Sustainable livelihoods in coastal red river delta in the context of climate change a case study in nam dinh province

Integrating Sustainable Livelihoods Framework SLA with Climate Change, it is realized that climate change is a key factor causing vulnerability of livelihoods, because climate change doe

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INTRODUCTION

1 Relevance of the study

Sustainable livelihoods has been a topic of interest in the debate on development,

poverty reduction, and environmental management in both theoretical and practical

perspectives Integrating Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLA) with Climate

Change, it is realized that climate change is a key factor causing vulnerability of

livelihoods, because climate change does impact livelihood assets and that the

impacted livelihood assets will affect livelihood strategies which in turn will affect

the livelihood outcomes In the context that climate change is increasingly complex in

the future, livelihoods should be not only sustainable, but also adaptive in order to

reduce vulnerability caused by climate change Therefore, integrating sustainable

livelihoods framework with climate change will help build sustainable and adaptive

livelihoods in the context of climate change

The threats of climate change, such as sea level rise, storm, flooding, and saltwater

intrusion are really serious for Vietnam because it is a country with a long coastline

and two low-lying deltas located near the sea Coastal area in the Red River Delta,

which includes 4 provinces namely Hai Phong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, and Ninh Binh,

is an area with a high population density and heavy dependence on the climate and

water resource of agriculture and fisheries Main livelihoods of coastal communities

in the Red River Delta are composed of agricultural production (rice cultivation,

livestock breeding and salt production) and fisheries (fishing and aquaculturing) that

are increasingly threatened by climate change due to high dependence on the natural

resources sensitive to climate change Therefore, it is an urgent need to build

sustainable and adaptive livelihoods in the context of climate change for coastal area

in Vietnam in general and coastal Red River Delta in particular

2 Literature review

Studies about livelihoods at household level in the context of climate change have

been reviewed from 3 aspects: (i) impacts of climate change on coastal area in the

world and in Vietnam; (ii) vulnerability and adaptation practices of households to the

impact of climate change on their livelihoods in the world and in Vietnam, and (iii)

household livelihoods in the context of climate change in coastal Red River Delta in

Vietnam The review indicates the following main findings:

- About the content of studies:

• Current status of household livelihoods has not been comprehensively

analysed using Sustainable Livelihoods Framework approach (SLA);

• Vulnerability to the impact of climate change of different groups of

household livelihoods has not been analyzed in details: impacts on

livelihood assets, livelihoods strategies, and livelihood outcomes

• Livelihoods adaptation to climate change at household level has not been

evaluated whether it is passive adaptation or active adaptation

• Sustainability and adaptability to the impact of climate change of

livelihoods in coastal area are not comprehensively analysed

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• For coastal Red River Delta in general and Nam Dinh province in particular, some issues such as current status of household livelihoods, vulnerability of household livelihoods and household’s adaptation practices

to the impact of climate change, livelihoods support of the government, sustainability and adaptability of livelihoods have not been addressed in a comprehensive manner in order to provide recommendations on sustainable and adaptive livelihoods for households in the context of climate change

- About theoretical framework:

• Most studies used the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLA) approach

to analyze household livelihoods in the context of climate change Very few studies integrated sustainable livelihoods framework with climate change to analyze vulnerability of household livelihoods

• The sustainability and adaptability of livelihoods have not been analyzed in details in terms of economic, social, environmental, and institutional sustainability and adaptability to the impact of climate change

- About methodology:

• No quantitative studies have been done to show the vulnerability of the different livelihood groups to the impact of climate change

• Multi-Criteria Analysis method has not been applied to analyze the sustainability and adaptability of livelihoods

The thesis “Sustainable Livelihoods in Coastal Red River Delta in the context of

Climate Change: A case study in Nam Dinh province is expected to fill the gaps in

the previous studies

3 Research objective and question

3.1 Research objective

The overall objective of the thesis is to propose sustainable and adaptive livelihoods for coastal households in Nam Dinh province in line with local capacity and policy direction of the government

The specific objectives of the thesis include:

(i) Analyse current status of livelihoods at household level in coastal Red River Delta,

(ii) Identify some main impacts of climate change on coastal Red River Delta, (iii) Analyse household’s perception about vulnerability to climate change of different livelihood groups through a case study in Nam Dinh,

(iv) Assess household capacity to adapt to impact of climate change on their livelihoods through a case study in Nam Dinh,

(v) Identify supporting policies of the government to help households in coastal districts of Nam Dinh province to adapt effectively to climate change impacts,

(vi) Propose sustainable and adaptive livelihoods for households in coastal districts of Nam Dinh province and some policy implications for coastal Red River Delta in Vietnam

3.2 Research questions

In order to achieve six specific research objectives mentioned above, the thesis

focuses to answer the following six research questions:

(i) What are livelihoods assets, livelihoods strategies, and livelihoods

outcomes of households in the Red River Delta?

(ii) What are the main impacts of climate change on coastal area in the Red

River Delta?

(iii) How do households in coastal districts of Nam Dinh province perceive

vulnerability to the impact of climate change on their livelihoods?

Specifically: How does climate change affect livelihood assets? How do

impacted livelihood assets affect livelihood strategies? and How do

impacted livelihoods strategies affect livelihoods outcomes?

(iv) How do households in coastal districts of Nam Dinh province adapt to

risks associated with impacts of climate change on their livelihoods?

(v) What are government policies to support households in coastal districts of

Nam Dinh province to adapt to climate change?

(vi) What are sustainable and adaptive livelihoods for households in coastal

districts of Nam Dinh province? What policy implications can be drawn

for the coastal provinces of Red River Delta?

4 Object and scope of the research

4.1 Object of the research

Object of the thesis is household livelihoods in coastal communities in the context of

climate change, including such issues as livelihood assets, livelihoods strategies,

livelihood outcomes, vulnerability of household livelihoods and adaptation practices

to the impact of climate change on their livelihoods, and government policies on

climate change adaptation

4.2 Scope of the research

4.2.1 From geographical aspect

• Coastal Red River Delta, which consists of 4 provinces/cities: Hai Phong,

Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, and Ninh Binh, is the context of the study

• A household survey conducted by the author was carried out in three coastal

districts of Nam Dinh Province as a case study

4.2.2 From timeline aspect

• Secondary data used for the analysis and assessment of household

livelihoods in coastal Red River Delta was collected for the period from

2000 to 2010

• Primary data was collected in 2012 to analyze the household livelihoods in

coastal districts of Nam Dinh province in the context of climate change

4.2.3 From content aspect

• Climate change: is represented by 5 main variables, including drought,

storm, increased temperature, sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion

• Coastal livelihoods in the context of climate change: are represented by 2

groups: agriculture and fisheries since these livelihoods are highly dependent on natural resources sensitive to the impacts of climate change

• Sustainable Livelihoods Framework mentions five components: (i)

livelihood assets, (ii) livelihood strategies, (iii) livelihood outcomes, (iv) institutions and policies at different levels, and (v) external context

• Sustainability of livelihoods is evaluated in terms of four aspects: economic,

social, environmental, and institutional sustainability

• Vulnerability of household livelihoods to the impacts of climate change: is

analyzed as follows: climate change affect livelihood assets and that the impacted livelihood assets will affect livelihood strategies which in turn will affect the livelihood outcomes

• Household capacity to adapt to climate change impact: is assessed through

adjustments on their livelihoods and divided into two levels of adaptation: (i) active adaptation and passive adaptation

5 Structure of the thesis

In addition to the introduction, conclusion, table of contents, list of acronyms, list of tables, list of figures, list of references and appendix, the thesis is structured into 4 chapters as follows:

Chapter 1: Theoretical framework on sustainable livelihoods in coastal area in the context of coastal climate change

Chapter 2: Research methodology

Chapter 3: Household livelihoods in Coastal Red River Delta in the context of climate change: A case study in Nam Dinh province

Chapter 4: Policy implications

6 New contributions of the thesis

The thesis has new contributions to the topic of climate change and coastal livelihoods from both theoretical and practical perspectives:

From a theoretical perspective:

• Previous studies mostly used the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLA) approach to analyze household livelihoods in the context of climate change This thesis integrates the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework with Climate Change to analyze vulnerability of household livelihoods to the impact of climate change in coastal areas and indicates that climate change does impact livelihood assets and that the impacted livelihood assets will affect livelihood strategies which in turn will affect the livelihood outcomes

• This thesis shows that, in the context of climate change, livelihoods should be not only sustainable, but also adaptive in order to reduce vulnerability caused

by climate change In addition, this thesis uses a Multi-Criteria Analysis method to propose criteria for evaluating economic, social, environmental, and institutional sustainability and adaptability of the livelihoods in the context of climate change

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From a practical perspective:

Results from a survey of 286 households in three coastal districts in Nam Dinh

province indicate the following main findings:

• Household awareness on vulnerability to the impact of climate change of

different livelihood groups are shown as follows:

- Storm, drought, and saltwater intrusion have positive effects on natural capital

(cultivation land, aquaculture land, and salt production land) and physical

capital (road and irrigation systems) These are livelihood assets that are very

sensitive to climate change In addition, storm, drought, and increased

temperature have positive effects on human capital (health) Financial capital

(access to bank loans) and social capital (access to information) is less affected by

climate change

- The impacted livelihood assets (cultivation land, livestock breeding facilities,

fishing facilities, aquaculture land, and salt production land) have positive

effects on respective livelihood strategies (rice cultivation, livestock breeding,

fishing, aquaculture practices and salt production) In addition, physical capital

(irrigation system) has positive effect on rice cultivation; social capital (access

to information) has positive effect on fishing; financial capital (access to bank

loans) has positive effect on livestock breeding, fishing and aquaculturing

- The impacted livelihoods strategies and livelihoods outcomes have a positive

relationship The more livelihoods strategies are affected by climate change, the

more livelihoods outcomes are affected

• Households in three coastal districts of Nam Dinh province are implementing

passive adaptation activities on their livelihoods rather than active adaptation

activities to counter the impact of climate change

• In order to help households move from passive adaptation to active adaptation, it

is necessary for the government to support households to improve their

livelihood assets, especially natural and physical capital and to enhance

institutions and policies on climate change adaptation at national and local levels

• Using a Multi-Criteria Analysis and scoring methods, five main livelihoods in

three coastal districts in Nam Dinh province in the context of climate change

are prioritized in the following order: aquaculturing, livestock breeding, rice

cultivation, salt cultivation, and fishing New livelihoods that would be feasible

in the context of climate change for these districts are eco-tourism and

traditional handcrafts

CHAPTER 1 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ON SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS FOR

COASTAL AREA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

1.1 Sustainable livelihoods

1.1.1 Concept

Definition of Chambers and Conway (1992) on livelihood is that "a livelihood

comprises the capabilities, assets, and activities required for a means of living" A

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livelihood is sustainable "which can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks; maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets; provide sustainable livelihood opportunities for the next generation; and contributes net benefits to other livelihoods

at the local and global levels and in the short and long terms" Based on the concept

of sustainable livelihoods initiated by Chambers and Conway (1992), Scoones (1998) defines a livelihood "comprises the capabilities, assets (including both material and social resources) for a means of living A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future, while not undermining the natural resource base" In 2001, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) launched a concept of livelihood as a guidance for their own assistance activities in which a livelihood "comprises the capabilities, assets and activities required for a means of living" This concept is basically similar to the concept of livelihood developed by Chambers and Conway (1992) and Scoones (1998)

1.1.2 Sustainability of the livelihoods

• A livelihood is considered as economic sustainability when it achieves and

maintains a certain level of basic economic welfare and this welfare may vary between regions

• Social sustainability of a livelihood is achieved when social discrimination is

minimized and social equity is maximized

• Environmental sustainability refers to maintaining or enhancing the

productivity of natural resources for the benefit of future generation

• A livelihood is seen as institutional sustainability when existing structures or

processes are capable of performing their functions in a continuous and stable manner over time to support the implementation of livelihood strategies

1.1.3 Criteria to assess sustainability of the livelihoods

• Economic sustainability: is normally evaluated by household income increase

• Social sustainability: is assessed through some criteria such as job creation, poverty reduction and food security

• Environmental sustainability: is evaluated through sustainable use of natural resources and harmless environmental degradation

• Institutional sustainability: is evaluated through criteria such as sufficient and efficient legislation system, efficient policy making process, effective agencies/organizations in private and public sectors, which create an favorable environment for livelihoods to be improved over time

1.1.4 Sustainable Livelihoods Framework

Basically, the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework analyzes the interaction between five components affecting livelihoods, including (i) livelihood assets, (ii) livelihood strategies, (iii) livelihood outcomes, (iv) institutions and policies at different levels, and (v) external context General idea of the sustainable livelihoods framework is that

within a certain institutional and political context, a household used their own existing livelihood assets (including human, natural, financial, physical and social capital) to implement livelihood strategies (such as agriculture, fisheries, aquaculture,

tourism, diversification of livelihoods, migration ) to achieve sustainable livelihood

outcomes (such as job creation, income improvement, risk and vulnerability

mitigation, food security improvement, sustainable use of natural resources ) under

the impact of external context (shocks, trends, and seasonality) Specifically, analysis

of the sustainable livelihoods framework helps answer the question: Which livelihood

assets, livelihood strategies, institutions and policies are critical to achieve

sustainable livelihoods for different groups

1.2 Sustainable Livelihoods and Climate Change

1.2.1 Overview of climate change

According to Article 1, paragraph 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC) in 1992, climate change means a change of climate which is

attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the

global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed

over comparable time periods The Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and

Environment defines climate change "is the change of the climate compared to its

medium state and/or climate fluctuations maintained in a long period of time, usually

a number of decades or longer"

Climate change is represented by the following signs:

• Increase in average global temperature,

• Sea level rise due to thermal expansion and ice melting,

• Change in the composition and quality of the atmosphere,

• Movement of the tropical climate between different regions of the earth,

• Change in the intensity of atmospheric circulation, natural water cycles and

other biogeochemical cycles,

• Change in biological productivity of ecosystems, the quality and

composition of the hydrosphere, biosphere and geosphere

The climate is changed due to variations in the climate by nature and by human

impacts through socio-economic activities The fight against global climate change

requires urgent actions in a global scale both in climate change adaptation and

mitigation Mitigation is implemented to reduce the level or intensity of greenhouse

gas emission Adaptation is an adjustment of human and natural systems to

environmental changes in order to reduce vulnerability caused by climate change and

take advantage of opportunities that can be bought from climate change

1.2.2 Integrating Sustainable Livelihoods Framework and Climate Change

Considering current and future impacts of climate change, it is realized that climate

change is a key factor related to the vulnerability of livelihoods First of all, climate

change does affect livelihood assets, especially natural capital (such as land, water,

and fisheries resources) and physical capital (such as roads, irrigation systems, and

power network) which are sensitive to climate change When the livelihood assets are

vulnerable to the impact of climate change, livelihood strategies will be affected,

which in turn will affect livelihood outcomes In the context that climate change is

increasingly complex in the future, livelihoods should be not only sustainable, but

also adaptive in order to reduce vulnerability caused by climate change Therefore,

integrating sustainable livelihoods framework with climate change will help build

sustainable and adaptive livelihoods in the context of climate change

1.3 Sustainable livelihoods in coastal area in the context of climate change

1.3.1 Impacts of climate change on coastal area

Climate change will impact coastal area in two aspects: coastal ecosystems and human socio-economic activities The coastal ecosystems remains high biodiversity and important ecological functions to people Climate change will have impacts on health, function, and productivity of coastal ecosystems When those ecological functions are declined, the coastal ecosystem becomes more and more weakened and

it is hard for them to be recovered to counter the impact of climate change The decline in the ecological function of coastal ecosystems will cause serious effects on the health, economic activities and social welfare of billions of coastal inhabitants who are dependent on the goods and services provided by these ecosystems Generally, most of socio-economic activities have been affected by climate change

1.3.2 Vulnerability of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of climate change

In the context of climate change, vulnerability is defined as "the degree to which a system (natural, economic, social) may be vulnerable to climate change, or might not

be adaptive to the negative impacts of climate change" Human vulnerability to the impact of climate change depends on four factors: (i) nature and magnitude of climate change, (ii) dependence of human activities on resources sensitive to climate change, (iii) the sensitivity of these resources to the impact of climate change, and (iv) human adaptability to changes of resources sensitive to climate change

Climate change creates damages to natural resources sensitive to the climate such as land and water source In addition, climate change does affect physical assets such as infrastructure The impacted assets by climate change will have impacts on the selection of livelihood strategies and expected livelihoods outcomes at household level In general, climate change will affect such coastal livelihoods as agriculture and fisheries When the current livelihoods are more vulnerable to the impact of climate change, households will attempt to carry out adaptation activities Therefore, capacity building for coastal communities who are affected by climate change will help them successfully adapt to the impact of climate change

1.3.3 Adaptive capacity of coastal livelihoods to the impact of climate change

IPCC defines adaptive capacity as "a self-adjustment capability (resilience) of a system to climate change to mitigate potential damages, to take opportunities, or to cope with the consequences." According to Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, adaptive capacity to climate change is "adjustment (resilience) of natural and human systems to changes of situation or environment in order to reduce vulnerability caused by fluctuations and changes of the current climate and to take advantage of potential opportunities brought by climate change" USAID indicates that adaptive capacity to climate change is "capability of a society to make changes in the way that society is better equipped to manage risks or sensitivity from the impact

of climate change"

Adaptive capacity is manifested through adaptation activities aiming at reducing vulnerability Generally, adaptation activities are divided into:

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• Anticipatory and reactive adaptation

• Passive and active adaptation

• Private and public adaptation

In the context of climate change, livelihood adaptation at household is divided into 2

levels The first one is passive adaptation – temporary adjustments of livelihoods

strategies in the short term The second one is active adaptation - strategically

planned adjustments of livelihoods strategies in long term with policy support from

the government Livelihood adaptation practices to the impact of climate change

comprises: (i) activities that households do themselves, (ii) supporting activities and

subsidies planed by the government, and (iii) supports from other organizations

1.3.4 Livelihood support to adapt to climate change

1.3.4.1 Support to improve livelihoods assets

• Improving natural capital

• Improving physical capital

• Improving financial capital

• Improving human capital

• Improving social capital

1.3.4.2 Creating enabling environment in terms of institutions and policies on

climate change adaptation: Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into

development planing

• Mainstreaming climate change into national or regional policies

• Mainstreaming climate change into investment funds and sectoral projects

• Mainstreaming climate change into local initiatives

CHAPTER 2 METHODOLOGY 2.1 Research hypotheses

(1) The more frequently climate change happens, the more livelihood assets

are affected (positive relationship)

(2) The more livelihoods assets are affected by climate change, the more

livelihoods strategies are affected (positive relationship)

(3) The more livelihoods strategies are affected by climate change, the more

livelihoods outcomes are affected (positive relationship)

(4) When livelihoods strategies are vulnerable to climate change impacts,

households tend to adjust their livelihood strategies depending on their capacity to

adapt Household adaptation to climate change can be divided into 2 levels: active

adaptation and passive adaptation

(5) To enhance household capacity to adapt to climate change impacts, it is

necessary for the government to support households to help them move from passive

adaptation to active adaptation

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2.2 Analytical framework

CURRENT STATUS OF HOUSEHOLD LIVELIHOODS

• Livelihoods assets

• Livelihoods strategies

• Livelihoods outcomes

• Institutions and policies

• External context

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON COASTAL AREA

• Impact on coastal ecosystems

• Impact on human socio-economic activities

VULNERABILITY OF HOUSEHOLD LIVELIHOODS

TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change
Livelihoods Assets
Livelihoods Strategies
Livelihoods Outcomes

HOUSEHOLD LIVELIHOODS ADAPTATION TO THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

• Passive adaptation

• Active adaptation

LIVELIHOODS SUPPORT TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE

• Improve livelihoods assets

• Enhance institutions and policies on adaptation

to climate change

SUSTAINABLE AND ADAPTIVE LIVELIHOODS

• Economic sustainability

• Social sustainability

• Environmental sustainability

• Institutional sustainability

• Adaptability to the impact of climate change

2.3 Data sources

2.3.1 Secondary data

This data was collected from 5 main sources:

* Statistical year books

• Provincial statistical yearbooks (including Hai Phong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, and Ninh Binh)

• District statistical yearbooks (including three coastal districts of Nam Dinh Province namely Giao Thuy, Hai Hau, and Nghia Hung)

* Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS)

The thesis exploited primary data on household livelihoods in 4 coastal provinces in the Red River Delta: Hai Phong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh from Vietnam living standards survey in 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010 using STATA software

* Agriculture, fisheries, and rural area Census

The thesis used information on agriculture, fisheries, and rural area Census in 2006

Census since the information of the Census in 2011 has not been published

* Labor and employment Survey

Data from labor and employment survey conducted by General Statistics Office in

the last 5 years was also exploited in this thesis in order to gather data on labor and

employment in four coastal provinces in the Red River Delta

* Papers, reports, and studies by institutions and individuals

Papers, reports, and studies of individuals and organizations (including the Vietnam

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural

Development, Nam Dinh Department of Natural Resources and Environment) were

also used in this thesis to have different points of view on the research theme

2.3.2 Primary data

2.3.2.1 Reasons for selection of Nam Dinh province as a case study

Firstly, according to the study by Jeremy Carew-Reid (2008), Nam Dinh is one of the

most affected province by climate change in coastal Red River Delta, particularly in

terms of land and the number of affected people

Secondly, economic structure of Nam Dinh is represented by a high proportion of

agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector (accounting for an average of 33% of GDP

in 2001-2011) This sector is very sensitive to climate change impacts

Thirdly, the proportion of laborers working in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries of

Nam Dinh province is largest in four coastal provinces in the Red River Delta

(accounting for 68.3% in the period of 2005-2011)

Fourth, for three coastal districts of Nam Dinh province, agriculture, forestry, and

fisheries sector plays an important role in the district’s economic development as

77% of the labor force evolving in this sector which makes a contribution of 60% to

GDP However, this sector is most vulnerable to the impact of climate change

Fifth, Xuan Thuy National Park (Giao Thuy district), which has an area of 15,000

hectares located in connection between the Red River and the sea, is of high

biodiversity that many households depend on for a means of living However, this is

also the area highly sensitive to the impact of climate change

2.3.2.2 Data collection method

A household survey was conducted in three coastal districts of Nam Dinh province,

including Giao Thuy, Hai Hau, and Nghia Hung In each district, two or three coastal

communes were selected based on two criteria: (i) they are agricultural communes

which main livelihoods are agriculture (rice cultivation, livestock breeding, and salt

production) and fisheries (fishing and aquaculturing), (ii) they are suffering from

serious climate change impacts that increasingly affect agriculturure and fisheries

Based on the above criteria, 7 communes were selected for the survey: Giao Xuan

and Giao Thien (Giao Thuy district); Hai Dong and Hai Ly (Hai Hau district); Nghia

Thang, Nghia Phuc, and Nam Dien (Nghia Hung district)

Information was collected from two main groups of informants: (i) commune’s leaders and officials working in agriculture and fisheries sector and (ii) local households representing 5 main groups of livelihoods which are seriously affected by climate change (rice cultivation, livestock breeding, salt production, fishing, and aquaculturing)

Primary data collection was done through 2 steps:

* Step 1: Collect qualitative information

- Individual in-depth interview: in each commune, 05 individual in-depth interviews were carried out representing 5 main livelihoods Therefore, for 7 selected villages, 35 individual in-depth interviews were implemented

- Group discussion: in each commune, 02 focus group discussions were made Totally, 14 focus group discussions were conducted

* Step 2: Collect quantitative information Based on the qualitative data collected, a household questionnaire was designed to collect quantitative information at the household level A household survey in three coastal districts in Nam Dinh province was conducted in December 2012 Total number of surveyed households was 385, in which 298 households have their main livelihoods are agriculture and 87 households have their main livelihoods are fisheries However, after elimination of incomplete or duplicate information on the questionnaires, the number of valid questionnaires was 286 ones

2.4 Data analysis method

2.4.1 Research Objective 1: Analyze current status of household livelihoods in coastal Red River Delta

Using Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLA) and data from VHLSS in 2002,

2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010 of 4 provinces: Hai Phong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, and Ninh Binh, statistical analysis is applied to present household livelihoods in terms of

5 aspects: (i) livelihood assets; (ii) livelihood strategies, (iii) livelihood outcomes, (iv) institutions and policies at deferent levels, and (v) external context

2.4.2 Research Objective 2: Identify main impacts of climate change on coastal area in the Red River Delta

Using secondary data sources, mainly from reports and studies of Vietnam Ministry

of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), international organizations and individuals, statistical and description analysis is utilized to point out main impacts of climate change on coastal area in the Red River Delta of Vietnam

2.4.3 Research Objective 3: Analyze vulnerability to the impact of climate change

of different livelihoods groups through a case study in Nam Dinh

2.4.3.1 Analytical Framework

Vulnerability of livelihoods is analyzed as follows: climate change firstly affects livelihood assets and then the impacted livelihood assets will affect livelihood strategies which in turn will affect the livelihood outcomes

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2.4.3.2 Estimation method

The thesis applies OLS method to estimate the impacts of (i) climate change on

livelihood assets, (ii) the impacted livelihood assets on livelihoods strategies, and (iii)

livelihood strategies on livelihood outcomes by using data collected from the

household survey in three coastal districts of Nam Dinh province

2.4.3.3 Definition of variables in the estimation models

Part 1: Climate change affects livelihoods assets

Independent variables: 5 variables representing 5 manifestations of climate change,

including drought, storm, increased temperature, sea level rise, and saltwater

intrusion

Dependent variables: 10 variables representing 10 livelihood assets, including rice

cultivation land, livestock breeding facilities, aquaculturing land, fishing facilities,

salt production land, roads, irrigation system, family health, access to bank loans, and

access to information

Part 2: Impacted livelihood assets affect livelihoods strategies

Model 1:

Dependent variable: Rice cultivation (affected by climate change)

Independent variable: Rice cultivation land, roads, irrigation system, health,

access to bank loans, access to information (affected by climate change)

Model 2:

Dependent variable: Livestock breeding (affected by climate change)

Independent variable: Livestock breeding facilities, roads, irrigation system,

health, access to bank loans, access to information (affected by climate change)

Model 3:

Dependent variable: Salt production (affected by climate change)

Independent variable: Salt production land, roads, irrigation system, health,

access to bank loans, access to information (affected by climate change)

Model 4:

Dependent variable: Aquaculture practices (affected by climate change)

Independent variable: Aquaculture land, roads, irrigation system, health, access

to bank loans, access to information (affected by climate change)

Model 5:

Dependent variable: Fishing (affected by climate change)

Independent variable: Fishing facilities, roads, irrigation system, health, access

to bank loans, access to information (affected by climate change)

Part 3: Impacted livelihood strategies affect livelihood outcomes

Model 1:

Dependent variable: Income from rice cultivation (affected by climate change)

Independent variable: Rice cultivation (affected by climate change)

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Model 2:

Dependent variable: Income from livestock breeding (affected by climate change)

Independent variable: Livestock breeding (affected by climate change)

Model 3:

Dependent variable: Income from salt production (affected by climate change) Independent variable: Salt production (affected by climate change)

Model 4:

Dependent variable: Income from aquaculturing (affected by climate change) Independent variable: Aquaculture practices (affected by climate change)

Model 5:

Dependent variable: Income from fishing (affected by climate change) Independent variable: Fishing (affected by climate change)

2.4.3.4 Variable measurement

• Variations on climate change: are measured by the frequency that climate

change happens with the degree as follows: never occurrence = 1; seldom occurrence = 2; moderate occurrence = 3; regular occurrence = 4; very often occurrence = 5

• Livelihood assets, livelihoods strategies, and livelihood outcomes affected

by climate change are measured as follows: no impact = 1; little impact = 2;

medium impact = 3; large impact = 4; very large impact = 5

2.4.4 Research Objective 4: Assess household’s capacity to adapt to the impact of climate change on their livelihoods through a case study in Nam Dinh

Using the analytical framework of adaptive capacity which is divided into two levels: passive adaptation and active adaptation and data from the household survey in three coastal districts of Nam Dinh province, adaptation practices to the impact of climate change of different livelihoods groups at household level were statistically analyzed

2.4.5 Research Objective 5: Identify government policies to support households adapt to climate change

Applying the theory of livelihoods support and using data from the household survey

in three coastal districts of Nam Dinh province processed by statistical methods, policies for supporting household livelihoods are proposed

2.4.6 Research Objective 6: Propose sustainable and adaptive livelihoods in the context of climate change for coastal districts of Nam Dinh province

Economic, social, environmental, and institutional sustainability and adaptability to climate change of existing livelihoods are evaluated by Multi-Criteria Analysis method The sustainable and adaptive livelihoods for three coastal districts of Nam Dinh province are ranked by scoring method

CHAPTER 3 HOUSEHOLD LIVELIHOODS IN COASTAL RED RIVER DELTA IN THE

CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE:

A CASE STUDY IN NAM DINH PROVINCE 3.1 Current status of household livelihoods in coastal Red River Delta

3.1.1 Overview of socio-economic development in coastal Red River Delta

The coastal area of the Red River Delta comprises four provinces/cities which are: Hai

Phong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, and Ninh Binh In 2011, the region has an area of

12,237 km2, accounting for 58% of total area of Red River Delta and a population of

7.568.600 habitants, accounting for 38% of the total population of the Red River Delta

On average in the period of 2001-2010, the average economic growth rate of coastal

Red River Delta is 11.3% per year which is higher than the national average (7.3%

per year) and the coastal area of Vietnam (10.9% per year) There has been a positive

change in economic structure of the coastal Red River Delta in the period of

2000-2010 On average, service sector makes the largest contribution to the GDP (41.7%),

followed by industry and construction (34%) and agriculture, forestry and fisheries

(24.3%) The labor force in the coastal Red River Delta mainly evolves in agriculture,

forestry and fisheries sector Nam Dinh has the highest percentage of labor force

working in agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector (68.3%), followed by Thai Binh

(63.4%), Ninh Binh (54.9%), and Hai Phong (36.7%) Income per capita of 4

provinces in coastal Red River Delta has been increased overtime On average during

the period of 2005-2011, the average income per capita is about 14.8 million VND

per person per year

3.1.2 Current status of household livelihoods in coastal Red River Delta

Using secondary data from VHLSS, household livelihoods in the coastal Red River

Delta areas have the following characteristics:

- Livelihood assets: Natural, physical, financial, human, and social capital have been

improved in four provinces and these are favorable signals that are pushing up

household livelihoods The biggest limitation of livelihood assets is workforce

quality as there is approximately 80% of the labor force which do not have

technical expertise base

- Livelihoods strategies: Service sector generated the highest value per household

per year (41 million VND), followed by industry sector (25 million VND per

household per year), agriculture sector (17 million VND per household per year),

and fisheries sector (12.7 million VND per household per year)

- Livelihoods outcomes: Economically, income per household per month has

increased over years and reached approximately 5 million VND per household per

month in 2010 Socially, the unemployment rate was relatively low and poverty

rate have been decreased significantly Environmentally, livelihood strategies tend

to over exploit natural resources and pollute the marine environment

- Institutions and policies on socio-economic development at central, regional,

sectoral and local levels have created favorable conditions for the development of

household livelihoods in the four coastal provinces in the Red River Delta in the

period of 2001 - 2010

- External context, especially natural disasters (hurricanes, floods) and diseases has

been an obstacle to the socio-economic development of this area in general and

household livelihoods in particular

3.2 Climate change in Vietnam and its impact on coastal livelihoods in Red River Delta

Climate change is increasingly exposed in Vietnam In the last 50 years (1958-2007),

annual average temperature has increased by about 2-3oC Sea level at Hon Dau

station has risen about 3 mm per year, corresponding to 20 cm rise of the sea level in

the last 50 years The average rain fall in the last 50 years has decreased by 2% per

year Extreme weather events have been increased: storms have happened frequently

and storm season has been longer; harmful cold weather tends to last longer

Agriculture and fisheries are mostly impacted by climate change in the coastal Red

River Delta Agriculture, particularly rice cultivation, is closely associated with land

use, thus it is the most vulnerable livelihoods to the impact of climate change Some main impacts are: (i) flooding leads to a loss of cultivated land area, (ii) seawater intrusion leads to a reduction in cultivated land area, (iii) increased temperature

affects growth, productivity, and seasonality of crops In regard to fisheries, climate

change tends to change the environment of aquatic species, which leads to changes in stock due to migration or degraded quality of the habitats, thereby narrowing down

fishing ground and reducing fishing catch For aquaculture, changes in habitats of

aquatic species caused by seawater intrusion and freshwater intrusion will decrease the growth and reproduction of aquatic species

3.3 Household livelihoods in the context of climate change: A case study in Nam Dinh province

3.3.1.Household perception on climate change in local area

Interviewed households clearly felt changes in the climate in recent years Local

people said that storms occured the most often (compared to other weather

phenomena) with increasing intensity and unpredictable tendency Extreme weather events such as warmer weather due to increased temperature, unusual variation of the weather, drought, longer lasting cold weather and rain, were felt clearly by local people in seven surveyed communes Seawater intrusion was an urgent issue that local people in Nghia Phuc and Nam Dien communes (Nghia Hung district) and Giao Thien (Giao Thuy district) felt very deeply High tide has changed dramatically in recent years and Giao Thien people clearly felt this phenomenon

3.3.2 Household perception on vulnerability of different livelihoods groups to the impact of climate change

For the impacted livelihoods assets

* Household capital

Drought had medium impacts (from 3.3 to 3.7 points) on rice cultivation land, salt production land, and aquaculture land Nghia Phuc, Nam Dien communes (Nghia Hung district) and Giao Thien, Giao Xuan communes (Giao Thuy district) were the

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most affected communes Storms had the largest impacts on 5 household capital,

especially salt production land, rice cultivation land and aquaculture land with an

average of about 4 points in all surveyed communes Increased temperature affected

at medium level (more than 3 points) for most household capital and Nam Dien,

Nghia Phuc (Nghia Hung district) and Giao Xuan (Giao Thuy district) were affected

the most Sea level rise affected at average level (approximately 3.5 points) for all

household assets, in which salt production land was affected the most (3.7 points)

Nam Dien (Nghia Hung district) and Giao Xuan (Giao Thuy district) were affected

more than other communes Saltwater intrusion mostly influenced rice cultivation

land at medium level (3,6 point) Nam Dien commune (Nghia Hung district) and

Giao Xuan commune (Giao Thuy district) were mostly affected Generally, there was

no significant difference in the level of impacts of climate change on the household

assets in 7 communes between 2007 and 2010

* Physical capital

Road and irrigation system were mostly affected by storm at medium level (more

than 3 points) in 2007 and at high level (about 4 points) in 2010 Other manifestations

of climate change affected road and irrigation system at medium level (about 3

points) in most surveyed communes Hai Ly commune (Hai Hau district), Nghia

Phuc and Nam Dien communes (Nghia Hung district) and Giao Xuan and Giao Thien

communes (Giao Thuy district) were the most affected communes

* Human capital

Health of local people was mostly affected by storm, drought, and increased

temperature at medium level for drought and increased temperature and at high level

for storm Giao Thien and Giao Xuan communes (Giao Thuy district) and Nam Dien

commune (Nghia Hung district) were the most affected communes

* Financial capital

Access to bank loans was mainly affected by storm (approximately 3.5 points) in

most communes in which Hai Ly (Hai Hau district), Nghia Phuc and Nam Dien

communes (Nghia Hung district), and Giao Xuan and Giao Thien communes (Giao

Thuy district) were the most affected communes Other manifestations of climate

change did not significantly affect access to bank loans in 7 surveyed communes In

general, there was no significant difference on the impact of climate change on access

to bank loans between 2007 and 2012 in all surveyed communes

* Social capital

Similar to access to bank loans, access to information was mainly affected by storm

in most communes, in which Hai Ly commune (Hai Hau district), Nam Dien

commune (Nghia Hung district), Giao Xuan and Giao Thien were affected at high

level Other manifestations of climate change did not have significant impacts on

access to information There were no significant difference of the impact of climate

change on access to information between 2007 and 2012 in all surveyed communes

For the impacted livelihoods strategies

Rice cultivation was affected at medium level by storm and drought The communes

which were most affected were Hai Ly (Hai Hau district) and Giao Xuan, Giao Thien

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(Giao Thuy district) For some communes such as Giao Xuan, Giao Thien (Giao Thuy distrct) and Nam Dien (Nghia Hung district), saltwater intrusion was a major problem affecting farming activities

Storm also had large impacts on livestock breeding in all surveyed communes (more

than 4 points), especially in 2012, in which the most severely affected communes were Giao Thien and Giao Xuan (Giao Thuy district) In addition, local people recognized that the weather was getting warmer and warmer which led to reduction in livestock breeding productivity

Salt production is heavily dependent on the weather and seawater salinity and then

can only be done on sunny days Unusual rains for a few days can lead to no product for previous days of production Storm was the biggest influence on salt production with the average of 4.5 points In the 7 surveyed communes, there are only 3 communes producing salt, including Hai Dong, Hai Ly (Hai Hau district) and Nghia Phuc (Nghia Hung district) These three communes were severely affected by storm for salt production

Fishing is heavily dependent on natural resources and weather conditions In all

surveyed communes, fishing activities were heavily affected by storm (with the average of 4.2 point) The most affected communes by the impact of storm on fishing were: Giao Xuan (Giao Thuy district), Nghia Phuc (Nghia Hung district) and Hai Dong and Hai Ly (Hai Hau district)

Aquaculture practices are generally of high risks to the impact of extreme weather

phenomena Hurricanes, storms, and sea level rise are direct threats to aquaculturing

A storm could damage the entire clam and shrimp ponds Households in 7 surveyed communes stated that storms severely affected aquaculturing

For impacts livelihoods outcomes

When livelihoods strategies were affected by climate change, the income from these livelihood strategies were also reduced, particularly:

- Storm affected all livelihood strategies and reduced income from these livelihoods strategies

- In addition to storm, rice cultivation was heavily affected by drought and saltwater intrusion, thereby reducing income from rice cultivation; livestock breeding was affected by increased temperature, thereby decreasing income from livestock breeding

- The most affected communes were: Hai Ly (Hai Hau district), Nghia Phuc and Nam Dien (Nghia Hung district), Giao Xuan and Giao Thien (Giao Thuy district)

Testing the relationships: Climate change affects livelihood assets; the impacted livelihoods assets affect livelihoods strategies; the impacted livelihoods strategies affect livelihoods outcomes

* Climate change affects the livelihood assets

- Results of estimation models indicated that F values (corresponding to P-value) are relatively small (P values approximately equal to 0) This means that values

of R2 which are larger than 0 are statistically significant

- Based on the value of R2 from the estimation results, it can be seen that R2

values range from 0,04 to 0,43 which are quite low This can be explained that

in addition to 5 variables representing climate change considered in this study,

there are other factors affecting the livelihood assets that have not been

addressed in the study

- Climate change affects the livelihood assets with the following main points:

• The more frequently drought happens, the more rice cultivation land,

aquaculture land, and family health are affected and the less salt production

land is affected with statistical significance at the 5% and 10%

• The more frequently storm happens, the more rice cultivation land,

livestock breeding, aquaculture land, salt production land, road, irrigation

systems, and human health are affected with statistical significance at 5%

and 10%

• The more frequently increased temperature occurs, the more aquaculture

land and family health are affected and the less salt production land is

affected with statistical significance at 5% and 10%

• The more frequently sea level rise happens, the more rice cultivation land,

salt production land, aquaculture land, and road are affected with statistical

significance at 5% and 10%

• The more frequently saltwater intrusion occurs, the more rice cultivation

land is affected with statistical significance at 1%

* Impacted livelihood assets affect livelihoods strategies

- Results of estimation models indicated that F values (corresponding to P-value)

are relatively small (P values approximately equal to 0) This means that values

of R2 which are larger than 0 are statistically significant

- Based on the value of R2 from the estimation results, it can be seen that R2

values range from 0.85 to 0.95 which are very high This means that the

impacted livelihood assets does affect livelihoods strategies

- Impact of livelihood assets on livelihood strategies are shown as follows:

• The impacted livelihood assets (rice cultivation land, livestock breeding

facilities, fishing facilities, aquaculture land, and salt production land) have

positive effects on the respective livelihood strategies (rice cultivation,

livestock breeding, fishing, aquaculture practices and salt production) with

statistical significance at 5% and 10%

• In addition, physical capital (irrigation system) has positive effect on rice

cultivation; social capital (access to information) has positive effect on

fishing; financial capital (access to bank loans) has positive effect on

livestock breeding, fishing and aquaculturing with statistical significance at

the 5% and 10%

* Impacted livelihood strategies affect livelihoods outcomes

• Results of estimation models indicated that F values (corresponding to

P-value) are relatively small (P values approximately equal to 0) This means

that values of R2 which are larger than 0 are statistically significant

• Based on the value of R from the estimation results, it can be seen that R values range from 0.85 to 0.95 which are quite high This means that the impacted livelihood strategies does affect livelihoods outcomes

• The impacted livelihoods strategies and livelihoods outcomes have a positive relationship with statistical significance at 1% The more livelihoods strategies are affected by climate change, the more livelihoods outcomes are affected

3.3.3 Household’s adaptation practices to the impact of climate change on their livelihoods in three coastal districts of Nam Dinh province

Climate change adaptation for rice cultivation Firstly, local people have implemented the following activities to counter the impact of

extreme weather events on rice cultivation:

• Scheduling times for rice cultivation,

• Developing appropriate crops planning,

• Implementing appropriate cultivation techniques suitable in the context of climate change,

• Utilizing rice varieties withstanding the harsh environmental conditions,

• Strengthening agricultural irrigation system

Secondly, for sea level rise that causes flooding, local people have implemented the

following activities:

• Investing in new varieties with higher yield,

• Intensifying on existing land

Thirdly, local people have implemented the following activities to counter the impact

of salt water intrusion:

• Reducing sanility by washing the salinity land,

• Transferring rice cultivation land in to aquaculture land for aquaculture practices,

• Cultivating salt tolerant varieties,

• Cleaning channels to remove saltwater from rice fields,

• Learning experiences from their neighbors and other local communes,

• Looking for non-agricultural jobs locally,

• Mobilizing capital from banks, friends and relatives to invest in new business,

• Migrating to other areas for new employment opportunities,

• Planning for risk management

Climate change adaptation for livestock breeding

• Increasing investment on food and disease prevention,

• Changing livestock breeding techniques,

• Reducing livestock breeding size,

• Learning experiences from their neighbors and other local communes,

• Looking for non-agricultural jobs locally,