Research on the correlation between forest management and climate change in bao thang district, lao cai province local peoples perception and potential uses of GIS technology

THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITYUNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY DO THI HIEN TOPIC TITLE: RESEARCH ON CORRELATION BETWEEN FOREST MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN BAO THANG DISTRICT, LAO CAI

THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY

UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY

DO THI HIEN

TOPIC TITLE: RESEARCH ON CORRELATION BETWEEN FOREST MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN BAO THANG DISTRICT, LAO CAI PROVINCE: LOCAL PEOPLE'S PERCEPTION AND

POTENTIAL USES OF GIS TECHNOLOGY

BACHELOR THESIS

Study Mode: Full-time

Major: Environmental Science and Management

Faculty: International Training and Development Center

Thai Nguyen, 20 January 2015

Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry

Thesis title

Research on the correlation between forest managementand climate change in Bao Thang district, Lao Caiprovince: local people's perception and potential uses ofGIS technology

Abstract

Bao Thang, located in the central of Lao Cai province and having Red river flowedthrough, is a typical industrial district which is essential to the socio-economicdevelopment of the province As a result of industrial zone expansion, Bao Thangenvironment and biodiversity are declined both in quality and quantity, especially forestcommunities Bao Thang forests recover from past clearing or heavy harvest, and forestcarbon stores are growing larger over time However, the industrial emissions fromburning fossil fuels in the this district is captured only about 10% by forests Althoughprivate forest use in Bao Thang has been regulated, illegal deforestation still takesplace This study seeks to assess current status of forest management practices andeffects of climate change by observing local people's perception on these fields as well

as to find out potential uses of GIS technology at local level The results showed thatBao Thang residents are highly aware of the climate change impacts and willingly totake actions though some constraints still exist Moreover, GIS is also applying in LaoCai as a whole, which promisingly will come to local level (Bao Thang in specific) inthe near future In addition, the study suggested some recommendations specificallysuitable for study areas in order to improve sustainable forest management practice forforest owners and managers

The author thanks Mr Do Van Hai for making this report accomplished Aspecial appreciation to the local people who provided information, and to many K42classmates, teachers from AEP office and lecturers including MSc Nguyen Huu Tho,

Dr Nguyen Manh Ha and Dr Ho Ngoc Son, who provided guidance, critics andencouragement And finally, thanks to Assoc Prof Dr Hoang Van Hung, who

enthusiastically reviewed and corrected this report into its final form

Student

DO THI HIEN

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES 5

LIST OF TABLES 6

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 7

PART I INTRODUCTION 8

1.1 Research rationale 8

1.2 Research's objectives 10

1.3 Research questions 11

1.4 Limitations 11

PART II LITERATURE REVIEW 12

2.1 Theoretical background 12

2.2 Practical background 20

2.2.1 Researches in the world 20

2.2.2 Researches in Vietnam 21

PART III METHODS 22

3.1 Material 22

3.2 Methods 22

3.2.1 Survey questionnaires 22

3.2.2 Observation 23

3.2.3 Data collection 23

PART IV RESULTS 24

4.1 General description of the study area 24

4.1.1 Topography 24

4.1.2 Geology 24

4.1.3 Meteorology 25

4.1.4 Extreme events 25

4.1.5 Ecology 25

4.2 Current status and climate change impacts 26

4.3 Roles of forest in climate change 30

4.4 Survey results 31

4.3.1 Importance of climate change 31

4.3.2 Impact of climate change 32

4.3.3 Adaptation and mitigation 33

4.3.4 Support for climate change 34

4.4 Potential uses of GIS technology 34

PART V DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 39

5.1 Discussion 39

5.2 Recommendation 41

5.3 Conclusions 43

REFERENCES 44

APPENDIX 47

Appendix 1 Survey questionnaires 47

Appendix 2 Survey result summary (in percentage) 52

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Bao Thang map

Figure 2: Lao Cai map

Figure 3: Land surface temperature map

Figure 4: Land cover map

Figure 5: Aspect map

Figure 6: Contour map

Figure 7: Digital Elevation Map

LIST OF TABLES

Table I: Forest status quo of study areas in Bao Thang district, 2013 (ha)

Table II: Temperature and precipitation changes in 21st century

Table 1: Gender

Table 2: Time living and working in this Bao Thang

Table 3: Residents' awareness of climate change over the last few decades

Table 4: The trends of changes, driven by climate change and/or other forces

Table 5: The importance of climate change compared to the other challenges

Table 6: Effects of climate change

Table 7: Aspects affected by climate change in the next decade

Table 8: Awareness of national policies, strategies or legislation aimed at climatechange that have a direct or indirect impact on the forest sector

Table 9: Respondent percentage implemented modifications to forest managementplans or practices due to the impacts of climate change

Table 10: Awareness of effects of climate change on forests and the options forclimate change adaptation and mitigation

Table 11: Willingness to undertake climate change adaptation and mitigation actionsTable 12: The greatest constraints limiting forest managers' ability to undertakeclimate change adaptation and mitigation actions in Bao Thang

Table 13: Necessary assistance to address climate change in your area?

Table 14: Support acquisition to forest management and climate change issues

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

UNEP: United Nations Environment Program

RS: Remote Sensing

GIS: Geographic Information System

LULC: Land Use and Land Cover

AR4: The fourth Assessment Report

IPCC: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

UNDP: United Nations Development Program

REDD+: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation

GHGs: Greenhouse Gases

RECOFTC: Regional Community Forestry Training Center for Asia and the Pacific

NGOs: Non-governmental Organizations

PART I INTRODUCTION

1.1 Research rationale

Almost every nation has been addressing the threat of severe climate change,mostly through policies aimed at reducing the buildup of greenhouse gases Naturalecosystems, counting forests - a critical link in the global carbon cycle, play a vitalrole in the mitigation of global warming Forests are crucial both for their largeexisting reservoirs of carbon (called “pools” or “sinks”) and because of the ongoingnet flow of carbon from the atmosphere into that forest reservoir called “flux” Asconsensus grows about the accumulative, grave impacts of climate change, the role offorests in carbon storage is increasingly recognized as one of the easiest options to dealwith these effects Better or sustainable forest management is thus one of the foremoststrategies to mitigate global climate change

Forest is a precious resource needed to maintain current conditions ofenvironment as well as to meet the needs of human beings by supplying multiform ofresources It is a part several cycles on Earth such as water and carbon ones However,since human population increases with considerable growing rate and high densityparticularly in urban areas, people tend to exploit more and more to ensure foodsecurity, firewood and raw material for the socio-economic development, puttingpressure on natural resources in general and forests in specific Thus, the decline offorest resources has become a common and pressing issue of the world, especially fordeveloping countries including Vietnam which is well-known with high hills andmountains and 14th place in population Recently, overexploitation and naturaldisasters such as landslides and fires are causing forest resources deteriorated

substantially in both quantity and quality, leading to air, water and soil problems due

to the loss of CO2 storages, soil erosion, land use change, and unbalanced naturalcycles, which results in the influence on economic, public health, and social benefitsthat these ecosystems provide The challenge for humans and modern science is tounderstand and regulate the effects of these changes, and the complex interactionbetween human and biotic systems at various scales, typically at local level to acquiremore accuracy Improving local people's understanding and knowledge of theconsequences of land use and land cover change is a critically important to address thecurrent major science issues relating to climate change

Contemporary, Vietnam is facing with many environmental problems that haveimpacts on socio-economic development at local and national levels The increase ofcarbon dioxide in the atmosphere exaggerates climate change process, thus moreextreme weather events, such as tropical storms, floods and droughts take place Thosenatural disasters have become a pressing issue for Vietnam government who is incharge of the people’s prosperity as well as for future development of the country

Lao Cai, one of the provinces situated on the Sino-Vietnamese borderline in thenorthwestern part of the country, is home to some vast expanse of primal forests withseveral kinds of rare timber plants such as Po Mu ( Fukiena), Lat Hoa (ChukrasiaTabularis), and Cho Chi The province is also the habitat of many kinds of medicinalherbs and rare animals including deer, wild boar, tigers and others However, the rate

of forest degradation in the area is exacerbated by human activities Topography ofLao Cai is very diversified with rivers, high mountain peaks, steep and high mountainpasses, deep streams and wide valleys but it is also one of the obstacles to applymodern technology in environmental monitoring Bao Thang, located in the central of

the province and having Red river flowed through, is a typical industrial district which

is essential to the socio-economic development of Lao Cai As a result of industrialzone expansion, Bao Thang environment and living organisms are put in danger,especially forest communities Bao Thang forests recover from past clearing or heavyharvest, and forest carbon stores are growing larger over time However, the industrialemissions from burning fossil fuels in the this district is captured only about 10% byforests

Until now, much of the climate warming research has been on a global andregional level It is necessary to conduct more researches at local level However, ourunderstanding of historical changes in Bao Thang forests is inadequate Thus,improving future understanding status quo of the environment typically through localpeople's perception is needed for further researches and sustainable natural ecosystemmanagement

The study not only will be beneficial for local people by providing themfoundation on forest management and climate change, but also act as a primary source

of data for further study, research and management in the future

- Recommending possible intervention actions and suggestions for furtherresearch and better management practices in the study area.

1.3 Research questions

The research was conducted in Bao Thang district - located at 22°22'56"N and104°10'38"E, Lao Cai province from September to December It focused on age-varying indigenous people, immigrants, and those who are working in the district andthe feasibility to apply GIS and technology at the local scale

Local people play an important role in forest protection but it is often neglected.Their perspectives on climate change and forest conditions and management practicesshould be considered as a crucial factor in order to seek for the optimally suitablesolutions for the district environment Moreover, modern technologies are availablesuch as GIS and remote sensing A study with the involvement of local people andapplication of GIS technology is important to address relevant issues on forestmanagement and climate change in Bao Thang to answer the question: what trends can

we expect in our forests if the climate becomes drastically warmer in 2050?

1.4 Limitations

Inadequate data is one of the limitations that the thesis only covered the generalproblems rather than intensive studies Moreover, the mountainous and slopingtopographic structure of the region and negative climate conditions caused difficulties tofind usable (not cloudy) satellite images These problems were tried to be eliminated byindependently applying supervised classification change detection technique to theimages

PART II LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Theoretical background

Climate is the long-term weather pattern (for at least 30 years) in an area,including general patterns and extremes of drought, rains, storms, and freezingtemperatures (Waskey, 2008) Or in other words, climate is the interaction of all of thecomponents of the Earth’s system and it includes the solar and infrared radiation andsensible and latent heat fluxes that are all impacted by changes in the Earth’s surface(Pielke 2002)

A greenhouse gas is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiationwithin the thermal infrared range This process is the fundamental cause of greenhouseeffect The primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere are water vapor,carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide, chloro-floro-carbons (CFCs) andozone Greenhouse gases greatly affect the temperature of the Earth, without them,Earth’s surface would be about 33ºC colder than the present average of 14ºC

A critical and perhaps the dominant global environmental problem in the lastthree decades is global warming, resulting from global climate change (Scholz andHasse, 2008) Global warming is an increase in Earth’s average surface temperature,due mostly to the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by human-fuelledactivities such as increased fossil fuel consumption (Benson, 2008) Climate change isthe long-term change in global weather patterns, associated especially with increases

in temperature, precipitation, and storm activity (Benson, 2008).Climate change is adirect consequence of the continued increase in the atmospheric CO2 mainly resulting

from the anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel burning (Cox et al., 2000; Post et

Recent changes in climate have already had significant impacts on biodiversityand ecosystem in certain regions As climate change will become more severe, theharmful impacts on ecosystem services are expected to outweigh possible benefits,such as a longer growing season, in most regions of the world Climate change isexpected to exacerbate risks of extinctions, floods, droughts, population declines, anddisease outbreaks Climate change can result in significant land use change and land

cover shift (Briner et al., 2012), aggravate drought (Kassas, 1995) and modify the capacity of the ecosystem to provide ecosystem goods and services (Briner et al.,

2012) The effects of climate change range from ―shifts in ice freeze and break-updates on rivers and lakes; increases in rainfall and rainfall intensity in some areas with

lengthening of growing seasons; and precipitation of flowering of trees, emergence ofinsects, and egg-laying in birds (Pittock, 2009) The eventuality of these is that humansurvival is threatened

The significant role of the land within the climate system should not besurprising Forests play an important role in carbon cycle Apart from this role, tropicalforests provide numerous additional ecosystem services in which many of themdirectly or indirectly influence climate The climate-related ecosystem services thattropical forests provide include the maintenance of elevated soil moisture and surfaceair humidity, reduced sunlight penetration, weaker near-surface winds and theinhibition of anaerobic soil conditions Clear-cutting a forest, for instance, boostsrespiration (releasing CO2) and suppresses photosynthesis (reducing biologicalfixation of CO2) for several years or decades—even when land is replanted or allowed

to regenerate trees Large existing stores of carbon are released into the atmospherewhen land is converted to other uses Since more land is developed, drained, orotherwise converted annually than is restored to its natural cover.

Forest ecosystems play multiple roles at global as well as local levels: asproviders of environmental services to nature in general, humans in particular, and assource of economically valued products (UNEP 2002) Forests especially naturalforests are used for various ecological and economic purposes They could maintainlocal climate, regulates hydraulic cycle, used as wild life habitats and reduce runoffand soil erosion The economic importance of forests includes supply of raw materialfor pulp and paper, provision of timber for construction and other activities and used

as fuel wood for energy source Therefore, depletion of this important natural resourcewill affect other valuable and life supporting 26 resources like water and soil Inaddition to these, the climate change and biodiversity will also be greatly affected bydeforestation It is very strategic and wise approach to avoid other problems by solvingthis key problem

According to James W Moore (1986), deforestation is one of the major causes

of land cover change and it is the most pervasive concerns in developing countries,especially in tropical moist forests, which covers some 550 million ha of the globe,with an annual harvesting rate of over 2% So that the forest cover of the world isdeclining continuously and have global environmental implications He indicated theworld wide consequences of deforestation as - change in the way of life of localpeople, extinction species, loss of undefined reservoir of genetic resources, increasederosion from wind and water, and increased desertification; increased runoff to rivers,

resulting in flooding and future erosion; reduced transpiration from vegetation andthus less precipitation, and change in the regional Albedo.

Biodiversity refers to the variability among living organisms from all sources,including terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, the ecological complexes ofwhich they are part It will include diversity within species, between 30 species and ofecosystems (UNEP 2002) Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain fromecosystems Biodiversity plays an important role in the way ecosystems function and

in the many services they provide Services include nutrient and water cycling, soilformation and retention, resistance against invasive species, pollination of plants,regulation of climate, as well as pest and pollution control by ecosystems Forecosystem services it matters which species are abundant as well as how many speciesare present (Facts on Biodiversity 2005)

Vegetation provides a range of ecosystem services such as food and shelter forwildlife, and it controls the Earth’s climate by regulating evapo-transpiration and

sequestration of carbon (Czerepowicza et al., 2012) Vegetation however is

increasingly endangered mainly due to anthropogenic and climatic influences (Steven,2001).World forests increasingly appear finite, vulnerable, dangerously diminished,perhaps already subject to irreparable damage (Steven, 2001) A most significantintellectual challenge to ecologists and bio-geographers is to understand vegetationspatial temporal patterns (Liu, 2007) RS is one of the widely used approaches forproviding scientific evidence of vegetation change (Omuto, 2010) Classification andchange detection carried out showed accelerated land degradation of the grassland

around the salt-affected soil near the water bodies due to variation in water sizes as aresult of both climate change and anthropogenic activities.

Land use and land cover change affects a wide range of human and naturalsystems and contributes to changes in carbon exchange and climate through a range offeedbacks Future changes in LULC are a function of numerous driving forcevariables Biophysical conditions, population change, economic activity and growth,societal attitudes, governance, and regulatory regimes are all important drivers ofchange, interacting to create unique and dynamic LULC mosaics functioning at arange of geographic scales LULC scenario development, coupled with spatiallyexplicit LULC modeling, has emerged as a useful framework for investigatingalternative futures of land use and land cover and the potential impacts of Earthsystems

Land use and land cover change is now recognized as a major force ofenvironmental change It affects ecosystem function, biodiversity and habitat, waterquality and quantity, and is a forcing and feedback factor to climate change, amongnumerous other consequences that range from dust flux to forest fragmentation Thisproject specifically contributes to understanding the status, trends, and consequences

of land change across the ecological regions of the Lao Cai province

The 2007 fourth Assessment Report (AR4) compiled by the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted that “changes in atmospheric concentrations ofgreenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance

of the climate system”, and concluded that “increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas

concentration is very likely to have caused most of the increases in global averagetemperatures since the mid-20thcentury”.

Reducing the risks caused by climate change is an immense challenge.Scientists, policy makers, developers, engineers, and many others have usedgeographic information system (GIS) technology to better understand a complexsituation and offer some tangible solutions Technology offers a means to assess, plan,and implement sustainable programs that can affect us 10, 20, and 100 years into thefuture (Dangermond and James Baker 2010)

“GIS is an integrated system of computer hardware, software, and trainedpersonnel linking topographic, demographic, utility, facility, image and other resourcedata that is geographically referenced.” ~ NASA

Remote sensing is the science of deriving information about an object frommeasurements made at a distance from the object without actually coming in contactwith it The quantity most frequently measured in present day remote sensing systems

is the electromagnetic energy emanating from the objects of interest and although thereother possibilities such as seismic waves, sonic waves and gravitational force

Remote sensing and GIS are being increasingly used in combination spatialanalysis GIS databases are used to improve the extraction of relevant informationfrom remote sensing imagery, whereas remote sensing data provide periodic pictures

of geometric and thematic characteristics of terrain objects, improving our ability to

detect changes and update GIS databases (Janssen, 1993 In Luis M T et al., 2003).

Human activity is vastly altering the Earth’s vegetative cover Such changeshave considerable consequences for the health and resilience of ecosystems and forhuman welfare They also contribute to anthropogenic climate change through a

variety of processes These include the growth or degradation of surface vegetation,which produces changes in the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide;and changes in the land surface, which affect regional and global climate by producingchanges in the surface energy budgets (Gregg, 2003).

From a plethora of definitions, RS is defined in this study according to Janssen(2004) as the process of acquiring data on characteristics of the Earth’s surface by adevice (sensor) that is not in contact with the objects being measured and theprocessing of the data.GIS is the information tied to the earth’s surface (including thezones immediately adjacent to the surface, and thus the subsurface, oceans, and

atmosphere) (Longley et al., 1999).RS enables the acquisition of large-scale

comprehensive datasets whereas GIS provides a means of displaying, overlaying,combining data from other sources and analyzing the data (Chapman and Thornes,2003)

Geographical information systems (GIS) and remote sensing are established information technologies, the value of which for applications in land andnatural resources management are now widely recognized They are, however, stillessentially separate technologies and practitioners still generally consider themselvesprimarily involved with one or the other Current technologies such as geographicalinformation systems and remote sensing provide a cost effective and accuratealternative to understanding landscape dynamics Digital change detection techniquesbased on multi-temporal and multi- spectral remotely sensed data have demonstrated agreat potential as a means to understanding landscape dynamics- detect, identify, map,and monitor differences in land use and land cover patterns over time, irrespective of

well-made it possible to perform image analysis at much larger scale than in the past GIShas enormous possible as an environment for the conception of dynamic models ofphysical environmental processes.

Adaptive actions are adjustments in assets, livelihoods, behaviors, technologies,

or policies that address ongoing and future climate changes (IPCC, 2007; Stern, 2006;UNDP, 2007; Smit and Wandel, 2006) Adaptation confers private benefits it is inpeople's self-interest to adapt in order to safeguard lives and livelihoods Adaptiveactions comprise both private, club, and public goods Heltberg, Siegel, and Jorgensen(2009) define adaptive capacity as the ability to deploy social risk managementstrategies for reduction of risk and human vulnerability associated with climatechange The drivers of adaptive capacity include physical, financial, human, and socialcapital Adaptive capacity is unequally distributed: it varies systematically alongexisting fault lines for inequality and social exclusion such as gender, ethnicity, andsocio-economic status (Ribot, 2010)

Climate change adaptation is living with climate change It is an automatic orplanned response to climate change that minimizes the adverse effects and maximizesany benefits (Pittock, 2009) Strategies for climate change adaptation include lossbearing, loss sharing, climate change threat modification, effect prevention, change inland-use or activity, location change, furtherance of research on better methods ofadaptation and behavioral change (Pittock, 2009) Going by the range of options ofadaptation, it is rational to settle for prevention rather than cure

2.2 Practical background

2.2.1 Researches in the world

There are thousands of researches in the world in association with GISapplication and forest management Including, "The use of remote sensing and GISmethods for mapping land cover change in Scotland" was conducted to seek forqualified changes in land cover and habitats, important for wildlife in Scotland

In 2000, A GIS based integrated land use/ cover change model to study human land interactions project was carried out to develop a suitable model to explain thechanges in the land use patterns and the resulting land cover and also to forecast them

-in Japan

IPCC completed the research named exploring climate patterns embedded inglobal climate change datasets to explore the analysis of climate patterns embedded inthe Global Climate Data Sets generated by the Community Climate System Model(CCSM) for the 4th Assessment Report

In 2011, Mapping vulnerability to climate change project was conducted underthe support from World Bank to develop a methodology for regional disaggregatedestimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts

of climate change and variability and apply it to Tajikistan, a mountainous countryhighly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change

In 2012, there was a research on forest management and climate change:stakeholder perception conducted by the Forest and Climate Change program of FAO

to provide timely information and tools to a wide range of stakeholders, with theultimate objective of assisting countries' efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate changethrough actions consistent with sustainable forest management

2.2.2 Researches in Vietnam

Research named estimation of biomass for calculating carbon storage and CO2sequestration using remote sensing technology in Yok Don National Park, centralhighlands of Vietnam was conducted in 2012 to estimate biomass and carbon stocks intropical forest using remote sensing data for dry forest of central highlands ofVietnam

Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment generated the climatechange and sea level rise scenarios to all provinces in the country in order to provideall general information for future trends in association with socio-economicdevelopment

PART III METHODS

The research was conducted from September to December 2014 in Bao Thangdistrict, Lao Cai province The final results were processed by using computer roomand laboratory in Lao Cai Community College

3.1 Material

To identify potential uses of GIS technology, researcher used remote sensing datadownloaded from online website then developed Bao Thang maps: Satellite image wasused as a primary source of data for the study area Applying GIS and remote sensingtechnology to develop maps associated with altitude, temperature, land cover andaspect for evaluation of correlation between land cover and climate change in BaoThang district, Lao Cai province, Vietnam Images were downloaded from an onlinewebsite for free, then validated and edited through some checking and correctionprocesses After that, they were converted from vector to raster and generalized andclassified before integration step to create a map Finally, the maps were enhanced byadding title, scale, key, map symbolism, and draping overlays and exported into animage file

3.2 Methods

3.2.1 Survey questionnaires

From September to November 2014, 100 randomly chosen local people,involving forest owners, indigenous people, and others living and working in theresearch area from 3 towns to represent a range of conditions across the region,including Tang Loong (40 people), Pho Lu (30 people), and Phong Hai (30 people),were surveyed and interviewed (survey questionnaires attached in appendix 1)

The survey recorded their observations of climate change impacts and the ability

to address related needs and created a summary of the survey results (appendix 2)

Percentage distribution was used to analyze questionnaires Information on thesocio-economic conditions of 100 selected households will be used to identify theunderlying factors and explain the effects of changes.

3.2.2 Observation

The researcher gathered information by recording behavioral patterns, lifestyle, andbelief in 3 towns of Bao Thang district, Lao Cai province, including Pho Lu, Tang Loong,and Phong Hai towns Studies were carried out to have a detailed examination of the site

in order to fully understand and depict experiences through examination and crosscomparison of towns: what is there and how it got there

3.2.3 Data collection

From September to October 2014, the author searched for information onbackground, development, current conditions, and environmental interaction of forestchange and natural phenomena observed, recorded, and analyzed in order to completedescription of present phenomena from Bao Thang Division of Natural Resources andEnvironment and Bao Thang Forest Protection Division

PART IV RESULTS 4.1 General description of the study area

4.1.1 Topography

Bao Thang, a rural district of Lao Cai Province in the northeast region ofVietnam with average altitude ranging from 80 to 400 meters, has Red river flowingthrough Bao Thang topography includes a narrow valley strip that runs along Redriver; the west is the low mountain range of Fansipan mountain; the east is the lowmountain range of An Ngu mountain in the upper Red river The Red river flowing indistrict domain has 42 kilometers long and divides Bao Thang into 2 regions - rightbank and left bank The right bank has numerous big streams originating fromFansipan mountain, resulting in favorable conditions for waterway transportation, such

as Ngoi Bo, Ngoi Nhu, Suoi Nhon, Suoi Trat etc In general, the streams in Bao Thangare sloping with unequal and rather rough water flow along mountain and hill sides.Many groundwater streams run out from mountains consistently, which benefits localpeople with trenches for irrigation and daily life

4.1.2 Geology

According to the results from geology survey conducted by Joint-StockEnvironmental Geology Company in 2008, the features of soil gradation are asfollowing:

- Layer 1: mixed firm clay which has red brown and yellow grey colors

- Layer 2: raw aggregated sandstone moderately to strongly weathered by wind andwater

- Layer 3: raw aggregated sandstone slightly to moderately weathered by wind andwater

4.1.3 Meteorology

Lao Cai has subequatorial tropical monsoon climate that includes 2 clearseasons (dry and rainy seasons) The rains starts from May and end in October,accounting for 80% rainfall of a year Dry season is between November and nextApril The average temperature is 22.5 oC, which reaches the peak at 29.7 oC in June

2009 and hits a low at 13.2 oC in February 2010 Lao Cai has a rather high annualrainfall, from 1300 to 1400 mm in average within 120 to 150 rainy days

4.1.4 Extreme events

During rainy season, there often have serious floods which suddenly run frommountain sides, causing traffic congestion and threatening human lives and property,typically flash floods Furthermore, landslides especially near stream sides and steepslopes are one of the common and pressing issues in Bao Thang In addition, chemicaland physical weathering phenomena are different in different topographies andsignificantly affected by groundwater Another extreme event is earthquake which,according to meteorological station in Pho Lu town, there is no intensive one occurring

in the past 10 years Besides, there are other extreme weather such as highertemperature, hurricanes and tropical low pressure, and droughts

4.1.5 Ecology

Scrub vegetation is the most popular in Bao Thang due to consistent andrepeated deforestation as well as heavy rains causing soil erosion and infertile soil in thefirst layer Besides, there are other types of plants such as bamboo, straw grass, aquatic

plants, plant inferiority (moss, lichen, and fungi) With no rare and endangered speciesand domestic animals dominated, Bao Thang fauna is much less diverse than otherdistricts in Lao Cai According to the annual report from Bao Thang Forest ProtectionDivision, the plantation forest areas are increasing and surpassing natural forest area(2013):

Table I: Forest status quo of study areas in Bao Thang district, 2013

Town

Total forest area (ha)

Forestry area (ha)

In which

land (ha)

(Source: Bao Thang annual report - Bao Thang Forest Protection Division, 2013)

4.2 Current status and climate change impacts

According to the climate change scenarios generated by Ministry of NaturalResources and Environment, significant increases in Lao Cai average temperature andprecipitation up to 2.5oC and 5.3% respectively will occur in this century

Table II: Temperature and precipitation changes in 21st century

Temperature

(o C) 0.5 0.7 1.0

1.3(1.0-1.6) 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3

2.5(2.2-3.1)

Precipitation

2.8(2.0-4.0) 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.9

5.3(5.0-6.0)(Source: Climate change and sea level rise scenarios - Vietnam Ministry ofNatural Resources and Environment, 2010)

Moreover, the climatic conditions determining the forest vegetation zones willmove towards dryer and warmer types In general, a region with a considerablywarmer climate will develop, when the borders of the non-forest territories shifttowards the northwest, the growth conditions for the existing tree species willdeteriorate, which will result in unfavorable conditions for the main forest-formingspecies In addition, the currently dominant species will continue to grow in thechanging conditions, but during the adaptation period their condition may alsodeteriorate.

According to annual report from Bao Thang Forest Protection Division in 2013,the main effects of this impact are predicted, first of all, the growing areas of severalspecies will change due to changes in natural zone borders, and in certain cases certainproductive species will disappear completely Second of all, the modes, types,intensity, impact and frequency of various perturbation factors such as insects,diseases, fires, etc will change, leading to the alteration of living conditions for allspecies especially the ones which difficultly adapt with new environment A tendencytoward greater tree vulnerability caused by insect infestations from spring to latesummer has been observed in 2013 (Bao Thang annual report, 2013) Insect minerspecies have spread significantly over the last few years, and are the insects thatproduce several generations during a year and are natural successors to open leaf-eating insects, playing an important role in weakening trees Increased aridity alsoweakens trees and aggravates insect damage Moreover, certain, mostly negative,changes in stability and viability of forest ecosystems are taking place, particularly inthe productivity of forest tree and non-tree plants Similarly, the effectiveness of forest