Viet Nam Country Report of energy

Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation in the Northeast Asia Region Viet Nam- Country Report 23-24 September-Beijing-China By: Dr.. • The Law includes 12 chapters, 48 articles

Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation

in the Northeast Asia Region

Viet Nam- Country Report

23-24 September-Beijing-China

By: Dr Pham Khanh Toan & Nguyen Minh Bao Institute of Energy

1 Introduction

• Viet Nam stretches along

the east coast of

Indochina over a length of

• Shares common borders

with the People’s Republic

of China (PRC) in the

north, and with Laos and

Cambodia in the west

 Population:

population census in 01 April 2009).

9.5 million with an average growth rate of 1.18% per year, reducing nearly 0.5% compared with

previous 10 year period (1989-1999)

 GDP:

Annual average GDP Growth Rate: 7.6% in

1990-2005, and 7.3% in 2005-2009.

Introduction

2 Recent Changes in Energy

Sector and Policies

Current Status and Recent Trends

in Energy Sector

Total Energy Use by Sector 1990-2007,(including Biomass Energy)

• Total energy consumption in 1990 was 16,760 KTOE and increased to

40,345 KTOE in 2007 with average growth rate of 5.3 percent per year

Current Status and Recent Trends

EVN 53.1%

Private 2.8%

JSC 14.6%

10.0%

HPPs 39.8%

Coal thermal 16.0%

Oil thermal 2.7%

Gas turbine 32.8%

Import 3.7%

Others 2.8%

Gas thermal 2.3%

Import Diesel IPP/BOT Tua bin khí Nhiệt điện dầu Nhiệt điện than Thuỷ điện Pmax

Gas turbine Oil thermal Coal thermal HPP

36410 31137

Power Gen.-GWh Growth Rate

12145 km 746/25862 MVA

8497 km 119/19094 MVA

3438 km 16/7500 MVA

Volume of transmission network as of 2009

Rate of rural electrification as of end of 2009

-100% districts have electricity from national grid or local system

- 97.6% communes (8880/9101 communes); and

- 95,1% rural households have electricity from grid (13.95/14.67 mill hh)

 National Energy Saving & Target

• In April 2006, the Prime Minister of Viet Nam signed Decision No 79/2006/QD-TTg approving the EE&C

program for the period 2006-2015

• The target of the program is to save 3 to 5 percent of

total national energy consumption over the period

2006-2010 and 5 to 8 percent in period 2011-2015

Viet Nam’s Energy Policy

 National Energy Efficient Use Policies

• In July 2010, the Law on Energy Conservation and Efficient Use

was passed by the National Assembly

• The Law includes 12 chapters, 48 articles to institutionalize

policies on national energy resources, energy security,

environment protection and meeting demand of socio-economic development.

• The Law specifies the responsibilities of sectors with high energy

saving potential such as industry, transport, service and

residential

• The Law stipulated that large energy-consuming industries and

buildings have to report on energy consumption and plans to

improve efficiency, and to designate internal energy managers responsible for energy-efficiency work

 Target Sectors for Promoting Energy Efficiency:

Three sectors account for about 95% of total final energy

consumption, with high potential for energy efficiency:

14,359 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 6.8% per year,

accounting for 27.8% of total energy consumption in 1990 and increased to 35.6% in 2007

to 8,671 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 11.3% per year

and electricity) has average growth rate of 16.3% per year

during 1990–2007

Viet Nam’s Energy Policy

 Main Measurements for Energy Efficiency in Target Sectors

a, Industrial Sector:

- Renewal and renovation of existing equipment and facilities.

- Selecting the suitable measures for energy use management

b, Transport Sector:

- Means of transportation must comply with the technical standards

- Improvement and promotion of using public transport system.

c, Residential and Commercial Sector:

- Energy efficient use in buildings, lighting systems and residential sectors.

- Introduction of energy-saving appliances, renewable energy in households and commercial buildings, along with management measurements.

Viet Nam’s Energy Policy

 National Policies in Nuclear Energy

• In January 2006, the Prime Minister approved “Sstrategy to

apply nuclear energy for peaceful purposes by 2020”

• In April 2008, the Institute of Energy prepared an

Investment Report on construction of nuclear power plants in Ninh Thuan province

• The Investment Report of the first nuclear power plant

project in Phuoc Dinh and Vinh Hai, Ninh Thuan province,

4000 MW, was approved by the National Assembly in

November 2009 At each site, two nuclear units with

capacity of 1000 MW each, operation anticipated in 2020

Viet Nam’s Energy Policy

 National Policies in Nuclear Energy

• In June 2010, the Prime Minister approved “Orientation

planning for nuclear energy development up to the year 2030”

• Three phases of NPP development:

- The first phase (by 2015): Approval of investment project, selecting sites and contractors, and training the human

resource; Preparing mechanisms, policies on for project

construction and management

- The next five year stage (by 2020), the first unit of the Ninh

Thuận Nuclear Power Plant 1 (1000MW) will be finished

and put into operation by 2020 The second plant will also

be built during this period

Viet Nam’s Energy Policy

 National Policies in Nuclear Energy

- The phase 3: 2020-2030, next nuclear power plants

will be built

• According to the development orientation, about eight

sites for power plants located in five provinces of Ninh Thuan, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Ha Tinh and Quang Ngai

- Up to 2030: Total NPP capacity will be 8,000 MW

by 2025 and 15,000 MW by 2030, accounting for

about 10 percent of the total capacity of power

system

2 Work Progress and Interim

Results of LEAP Paths

In EASS Project, LEAP was used as a tool for energy

demand projection, and development of alternative energy scenarios addressing climate change problems

This section will provide the progress and interim results of LEAP Paths including:

• Methodology and Data

• Energy Demand Structure

• Key Assumptions

• Interim results of LEAP Paths.

Methodology and Data

• Energy demand was constructed and projected for the sectors such

as industry, transport, agriculture, residential and commercial

sectors

• In each sector, energy consumption was broken down in to

sub-sectors and projected based on driving activities and energy

intensities

• Driving activities were chosen based on the development plans or

strategies of subsectors

• Energy intensities were selected based on the available data from

the researches and recent surveys

• Nuclear capacity scenarios were developed based on the programs

of the country

Refrigeration Air Conditioners Lighting

Energy Demand Structure

Energy Demand Structure

Heat

Electricity

Others

Energy Demand Structure

Transport

Passenger

Others

Road Railway

Car

Bus

Motorbike Train

Aviation Air plane Freight Road

Railway

Truck Train Maritime Vessel Waterway Boat

Energy Demand Structure

Key Assumptions

• GDP: Viet Nam’s GDP is projected to grow at an average annual

rate of 6.9%, 7.2% and 7.0% in the periods of 2005-2010,

2011-2020 and 2021-2030 respectively in the base case scenario

• Population Growth Assumption

• Urbanization rate: 44.5% in 2030

2020 2025 2030

Minimum Nuclear Scenario 1,000 4,000 6,000

BAU Nuclear Scenario 1,000 6,000 11,000

Maximum Nuclear Scenario 1,000 8,000 15,000

Nuclear Power Plant Development Scenarios Updated

Unit: MW

Key Assumptions

15,618

16,411

17,188

59,939

80,170

105,492

141,698 5.82

3,965

5,123

6,474

5,707

6,246

6,494

2,895

4,243

6,220

9,024

Interim Results

Transport: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors (KTOE)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 (05-30) AGR.% Passenger 3332 5145 8028 12525 19051 28973 9.0 Freight 3531 4870 6759 9382 12734 17284 6.6

Total 7169 10438 15375 22721 32891 47759 7.9

1,501 6.6

Total 7,169 10,438 15,375 22,721 32,891 47,759 7.9

Interim Results

Electricity Generation: Output by Fuels -BAU (KTOE)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Coal 769 1,762 3,620 6,323 9,241 14,927

Interim Results

Electricity Generation: Global Warming Potential

(Mil Tone CO2e)

164.2 Maximum Nuclear 21.9 32.3 48.7 75 95.4 144.3

189.0

4 Conclusion and Recommendation

Conclusions

As shown above, an interim result was achieved based on the updated data on energy, economics and main driving activities

• Energy demand of residential, industry, and transport

sectors was broken down in to sub-sectors and end-uses

indexes and driving activities referred from the

development strategies of sectors and sub-sectors

• GHG Mitigation Scenarios were developed based on the BAU, maximum and minimum scenarios on nuclear power development

As the first steps, we initially restructured the LEAP Dataset for

residential, industry and transport that each sector was divided in sub-sectors and end-uses Moreover, the GHG Mitigation Scenarios were also developed only on supply side based on BAU, Minimum and Maximum nuclear power development paths Therefore, these

is still room for “next steps” of AES Project, including:

• Development of alternative energy scenarios on the demand side

-including energy efficiency, fuels substitution, and demand-side

renewable energy to provide energy services and reduce GHG

emissions.

• Evaluation of the costs for CO2 emissions abatement through

different energy efficient policies and measures

Recommendation

Thank you very much