Climate change and variability in vietnam and strategiesto be addapted on agriculture for sustainable development

Climate change and variability in vietnam and strategiesto be addapted on agriculture for sustainable development

CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY

IN VIETNAM AND STRATEGIESTO BE

ADDAPTED ON AGRICULTURE

FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

By Ass.Prof.Dr Nguyen Van Viet Agrometeorologycal research centre

As seen in Figure climate change,

desertification and loss of biological

diersity are intimately conected to

one another- they overlap and

affect, and are affectedby,

eachother

Studies of climate change and variability in Vietnam and strategies of sustainable development on

Agriculture we have analyzed the following

METHODOLOGY AND DATA

Agrometeorology

Ago-economic region:

+ North mountain and midland

+ Red river delta

+ North central

+ South central

+ Central plateau

+ North eat south

+ Mekong river delta

ASSESSMENT CLIMATE CHANGE AND

VARIABILITY IN VIETNAM

1 Air average temperature.Long term variation and trend of temperature in January, July and annual over last 35 years are increased about 0.2-1oC

2 The dates of beginning and ending temperatures through 20oC, 25oC

The dates of beginning and ending temperatures through

calendar and crop rotation , especially for defining the

growing period for Agriculture in the North and in the Mountain regions

3 Absolute minimum temperature

Absolute minimum temperature is very important for distribution of perennial plant such as industrial crop coffee , rubber , tea and fruit trees such as lemon , orange, banana, longan, litchi

4 Sunshine duration

Sunshine duration are decrease excepts the south central region and high mountain in central region (see table 5)

5 Rainfall

The situation of rainfall is some what complex depending

on locations and seasons In annual and summer season (May - October) small decreasing trend is found at station Hai duong, Ha noi (Red river delta region), Vinh (North

central region), Can tho and Bac Lieu (Mekong river delta)

On the other hand, in winter-spring season rainfall is

increasing trend which observed at Bac Giang, Ha noi,

Nam dinh, Vinh, Playku, Saigon

6 Typhoon visit in Vietnam

Annual number of typhoon visit in Vietnam the period from 1950-1999 is show in table 7 Number of typhoon visit in Vietnam shown increasing trend from the 1950-1980 While

it shows some decreasing trend in the 1990 Also noted is

a clear shift of typhoon visit season in Vietnam The peak month in the 1950 is August while it is in September in

both the 1960 and the 1970 It shifts to October in the

1980 and even to November in the 1990 There fore clear delay trend of the typhoon visit season can be found during the latter half of the 20th century ; of which season should

be investigated in future

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND

VARIABILITY ON AGRICULTURE

In order to study impacts of climate change and variability

or extreme climate event (Elnino, Lanina) on rice yields in different agro-economic regions were under taken analysis data series of rice yield of winter – spring and summer crop season As well as calculate differences of rice yield and differences of climate element between this year with the year before from 1960-1998 After that calculate correlation coefficient between differences of rice yields with differences of climate elements in growing period (see table 8, 9)

Rice yield can find in following equations:

STRATEGIES TO BE ADAPTED ON

AGRICULTURE FOR SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

Adaptation isan automatic or planned activity that

minimises adverse effects of climate change and

maximises advantages It is one of the two possible means of copping with the impacts of human- induced climate change- the other is emission mitigation, or

reduction of the degree of climate change Adaptation

is essential to cope with the climate change we cannot avoid now and in the near future, while mitigation

would limit the exten of the climate change over time

STRATEGIES TO BE ADAPTED ON AGRICULTURE FOR SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

1) Short term adaptation

a) Insurance: in agriculture to cope with weather

variation,b) Crop and livestock diversificationesses Changing

crop types requires sufficient knowledge to grow and cultivate

c) Changes in intensity of production:

d) Improved nutrient and pest control management e) Changes in tillage practices and farm systems

f) Temperature migration:

STRATEGIES TO BE ADAPTED ON AGRICULTURE FOR SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

2) Long term adaptation

a) Development of new technologies and

modernizationb) Changing crop mix

c) Improving water management

d) Permanent migration of labor

STRATEGIES TO BE ADAPTED ON AGRICULTURE FOR SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

3) Both short and long-term strategies

a) Investment and accumulation of capital

b) Reform of pricing schemes development of open markets and other reforms.

c) Adaptation of new technologies

d) Promotion of trade This is likely to enhance economic

adaptations under climate

e) Extension services

f) Diversification if income earning and employment

opportunities

g) Dissemination of climate data

h) Institutional planning and implementation

change, if it occurs will definitely effect agriculture.

Agro-ecological regions are difference In general temperature is increasing sunshine duration is decreasing typhoon is moving in the South, the change of rainfall is not clear for every regions.

similar in difference agro-ecological region of Vietnam.

change will have to change the cropping calendar , cropping

pattern, cropping rotation for every agro-ecological regions.

regions and for every crop season.

1 In order to establish above mentioned strategies and

tactics as well as to improve the application of those results in agricultural practices should be continued research project on impact of climate change;

2 The impact of climate change and variability on

agriculture, forestry and food security inVietnam and strategies to be adapted on agriculture;

3 Preparation the Vietnam- National Adaptation

Programmes of Action (NAPA) to adapt to the present threats from climate change In this preparing

a"handbook for Central and local Gevernments"

Fig1 Trend and variation of annual average temperature

(station Ha Noi)

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Fig3 Trend and variation of annual average temperature

(station Ho Chi Minh)

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

∆T( o

C)

Fig4 Trend and variation of absolute minimum temperature

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

∆Tm( o

C)

Fig6 Trend and variation of annual total rainfall

(station Ha Noi)

-800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0

Fig 8 Trend and variation of annual total rainfall

(station Ho Chi Minh)

-800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0