Climate change impacts: Challenges for food security and sustainable agricultural productivity growth in Vietnam

Climate change impacts: Challenges for food security and sustainable agricultural productivity growth in Vietnam Geetha Mohan Ph.D..  What is climate change, food security and sustaina

Climate change impacts: Challenges for food security and sustainable agricultural

productivity growth in Vietnam

Geetha Mohan Ph.D

Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science

IR3S, University of Tokyo

 What is climate change, food security and

sustainability

and agriculture production

What is Climate Change?

 Short-term:

Greater Climate Variability

including extreme events (floods, drought etc.,)

 Long-term: Shifts

in mean climate conditions

(changes in expected rainfall months etc.,)

Source: FAO 2009

Increase in Global mean temperature ( 0 C)

National Centre for Hydrometeorological Forecasting, MONRE 2010 Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control, 2010

Impacts of natural disasters on agriculture

Paddy & cultivation area loss due to natural

calamity (000 ha) Number of flash flood over years

Food Security

FAO (2003) refers to the existence of food security

“ when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access

to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food for a healthy and active life ” FAO (2009) has also reported that while globally the impact of

climate change on food production may be small, at least until

Dimensions of food security

Stability of supply, without seasonal fluctuations or shortages

Increased livelihood risks, pressure on food prices;

Higher dependency on food imports and food aid

FAO (2009)

Challenges on food security

 Food insecurity, food deficits or shortages are major concerns of all countries

 However, it will vary from country to country, and much will

depend on the degree of investments on agriculture, food

distribution systems, early warning measures, transport and

communications An overriding factor concerns appropriate policies on food security

For e.g small farmers and medium farmers

 nutritional and food insecurity problems

 Difficulties to minimize and ensure sustainable

consistent farm produce are major challenges for small farmers

and diminishing arable land,

particularly in the developing

countries, has increased the stress on

the natural resource base

 It is now incontestable that

sustainable agriculture is seen as an

important goal throughout the world Photo Courtesy: UNO

Food Availability

Northern provinces

achieved food

sufficiency

Per capita milled rice Per capita foodgrain

Kg of milled rice equiv

Source: Nguyen Trung Kien, 2013

020406080100120140

Rice (1000 VND/kg) Pork (1000 VND/kg)Beef (1000 VND/kg) Buffalo meat (1000 VND/kg)Poultry (1000 VND/kg) CPI (%)

Real income growth (%)

Source: VHLSS 2002 – 2012

Food Utilization Threat of Undernourished Children

Percentage of Under-5 Children Undernourished (weight for age)

Source: Nguyen Trung Kien, 2013

Households by Farm size (%)

North Central andCentral coastalareas

Central Highlands South East Mekong River Delta

Source: Nguyen Trung Kien, 2013

Food Security Policies

 Land policies for agricultural

production

 Policies on water resources for

agriculture production

 Policies on infrastructure for agriculture

 Policies on rice price

 Restrict export in emergency case

 Policy to support directly to paddy

farmers

Case Study-Vietnam

Introduction

 Agriculture is very important sector for Vietnamese economy However, improving agricultural output will leads to enhance farmers livelihoods and their household incomes

 Agriculture sector contributes 16 percent of National GDP (GoSF, Vietnam); and the annual agricultural exports are

around 30 percent in 2006 (WDI)

 Around 70 percent of the population are living in rural areas; and that fifty percent of the population are directly engaged

in agricultural activities (World Bank)

Introduction Cntd…

0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0

GDP at Constant 1994 prices, Vietnam-1990-2010

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery Industry and Construction Service

37.0 16.5

19.3

35.7

57.4 64.5 30.6

24.7 59.4 57.4

52.4 21.7 7.7 46.4

14.5

3.0 5.8

3.7 9.7 6.3

5.5

6.6 1.2 1.9

1.0 3.2 3.0

2.1

17.3 19.9 15.7 7.2 8.0 18.5 15.4

Land use pattern, Vietnam-2011

Agricultural Land Forestry Land Specially used Land Homestead Land Others

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam

Cropping Pattern in Vietnam

Climate change and impact on crop yield

Impact of climate change in Vietnam, 2020 - 2100

Source: MONRE, 2009

Source: Van Dijk et al., 2013

Review of Literature

Cross-Country

Fulginiti and Perrin (1997) 18 LDC in 1961-85

Lusigi & Thirtle (1997) 47 Africa Countries in 1961-91

Rao & Coelli (1998) 97 countries in 1980-95

Trueblood & Coggins (2003) 115 countries in 1961-91

Coelli & Rao (2003) 93 countries in 1980-2000

With in the Country

Mao and Koo (1997) 29 Provinces, 1984-1993

Conradie, Piesse & Thirtle (2009) 31 Magisterial Districts, Western Cape,1952 to 2002 Armagan, Ozden & Bekcioglu (2010) Region-wise, Turkey in 1994-2003

Nicholas, Buccola & Fuglie (2011) Provincial-wise, Indonesia, 1985-2005

Shilpa (2012) State-wise, India, 1983-84 to 2005-06

Fantu N B (2012) Zone-wise, Ethiopia, 2003-04 to 2008-09

Mohan Geetha & Hirotaka Matsuda

(2013) 10 Regions, Ghana, 2000-09

Data and Methodology

Particular Source Period Extra/Interpolation

of Vietnam, 2000

2 General Statistics Office of Vietnam Online Database

1985-2007** 1 Agricultural Labour

(2004-2007)

2 Agricultural Land (1988, 1989 and

1999 to 2004)

3 Machinery (2000, 2007)

1985-2007

* Livestock calculations based on Hayami and Ruttan (1970)

** For analysis purpose, we considered only 61 provinces instead of 64 provinces because the new 3 provinces are formed after 2004 They are Dien Bien from Lai Chau; Dak Lak from Dak

Nong; Hau Giay from Can Tho

Methodology

 The Malmquist Index measures the TFP changes between two data points (for e.g those of a particular regions in two adjacent time periods)

 TFP growths and decomposition components (Efficiency and Technical Change)

 Following Färe et al (1994) the Malmquist TFP index between

period t and t+1 is given by

The Malmquist index could be decomposed into an efficiency change component and a technical change component

M0 >1 indicates positive TFP growth from period t+1 to period t, while M0 <1indicates a TFP

decline

Methodology Cntd……

 Impacts of causal factors on Total Factor Productivity Growth

 The Cobb-Douglas Production function

Methodology Cntd

R2 Regional Dummy- Mekong River Delta

R3 Regional Dummy- Central Coast

R4 Regional Dummy- Northern Midlands

R5 Regional Dummy- Red River Delta

R6 Regional Dummy- South East

γ2 , γ3 , γ4 , γ5 , and γ6 The coefficients for the binary regressors

Central Highlands MekongDelta CentralCoast MidlandsNorth Red RiverDelta South East Vietnam

Growth rate of Total Factor Productivity in

Vietnam and Regions

1985-1995 1996-2007 1985-2007

-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.00

Central Highlands MekongDelta CentralCoast MidlandsNorth Red RiverDelta South East Vietnam

Growth rate of Efficiency Change in

Vietnam

1985-1995 1996-2007 1985-2007-1.00

Highlands MekongDelta CentralCoast MidlandsNorth Red RiverDelta South East Vietnam

Growth rate of Technical Change in

Vietnam and Regions

Delta HighlandsCentral Red RiverDelta CentralCoast MidlandsNorth South East Vietnam

Performances of Efficiency, Technical and TFP

indices by region and Vietnam-(1985-2007)

EC TC TFP

Regression Results for Vietnam

Agricultural Labour (no/ha.) 0.4204* 0.0248 16.9

Regression Results by Regions Cntd…

Coef t-value Coef t-value Coef t-value

Explanatory Variable Northern Midlands Coef t-value Coef Red River t-value Coef South East t-value

Conclusions

Highlands and Red River Delta regions are exhibits positive agriculture TFP and technology change

growth rates While the efficiency growth rates are still under low performance

East, North Midlands, Central Coast regions are

having positive growth But it is not same as for

agricultural TFP growth rates

an increasing growth in Central Island, Mekong

Delta and South East regions However, the

improving growth rate is stagnant in the regions

Central Coast, North Midlands and Red River Delta

Conclusions Cntd …

and Red River Delta regions shows rapid increasing

TFP growth are positively impact on agricultural total factor productivity growth But the levels of growth

impacts on precipitation and temperature are vary between the regions

indicates that the casual factors agricultural land,

labour, livestock, machinery and temperature are

positively and statistically strongly significant impact on total productivity growth in Vietnam

Conclusions Cntd……

positively and statistically significant

impact on total productivity growth in all the respective regions Except

agriculture labour in Central Coast and South East

Thanks for your kind Attention