Cho den nay da cd mdt Ioat cac nghien cuu dugc tien hdnh nhim phdn tich vd danh gia cdc tdc ddng trong uang L^n ciia Chuang trinh cai each 2003 ddi vdi car ^QQ gia EU, bao gdm cd cdc nu
Trang 1TAC O O N G C O A CAI C A C H CHI'NH S A C H N O N G NGHIEP CHUNG Nl 03
DOI VOI cnc Niroc cu
1 Vai net v l Chinh sach Nong nghiep
chung
Chinh sdch Ndng nghiep chung
(Common Agricultural Policy - CAP) ciia
Lien minh Chau Au (EU) la mdt trong nhiing
cMnh sdch quan trgng nhdt ciia EU dua tren
edc chuang trinh trg cap ndng nghiep CAP
ra ddi sau Chiln tranh thi gidi thu Hai nham
gidi quylt nhirng lo ngai ve tinh trang thieu
luong thuc dien ra trong sudt nhirng nam
chiln tranh Chfnh sach ndy dugc xdy dung
vdi muc dfch hd trg va khuyen khfch ngudi
ndng ddn sdn xudt nhieu luong thuc hon nira
nhim dam bdo ngudn cung cdp luong thuc
ben viing Trong sudt thdi gian thuc thi, day
Id chfnh sdch gdy nhieu tranh cai nhdt cd d
ndi Khdi vd ngoai'Khdi
CAP dugc phan chia thdnh hai tru edt
Tru cpt thic nhdt Id cdc bien phdp hd trg thi
trudng bao gdm cdc khoan thanh toan true
tiep cd gan vdi dien tfch vd vat nudi, cdc bien
phdp hd trg xuat khau, cdc bien phdp hd trg
mua vd du trir can thiep Tru cpt thic hai
nham muc tieu hd trg rdng rai hon cho cac
muc tieu phat trien ndng thdn va mdi trudng
thdng qua cac bien phdp trg cdp cho ndng
ddn tir bd cdc lgi Ich kinh te de bao ve mdi
trudng (cdc bien phdp ndng nghiep mdi
trudng), hd trg ndng dan d nhirng viing kem
thudn lgi, ho trg dau tu ca sd ha tdng ndng
thdn vd tai trang trai, ho trg ky thuat vd ddo
tao
Ths Tran Thi Thanh Huyen
Vien Nghien ciru Chdu Au
CAP cd ngan sach hang nam rdt ldn, trudc day chilm khoang tren 50%o tdng ngdn saeh EU Tuy nhien, dilu ndy khien cho ITnh vuc ndng nghiep thieu dn dinh Do vdy, trai qua 3 cude cdi each vdo cac nam 1992, 1993
va gdn day nhat la 2003, ngdn sach giam xudng cdn 45%) (55 ty euro/nam) Ngdn sdch ndy cd xu hudng tiep tue gidm trong khudn khd ngan.saQh EU giai doan 2014-2020 ,
^ Trai qua han 40 nam thue thi, CAP da
ed nhirng dieu chinh phii hgp vdi bdi cdnh phdt trien Lan dieu chinh gdn day nhdt la vdo nam 2003 vdi nhiing thay ddi quan trgng, trong dd hai xu hudng ndi bat nhdt la
hd trg ddc lap vdi quy md sdn xuat vd tang ngdn sach cho chinh sdch phdt trien ndng thdn Cdi each CAP 2003 da tdc ddng manh den cdc mat kinh te, xa hdi va mdi trudng khdng chi eiia eac nude thdnh vien EU md cd cac nude ngoai Khdi Bai viet nay chu yeu
de cap den nhirng tac dgng ciia CAP 2003 ddi vdi cdc nudc EU
2 Tac dong cua Chuong trinh cai each CAP nam 2003 doi vdi cac nuoc EU
Trdi qua ban 6 nam thuc hien, Chuang trinh cdi each 2003 da dem Iai nhirng kit qua nhdt dinh Cho den nay da cd mdt Ioat cac nghien cuu dugc tien hdnh nhim phdn tich
vd danh gia cdc tdc ddng trong uang L^n ciia
Chuang trinh cai each 2003 ddi vdi car ^QQ
gia EU, bao gdm cd cdc nudc EUI5 ^j, nudc thdnh vien mdi ve san lugng va i , ^
Trang 2'^de itd4tg, eua eai eddt 37
nhdp ndng nghiep, cu the Id tdc ddng tdi mdt
sd mat hdng bi edt gidm hd trg nhieu nhu ngii
cdc, gao vd thit Mdt sd tdc ddng dang chii y
cua Chuang trinh cai each 2003 ddi vdi cac
nudc EU bilu hien tren cac mat chii yeu sau:
fl Ddi vdi dat trong vd sdn lugng ngd
cdc
Cdc nudc thdnh vien mdi gdp them 38
trieu ha dien tfch ndng nghiep dugc sir dung
vao 130 trieu ha cua cac nudc thdnh vien cii
Nhu vdy, dien tich canh tac ndng nghiep cua
EU25 tang them 30% so vdi dien tfch ddt
trdng ciia EU15 San lugng ciia EU25 khdng
tang manh so vdi EUI5 do sdn lugng ciia cac
nuac thdnh vien mdi d miic thap hon
Theo cdc nghien cuu, trong giai doan
2004-2010, Cdi each CAP nam 2003 du
doan se ldm giam sdn lugng ngii cdc vd thay
ddi tinh hinh phdn bd ddt dai cho cac loai cdy
trdng cua cdc nudc EU15 Du doan tdng dien tfch canh tac ngu cdc se gidm 2,6% trong nam 2009 (tuang duang vdi 0,9 trieu ha), trong dd rieng dien tich trdng Ma mach den
vd Ilia mi ddu gidm manh tdi 9,3% vd 10,4% (tucmg duang vdi 0,1 vd 0,4 trieu ha) Tinh trang suy gidm dien tfch trdng ngii cdc xdy ra chii ylu la do su canh tranh tir nhdm cay trdng phuc vu san xudt nang lugng, ciing vdi viec edt gidm ho trg gid cho ngii cdc vd nguyen tic tach rieng bat ddu cd hieu lire Ben canh dd, thay ddi trong quy dinh ve san lugng Ilia mi ciing cd the dan tdi nhimg suy gidm tilp theo ve dien tich trdng
Ngodi ra, dien tich trdng cac loai cay cd hat ldy ddu cua EUI5 dugc du doan gidm 2,9%, trong khi cdc loai cay trdng phuc vu sdn xudt nang lugng du dodn tang 0,8 - 0,9 trieu ha - dien tich ndy vdn dugc sir dung de trdng ngii cdc
Bang T Tac dong ciia cai each CAP nam 2003 doi voi phan bo dat dai cac nirdc
EU15 giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010 (Dan vi: trieu ha)
Tong lu'ong ngu coc
Liia my
Liia my cii'ng
Liia mach
Ngo
Liia mach den
Tong luong cay hat lay
dau
Luong du' tru- t y nguyen
2004/05
35.7 -3.3%
14.0 -1.4%
3.5 -8.3%
lO.I -1.8%
4.1 -1.6%
I.O -21.4%
4.3 -3.6%
3.0 38.8%
2005/06
35.6 -3.1%
13.9 -1.0%
3.5 -10.4%
9.9 -3.3%
4.1 -1.3%
1.0 -18.4%
4.4 -2.3%
2.9 35.1%
2006/07
35.7 -2.8%
14.0 -0.9%
3.5 -9.9%
lO.I -0.5%
4.2 -0.6%
1.0 -18.4%
4.4 -2.7%
2.8 32.2%
2007/08
35.7 -2.7%
13.9 -1.2%
3.5 -10.4%
9.9 -1.8%
4.2 -1.2%
I.l -12.3%
4.5 -2.9%
2.9 30.8%
2008/09
35.7 -2.5%
14.0 -0.6%
3.5 -ILO
9.9 -0.8%
4.2 -0.2%
1.1 -7.8%
4.5 -3.5%
2.8
L 2 8 8 %
2009/10
35.6 -2.6% 13.9 -1.4% 3.6
10.4% 9.7 -0.9% 4.2 -1.9% I.l -9.3% 4.6 -2.9% 2.9 29.3%
Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 6
Trang 338 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 iOfl r ' - J - V 10
Sdn lugng thit bd giam vd viec tang dien
tfch trdng cd cho gia siie dien ra do thuc hien
nguyen tdc tdch rieng trong thanh todn true
tilp cd thi dan tdi gidm 7% dien tfch sdn
xudt thue an gia siic d cac nudc EUI5 Tdng
sdn lugng ngii cdc se gidm 2,1%) vdo nam
2009 do dien tfch canh tac gidm Tuy vdy, su
suy gidm ndy cd thi dugc bu lai mdt phan do
viec tang hieu qua tir viec khdng canh tdc
nhirng dien tich dat kem mdu md Do vay,
gid ngli cdc du dodn se cao hon, dan tdi viec
md rdng dien tich trdng ngu cdc (n, /d lua mi) San lugng Ma ma-1 den "=^-u manh (khodng 10%))
Tdng tieu diing vd xudt khdu ngu cdc dugc duy tri d muc tuang duong vdi gia dugc dua ra trong Chuang trinh Nghi su nam
2000 hoac giam nhe, do vdy duy tri dugc su can bang tren thi trudng ngii cdc EUI5 Gia ngii cdc du dodn ciing gdn nhu khdng tang nhieu
Bdng 2 : Tac dong ciia cai each CAP nam 2003 doi vdi thj truo'ng ngu coc EU15
giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010
(Dan vi: triiu tdn)
San luong
Tieu dung
Xuat khau
2004/05
208.4 -2.7%
193.9 0.1%
29.3 -2.1%
2005/06
2I0.I -2.6%
194.0 -0.3%
29.0 -3.5%
2006/07
214.6 -2.1%
195.6 -0.4%
30.0 -2.2%
2007/08
216.0 -2.1%
196.3 -0.6%
30.0 -4.5%
2008/09
219.9 -1.5%
198.9 -0.3%
30.9 -2.8%
2009/10
220.0 -2.1% 199.2 -0.6% 30.9 -4.7%
Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 7
Neu xet tdng the cdc nudc EU25, nam ciia EU25 se vdo khodng 54,7 trieu ha Mot
2006, sdn lugng ngii cdc EU25 sdn xuat ra trong nhirng yeu td dan den tinh trang nay la dugc du doan tang khoang 30%, trong khi bdi tfnh canh tranh giira cay trdng cung cap dien tich canh tac ngQ cdc tang 42%, sdn nang lugng vdi ngii cdc do su thay ddi cua lugng hat lay ddu tang 25%o trong khi dien nhirng dilu kien han cbl san xudt tren ca sd tich canh tdc cay hat ldy ddu tang 37%) Cac tu nguyen Viec hd trg true tilp dudi dang
dl xuat trong Cdi each CAP nam 2003 Id thanh toan cho timg trang trai, ddc lap vdi
gidm dien tfch canh tdc ndng nghiep xudng quy md san xudt khien cho ''« ^f^]^ ^g^^ ^j^g
khoang 4-5% so vdi cac chinh sdch cua san xudt tren ca sd tu nguyen chi o ru'c ban Chuang trinh nghi sir 2000, do vdy din nam cbl, chii yeu Id dp dung ddi vdi nhiin; Hen
2009, tdng dien tfch canh tac ndng nghiep tfch trudc dd dugc trdng lua my vd lun.,- v,_
Trang 4^de itaitg, eua edi edeh 39
Bang 3: Tac dong cua CAP 2003 ddn phan bd dien tich canh tac cua EU25
giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010
(Dem vi: trieu ha)
Ngii coc
Liia my
Lua mach
Ngo
Liia mach
den
Hat ldy
dau
2004/05
54.6
-5.1%
20.9
-1.8%
13.3
-3.5%
6.2
-2.8%
2.4 -24.0%
6.8
0.5%
2005/06
54.5
-4.9%
21.6
1.2%
13.7
0.4%
6.2
-3.0%
2.7
-14.6%
6.9
1.9%
2006/07
54.5
-4.3%
21.7
1.9%
13.6
1.0%
6.2
-2.8%
2.7 -12.0%
6.9
2.7%
2007/08
54.6
-4.2%
21.8
1.9%
13.4
1.2%
6.2
-2.9%
2.7
-10.6%
6.9
3.1%
2008/09
54.6
-4.2%
21.9
1.9%
13.3
1.4%
6.2
-2.9%
2.7
-10.9%
6.9
3.5%
2009/10
54.7
-4.1%
22.1
2.0%
13.2
1.6%
6.2
-2.9
2.7
-11.0%
6.9
3.9%
Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 12
Dien tfch canh tac ngii cdc cua EU25 du
dodn se tang len, trong dd dien tfch canh tdc
Ilia my la ldn nhdt San lugng liia mach dugc
du doan Id se tang do cac nudc thdnh vien
mdi gia nhap Du bdo cd nhirng tdc ddng rdt
tfch cue ddi vdi gid hat lay ddu, khiln EU25
tiep tuc md rdng them 3,9%) tdng dien tfch canh tdc trong nam 2009, vd nhu vay, dien tfch canh tdc loai cay trdng ndy tang tir 6,8 trieu hecta nam 2002 len 6,9 trieu hecta nam
2009
Bdng 4: Tac dong cua CAP 2003 den san luotig ngu cdc cua EU25,
giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010
(Dan vi: triiu tdn)
San Iiro'ng
Tieu diing
Thang du
thi truo'ng
2004/05 262.6 -4.6%
248.7 0.5%
14.0 -11.73
2005/06 268.9 -3.3%
251.4 0.9%
17.4 -9.32
2006/07 271.7 -3.0%
252.7 1.0%
19.0 -8.65
2007/08 274.7 -3.0%
251.7 0.8%
22.9 -8.40
2008/09 277.5 -3.2%
253.3 0.7%
24.2 -8.76
2009/10 280.4 -3.2% 255.6 0.7% 24.9 -9.00
Trang 540 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 ( H ?? LH
San lugng liia my cua EU25 cd the dat
131,4 trieu tdn trong nam 2009, tang 1,2 %
so vdi du bdo trong Chuong trinh nghi sir
2000 San lugng liia mach nam 2009 dat
57,8 trieu tdn, xap xi rnirc dua ra trong
Chuang trinh nghi sir 2000 San lugng liia
mach den gidm 20%) Lugng lua mach den
du thira se gidm manh so vdi Chuang trinh
nghi sir 2000 vd lugng du trir tfch My
khodng 7-8 trieu tan se dugc giam dan nhd
xuat khdu ra thi trudng the gidi Tuy nhien,
do Ma mach vd lua my du dodn cd trien
vgng thi trudng tdt nen tdng sdn lugng ngii
cdc cua EU25 se chi gidm nhe
b Mat hdng thit
Viec tang gia thirc ? T ch?" ' " - gi^ sue
khiln quy md chan nudi gia siic cua EUI5 gidm dugc cho Id se diln ra trong ngan ban Sdn lugng thit bd nam 2009 cua EUI5 dugc
du dodn gidm khodng 2,7% (gidm khodng 200.000 tdn) so vdi muc cdng bd trong Chuong trinh nghi su 2000 Viec giam quy
md chan nudi gia siic cimg vdi nguyen tac
hd trg true tiep dudi dang thanh todn cho tirng trang trai, ddc lap vdi quy md san xuat
cd anh hudng tdi khu virc nudi bd sira Nam
2009, tdng sd bd nudi ciia EUI5 du dodn se gidm 3,5%o
Hinh 1: Anh hud'ng ciia Chirung trinh cai each CAP 2003 tdi san Iugng va gia thit bo
cua EU15 trong giai doan 2004/2005 - 2009/2010
2003
Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 8
Gia thdnh thit bd d cdc nudc EUI5 cd 2000 Gia tang khiln sue ieu dimg thit bd the tang maMi do ngudn cung ndi dia gidm gidm khoang 1,8% Ben cinh ac ngudn
Nam 2009, gid thit bd tai EU15 du doan se cung gidm cdng vdi gia ndi &a tang ^iJng
tang 7,1% so vdi Chuong trinh ngM sir khiln lugng xudt khdu thit bd cua E'Ji ^ ^^^
Trang 6^de ttaitq, eua edi eddt 41
2009 gidm manh tdi 26% (tuong duong
30.000 tdn)
Thi trudng thit bd cua toan bd 25 nudc
EU ciing chiu tac ddng manh tir nhirng Cdi
each CAP nam 2003 Viec hd trg true tiep
dudi dang thanh todn cho tirng trang trai ddn
tdi giam 6,6% san lugng thit bd cua todn
EU25 so vdi cdc dieu Men de ra trong
Chuang trinh nghi su 2000 Sdn lugng thit
bd d cac nudc thdnh vien cii gidm va cd the
se khdng tang tai cac nudc thdnh vien mdi,
du doan se dat 8 trieu tdn trong nam 2009,
tang 50.000 tdn so vdi nam 2004
Han ngach sira bd sung theo de xudt ciia
Cdi each CAP nam 2003 se cd dnh hudng khdng ddng kl din sdn lugng thit bd ciia EU25 Din nam 2009, san lugng thit bd se chi tang them 20.000 tdn so vdi nam 2006 khi bat ddu dp dung bd sung han ngach sira Lugng cung tang chdm gay dp lire den thi trudng, gid thit bd tai cdc nudc EU25 se tang 7,9%) so vdi viec thuc Men Chuang trinh nghi su 2000 Thang du cung thit bd tren thi trudng cd thi giam dang ke Nam 2009 xuat khdu rdng thit bd cua EU25 du doan se chi dat 0,07 trieu tdn, gidm 0,25 trieu tdn so vdi cdc dilu kien trong Chuang trinh nghi sir
2000
Bdng 5: Tac dong cua CAP 2003 den thi truong thit bo cua EU25
giai doan 2004 - 2009
(Dan vi: triiu tdn)
San luong
Tieu dimg
Thang du
thi truo'ng
Gia thanh san
xuat (EUR/tdn)
2004
7.98
-4.7%
7.72
-3.9%
0.26 -0.09
2 676 8.8%
2005
7.97
-5.4%
7.76 -3.9%
0.20
-0.14
2 632 8.7%
2006
7.97
-5.9%
7.81 -3.9%
0.16 -0.18
2 587 8.5%
2007
7.98
-6.3%
7.87
-4.0%
0.11 -0.22
2 543 8.2%
2008
7.99
-6.4%
7.92
-3.5%
0.08
-0.25
2 508 7.1%
2009
8.02
-6.6% 7.94 -3.9%
0.07
-0.25
2 490 7.9%
Nguon: European Commission
Directorate-Cdi each CAP nam 2003 ciing dugc du
doan se cd tdc ddng ldn ddi vdi nhirng ngdnh
kinh doanh thit Ign va gia cam ciia EUI5 ndi
rieng vd ciia EU25 ndi chung Gid thuc an
gia siic tang khdng chi dnh hudng den san
lugng thit bd md cdn anh hudng manh din
mat hdng thit Ign vd gia cdm tai cdc nudc
General for Agriculture (2003), trang 13
EUI5 Tuy nhien, khac vdi nhirng bien ddng manh d khu vuc thit bd, sdn xudt vd tieu diing thit Ign vd gia cam du dodn se gidm nhe khoang 1% trong trung ban Dien biln ndy la ket qud cua viec tang gid thit bd, khien mat hdng thit Ign va thit gia cdm cd sue canh tranh vl gia tdt hon thit bd San
Trang 742 NGHIEN CCfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 (1 AO
lugng thit Ign vd gia cdm ciia EU25 cirng bi
tac ddng It hon so vdi sdn lugng thit bd Sdn
lugng thit Ign nam 2009 ciia EU25 du dodn
tang 3,2 % so vdi viec thuc hien Chuong
trinh nghi su 2000 Tieu diing thit Ign tang
2,4% do gid gidm khoang 1,6% so vdi viec
thuc Men Chuong trinh nghi sir 2000 Nam
2009, EU25 du kiln xudt khdu khoang 0,2
trieu tdn thit Ign Ngoai ra, sdn lugng vd mire
tieu thu gia cdm trong EU25 ciing tang nhe
so vdi du bdo cac dieu kien trong Chuang
trinh nghi su 2000
c Mat hdng ba sda
Do tdc ddng ciia Chuang trinh CAP
2003, tdng sdn lugng sira ciia EU25 tang
1,6% so vdi mire du kien trong Chuong trinh
nghi sir 2000, dat 146,5 trieu tdn trong nam
2009 Cd dugc muc tang ndy Id do cdc nudc
thdnh vien cii tang ban ngach them 2% so
vdi cdc dilu kien trong Chuong truih nghi sir, do vdy san lugng siia trong cac nudc ndy tang ddng ke
Nam 2002, sdn lugng sira sdn xudt cho tieu diing ndi Khdi van chiem khodng 16% trong tdng sdn lugng sira cua 10 nudc thdnh vien mdi Lugng sira sdn xudt vd tieu dung ngay tai gia dinh se ngdy cdng giam do su phdt trien tfch cue nen kinh te ndng thdn va
he thdng an sinh xa hdi sau khi md rdng EU Ddi vdi 10 nudc thdnh vien mdi, tdng san lugng sira, bao gdm ca sdn lugng ban ra tren thi trudng vd sdn lugng san xudt vd tieu dimg tai gia dinh se duy tri d muc khd dn dinh dudi tac ddng ciia CAP 2003 Cu the, sdn lugng siia ciia 10 qudc gia ndy se dat xap
xi 22 trieu tan, gidm 0,4%) so vdi cdc dieu kien trong Chuang trinh nghi sir 2000 Tuy vdy, ngudn cung tir cac nudc thanh vien mdi vdn tang do ban ngach tang
Bdng 6: Tac dong cua CAP 2003 den san lugng sira EU25, giai doan 2004 - 2009
(Dan vi: triiu tdn)
San luo-ng EU-25
San luo-ng EU-15
San lugng 10 nudc
moi gia nhap
Gia thanh san xuat
(EUR/tdn)
2004
143.8 0.3%
I2I.5 0.4%
22.3 -0.1%
280.3 -5.6%
2005
I44.I 0.2.%
121.9 0.4%
22.2 -0.5%
264.5 -5.6%
2006
144.4 0.3%
122.3 0.4%
22.1 -0.4%
256.5 -2.8%
2007
145.4 0.8%
123.4 1.0%
22.0 -0.2%
229.2 -7.6%
2008
147.0 1.5%
125.1 2.0%
21.9 -0.7%
224.2 -9.6%
2009
146.5 1.6% 124.6 2.0% 21.9 -0.4% 225.1 -9.9%
Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 14
Trang 8^de itditq, eua edi eddt 43
Viec tang ban ngach san lugng sira
trong giai doan 2004/2005-2008/2009 se
tuong duong vdi muc tang sdn lugng sira
cua EU15 trong cimg thdi ky Nam 2009,
san lugng sira ciia cac nudc EUI5 se tang
2% so vdi muc de ra trong Chuong trinh
nghi sir 2000 Muc tang sdn lugng ndy dat dugc trong ngan ban, vd sau dd giam ddn do
sd lugng dan bd siia gidm Ty le cat giam manh cua muc gid hd trg ddi vdi ba vd sira bdt gdy trong giai doan 2004/05-2008/2009
se khien cho gia sira gidm manh
TTinh 2: Nhung thay doi chinh trong han ngach san lugng va gia sua cua EU15
(Dan vi: trieu tan vd euro/100 kg)
1999.'00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 20a3/Od 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2 0 0 7 / 0 8 2006/09 2ft09/fO
Ngudn: European Commission
Directorate-Xu hudng tang sdn lugng sira d EUI5 Id
do viec tang han ngach vd cat gidm hd trg
gia ba Dieu nay khien cho gid thi trudng
cua mat hang nay trong nam 2009 du dodn
se giam tuong irng (khoang 35% so vdi muc
gid nam 2001 va 23% so vdi mirc gia du tinh
nam 2009 neu thuc Men Chuang trinh nghi
su 2000) Di ddi vdi xu hudng giam gid, san
lugng ba cua EUI5 cirng se gidm khoang
2% Ngugc lai vdi gia ba thdp, muc tieu thu
ba trong EUI 5 nam 2009 du doan se lai tang
manh, dat mirc 1,8% so vdi muc san lugng
du tinh trong nam 2009 neu thuc hien
Chuang trinh nghi su 2000
General for Agriculture (2003), trang 9
Ngudn cung giam cimg vdi sue mua trong Khdi tang khien sdn lugng xudt khdu
ba ciia EUI5 du dodn giam 18% (ban 30.000 tan) Trong khi thi trudng ba td ra kem hdp dan thi sdn xudt phomat vd cac sdn pham ciia sira tuai (sira chua vd cac sdn pham sira len men) lai cd nhilu thuan lgi do gid sira gidm, nham dap ung nhu cdu tieu diing vdn dugc coi Id tang trudng dn dinh Nam 2009, sdn lugng vd tieu dimg ba tai EUI5 du doan se tang khoang 1,5%, trong khi gia mat hdng nay se gidm khoang 5,5%)
so vdi muc trong Chuong trinh nghi su 2000) Tfnh canh tranh vl gia cua ba do dd
se giam ddn tdi gidm san lugng xuat khdu
Trang 944 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°8 (11?! ?i>10
Hinh 3: Toan canh trg gia, gia thi tru'O'ng no! Khdi va gia thi gidi ddi vc i
sua bot gay cua EU15
(Dan vi: EUR/100 kg)
y C a i each CAP 2Q03 | Ch/trij*h Nghi 5^2000
Gia thi tiuooig tine gioi (Gii cao nhat & thap nhat)
Ngudn: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 10
Trong giai doan 2004-2009, san lugng thdnh vien mdi, so vdi mirc 40%) trong san sira bdt gdy ciia EUI5 se gidm 10% Cac yeu lugng sira theo ban ngach dugc dimg de san
td nhu gid thi trudng ndi Khdi giam, ngudn xuat ciia cdc nudc thdnh vien cii Sau khi gia cung sira bdt khdng kem gidm va ho trg tieu Miap, sdn lugng ba vd sii'a bdt gay se giam dung ndi Khdi gidm keo theo san lugng xudt va san lugng pho mat se tang d cac nudc khdu cho tieu dimg trong Khdi tiep tue giam
6,8% Nam 2009, gia sira bdt gdy giam 4,8%
so vdi muc de ra trong Chuong trinh nghi sir
2000
Theo cac dieu kien trong Chuang trinh
thdnh vien cii
4 Thu nhap tir nong nghiep
Nam 2009, tdng sdn lugng ndng nghiep EU25 du dodn se gidm 3,4%) so vdi miic de
ra trong Chuang trinh nghi sir 2000 Nguyen nghj su 2000, san lugng ba vd cdc san phdm nhan chfnh la do sdn lugng ngii cdc thdp ban tir sira, siia bpt gdy d cdc nudc thanh vien do viec thay ddi cdc dieu kien han cbl sdn mdi se tang do gia cdc mat hdng ndy se tang xudt tren ca sd tu nguyen va cac chfnh sdch sau khi cac nudc nay gia nhdp EU Ca cdu ddi vdi cay trdng cung cap nang lugng cQng sdn lugng sira trong cac nudc thanh vien mdi nhu gia sira giam Tdng thu nhdp thi trudng lam gia tang dp luc ddi vdi viec san xudt sd trong ITnh vuc trdng trgt cua toan bd 25 nudc Mgng ldn cac san phdm sii'a sa ehl chir thanh vien EU se gidm 1,3%), trong ITnh vuc khdng phai la san phdm cd gia tri cao nhu chan nudi, giam 6% so vdi muc dl ra trong phomat Cd din 60% san lugng siia theo han Chuang triMi nghi sir 2000 Tu v nhien, cai ngach dugc dimg dl san xudt cac san pham each CAP nam 2003 nhan manh vs-; tinh sira (ba va sua bdt nguyen kem) d cdc nudc hieu qua ciia sdn lugng ndng nghiep ,,:ing
Trang 10^de itS4tcp eua edi eddt 45
each cho phep ndng ddn bd qua nhirng hdng
hda kem canh tranh ma khdng bi mdt di
khodn hd trg thanh toan true tilp Dieu ndy
cd the thdy rd trong ITnh vuc chan nudi vdi
muc gidm tdng gia tri gia tang chi bang mdt
nira so vdi mirc giam sdn lugng Tuy nhien,
tfnh trong cd ngdnh thi tdng gia tri gia tang
gidm 2% so vdi muc de ra trong Chuang
trinh nghi su 2000 Khi viec thanh todn true
tilp dUgc dp dung vdi cac nudc thdnh vien
mdi, muc gidm thu nhdp se thdp ban muc
gidm tdng gid tri gia tang Trong nam 2009,
du doan thu nhdp ndng nghiep se thdp ban
1,3 % so vdi mirc de ra trong Chuong trinh
nghi su 2000 Ddi vdi cdc nudc thdnh vien
mdi, Cdi cdch CAP nam 2003 ddm bdo thu
nhdp ndng nghiep tang nhd viec EU md
rdng Nam 2009, thu nhap ndng nghiep ciia
10 qudc gia nay tir thi trudng du dodn se tang 17%) so vdi thu nhdp nam 2002 khi chua
md rdng EU Sau khi bien phap ho trg thanh toan true tilp vd phat trien ndng thdn dugc triln khai cd the khien thu nhdp ndng nghiep thuc t l ciia cdc nudc thdnh vien mdi tang ban 45%
Mac dil doanh thu trong ITnh vuc ndng nghiep cua toan Khdi se thap ban, nhung nang sudt tang do dp dung nguyen tac tach rieng vd viec thanh todn true tiep cho tirng
hd ndng ddn ciing trd nen hieu qud ban Day
Id mdt phdn ket qud cua viec tang cudng hieu qud chuyen giao thu nhdp ciia CAP sau khi cdi each
Bdn^ 7j Tac dong ciia CAP 2003 den thu nhap thuc te cua EU25 giai doan 2002
-Tong san lu'O'ng nong
nghiep tinh theo gia thj
truong
Tong san lu'o'ng cay trong
- Ngii coc
- Hat lay dau
Tong san pham vat nuoi
- Su'a
- Thjt bo
- Thjt lo'n, gia cam, triing
Tong gia trj gia tang
Tong gia trj gia tang d6i
voi cay trong
Tong gia trj gia tang doi
voi vat nuoi
Tong gia trj gia tang tinh
theo gia thj tru'ong bao
gom h6 tro thanh toan
true tiep
2002
97.0
I0I.9
91.7
95.9
101.9
86.6
98.5
2004
lOO.O -2.1%
lOO.O -1.6%
-5.9%
- 0.7%
lOO.O -2.7%
-5.3%
3.6%
1.2%
100.0 -1.3%
100.0 -1.6%
100.0 -0.9%
lOO.O -0.5%
2005
97.9
-2.2%
99.9
-1.7%
-5.2%
-1.1%
95.7
-2.8%
-5.4%
2.8%
1.6%
97.7
-1.5%
99.9
-1.7%
94.3
-1.3%
98.3
-1.2%
2006
96.6
-1.5%)
99.9
-1.7%
-5.3%
0.5%
93.0
-1.3%
-2.5%
2.0%
1.7%
96.0
-1.1%
99.9
-1.7%
90.1
-0.1%
97.5
-0.9%
2007
94.1 -2.2%
100.2 -1.5%
-5.6%
1.4%
87.6 -3.0%
-6.9%
1.3%
1.3%
93.7 -1.6%
100.2 -1.5%
83.8 -1.9%
96.2 -1.2%
2008
93.3 -4.1%
100.6 -1.2%
-5.9%
1.9%
85.5 -7.5%
-8.2%
0.3%
0.9%
94.2 -2.7%
100.5 -1,3%
84.6 -5.1%
97.3 -1.7%
-2009
2009
93.6 -3.4% 100.6 -1.3% -6.1% 2.2% 86.2 -6.0 -8.5% 0.7% 0.6% 94.0 -2.0% 100.5 -1.3% 83.9 -3.2% 97.2 -1.3%
Nguon: European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture (2003), trang 1