also one of the main causes of sea level rise (MONRE, 2016)

Sea level rise

Vietnam has coastline of 3,260km, more than one million km2 of territorial sea and more than 3,000 islands near the shore and two offshore islands, many coastal lowlands These areas are seriously suffered from flood in the rainy season and