V MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY NGUYEN NGOC ANH RESEACH ON FACTORS AFFECTING PRICES OF URBAN RESIDENTIAL LAND IN THAI NGUYEN CITY, THAI NGUYEN PROVINCE Sp
Trang 1V MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY
NGUYEN NGOC ANH
RESEACH ON FACTORS AFFECTING PRICES OF URBAN RESIDENTIAL LAND IN THAI NGUYEN CITY, THAI
NGUYEN PROVINCE
Speciality: Land Managerment Code: 62.85.01.03
SUMMARY OF PHILOSOPHY DOCTORAL DISSERTATION
Thai Nguyen, year 2017
Trang 2The dissertation has been completed at:
College of Agriculture and Forestry - Thai Nguyen University
Scientific Supervisor:
Assoc Prof Nguyen The Hung, PhD
Reviewer 1: ……… Reviewer 2: ……… Reviewer 3: ………
PhD Dissertation will be presented and defended at the College of Agriculture and Forestry - Thai Nguyen University
At am/pm date month year 2017
PhD Dissertation would be found in:
- National Library
- Learning Resource Centre - TNU
- Library in College of Agriculture and Forestry
Trang 3LIST OF PUBLICATION RELATED TO PhD DISSERTATION
1 Nguyen Ngoc Anh, Nguyen The Hung, Phan Dinh Binh (2016) The study of factors affecting urban land price in Thai Nguyen city, Thai Nguyen province Journal on Agriculture and Rural Development, No 12, 2016, pp 26 - 33
2 Nguyen Ngoc Anh, Nguyen The Hung, Phan Dinh Binh (2016) Study on the difference between land urban price on the market and land price regulation in Thai Nguyen city, Thai Nguyen province Journal on Agriculture and Rural Development, No 19,
2016, pp 18 - 26
Trang 4INTRODUCTION
1 The necessity of the study
In fact, the land price market in Thai Nguyen city is a significant fluctuations, price increases strongly and rapidly over the years Meanwhile, to ensure the stability of economic - social issues, the land price of the State does not increase which causes a huge difference level compared to the market This leads to the number of shortcomings in managing and using land Background on the set for the show to systematically review the rationale and practice of land valuation, assessing the impact of factors to the value of land as a basis for completion of management and valuation to apply in Vietnam in the coming time is necessary, given both theoretical and
practical Stemming from this reality, thesis: "Research on factors
affecting price of urban residential land in Thai Nguyen City, Thai Nguyen Province" to contribute to the work gradually improved
valuation of land urban in Thai Nguyen city - Thai Nguyen province
2 Research Objectives
- Research on the relationship and differences between land urban prices in the market and land prices by state regulation in Thai Nguyen city
- Identify and analyze the influence of a number of factors affecting the land urban price to building land valuation standards to fit with the price index in the market of Thai Nguyen city
- Preliminary research building modeling land urban valuation in the Thai Nguyen city to make forecasts for the future in a scientific way, help the State capture, management of land prices, study the formation and development of the real estate market, therefrom giving appropriate management measures
Trang 53 The contributions of the thesis
3.1 Scientific significance
Contributing to clarify the scientific theory about the factors affecting land urban prices and mass valuation of land urban in Vietnam
3.2 Practical significance
- Contribute to raising knowledge of land price management system in the Thai Nguyen city about the factors affecting land urban prices, creating conditions for raising the quality of land prices management in the Thai Nguyen city
- Create tools of mass land valuation, can be applied to improve the process of building the State's land price in the Thai Nguyen city
4 New scientific findings
(1) Identifying the most important factors affecting land prices, level of their influence and factor ranking by their level affecting the urban residential land price in the Thai Nguyen City Those factors are: location, infrastructure, environmental condition, legal policy, individual characters of land parcels, economic and social condition (2) The study initially identified the equations describing dependence of urban residential land price on above-mentioned factors This equation is a foundation for constructing Thai Nguyen provincial urban residential land price and for consulting price for a given specific urban residential land parcels in Estate Agent
5 Thesis structure
The thesis includes 120 pages typed in A4 size divided in 3 chapters excluding introduction, conclusion and recommendations (Chapter 1:
Chapter 3: Results of research)
The thesis has 22 tables and 08 figures (excluding the appendix for illustration), gets reference from 86 documents, in which 64 documents are in Vietnamese, and 22 documents are in foreign languages
Trang 6Chapter 1
DOCUMENT OVERVIEW
Through research and analysis of relevant issues in Vietnam and other countries in the world, it shows that research results obtained fairly systems in various fields:
- Concept of land market: There are many different concepts,
however, all most of them show that land market includes civil transactions according to the law in an area and in a certain time It
is active market for transactions such as: business, exchange, rent, mortgage, demise,…
- Land prices, land valuation: In terms of overall, land price is the
selling price of land ownership, is the value of that land ownership in space and determine time Land valuation is an estimate of land value in monetary form for an intended use has been identified, at a determine time
- Land valuation methods: To estimate value of real estate, can
use the methods of real estate valuation different However, in the operation valuation, we can not use a independently method which between them have a relationship of mutual cross-checking
- Experience management and valuation of countries in the world: Synthesis and summarize the experience of countries in the
world in the use of land valuation methods, ways of organizing, construction and public announced land price
- Factors affecting land price: The study has shed light on the
factors affecting land price, On the basis of explaining to confirm the reliability and effect of factors in calculation process of determining land prices
Trang 7Chapter 2 CONTENT AND RESEACH METHODS
2.1 Object and scope of the study
The thesis research management, land valuation and the factors affecting the land urban price in the Thai Nguyen city, Thai Nguyen Province
2.2 Contents of the study
2.2.1 Natural conditions, society-economic and land use situation in Thai Nguyen city
2.2.2 Evaluation of construction, management and land urban price movements follow prescribed by state in the Thai Nguyen city 2.2.3 The difference between the State’s land urban price and land price market in the city
2.2.4 Factors affecting the land urban price in the study area
2.2.5 Preliminary studies modeling to determine land urban prices
in Thai Nguyen city
2.2.6 Solutions proposed to effectively perform the valuation and
2.3 Reseach methods
2.3.1 Methods of collecting secondary data
2.3.2 Research methods for selecting the location and route survey
Select areas, representative streets, reflect the economic development, social of the city and land prices of the region, that route is more movement
2.3.3 Methods of survey sampling, interviews
1 Determine samples number of collecting
Trang 8- To evaluate the factors affecting the land urban price in the Thai Nguyen city, the study surveyed 300 sample includes objects that the staff of Resources & Environment Department, officials of land registration office, real estate investors, brokers,
- To build predictive models to determine land urban prices in Thai Nguyen city, researchers surveyed 250 samples are successfully transferred property in the city
2 Building investigation form
On the basis of information to be collected, studied conducting
land prices and investigation form to collect information on land urban plots transferred success in the Thai Nguyen city
3 Sampling methods
Conducting a surveys of 300 samples to collect information investigate the factors affecting land urban prices in Thai Nguyen city, of which 216 samples are individual stock investing and real estate business in the 18 wards of Thai Nguyen city (12 samples per ward); 70 samples is the staff of Resources and Environment departments, officials land registration office, and 14 samples is the teller at the real estate broker center in the Thai Nguyen city Conducting a survey of 250 samples are real estate successfully transferred located on 27 selected routes (region I: 9 routes; region II:
9 routes and region III: 9 routes) In addition, there is the consultation
of cadastral officer and teller in the real estate brokers center in the Thai Nguyen city to get information and more accurate judgment
2.3.4 Statistical methods, described
2.3.5 Comparative method
2.3.6 Analytical methods determine the factors affecting land prices
Trang 91 Quy trình nghiên cứu
Figure 2.1: Process of researching factors effect
to land price
2 Scales design
Liker scale: level 1: Not important; level 2: Less important; level 3: Neutral (not identified important or not); level 4: Important; level 5: Very important
3 Theories inspection and assessment
(1) Scale quality inspection:
According to Hoang Trong and Chu Nguyen Mong Ngoc (2005) defined criteria Cronbach Alpha coefficients have values from 0,8 to nearly 1 are possible scale; from 0,7 to 0,8 can be used According to Nunnally, J C (1978) and Robert A Peterson (1994), said that Cronbach's alpha is 0,6 or higher can be used In addition, to use additional criteria total correlation coefficient (Corrected Item - Total
Trang 10Correlation), in which the variables has total correlated variables
<0,3 will be removed
(2) Analysis of EFA explored factors
- Suitability inspection of EFA: Standard: 0,5 ≤ KMO ≤ 1,0 and
Sig <0,05; If KMO <0,5, factor analysis is not appropriate for data
- Correlation inspection of observed variables: Use Bartlet test to
evaluate observed variables are correlated with each other in a scale (factor) When significance level Sig of Bartlet test ≤ 0,05 => observed variables are correlated linearly with representative factors
- Interpretation inspection of observed variables with factor: Use
extracting factors standard including Eigenvalue index (representing variation is explained by factors) and Total Varicance Explained index (total variance extracted show that factors explain how much percent) According to, Eigenvalue ≥1 and total variance ≥ 50%
- Standard of factor loading: Factor loading is an indication to
ensure practical significance of EFA (Ensuring practical-significance), indicates single correlation between variables with factors, is used to assess EFA significance According to Hair & ctg (1998), said that: Factor Loading ≥ 0,55 if 100 ≤ sample size <350 samples
(3) Inspections of multivariate regression analysis:
- Partial correlation inspection of regression coefficients: When
Sig significance of regression coefficient less than 0,05 (Sig <0,05), which of reliability significance is 95%, will be concluded correlated with statistically significant between independent variables and dependent variables
- Suitability inspection of model: Using analysis of ANOVA
variance (Analysis of variance) to test If level of significance to ensure reliability of at least 95% (Sig.<0,05), reject H0 hypothesis
Trang 11- Testing of multi-collinear phenomenon: When VIF coefficient
<10, model not multi-collinearity phenomenon
- Inspection of constant residual variance: In this case, using
Spearman test: If level of significance (Sig.) of Spearman correlation coefficient assurance greater 0,05 (Sig.> 0,05); accept H0 and reject
2.3.7 Construction method of land price regression model
Figure 2.2: Analysis diagram of Regression process
3 Hypotheses testing and model evaluation
Regression model to ensure reliability and efficiency to implement inspection as described in content (3) Section 2.3.6
Trang 12Chapter 3 RESULTS OF RESEACH
3.1 Natural conditions, social-economic and land use situation in Thai Nguyen city
3.1.1 Natural conditions
Thai Nguyen city is grade I urban, located in mountainous of Northern center region, Northeast Hanoi capital about 80km and is surrounded by 5 districts of Thai Nguyen province, with 18.630,56ha total area Thai Nguyen city bearing same features of Vietnam Northeast climate, under denatured monsoon tropical, climate has 2 distinct seasons
3.1.2 Economic and social conditions
Although Thai Nguyen city is a center of Thai Nguyen province, but agricultural land still accounts for 65,15% of total natural land Agricultural production has been positive change in both quantity and quality, development of commodity production, farming practices, technical, productivity, output has been enhanced over the years
3.1.3 Lan use and management
3.1.3.1 Land use
As result of land inventory on 01.01.2015, natural area of Thai Nguyen city is 18.630,56 ha, by using the following purposes: Farmland: 12.138,87 ha; Non-agricultural land: 6.122,94 ha Unused land: 368,75 ha
Since 1993, land law was enacted with provisions for land allocation stable, long-term users are tied to land use rights extend close to ownership, management state of land use rights with variables important change in terms of both quantity and quality The
Trang 13State has issued many legal documents specifying Land law, which recognizes land valuable and is a special commodity, whereby the transfer relations, trade more common place, but management to more difficult and complicated
3.2 Evaluation of construction, management and land urban price movements follow prescribed by state in the Thai Nguyen city
3.2.1 Management of land prices
To carry out construction of land price and land price announced, Committee of Thai Nguyen Province are issued document: Designation 1365/2004/QD-UB in 21/06/2004; Designation 498/2007/QD-UB in 03/23/2007; Designation 03/2012/QD-UB in 21/02/2012 and Designation 13/2015/QD-UB in 15/6/2015 of Committee, promulgating regulations to order and procedures for determining land price and specific land valuation in Thai Nguyen province
3.2.2 Construction of land price
Process of building land prices in Thai Nguyen province with Designation 03/2012/QD-UB in 21/02/2012 of Committee of Thai Nguyen province
3.2.3 Land urban price movements of State in the Thai Nguyen city period 2010 - 2014
In recent years, land price in Thai Nguyen city is fluctuated To explore and evaluate factors affecting land prices in the city, the study conducts genaral land prices in some road represent 03 streets types of city from 2010 to 2014 The results showed that, land urban price was also rised significantly, but it was not constant and strong fluctuation through the years Land prices was defined in routes of center city, near the center and outlying routes tended to increase from 2010 to 2011, from 2012 to 2014, land prices was stable