Analysis of factors influencing the demand for distance education in Vietnam

The evaluation of factors affecting demand for distance education, measurement of the impact of each factor, and development of demand function for distance training, are necessary in or

I INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH TOPIC

1 Rationales

According to the Statistical Yearbook of the General Statistics Office

published in 2011, in our country the percentage of trained workers is 16.3%

In recent years, the training needs have not been met despite the

increasing number of newly established colleges and universities Traditional

training modes in campus and closed classes alone seem difficult to satisfy

those needs

By 2012, throughout the country, 21 institutions have registered to

provide distance education, among which 17 received the assignment to train

40,400 students and 15 institutitons recruited totally 161,047 students in 2012

In 2009 there were 232,781 enrolled students and 159,947 graduates

Under the project "Development of Distance education in the period 2005

- 2010", the Government set an objective to have 300,000 students of distance

education by 2010 and 500,000 students by 2020

The development of distance education has been driven by the

educational philosophy that standardized and ready-made teaching and learning

materials can be used to achieve economies of scale in education Therefore,

distance training refers to the use of training technology for the masses, with the

relatively higher initial investment costs compared to those of direct training

modes With currently low enrollment of students, the training costs per student

of distance education are still high, and thus the efficiency of distance training

is still low

Despite the diversity of studies of distance education in our country and

others in the region they mainly focus on studying training technologies, and

exchanging experience in distance education The evaluation of factors

affecting demand for distance education, measurement of the impact of each

factor, and development of demand function for distance training, are necessary

in order to provide recommendations for developing distance education

All the above suggest the selection of research subject: "An analysis of factors affecting demands for distance education in Viet Nam"

2 Research Objectives

+ To assess the real situation of distance education in Viet Nam from

1994 to present

+ To assess factors affecting demands for distance education in Vietnam + To propose recommendations for developing forms of distance education in Vietnam

Therefore, the research needs to answer the question: What factors affect demands for distance education in Vietnam?

3 Subject and scope of research

The research mainly focuses on analyzing factors affecting demands for distance education at undergraduate level in Vietnam, which has been implemented since 1994

4 Research Methodology

The research uses econometric estimation through the collection of primary data, and use of logistic dualistic model The coefficients of the regression equation can be used to estimate the elasticities (odds ratio) for each independent variable in the model Together with dualistic logistic regression method, the research also uses the method of dialectical materialism, historical

materialism, comparison and analysis

5 Contributions of the research

- In terms of scientific and research development: (i) Identify and assess factors affecting demands for distance education and quantify the impact of each factor, (ii) Formulate the function of demands for distance education in Viet Nam

- In terms of practice: Based on factors that influence demands for distance education and the relationship between them, suggestions are proposed

to improve policies for distance education development in Viet Nam's real

situation

6 Structure of the thesis

Apart from the introduction, conclusion, list of the author's works,

references and appendices, the thesis includes the following chapters:

Chapter 1: Theoretical bases and literature review

Chapter 2: Real situation of distance education in Vietnam

Chapter 3: Results of experiment in using a function to estimate demands

for distance education in Vietnam

Chapter 4: Application of research findings in making policies for

distance education in Vietnam

II CONTENTS OF THE THESIS CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BASES AND LITERATURE REVIEW

1.1 Theoretical bases for estimation and forecast of demands for distance

education

+ Through analysis of distance education and its features, the thesis takes

the concept that open and distance education are derived from distance

correspondence education in the industrial age Distance education systems,

which still maintained its role to meet social needs in the post-industrial era,

enabled people's self-improvement and met individual needs In addition, the

technological development in the new era increased the demand for regular

occupational training; and the change in orientation towards continuous training

has increased the openness of the concept of lifelong learning for everyone The

advancement of information and communication technologies has increased the

interactiveness of distance education However, that many countries focus on

the use of sophisticated technologies could reduce the number of people getting

access to education The adoption of technology and design of appropriate

learning systems play an important role in determining the openess of distance

education systems Theoretically, Open and Distance education are the systems aiming at overcoming the difficulties in distance, both temporary and regular, economic factors, personal limits, with the ideal of offering learning opportunities to all people

+ The thesis summarizes factors that impact distance education including (i) Tuition fees, (ii) Applicability of facilities in training, (iii) Trust of people and labour market in the quality of training, (iv) Individuals' psychology, (v) Perspectives on employment, (vi) Perspectives on initial direct labour market, (vii) Economic factors to learners, (viii) Perspectives on using distance education services, (ix) Previous topics related to learning and working, (x) Important people's influence on citizens' orientation towards distance education, (xi) Preferential policies of the Government for distance education, (xii) Pressure of family and society on people who intend to follow distance education, (xiii) Labourers' income, (xiv) People's tastes for distance education, (xv) Costs of services related to distance education, (xvi) Population, and (xvii) People's expectations for distance education

+ The thesis raises the research process to study the demand for distance education including the following steps: (i) Observe and measure, (ii) Develop

a model, (iii) Test the model

+ The thesis summarizes methods estimating demands for distance education, including (i) Estimating demands for distance education by simple elasticity, (ii) Estimating demands for distance education by econometrics

1.2 Summary of related studies

The increase in demand for education in late twentieth century and early twenty-first century is seen as a phenomenon The number of people attending colleges has increased dramatically both in developed and developing countries;

at the same time the education system has also been expanding rapidly to meet the increase in demand (OECD, 1978a) One of the first attempts to assess and verify major impacts on individual demands for higher education was made by

Robbins Committee (UK) Among these impacts, Robbins Committee assessed

important factors affecting demand for education including: family background,

job and economic prospects associated with different levels of education, and

state institutions

Later studies on factors affecting demands for educaion in general divide

these factors into four main categories: society/ family, psychological/ personal,

economic/ choice, structure/ institution (OECD, 1978b)

Among the diversed social factors influencing demands for eduction,

family can be considered the most important It is believed that families with

high social status can create a good environment that encourages their children

to learn better (OECD, 1978b) Studies on the effects of family variables on the

demand of higher education generally and distance education particularly in a

number of countries have repeated an intimate relationship between a family's

status and its members' taking higher education, being proven by studies of

Guppy and Pendakur (1989) Meanwhile , in the UK, the number of high school

graduates who enroll in universities of all types of training, including distance

education, has increased in all social groups; families of high social status

maintain better advantages in the race to enter universities and colleges than

lower class families (Halsey, 1993)

The influence of social variables on individual needs for training is also a

matter of survey Individuals such as teachers and occupational consultants,

labourer - using agencies and enterprises all have a strong impact on demands

for education in general and distance education in particular In 1970 Mc

Creath realized that, for high school students and those who already had their

jobs, occupational consultants offered less advice on higher education than their

family does

According to theory of human capacity, learners are viewed as economic

individual entities who have demands for distance education if the benefits they

expect to gain are greater than the costs, both physical and mental, incurring

from their study According to research findings of Handa and Scolik (1975), many learners support this theory of human capacity and its explanation of demands for education in general and distance education in particular

Structures and institutions (topics related to learning and training previously), are found to be closely related to orientation of going to university According to Meyer (1970), these variables include: the university's prestige, the training organizations previously enrolled by the learner, mechanism to sort students based on their abilities and transitional points in the education and training system, as pointed out in the study of Yuchtman and Samuel (1975) and previous learning, training programs (Borus and Carpenter, 1984)

In the study "Estimating the Demand for Higher education in the United States, 1965-1995" Cambell and Siegel (1967) could measure the elasticity of income and tuition fee by assessing the traditional model that displays enrollment rate in its relation to two available economic variables, income and tuition fee

In summary, previous studies have evaluated and assessed factors affecting the demand for higher education, such as: (i) Individual psychology, (ii) Perspectives on employment, (iii) Perspectives on initial direct labour market, (iv) Economic factors (v) Perspectives on using services, (vi) Topics related to previous learning and working, (vii) Influence of other important people, (viii) Tuition fee

1.3 Distance education experience in Southeast Asian and regional countries

Regarding distance education experience in Southeast Asian countries and regional countries, the thesis introduces distance education experience in: (i) Broadcasting University of China, (ii) Virtual University of Pakistan, (iii) Open University Thammathirat Sukhothai, Thailand Based on studying distance education experience of other countries, the thesis summarizes

preferential policies for developing distance education, and the lessons of

Southeast Asian and regional countries

CHAPTER 2: REAL SITUATION OF DISTANCE EDUCATION IN

VIETNAM

2.1 Real situation of distance education in Vietnam

The thesis analyzes and assesses the situation of distance education in

Viet Nam from 1994 to present in the following aspects: (i) Increased scale of

distance education network in the country, (ii) Organization of distance

education, (iii) International cooperation in distance education

2.2 Weaknesses and limitations

First, regarding training technology: So far, learning materials for

distance education students in Viet Nam are mainly printed materials together

with some CD - ROMs, audio tapes and video tapes Compared with the

standard of some regional and international countries, most of the materials

compiled by distance education centres are not really suitable with distance

education technology Distance education centres have not gathered good

teachers, scientists, experts in various fields to design curriculum, compile

materials to be shared by several subjects, especially textbooks, materials for

natural sciences and engineering - technology subjects, build "virtual"

classrooms, "virtual" experiments and practices, which leads to too much time

of face-to-face studying Radios and televisions of the central, local and other

media organizations used by distance education students as learning support

means have proved neither significant nor effective in the past years

Second, regarding investment in facilities for distance education:

inadequate initial investment has been reserved for distance education

technologies, from equipment to textbooks, learning materials for distance

education students

Third, regarding the organization and management of distance education: Some distance education centres and local distance education agent centres have neither strong, appropriate organization, nor sound procedures and management of distance education Local distance education agent centres are mostly under concurrent management of officials from Education and Training Departments, not of specialized apparatus, and the rent venues are unstable Fourth, the testing and assessing process is, sometimes somewhere, not serious and objective enough In the current conditions, with inadequate facilities, and underdeveloped training technology, candidate selection method, tests and graduation examinations are mainly developed in written forms, not meeting requirements of objective testing methods

Fifth, regarding professional and pedagogical training in distance education for management staff and teachers: Currently distance education centres in our country mainly use full-time university teachers, who receive no professional and pedagogical training for distance education The management staff for distance education, who receive almost no specialized training, are mostly experienced in managing other forms of education like full-time or in-service ones; therefore, there are still limitations in the consultancy, orientation and management of distance education learners

2.3 Causes of weaknesses and limitations

Distance education centres have not focused on building audio - video materials, electronic materials, and science - technology devices that can deliver distance education programs to learners Currently, learning materials are mainly textbooks, lectures printed and provided to learners by teachers, while the supply of supplementary materials for learners to do self-study prior to explanation of each subject, is still limited

- Host institutions of distance education programs in local areas are not fully equipped with learning materials, support facilities, especially practical experiments for distance education students before lecturers provide their instructions

- The training and cultivation of management staff and teachers in

expertise, professional and pedagogical methods of distance education,

particularly the distance teaching - learning by means of information and

communication technologies has not been given adequate attention, nor

appropriate training before class

- Ready-made textbooks and learning materials are printed with similar

contents; there is lack of necessary cooperation among distance education

centres (especially the sharing of studying resources, and development of

training technology)

- Most students cannot afford equipments for self-study at home and have

no habits and appropriate methods of self-study

- The management from the central to grassroots level is still inadequate

There is still lack of sound legal documents for the management and

administration of distance education activities

- Distance education in our country has not received appropriate

investment from different sources, such as the State Budget from local and

central governments and other funding sources

2.4 Favorable conditions for distance education in Viet Nam

Distance education in our country today enjoys favorable conditions

with: (i) the Government’s policy of diversifying forms of training at the

transition to the renovation time, (ii) The creation and introduction of new

technologies from overseas into Viet Nam, creating many new jobs which

encourage the increasing diversity of career - oriented demands for education,

accounting for a significant part of the general demand for education in

Vietnam, (iii) Gender equality policies of the government that have come to

life, together with the gradual liberation that allows Vietnamese women's

participation in socio-economic areas, have also played an important part in the

increase of training demand generally, and distance education particularly in

late twentieth century and early twenty-first century, (iv) The increase in

demand for education generally and distance education particularly in Viet Nam nowadays owes much to the success of Government's Population Strategies, (v) Since 1986, Vietnam has been in the process of "Renovation and integration", developing the country, having relatively stable political security; wars have been pushed back, so the number of army-recruited youngsters has decreased significantly, (vi) Economic factors show a significant impact on demand for distance education as there are differences in incomes of college graduates and

of untrained people in the labor market

CHAPTER 3: RESULTS OF EXPERIMENT IN USING A FUNCTION

TO ESTIMATE DEMANDS FOR DISTANCE EDUCATION IN

VIETNAM

3.1 Research Methodology and Data

The study uses both qualitative method and quantitative method, collecting primary data for quantitative analysis, because: (i) qualitative research method can complement quantitative method by identifying factors affecting demand for distance education, (ii) Quantitative method can support qualitative method by detecting factors affecting demand for distance education with a larger sample, or by recognizing a team appropriate for depth research, (iii) Qualitative research helps explain the relationships between the factors affecting distance training demand that are detected by quantitative research

3.1.1 Research Methodology

3.1.1.1 Qualitative Research Method Qualitative research method collects data in order to describe and analyze Vietnamese people's characteristics that affect the demand for distance education In the study, the author collects opinions of several different groups, including (i) Experts in distance education from Ha Noi, Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City, with prepared questions in the form of in-depth interviews and

semi-structured interviews; (ii) distance education students and workers in Hai

Phong, Nghe An, Can Tho, through focus group discussions after their classes

3.1.1.2 Quantitative Research Methods

a Selection of model for application

For regression models where dependent variables are qualitative variables

quantified according to uncontinuously selected values, smallest square method,

a method commonly used in econometrics and production modeling, proves not

suitable Therefore, nonlinear logistic models should be used to quantify

variables such as satisfaction, degree of agreement

In economics, the relationship between demand for distance education and

factors affecting it can be shown in the following function:

Yi = α + β Xi + εi

In which, Yi represents the demand for distance education, and X is a vector

showing explanatory variables Assessing the impact of socio - economic factors

on the demand for undergraduate and graduate education of residents in the

Republic of Cyprus in 1998, a study used logistics model to perform empirical

studies of a model of demands for education for undergraduate and graduate

education: Yi = α + β Xi + εi

In which Y is the unit of choice while vector X represents variables

explaining the selection of interviewed individual i

b Building logistic models

In this study, interviewees choose one of the two options: have intention

to follow distance education, or have no intention of following distance

education Therefore, binary logistic model is used where the dependent

variable receives one of the two values: either 0 (for respondents who state their

intention to enroll for distance education), or 1 (for respondents who have no

intention to enroll for distance education) The parameters of the model will

indicate the effects of independent variables on the probability of people

confirming their intention to follow distance education Binary logistic model for various independent variables can be described as follows:

Logit [P(Yi = 1)] = Log[P(Yi = 1)] / 1- Log[P(Yi = 1)] = b0 + bX’i = f(X’i)

In which:

- X i is the vector of independent variables representing interviewers

- Y: The responses of interviewees, in which: (i) Y = 1 when respondents show their "intention to follow distance education", (ii) Y = 0 when respondents show "no intention to follow distance education"

- P: Probability of interviewees' responses with Y = 1

- I: The ordinal number of a sample interviewed

- b0: Constant of the model

- b: Vector of parameters corresponding to explanatory variables

To identify and assess factors affecting demand for distance education, the study uses designed and constructed a questionnaire The questionnaire was constructed based on questionnaires of previous studies, which had been assessed and had results published in international journals This study has constructed, developed, supplemented the content of the questionnaire based on the results of qualitative research, in such a way that matches the distance education environment in Vietnam The constructed questionnaire, approved by the supervisor, was conducted on a trial basis at a number of distance education centres in Hanoi and neighboring provinces such as Bac Ninh, Hai Phong The data from the pilot survey, were then synthesized, analyzed on the Statistical Software Package for the Social Sciences - SPSS, and then the questionnaire received content and technical adjustments Next, the questionnaire was completed after the pilot survey, and conducted extensively on a large scale

3.1.2 Collection of data

The research uses a non-probability sampling method according to subjective evaluation combined with the convenience of survey The questionnaire was sent to the following subjects: (i) Workers who have finished

high school and a number of college - graduated employees who need retraining

from offices, organizations, enterprises, (ii) 12-grade part-time students

The survey process through questionnaires was conducted in two steps:

(i) Lecturers came to local distance education centres to help students answer

the questionnaire, while staff at local continuous education centres guided

12-grade part-time students to answer the questionnaire, (ii) Distance education

students, who had been instructed by lecturers, then undertook the survey their

in offices and enterprises, guiding other employees to answer the questionnaire

During the survey, these students could regularly contact with lecturers for

instruction and solutions to arising problems

Surveyed people received the questionnaire from lecturers and distance

education learners, as well as instructions how to answer them with their own

objective, truthful viewpoint The number of questionnaires used for the survey

were made sure to represent: (i) different regions in the country, (ii) rural and

urban residential areas, (iii) plains, mountainous areas, islands (iv) different areas of

the country Sample sized were at least 40 at each place of 25 provinces and cities

nationwide where the survey was conducted The total surveyed and interviewed

people were 2,533 The questionnaires were distributed from May to Decemeber

2011 With detailed instruction and explanation of officers rich in experience in

distance education, who came to local areas during the data collection process, the

respondents showed relatively high cooperation and responsibilities in completing

the questionnaire Data collected from the questionnaire were made sure to match

research content Questionnaires were distributed and collected; raw data were

editted, cleaned; variables named and labeled; variable values labeled; variables

formatted; the size and type of each variable determined; each questionnaire

numbered; statistical software SPSS 16.0 was used for data input Each data line

represents the response from a questionnaire

3.1.3 Variables measurement

In the questionnaire, respondents are required to point out whether or not

they intend to follow distance education, raise their own views on distance

education, and other important personal information The questionnaire also includes 45 questions about the potential impacts of educational and occupational orientation, and 10 other questions related to personal information

of respondents Specifically, the questionnaire asks the respondents to select

one point of the 5-score scale, in which score 1: Strongly disagree, score 2: Disagree, score 3: Normal, score 4: Agree, score 5: Strongly agree Alternatives

cover a few sources that can affect educational and occupational plans of respondents

3.1.4 Methods of data analysis

Factors are analyzed and synthesized in order to classify variables with potential influence on distance education orientation Factor analysis method is

a major composition technical method Factor groups are formed, and used as explanatory variables in logistic regression analysis, in which respondents' intention of learning works as independent variables

In this regression model, predictable values of dependent variables can be understood as the probability that an individual will choose an option, and this person's traits can be measured by the values of independent variables Regression model is used to investigate the relationship between the scores of a respondent in identified issues, and his/ her characteristics, and intention of taking distance education Therefore , the model helps measure the effects of factors and characteristics of personal demand for distance education

3.2 Research results

3.2.1 Results of qualitative research

Findings on factors affecting the demand for distance education include experts’ opinions and results of focus group discussions by distance learners and workers from three regions of (i) the North, (ii) the Center, and (iii) the South of the country The findings are rather focused and similar among the three regions Specifically, 100% of experts and groups of learners and workers agree with the synthesized findings, i.e besides the 8 factors having impacts on the general

demand for undergraduate education, which were researched and approved by

previous authors, there are 4 factors that affect the demand for distance education

in Việt Nam to be added: (i) Government policies to support distance education,

(ii) Applicability of facilities in distance education, (iii)Trust in the quality of

distance education by the learners and labor market, and (iv) Pressure on

education by families and the society as a whole

3.2.2 Results of quantitative research

3.2.2.1 Data encoding

Dependent variables: Possibility to take distance education is identified

on the basis of the respondents’ answers in the questionnaire This variable is

valued as “1” if a respondent has an intention to pursuit distance education and

as “0” if a respondent has no intention to pursuit it

Independent variables: Factors affecting the orientation to take distance

education of the respondents

3.2.2.2 Findings from analysis of factors affecting the demand for distance

education

A high rate of 60,17% (1,524/ 2,533) of the respondents have an

intention to pursuit distance education This figure is considered as exceeding

the forecast of the interviewed workers who might have this intention A major

cause would be the convenience and suitability of distance education in today’s

time for adults and part-time high school students Respondents with and

without intention to take distance education answers all questions about the

resources that affect their orientation towards distance education In Table 1,

perspectives on each factor show their coverage through impact coefficient

The three factors appear in 11 out of 45 original perspectives Some

perspectives expell several factors due to their low coverage (not significant

impact coefficient) The factors are formed through the classification of original

variables into classes which represent their value in Table 1

Table 1 Variables with impact on each factor and their impact coefficient

Impact coefici ent Specialization of the previous education/work influences

my plan to take a distance education program

0.901 Factor 1:

Topics related

to previous education and work

The subjects learnt and employment history influence my plan to take a distance education program

0.901

Distance education means self-study with ready-made materials and lecturers’ instruction, thus is suitable to everyone in the society

0.717

Lecturer’s explanation and instruction are very important,

so they should be highly qualified

0.737

A high light of distance education is that it uses various supporting tools such as broadcasting, television, internet,

etc

0.733

Distance education seeks a different mode for people to

pursuit education and benefit from education

0.787

With materials and supporting tools, distance learners can study at any time and any place, which is very convenient

for many people

0.816

Factor 2:

Applicability

of facilities in distance education

With the ready made materials, distance learners can

manage their study according to their specific conditions

0.806

I believe distance education meets requirments in knowledge and skill provision in the designed curriculum

0.809

Factor 3:

Trust in the quality of distance education by the public and labor market

I pursuit distance education rather for further equipping

myself with working skills than for a diploma

0.782

The first factor: Both perspectives in the first factor relate to the impact of

the subjects and education programs which the respondents previously took,

such as subjects learnt in high schools, vocational schools or colleges The

current job and its specialization also have special impact on the orientation and

plan for distance education of the workers

The second factor: Applicability of facilities in distance education

includes the uses and combination of different tools in one education program

There are five generations of technology existing in distance education and a

distance education program requires them all: (i) Materials, including printed

materials, media materials, electronic materials and online materials, (ii)

Learner supports, including direct supports, online supports, and supports

through telephone, fax, broadcasting and television, (iii) Assessment, including

supervision and self-assessment in the forms of direct and distant assessment

The third factor: This factor shows the respondent’s perspective on the

trust in the quality of current distance education and partially the workers’

viewpoint of employers’ perspective

3.2.2.3 Results of analysis of variance for multiple factors

To better identify the level of demand for distance education being

affected by different factors it is necessary to conduct an analysis of variance

for multiple factors Thus, Table 2 shows that the first factor, i.e Topics related

to previous education and work (F1) does have effect on the possibility of taking

distance education (probability significance of the factor is 0.001) Similarly,

the second factor, i.e Applicability of facilities in distance education (F2) poses

similar influence on the possibility of taking distance education with significance

of 0.03 The third factor of Trust in the quality of distance education by the public

with significance of 0.009 Other factors with significance higher than 0.05 are

eliminated

Table 2 Standard regression coefficient, standard error and independent

variables of Wald Statistics

Work-related topics (F1) - 289 087 11.113 1 001 749 Facilities in distance education

Quality of distance education

Constant -1.407 090 246.848 1 000 245

3.2.2.4 Results of logistics regression analysis Directions of education as a function of factors are created from the learners’ basic characteristics The three above mentioned factors are derived from analysis and results of their checking, being used as independent variables

in the model of logistics regression, whereby people’s orientation towards distance education is the binary dependent variable, showing the respondents’ intention The analysis aims at identifying the factors and features having significant influence on the orientation towards distance education The three independent variables used in this regresssion model have significant influence

on the binary dependent variable, while the rest variables having no significant influence on the binary dependent variables are eliminated The coefficient of the binary logistics regression model should be understood as the change of the logarit elasticity of the binary dependent variable in relevance to each increasing point of the independent variable

According to these findings, when the bases of statements 1 & 2 of the

first factor “Topics related to previous education and work” as incentive to

distance education increase by 1 point, the log elasticity of orientation toward distance education decreases by 0.289 Therefore, it can be said that people pursue distance education due to the practical requirements of work, their needs

in professional, knowledge and skill training for the hope about a good job,

which is stable and suitable with the labor market at present and in the future In

other words, people pursue distance education to get trained in professional and

working skills appropriate to the current labor market Therefore, distance education

should be based on the needs of current labor market when designing curricula to

meet the needs of distant learners

The results of synthesis and analysis of respondents’ perspectives through

their choice of different options show that: (i) The supply of facilities for

distance education in our country for learners to combine self-study with

explanation by lecturers is rather limited, insufficient and not varied enough to

meet different needs of the learners, (ii) People’s ability to self study when

taking distance education is not high enough to push them overcome difficulties

of study This is a major limitation of the distant learners in Vietnam to make

distance education really to its meaning of learning anywhere at any time The

result of regression analysis shows that the coefficient of elasticity of the

second factor “Applicability of facilities in distance education ” takes a negative

value (- 0,261), which means that the supply of facilities for distance education

in our country is still limited In other words, if such ability to supply facilities

for distance education as the current one increases by 1 point, people’s

orientation toward distance education will decrease by 0.261 point Thus,

distance education should present its advantages over the traditional forms of

education to attract and direct more people toward distance education

The table that synthesizes survey data of perspectives under the third factor

and the results of logarit analysis reveal that the log elasticity of the orientation

toward taking distance education will increase by 0.225 at each increasing point of

the third factor “Trust in the quality of distance education by the public and labor

market” This means that the better the quality of distance education, the higher the

trust of employers and society and the higher the number of people pursuing

distance education Quality of education in general and of distance education in particular is of the top attention by the public as well as employers

Basing on the findings and results of analysis, the probability of the number of Vietnamese people taking distance education can be calculated by the following formula:

1/(1+e-z) with: z = (- 1.407) + (-0.289)F1 + (- 0.261)F2 + (0.225)F3

In which F1: Topics related to previous education and work

When checking the results of regression analysis, it can be seen that most

of coefficients of elasticity have accuracy and confidence with the significance between 1% and 5% Thus, it can be said that the use of this model brings accurate forecast about the orientation toward distance education of the 2,533 surveyed people

3.3 Links between the research results with those of previous studies

3.3.1 Regarding Topics related to previous education and work

Vietnamese people are motivated and oriented towards distance education with the needs of being trained in professional practice as well as with the expectation to win new job of more stable income after graduation The research results show that if distance education takes “Topics related to previous education and work” as motivator for people to follow distance education and makes it increase by 1 point, the demand for distance education will decrease by 0.289, which implies that education managers should encourage and motivate as well as promote and enable the accessibility to distance education For example, they can launch professional and specialized curricula to meet the current needs of the labor market, not necessarily the curricula and specializations that continue the previously learnt knowledge and skills Moreover, there should be some orientation