Tu hang chl,Jcnam nay,Nha nLidcta van nhat quan cach tfnh toan CPI thang,quy, nam nham ph~manh mQtcach khach quan muc dQ 19mphat, cung cap cho cac co quan quan Iy kinh te nhG'ngso li$u t
Trang 1I!fTP dambao du<;jcthanhtOEmthee gia tr!
tai san dam bao, cac chu n<;jkhong
co dam bao phai du<;jcthanh toan
theoty 1$theo phan khi thu hoi n<;j;
Ve bo sung quy d!nh ve thOng tin,
baocao ket qua thanh Iy cua cac h(>i
dongthanhIy QTDND cho BHTGVN
d§phoih<;jpvatham gia vao hO<;lt
d(mgthanh Iy cac QTDND; Ve vi$c
quydjnh,huangdan ro hem,phu h<;jp
hemcac CC1che, chinh sach lien quan den cong tac thanh Iy QTDND nhu:
xu Iy n<;jkhong co kha nang thu, quy dinh ve chi phi cho hO<;ltd(>ngthanh
Iy, huang dan ve trinh tl,!'va thu t(,lC ket thuc thanh Iy khi khong can kha nang thu n<;jva thanh toan n<;j
- Doi vai cap uy, chinh quyen d!a phuC1ngva B(>Hi chinh, BHTGVN
Trao dol cae thu~t ngii:
kien ngh!: Vi$c quantam chi d<;lodoi vai h(>idong thanh Iy d~ nang cao hi$u qua hO<;ltd(>ngtrong qua trinh thanh Iy; co quy d!nh c(,lth§ ve chi phi cho h(>idong thanh Iy QTDNDde
ap d(,lngthong nhat; vi$c cho phep BHTGVNdu<;jcchi hoa hong, thuong cho cac CC1quan ho tr<;jBHTGVNthu hoi n<;jkho doi cua phan tien da chi tra BHTG
B uacvaonam2004, nen kinh te
nuacta phai doi m$t vai nhieu
kho khan, thach thuc Ian: tMi
tiet khongthu~n, d!ch cum gia eam,
gia ca nhiJng nguyen v~t li$u thiet
yeu nh~p kh~u, IUC1ngthl,!'c- thl,!'C
ph~mtang m<;lnh.NhiJngthach thuc
ayda gay kho khan cho san xuat va
ddi song, ma bi§u hi$n t~p trung la
chi so gia tieu dung (CPI) trong 6
thangdau namtang t6i muc 7,2% so
vdi chi tieu Quoc h(>ithong qua cho
ca namla 5%
Moi quan tam 10lang cua xa h(>i
trudctinh hinhv~t gia lea thang du<;jc
I cac nha nghien cUu, cac nha hO<;lch
d!nhchinhsach gia ca - tien t$ danh
gia ve muc d(>va giai thich 51,!'vi$c
vdi nhieu lu~n di~m khac nhau Co
nhU'ngkhai ni$m rat m6i me ve hi$n
tU<;Jnggia tieu dung gia tang nhu:
L<;ImphatcC1ban, l<;Imphat thl,!'Cchat
(Core Inflation); l<;Imphat phi d~y
(Cost- push inflation); l<;Imphat cau
keo(Demandpull inflation)
NhU'ngthu~t ngiJtren day chi coy
nghia tham khao doi v6i cac nha
nghi€mcUukinh te Can doi v6i cong
chung,dieu ma h9 quan tam la chi
so gia tieu dung gia tang co nghia
lEi-mucl<;Imphattang cao Ma l<;Imphat
I tangthi suc mua cua dong tien, muc
thunh$p,mucsong cua h9 giam sut.
IhlY l\liuh *
KhiLi ni~m v~ chi s6 gia tieu
CPlla chi tieu kinh te quan tr9ng, rat nh<;lycam doi v6i san xuat va deJi song Cach tfnh toan CPI la lay gia vai tram m$t hangthong d(,lngda xac d!nh t<;linhiJngth! trueJngtrong nu6c du<;jcchi d!nhva vao nhiJngtheJidi~m
co d!nh trong thang NhiJng m$t hang da xac d!nhdu<;jcphanto thanh
10 nhom hc'mghoa va d!ch v(,l tieu dung Tren CC1SOnhiJngso li$u thu th~p dU<;jc,Tong c(,lcThong ke tfnh
toan muc tang giam gia tling nhom
hang hoa, djch v(,l,tong h<;jpISlithanh chi so gia tieu dung trong ky ke hO<;lch(thueJngla thang) va so sanh vaj cac tMi dj~m: thang tru6c, cuoi nam truac, cung ky nam truac va ky goc
0 nuac ta, theo truyen thong,
trong tMi ky quan Iy kinh te t~p trung tru6c kia cOngnhu trong cC1che kinh
te th! trueJnghi$n nay, Quoc h(>ivan lay CPliam m(>ttrong nhiJngchi tieu
kinh te quan tr9ng, coi do la muc l<;Im
phat, "thu6c do suc khoe" cua nen kinh te tUng theJi ky (thang, quy, nam) Cac to chuc tai chinh quoc te
cOngsad(,lng chi tieu CPlcua'-ta d~
nghi€mcUu.BOiv~y,tling nganh kinh
te, tUng dja phuC1ng,tUng doanh nghi$p, th~m chi tling ca nhan deu quan tam den chi so gia tieu dung
tUcmuc l<;Imphat BOi"dong tien lien
khuc ru(>t",no lien quan den ket qua kinh doanh cua tling doanh nghi$p, den 51,!'tang giam gia tri tai san (tien
gUingan hang)va mucthu nh~pthl,!'C
51,!'cua tUng ngueJi,tling gia dinh Trong 10 nhom hang cau thanh CPI, tuy theo tfnh thong d(,lngva tam quan tr9ng cua tling nhom hang doi v6i san xuat va deJisong ma Tong c(,lc Thong ke quy dinh cho moi nhom hang m(>tquyen so (ti tr9ng) nhat dinh Vi d(,lnu6cta la nu6c n6ng nghi$p, dan so t6i 80% la nong dan
va chi phi ve IUC1ngthl,!'C,thl,!'Cpham
chiem t6i 60 - 70% muc sinh hO<;lt
hang ngay Cho nen quyen so gia IUClngthuc, thl,!'Cph~m chiem t6i 47,9% CCIcau chi so gia tieu dung trong khi nhom nha 0, v~t li$u xay dl,fngco quyen so 8,2%; nhom duClc ph~m y te la 2,4% Quyen so nay
do CCIquan co th~m quyen tfnh toan m(>t cach khoa h9C d~ quy d!nh, thueJnggilt on d!nh trong m(>ttheJi gian dai, khong CC1quan nao, d!a phuClngnao du<;jctuy ti$n thay doi
.Ha N6i
Trang 2Nhin 19i lich sU', nLidc ta da kinh qua thai ky 19m phat
phi ma (19mphat tdi 3 chG'so) vao nhU'ngnam 1986:
trai qua thai ky giam phat nhLinam 1999: -0,1%; nam
cho nen kinhte Tu hang chl,Jcnam nay,Nha nLidcta van
nhat quan cach tfnh toan CPI thang,quy, nam nham
ph~manh mQtcach khach quan muc dQ 19mphat, cung
cap cho cac co quan quan Iy kinh te nhG'ngso li$u trung
thljC d~ dieu hanh va quan Iy kinh te
KhiLini~m v~ l~m phat cd bim
Thu$t ngG'"L9m phat co ban" da xuat hi$n tren T9P
chiNganhang tU'nam 2000, vdi bai viet "Can co cach
nhin nh$n dung dan khi danh gia 19mphat d Vi$t Nam"
so thang9/2000 cua tac gia Nguyen Dong Tien - Vl,J
trLidng Vl,JChinh sach tien t$
Trong ngon ngG'Vi.$tNam tU'trLidc tdi nay, chi thay noi
den 19m phat, 19m phat phi ma (19m phat tdi 3 chG' so),
sieu 19m phat (19m phat tdi hang tri$u % nhLidDuc sau
the chien II) V$y "L9m phat co ban" la gi? No co y nghTa
nhLi the nao trong vi$c dieu hanh chinh sach tien t$?
Thai bao Kinh te Vi$t Nam so 89, ra ngay 4/6/2004
dang tai bai "Hai goc dQ nhin nh$n 19mpMt" cua tac gia
Nguyen Thu giai thich thu$t ngG'"L9m phat co ban", d9i
ynhLi sau: "Tuy vao phLiong phap do ILi0ng khac nhau,
cac nLidc cong nghi$p tien tien phan bi$t ro rang giG'ati
1$19mphat dLic;1C cong bo rQng rai theo thong 1$(thLiang
la muc dQ thay d5i chi so gia tieu dung vdi ti 1$19mphat
co ban hay can gc;>ila 19mphat thljC chat (t9m dich tU'khai
ni$m tieng Anh "Underlying (Core) Inflation Rate", co
nghTa la ti 1$19m phat da dLic;1c dieu chinh 109ibo nhG'ng
bien dQng nhat thai ve gia ca da lam meo mo vi$c do
ILiang, tinh toan muc 19m phat Do v$y, 19mphat co ban
hay 19mphat thljC chat la "cai loi" cua 19mphat,xuatphat
tU' nguyen nhan tien t$ ( ) Tu nhieu nam nay, tll$ 19m
phat cong bo (ma d9i di$n la CPI cua T5ng Cl,JcThong ke
Vi$t Nam) chLia phan anh dung thljc chat cua 19mphat".
Theo ngLiai viet bai nay, khi Nha nLidc ta chLia ban
hanh nhG'ngtieu thuc mdi ve tinh toan, do ILiang muc 19m
phat, thi CPI do T5ng Cl,JCThong ke cong bo tren cac
phLiong ti$n thong tin d9i chung van la can cu hc;1Pphap
d~ xem xet, do ILiang, so sanh muc dQ 19mphat dien bien
trong tling thai ky Neu mQt nLidc nong nghi$p nhLi nLidc
ta, vdi 80% dan so la n6ng dan, va gia ILiang thljC thljC
pham chiem 60 - 70% muc sinh h09t hang ngay ma khi
tfnh chi so gia tieu dung 19iboc tach gia ILiong thljC, thljc
pham ra (chi vi gia tang dQt xuat),thi vi$c danh gia, nh$n
xet ve 19mphat se sai 19cdi rat nhieu so vdi thljC te cUQc
song.
Moi quan h~ giim CPTvCticac chi tieu kinh te
khac
Gia cac m~t hang, cac dich vl,Jcau thanh CPI len xuong theo quy lu$t cung cau Tuy nhien, nhG'ngbien dQngchinh trL quan slj tren the gidi, nhG'nghanh dQng.c;
dien d9i cua bc;>nkhung bo, nhU'ng quyet dinh gia ca dQc quyen cua nhG'ngt$p doan tLi ban the gidi trang dieu kien kinh te toan cau hoa cOng co anh hLidng den gia ca - tien t$ trang nLidc Do tam quan trc;>ngcua gia ca va tien t$, d!nh hLidng chien ILic;1c cua nganh Ngan hang trang ke h09ch 2001 -2005 la: "Xay dljng va thljC hi$n chinh sach
tien t$ nham 5n dinh kinh te vTmo, ki~m soat 19m phat, thuc day san xuat va tieu dung, kich thich dau tLi, t90 dieu ki$n cho tang trLidng kinh te cao va ben vG'ng".
Tu dinh hLidng chien ILic;1C cua nganh Ngan hang da
cho thaymoi quan h$ m$t thiet giG'a 19m phat va tang
trLidng kinh te Bieu thong ke duai clay noi len moi quan
h$ giG'a2 chi tieu quan trc;>ngnay trong nhG'ng nam dau
Trong 3 nam 2001 - 2003, toc dQ tang trLidng GDP thLiang thap hon ml,Jctieu ke h09ch Muc thljC hi$n 19m phat cang thap hon so vdi chi tieu Quoc hQi da thong qua NhLing 6 thang dau nam 2004, trang khi toc dQ tang trLidng GDP chLia co chuy~n bien tot, thi muc 19mphat 19i tang qua nhanh Slj mat can doi nay doi hoi toc dQ tang trLidng kinh te 6 thang cuoi nam 2004 phai d9t 7,7% -8,3% Dong thai phai co nhU'ng giai phap tichCljC kiem che 19mphat thi mdi co th~ I$p 19ithe can doi giG'atang trLidng kinh te va 19m phat Theo kinh nghi$m cua cac nLidc kinh te phat tri~n, muc 19mphat thap hon muc tang trLidng kinh te chung 2% la Iy tLidng; do la chat dau boi tron cho guong may kinh te v$n hanh troi chay.
L9m phat dang la moi quan tam 10lang cua toan xa
hQi.Yeu cau d~t ra la dLidislj lanh d90 cua Chinh phu,
cac cap, cac nganh can doc suc thuc day san xuat kinh doanh phat tri~n, tiet ki$m nguyen v$t li$u, tiet giam mc;>i chi phi san xuat va IL(uthong, tiet ki$m chi tieu ngan sach d~ ca nLidc d9t toc dQ tang trLidng tU'7,7 - 8,3% trong 6
thang cuoi nam, dong thai co gang giam 19mphat xuong muc co th~ Con nhU'ngthu$t ngG'mdi ve 19mphat va cac thLidc do 19m phat xin d~ t5 chuc tranh luan trang cae
cUQc hQi tRao khoa hc;>c
Muc tang trLibng Muc 19mphat
Ml,Jctieu ThljC Ml,jc ThljC
hi$n tieu hi$n