~ .KINHNGHIEMCUAPHILIPPINES L~mphatCC1ban la thuac do dU... "tal ,cHiNN> tllJO.
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.KINHNGHIEMCUAPHILIPPINES
L~mphatCC1ban la thuac do dU<;Jc
SLtdl:mg r('>ngrai d~ danh gia xu
huang CC1ban hay diEmbien chung
cua gia tieu dung binh quan L~m
phat CC1ban nam bat xu huang dai
h~n ho~c ph5 bien cua gia ca hang
hoa hay d!ch Vl,Jbang cach lo~i tru
nhCtngtac dQngcua nhCtngcC1nsac
hay bien dQng nhat thOi trong muc
gia tieu dung binh quan, noi chung
gan vai I~m phat chi so gia tieu dung
CPI
L~ phat cd ban khac
voi CPI nhu the nao?
Ve nguyentac, CPI gan vai tll$
thay d5i chi so CPI do CC1quanthong
ke cong bo, nham nam bat nhCtng
thay d5i trong muc gia sinh ho~t cua
.nguai dan dl/a tren CC1sa dien bien
gia binh quan cua mQtr5 hang hoa
va d!ch vl,JdU<;JcchQnma mQthQgia
dinh thongthuang co th~ tieu thl,J
Ngu<;JcI~i,I~mphatcC1ban lo~i tru
nhCtngnhom hang hoa va d!ch vl,J
nhat dinh trong chi so CPI chung ma
gia ca cua cac lo~i hang hoa va d!ch
vl,Jnay, noi chung la co nhCtngbien
dQngnhat thai trong ngan h~n L~m
phat CC1ban bi~u hi$n xu huang I~m
phat dai h~n (ngu<;Jcvai nhCtngdao
dQngtrong ngan h~n)co th~ chiu tac
dQngtrl/Ctiep bai chfnh sach kinh te,
d~c bi$t la chfnh sach tien t$ L~m
phat cC1ban dong vai tra nhu mQtchi
tieu b5 sung hCtufch doi vai I~m phat
CPI, cung cap thong tin ve xu huang
dai h~n cua gia tieu dungva dU<;JCSLt
dl,Jngnhu mQt chi so ve I~m phat
tUC1nglai
T~i sao chung ta c~n
do luong I~m phat cd
L~m phat CPI thuang n.h~ycam
Nld)t Trung *
vai nhCtngnhan to nam ngoai yang ki~m soat cua chfnh sach kinh te va
co xu huang de bien dQng, bai vi nhCtngcC1nsac hay nhCtngroi lo~n nhat thOitrong mQtkhu vl/c cua nen kinhte lamcho no I$chkh6ixu huang dai h~n.6 Philippines, sl/ bien dQng cua I~m phat CPI co th~ do nhieu nguyen nhan nhu nhCtngroi lo~n ve cung IUC1ngthl/C nong nghi$p hay nhCtngbiendQngcua gia dau tren the giai Vi v~y, co th~ co nhCtngnhom m~t hang, I~m phat CPI d~t muc 2 chCtso m~cdu da so gia ca cacthanh phanCPIkhac chi co muc tang nhE?
Trong nhCtngtruang h<;Jpnhu v~y,tll$
I~mphatCPI co th~ khongcan la mQt chi so tin c~y ve xu huangchung cua gia ca MQtcach thuc do I~mphat CC1 ban thfchh<;Jpco th~ chi ra xu huang CC1ban hay ph5 bien cua gia ca Dieu nay, den IU<;Jtminh, co th~ gap phan cung cap m('Jtchi tieu danh gia tot hC1nve thl/C tr~ng t5ng th~ cua nen kinh te
HC1nnCta,nhCtngCC1nsac nhat thai trong gia dau va IUC1ngthl/Cva nhCtng roi lo~n tUC1ngtl/ khac thuang lien quan den nhCtngnhan to vecung
NhCtngnhanto nay co xu huang nam ngoai ki~m soat cua chfnh sach tien t$ thuang t~p trung vao cac nhan to anh huang den t5ng cau
L~m phat cC1ban cOngdU<;Jcxem nhu m('Jtchi so tot ve cac xu huang hi$n t~i va tUC1nglai trong I~m phat CPl No giup cac nha ho~ch d!nh chinh sach xac dinh li$u nhCtngdien bien gia tieu dung hi$n t~i la nhCtng roi lo~n t~m thai hay lam('Jtphancua
xu huang thuang xuyen hC1n.Nam bat dU<;JCdieu nay sa la m('Jtthong tin dau vao quan trQng d~ xay dlfng chfnh sach kinh te, d~c bi$t la.chfnh
~
sach tien t$
L;pn phat cd ban du«/c tinh ho~c xay dt;ing nhti the nao?
Co nhieu phuC1ngphap do Iuang I~m phat CC1ban PhuC1ngphap ph5 bien nhat dU<;Jcnhieu quoc gia SLt
dl,Jng la phuC1ngphap lo~i tru PhuC1ngphap lo~i tru tfnh toan I~m phat CC1ban bang cach lo~i tru gia ca cua m('Jtso nhom m~t hang kh6i r5 CPI Cac thanhphan lo~itru la nhCtng nhom m~t hangde biend('Jng hay nh~y cam vai nhCtngroi lo~n ve cung
va thong thuang bao gom cac nhom m~t hang IUC1ngthl/c - thl/c pham va
sa th! truang cac nhomm~thang neu tren de g~p nhCtngcC1nsac ve cung
MQt so nha kinh te de nghi SLt
dl,JngphuC1ngphap dl/a tren cC1sa thong ke d~ lo~i bo tac d('Jngcua nhCtngthay d5i thai qua cua gia ca (ca 2 chieu tang va giam) den tll$ I~m phat chung Nhom m~t hang bi lo~i tru thay d5i hang thang, phl,J thu('Jcvao sl/ bien d('Jngm~nh ve gia
ca cua m~t hang do Cac phuC1ng phap do Iuang thong ke ph5 bien nhat la phuC1ngphap binh quan co dieu chlnh (trimmed mean) va phuC1ngphap trung vi co quyen so (weighted median) Ca 2 phuC1ng
phap deu xuat phat W vi$c xep h~ng
nhCtngthay d5i gia ca cua cac nhom
m~t hang rieng bi$t W cao nhat den thap nhat (ho~c W chieu dUC1ngsang am) trong moi thang PhuC1ngphap binh quan co dieu chlnh lay tll$ I~m phat binh quan sau khi lo~i tru m('Jttl 1$ phan tram nhat d!nh cua nhCtng thay d5i gia ca qua muc (theo chieu tang ho~c giam) Trong khi do,
Trang 2Tiu CHI"H
don gian chi lay ti 1$ I<?m pMt trung vI.
tl10ng U'ngvoi quyen so CPI c(mg don
la 50% tU'thu h<?ngcao nhat den thap
nhat
COng co the su dt:mg kTthu~t kinh
t8 1l1<;1ng de danh gia I<?mphat COban
bang cach danh gia hay xac dinh moi
quan h$ thong ke giG'a I<?mphat va
cac bien kinh te lien quan khac Sau
do dung mo hinh hoi quy de danh gia
I<?mphat co ban thOng qua vi$c dl1a
vao cac dG'li$u thlfc te cua cac bien
so khac trong mo hinh.
aPhilippines, vi$c do ll1ang chinh
thuc I<?m phat CO ban dl1<;1CthlfC hi$n
theo phl10ng phap lo<?itrLt Vi$c Ilfa
ch9n phuong phap nay xuat phat tU'
m(>t so Ii do sau: de xay dlfng; de
hieu doi voi cong chung; de kiem tra;
. tang trach nhi$m va tinh minh b<?ch
trong do ll1ang; va kip thai.
Kinh nghi~m eua cae'
nude v~ l~ phat cd ban
Cae nLtO'ekhSe co kiem soat
I{lm phat eC1ban kh6ng?
Hau het cac COquan thong ke d
cac nUocdeu cong bo cach do Iuang
I<?mphat cO ban Doi voi cac Ngan
hang Trung l10ng(NHTV) vi$c kiem
soat I<?mphat COban da tro thanh
m(>tthong 1$ quoc te, khong phl,l
thu(>cvao khuon kh6 chinh sach tien
t$ ma h9 su dl,lng.Vi dl,l,cac NHTU
khong thlfC hi$nchfnh sach tien t$
l<ilmphat ml,lc tieu nhl1 FED, NHTU
Nh~t Ban (Bank of Japan) va Co
quan tien t$ Singapore cOng kiem
soat l<ilm phat CO ban.
Cae nU'O'e khSe do IU'O'ng I{lm
phSt nhU'the' nao?
Nhieu nUoc tren the giai sudl,lng
phuong phap 10<ilitrLt va xac d!nh l<ilm
phat COban bang cach 10<ilitrLt khoi
chI so gia chung nhG'ngtac d(>ngcua
cac con soc nhl1nhG'ngthay d6i trong
chfnh sach thue, tI gia, lai suat va
nhG'ngnhom hang co xu huang bien
d(>ng theo mua vy NhG'ngnhom
hang thl1ang b! 10<ili trLttrong tinh toan
I<?mphat COban la IUong thlfC - thlfC
pham va nang IU<;1ng b9i vi chung la
nhG'ng thanh phan co truyen thong
hay bien d(>ng trong r6 CPI chung.
Canada ch~ng h<iln,10<ilitrLt ll10ng
thlfC -thlfC pham, nang IU<;1ngva tac d(mg cua thue gian thu, trong khi do,
My10<ili trLtIuong thlfc-thlfC pham va ni:lng IU<;1ng Thai Lan thi 10<ilitrLtgia
ni:lng 1l1<;1ng va thlfC pham tl10i song,
con Anh va New Zealand chI 10f,li trLt cac khofm phi tra lai Peru 10f,li trLt 9 nhom hang de bien dQng, bao gom:
Iuong thlfc -thlfc pham, trai cay, rau
qua, va v~n chuyendo th! chiem
khoang 21,2% trong r6 CPI Trong khi do, Chile sudl,lng phuong phap thong ke va xac d!nh I<?mphat COban
dQng theo chieu giam cao nhat va 8% theo chieu ti:lngcao nhat BangdUaikhaiquat cach tinhl<ilm
phat co ban chinh thuc dU<;1C ap dl,lng
amQt so nUac cOng nhU cac cach tinh khac ma NHTU cua cac nU'acd6
nQibQ
pham, nang Iuc;mgva thue gian de bien d(>ngnhat (16%)
Trimmed Mean (15%)
song va nang IU<;1ng(23%)
WeightMedian
New Zealand CPllof,litJit chi phi tra lai
Singapore CPI 10f,litJitchi phi vn chuyen CPI 10f,litru cac nhom hang
duang b9 tlf nhan va chi phi de bien d(>ng (30%).
Trimmed Median (15%)
Mo hinh tlf hoi quy (VAR) Nht Ban CPI 10f,li tJit thlfC pham tUc:1i
song
bien dQng (thlfc phc3m,hoa qua
khoang 21,2%)
pham va nang Ilfgng
bien thien giam cao nhat va 8%
voi nhCmgbien thien tang cao nhat
Colombia CPI 10f,li tJit IUc:1ngthlfC- thlfC
pham nong nghi$p, dich vl,l c6ng va vn chuyen
Tay Ban Nha CPI 10f,litru nang Ilfgng va thlfC
pham chua qua che bien
Ha Lan CPI 10f,litrLt hoa qua, rau, va
nanglugng
qua che bien va nang Ilfgng
Trang 3"tal ,cHiNN> tllJO fA"NGUillN6HEO
'; ,,<; ,:," \\"," ',>~C'v' ' ,;",;",' "',i:
,ngu'C1ingMo cGng c6 nhu,C,8u ,,",'.: " ,":' ':
i ",.' v~/sadl:mgnhieu 10<;1ihihbd[ch chf~~chfnh',thuiithi§ac:h~J~?n!!lpl1i,
vl;J.t~ichfnh, bao gom tiengl(i,Eho c.hfnhthuchhLfcaCn(>iti~tki$m"vatin'
vayva cac d!ch vI,)tai chfnhkM~, Ho dl,)ng,nhiifi'g ngl/C1i<?ho,vay"ti~n va
sa dl,)ng cac d!ch,VI,) taichfp;h ~i ca; ~i~~,h(>i~boo~hi~m-,tl/Ong'tr~)a,n
nhCtngIfdo tl/ong tl,fnhl/ bat kirf1(>tai to~ 0 hau,het, ~~c rJ.U'dcdangPh9,t,
khac:nham namibat cac eOhOik{nh triem.Ngl/C1ingMo cJjngc6 th~ vj$D'
doanh; xay dl,fng, ho~n thie~ nha den cac tai san'khac cua h9 nhl/,y~t
caa;trang trai cac:khoa~chi tieti)IOn nuoi,v~t Ii~uxay dlfngva tien m~fcat,
h~p khfin cap nhl/"mat mua, dich Ho~c nhl/ m(>t nong dan ngh~q c6"
b$nh, ma chay, cl/oi hoL Trang th~ tMchap cacvI,)lhu hO<;1c,h,trang,
nhieuthe ki, ngl/C1ingheo da den voi tl/ong lai d~ mua;phanb6.ntren,cd s~,
I nhacung ung dg thoa man cac nhu tin dl,)ngWcac ngl/di ban Ie.' '
cautai chfnh cua minh Trang khi da Tuy nhi~n,'cac d!ChVI,)tai chinh
I s6 ngl/C1ingheo kh6 co th~ tiep c~n doi voi ngl/C1ingheo thl/C1ngbj h~n
sa dl,)ngn('>ib('>
(Xembang trang trtlde).
Cac nha hO<;lchdjnh chinh sach
sti dlJng l<;Imphcit ctYban nhLf thlf
nao?
Phan Ion cac to chuc thong ke sa
d~ngI~mphatcOban nhl/ m(>tchi so
bo sung cho chi so l<;1mphat CPI va
cong bo cung voj chi so I~m phat
CPI M(>tso NHTW hl/ong den ml,)c
tieul<;1mphat nhl/ Canada,Sec, Phan
Lan, Thai Lan, Nam Phi va Han
.Quoc, dung l<;1mpMt CO ban voi tl/
cach la ml,)ctieu ho~t d(>ngd~ xay
I dlfngchinh sach tien t$
chinh thuc d Philippines
Djnh nghia chinh thLic ve' l<;Im
phat ctYban,
a Philippines, djnh ngh'ia l<;1m
phat cOban chfnhthuc da dl/<;1ccong
b6 Nam 2003, H(>idong Dieu phoi
Thong ke quoc gia (NSCB) da pM
chu€in d!nh nghia chfnh thuc va
phLtOngphap lu~n xac d!nh I~m phat
Cd ban a Philippines bang phl/ong
phap10<;1i tn! Theo do, trong khil<;1m
phat CPI dl/<;1C tinh theo bien d(>ng
hang nam cua chi so CPI chung thi
xac d!nh theo ti 1$thay doi cua I~m pMt CPI sau khi 10<;1itn! cac nhom hang Il/ong thl,fCva nang ILt~ng
T<;Ii sao phLfl1ng phap 10<;litrit dU't1cItftJ chc;m de xac djnh l<;Im
phcit ctYban?
Phl/Ongphap 10<;1itrlt dl/<;1cch9n bai vi: (1) de hi~u hOn so voi cac phl/ong phap khac; (2) minh b~ch hon va ai cOngco th~ tinh dl/<;1Cde dangtlt cac dlt li~u ve CPI; (3) co th~
tfnh trang cung thC1iki voi I~m pMt CPI; va (4) phu hc;Jpvoi thOng1$quoc
te ve vi$c 10<;1itrlt cac thanh phan ILtongthl,fCva nang 1l/<;1ngtrang CPI
Dol<;1mphat COban la m(>tkhai ni$m tl/ong doi moi doi voi cong chung, cac nha ho~ch d1nhchfnh sach tin tl/ang rang Hnhdon gian cua phl/ong phap lo~i trlt c6 th~ lam cho cong chung de hi~u hon va W do, gop phan gay dl,fng sl,f tin nhi~m trong vi$c sa dl,)ngI~mphat cOban
NhCing nhom hang nao dU't1c
10<;litrit khi tinh l<;Imphcit ctYban?
NhCtng nhom hang dLt<;1c 10<;1i tn!
khi xac d!nh l<;1m pMt COban dl,fatren COsb danh ml,)c cac thanh phan cua
W£~~~UIS CPI va tr9ng so cua chungtrong CPI tl/ong ung (2000 =100),do la:
G~o (9,4%);
NgOcoc (0,9%);
Hoa qua va rau (5,3%);
LPG (1,3%);
Dau laa (0,3%);
Dau, xang, diezen (1,3%) Toan b(> cac khoan ml,)Ctren chiem 18,4% trang CPI Danh ml,)c cac khoan ml,)c lo~i trlt sa dl/<;1c NSCB va Uy ban thong ke v~t gia xem xet lai moi khi cac dlt lieu ve CPI
Cty quan Chinh phu nao c6ng b6' cac dCi'Ii~u l<;Imphcit cty ban
chinh thLic?
NSOtinhtoanvacongboti 1$I~m
phat COban chfnh thuc cung vOjtJI~ I~m pMt CPI
L<;Imphcit cty ban co the thay
the'l<;Imphat CPI hay kh6ng?
L~m phat COban khOngth~ thay the cho l<;1mphat CPI N6 dl/<;1csa dl,)ngnhl/ m(>tchi tieu b6 sung ve dien bien gia ca chung cuahang hoa
va d!ch Vl,)
Nguon:Website euaNHTUPhilippines
www.bsp.gov.pb.
khongthu~n ti$n Tien m~t cat gilt t~i gia co th~ b! mat cap va giam gia tr!
vi I~m phat M(>tcon be khong thg chia nho va ban tU'nggoi d~ dap ung
cac nhu cau tien mi;ita quy mo nho.
M(>tso lo~i tin dl,)ng,d~c bi$t la tlt nhltng ngLtC1icho vay tien, co chi phf rat cao Cac h(>itiet ki$m va tin dl,)ng thi day rui ro va thl/<'1ngkhong co nhieu sl! linh hO<;1tve khoi 1l/<;1nghay tMi h~n cua cac khoan tien gillva
cho vay Tai khoan tien gill yeu cau m(>tso 1l/<;1ngtoi thi~u va co th~ c6 nhiing quy dinh rut ra cling nhac.Cac khoan cho vay cua cactochuc chfnh thuc thllC1ngdei hoi tai san the chap
.H9C vi~n Toi chinh