Assessing the impact of climate change on drought in tien giang province

MANIFESTATION AND SCENARIO OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISING SEA LEVEL IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE .... The objective of thesis To assess the impact of climate change on drought in Tien Giang pro

- -

TRAN VAN THUONG

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ON DROUGHT IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE

THESIS OF GEOGRAPHY MASTER

HANOI, 2017

- -

TRAN VAN THUONG

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ON DROUGHT IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE

Specialisation: Physical Geography

Code: 60.44.02.17

THESIS OF GEOGRAPHY MASTER

Supervisor: Associate Prof Dao Ngoc Hung

DECLARATION

I certify that this thesis is my knowledge during of studying period The used data and documents in the study is fully righteous and it is completely different from all published results in the previous time

I can be legally responsible for my pledge

Hanoi, June, 2017

AUTHOR

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my special thanks to Associate Professor Đào Ngọc Hùng, who always encourages, help, advises, and give suggestions Without him, this achievement would not have occurred I would also like to thank Professor Nguyễn Trọng Hiệu for guidance, and kind editing of this thesis I also appreciate the knowledge gained through Dr Đỗ Văn Thanh during GIS and ENVI topics

I am grateful to the lecturers, the staffs of Geography Faculty, Post-Graduation Department in the both Hanoi National University of Education and Ho Chi Minh City University of Education for assistance provided to me

I am also in the debt of AMA Education Foundation Scholarship, NAGAO Scholarship, Mr Peter Mach, Ms Phương Diễm Hương, Associate Professor Trần Đức Tuấn, Ms Ngô Thị Hải Yến, and the family of Associate Professor Nguyễn Minh Tuệ who have given special help in finance as well as spirit It has greatly helped me for collecting database and field-research around my thesis

This work has many external contributor The generosity of Mr Võ Văn Thông and uncles, aunts at Tien Giang, Long An and National Centre of Meteorology and Hydrology for providing data which related to my thesis

My acknowledgement is also paid to my family and friends who always give

me motivation My parents and foster parents are my beloved persons who I thank greatly

Last but not least, my thesis will be unsuccessful unless the members of Assessment Council support and allow Many thanks for ideas and recommendations from member of the Council

Due to the inadequacy of time and data, here has not been really perfect thesis The sympathy and ideas from readers will encourage to enhance the quality of projects in the future

AUTHOR

LIST OF FIGURES

Fig 1.1 Administration of Tien Giang province 24 Fig 1.2 Rivers and canals network of Tien Giang province 28 Fig 2.1 The change in average temperature decade in Tien Giang province during period 1978 – 2015 33 Fig 2.2 The fluctuation of annual average temperature in Tien Giang from 1978 to

2015 33 Fig 2.3 The variation in seasonal average temperature in study area from 1978 34 Fig 2.4 The change in mean rainfall decade in Tien Giang province during period

1978 – 2015 35 Fig 2.5 The fluctuation of annual rainfall in Tien Giang from 1978 to 2015 35 Fig 2.6 The variation in mean seasonal rainfall in study area from 1978 to 2015 36 Fig 2.7 Scale and landing time of typhoon during period of 1978 – 2015 in coastal area from Binh Thuan to Kien Giang province 39 Fig 2.8 Changes in average sea level (a), maximum sea level (b) and minimum sea level (c) at Vung Tau oceanographical station 40 Fig 2.9 The fluctuation of average water level (a), maximum water level (b) and minimum water level (c) in Vam Kenh hydrological station 41 Fig 2.10 Changes in yearly temperature in Tien Giang province 43 Fig 2.11 Changes in temperature in winter (a), spring (b), summer (c), and autumn (d) 44 Fig 2.12 The rate of increasing annual mean temperature in Tien Giang province under RCP 8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 45 Fig 2.13 Changes in annual rainfall (%) relative to period of 1986-2005 46 Fig 2.14 Changes in rainfall in winter (a), spring (b), summer (c), and autumn (d) 47 Fig 2.15 The rate of increasing annual rainfall in Tien Giang province under RCP 4.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 48 Fig 2.16 The rate of increasing annual rainfall in Tien Giang province under RCP 8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 49

Fig 2.17 The rate of inundation under sea level rise scenario100m 50

Fig 3.1 The frequency of monthly drought in Tien Giang province 50

Fig 3.2 The probability of drought classifications in study area 53

Fig 3.3 The probability of drought in dry (a) and rainy (b) season during period of 1978 – 2015 54

Fig 3.4 The rate of drought classification in study area 54

Fig 3.5 Normal Probability Plot of Model (response is RDI) 56

Fig 3.6 Versus Fits (response is RDI) 56

Fig 3.7 The change in yearly drought period of 2016 – 2035, relative to period of 1986 – 2005 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 57

Fig 3.8 The frequence of annual drought in Tien Giang province under RCP 4.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 58

Fig 3.9 The frequence of annual drought in Tien Giang province under RCP 8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 59

Fig 3.10 The frequency of monthly drought period of 2016 – 2035 in Tien Giang province under RCP 4.5 (a) and RCP 8.5 60

Fig 3.11 The value of RDI in dry season under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios 61

Fig 3.12 The value of RDI in rainy season under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios 62 Fig 3.13 The frequence of drought in dry season in Tien Giang province under RCP 4.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 63

Fig 3.14 The frequence of drought in dry season in Tien Giang province under RCP 8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 64

Fig 3.15 Over flowered at drain 3, in Go Cong Tay district in dry season 2012 65

Fig 3.16 Dredging river and canals 66

Fig 3.17 Rain water storage tank 67

Fig 3.19 Dragon fruit 68

Fig 3.20 The deserted fields during the salty season 70

Fig 3.21 Model of flora – rice – fish nexus in freedom (a) and dependent (b) 71

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 RDI classification 23

Table 2.1 The value and standard error of rainfall at three stations in study area for decade from 1978 to 2015 37

Table 2.2 The number of typhoons and tropical depressions which effected on sea region from Binh Thuan to Ca Mau during period of 1978 – 2015 37

Table 2.3 The data of typhoon and tropical depression which landed in coastal area from Binh Thuan to Ca Mau province during period of 1978 – 2015 38

Table 2.4 Characteristic of greenhouse gas concentrations scenario 42

Table 2.5 Sea level rise (cm) relative to period of 1986 – 2005 for scenarios 50

Table 2.6 Inundation in Tien Giang province 51

Table 3.1 The rate of monthly drought classification under scenarios (%) 60

Table 3.2 The consequence among constituents of nexus in study area 69

LIST OF ABBREVIATION

COP Conference of Parties

ESD Education for Sustainable Development

GIS Geographic Information System

ICSU International Council for Science

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change

MNRE Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment

RCP Representative Concentration Pathways

RDI Reconnaissance Drought Index

UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and

Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WCED World Commission on Environment and Development WMO World Meteorological Organization

WRCP World Climate Research Programme

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION i

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii

LIST OF FIGURES iii

LIST OF TABLES v

LIST OF ABBREVIATION vi

TABLE OF CONTENTS vii

INTRODUCTION 1

1 The motivation for the topic 1

2 Objective and mission 2

2.1 The objective of thesis 2

2.2 The task of thesis 2

3 Data and limitation 2

3.1 Data 2

3.2 The constraint of thesis 2

4 Perspective and method 3

4.1 Point of view 3

4.2 Methodology 4

5 Value of thesis 8

6 Structure of thesis 8

CONTENTS 9

CHAPTER 1 LITERATURE REVIEW 9

1.1 The history of research on climate change and drought 9

1.1.1 In the world 9

1.1.2 In Vietnam 13

1.1.3 In study area 15

1.2 Theoretical basis of study 17

1.2.1 Weather and climate 17

1.2.2 Climate change and sea level rise 18

1.2.3 Drought 21

1.3 Overview study area 23

1.3.1 Geographic location 23

1.3.2 Natural conditions 25

1.3.3 The socio – economic in study area 30

CHAPTER SUMMARY 32

CHAPTER 2 MANIFESTATION AND SCENARIO OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISING SEA LEVEL IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE 33

2.1 Manifestations of climate change and sea level rise in Tien Giang province 33

2.1.1 Temperature 33

2.1.2 Precipitation 34

2.1.3 Super storm 37

2.1.4 Sea and tide level rise 40

2.2 Scenario of climate change and rising sea level in study area 42

2.2.1 Temperature 43

2.2.2 Precipitation 46

2.2.3 Sea level rise 50

CHAPTER SUMMARY 51

CHAPTER 3 THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHT IN TIEN

GIANG PROVINCE 52

3.1 Determining probability of drought and drought severity in study area 52

3.1.1 Monthly drought during of research period 52

3.1.2 Seasonal drought 53

3.2 The impact of climate change on drought in Tien Giang province 55

3.2.1 The correlation between annual RDI and several components of climate 55

3.2.2 Scenario of drought for Tien Giang province 57

3.3 Climate change adaptation solutions 65

3.3.1 Construction solutions 65

3.3.2 Non-construction solutions 67

3.3.3 Educational solutions 72

CHAPTER SUMMARY 73

CONLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION 74

1 Conclusions 74

2 Recommendations 75

REFERENCES 77

PUBLICATION OF ARTICLES 86

INTRODUCTION

1 The motivation for the topic

Climate change has become a global problem of universal interest because of its influence sphere and effect level on humanity In recent years, they have become are more noticeable and serious under the form of drought, water shortage, loss of biodiversity and so on The climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam in

2016 (MNRE, 2016) [4] predicted that the sea level will likely to rise over 75 centimetres in the end of the 21st century by comparison with the period of 1986 – 2005; hence, they will direct influence on deltas, especially the Lower Mekong River Delta

Tien Giang province is one of thirteen provinces in Lower Mekong River Delta, which is covered about 5% areas of the Mekong River basin, and in coastal areas in Vietnam so there will be several advantages of the geographical location, the wealthy

of water resource from river upstream and the correction of river runoff by Tonlé Sap Lake However, there will be also much more difficult from obvious water shortage, drought and saltwater intrusion, especially the fresh water in dry season and flood in rainy season by the consequences of using water from the upper river basin, climate change and sea level rise [79],[80] The dry season in 2016, Tien Giang province has been impacted by the historical biggest drought; thus, it has caused fresh water shortage and the serious effect on agriculture

Drought is a complex and natural phenomenon mainly caused by low rainfall in

a constant period which is characterized by several properties such as frequency, intensity and duration (Alley, 1984) [42] By the impression of climate change and other reasons on drought, the fresh water of province will not be only shortage, but

be polluted in dry season for years ahead Fresh water plays vitally importance for production and social security of Vietnam in general and the agricultural products of

Tien Giang province in particular Therefore, it is necessary to assess the impact of

climate change on drought in Tien Giang province Hence, I have chosen this topic

to research on my master’s course

2 Objective and mission

2.1 The objective of thesis

To assess the impact of climate change on drought in Tien Giang province and suggest solutions adaptation in times of climate change and sea level rise

2.2 The task of thesis

By the published objective above, the project focus on solving several mission below:

- Literature review about global warming, climate change and rising sea level scenario, drought and Tien Giang province

- Analysing about the changing climate in study area

- Studying the correlation between several weather condition and drought

- Assessing the effects and putting great many solutions for sensibly using water resource within global warming context

3 Data and limitation

3.1 Data

The statistics for research used to analyse manifestations of climate change and sea level rise in Tien Giang province, includes: temperature, precipitation, humidity, tide and sea level They are provided by National and Tien Giang Centre of Meteorology and Hydrology and Tien Giang Statistical Yearbook

3.2 The constraint of thesis

- The thesis only projects on Tien Giang province by space

- In contents the author only concentrate on the manifestation of changing temperature, rainfall, humidity, tide and sea level, fluctuating typhoon and the impacts on drought from 1978 to 2015 Then, put forward several solutions for adapting in climate change and sea level rise context

4 Perspective and method

4.1 Point of view

4.1.1 Synthetic perspective

This is a typical point of view of modern Geography with the crucial role in guiding sense method and approaching to research objects Following this viewpoint, each territory is a unified and fully-constituted entity, also there are several components having the intimate relationship together As a result, this study examined the climate change in Tien Giang province in overall relationship with the general change of global climate, also with aspects: water resources, bio-systems, and another environmental resources

4.1.2 System perspective

Geography is an integrated science, it is open systems, and this gives rise to the problem of where and how to apply closure There is a close relationship among natural and socio-economic components The major advantage of the systems perspective is that it helps structure complex relationships in reality and thus makes them open for drought management under climate change context

4.1.3 Territorial perspective

A research region always sticks to a concrete space In each regions are including not only the internal difference but also the intimate relationship with other areas about natural conditions and socio-economic characteristics Hence, this thesis analysed both climate change in Tien Giang province and specified that the changing climate in study area is a part of Mekong River Delta and impacted by this phenomenon in the global scale

4.1.3 Historical point of view

In general, history records change in the world over time; it examines the past

to inform actions of today and the future In this thesis, based on this standpoint, the author studied the fluctuation of climatic factors matches the drought during periods

As a result, the author proposed decisions of rulers and government and the strategies and institution of ordinary people coping with life

4.1.4 Sustainable development point of view

Presently, this standpoint is becoming more popular and applied largely in all

of national economic activities, especially in exploiting and using the natural resources The concept about sustainable development extracted from World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) in 1987 [75] is

“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

To illustrate, when exploiting any territories for sake of profit, the sustainable development principles have to dominate all activities and policies The socio-economic development and human activities in the fact are being able to cause the rapid exhaustion of the earth’s natural resources Climate change is one of 15 contents

of ESD of UNESCO, so it is not only grasped thoroughly, but applied to composing models of developing resources in the province

4.2 Methodology

4.2.1 Collecting, analysing and integrating documents method

The author referenced many scientific documents, observation and experiment from a myriad of surely sources, such as: published articles, website of organisations

in the world, textbooks and et cetera which was relative to projecting topic The author also linked to original references which scientist used It plays a crucial part

in doing research because the author will be able to find and explain about the natural characteristics as well as recognition, an accurate assessment the impact of climate change on drought in the study area

4.2.2 Mapping, charting method

This is a useful method for geography because all geographic projects are not only opened, but closed by map The study will be more specific, visual and comprehensive by using maps Nowadays, this method is more enhanced and more effected in research by supporting of ENVI and GIS All maps in my study is composed by using MapInfo 11.0, ENVI 5.2 and Arc GIS 10.2 software

Besides that, by using chart, the correlation between components and their fluctuation will be shown over space-time For example, the temperature change in the study area will clear during periods, if we prefer showing by charts to using tables The charts belong study is created by using Microsoft Excel 2013, Minitab 16.0 and R-project software

4.2.3 Field-trip method

This is traditional method and it is used a popular way in Geographical science general and in physical geography particular Thanks to using this method, the author can gain exact and important information about manifestation and impacts of climate change in study area during the research time, the author got field trips to check precision of collected data and information because of their diversity and rich

4.2.4 Mathematical method in geography

Most of climate forecasting in future time and solutions for disaster or fluctuation of weather, caused by global warming base on mathematical statistics For example, Alfaro, Eric J (2006) [41] used statistical model for prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the Central and Western United States The most development is actually seasonal forecasting of hurricane activity (Landsea

Christopher W et al (1998 [53]; William M Gray et al (1994) [73]; Nguyen Van Tuyen

(2007), (2008) [30],[31]) For those projects applied regression method for filter variable linear

- Arithmetic mean:

1

n i i

x X

n t i

In that, 𝑋̅: arithmetic mean of x values; n is the length of x values series

- Moving average for 5 years

0

1( 2 3 4 )10

- Solving general trend equation for the fit: least-squares regression

Assuming that this is actually how the data (x1; y1), …, (xn; yn) we observe are generated, then it turns out that we can find the line for which the probability of the data is highest by solving the following optimization problem:

We are going to fit a line y = at + b which show the change in weather Here, x

is called the independent variable or predictor variable, and y is called the dependent variable or response variable Therefore, f(ti) = yi; P(ti) = ati + b

Take the place of (6) We get:

 

S b

Sloved (9)

1

n i i

y b

n

i i i n i i

y t a

n t t

4.2.5 Multiple regression Model

The study applied the multiple regression model to demonstrate the relationship among temperature, rainfall and drought index The temperature and precipitation data used cover 1978 to 2015 The explicit formulation of the model was:

Chapter 3 The effect of climate change on drought in Tien Giang province

The author discusses about drought with the impact of climate change and sea level rise on it, then suggest several solutions for adaptive capacity

CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 LITERATURE REVIEW 1.1 The history of research on climate change and drought

1.1.1 In the world

The suggested determination by French natural philosopher Joseph Fourier (1824) which the climate on the earth is the heat equilibrium between light heat and dark heat and this idea was continuously developed by Claude Pouillet (1837) At about the same time the Swiss ‘naturalist’, Louis Agassiz (1840) put forward the essential characteristics including misplaced boulders, grooved and polished rocks, etc., in major part of central Europe and even northerly latitudes more broadly were the results of glaciated process and the first this proposal was later called the greenhouse effect In 1865, the greenhouse effect which shown as water vapour and other atmospheric gases absorbed Earth’s radiant heat was the first demonstrated by the Irish physicist John Tyndall The warming power of excess carbon dioxide (CO2) was calculated the first in 1896 by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius From his calculations, Arrhenius predicted that a trend of warming would ensue if social activities enlarged CO2 levels in the atmosphere [57],[59] However, the research was disturbed by the reasons that the human causes were less than natural causes and no one else took up the research topic because scientists at that time felt there were so many other influences on global climate, from sunspots to ocean circulation, that minor human influences were thought insignificant in comparison to the mighty forces of astronomy and geology, so both Arrhenius and Chamberlin turned to other challenges

Nevertheless, this issue had already been brought up by ICSU early in the 1980s with the aim of broadening the analyses of global environmental change and in particular to emphasise studies of chemical and biological processes as a complement

to the physical aspects of global change that were in the focus of the WRCP

The autumn in 1987 [75], the report Our Common Future by WECD was about

to be discussed in the General Assembly which opened in New York It was likely

instrumental in bringing the CC issue to attention In the end 1980s, the global warming had been continued by the significantly temperature rise

Over years in the end of the 20th century and the first decades of 21st century, most of researches on climate change related on political and social events in the world Their critical level was shown by establishing of crucial international agreement, for examples: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Kyoto Protocol, and Copenhagen Accord in recently years Climate change research scale as well as its achievements have been recognized through the projects of IPCC up to now [24]

In the 1988, IPCC was established via United Nations Environment Programme

— UNEP of World Meteorological Organization – WMO In September 1988 the British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, in a talk at the Royal Society, emphasised that the issue of human-induced climate change, as a threat to mankind, would have

to be taken seriously [43] In 1990, the theory climate change was projected by IPCC, include: global warming, gas house, greenhouse effect, sea level rise…, and they were become a scientific climate change

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), also known as the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit, Rio Summit, Rio Conference, and Earth Summit (Portuguese: ECO92), was a major United Nations conference held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992 [72] ; Conference of Parties (from COP1 to COP21), etc

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets It was adopted in Kyoto, Japan,

on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005 There are currently

192 parties (Canada withdrew effective December 2012) [83] to the Protocol The Kyoto Protocol allows for greenhouse gas emission reductions to be carried out in projects implemented in other countries These projects can be carried out through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) These

“project-based” mechanisms allow Parties to the Kyoto Protocol to implement emission reduction projects in other countries in exchange for credits which can be used towards achieving the Kyoto target Under Kyoto, industrialised nations pledged

to cut their yearly emissions of carbon, as measured in six greenhouse gases, by varying amounts, averaging 5.2%, by 2012 as compared to 1990

According to the report “The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis” was published in the first months 2007 [73]: approximately 0.3% (194,000 km2) of the territory of the 84 developing countries would be impacted by a 1-meter SLR Though this remains relatively small in percentage terms, approximately 56 million people (or 1.28% of the population) of these countries would be impacted under a 1m SLR scenario This would increase to

89 million people for 2m SLR (2.03%), and 245 million people (5.57%) for 5m SLR The impact of SLR on GDP is slightly larger than the impact on population, because GDP per capita is generally above average for coastal populations and cities Wetlands would experience significant impact even with a 1m SLR Up to 7.3% of wetlands in the 84 countries would be impacted by a 5m SLR

It is true that researching on climate change and impacts for suggesting adaptation solutions is significant increasing publications nowadays However, assessing the impact of climate change on drought was not mentioned clearly into reports before 2009; they almost concentrated the impacts on flood caused by rising sea level until after in 2010 For examples, the first Turn Down the Heat (2013) [74] report found that projections of global warming, sea-level rise, tropical cyclone intensity, aridity, saltwater intrusion and drought were expected to be felt disproportionately in the developing countries around the equatorial regions relative

to the countries at higher latitudes This report extended this previous analysis by focusing on the risks of climate change to development in three critical regions of the world: Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia

At the same time that sea levels was rising, climate change was expected to influence the pattern of rainfall and drought [48] Wuebbles et al (2014) [78] ran 40

climate models and found that they all gave common predictions for the future: warming of the atmosphere and soil, lower relative humidity across the United States, and an increase in the duration, frequency, and intensity of droughts Murray, Foster, and Prentice (2012) [58] ran several climate models, and they all predicted that in this century, climate change and population growth will result in increased global water stress Sheffield and Wood (2008) [63] predicted that there will be a doubling in the frequency of droughts lasting 4 to 6 months and a three-fold increase in the frequency

of droughts lasting longer than a year

In 2015 COP21, also known as the 2015 Paris Climate Conference [83], agreed and decided that reaffirm the goal of limiting global temperature increase well below

2 degrees Celsius, while urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees and extended the current goal of mobilizing $100 billion a year in support by 2020 through 2025;

There are several publications on climate change in Southeast Asia as: Manton

et al (2001) [54]detected the trend of extreme daily rainfall in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific for the period 1961 – 1998 Satterthwaite (2009) [62], discussed how

in the much-needed planning for global emissions reduction, provision must be made

to allow low-income, low-consumption households with GHG emissions per person below the global “fair share” level to increase their consumption CGIAR Research Centre in Southeast Asia (2016), [44] conducted a first-hand observation and assessment of the degree and extent of the drought and salinity intrusion crisis in the MRD

In the study of Mekong River Delta, there are many projects published by the Mekong River Commission [55], an organisation was established on 5 April 1995 with the signing of the Agreement on the Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin that works directly with the governments

of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam on their common specific interests

1.1.2 In Vietnam

The studies on climate change in Vietnam have been published from 1990s in the previous century [12] Nguyen Duc Ngu and Nguyen Trong Hieu were pioneer in this field On June, 1991, for preparing to join Rio Conference in Brazil, Nguyen Duc Ngu, Trinh Van Thu, Nguyen Trong Hieu and Vu Van Tuan researched and put out

their report, named “Climate change and its impact on Vietnam” However, this

issues was really passionate by scientist until the following 2000 [11],[13],[14],[22], [24],[46] In December, 2nd, 2008, the prime minister approved the national target program on response to climate change, this is the main reason why most of the project related to changing climate developed from 2008 up to now [6],[71] For

examples: “Climate change” [13] supplied over 300 global warming terms; “Climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam” [2],[3],[4]; “The study climate change effects on natural conditions, resources and suggesting the strategic solutions for preventing lightening and adapting to serve the sustainable development of socio- economic in Vietnam” [24] - this was the first national climate change project [19];

“Climate change and impacts on Vietnam” [25] and the instruction manual

“Assessment of climate change impacts and making adaptation measures” [36] were

the huge learning synthetic projects for modern global warming science in Vietnam Apart from traditional trend, Vietnamese scientists are quickly approaching the achievements of using information technology in conducting research In particular,

Nguyen Xuan Lam (2013) [10] and his project “Application of remote sensing technology in overseeing, warning climate change impacts, preventing and disaster risk reduction” In addition, they are being attached special important to impact of

climate change on ocean and islands, such as: Assessment of climate change impacts

on some Vietnamese typical island group and suggest to adaptation measures [1], Composing extremism weather scenario period 2015-2030 for Vietnamese Eastern Sea by using climate change scenario in Kakushin Project [5]

By trend of climate change and water resources, there was a project “Impact of climate change on Vietnamese water resources” by Tran Thanh Xuan in 2011 [34]

It introduced basing-information about water resources, climate change, its impact and water needs in Vietnam

In addition, there is a number of other works may be mentioned, which were performed in some regions of the country and certainly contributed to the overall development of the study of climate change, includes: Le Sam [17],[18] the saline water intrusion in the Mekong Delta in the dry season; Tran Hong Thai (2013) [23], The study of climate change impacts on water resources changing in Mekong Delta,

Vu Van Phai (2013) [15], Accessing research of fluctuating coastal zone in South of Vietnam by the impact of climate change and sea level rise and so on

Under historical and political perspective on climate change, include: Le Anh Tuan (2009) [30] for an overview of climate change research and adaptation activities

in Southern Vietnam, and Phan Van Tan for Climate change in Vietnam – several result, challenge and opportunity within international cooperation and integration [22]

For research on climate change and drought, include: Le Sam and his projects [17],[18] in Me Kong River Delta in dry season; Nguyen Dang Tin [26],[27] evaluated the probability of meteorological drought occurrence and characteristics by using two indices and two modules in the forecasting model for the Mekong River;

and Tran Van Ty [33] assessed the current status of meteorological droughts, and to

assess impacts of climate change on meteorological drought and mapped for the whole Mekong Delta of Vietnam as well as thus potential drought areas were identified

To some extent, they have no mentioned several scenario which have been building for the provinces and localities by scientists These study also gradually go deep into the physical nature and the evidences of climate change The results of these researches illustrate that the climate in Vietnam has made some clear signs of changing

by climate change scenarios (belong to Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment’s scenarios) Third, the topic Climate change ad sea level rise adaption

by application of MIKE 11 for accessing working ability and installing running diagram on drains into Go Cong fresh water irrigation system in Tien Giang province [38] The project accessed working ability on drains at tidal regions into Go Cong fresh water irrigation system by using MIKE 11 model under sea level rise scenarios The result had been quantified the effect of sea level rise on regions and suggested engineering solutions to get used to global warming by sustainable development On the other hand, climate change and the ability operation of the irrigation system in Tan Phu Dong district, Tien Giang provinc [39] This paper summarized the results

of studies on the ability to meet current as well as the operation of the irrigation system in Tan Phu Dong district in terms of climate change, rising sea level to meet the requirements of sustainable development Likewise, the study of climate system

to access climate change impacts on Go Cong region in Tien Giang province of Vo Van Thong and Tran Xuan Thanh [28], it got in Go Cong region (includes Go Cong

Tay, Go Cong Dong, Tan Phu Dong district and Go Cong hometown) and vicinity areas (Vung Tau province, Tan Son Hoa, Ba Tri, Can Duoc and Binh Dai district) to collect, analyse climatic factors Then, composing meteorology data by using GIS to manage, develop on accessing climate change impacts on socio-economic at Go Cong region and base on warning in the future

Besides, it cannot be unmentioned to overcome the impacts of climate change and sea level rise on agricultural sustainability in Tien Giang province by structural measures of Huynh Le Ninh Khoa [9] The article referred to the study and provide structural measures to upgrade the sewer system, combining the non-structural measures accordance with the actual situation in order to overcome the effects of climate change, rising sea facilitate for the agricultural sustainability Tien Giang

To sum up, for the same in the world, most of researches in Tien Giang

province would put out everywhere in Vietam However, they only generally forecasted the effects and global climate change and sea level rise scripts or during used general the published results of the IPCC, the UNDP and the World Bank mentioning South Asia, South East Asia and Vietnam Overview, it is necessary to study that some problems have not mentioned in Tien Giang province in previous time, includes:

- Most of projects was only enjoy the impact of climate change on agriculture, drains at tidal regions, salt water by using calculating models and suggesting adaption solutions

- They had not mentioned climatic factors and weather happening in province over time to show overview climate changing in Tien Giang province

- They have also never been projected the effect of climate change on drought although it seriously effects on the hardship

Hence, I have chosen the project “assessing the impact of climate change on drought at my hometown – Tien Giang province and the researches on historical of study will be references

1.2 Theoretical basis of study

1.2.1 Weather and climate

The climate and weather are the result of complicated interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere (free water, i.e liquid or vapour), cryosphere (frozen water), biosphere and lithosphere which together form (and define) the climate system

1.2.1.1 Definition of weather

Weather refers to the state of the air outside Sometimes it’s cold and wet; sometimes it’s warm and dry A bright, sunny morning may be followed by a windy, cloudy afternoon Weather is different in different places around the world In some places the weather is the same every day, and in other places it changes every hour Hence, weather is usually defined as the condition of the atmosphere at a particular

location at a particular time [45] According Lamb, weather is taken to mean the totality of atmospheric conditions at any particular place and time - the instantaneous state of the atmosphere and especially those elements of it which directly affect living things Its meaning may be extended to include exposure to radiation from the sun and to the sky, as permitted by the state of the atmosphere The elements of the weather are such things as temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, cloudiness, rain, sunshine, winds, visibility, considered separately [51] Weather is a principal

definition because weather conditions are always changing We need to know about the weather so that we can build the right type of homes, wear the right clothes, and travel at the right time If people on ships and planes know about the weather, they can avoid bad storms If farmers know about the weather, they can plant and cut down crops at the right time

1.2.1.1 Definition of climate

Each area of the Earth has a unique climate based on the weather conditions, like temperature and precipitation that occur over a period of time [51] Scientists determine the climate of an area by recording weather conditions over the course of years to create an average For example, the Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan province are typically dried climate area in Vietnam although in several year the precipitation

in there was higher the annual average rainfall, in general the climate in this area still hot and dry

Weather can change, but climates stay the same most of the time Weather and climate are of prime interest to the physical geography because they affect and are interrelated with all of Earth’s environments We must notice that, because the actual ranges and the average values and other statistics will all differ according to what years we consider, we can only define the climate in terms of some period of time - some chosen run of years, a particular decade or decades, some epoch The epoch or period of reference (or datum period) should always be specified, since the figures for different periods themselves differ somewhat Moreover, the figures representing all elements or aspects of the climate under discussion at any one time should relate

to the same period of years Otherwise, there is no necessary physical connexion between them, and understanding becomes impossible

1.2.2 Climate change and sea level rise

1.2.1.1 Definition of climate change

The Oxford Dictionary defines climate change as the changes in the earth’s weather, including changes in temperature, wind patterns and rainfall, especially the increase in the temperature of the earth’s atmosphere apparent from the mid to late 20th century that is caused by the increase of particular gases, especially carbon dioxide However, they are defined that the way the world’s weather is changing by

Cambridge Dictionary

All the way back on May 9th 1992, United Nation defined “climate change” as man-made See The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: Climate change

[72] is defined as “change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”

IPCC [47],[48],[49], climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing’s such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article

1, defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’ The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable

to human activities altering the atmospheric composition and climate variability attributable to natural causes

to expected climate and its effects

b Mitigation of climate change

A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse

gases (GHGs) This report also assesses human interventions to reduce the sources of

other substances which may contribute directly or indirectly to limiting climate change, including, for example, the reduction of particulate matter emissions that can

directly alter the radiation balance (e.g., black carbon) or measures that control emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, Volatile Organic Compounds and other pollutants that can alter the concentration of tropospheric ozone which has an

indirect effect on the climate

1.2.2.3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and sea level rise [49]

Scenarios that include time series of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well

as land use/land cover The word representative signifies that each RCP provides only one of many possible scenarios that would lead to the specific radiative forcing characteristics The term pathway emphasizes that not only the long-term

concentration levels are of interest, but also the trajectory taken over time to reach that outcome RCPs usually refer to the portion of the concentration pathway extending up to 2100, for which Integrated Assessment Models produced

corresponding emission scenarios Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs)

describe extensions of the RCPs from 2100 to 2500 that were calculated using simple rules generated by stakeholder consultations and do not represent fully consistent scenarios

Four RCPs produced from Integrated Assessment Models were selected from

the published literature and are used in the present IPCC Assessment as a basis for

the climate predictions and projections presented in WGI AR5:

RCP2.6: One pathway where radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W/m2

before 2100 and then declines (the corresponding ECP assuming constant emissions after 2100)

RCP4.5 and RCP6.0: Two intermediate stabilization pathways in which

radiative forcing is stabilized at approximately 4.5 W/m2 and 6.0 W/m2 after 2100 (the corresponding ECPs assuming constant concentrations after 2150)

RCP8.5: One high pathway for which radiative forcing reaches >8.5 W/m2 by

2100 and continues to rise for some amount of time (the corresponding ECP assuming constant emissions after 2100 and constant concentrations after 2250)

Sea level can change, both globally and locally, due to (i) changes in the shape

of the ocean basins, (ii) changes in the total mass of water and (iii) changes in water density Factors leading to sea level rise under global warming include both increases

in the total mass of water from the melting of land-based snow and ice, and changes

in water density from an increase in ocean water temperatures and salinity changes

Relative sea level rise occurs where there is a local increase in the level of the ocean

relative to the land, which might be due to ocean rise and/or land level subsidence

1.2.3 Drought

A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance Drought is a relative term; therefore any discussion in terms of precipitation deficit must refer to the particular precipitation-related activity that is under discussion For example, shortage of precipitation during the growing season

impinges on crop production or ecosystem function in general (due to soil moisture

drought, also termed agricultural drought) and during the runoff and percolation season primarily affects water supplies (hydrological drought) Storage changes in soil moisture and groundwater are also affected by increases in actual evapotranspiration in addition to reductions in precipitation A period with an abnormal precipitation deficit is defined as a meteorological drought A mega-drought is a very lengthy and pervasive drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more

Drought is considered as a major natural hazard, affecting several sectors of the

economy and the environment worldwide (Tigkas et al, 2015; Tsakiris et al, 2007)

[67],[69] Palmer (Palmer, 1965; Maliva and Missimer, 2012) [60],[53] defined a drought as a meteorological phenomenon that is characterized by “prolonged and abnormal moisture deficiency”, and more specifically as an interval of time, generally

on the order of months or years in duration, during which the actual moisture supply

at a given place rather consistently falls short of climatically expected or climatically appropriate moisture supply Drought can be classified into different forms such as daily drought, monthly drought and yearly drought

Drought indices are important elements of drought monitoring and assessment since they simplify complex interrelationships between many climate and climate-related parameters Indices make it easier to communicate information about climate anomalies to diverse user audiences and allow scientists to assess quantitatively climate anomalies in terms of their intensity, duration, frequency and spatial extent [69] There are several indices that measure how much precipitation for a given period

of time has deviated from historically established norms [7],[16],[77],[78]

Although none of the major indices is inherently superior to the rest in all circumstances, some indices are better suited than others for certain uses For example, the Palmer Drought Severity Index [77] has been widely used by the U.S Department of Agriculture to determine when to grant emergency drought assistance, but the Palmer is better when working with large areas of uniform topography Western states, with mountainous terrain and the resulting complex regional microclimates, find it useful to supplement Palmer values with other indices such as the Surface Water Supply Index, which takes snowpack and other unique conditions into account

It is not mentioned temperature by using formula for calculation because of meteorological station alone in Tien Giang province, however, it is better to apply RDI for determining drought index in there by using data from nearest measuring stations and identical terrain

The Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) was developed to approach the water deficit in a more accurate way, as a sort of balance between input and output in a

water system (Tsakiris and Vangelis, 2005; Tsakiris et al, 2007) [68],[69] It is based

both on cumulative precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), which are one measured (P) and one calculated (PET) determinant The initial value (αk) of

RDI is calculated for the i-th year in a time basis of k (months) as follows:

ij 1 ( )

1

, 1(1) and j = 1(1)k

k

j i

ij j

in which Pij and PETij are the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of

the j-th month of the i-th year and N is the total number of years of the available data

Monthly average PET (Maliva and Missimer, 2012) [53] (mm/month) according to the Hargreaves method requires monthly average geo-datasets of 1) mean temperature (Tmean, C°); 2) daily temperature range (TD, C°) and 3) extra-terrestrial radiation (RA, radiation on top of atmosphere expressed in mm/month as equivalent of evaporation), as shown below:

PET = 0.0023*RA*(T-mean + 17.8)*TD0.5 (mm / month) (2) The values of αk follow satisfactorily both the lognormal and the gamma distributions in a wide range of locations and different time scales, in which they were

tested (Tigkas, 2008; Tsakiris et al, 2008) [65],[70]

Table 1 RDI classification

1.3 Overview study area

1.3.1 Geographic location

Tien Giang province is both of the Mekong Delta and in the Southern key economic zone, which is growing the second economic region rapidly It is located at from 10o12’20’’ to 10o35’26’’N latitude, 105o49’07’’ to 106o48’06’’W longitude, along the North of the Tien River (a tributary of the Mekong River) with a length of 120km and bordered on Long An and Ho Chi Minh City to the North and North-east,

on Dong Thap province to the West, Ben Tre to the South and Eastern sea to the East

(see Figure 1.1)

Because of its location between two economic areas, Tien Giang is very convenient in the way for accessing many projects, industry’s investment, scientific knowledge, improve production technology, management, executive producer and so

- Upland areas along Tien river (natural river dyke) distributed along the Tien River and extends from Tan Hung (Cai river) to Dong Xuan (Cho Gao river) Common elevation from 0.9 – 1.3 m, especially on high ground along the river ranges Highway 1 south from the town of Hung Hoa Cai was due mostly to the garden should

be high up to 1.6 – 1.8 m

- Geographical areas in Cai Lay, Cai Be, the lines between business and the range of Nguyen Van Tiep high ground elevation riparian popular Tien river from 0.7 – 1.0 m and tends to lower economic Nguyen Van Tiep On two regional areas with sand dunes sand dunes and surrounding areas have greater elevation is 1.0m mounds Cai Lay (including Binh Phu, Thanh Hoa, Long Khanh town of Cai Lay, Tan Binh,

US II) and Second quarter mounds (extending from the refrigerator Dinh Nhi You come close) Therefore, the area between two mounds are riparian upland range Cash (including Long Tien area, My Long, Ban Long, Binh Trung) has a lower elevation and drainage difficult

- Lying areas north of Dong Thap Muoi (including most of Tan Phuoc district) with common elevation from 0.60 – 0.75 m, particularly in Tan Lap Commune, Tan Lap 1 and 2 is low in elevation to 0.4 – 0.5m Due to the annual flood of the Mekong River in Dong Thap Muoi overflow plus low elevation ground so this is most flooded areas of the province

- Go Cong area from the eastern limit of Cho Gao to the Eastern Sea, with common elevation of 0.8 and lower from the Southeast, the Eastern Sea to only 0.4 – 0.6m There are two low-lying areas local commune, Thanh Tri, Yen Luong, Binh Tan (Go Cong Tay) and Tan Dien, Tan Thanh (Go Cong Dong) Due to sedimentation

in effect from the mouth of Mango Theatre launched, northern coastal areas (Tan Trung, Tan Phuoc, Gia Thuan Vam Lang) has elevation than the South

The locality has many sand dunes bow with common elevation from 0.9 – 1.1m standing out above the surrounding plain

1.3.2.2 Climate

For the geographic location mentioned on the top, Tien Giang climate inner nature tropics – equatorial and tropical monsoon climate to higher average temperatures and warm all year round The annual average temperature is fluctuated from 27 to 27.9 degrees Celsius; total accumulation temperature about 10,183oC per year

There are two seasons: the dry season from December to April last year following years; the rainy season from May to November (usually limited three ligament in July, August)

Tien Giang is in the range less rain, the average rainfall is 1,210 – 1,424mm per year and distributed at gradually from north to south, from west to east; the average moisture content 80-85%

Here is affected by Asian monsoon system, include two guide in the fact is the Northeast (dry season) and Southwest (rainy season); the average speed of 2.5 – 6m/s

1.3.2.3 Water resource

Tien Giang has a network of rivers, canals, coastline facilitate the exchange of goods with neighbouring areas and the environment for the aquaculture and fishing products The river flows through Tien Giang province include: Tien River is the main source of fresh water, which flows through the territory of Tien Giang 115km, Vam Co Tay River: a river without source, the river flows mostly from Tien transfer via river Vam Co Tay River is where to get water from the Dong Thap Muoi flooding

targets escaped and is one primary salinisation online In addition, the province also has a number of rivers and ditches in river basins Tien and Vam Co Tay River is very important in contributing to the circulation, transport of goods and for production such as: Cai Be, Ba Rai, Tra Tan, Phu Phong, Rach bang, Bao Dinh, Vam Ki Hon,

Vam Giong, Quan Long, Cong, Tra, etc (see Figure 1.2)

Tien Giang bordering the East Sea region Go Cong Dong district with 32km of coastline located between the large estuaries Vam Co and sub shop, Cua Dai (Tien River) coastal Provided between the estuary should be super favourable for aquaculture and fishing products, marine economic However, it is seriously impact

of rising sea level

Groundwater across the province have 3 potential aquifers, with wealth from large to medium water, good quality, qualified operators large and medium scale units including the Pliocene on, Pliocene and Miocene below These units have been concentrated distribution in My Tho, Cai Lay; elsewhere, the ability to exploit limited At My Tho, flows in exploitation than 40.000m3 per day

In recent years, the natural in here have been considerably affected by disaster fluctuation caused by global warming, such as: typhoon, storm, lower of water level

in upper Mekong River, saltwater intrusion, and so on

+ Saline group: Occupy 14.6% of the total natural area 34.552ha, occupies a large area of Go Cong Dong District, Go Cong Town, Go Cong Tay and Cho Gao district part Essentially such favourable land alluvial soils, but saline or regular periods If saline soils are washed will be very suitable for agricultural production with relative plant species diversity

+ Alkaline soil Group: Occupying an area of 19.4% 45.912ha natural area, distributed mainly in low-lying areas north of Dong Thap Muoi 3 Cai Be District, Cai Lay, Tan Phuoc This type of soil sediments formed on coastal marshes in the process

of creating marine degradation, so rich organic soils and alum Potential acid sulphate soils and deep operations (alum less) with an area less than the potential acid sulphate soil and agricultural activities (alum more) at the rate of 6.82% compared to 12.19% Nam alkaline soils occupy a small area along the low land allocation (alluvial soil) tidal flooding along the tidal creek valley undiminished

Tien Giang is quite monotonous biosphere while it is toward to estuaries

Coastal plant family include: Verbenaceae, Rhizophorzceae, Bruguiera parviflora, Rhizophora mucronata… Brackish water: including breeding and spawning and

juvenile fish move deeper into the shore, the estimated annual volume of shrimp, crab, fish, clams, oysters …