Conservation of plant species under future climate and land use change

AA0107 6 New Guinea montane forests AA0120 6 New Guinea montane forests AT0905 6 Sudd-Sahelian flooded grasslands and savannas NA0529 6 Southeastern conifer and broadleaf forests NT0904

APPENDIX 1 – ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF TOTAL AND ENDEMIC SPECIES DATA USED IN ANALYSES

Croatian Environment Agency and European Environmental Agency 2007 Fourth

Pan-European environment assessment Belgrade 2007 Report - Indicator Fact Sheet -

Theme Biodiversity

Esekin, B K., K N Karibaeva, S V Kim, S Zh Daukeev 2000 State of biological

diversity of The Republic of Kazakhstan [WWW document] URL

http://enrin.grida.no/biodiv/biodiv/national/kazakh/index.htm Accessed March

2009

IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) & RAS (Russian Academy

of Sciences) 2002 Land Resources of Russia CD [WWW document] URL

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/FOR/russia_cd/guide.htm Accessed March 2009

Japan Society for Plant Systematist Undated Flora of Japan [WWW document] URL

Available from http://foj.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp/gbif Accessed March 2009

Kukk, T Personal communication

Ministry for the Protection of the Natural Resources and Environment, Republic of

Serbia 2000 State of the Environment in 2000 and priorities in 2001+ for Serbia

[WWW document] URL Aaccessed March 2009

http://enrin.grida.no/htmls/yugo/serb/index.htm

Ministry of Environment and Territorial Arrangement 2000 State of the Biological

Diversity -Republic of Moldova [WWW document] URL

http://enrin.grida.no/biodiv/biodiv/national/moldova/index.htm Accessed March

2009

Ministry of Nature Protection of The Republic of Armenia 2000 State of the

Environment of Armenia 2000 [WWW document] URL

http://enrin.grida.no/htmls/armenia/soe2000/eng/ Accessed March 2009

Ministry of Nature Protection of The Republic of Armenia 2003 National Report on the

State of the Environment of Armenia 2002 [WWW document] URL

http://www.unece.org/env/europe/monitoring/Armenia/index.html Accessed

March 2009

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in Ukraine [WWW document] URL

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%20Dreamweaver/PT%20website%20country%20pages/country/ukraine.html

Accessed May 2009

Rasomavicius, V Personal communication

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Republic of Macedonia 2000 [WWW document] URL

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2009

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Environment 2004 National Biosafety Framework for Suriname [WWW

document] URL http://www.unep.org/Biosafety/files/SRNBFrep.pdf Accessed

March 2009

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http://enrin.grida.no/htmls/tadjik/soe2001/eng Accessed March 2009

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biodiversity [WWW document] URL

http://www.cbd.int/countries/profile.shtml?country=td#status Accessed May 2009

Webb, D A 1983 The flora of Ireland in its European context Journal of Life Sciences,

Royal Dublin Society 4: 143–160

APPENDIX 2 – SUPPLEMENTARY TABLES

Table S1 Generalized linear models (GLM) investigating whether an increase in area decreases the odds of endangerment given that odds of endemism are kept constant GLM are ranked by quasi-Akaike‟s model weights (wQAICc ) which represents the probability of the model being the best in the candidate set THR represents the log- transformed odds of endangerment [loge (number of endangered species ÷ number of non-endangered species)] END represents the log-transformed odds of endemism [loge

(number of endemic species ÷ number of non-endemic species) AREA represents

transformed area of a country Shown also are the number of parameters (K), likelihood (LL), estimated overdispersion parameter (c-hat) of the global model, quasi-

log-Akaike‟s Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (QAICc), difference between the top-ranked models QAICc and that of the model under consideration (∆QAICc), and percent deviance explained by each model (%DE)

Model K LL c-hat QAICc ΔQAICc wQAICc %DE

THR ~ 0.50*END + 0.36*AREA – 6.17 4 –1284.09 82.90 40.46 0.000 0.675 48.62% THR ~ 0.61*END – 1.53 3 –1453.56 82.90 41.92 1.46 0.325 41.38% THR ~ 0.51*AREA – 9.50 3 –1996.14 82.90 55.01 14.55 0.000 18.19%

Table S2 List of countries ranked by the current endangerment index of plant species

"ISO" is the three letter country code defined in the International Organization of Standardization (ISO) 3166-1 to represent each country/territory "LON" and "LAT" represent the longitude and latitude values of the country‟s centroid, respectively “TROP” is

a binary variable – "1" if a country is considered to be tropical (country‟s centroid falls between 23.5° N and 23.5° S), "0" if a country is considered to be temperate (country‟s centroid falls outside of 23.5° N and 23.5° S)."BH" is a binary variable - "1" if a country overlaps with a biodiversity hotspot, "0" if otherwise "AREA" represents the total area of a country in km2 "SPP" and

"END" represent the total number of species and endemic species, respectively "EI" represents the current endangerment index - residuals of the log-log species-area relationship (SAR) regression model

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Table S3 Spearman’s rank-order correlations (and P-values) between current plant species endangerment index and

future habitat loss projected under the four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios (Adapting Mosaic [AM], Global

Orchestration [GO], Order from Strength [OS], and TechnoGarden [TG]) Correlations with P < 0.05 are in bold-face

Scenarios Hotspot countries Non-hotspot

Climate

change-driven habitat loss

(P = 0.625)

-0.296 (P = 0.048)

Table S4 List of countries ranked in terms of conservation need (CN.GNI - conservation need based on economic

condition; CN.GOV ― conservation need based on quality of governance) in descending order Countries were classed into

five categories of conservation need (Category 1: highest conservation need, to Category 5: lowest conservation need) "ISO" is

the three letter country code defined in the International Organization of Standardization (ISO) 3166-1 to represent each

country/territory "GNI" is the average per capita gross national income adjusted for purchasing power parity in international

dollars for years 2003-2007 "GOV" is the measure of governance quality for the same time period "EI" represents the current

endangerment index - residuals of the log-log species-area relationship (SAR) regression model and "pEI" is the corresponding

percentile value "CLIM" is my metric for climate change-driven habitat loss (i.e.,the average area projected to undergo

transformation from one natural land-cover category to another under the four socioeconomic scenarios to the year 2050

expressed as a percentage of the total land area of a country) "LUC" is my metric for future habitat loss owing to land-use change (the average area projected to be converted via human land-use change divided under the four scenarios to year 2050 expressed as

a percentage of total land area) "COM" is my metric for total habitat loss (CLIM + LUC) and "pCOM" is the corresponding

percentile value "FE" is the score for the future plant species endangerment derived from taking the arithmetric mean of the

percentile values of current endangerment index and total habitat loss "FE.RNK" is the rank of countries based on the score for

future plant species endangerment Dash cells represent missing values

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Table S5 Full dataset used in allocating the relative conservation assessment need of ecoregions CODE = WWF ecoregion

code of each ecoregion CAT = category of relative need outlined in Methods AREA = area in km2 of each ecoregion PHBL = area of natural habitat lost, expressed as a proportion of total terrestrial area of each ecoregion, while pPHBL = corresponding percentile value PDC = human population density change (% change per annum) and pPDC = corresponding percentile value RPLT = number of plant species in each ecoregion, and pRPLT = the corresponding percentile value of plant species richness after controlling for the effect of area using multi-model SAR predictions A list of ecoregions excluded from the analysis is

presented at the end of the table

List of ecoregions excluded due to missing data:

AA0109, AA0114, AA0401, AA1101, AT0113, AT0120, AT0127, AT0201, AT0703, AT0720, AT0802, AT0803, AT1301, AT1308, IM0110, IM0148, NT0116, NT0123, NT0172, NT0216, NT0401, NT0403, NT0705, NT1311, OC0102, OC0103, OC0104, OC0107, OC0108, OC0111, OC0112, OC0113, OC0114, OC0115, OC0116, OC0117, OC0703, PA0403, PA0425, PA0807, PA1203

Table S6 List of ecoregions and their respective overlapping Biodiversity Hotspots and Global 200 ecoregions „CAT‟

refers to categories of relative need described in Methods and in Figure 6 (main text)

AA0708 8 Northern Australia and Trans-Fly savannas

AA0107 6 New Guinea montane forests AA0120 6 New Guinea montane forests AT0905 6 Sudd-Sahelian flooded grasslands and savannas NA0529 6 Southeastern conifer and broadleaf forests NT0904 6 Everglades Flooded Grasslands

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PA0422 5 Caucasus-Anatolian-Hyrcanian temperate forests Caucasus, Mediterranean Basin

AA0105 5 New Guinea montane forests AA0128 5 Southern New Guinea lowland forests AA1002 5 Central Range subalpine grasslands

AT0715 4 Horn of Africa Acacia Savannas

Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa, Eastern Afromontane, Horn of Africa

NA0303 4 Sierra Madre Oriental and Occidental pine-oak forests Madrean Pine-Oak Woodlands, Mesoamerica

PA0407 4 Caucasus-Anatolian-Hyrcanian temperate forests Caucasus, Irano-Anatolian

AA0122 4 Southern New Guinea lowland forests AA0127 4 New Guinea montane forests AA0402 4 Eastern Asutralia Temperate Forests AA0409 4 Eastern Asutralia Temperate Forests AA1302 4 Great Sandy-Tanami-Central Ranges desert AT0904 4 Sudd-Sahelian flooded grasslands and savannas IM0171 4 Taiwan montane forests

IM0172 4 Taiwan montane forests IM0901 4 Rann of Kutch flooded grasslands NA0413 4 Southeastern conifer and broadleaf forests NT0126 4 Amazon River and Flooded Forests NT0138 4 Amazon River and Flooded Forests PA0804 4 Daurian/Mongolian steppe

Eastern Afromontane, Guinean Forests of West Africa, Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa, Eastern Afromontane

NA0302 3 Sierra Madre Oriental and Occidental pine-oak forests Madrean Pine-Oak Woodlands, Mesoamerica

PA0408 3 Caucasus-Anatolian-Hyrcanian temperate forests Caucasus, Irano-Anatolian PA0420 3 Mediterranean Forests, Woodlands and Scrub Caucasus, Irano-Anatolian, Mediterranean Basin

AA1203 3 Southern Australia Mallee and Woodlands AA1206 3 Southern Australia Mallee and Woodlands

IM0203 3 Chhota-Nagpur dry forests NA0402 3 Appalachian and Mixed Mesophytic forests NA0403 3 Appalachian and Mixed Mesophytic forests

NT0141 3 Amazon River and Flooded Forests

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AT0125 2 East African coastal forests

Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa, Eastern Afromontane, Horn of Africa

NT0307 2 Sierra Madre Oriental and Occidental pine-oak forests Madrean Pine-Oak Woodlands

PA0515 2 Caucasus-Anatolian-Hyrcanian temperate forests Caucasus, Irano-Anatolian, Mediterranean Basin

PA1008 2 Caucasus-Anatolian-Hyrcanian temperate forests Caucasus, Irano-Anatolian

AA0117 2 Queensland Tropical Forests AA0701 2 Northern Australia and Trans-Fly savannas AA0703 2 Northern Australia and Trans-Fly savannas AA0704 2 Northern Australia and Trans-Fly savannas AA1001 2 Eastern Asutralia Temperate Forests AA1208 2 Southern Australia Mallee and Woodlands AA1304 2 Great Sandy-Tanami-Central Ranges desert AT0726 2 Central and Eastern Miombo woodlands AT0903 2 Sudd-Sahelian flooded grasslands and savannas AT1316 2 Namib-Karoo-Kaokoveld Deserts and Shrublands NA0506 2 Pacific temperate rainforests

NA0610 2 Muskwa/Slave Lake Boreal Forests NT0124 2 Guianan Highlands Moist Forests NT0132 2 Rio Negro-Jurua Moist Forests NT0143 2 Rio Negro-Jurua Moist Forests

NT0156 2 Amazon River and Flooded Forests NT0157 2 Southwestern Amazonian Moist Forests NT0169 2 Guianan Highlands Moist Forests PA0502 2 Altai-Sayan montane forests PA0504 2 European-Mediterranean montane forests PA0813 2 Daurian/Mongolian steppe

PA1001 2 Altai-Sayan montane forests PA1016 2 Altai-Sayan montane forests PA1110 2 Fenno-Scandia alpine tundra and taiga PA1316 2 Altai-Sayan montane forests

AT0711 1 East African Acacia Savannas

Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa, Eastern Afromontane, Horn of Africa

AT1314 1 Namib-Karoo-Kaokoveld Deserts and Shrublands

Cape Floristic Region, Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany, Succulent Karoo

AT1322 1 Namib-Karoo-Kaokoveld Deserts and Shrublands Cape Floristic Region, Succulent Karoo

NT0404 1 Valdivian Temperate Rain Forests / Juan Fernandez Islands Chilean Winter Rainfall and Valdivian Forests

PA0507 1 Caucasus-Anatolian-Hyrcanian temperate forests Caucasus, Irano-Anatolian

AA0411 1 Tasmanian Temperate Rainforests AA0412 1 Eastern Asutralia Temperate Forests AA0413 1 Tasmanian Temperate Rainforests AA0705 1 Northern Australia and Trans-Fly savannas AA0706 1 Northern Australia and Trans-Fly savannas AA1207 1 Southern Australia Mallee and Woodlands AA1303 1 Great Sandy-Tanami-Central Ranges desert

AT0104 1 Central Congo Basin moist forests

AT0110 1 Central Congo Basin moist forests AT0126 1 Western Congo Basin moist forests AT0129 1 Western Congo Basin moist forests AT0801 1 Arabian Highlands woodlands and shrublands AT1310 1 Namib-Karoo-Kaokoveld Deserts and Shrublands AT1315 1 Namib-Karoo-Kaokoveld Deserts and Shrublands IM0111 1 Eastern Deccan plateau moist forests

NA0520 1 Pacific temperate rainforests NA0525 1 Pacific temperate rainforests NA0606 1 Canadian boreal taiga NA0612 1 Canadian boreal taiga NA0613 1 Muskwa/Slave Lake Boreal Forests NA0614 1 Canadian boreal taiga

NA1103 1 Alaskan North Slope coastal tundra NA1104 1 Alaskan North Slope coastal tundra NA1114 1 Canadian Low Arctic tundra

NT0133 1 Southwestern Amazonian Moist Forests NT0158 1 Amazon River and Flooded Forests NT0163 1 Rio Negro-Jurua Moist Forests NT0182 1 Guianan Highlands Moist Forests

PA0438 1 Russian Far East broadleaf and mixed forests PA0443 1 Russian Far East broadleaf and mixed forests PA0519 1 Altai-Sayan montane forests

PA0601 1 Central and Eastern Siberian taiga PA0603 1 Kamchatka taiga and grasslands PA0604 1 Kamchatka taiga and grasslands PA0610 1 Ural mountains taiga and Tundra PA0815 1 Altai-Sayan montane forests PA1104 1 Chukhote coastal tundra PA1105 1 Kamchatka taiga and grasslands PA1106 1 Fenno-Scandia alpine tundra and taiga PA1107 1 Taimyr and Russian coastal tundra PA1111 1 Taimyr and Russian coastal tundra PA1113 1 Chukhote coastal tundra