Ly ludn vd thUc tien dd minh chUng rdng, thdnh cong cua cdc M ^ ^ ^ hoat dQng kinh te phdi dUa tren mot he thong ngdn hdng hoat dong co hieu ^ " W ndng thudng dUcfc do lUdng hdng gid c
Trang 1NGHIEN cufu THifC NGHIEM VE HIEU NANG CUA GAC CHI NHANH NGAN HANG THtfOlNG MAI
NHA NtfOfC TAI THANH PHO HO CHI MINH
TS TriTPng Quang Thong
DH Kinh te TP HCM
" • ^ ^ ^fgdnh ngdn hdng co mot vi the ddc hiet quan trong trong mdi quan he vdi cdc
M^^L M nganh khde Ly ludn vd thUc tien dd minh chUng rdng, thdnh cong cua cdc
M ^ ^ ^ hoat dQng kinh te phdi dUa tren mot he thong ngdn hdng hoat dong co hieu
^ " W ndng (thudng dUcfc do lUdng hdng gid cd - ldi sudt cho vay hinh qudn, ldi
sudt huy dong hinh qudn, cdc he so Itfi nhuan) Mot trong nhUng muc tieu chinh cua cua cdc chinh sdch kinh te d tdm quoc gia Id tim kiem mgt cdu trdc cua ngdn hdng sao cho
no CO khd ndng cung Ung cdc dich vu tdi chinh ngdn hdng, cd hieu ndng vd co khd ndng tiep can dUc/c cong chung vdi chi phi tdt nhdt Tuy nhien, tren thUc te vdn con nhUng tranh ludn ve hieu ndng cua he thdng ngdn hdng, thUdng gdn vdi mUc do canh tranh cao vd tinh hen vUng trong cdu true hoat dgng cua no Tinh hen vUng hdm y rdng, cdc ca quan gidm sdt ludn mong muon gidm thieu nguy ca phd sdn cua ngdn hdng vd mot muc tieu nhu the co ve thich hap vdi cdc cdu true ngdn hdng dgc quyen, nhU trUdng hap cda
he thdng ngdn hdng Vi^t Nam hien nay Do do, ndy sinh sU cdn thiet phdi nghien cUu cdu true, hdnh vi, hieu ndng hoat dgng cua cdc ngdn hdng vd mdi quan he qua lai giUa cdc bien trong linh vUc ngdn hdng
Cong nghe ngan hang r r i
Trang 2M u c t i e u c u a b a i v i e t
Muc tieu cua bai viet la, trong cac tiep can
cua md h i n h S-C-P, p h a n tich eac n h a n to' a n h
hudng den hieu n i n g cua n h d m cae ehi n h a n h
n g a n h a n g thUPng m a i (NHTM) n h a nUdc de
td do cd n h d n g gpi y ve chinh s i c h phu hpp
D o i ttfpng v a p h a m vi n g h i e n cufu
Ddi tupng n g h i e n cdu la n h d m c i c chi n h i n h
NHTM n h a nUdc t a i Tp Hd Chi Minh (bao
gdm ca VCB va Vietinbank, du hai n g a n h a n g
n a y da cd p h a n hda mpt p h a n nhung sd hdu
n h a nude v i n chiem da so)
P h a m vi t h d i gian n g h i e n cdu la giai doan
1999-2009 Do viec k i e m nghiem md h i n h
S-C-P doi hdi mpt bp dd lieu k h i ldn, vdi
nhieu bien k h i c nhau, m a n h d m n g h i e n edu
h o a n t o i n k h d n g t h e tiep can dUpc Vdi ly do
k h i c h quan t r e n , viec a p dung md h i n h S-C-P
chi cd t h e thUc h i e n trong p h a m vi he t h d n g
chi n h i n h NHTM n h a nUdc tai Tp Hd Chi
Minh, ncfi m a n h d m cd n h d n g dieu k i e n de
dang trong viec tiep can c i c dd lieu t h d cap
Ve phUcfng dien thUc t e , Tp Hd Chi Minh la
mpt trung t a m k i n h te - tai chinh h a n g dau
da't nudc, cd mdc dp t a p trung va cUdng dp
canh t r a n h gida cac dinh che t i i chinh - n g a n
h i n g dupc d i n h g i i d mdc dp r a t cao
P h r i P n g p h a p n g h i e n ciitu
De t a i a p d u n g cac phUcfng p h a p d i n h
l u p n g t r o n g k i n h te' bao g d m t h d n g ke v a
k i n h t e lUpng
C o sof ly t h u y e t
k h i c biet trong h a n h vi cua cac doanh nghiep (Conduct) ve c i c phUUng dien chien lUpc g i i
ca, chien lupe dau tU, cac h i n h thdc lien ket, hpp t i c va t i c dpng ciia ca'u true - h a n h vi den hieu n a n g h o a t dpng (Performance) ciia cae doanh nghiep
NgUdi cd vai trd s i n g lap n e n ly t h u y e t ve kinh
te cdng nghiep chinh la A Marshall Marshall
da p h a n tich n h d n g giai doan p h i t t r i e n cua cdng nghiep v i phac hpa len mpt khung phan tich phdi hpp gida p h a n tich md t a va c i c tiep can ly t h u y e t (Gilbert, 1984) NhUng den cudi
n a m 1930, t h i mpt k h u n g ly thuyet thdng nha't
ve k i n h te cdng n g h i e p mdi dupc E Mason de
ra Khdng nhU ly t h u y e t k i n h te vi md truyen
t h d n g vdi cae k h a i n i e m qua trdu tUpng, kho Ude lupng va giai thich c i c h i e n tUpng thUc te, Mason da de xua't n e n t a n g eua mpt md hinh giai thich c i c quan he gida ca'u true thi trudng
va h i n h vi c i c doanh nghiep va c i c hieu nang
cd t h e cd ciia nd (Gilbert, 1984)
Theo ly t h u y e t canh t r a n h h o a n hao, of can bang, t a t ca cac doanh nghiep n h a n dupc mpt
ty s u i t lpi n h u a n nhU sau, du dUdi b a t ky boat dpng nao Dieu n a y mau t h u a n vdi nhdng gi xay r a trong thUc t e , hieu qua b o a t dpng cua
c i c doanh n g h i e p r a t k h a c nhau tuy theo tdng linh vUc s a n xua't k i n h doanh Mpt each tdng
q u i t trong n e n k i n h t e , c i c n h a s a n xua't phai quyet dinh sao cho cac ngudn lUc khdng bi l i n g phi va hieu n a n g b o a t dpng p h a i cao Td do,
v a n de quan t r p n g la chung t a p h a i n h a n dien cac n h a n to' x i c dinh hieu n a n g ciia doanh nghiep va xay dUng c i c ly t h u y e t giai thich sU
k h i c biet ve hieu n a n g cua cac doanh nghiep cung n h u xac dinh c i c lien he gida c i c bien
n h a n to' v i hieu n a n g cud'i cung
Mo hinh S-C-P (Structure-Conduct-Performance)
dUa t r e n ly thuyet td chdc cong nghiep
(Theory on Industrial Organisations).Qua dd,
khi n g h i e n cdu ca'u triic thi trUdng (Structure),
ngudi ta cd khuynh hudng xem xet lieu n h d n g
k h a c biet ve ca'u triic se giai thich n h d n g
Cac t r a n h luan b a n lam va n g h i e n cdu thdc
n g h i e m dng dung md h i n h S-C-P ve p h a n tich mdi quan he gida ca'u true va hieu n a n g trong linh vUc n g a n h a n g xua't b i e n va p h a t t r i e n chu yeu d My Trong khi dd, be t h d n g n g a n
h a n g chau Au it dupc cac n h a n g h i e n cdu quan
Trang 3t i m trong mdt t h d i gian dai vi no co t i n h cdng
nhac, it t h a y ddi va do thUdng dUpc bao hp
(Freixas, Xavier, Rocher, J C , 1998) Nhin
chung, lap luan ciia cac n h a nghien cdu cho
r i n g , n g a n h n g a n h a n g cung la mpt n g a n h
kinh te nhU n h d n g n g a n h khac, n e n c i c tiep
can cua ly thuyet td chdc cdng nghiep cd dien,
cd the dupc dng dung vao p h a n tich
Mac du t i n h n h a n qua cua chudi S-C-P con
do nhdng van de b a n luan, nhUng md h i n h co
sd ludn dupc c i c n g h i e n cdu thUc n g h i e m d a n
chieu den Phuong t r i n h sau d i y da dupe k i e m
nghiem:
m
P = a o + a , S + X ^kX^ + ^
k = 2
Vdi:
P: la hieu n a n g
S: la ca'u true
X^: cic bien sd giai thich (explicative) k h a c
u: sai sd
Sau dd Gilbert (1984), da p h i t t r i e n md h i n h
S-C-P t h a n h P = f (S, B, D, C, X) de dng dung
p h a n tich n g a n h n g a n h a n g
Trong do :
P: hieu nang, thUdng dUpc do lUdng b a n g gia
ca (lai suat cho vay binh quan, lai s u i t huy
dpng binh quan, c i c he so' lpi nhuan)
S: ca'u true Cac nghien cdu thudng sd dung
bien tdng so' tien gdi de t i n h chi so' t a p t r u n g
va chi so' H-H
B: cac bien sd ca'u true k h i c , thudng la rao
can n h i p cudc Viec n h i p cupc cua mpt doi thu
mdi se lam m a n h hcfn cUdng dp canh t r a n h
cua n g i n h Trong linh vUc n g a n h a n g , cd hai
y kie'n do'i nghieh nhau: (i) Cac cO quan k i e m
s o i t cho rang, can phai b a n che c a n h t r a n h
q u i mdc, vi n h a p cupc tU do se t i c dpng k h d n g
tdt den cac lpi ich chung nhU duy tri t h a n h
khoan, quyen lpi cua chu np; (ii) Y k i e n k h i c
lai t a n ddng viec dd bo cac rao can n h a p cupc
de duy tri canh t r a n h
D: cau cua t h i trUdng, thudng dupc do b a n g
kich cd cua thi trUdng n h u tdng tai s a n hoac
tdng t i e n gdi D cung cd the dupc do ludng
b a n g t a n g trddng cua thi trudng vi thi trUdng
cang rpng, c i n g t a n g trUdng t h i cang ldi keo nhieu ddi thii mdi T a n g trUdng la chi dau cho
c i c t h a y ddi ciia cac dieu k i e n ve cau
C: k h i c biet ve gia phi gida cac doanh nghiep,
cd t h e do ludng g i i n t i e p b a n g qui mo t d n g
t a i s a n , x e t t r e n phUofng dien t i n h k i n h te
n h d qui md Cac he so' k h a c cd t h e dUpc sd dung n h u chi phi t r e n n h a n v i e n va t d n g t i e n gdi k h o n g ky h a n chia cho t d n g t i e n gdi He so' cudi cung n a y dupe de xua't trong Udc lupng chi phi vdn, vi t i e n gdi k h d n g ky b a n la mpt ngudn vdn gia r e
X: bien sd kiem s o i t (ndi len c i c t i n h chuyen biet cua mpt s a n pham) Neu xem lai s u i t cho vay va lai s u i t huy dpng n h u n h d n g bien dpc lap, da t h e m vao cac bien dpc lap k i e m s o i t , chang b a n , h i n h thdc/khd'i lupng/ky b a n ciia tien gdi; tdng cho vay/tdng t a i san; he so' vdn/ tdng tai san; he sd dU phdng rui ro tin dung
t r e n tdng dU np
Trtfcfng hpp Trung Quoc
Chien-Shun Chen va Hui-Tzu Shih (2004) da
t i e n h a n h n h d n g n g h i e n cdu thUc n g h i e m ddi vdi h e t h d n g N g i n h a n g Trung Qud'c Ddi vdi
h e t h d n g n g a n h a n g nay, cac s a n p h a m truyen tho'ng n h u huy dpng vdn va cho vay doanh nghiep da t a n g trUdng m a n h do thi trUdng
b a n h trUdng sau cupc khiing h o a n g tai chinh chau A, t h e h i e n cf mdc dp huy dpng vd'n/nhan
v i e n va lpi n h u a n r o n g / n h a n v i e n gia t a n g
k^^^a te
nganhang
Trang 4Them vao dd, do qui md ciia ngan hang gia
tang, cac Ngan hang Trung Qud'c da bat dau
lUu tam nhieu hcfn vao dich vu k h i c h h i n g ,
l i m cho sd nhan lUc n g i n hang ciing gia tang
theo Tuy vay, sU gia tang sd lupng nhan
vien khdng keo theo sU gia tang tinh chuyen
nghiep Khdng cd sU cai thien dang ke nao
ddi vdi linh vUc kinh doanh ngoii cac san
pham truyen thdng I i huy dpng vdn va cho
vay Ddi vdi cic chi nhanh NHTM nha nUdc,
do nhdng khudn khd gidi ban trong quan ly
ciia Chinh phii, viec gia tang sd lUdng nhan
vien khdng nhdng khdng keo theo sU cai
thien ve tinh chuyen nghiep, ma t r i i lai, lai
lam cho nd kem hcfn Cac chi nhanh NHTM
nha nUdc khdng cd nhdng nd lUc thUc sU de
phat trien nhdng linh vUc kinh doanh mdi,
ngoai nhdng linh vUc truyen tho'ng Viec gia
tang lpi nhuan ciia cac chi n h i n h NHTM
n h i nUdc ehu yeu nhd vao sU gia tang ciia
qui md thi trUdng Dieu do chi ra rang, do
viec hudng dung vi the gan nhu la dpc quyen
nhdm, cac chi nhanh NHTM nha nUdc v i n
I i mpt the lUc manh trong he tho'ng Ngan
hang Trung Qud'c
Mo h i n h n g h i e n citu
Td tdng luan ly thuyet ve md hinh nghien
cdu, xet cac diem tUofng ddng trong thUc
trang, the che quan ly qua trinh chuyen
ddi va ca'u true tdng the gida he tho'ng
Ngan h a n g Viet Nam va he tho'ng Ngan
h a n g Trung Qud'c, md hinh phan tich dupc
nhdm nghien cdu chpn cd dang:
P = f(S, C, X, )
Trong dd:
P la bieu nang, dupe do bang ty le
thu n h a p t r e n tdng t a i san ROA
S la cac bien ca'u true
C la cac bien h a n h vi (chinh sach)
X I i bien so' kiem soat
S, C, X trong dd lieu bai viet dUPe do ludng
thdng qua t a p hpp c i c bien nhU:
- ROA (Return on Assets), ky hieu P: ddpc tinh t o i n bang cich lay lpi nhuan sau thue chia cho tdng tai san binh quan trong nam (binh quan gida dau nam v i cudi nam) Day
I i bien phu thupc duy nhat dupe chpn de do ludng hieu nang (P) Ty so' ROE (Return on Equity) khdng dupe chpn vi nhdm ngan hang qud'c doanh chi la cac chi n h i n h vdi ngudn vdn ban dau dUpc cap p h i t bdi ngan hang
me, chd khdng thUc sU I i vdn dieu le d i n g ky (Registered Capital) nhU ngan hang cd phan
va ngan hang lien doanh
- Thi phan eho vay (Lending Share), ky hieu Zl: dupc tinh toan bang cich li'y tdng du np cho vay cua tdng nhdm chi n h i n h NHTM nha nude chia cho tdng dU np cho vay cua t o i n he
Trang 5t h d n g c i c chi n h a n h n g a n h a n g t r e n dia b a n
Tp Hd Chi Minh (khdng bao gdm cac dinh che
tai chinh phi n g a n hang)
- Thi p h a n huy dpng vdn (Deposit Share), ky
hieu Z2: dupc t i n h t o i n bang c i c h lay tdng sd
du huy dpng t i e n gdi ciia cac ehi n h a n h n g a n
h a n g chia cho tdng dU huy dpng t i e n gdi ciia
t o i n he tho'ng n g a n h a n g of Tp Hd Chi Minh
(ciing khdng bao gdm cac dinh che t a i chinh
phi n g i n hang)
- Thi p h a n t a i s a n (Asset Share), ky hieu Z4:
dupe t i n h toan b a n g c i c h lay tdng t a i s a n ciia
tdng n h o m chi n h i n h n g a n h a n g ehia cho
tdng t i i s a n cua t o i n h e thdng c i c chi n h a n h
ngan h i n g d Tp Hd Chi Minh Thi p h a n t a i
san trong mpt ehdng mUc nao dd cd t h e h i e n
tinh kinh te qui mo ciia hoat dpng n g i n h a n g
- Ty le np xi'u (NPL Ratio), ky hieu Z6: dupc
tinh b a n g c i c h lay np xi'u t r e n tdng dU np
cho vay Day la bien sd thudng sd dung de do
lUofng rui ro tin dung cua n g a n h a n g
- Du t r d t h a n h k h o a n / t d n g t a i s a n (Liquidity
Reserve to Total Assets), ky hieu Z8: dUpc
t i n h t o a n b a n g t i e n m a t , t i e n gdi n g a n h a n g
cpng chdng k h o i n t h a n h k h o a n chia cho t d n g
t a i s a n day la mpt b i e n so' do lUdng riii ro
t h a n h k h o a n cua NHTM Ty le cang nhd t h i
k h a n a n g chdng dd riii ro t h a n h k h o a n cang
yeu va ngUpe lai Tuy vay, neu ty le n i y cao
thi n g a n h a n g can p h a i xem lai k h a n a n g
d a n h ddi gida rui ro va lpi n h u a n , vi t a i s a n
t h a n h k h o a n cd mdc sinh lpi thUdng tha'p
hofn nhieu so vdi c i c t i i s a n sinh lpi k h a c
(Other E a r n i n g Assets)
- Tien gdi khdng ky h a n / t i e n gdi cd ky b a n
(Current Deposit to Fixed Deposit Ratio), ky
hieu ZIO: n h d n g n g a n h i n g nhd hoac c i c n g a n
h a n g yeu k e m ve cung dng dich vu thudng cd
ty le nay tha'p, trong khi do, n h d n g n g a n h a n g
ldn va n h d n g n g a n h a n g cd t h e m a n h ve cung
dng dich vu se cd ty le n a y cao Ve ly thuyet,
ty le nay c i n g cao t h i cang l a m t a n g k h a n a n g
giam thieu chi phi huy dpng von dau vao, gia
t a n g hieu qua b o a t dpng cua n g a n h a n g
- Cho vay/huy dpng (Lending to Deposit Ratio),
ky hieu Z l l : dUpc t i n h toan b a n g c i c h lay
tdng du n p cho vay chia t d n g so' t i e n gdi huy dpng Ty le n a y cang cao t h i cang gia t a n g
k h a n i n g rui ro t i n dung ciia n g i n h a n g , trong khi dd, c i c n g a n h a n g cd ty le cho vay/huy dpng tha'p t h u d n g cd k h a n i n g giam thieu rui
ro tin dung, da d a n g hda d a n h muc t a i s a n dau
td, da dang hda d a n h muc dich vu cung dng cho k h i c h h a n g
- Cof ca'u thu n h i p lai/tdng thu n h a p , ky hieu Z12: ty le n a y cang cao t h i n g a n h a n g cang de gap rui ro tin dung hcfn Dieu dd cung thUdng tha'y d n h d n g n g a n h a n g bi b a n che ve cung dng dich vu
- Cho vay trung dai h a n / t d n g cho vay (Mediem and Long Term Lending to Total Lending), ky hieu Z14: dupc t i n h t o a n b a n g c i c h li'y tdng
du np cho vay t r u n g v i dai b a n chia cho t d n g
du n p cho vay
- Cho vay b a n g ngoai te/tdng cho vay (Foreign Currency-based Lending to Total Lending Ratio), ky hieu Z15: dupe t i n h toan b a n g c i c h lay tdng du np cho vay b a n g ngoai te chia cho tdng du np cho vay Ty le n a y t h e h i e n t i e m lUc cua cac n g a n h a n g ldn, m a n h ve dich vu,
n h i t la c i c dich vu lien quan den xua't n h i p
k h a u va ngoai hdi
- Tai s a n co ngoai te/tdng t a i san, ky hieu Z18: p h a n ldn I i t i e n gdi ngoai te dupe gdi t a i cac tai k h o a n nostro t a i c i c n g a n h a n g dai ly dat t a i nUdc ngoai TUcfng tU, t a i s a n co ngoai
te the h i e n t i e m lUc cua c i c n g i n h a n g ldn,
m a n h ve dich vu, nha't la c i c dich vu lien quan den xua't n h a p k h a u va ngoai hdi
- Tai s i n np ngoai te/tdng ngudn vdn, ky hieu Z19: p h a n ldn I i c i c k h o a n huy dpng vdn b a n g ngoai te t d cac chu np nUdc ngoai v i ca td c i c tai k h o a n nostro tUofng dng vdi c i c t a i s a n cd ngoai te nhU da ndi d p h a n t r e n Do dd, t i i
s a n np ngoai te ciing t h e h i e n t i e m lUc cua cac n g i n h a n g ldn, m a n h ve dich vu, nha't la cac dich vu lien quan den xua't n h a p khau va ngoai hoi; b e n canh dd, cdn the h i e n n a n g lUc vay np td ngUdi khdng cU tru, neu co
Cac bien liet ke t r e n , mpt m a t , chinh la n h d n g chi tieu thudng dUpc sd dung de do lUdng va
nganhang
Trang 6d i n h gia b o a t ddng NHTM, nhdng m a t k h i c
trong khudn khd md h i n h p h a n tich, chinh la
nhdng bien - n h a n td t i c dpng den hieu qua va
hieu n i n g boat dpng ngan hang, hieu theo nghia
tdng q u i t nhU trong phan ly thuyet tdng quan
neu tren
K e t q u a k y v o n g tijf p h a n tich: cd t h e x i c
dinh dupe ba ndi dung quan trpng sau: (i) Ddi
vdi tdng loai hinh ngan hang cu the, co t h e x i c
dinh dupc nhdng t h a n h phan t i c dpng vao ROA
va sap xep chung theo mdc dp t i c dpng tang dan
hoac giam dan; (ii) So s i n h , n h a n dinh sU k h i c
biet ve hieu nang ciia cac loai hinh ngan hang
k h i c nhau va so s i n h , sap xep mdc dp hieu nang
ROA ciia cac ngan hang; (iii) Ket luan va dUa r a
nhdng h a m y chinh sich
B o du! l i e u c h o p h a n t i c h : n h d m nghien cdu
da sd dung b a n g can ddi tdng h p p giai doan
1999-2009 p h a n chia theo nhdm c i c n g i n
h a n g t r e n dia b i n Tp Hd Chi Minh Ngudn
dd lieu t d N g a n h a n g N h a nUdc Chi n h i n h Tp
Hd Chi Minh
D o t i n c a y c u a d& lieu: dd lieu hang nam vdi
11 quan sat giai doan 1999 - 2009, vi vay, t i e gia
ky vpng dp tin cay cua qua trinh phan tich dat
dupe 85%, tuong duong vdi mdc y nghia a=15%
Ket qua n g h i e n ciifu
Vdi mdc y nghia a=15%, hau het ca bien ky vpng
deu tUofng quan cd y nghla ddi vdi hieu nang ROA
Vi vay, md hinh SCP ky vpng cd dang nhu sau:
P = KZl, Z2, Z4, Z6, Z8, ZIO, Z l l , Z12, Z14, Z15,
Z18, Z19)
P h a n tich hdi quy thUc h i e n cho md h i n h tren
k e t hpp c i c kiem dinh c i c h i e n tUpng da cpng tuyen, tU tUcfng quan v i phUcfng sai t h a y ddi
b a n g phuong p h a p loai t r d d a n (Backward)
Md h i n h dupc chpn cudi cung cd k h a n a n g giai
thich 94,3% gia t r i thUc te (da qua k i e m dinh vdi sig^j^oy^ =0,3% va a=15%), (Bang 1,2)
B a n g 1: Tom tSt m o h i n h SCP n h o m chi n h a n h NHTM
n h a nvCdc
Miu
1
R
,989(a)
R-,977
R^hieu chinh ,943
Sal so chuan cda u^c lirong ,0020
Thong ke Durbin-Watson 2,595
a Cdc bien dpc lap: (hdng sd), Z19, Z15, Z2, Z8, Zll, ZIO
b Bien phu thupc: Y2
B a n g 2: Kiem d i n h m o h i n h SCP n h o m c h i n h a n h NHTM n h a niidc
ANOVA** ( p h a n t i c h phiTdng sai)
Mau
1 Hoi quy Phan du Tong
l o n g binh
phyffng ,001 ,000 ,001
df
6
4
10
Binh phiftrng trung binh
,000 ,000
F
28,563
Sig
,003'"'
a Cdc bien dpc lap: (hdng sd), Z19, Z15, Z2, Z8, Zll, ZIO
b Bien phu thupc: Y2 Nguon: Ket qud truy sudt tU SPSS
M6 h i n h k h o n g x a y r a h i e n t u p n g da cpng tuye'n (ta't ca c i c g i i t r i V I F deu nhd hofn 10), ( B a n g 3) v a k h o n g co h i e n t d p n g tii tuong quan (chi t i e u dubin-Watson = 2,595), ( B a n g 1) Vi vay, mo h i n h co t h e dUpc dung
de k i e m d i n h c i c m o i quan h e gida hieu
n a n g v a c i c chi tieu k y vpng t r o n g mo h i n h
B a n g 3: H# so' h o i quy m o h i n h SCP n h o m c h i n h a n h NHTM n h a nifoTc
C o e f f i c i e n t s * (h$ so' h o i q u y )
1 Hang so
Z,
Z,
ZIO
Zl, Zis
Hq so chira chuun
hoa
B
.053 -.040
,026 ,042 ,091 -,511
Sai so chuan
.012
,051
,016
,324
H$ so da chuan hda Beta
-,453
,363 -,446 ,491 -.303
t
4,247 -3,314
2,199 -2,723 3,547 -1,576
Sie
,013
,005
,053
.190
Cgng tuy^n D$ chap
n h i n
,273
,210 213
,154
VIF
3,666
4,771 4.700
6.483
a Bien phu thupc: Y2 Ngudn: Ket qud truy sudt til SPSS
Trang 7Ket qua sau kiem dinh, p h i n t h i n h hai nhom:
(i) N h o m c i c chi tieu t i c dpng co y nghia t h d n g
ke; (ii) N h o m c i c chi tieu k e m y nghia t h d n g
ke ( t i c dpng khong ro rang)
Cu the n h u sau:
- Nhom cac chi tieu dap Ung ky vpng: t i c dpng
m a n h len ROA
Bien Z2: thi p h a n huy dpng von co t i c dpng
am len hieu n a n g ROA Ket qua n a y k h o n g
ly giai dUpc t i n h k i n h te qui mo I i mpt diem
m a n h cua c i c chi n h i n h NHTM n h i nUdc
Tren thUc t e , cac chi n h i n h NHTM n h a nUde,
trong trUcfng hpp huy dpng k h o n g du de cho
vay (do thi p h a n sut giam), thudng p h a i vay
lai tif n g a n h a n g me vdi lai s u i t thudng dUpc
d i n h g i i la k h o n g "hpp ly" Trong k h i k h o n g
CO nhOfng ccf sd, dU lieu minh chdng k h i c , n h o m
nghien cUu p h a i c h i p n h a n loai bien n a y r a
khdi mo h i n h de xua't cudi cimg
Bien Z8: du trii t h a n h khoan/tdng t a i s a n co
t i c dpng a m len hieu n a n g ROA
Bien ZIO: t i e n gdi khong ky h a n / t i e n gdi co
ky b a n co t i c dpng duofng len hieu n a n g ROA
Bien Z l l : cho vay/huy dpng co t i c dpng a m len
hieu n a n g ROA
Bien Z15: cho vay b a n g ngoai te/tdng cho vay
CO t i c dpng dUcfng len hieu n a n g ROA
Bien Z19: tai s a n np ngoai te/tdng ngudn vdn
CO t i c dpng a m len hieu n a n g ROA
- Nhom chi tieu khong d i p Ung ky vpng: t i c
dpng khong rd r a n g len ROA, bao gdm cae
bien con lai
K e t l u a n m o h i n h
Bien Z8: du trU t h a n h khoan/tdng t a i s a n co
xu hudng giam dan, k e t qua hdi quy cho t h a y
sU t i c dpng cua n h a n td n a y len ROA h i e n
di dung quy luat Vi vay, can co nhOfng chinh
s i c h , de xui't n h a m giam ty le dU trOf t h a n h
khoan/tdng t a i s a n se cd hieu Ung tich cUc len
hieu n i n g ROA
Bien ZIO: t i e n gdi khong ky h a n / t i e n gdi co
ky h a n trong thUc te co xu hudng giam d a n
nhUng k e t qua hdi quy cho tha'y co hieu Ung
dUdng giufa t i e n gdi khong ky h a n / t i e n gdi co
ky b a n Vi vay, can co chinh s i c h gia t i n g
t i e n gdi k h o n g ky b a n trong ccf ca'u t i e n gdi se
CO hieu Ung td^t len hieu n i n g ROA
Bien Z l l : cho vay/huy dpng c6 xu hudng giam dan, phu hpp vdi k e t qua hdi quy va ky vpng dUa ra NhU vay, cang giam ty le cho vay/huy dpng cang t a n g ROA Ket qua n i y n h i n m a n h chinh s i c h da d a n g hoa cof cau suf dung vd^n ciia n g a n h a n g , se gia t a n g hieu n a n g ROA ciia n h o m chi n h a n h NHTM n h a nUdc
Bien Z15: cho vay b a n g ngoai te/tdng cho vay
CO xu hudng giam d a n nhUng trong mdi quan
he tdng the c i c n h i n td t i c dpng vao hieu
n a n g ROA cho tha'y, cho vay b a n g ngoai t e / tdng eho vay co hieu Ung dUofng Dieu n a y co nghia, gia t a n g cho vay b a n g ngoai te se co
xu hudng t a n g hieu n a n g ROA cua n g a n h a n g qude doanh
Bien Z19: t i i s a n n p ngoai t e / t d n g ngudn von
CO xu h u d n g giam d a n , phu h p p vdi k e t qua hdi quy va ky vpng Tuy n h i e n , t r o n g giai doan n i y , t a i s a n n p ngoai t e / t d n g ngudn vd^n cua chi n h a n h N H T M n h a nUdc chiem
ty t r p n g tha'p va la chi tieu t i c dpng t h i p nha't t r o n g cae n h a n td^ dUpc de cap Vi vay, can xem x e t lai chinh s i c h g i a m t a i s a n n p ngoai t e / t d n g ngudn vdn n h a m t a n g hieu
n a n g ROA
C a c gtfi y c h i n h s a c h
TU cac k e t qua p h a n tich, cac chinh s i c h v i phUofng thdc quan t r i t h a n h k h o a n ciing can dupe cac chi n h a n h N H T M n h i nude quan
t a m nhieu bon C i c chi n h a n h n g a n h i n g
n a y ciing can p h a t huy lpi t h e " d i e t h u " cua
m i n h (TrUofng Quang Thong, 2009), t r o n g viec
n h a n nhiing k h o a n t i e n gijfi k h o n g ky b a n tU
c i c doanh n g h i e p ldn, d i e b i e t la cac doanh
n g h i e p n h a nUde, t a p doan k i n h te n h a nUdc The m a n h t r e n c a n p h a i dupe d a t t r o n g m p t
n e n t a n g vufng chae bun, xui't p h a t tii c h a t lupng va sU da d a n g ciia s a n p h a m dich vu -linh vUc m a eac ehi n h a n h N H T M n h i nUdc quan t a m dau tU nhieu h o n t r o n g bd^i c a n h
c a n h t r a n h h i e n nay
nganhangtn
So 61 •Thang 04/2011 " f l l i
Trang 8Cung n h u vay, t h o n g qua viec p h i t t r i e n dich
vu, ehi n h i n h N H T M n h i nUdc co t h e giam
d a n ty le cho vay/huy dpng, n h a m giam thieu
rui ro tin dung va cai t h i e n hieu n a n g b o a t
dpng cua minh
Mpt v a n de k h i c ciing can dUpc quan t a m :
trong khi tai s a n co ngoai te gop p h a n l i m
gia t a n g hieu n a n g ciia c i c ehi n h a n h N H T M
n h a nUde thi t a i s a n n p ngoai te lai l a m giam
hieu n i n g do Sd^ lUpng t a i s a n co ngoai t e ,
theo k i n h n g h i e m cua n h o m n g h i e n cUu, t h e
h i e n mpt vai tro va quyen lUc m a n g t i n h lieh
sii ciia n h o m c i c chi n h i n h NHTM n h a nUdc
trong mpt t h d i gian d i i , trong linh vUc t h a n h
t o i n qud^c te va t i i t r p ngoai thucfng Do do,
de cac k h o a n muc t i i s i n c6-tai s i n np co t i c
dpng tich cUc len hieu n a n g , tUofng tU gpi y
ehinh s i c h phia t r e n , cae chi n h i n h N H T M
n h a nUdc cang can p h a i giiJ vufng, cai t h i e n
va p h a t t r i e n chat lUpng, d a n h muc s a n p h a m
dich vu trong linh viic eo lien quan; dau tU
CO hieu qua hcfn cac d a n h muc np ngoai t e ,
t h i e t lap c i c phUofng thUc quan ly riii ro hdi
doii, d i e biet I i trong dieu k i e n chenh lech
a m keo dai giiJa t i i s a n co ngoai te va t a i s a n
np ngoai t e Mac dii be ngoai, chenh lech i m
CO the la mpt lpi t h e nhUng t r e n thUc t e , rui
ro v a n co the xay ra; chang b a n , trong trUdng
hpp cac chi n h i n h N H T M n h a nUdc q u i l a m
dung viec cho vay b a n g ngoai te cho nhiing
k h i c h h a n g thieu k h a n a n g t i i tao ngoai te
de t r a np
H a n c h e c u a n g h i e n c i i u
De tai n g h i e n cijfu eung con mpt sd^ b a n che
nhi't dinh: p h a m vi nghien cUu (Tp Hd Chi
Minh) bi b a n che ve ngudn dd lieu t o a n he
thd^ng n g a n h a n g Viet Nam; chudi thdi gian 11
n i m , dp tin cay 85% cung co the giam bdt di
y nghia cua cac k e t qua p h a n tich Cudi ciing,
t i c gia v i n khong the co day du c i c duf lieu
can thiet, de co the bd sung nhieu bien giai
thich k h i c , cung n h u de ly giai nhQng nghieh
ly xay r a trong q u i t r i n h xuf ly va p h a n t i c h "
Tai lieu tham khao
1 Truang Quang Thong (2009), Canh tranh ngdn hdng tic goc dp khd ndng sinh ldi Tap chi Kinh te Phdt trien, thdng 12-2009
2 Chien-Shun Chen and Hui-Tzu Shih (2004), Banking and Insurance in the new China, Edward Elga Publishing
3 Freixas, Xavier, Rocher, J.C (1998), Microeconomics
of banking The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts
4 Gilbert, R.A (1984), Bank Market Structure and Competition: A survey Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 16 (4) •