Once Its rationale, collective defense poses new challenge to a larger NATO

This News Report Assignment collected information about what both sides, especially Russia responded after that incident. The sources are various and mostly come from newspaper and online news.

I.Introduction

In 1990, Georgia voted to abolish the autonomy of South Ossetia, and by 1991 the ethnic antagonists were fighting In 1992, Georgia and Russia signed a peace treaty and Russian troops began patrolling the South Ossetia border That same year, Abkhazia declared its independence from Georgia and another war was fought; it ended in 1994 with a treaty between Russia and Georgia Russian troops then began patrolling that enclave too In August 8 th , Georgia launched a surprise operation last week to seize control

of South Ossetia Russia sent it’s military into the breakaway republics and bombed Georgia proper Many Western experts have predicted that Russia would stage some sort of military action since Mikheil Saakashvili was elected president of Georgia in 2004 As part of his platform, he said he wanted to reincorporate the enclaves into Georgia Most experts agreed that Russia would respond with force if that happened No one knows how far Russia is planning to go, though continued clashes suggest that its goal goes beyond just protecting the enclaves.

This News Report Assignment collected information about what both sides, especially Russia responded after that incident The sources are various and mostly come from newspaper and online news We spend times to watch, read and analyzed them to choose the pieces of news that fit our purpose Since the work

is not too much, dividing it to each group’s member was not easy But we tried to make those shares to be equal We keep in touch with each other by the internet, because we didn’t have much time in class, there were other things that needed to be concerned The toughest part is summarizing the information and arranged them in a logical order We chose to put the news and summaries in the order of the date There were some discussion and argument during the process It took us a lot of time just to solve and find a solution for each person ideas However, our group still managed to complete this Assignment There are

5 people in our group:

Nguyễn Hoàng Linh

Lê Thị Hồng Nhung

Lê Hoàng Sơn

Đỗ Như TrungNguyễn Thị Ngân

II.Body

II.1.Summaries of News:

II.1.1.Russia never wants a war

According to the former President of USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev, Russia did not want this crisis Russia was dragged into it by the recklessness of the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili who definitely would not have dared to attack without outside support And Russia had no choice but to react, and the president did it calmly, confidently and firmly, what made all those expected confusion in Moskva disappointed He stressed that Georgia attacked first, caused thousands of dead to the people of South Ossetia, force them to flee from their home, and yet the Russia was accused of aggression

The expanding of NATO to the East, the assistance in Georgian’s military training of the Western, all the shipping large supply of arms have encourage Georgian’s leader toward a military misadventure

Unfortunately, innocent people had to pay the price Mr Gorbachev also mentioned the threats which are from US and EU to isolate Russia, expel her from the G8, and keep her out of WTO are all empty There

is much talk in the US about rethinking relations with Russia But the 2 country should consider the interests of the other side and of common security, it may actually help rebuild trust between Russia and the US and allow them to start doing useful together to solve the crisis.

20-8 (New York Times)

II.1.2.Once Its rationale, collective defense poses new challenge to a larger NATO

NATO foreign ministers strengthened their ties to Georgia on Tuesday and called for Russia to observe a cease-fire and withdraw its troop immediately, vowing that until it does, the alliance won’t continue with business as usual in its relations with Moscow But they also failed to agree on any specific punitive measures about the Russia-Georgian crisis All they have done is nothing but a tepid response, which was

a promising to establish a NATO-Georgian Council, a big disappointed for Tibsilli There is now a question to the worthy of this alliance membership As it has expanded from 5 to 26 countries, including some former Soviet republics, the notion of collective defense is a more complicated than before

European countries will not get into a military confrontation with Russia, even in case one NATO

member is attacked, especially if that country is Ukraine or Georgian The concept of collective defense shall fall apart, which also mean same for NATO That is why European countries have blocked the US administration’s effort to bring Georgian and Ukraine into the alliance by a condition: no border issue which is impossible for both Until now, establishing the NATO-Georgian and delaying the NATO- Russia council are everything they can do for now To find a way out of this crisis, talking is the right thing to do, but if the other side doesn’t implement its promise, there will be strong reactions, according

to the French foreign minister.

21-8 (Russia Today)

II.1.3.Russia Backs independence of Georgian Enclaves

A day after the Russian Parliament’ call, the President, Mr.Medvedev announced the recognizing of 2 enclaves: S.Ossetia and Abkhazia He said that this was not an easy choice, but the only one This action deepened strains with the West over the conflict in the economically vital crossroads of the Caucasus and roiled a broader debate over how to respond to separatist movements around the world The Russia had abided by international law in recognizing the 2 enclaves, and the decision was in part retaliation for the West’s support earlier this year for the independence of Kosovo from Serbia, which Russia had opposed The US and its allies denounced the decision, saying that Georgian must not be broken, ad Russia was violating the cease-fire framework that it signed to halt the fighting.

Because of the fear that if you wade into one such conflict, it could be used against yourself in a future one, no other big power, or another country followed Moscow’s lead and voiced support for S.O and Abkhazia’s independence Even the Russia itself has its own problems about secessionist, like in

Chechnya The Russia officials try to explain the reason why Chechnya did not deserve the same right is that Chechnya had been turn into home of international terrorists.

Igor Luke, a professor of international relations at Boston University, said that the current situation of this crisis was the result of each superpower trying to emerge to advance its interest and to hurt its rivals 26-8 (New York Times)

II.1.4.NATO Ships in Black Sea Raise Alarms in Russia

By Andrew E Kramer

The Russia Navy Force has raised their alarm when the 4 NATO ships sailed into the Black Sea A Russia commander said that those vessels now outnumbered the ships in their fleet anchored off the western coast of Georgian He also added that this action violated a 1936 treaty, the Monteux Convention, which they maintain limits to 3 weeks the time non coastal countries can sail military vessels on the sea The Russia government accused those NATO ships bringing weapon and other military supplement to support Georgian army under the guise of humanitarian aid The White House dismissed all assertions and called them ridiculous They also called for Russia to reserves its decision, and marked that NATO is partner of Russia The Supreme HQ Allied powers Europe has stated that they could not control the move of every single NATO member Meanwhile, with many efforts to build support for its action in Georgian, Russia had little results Most of its allies remained silence or show no really action.

28-8 (New York Times)

II.1.5.SCO Snubs Russian Appeal for Support.

A joint declaration from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization offered some support for Russia’s

“active role in promoting peace” following a cease-fire, denounced the use of force and called for respect for every country’s territorial integrity Some other leaders like Iranian went further when accusing the Western of interfering in Central Asian and they formed a observers group to watch out the status of the 2 enclaves But no alliance member joined Russia in recognizing the independence claims of Georgian’s separatist region, Abkhazia and South Ossetia Each country has its own problems about rebel province,

like China’s Tibet or Xinjiang All of them seemed reluctant to damage reluctant to damage their relations with Europe and the U.S since they already had some investment form the Western in their country in several of ways Even countries that have been Russia’s most loyalty allies like Cuban or Venezuela didn’t follow the recognizing A little surprised for Russia because they haven’t been so alone since 1963- the Soviet invasion on Czechoslovakia Overall, the summit highlighted Russia’s isolation, and they has

so far found little unequivocal support, even among stalwart foes of the U.S.

29-8 (Associated Press)

II.1.6.Georgia and Russia Cut Diplomatic Ties

The Georgian government broke off diplomatic relations with Russia on Friday after a passed law of its Parliament and Russia responded by doing the same This move was expected with the conflict happened this month Never before Russia severed formal diplomatic ties with any of the post-Soviet republics since the collapsing of the USSR in 1991 The later diplomatic action will be held at another country as a intermediaries, like Switzerland In other development, Abkhazia asked Russia to represent its interest abroad, which would be include in a so-called friend-ship, cooperation and mutual assistance treaty A similar agreement has been signed with South-Ossetia.

30-8-08 (New York Times)

II.1.7.White House Unveils $1 Billion Georgia Aid Plan

In Baku-Azerbaijan, President of the US proposed 1 billion USD in humanitarian and economic

assistance on Wednesday to help rebuild Georgia after the war, but he didn’t mention anything about equipping its army This package of aid requires additional approval from the Congress, and will pay at the cost of the worst relations between US and Russia since the cold war According to the Secretary of State, Ms Rice, $570 millions of the aid will be made available this year, while the rest must depend on approval by a new administration and a new Congress, and this is not a military aid, she stated That money will be first used to feed and shelter 10.000 people displaced during the fight, and will help rebuild the economic later The European Union this week also contributed a fund of $750 million in financing The vice-president of the US has begun his visit to 3 Russia’s neighbors to gain influence and challenge Russia And he got a new natural gas pipeline to Europe, which mean a lot for E.U in the process of seeking an independent route for energy from Central Asia and the Caspian.

re-4-9 (Washington Post)

II.1.8.Russia Agrees to limited pullout from Georgia.

After a 4 hour meeting with France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy, Russia’s President, Mr Medvedev announced that Russia agreed to withdraw its troops by Mid-October from its position in Georgia outside the breakaway region of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and allowed 200 observers from EU to monitor the conflict But he refused to draw back his decision to recognize the 2 region as independent nations He said that it was irreversible and irrevocable Meanwhile, Mr Sarkozy tried to bring the 2 sides : EU and Russia together but this seemed too hard for him, because Europe has been bitterly divided into 2 parts :

some nations like France, German want to remain its economic interests with Russia, and the formerly Communist countries like Poland want a punishment However, Georgian has refused to sign the cease- fire treaty because some of the matter was already covered in the deal of Aug 12-according to the president of Georgian Russia had received a new success in diplomatic with the recognizing of

Nicaragua to the 2 breakaway region On Monday, the 2 country – Russia and Georgian has carried their dispute over the breakaway enclaves to the International Court of Justice in The Hague Georgian

requested for an injunction ordering Russia to stop “terrorizing” ethic Georgians and to allow refugees to return homes Russia challenged the court’s jurisdiction and asked it to dismiss the Georgian application

as expected.

9-9-08 (RIA Novosti)

II.1.9.We did everything right, and I’m proud of it – Medvedev.

In a frank talk with members of the Valdai Discussion club, President Medvedev has reavealed how Russia will deal with this conflict He said that this is a hard decision to use force, no one want war, but

he need to do what he need to do Mr Medvedev compared the incident of August 8th with 9/11 of America “George Bush would do the same” he said He blamed the US for this diplomatic mistake, for the encouragement they have put into Saakashvili’head : do whatever you want, the Russia won’t meddle That leader, according to Mr Medvedev is a drug abuser, unpredictable pathological, fussing like a pooch, and won’t be recognized as a partner by Russia About the energy field, he stressed that Asian ties bring stability to the Western countries; Russia has enough gas to provide what Europe needs To solve the ahead problems, both sides: Russia and the West must sit back together and discuss to find out the common interest and to understand each other more.

13-9-08 (Russia Today)

II.1.10Georgia violated UN charter – UN Assembly chief

At the Opening of the UN General Assembly, for the 1 st time, a UN Assembly chief has said some thing

in Russia’s favor: Georgia violated UN charter by invading South Ossetia Russia’s ambassador to the Un Vitaly Churkin accused Tbisili for trying to prevent humanitarian aid to its breakaway region Moreover,

he called for the US to issue visas to officials from South Ossetia and Abkhazia so they can attend a Security Council meeting this October.

17-9-08 (RIA Novosti and AP)

II.2.Discussion

In the series of things that happened after the incident of August 8 th , the most important is Russia

recognized 2 breakaway regions: South Ossetia and Abkhazia This is the most expected move of Russia within the conflict

II.2.1.Why is it the most important

This recognizing and the strike back of Russia on Georgian forces and prospects earlier, like somebody said that they marked the resurrection of a super power of the world And also, it is a deep, hard impact

on the international laws and the world’s order But there was a new Cold War threat ahead, and changes

in relationships between Russia and the rest of the world From now on, everything will not happen the way it was before That is why, this pieces of news is chosen the most important one among 10 other pieces.

II.2.2.The Influences

The current Russia-West bilateral relationship is at an extreme low And the often asked question about the return to a new Cold War misses the point A return to the Cold War is simply impossible The same historical, ideological, and political imperatives do not exist today However, the conflict brewing between Russia and the West could become far worse than the US-Soviet standoff of the past.

The world survived the Cold War because there was a set of rules both the United States and the Soviet Union accepted The most important rule was to avoid - at all costs - direct confrontation The Cuban missile crisis was a lesson learned by both the Russians and the Americans – both understand how direct confrontation could end With direct confrontation out of the question, promoting and backing of proxy conflicts was the plan of action And we saw this happen all over the world When Russia unilaterally withdrew from the Cold War conflict and ended communist rule (and ideology) that global conflict came

to an end – peacefully.

The Soviet collapse gave Russia a new lease on life Russia eagerly embraced market capitalism, started its own democracy project, and desired to be integrated into international institutions And the West encouraged this However, there was a catch: Russia would enter Western institutions on terms that suited the West Like a schoolboy, Russia would be judged every step of the way.

While Russia was weak, Moscow had little choice Russia made countless concessions to the West (primarily to Washington) Moscow’s Western partners did not make a single concession The

concessions Russia made covered issues related to security, trade, investment, and involvement on the world stage That all changed with the rise of Vladimir Putin (And for all the sceptics – no, it is not only because of high energy prices!).

What Putin recognised and Dmitry Medvedev is continuing to recognise is the fact that the US will not accept any limits on its global reach Washington is not interested in having any equal partners And it uses terms like “democracy promotion” when in fact democracy is the least of Washington’s real

concerns We have repeatedly seen how the US will turn a blind eye on a country’s democracy (like Georgia’s) when it suits America’s geopolitical and economic aims This is not new But what is new is far more frightening than what we saw during the Cold War.

Georgia’s aggression against South Ossetia is disturbingly new and very dangerous No matter how you see it, this aggression was somehow sponsored by Washington - an American string-puppet all but attacked Russia This never happened during the Cold War This has changed everything Any level of trust the between Moscow and Washington has been destroyed From now on, Russia will not only be overtly and openly suspicious of the US and its controlled institutions (like NATO), but it will - without hesitation - go eye-to-eye with Washington when the time and place is right.

The West’s toolbox to punish Russia for having an independent foreign policy (and home grown

democracy) is very limited And it is going to find this out more and more as time passes The West’s support of and the commentaries’ free pass for Saakashvili’s brutal regime has long term consequences For years I have said that Russia can help the West when it wants to but can also be very unhelpful when

it chooses to It never should have come to this Now we are left with the new reality of deep-seated suspicions separating natural allies It is Washington’s Soviet-like neuron ideological genetic code that is getting in the way.

This is how all of this seen from Moscow: The US supported a direct attack against Russia That attack failed Nonetheless, the aggressor is rewarded and the victims blamed This will be remembered.

We are not returning to anything resembling the Cold War What we are seeing unfold is a very different and challenging conflict The US has demonstrated yet again that it refuses to acknowledge Russia’s own self-defined interests (in every sense) and it will even use military force to undermine any country that defies Washington’s unilateralism.

Yes, we are seeing a new Russia-West conflict And the script is being written by the West If Russia again is to be the enemy, then be wary Today’s Russia is not an enemy to be trifled with As I see it, there are no winners in this scenario Unlike the Cold War, there are no rules agreed to It is this

uncertainty that should worry us.

I find all of this interesting International law probably helped us avoid a major Cold War confrontation What can’t it be of use today when the past Cold War rivalries find former foes having so many common international interests? I don’t have the answer(s) However, it is clear to me that Russia has come to the conclusion that if international law is not interpreted universally its new default position is the respect of human rights.

Russia recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia because of its understanding of international law (and still does not recognize Kosovo for the same reasons) However, there is an important caveat Russia has brought human rights – the right to not be killed in an aggressive war – back on the table The Saakashvili regime is not repentant Just the opposite, its aggression has been rewarded by its Western backers This called for action – particularly as Russia is always impacted by violence on its borders.

Russia has done the right thing Sadly international law doesn’t stop wars (and sometimes it is ignored to start them) Until international law again has any salient meaning, falling back on what is undeniably important should be respected And that is the protection of human rights.

Since the end of Cold War the West has used and abused international law to advance its geopolitical advantage (and usually against Russia’s legitimate security interests) The human rights factor is not part

of the West’s international legal equation But alas, at least the people of South Ossetia and Abkhazia can

now sleep at night knowing Tbilisi is no longer a threat to them.

If this is Russia’s understanding of international law, then I agree with it.

III Conclusion

As one of the hottest topic in the world wide media, the information about the Russia-Georgian conflict is huge and various One day, there were at least 4 to 5 reports of differences newspapers and channels Each of them had their own views over this crisis The Western media often focus on Russia invasion and stand at the side of Georgian, while the Russian media usually criticize Saakashvili, and show sympathize with the sufferings of South Ossetia people To be objective, you must find information as various as possible to get the right overview To find 10 suitable pieces of news took us quite a lot of time.

The assignment itself contains a lot of mistake, both in grammar and logic In the discussion, the lack of vocabulary caused us tons of troubles expressing what we want to say However, just in 10 pieces of news, and the limit times from August 20 th prevent us from showing a full view of the conflict In fact, only a very small part of this crisis has been revealed.

5 members of us, each person have differences skill in English, some are good at writing, some are good

at searching, and everybody has his/her own opinion We can’t satisfy everyone, so a discussion to choose what topic, which idea, which point of view to represent the group is needed After all, we choose

Russia’s side and try to focus on this However, we have not yet learned the way to cooperate, and to discuss in English Every single idea is first showed in Vietnamese and will be translated to English later

On the contrary with the last assignment, we show that we made some progressive But the old problems are still remaining and it seemed that we need a long time to fix them And we are sure that our work in the future will only get better and better.

IV.References:

1.Russia Never Wanted a War

By MIKHAIL GORBACHEV

Published: August 20, 2008

THE acute phase of the crisis provoked by the Georgian forces’ assault on Tskhinvali, the capital

of South Ossetia, is now behind us But how can one erase from memory the horrifying scenes ofthe nighttime rocket attack on a peaceful town, the razing of entire city blocks, the deaths of people taking cover in basements, the destruction of ancient monuments and ancestral graves?

Russia did not want this crisis The Russian leadership is in a strong enough position

domestically; it did not need a little victorious war Russia was dragged into the fray by the recklessness of the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili He would not have dared to attack without outside support Once he did, Russia could not afford inaction

The decision by the Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, to now cease hostilities was the right move by a responsible leader The Russian president acted calmly, confidently and firmly Anyone who expected confusion in Moscow was disappointed

The planners of this campaign clearly wanted to make sure that, whatever the outcome, Russia would be blamed for worsening the situation The West then mounted a propaganda attack against Russia, with the American news media leading the way

The news coverage has been far from fair and balanced, especially during the first days of the crisis Tskhinvali was in smoking ruins and thousands of people were fleeing — before any Russian troops arrived Yet Russia was already being accused of aggression; news reports were often an embarrassing recitation of the Georgian leader’s deceptive statements

It is still not quite clear whether the West was aware of Mr Saakashvili’s plans to invade South Ossetia, and this is a serious matter What is clear is that Western assistance in training Georgian troops and shipping large supplies of arms had been pushing the region toward war rather than peace

If this military misadventure was a surprise for the Georgian leader’s foreign patrons, so much the worse It looks like a classic wag-the-dog story

Mr Saakashvili had been lavished with praise for being a staunch American ally and a real democrat — and for helping out in Iraq Now America’s friend has wrought disorder, and all of

us — the Europeans and, most important, the region’s innocent civilians — must pick up the pieces

Those who rush to judgment on what’s happening in the Caucasus, or those who seek influence there, should first have at least some idea of this region’s complexities The Ossetians live both

in Georgia and in Russia The region is a patchwork of ethnic groups living in close proximity Therefore, all talk of “this is our land,” “we are liberating our land,” is meaningless We must think about the people who live on the land

The problems of the Caucasus region cannot be solved by force That has been tried more than once in the past two decades, and it has always boomeranged

What is needed is a legally binding agreement not to use force Mr Saakashvili has repeatedly refused to sign such an agreement, for reasons that have now become abundantly clear

The West would be wise to help achieve such an agreement now If, instead, it chooses to blame Russia and re-arm Georgia, as American officials are suggesting, a new crisis will be inevitable

In that case, expect the worst

In recent days, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President Bush have been promising to isolate Russia Some American politicians have threatened to expel it from the Group of 8

industrialized nations, to abolish the NATO-Russia Council and to keep Russia out of the World Trade Organization

These are empty threats For some time now, Russians have been wondering: If our opinion counts for nothing in those institutions, do we really need them? Just to sit at the nicely set dinner table and listen to lectures?

Indeed, Russia has long been told to simply accept the facts Here’s the independence of Kosovo for you Here’s the abrogation of the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, and the American decision to place missile defenses in neighboring countries Here’s the unending expansion of NATO All ofthese moves have been set against the backdrop of sweet talk about partnership Why would anyone put up with such a charade?

There is much talk now in the United States about rethinking relations with Russia One thing that should definitely be rethought: the habit of talking to Russia in a condescending way, without regard for its positions and interests

Our two countries could develop a serious agenda for genuine, rather than token, cooperation Many Americans, as well as Russians, understand the need for this But is the same true of the political leaders?

A bipartisan commission led by Senator Chuck Hagel and former Senator Gary Hart has recentlybeen established at Harvard to report on American-Russian relations to Congress and the next president It includes serious people, and, judging by the commission’s early statements, its members understand the importance of Russia and the importance of constructive bilateral relations

But the members of this commission should be careful Their mandate is to present “policy recommendations for a new administration to advance America’s national interests in relations with Russia.” If that alone is the goal, then I doubt that much good will come out of it If,

however, the commission is ready to also consider the interests of the other side and of common security, it may actually help rebuild trust between Russia and the United States and allow them

to start doing useful work together

Mikhail Gorbachev is the former president of the Soviet Union This article was translated by Pavel Palazhchenko from the Russian.

From NewYorkTimes

2.Once Its Rationale, Collective Defense Poses New

Challenges to a Larger NATO

Yves Logghe/Associated Press

Bernard Kouchner, France’s foreign minister, center, at a NATO meeting on Tuesday attended

by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, left, and their Greek counterpart, Dora Bakoyannis

By HELENE COOPER

Published: August 20, 2008

BRUSSELS — NATO foreign ministers strengthened their ties to Georgia on Tuesday and called for Russia to observe a cease-fire and withdraw its troops immediately, vowing that until itdoes the alliance “won’t continue with business as usual” in its relations with Moscow

But the NATO ministers, at a rare emergency meeting, failed to agree on any specific punitive measures, despite pressure from the United States that NATO at least threaten Russia with unspecified “consequences,” and pleas from the Czech Republic, Poland and NATO’s Baltic members that it take a tough stand

Instead, NATO issued a tepid response, promising to establish a NATO-Georgia Council to strengthen ties — a far cry from Georgia’s goal of full NATO membership And it ignored pleas from nervous Eastern European members for a strong, “don’t even think about it” warning against military intervention there

All of which raised a critical question: What, exactly, is membership in the nearly 60-year-old alliance worth today?

“It is worth what it has been worth since 1949,” the NATO secretary general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, snapped when a reporter posed the question during a news conference “That’s my short answer.” He called it “pathetic” that Russian officials had threatened to aim ballistic missiles at a NATO member, Poland, in response to the Bush administration’s plan to locate an antimissile base there

The trouble is, back in 1949, the alliance was formed with a central tenet of collective defense The famous Article 5 of the NATO Charter stipulates that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all, a principle that assured Western Europe during the cold war that America would come to its defense if Moscow encroached

But the notion of collective defense is a more complicated matter now that NATO has expanded

to include 26 countries, foreign policy experts said, including former Soviet republics like Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, not to mention the Czech Republic and Poland Although some said that NATO might at least try to rustle up a defense for those countries if they were attacked, the concept of collective defense falls apart completely in the case of Georgia and Ukraine — both smack in Russia’s backyard and sphere of influence — even if they were NATO members

“If Georgia was in NATO now, would we be defending them? I don’t know,” said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations “The alliance needs to make sure that when it takes on pledges of collective defense, it is prepared to stand by them.”

European officials said they were not about to get into a military confrontation with Russia over Georgia That is why European countries have blocked the Bush administration’s efforts to bringGeorgia and Ukraine into the alliance, said a senior European diplomat involved in the NATO emergency meeting on Tuesday

While the NATO statement did promise to consider the idea of beginning Georgia’s accession to NATO in December, the diplomat said that in reality, the prospects were virtually nil “It’s impossible,” he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity under normal diplomatic

procedure

The alliance’s charter, he pointed out, stipulates that potential NATO members have to resolve outstanding border issues before joining That alone would block Georgia’s entry In addition, hesaid, European countries are not interested in granting Georgia membership just to spite Russia.Similarly, it is doubtful that the United States, its military stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, would go to war with Russia to defend Georgia even if it were a member of NATO, said George Friedman, chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical risk analysis company

“The assumption that everybody made was that a mere guarantee by NATO would preclude any threat because the Russians would never dare displease NATO or the United States,” he said Except now, he said, Russia has called the West’s bluff

Tuesday’s emergency session brought the fractures in NATO into sharp relief Even before the meeting started, the French, Germans and even the British were saying that they had no intention

of seeking to isolate Russia “We asked others not to stop relations between NATO and Russia,”

Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, said in an interview “We have to talk to them, but if they don’t implement their promises, we have to react and stand up strongly.”

Still, he said: “We need firmness, not threats We must not threaten them, because it will not work Because everyone knows we are not going to war.”

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice gave a long discourse about not letting Russia off the hook

“If we do, it will come back to haunt us,” Ms Rice said, according to the official

But that was as far as she went, he said “Rhetorically, it was very good,” he said, “but it became clear that she does not want to start a cold war either.” He added that the Americans knew that with the exception of Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltics, Europe was resisting even a slight increase in the pressure on Russia

That was in sharp contrast to the nations of the “new” Europe The Czech Republic’s foreign minister, Karel Schwarzenberg, spoke for them when he responded that Europe was already in a new cold war, and that NATO had to act, according to diplomats in the room

But in the end, all NATO could muster was the establishment of the NATO-Georgia Council (which American officials billed as a slap in the face of Russia because it contained the words

“NATO” and “Georgia” simultaneously) It also warned that until Russian troops pull out of Georgia, it would not convene another meeting of the NATO-Russia Council, which was already

a pretty vague joint venture

“We’re not abandoning the NATO-Russia Council, but as long as Russian forces are occupying avast part of Georgia, I cannot see the NATO-Russia Council reconvening,” Mr de Hoop

Scheffer said, adding quickly, “But we certainly don’t mean to close all doors with Russia.”One Russian official scoffed at the alliance’s response on Tuesday Said Dmitry Rogozin,

Russia’s representative to NATO: “The mountain has given birth to a mouse.”

Steven Erlanger and Tom Rachman contributed reporting from Paris, and Graham Bowley from New York

From Russia Today

3.Russia Backs Independence of Georgian Enclaves

August 27, 2008

MOSCOW — Russia on Tuesday recognized the independence of two enclaves that have long sought to secede from neighboring Georgia The action deepened strains with the West over the conflict in the economically vital crossroads of the Caucasus and roiled a broader debate over how to respond to separatist movements around the world

The Russian decision was intended to consolidate its political and military gains in the two and a half weeks since it invaded Georgia after hostilities flared over the breakaway territory of South Ossetia, an ally of Moscow

The Russian president, Dmitri A Medvedev, declared in a nationally televised address that SouthOssetia and the other pro-Russian enclave, Abkhazia, would never again have to endure what he described as oppressive Georgian rule

“This is not an easy choice, but it is the only way to save the lives of people,” Mr Medvedev said

With Russia’s image and financial markets suffering in recent days, Mr Medvedev took the unusual step of giving a series of interviews to foreign media on Tuesday to explain the move

He said Russia had abided by international law in recognizing the two enclaves, but he left no doubt that the decision was in part retaliation for the West’s support earlier this year for the independence of Kosovo from Serbia, which Russia had opposed

The United States and its allies denounced the decision, saying that Georgia must not be broken apart and contending that Russia was violating the cease-fire framework that it signed to halt the fighting The Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, accused Russia of trying to annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia

“This is a challenge for the entire world,” Mr Saakashvili said “Not just Georgia.”

In Washington, President Bush said, “Russia’s action only exacerbates tensions and complicates diplomatic negotiations.”

While the dispute centers on two slices of land, it has been playing out against a much broader backdrop of historic antagonism among the major powers over separatist movements

World leaders have for years struggled to determine which ones to recognize, often making decisions and then trying to limit the repercussions by warning that each situation is unique.The questions now are: whether that hesitance to bestow recognition could be eroding, as

witnessed by Kosovo and Russia’s action in Georgia; and whether other independence

movements will use the recognition of the two enclaves to further their own ambitions by citing similar grievances Not far from Georgia, for example, is an Armenian enclave that wants to secede from Azerbaijan, and Kurdish separatists are seeking their own homeland in regions of Turkey and Iraq

In the past, most countries feared that if they waded into one such conflict, it could be used against them in a future one On Tuesday, no other big power followed Moscow’s lead and voiced support for South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence

Many in Abkhazia have expressed the desire to be separate both from Georgia and Russia — andsome experts say it might be viable as an independent nation, albeit a very small one, because of its larger size and busy port

South Ossetia, in contrast, has only 70,000 people and borders on the Russian region of North Ossetia Suspicions have long arisen that after seceding from Georgia, South Ossetia would be absorbed by Russia and joined with North Ossetia — and most Ossetians say they support that The Kremlin said Tuesday that it had no plans to take over South Ossetia It has already given Russian passports to many residents of both places, thereby widening its influence

Mr Medvedev announced the enclaves’ independence with unexpected swiftness, only a day after the Russian Parliament unanimously called upon him to do so Diplomats and analysts had surmised that the Kremlin might draw the process out as part of negotiations with the West.But tensions between the sides have been escalating, and not only over the status of the regions

On Tuesday, Russian military and diplomatic officials continued to complain about NATO

efforts to assist Georgia, suggesting that the alliance might be trying to send military equipment, rather than humanitarian aid The Russians also expressed discomfort about the presence of NATO ships in the Black Sea off the coast of Georgia

Russia has for months been seething over the West’s decision this year to recognize Kosovo’s independence from Serbia, a traditional Russian ally The Russians were especially angered when Western diplomats emphasized that Kosovo was not any sort of precedent and had no bearing on the standing of the breakaway enclaves in Georgia

As if to drive home the idea that recognition of the enclaves was in some sense payback, Mr Medvedev used an interview on Tuesday with Russia Today, the Kremlin-financed English-language channel, to turn the West’s rationale on Kosovo against it

“There was a special situation in Kosovo, there is a special situation in South Ossetia and

Abkhazia,” he said “Speaking about our situation, it is obvious that our decision is aimed at preventing the genocide, the elimination of a people, and helping them get on their feet.”

Still, Russia, a sprawling nation with many nationalities, has faced its own secessionist pressures,notably in the Muslim region of Chechnya, where Moscow has fought two wars to crush an independence movement Even as they were hailing the independence of the two enclaves, Russian officials were trying to explain why Chechnya did not deserve the same right

They contended that when Chechnya had had autonomy in the late 1990s, it became a source of tremendous instability, and Russia had no choice but to reassert complete control

“You know what they did to their own place,” the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V Lavrov, said Tuesday “They turned it into a place where international terrorists were feeling at home.”Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, this part of the world has been a locus of the problem of addressing separatist aspirations

For a time, a consensus developed in the West, but with two aims that sometimes appeared to be

in conflict On one hand, the allies, led by the United States, were quick to recognize the

independence of former Soviet republics, including Georgia itself, the better to wrest these countries away from Russia’s orbit and into the arms of the West.

“Depending on where you sat, you could easily call those places breakaway republics,” said Derek Chollet, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, addingthat many hard-liners in Russia did see those countries as breakaway regions

On the other hand, a post-cold-war understanding, hardened by the experience in Bosnia,

developed that the West should be very careful about recognizing breakaway regions, so as not

to set a precedent, or embolden secessionist areas, Mr Chollet said

That consensus held until February, when Kosovo declared independence, and the West said Serbia lost its right to Kosovo because of actions over the years by the Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic, who died in 2006

Igor Lukes, a professor of international relations at Boston University, said international law contained clear standards for evaluating whether an independence movement should be

recognized, in part based upon whether such a territory has defined borders, a

well-established central authority and a populace that strongly desires secession

The problem is that these judgments typically become hostage to conflicts between large nations,

as in the case of Kosovo, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Mr Lukes said

“These situations are not really murky,” he said “What makes the situations murky is each superpower tries to exploit ad hoc situations as they emerge to advance its interests and to hurt its rivals It’s really the way the superpowers manipulate the reality It’s not the reality that is complicated.”

On the border area around Russia and South Ossetia on Tuesday, there was mostly joy Hundreds

of South Ossetians streamed south to their homes, buoyed by Russia’s decision

At a rest home in Alagir, an hour’s drive from the border, aid workers sat alone, eating sardines

It was one of the first moments since the crisis began early this month when they looked out at

an empty dormitory

Three hundred refugees had left in the morning, and 400 more were expected to pass through on Wednesday on their way to the narrow Roki Tunnel, which cuts through the nearly vertical ridge

of the Caucasus to South Ossetia

“This was the only hope of people who live on the other side of the pass to return to a normal way of life,” said Avan Galachiyev, an agent of the Federal Migration Service who had been helping the refugees

Artur Dzhoiyev, whose family fled their village, Hampalgon, 18 years ago, was thinking idly about returning to his “historic motherland,” maybe building a house

Now, he reasoned, things would be different No Georgian checkpoints, no need to lurch along rocky bypass roads, no rooting for documents under the hostile gaze of soldiers

The Georgians, Mr Galachiyev said, have lost control of the road

“And they won’t get it back,” he said

Reporting was contributed by Ellen Barry in Vladikavkaz, Russia; Helene Cooper in

Washington; Nicholas Kulish in Tallinn, Estonia; and Steven Erlanger in Paris.

From New York Times

4.NATO Ships in Black Sea Raise Alarms in Russia

By ANDREW E KRAMER

MOSCOW — Russian commanders said Wednesday that they were growing alarmed at the number of NATO warships sailing into the Black Sea, saying that NATO vessels now outnumbered the ships in their fleet anchored off the western coast of Georgia

As attention turned to the balance of naval power in the sea, the leader of the separatist region of

Abkhazia said he would invite Russia to establish a naval base at Sukhumi, a deep-water port in the territory

But in a move certain to anger Russia, Ukraine’s president, Viktor A Yushchenko, said he would open negotiations with Moscow on raising the rent on the Russian naval base at

Sevastopol, which is in Crimea, a predominantly Russian province of Ukraine

The United States was pursuing a delicate policy of delivering humanitarian aid on military transport planes and ships, apparently to illustrate to the Russians that they do not fully control Georgia’s airspace or coastline

The policy has left American and Russian naval vessels maneuvering in close proximity off the western coast of Georgia, with the Americans concentrated near the southern port of Batumi and the Russians around the central port of Poti It has also left the Kremlin deeply suspicious of American motives

“What the Americans call humanitarian cargoes — of course, they are bringing in weapons,” President Dmitri A Medvedev of Russia told the BBC in an interview on Tuesday, adding,

“We’re not trying to prevent it.”

The White House dismissed all assertions that the Pentagon was shipping weapons under the

“guise” of humanitarian aid, as the state-controlled news media put it, calling them “ridiculous.”Apparently testing Russian assurances that their forces have opened the port of Poti for

humanitarian aid, the United States Embassy in Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital, said a Coast Guard cutter, the Dallas, would try to dock there on Wednesday, well within a zone controlled by the Russian military during the war

The Dallas, however, docked instead at Batumi, to the south It was carrying 34 tons of

humanitarian aid Georgian military officials said the other port might have been mined, The Associated Press reported

During the conflict with Georgia, Russian soldiers occupied the port of Ponti and sank Georgian ships in the harbor Russian officials have said that their forces are now out of the city, but that they are still occupying positions at checkpoints just to the north Russian ships are also

patrolling off the coast

NATO on Wednesday called on Russia to reverse its decision to recognize two rebel Georgian regions and urged it to respect Georgia’s territorial integrity

President Nicolas Sarkozy of France said in a speech to the French diplomatic corps that no one wanted another cold war and called on Russia to pull back its forces to positions they held beforethe current conflict with Georgia

“NATO is not an adversary but a partner of Russia,” he added “As for the European Union, it seeks to build with this country a close and positive relation It is for Russia today to make a fundamental choice.”

Russia continued to dismiss Western criticism, with Mr Medvedev defending Russia’s actions asnecessary to protect against a “genocide” by the Georgian armed forces in South Ossetia In